Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[Rie Sonomura]

My final predictions for base:

Unique:
- Incineroar
- Neku
- Elma
- Waddle Dee now that music theory is dead
- Isaac

Echoes:
- Ken
- Black Shadow

Anyone else (Chorus Kids, more Bamco reps, etc) will be DLC, and the Minecraft content won’t be Steve as a playable character, it will be a stage and/or Assist Trophy.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

What makes a leak fake?
One of my favorite ones is when they claim to know Sakurai's character choices.

Geno
Skull Kid
Isaac
Bandana Dee
Banjo-Kazooie

I’m slowly beginning to realize the possibility none of these characters will ever be in Smash.

 

[Paperchampion23]

I'd still expect at least Shadow and Skull Kid plus Ken/Incineroar and a Square Enix character. Moreso Shadow then Skull Kid.

I don't, not after a comment like this. Better to just hope DLC is all encompassing in the long run and those characters may play factors in it.

Just don't get disappointed at the prospect if it happens

 

[Deleted member]

What makes a leak fake?
One of my favorite ones is when they claim to know Sakurai's character choices.

When they go into excruciating detail on a Direct/reveal or on how Sakurai decided the roster.

 

[Nekoo]

Especially given that Cloud's cameos were enough to get him in a Nintendo focused game.

I'm pretty sure Cloud got in by his own Merits of being in the most influential JRPG of all time than hanging out with Hercule in the coliseum in a GBA and DS game.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

This is everyone's final chance to tone the hype down. I'm seeing a lot of that across the board, but still see a few with their heads in the clouds. We've got three statements from the man himself regarding the character count, this latest one driving the point home further.

While you don't need to actively tell yourself and others that the game will suck now, you need to stop telling yourself we're due for more than 3 characters tops. Would it be lovely for the unexpected to happen and we get more? Absolutely. But more and more things are pointing to the door closing sooner than later.

I expect our next direct to be either October 4th, 5th, 11th, or 12th. This will be a tense time but have faith that Sakurai knows what he's doing and is about to deliver unto us the greatest Smash yet.

 

[Bestmand902]

Anyways... In other news

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Aren't these the same people that said "Sony is the best place to play"?

 

[LetterO]

Geno
Skull Kid
Isaac
Bandana Dee
Banjo-Kazooie

I’m slowly beginning to realize the possibility none of these characters will ever be in Smash.

Fourth letter of the alphabet.
Twelth letter of the alphabet.
Third letter of the alphabet.

That is all.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

This is everyone's final chance to tone the hype down. I'm seeing a lot of that across the board, but still see a few with their heads in the clouds. We've got three statements from the man himself regarding the character count, this latest one driving the point home further.

While you don't need to actively tell yourself and others that the game will suck now, you need to stop telling yourself we're due for more than 3 characters tops. Would it be lovely for the unexpected to happen and we get more? Absolutely. But more and more things are pointing to the door closing sooner than later.

I expect our next direct to be either October 4th, 5th, 11th, or 12th. This will be a tense time but have faith that Sakurai knows what he's doing and is about to deliver unto us the greatest Smash yet.

Just something to keep in mind: Telling people to hype responsibly and then telling people to have faith in Sakurai are two contradictory statements.
Telling people to hype responsibly is a reminder that Sakurai is only human, and no matter how hard he tries he will never be able to satisfy everyone.
Telling people to have faith in him implies Sakurai is a living God who will grant everyone their deepest wishes for characters in Smash

 

[Thinkaman]

Sakurai: "don't expect too many new characters this time"

Kids: "here's my list of 16 new characters"

Sakurai: "we only have a few more New characters so stay tuned"

Kids: "here's my list of 16 new characters"

Sakurai: "um, no, seriously, don't expect more characters; we're gonna slow the pace down..."

