Going back to this point that you completely skipped over, can you describe
- How you conducted your research (including sources would be great as well)
- Any interesting trends or correlations you found
- Who you personally believe the Square Enix rep will be
I'm actually very interested in what you have to say, and I might try to do some research of my own as well.
Sure here is some of my research, please note I conducted a lot of this research
with Geno in mind. As Geno at the time had the highest chance of making into Smash Ultimate besides Sora. In order to compare fully against Dragon Quest or Lara Croft I would need to do more research as whose odds are better. The reason I did not just state Nier Automota is because 2B is already in Soul Calibur 6. I did not choose a new FF rep as they are already represented by Cloud. And the most logical contender would be Noctis, and he is already in Tekken 7.
DLC Character #1 Square Enix 2nd representative,
Sora from Kingdom Hearts.
The reason I chose Sora over Geno
#1 Sales
According to Sales data on Square Enix game franchises, Kingdom Hearts placed 4th with a total 24 million (8 titles). To compare Super Mario RPG placed 8th with only 7.42 million. Out of the sales Final Fantasy placed 1st with 144 million followed by Dragon Quest in 2nd with 75 million in sales and Tomb Raider in 3rd with 60 million sales. Please note
we do not know KH3 sales and this could cause the Kingdom Hearts Series to climb to the number one spot.
http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Best_selling_Square-Enix_games
#2 Overall Game Popularity
According to the best Square Enix games published by
ranker.com. Kingdom Hearts 2 placed number 1 on the popularity list. Super Mario RPG (the Game Geno comes from) did not place on the list. According to Best and 5 Worst games by Screen Rant Super Mario RPG placed 9th best if you factor out the worst games from the list. While Kingdom Hearts 2 placed 3rd on the list following Chrono Trigger and Final Fantasy 6. It should be noted though that Kingdom hearts placed 6th in What Cultures best RPG’s of all time and Super Mario RPG placed 5th beating it in that list.
https://www.ranker.com/list/square-enix-games-list/reference
https://screenrant.com/square-enix-games-best-worst-ranked/
http://whatculture.com/gaming/10-best-square-enix-rpgs-time?page=11
#3 Overall Character Popularity
According to Watch Mojo Top 10 Square Enix Characters Sora placed 6th and Geno placed 10th. The first 5 characters were Cloud 1st, Chrono 2nd, Maxim 3rd, Slime 4th and Nekuda 5th
https://www.watchmojo.com/suggest/Top+10+Square+Enix+Characters
#4 Nintendo Profitability
Super Mario RPG only has one title, that sold impressively and was highly praised by IGN gaining a 9.5/10, EGM 8.75/10 and Game rankings with a 89%. Kingdom Hearts has 8 titles with several remasters and a 9th title Kingdom Hearts 3 being released soon. Kingdom Hearts 1 alone received a 9/10 from IGN, 8.2/10 from Gamespot and received several awards including best story, best art and excellence in visuals. Compared to Kingdom Hearts, Super Mario RPG has has only one title and would most likely not receive a second due to it competing with the Mario and Luigi RPG’s. Whereas in the case of Sora, several Kingdom Hearts games have been on Nintendo game consoles and could potentially all be released for the Nintendo Switch.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Mario_RPG
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_Hearts_(video_game)
#5 Square Enix Patterns
Square Enix when choosing their characters to be in another company's game. They will tend choose characters that represent the company, that are current, and that will help them cross promote. Or they will choose characters with the potential of establishing further relationship with them and another company and the likelihood of new games being released together. Examples of this in past Square history are the following. Cloud appearing in Smash Brothers Wii U and this opening the door for later Nintendo Square partnerships. Noctis Lucis Caellum and Ardyn Izunia appearing in Assassins Creed Origin's helping to cross promote FF15. Noctis cross promoting in the Tekken franchise by appearing in Tekken 7. Behemoth appearing in Monster Hunter World to promote FF14 Heavesward. 2B from Nier Automota appearing in Soul Calibur 6 to help cross promote Nier Automota. Or they will even cross promote within their own games, examples FF characters in KH series and Neku from World Ends with you in KH Dream Drop Distance.
Examples of partnership games born out off guest characters, Octopath Traveler.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wah7AGkkzl4&t=22s
https://kotaku.com/there-is-now-some-final-fantasy-xv-in-assassin-s-creed-1821445534
https://comicbook.com/gaming/2018/03/09/tekken-7-noctis-final-fantasy-stream/
https://www.polygon.com/2018/7/12/1...ster-hunter-world-crossover-armor-weapon-date
https://www.polygon.com/2018/10/27/18032046/soulcalibur-6-nier-automata-2b-guest-character-dlc
https://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/113055-The-World-Ends-With-You-Invades-Kingdom-Hearts
https://www.polygon.com/2018/7/12/17563366/octopath-traveler-review-nintendo-switch-jrpg
Conclusion
Sora has more logical factors in his favor than just Smash Bros popularity. Outside of Super Smash Bros Sora is more popular, more profitable, and has more of a future as a character than Geno. Kingdom Hearts has more of a future as a game series than Super Mario RPG does. It makes more logical sense to add Sora than Geno because Sora overall would be more profitable and popular both in terms of Smash Bros fans and Square Enix fans. Finally when Nintendo makes 3rd party deals. We often see the characters are also seen as partnerships to have more of their games in Nintendo platforms or have had many games on Nintendo platforms. In the case with Super Mario RPG if it had a second game, it would most likely compete with the Mario and Luigi RPG’s as both games share characters and similar elements. Logically I do not see Nintendo wanting to make a second Super Mario RPG game because of it competing with the existing Mario and Luigi RPG games. With Kingdom Hearts on the other hand, Square Enix could import all the Kingdom Hearts games to a collection and release it for the Nintendo Switch. Also Tetsuya Nomura has expressed interest in bringing Kingdom Hearts 3 to the Nintendo Switch. All of these factors and the fact that Disney would allow Sora to be in Smash Bros Ultimate (See HMK interview) lead to him having a higher probability than Geno. Also Disney's own relationship with Nintendo is currently very high, as seen with them joining forces to promote the Nintendo Switch.
Sora aside from a Dragon Quest character has the highest probability in my opinion to make it as the 2nd Square Enix representative.
If I had to choose which character I think would be the second Sqaure representative. I would say it is Sora, despite involving Disney. Sora has the highest potential for sales as he is a more global known character. With KH3 being released around a similar time as Smash Ultimate, and Square's love for cross promoting, his chances are very high. Thank You for taking the time to read my research, and
I encourage you to do your own research and draw your own conclusions. Side note, I will be looking further into the matter of Kingdom Hearts vs. Dragon Quest to see which has the highest probability.
(Tetsuya Nomura open to the idea of Kingdom Hearts 3 being on Nintendo Switch)
https://gamerant.com/kingdom-hearts-3-switch-nintendo/
(HMK Interview)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CV76QegRezE
(Nintendo & Disney)
https://www.businessinsider.com/nintendo-disney-switch-show-2018-6
https://www.nintendo.com/whatsnew/d...nnels-nintendo-switch-family-showdown-contest