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Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

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Nekoo

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I mean, Shadow does seem like a shoo-in for some sort of "Echo Pack" DLC.

It might make more sense, from a rights/legal/business perspective, to have him be DLC. We don't know the specifics behind Sonic in Smash, and how requesting another playable character might affect that.
Iirc Sonic in Smash 4 was with an Exclusivity deal fro Sega to make another Olympic Games, Lost World timed exclusive on Wii-U with Limited in time Exclusive Crossover DLC with Yoshi and Zelda.

No Idea what was the deal with Smash Ultimate... Like, I genuinely don't know how he managed to keep all Third parties for Smash ultimate.
 

KingofKoopas

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The REAL box theory is the cardboard labo boy is the last newcomer for smash and his character portrait isn’t on there because he IS the box
If the Cardboard Box theory is true and the last two newcomers arent Ken and Incineroar but Laboman and Steve, I would crack up.
 

Thinkaman

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Nintendo, due to their large child userbase and intense legal cautiousness, is much more adverse to exploitative microtransactions than any other gaming company of their league.

Sakurai specifically is quite outspoken against loot-boxes, day 1 DLC, and other predatory practices. While Nintendo themselves sets prices (regionally), it's Sakurai calling the shots as to what products/software are being produced by his studio team.
 

Fenriraga

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The REAL box theory is the cardboard labo boy is the last newcomer for smash and his character portrait isn’t on there because he IS the box
The real Box Theory was the friends we made along the way.
 

PsychoIncarnate

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Incineroar deconfirmed

Real last 2 are Ken and Geno

TRUE box theory
 
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Omega Tyrant

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While people can argue what "we're going to slow down the pace from here on out" means with newcomers reveals (I don't see that translating to "there's one more newcomer trailer with an Echo left" but I rather just wait and see than debate the remaining number of newcomers with a couple months to go), what I found more interesting was this regarding Isabelle being an Echo:

"This is because Isabelle and Villager have fundamentally different body types and personalities, so we couldn’t have made her an Echo."

So people were right about Isabelle's body being too different from Villager's, which means body type similarity is especially stringent for Echoing to be viable (I thought there could have been some slight wiggle room but it seems I was mistaken). If a character's body type isn't 1:1 with another, you can now definitely write them off as an Echo candidate.
 
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Chrono.

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While people can argue what "we're going to slow down the pace from here on out" means with newcomers reveals (I don't see that translating to "there's one more newcomer trailer with an Echo left" but I rather just wait and see than debate the remaining number of newcomers with a couple months to go), what I found more interesting was this regarding Isabelle being an Echo:

"This is because Isabelle and Villager have fundamentally different body types and personalities, so we couldn’t have made her an Echo."

So people were right about Isabelle's body being too different from Villager's, which means body type similarity is especially stringent for Echoing to be viable (I thought there could have been some slight wiggle room but it seems I was mistaken). If a character's body type isn't 1:1 with another, you can now definitely write them off as an Echo candidate.
Aka Black Shadow echo just got blown up.
 

PsychoIncarnate

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The blog theory sure looks silly after Sakurai's comments though.

I always thought it sounded silly though
 

Thinkaman

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I mean, the entire idea with echoes is to reuse the (100s of hand-posed) animations, which are easily the most time-consuming and expensive part of character creation. Echoes HAVE to have identical rigs, plus or minus a few tricks.

There's still a lot of additional work--model has to be tweaked, 8 fresh model textures, 2D render + costumes, voice acting + announcer line, gameplay tuning, local balance, trophies, promo materials, amiibo, ect. But the lion's share is the animation.
 
D

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"This is because Isabelle and Villager have fundamentally different body types and personalities, so we couldn’t have made her an Echo."
I ****ING TOLD YA'LL BUT YOU NEVER LISTENED. I WANT A WRITTEN APOLOGY FROM EVERYONE WHO CALLED ME CRAZY FOR SAYING ISABELLE AS A VILLAGER ECHO WAS IMPOSSIBLE.
 

TheCJBrine

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Predictions:

-Incineroar
-Ken (Ryu Echo)
-Steve
-Geno as Mewtwo-styled DLC

Box Theory is mostly correct except Steve is on the back of the box.
 
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Ramen Tengoku

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Sorry but i can't find anything about the box theory, what is it? Also, what did Sakurai say in his blog what made everyone less hyped???
I believe he said that the character reveals are going to slow down or something like that.
 

KingofKoopas

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The blog theory sure looks silly after Sakurai's comments though.

I always thought it sounded silly though
People making prediction based on patterns and mathmatically predictions based on said patterns is silly, but an image of a cardboard box holding the secrets of life, the universe, and everything makes total rational sense. Got it.
 

Fenriraga

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Not to be overly optimistic, but "slowing down" reveals =/= less characters. All he's saying is they might be bundled together rather than spread out.

I still don't think we have any more than 4 total characters left, but this really changes nothing other than we might have to wait longer for the next big character reveal.
 