Kids: "here's my list of 15 new characters"

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

My predictions for base:

Newcomers:
Incineroar
Steve
Chrous Kids
Geno

Echoes:
Dixie Kong
Ken
Shadow

Aren't these the same people that said "Sony is the best place to play"?

Yeah, They get some stuff wrong (I'd choose Nintendo or Xbox over Playstation any day)
But I Applaud them for finally doing cross play

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Yeah... we're only human. We all have different opinions. Some people might be left upset


Anyways... In other news

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They Finally Did it, Bois...
Now we're one step closer to getting Parappa the Rapper in Smash

Great, now I'm gonna have to go back to Half Life 3 as my standard "never happen" joke.

 

[Paperchampion23]

Geno
Skull Kid
Isaac
Bandana Dee
Banjo-Kazooie

I’m slowly beginning to realize the possibility none of these characters will ever be in Smash.

Don't be too pessimistic. DLC may be a huge seller for this game on purpose.

I can imagine 3 of those characters up there selling stupid amounts.

 

[Nekoo]

What makes a leak fake?
One of my favorite ones is when they claim to know Sakurai's character choices.

Geno
Bandana Dee
Isaac
BlackShadow


The holy Trinity of "I'm in every leaks ever" Characters since Smash Ultimate announcement


Also, while I believe in Geno's chance,the fact that everyone expect him start to makes me worried, it will becomes another Ridley/K.Rool/Wolf situation in Smash4.

Also like I said I throw every leaks saying they know the SE Characters if Square-Enix Employee are in the dark beside name thrown and Nintendo play fair games.

Only A Ken/ESRB situation would makes me think otherwise. Vergeben himself says he might not know the identity and that he have the list of names throw around to capture leakers.
If a Leaker says to wait the announcement, that tell you how bad the situation is.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

What makes a leak fake?
One of my favorite ones is when they claim to know Sakurai's character choices.

Ignore any Leaks with these characters:
Skull Kid
Bandanna Waddle Dee
Isaac
Black Shadow
Banjo Kazooie
Crash Bandicoot
Vault Boy
Reimu (yeah, believe it or not, she's in a lot of fake leaks)
Rex & Pyra
Spring Man

 

[BronzeGreekGod]

Not much. Aside from speculating in what Sakurai meant in the latest column.

What did he say?

Ignore any Leaks with these characters:
Skull Kid
Bandanna Waddle Dee
Isaac
Black Shadow
Banjo Kazooie
Crash Bandicoot
Vault Boy
Reimu (yeah, believe it or not, she's in a lot of fake leaks)
Rex & Pyra
Spring Man

Why's that? Aren't a number of these characters pretty high likelyhood?

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

Just something to keep in mind: Telling people to hype responsibly and then telling people to have faith in Sakurai are two contradictory statements.
Telling people to hype responsibly is a reminder that Sakurai is only human, and no matter how hard he tries he will never be able to satisfy everyone.
Telling people to have faith in him implies Sakurai is a living God who will grant everyone their deepest wishes for characters in Smash

Nah, nah not really. You're viewing everything through a roster-size shaped lens. The man can give us a spectacular game in ways other than adding more and more characters to the roster. You can simultaneously accept we aren't getting more characters and still by hyped that this will be the coolest game since ever. With all the modes and content we don't know about? There's most definitely stuff to still be hyped about. The game is not dying because there aren't many characters left to reveal.

 

[Fatmanonice]

Alright, let's get this out of the way: when people say "new", are they including echoes? If no, I still stand by 6 because I think half will be echoes. Under that assertion, yes, I only think there's three "new" characters left.

 

[Nekoo]

Alright, let's get this out of the way: when people say "new", are they including echoes? If no, I still stand by 6 because I think half will be echoes. Under that assertion, yes, I only think there's three "new" characters left.

Sakurai talked about "A few more to reveal" after Chrom and Dark Samus. So I believe he count them in. Whenever WE don't see them as newcomers or not.

 

[Chrono.]

Well this doesn't change much for me.

