Disclaimer: This makes several assumptions about how things have been going on behind the scenes. I don't believe this to necessarily be true, but I am raising the possibility.
Early in the development of Smash Ultimate, The Pokémon Company comes to Sakurai with a selection of New Pokémon to create as a Fighter in Smash Bros, he picks Incineroar
(Sakurai has in the past told us that he has a certain amount of leeway with which Pokémon he picks).
Upon picking Incineroar, the Pokémon Company say "Well, actually, we have a plan for Incineroar being one of Ash's Pokémon in the new Anime season, can you hold off on including him in the game until Spring of 2019?"
(I know, I know, just go with it).
Sakurai is reticent at first
(he doesn't like really DLC, especially not of this nature, and we know this), but comes around. Incineroar ends up being held back for DLC; because they know that Incineroar is
going to be made eventually, they make mural artwork for him. This mural artwork is 100% official.
As the game gets closer to completion, Sakurai decides to reveal that the game is in production. The game is to be teased on March 8th.
Naturally, Sakurai creates a release schedule for the game's trailers, character reveals and Smash Directs, and hands it to Nintendo's Marketing Department. However, both he and Nintendo as a whole don't want these to leak; so, in an attempt to counter these leaks, Sakurai makes
multiple release schedules, all of which have subtle differences, and contain truths and half-truths (and in some cases, out-and-out lies). They also watch known leak sources from the past, i.e. the ESRB, like a hawk.
Some of these release schedules even come with fake Murals, to back up their veracity.
One of these fake release schedules contains something like the following:
I'll only include the Smash stuff, but assume it also has things like "Kirby's Epic Yarn ported to 3DS and Final Fantasy VII, IX and X/X-2 coming to Switch".
- March 2018 - Game is teased, includes direct confirmation of Inklings, Mario and Link.
- E3 2018 - "Everyone is Here" trailer: introduces Ridley as a Playable fighter and Daisy as a new Clone Character.
- August 2018 - Smash Direct, introduces Simon Belmont as a Playable Fighter.
- September 2018 - Nintendo Direct; introduces Isabelle as a Playable Fighter to coincide with the unveiling of Animal Crossing Switch.
- November 2018 - Nintendo/Smash Direct; introduces Incineroar as a Playable Fighter and Ken as a new Clone Character.
Notice how it's all true
right up to September, with some things also missing (like Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus and K. Rool). Maybe there's even images of the Mural (or the characters therein) to back it up; if it's the former, one of the murals has all the characters we know of now + Incineroar, maybe it focuses specifically on the place where Incineroar is, so people don't know characters like Richter and K. Rool aren't on that mural
(I know, this is the biggest stretch of them all).
Before anyone calls issue with Nintendo making multiple murals, I'm not saying they're printing them, I'm saying these are text and image documents or PDFs.
This particular list of reveals (among others) makes it's way to the people like the ResetERA group and Vergeben; as time goes on, this leak seems more and more true, to the point that these guys have literally no reason to disbelieve it any more.
And then, in late October, a French guy is making hanging decoration print-outs for Smash Bros. store fronts/conventions and the Grinch movie, he snapchats a video of his office for whatever reason, and this gets to, say, his gamer son or something, who spreads it around
(this might be the source of the "LOL **** NINTENDO" thing on the screenshots, if the person is a Sony or Microsoft fanboy). This contains the actual final roster (there's no reason for Nintendo to pay people to print out fake murals).
Naturally, the insiders are left
very confused.
One thing that might back this up is the curious gaps in Vergeben's leaks (no K. Rool, Richter, Chrom or Dark Samus). there might even be two or more schedules that he received, one that includes Incineroar and one that doesn't, but the schedules are pretty much identical. Perhaps the schedule that has Incineroar on it includes way more characters (or... is way more believable), so after a certain period of time, Vergeben comes to accept that one as the "real" one over the other schedule.
Again, I'm just raising this as a sequence of
possibilities.