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TeenGirlSquad

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People making prediction based on patterns and mathmatically predictions based on said patterns is silly, but an image of a cardboard box holding the secrets of life, the universe, and everything makes total rational sense. Got it.
I mean they’re both flawed for basically the same reason, they rely on things “not changing”. Even the box theory, “all the characters need to be on the sides of the box, the render can’t change” etc.
 

CosmicQuark

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The blog theory sure looks silly after Sakurai's comments though.

I always thought it sounded silly though
To each their own, but Box Theory will always remain the silliest based on its assumptions, whereas the assumptions using the blog are much more sound. It's subjective, though, as assumptions by their nature are subjective. Sakurai's statements doesn't mean much, though--they both can be wrong, which I'm thinking is the likeliest possibility now. More than 2, less than 7.
 
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Momotsuki

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My biggest fear regarding the box theory is that regardless of whether it ends up being true or false, this thread, and likely the greater Smash Bros. speculation community will totally melt down and fall out in a similar manner to how it did as a result of Dark Pit's inclusion in Smash 4. If it ends up being true, many of those who had higher expectations will throw a massive tantrum. If it ends up being false, some of those who believed it will likely be upset over having been wrong, and most of them will likely be harassed by the group who didn't believe it, even more so than if it ended up being true. I feel like what the box theory has done is put the community in a situation where the only way out is a massive meltdown that will prove unpleasant to the point of sucking a whole lot.
 
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PsychoIncarnate

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To each their own, but Box Theory will always remain the silliest based on its assumptions, whereas the assumptions using the blog are much more sound. It's subjective, though, as assumptions by their nature are subjective. Sakurai's statements doesn't mean anything, though--they both can be wrong, which I'm thinking is the likeliest possibility now. More than 2, less than 7.
Saying one is silly doesn't mean I think the other is not silly

But for some reason people automatically assume it HAS to be one or the other and will argue based on that
 

KingofKoopas

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Before this turns into the Box Theory thread again, let me remind everyone the one thing that debunks it for sure
 

92MilesPrower

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3. The character must carry gaming history with them
Let's see who this debunks:
Goku: He's not a Video Game Character... End of Story...



And Who does it Support?
Dragon Quest Rep: One of the biggest RPG franchises in Japan
Steve: One of the most Influential games in recent years.

(yeah, we're really running of potential Third Party reps)
Let's see...
Banjo-Kazooie: Constantly requested since the original Smash Bros., and Phil Spencer is down with letting them in Smash.

Rayman: Nintendo and Ubisoft have been very buddy-buddy as of late with Mario + Rabbids and Star Fox in Starlink, Rayman and pals were trophies in Wii U, and he had a notable surge in popularity during the ballot days with the infamous ArtsyOmni "leak".

Monster Hunter: We got Rathalos as a boss, and there's still the chance they could be a character, representing a very popular and successful series worldwide.

Heihachi: If we were to get a second Namco rep, he'd be very likely. Tekken is basically the prince of fighting games compared to Street Fighter being the king, and the franchise is also no stranger to crossovers, as of late.
 

Thinkaman

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I'm still willing to bet anyone up to $1000 that the other side of the special edition box is precisely the previously listed set of characters, including Ken.

My wife was disappointed there were no takers. :(
 

Jedisupersonic

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My biggest fear regarding the box theory is that regardless of whether it ends up being true or false, this thread, and likely the greater Smash Bros. speculation community will totally melt down and fall out in a similar manner to how it did as a result of Dark Pit's inclusion in Smash 4. If it ends up being true, many of those who had higher expectations will throw a massive tantrum. If it ends up being false, some of those who believed it will likely be upset over having been wrong, and most of them will likely be harassed by the group who didn't believe it, even more so than if it ended up being true. I feel like what the box theory has done is put the community in a situation where the only way out is a massive meltdown that will prove unpleasant to the point of sucking a whole lot.
Honestly I see meltdowns happening regardless of what gets revealed.

If this and Smash 4 taught me anything it’s that Smash speculation has a lot of crybabies who want more more more and don’t actually appreciate what Sakurai puts in.
 

War Anvil

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Let's see...
Banjo-Kazooie: Constantly requested since the original Smash Bros., and Phil Spencer is down with letting them in Smash.

Rayman: Nintendo and Ubisoft have been very buddy-buddy as of late with Mario + Rabbids and Star Fox in Starlink, Rayman and pals were trophies in Wii U, and he had a notable surge in popularity during the ballot days with the infamous ArtsyOmni "leak".

Monster Hunter: We got Rathalos as a boss, and there's still the chance they could be a character, representing a very popular and successful series worldwide.

Heihachi: If we were to get a second Namco rep, he'd be very likely. Tekken is basically the prince of fighting games compared to Street Fighter being the king, and the franchise is also no stranger to crossovers, as of late.
Also, Shantae! WayForward and other workers related to this chick have had no place talking about anything regarding Smash, and Jammies Mode from HGH may have dropped a hint or two about this whole situation anyway. Coincidence? You decide for yourself.
 