Was mostly just expecting Incineroar, Ken and the SE character. Still could see an echo or two after these, hopefully Shadow.

My hopes for Tails/Isaac/Lloyd have been readjusted to DLC.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

So here's what I expect and always have expected....

Unique:

Incineroar
Geno

Echoes:

Ken
Shadow (This one could change, but I don't think Ken is the only echo left.)

I've always expected 3 or 4 more characters and that is it. Also ending on a Pokemon newcomer and a Mario newcomer ends on the two biggest franchises that Nintendo has.

 

[AugustusB]

Does anyone know when the full column will be available? I am very interested in reading it.

As far as what makes a fake leak,
ALL LEAKS ARE BULL**** UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE. I will dare say to goes as far as ALL LEAKERS ARE BULL**** UNTIL THE FINAL REVEAL/DIRECT ETC.

The only reason I say that is the fact so many believed Chrom was playable during Sm4sh days until Robin was shown and we learned that source/info was outdated.

With Echos included, I still see 4 to 5 more characters, but will be satisfied with whatever the final count is.

 

[kylexv]

This doesn't change anything in regards to my predictions. Still expecting just Ken and Incineroar, with the Square Enix character being the 1st DLC character. IDK about the Minecraft content though.

All that changes in my eyes is that we'll likely not get a newcomer reveal next month and we'll have to wait until November.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

What makes a leak fake?
One of my favorite ones is when they claim to know Sakurai's character choices.

Anyone claiming a Japan only character from a Japan only series like Lip or Ayumi (note I’m not counting Lucas or Roy because their game series is already in the west; just their respective installments are Japan only)

That, or the absence of Incineroar and/or Ken. Both have to be present for a leak to have any shot of legitimacy at this point.

Also, listing DLC candidates for the base roster, like Octoling, Rex or Springman

 

[Nekoo]

I'll make my prediction:
>Ken
>Incineroar
>Maybe a random semi-clone like Isabelle with Shadow maybe?
>Square-Enix Characters being the Mewtwo deal DLC, in the first months of the game.

 

[Luigimon98]

I still stand with the possibility of 8 or 11 newcomers left.

 

[Enchess]

Anyone claiming a Japan only character from a Japan only series like Lip or Ayumi (note I’m not counting Lucas or Roy because their game series is already in the west; just their respective installments are Japan only)

That, or the absence of Incineroar and/or Ken. Both have to be present for a leak to have any shot of legitimacy at this point.

Also, listing DLC candidates for the base roster, like Octoling, Rex or Springman

Tbf, Octolings were already a thing when roster was made and there was a big thing in Splatoon community at the time of people hyping themselves up thinking they were gonna be final Splatoon DLC. Them being echoes in base isn't outlandish.

For me leaks are obviously fake if they come off as wishlist, include unique newcomers from already represented 3rd party IP, include a 3rd party that both isn't on Nintendo systems and isn't mainstream (ex. Kat Kat supporters, I adore GR, this isn't meant as an insult to it), or includes non-video game characters.

Sakurai thought process is a tricky one. People in game companies hear a lot about why decisions are made even if it's not officially shared with low-level people. Even people who would never leak in their life might gossip within office now and again. Whether thought-provoking leaks are real is more of a gut call for me.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

I still stand with the possibility of 8 or 11 newcomers left.

Bernie can still win you guys

 

[TyrantLizardKing]

I still stand with the possibility of 8 or 11 newcomers left.

Then you better not complain if it doesn’t happen.

 

[Luigimon98]

I don't give a damn, I'm happy so far.

 

[SvartWolf]

What makes a leak fake?
One of my favorite ones is when they claim to know Sakurai's character choices.

yeah, i love that one...

