So here's a question. Let's say Incineroar gets revealed next and the banner is confirmed fake when the person who made it steps forward. Not everyone, but a few insiders think there could be a few characters on the banner who are actually in Smash.
Who would these characters be and why?
Guess I might as well answer my own question too.
Expecting:
Ken - Verge, the leaked picture, and the odd numbering on the box (yes, THAT box) lead me to believe Ken is almost guaranteed.
Shadow - Using the same logic I used to predict Isabelle, I think Shadow is extremely likely. Very suspicious that the Sonic series got a new AT and Shadow is still nowhere to be seen.
Incineroar - Not technically part of the question I was asking, but I feel like his chances are decent. The sheer number of insiders claiming he's in gives me a reason to believe in him. Not my first choice, but that's irrelevant.
Unsure:
Isaac - Relies on a lot of assumptions both ways. The franchise renewal could've just been a coincidence since Nintendo has been renewing a lot of franchises since last year, and we still don't have any definitive proof that the plant item is related to Golden Sun. I feel like it basically comes down to "he's really popular" as always.
Chorus Kids - Even though they were planned for Smash 4, I'm not going to make the mistake of assuming they're a shoe-in. It's an advantage, yes, but not every character Sakurai has considered will get in Smash.
Geno - Similar to Isaac, minus all the debatable evidence. Seems like sources are unsure who the SE rep could be. Is it Geno? Sora? Both? Hard to say, but just like Isaac, I feel like his popularity is the only undeniable evidence he has right now.
Not Expecting:
Banjo - I'm sorry, but this is a character I already had a lot of doubt in before this leak. Sources are saying completely different things, with claims ranging from "I have definite proof" to "He's not in at all". I won't rule out DLC, but as of today, base game seems unlikely. I might have thought he had a better chance if Microsoft already had content in Smash by now, but I have no guarantee that they'll even be involved with this game at all.
Mach Rider - Hurts to admit this, but this leak is the only thing giving this guy (or gal) hope. Without it, there's virtually nothing that specifically supports the idea of Mach Rider getting in Smash.