KingofKoopas

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Let's see...
Banjo-Kazooie: Constantly requested since the original Smash Bros., and Phil Spencer is down with letting them in Smash.

Rayman: Nintendo and Ubisoft have been very buddy-buddy as of late with Mario + Rabbids and Star Fox in Starlink, Rayman and pals were trophies in Wii U, and he had a notable surge in popularity during the ballot days with the infamous ArtsyOmni "leak".

Monster Hunter: We got Rathalos as a boss, and there's still the chance they could be a character, representing a very popular and successful series worldwide.

Heihachi: If we were to get a second Namco rep, he'd be very likely. Tekken is basically the prince of fighting games compared to Street Fighter being the king, and the franchise is also no stranger to crossovers, as of late.
Jin Kazama makes more sense than Heihachi IMO, Devil Jin is a perfect Final smash.

But we need some SNK reps too, cant decide between Terry Bogard, Ryo Sakazaki, or Kyo Kusanagi. Anyone got throughts which of the three would be in smash?
 

Nekoo

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Also, Shantae! WayForward and other workers related to this chick have had no place talking about anything regarding Smash, and Jammies Mode from HGH may have dropped a hint or two about this whole situation anyway. Coincidence? You decide for yourself.
If HGH things is a clue, does it mean I can pull straw for the "Perfect Smash"(aka Smash bros) / Game and Watch reference game in KH3?

Yeah It means nothings, legit.
 

Guynamednelson

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Jin Kazama makes more sense than Heihachi IMO, Devil Jin is a perfect Final smash.

But we need some SNK reps too, cant decide between Terry Bogard, Ryo Sakazaki, or Kyo Kusanagi. Anyone got throughts which of the three would be in smash?
Marco from Metal Slug is more likely than Ryo.
 

92MilesPrower

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Jin Kazama makes more sense than Heihachi IMO, Devil Jin is a perfect Final smash.

But we need some SNK reps too, cant decide between Terry Bogard, Ryo Sakazaki, or Kyo Kusanagi. Anyone got throughts which of the three would be in smash?
I'm not too familiar with Tekken and how different Heihachi, Kazuya, and Jin may be compared to each other, but we could get an echo just like Richter for Simon. Dark Pit's Final Smash is likely gonna be Dark Pit Staff again, so they could have different Final Smashes.
 
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Yeah guys, newcomers will totally be bundled together in trailers even though the only times this has happened were with same-series Echoes so I guess Chun-Li and a Pokemon Echo are our last remaining options besides Ken and Incineroar
 

CosmicQuark

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Let's see...
Banjo-Kazooie: Constantly requested since the original Smash Bros., and Phil Spencer is down with letting them in Smash.

Rayman: Nintendo and Ubisoft have been very buddy-buddy as of late with Mario + Rabbids and Star Fox in Starlink, Rayman and pals were trophies in Wii U, and he had a notable surge in popularity during the ballot days with the infamous ArtsyOmni "leak".

Monster Hunter: We got Rathalos as a boss, and there's still the chance they could be a character, representing a very popular and successful series worldwide.

Heihachi: If we were to get a second Namco rep, he'd be very likely. Tekken is basically the prince of fighting games compared to Street Fighter being the king, and the franchise is also no stranger to crossovers, as of late.
Yeah, there's a multitude of third parties that carry gaming history with them. And as we've seen some, like Bomberman, have been assists so it's not like the well is running dry on that front. I still think Crash Bandicoot is the most iconic third party not currently in Smash--was one of the leading 3D platformers in the year Super Mario 64 came out, the technology at the time pushing the limits of what they could do, and was Sony's former mascot. The last part probably wouldn't be a consideration from Nintendo's perspective, but is a big deal and now possible that it's owned by Activision and its re-imagined trilogy put him back in the spotlight. There's too many examples and in fact, with Ultimate, most of the big names in Nintendo's first party library are already in, so if Smash were to continue to expand, third parties will be an important part to that.
 

Taco Cruise

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Aka Black Shadow echo just got blown up.
Unfortuntely Black Shadow is probably done now unless he's unique, which is highly unlikely unless Sakurai was adamant about giving F-Zero a second character. I also think Dixie might be done because she's too different from Diddy and her character would be compromised as an echo.
 
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staindgrey

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Yes Smash Bros. needs to emulate games that are getting near universally panned like MvCI and SFV. What next adding Loot Boxes?
SFV was universally panned for its terrible launch, but it hardly is now. Still the most watched event at EVO.

(And before someone refutes that with DBFZ, DBFZ has the highest peak viewership during its championship. SFV still had the largest view total, average views and hours watched.)
 

CosmicQuark

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Who would Incinaroar echo?
I'd be happy if it turned out Ken was a unique character and Incineroar was his echo. Not gonna happen, but it would be hilarious how Box Theorists would react if those were our only two characters and it still didn't fit their box. :joyful:
 
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