"Smash leak, geno, and steve are in the game
Regarding geno, sakurai wasn't going to put him on the game, but after a long talk with the square enix marketing head over a couple of beers, he started considering it on his way home... that night he had a dream where his cat was being trapped, inside a doll. after struggling for a while, he suddenly felt the sea breeze conforts him, and when he woke up, he was sure about putting geno in the game, but he never told this dream to ANYONE.
As for Steve, he was considering it when he noticed that the exact ammount of votes for him on the ballot reminded him on a cofee he got on Shibuya... while he never really admitted it, it was that that influenced him to put on teh game.

Yopu are free to not believe me... but i'm very confident on my source (which is apparently Sakurai's psycologist)"

Edit: to fix redaction

 

[DutchPichu]

Okay Steve is gone in all your predictions right now? What happened to that character? I thought Steve was a pretty safe guess, too.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

I still stand with the possibility of 8 or 11 newcomers left.

Sakurai: “We’re definitley slowing down with the pace of reveals after Isabelle”

People: “We are not even halfway through the newcomer announcements.”

How does that work?

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Also, re: what makes a leak fake

“The ESRB guy was not only sued but also thrown in prison” vaanrose debunked that a few pages back

As for remaining newcomers, I don’t care if it’s 4 or 14 left, I just REALLY want Elma to be one of them. She’s my #1 need, anyone else is literally icing on the cake

 

[Z25]

im fully expect that most of the characters in fake leaks have pretty high chances at DLC because they would be good sellers.

The 4 biggest ones would probably be:

1)Banjo
2)BWD
3)Isaac
4) Rex and Pyra

Of course a lot of other choices could sell well too but these seem like they would be big hooks

 

[ThatOneAnon]

I don't give a damn, I'm happy so far.

You know, I made a pretty controversial, somewhat intentionally wrong statement a while back that people who claimed they were still hyped for Ultimate were lying to themselves.
This statement was dumb and I took it back almost immediately.
You, however, legit come off as though you’re in denial and are trying to rationalize that there are fifty billion characters left. Then when someone tells you there probably won’t be, all of a sudden you go “I don’t care, I-I’m happy so f-far!”
You can say you’re disappointed in the final roster. No one is going to judge you, dude.

 

[Luigimon98]

Sakurai: “We’re definitley slowing down with the pace of reveals after Isabelle”

People: “We are not even halfway through the newcomer announcements.”

How does that work?

Because it doesn't mean that there will be in fact fewer characters left to reveal. It could mean the number of characters revealed in a Direct.

You know, I made a pretty controversial, somewhat intentionally wrong statement a while back that people who claimed they were still hyped for Ultimate were lying to themselves.
This statement was dumb and I took it back almost immediately.
You, however, legit come off as though you’re in denial and are trying to rationalize that there are fifty billion characters left. Then when someone tells you there probably won’t be, all of a sudden you go “I don’t care, I-I’m happy so f-far!”
You can say you’re disappointed in the final roster. No one is going to judge you, dude.

Are you trying to expect the worst in me? Think again before you assume what I believe in hype cycles.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Hey Luigimon98 don’t double post, use the edit button or the multi quote function in the future.

 

[Luigimon98]

Hey Luigimon98 don’t double post, use the edit button or the multi quote function in the future.

ok ok...

 

[staindgrey]

yeah, i love this one...

"Smash leak, geno, and steve are in the game
Regarding geno, sakurai wasn't going to put him on the game, but after a long talk with the swaure enix marketing head over a couple of beers, he started considering it on his way home... that night he had a dream where his cat was being trapped, inside a doll. after struggling for a while, he suddenly felt the sea breeze conforts him, and when he woke up, he was sure about putting geno in the game, but he never told this dream to ANYONE.
As for Steve, he was considering it when he noticed that the exact ammount of votes for him on the ballot reminded him on a cofee he got on Shibuya... while he never really admitted it, it was that that influenced him to put on teh game.

Yopu are free to not believe me... but i'm very confident on my source (which is apparently Sakurai's psycologist)"

That one's so bad it has to have been made for comedy's sake.