Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Iridium]

Totally real stuff here, folks.

I (can't) believe this!

 

[Chrollo.]

edit: commented this without a quote ignore it

 

[Luigi The President]

And Manly Spirit was sure the Switch was going to flop.

Let's not drag the past into this guys.

I'd never wanna drag Burb that man has killed before I just genuinely can't recall

 

[ZephyrZ]

I'm the guy with glasses who knows everything and makes snide remarks at every turn. I also have obsessions.

This is the internet, so I think that actually describes a lot of us.

Although I don't even have glasses to adjust all anime-style, so I'm not really sure if I could fall under that trope myself.

 

[Burb]

Condescension ain't a good look.

Honey, I'm beautiful.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

so how much longer ya'll think nintendo's gonna keep us hanging

 

[FalcoXP]

I do not know what this "yamcha" is, but it sounds disappointing.

true

 

[Pyra]

I'd kinda rather imagine everyone as Phoenix Wright characters.

Of course, everyone here but me is Larry Butz.

 

[Jedisupersonic]

Totally real stuff here, folks.

I (can't) believe this!

Thanks I needed a great laugh.

 

[Nekoo]

so how much longer ya'll think nintendo's gonna keep us hanging

Supposedly next week or the one after is the deal breaker.

 

[KMDP]

>People still saying Incineroar will be DLC.

Are you guys forgetting about the "Missing Character"? I feel if any character it'll be him.

Apparently there are two missing characters, Incineroar and somebody else.

I don't care if it ruffles any feathers.

Lol.

 

[Noipoi]

You must be new here. Before the leak, things like this would occur about every three hours or so, before we would inevitably go back at each other's throats over a box that may or may not be a prophecy for the future.

At least this is fun!

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

That's pretty shallow minded to lump team real into a category like that, man. Just saying.

Shallow-minded? Maybe.
True? DEFINITELY.

I've called out the hypocrisy here multiple times to mixed results. People were so desperate to disprove box theory and refused to believe it in the face of evidence saying it may be real, yet people are so desperate now to prove the Grinch leak and believe it in the face of evidence saying it may not be real. Why?

Because it has the characters that they want.

Nobody wants just Incineroar and Ken. So, when something that refutes that null hypothesis comes up, people jump on it the first chance they get. It's a pattern with the Smash Bros. fandom that's been around since Pre-Brawl. The most prominent example from Sm4sh speculation is the Tower of Smash leak, which is the pinnacle of blind faith due to character inclusion.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

so how much longer ya'll think nintendo's gonna keep us hanging

I'm thinking we're gonna get something on the first week of November. So another two weeks.

 

[Burb]

Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't you against ESRB too Burb
Only asking as it'd be a funny coincidence in the end

Nope.

I was #TeamNeutral up until the magazine scan with the Tomodachi Life stage that matched the leak surfaced.

From that point forward, I was 100% #TeamReal.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

Honey, I'm beautiful.

i mean there's other words like fooled or bamboozled

this is like, the biggest rumor i've ever seen around here, and i've been around since brawl speculation (unfortunately)

 

[Chrollo.]

There’s only two outcomes to this

 

[Jedisupersonic]

so how much longer ya'll think nintendo's gonna keep us hanging

Sakurai: "So I know you all want a new direct, so i've set it up to be December 6th. Have a good day"

 

[Pyra]

so how much longer ya'll think nintendo's gonna keep us hanging

A week. A week. A we--
Okay, sorry, I'll stop

 

[Deleted member]

At least this is fun!

That it is, lol. It's much better than the atmosphere that was in here a couple days ago, that's for sure.

 

[SlickWylde]

Spoiler

Who's Abridged Vegeta.

Me! Renegade for life hahahahaha

 

[Luigi The President]

Shallow-minded? Maybe.
True? DEFINITELY.

I've called out the hypocrisy here multiple times to mixed results. People were so desperate to disprove box theory and refused to believe it, yet people are so desperate now to prove the Grinch leak and believe it in the face of evidence saying it may not be real. Why?

Because it has the characters that they want.

Nobody wants just Incineroar and Ken. So, when something that refutes that null hypothesis comes up, people jump on it the first chance they get. It's a pattern with the Smash Bros. fandom that's been around since Pre-Brawl. The most prominent example from Sm4sh speculation is the Tower of Smash leak, which is the pinnacle of blind faith due to character inclusion.

TPC I'm not intending to be rude at all but you got kinda hostile about people being on a high horse a few days ago. I'm just saying this feels as though it's along the same lines.

You're 100% absolutely entitled to your opinion but just be cautious with stuff like this.

 

[Ivander]

Totally real stuff here, folks.

I (can't) believe this!

To be fair, Smash Run kinda does function like one. Heck, there'd be alot more similarities had you'd be able to attack other people and whatnot.

Anyway, if I'm any character in these leak arcs, I'm the background guy with the popcorn sitting in a chair watching stuff happen.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Apparently there are two missing characters, Incineroar and somebody else.

Huh hadn't been able to catch up due to the amount of pages and comments being made so quickly.

If I had to guess the second it'd be Skull Kid or Bandana Dee.

 

[Heartz♥]

You must be new here. Before the leak, things like this would occur about every three hours or so, before we would inevitably go back at each other's throats over a box that may or may not be a prophecy for the future.

Not much has changed in 10 years, then. lol

 

[~ Valkyrie ~]

And they just so happen to be seven too - Octoling, Springman, Rex, Elma, Skull Kid, Black Shadow and Waddle Dee

(Pls)

Where is Dixie Kong in all of this?

Given that she was mentioned to be cut from the development, I feel like she might be very upfront in the DLC-wave. Perhaps leading the whole pack.

 

[Untouch]

I believed the ESRB leak was fake at first too, I'll admit.
When the footage came out, it convinced me it was real.
I also believed the Ken leak was fake at first before we got the full picture.

If we can get some huge revelation on the level of the ESRB video footage or the Ken picture I'll likely change my mind, but we haven't yet.

 

[ZephyrZ]

Totally real stuff here, folks.

I (can't) believe this!

Oh hey I know this is joking, but this sounds pretty cool if they make it work kind of like Smash Run-

The edge that separates Nintendo All-Stars Battle Royale from the competition is it’s respawn system. Any player that’s killed (whether by players or by Subspace) must replay the entire Great Maze level from Brawl to be able to play another match. Nintendo estimates that this will only take 1-2 hours. Nintendo claimed this was their way of “incentivizing wins.”

...Okay nope nevermind then.

 

[Pyra]

Shallow-minded? Maybe.
True? DEFINITELY.

I've called out the hypocrisy here multiple times to mixed results. People were so desperate to disprove box theory and refused to believe it, yet people are so desperate now to prove the Grinch leak and believe it in the face of evidence saying it may not be real. Why?

Because it has the characters that they want.

Nobody wants just Incineroar and Ken. So, when something that refutes that null hypothesis comes up, people jump on it the first chance they get. It's a pattern with the Smash Bros. fandom that's been around since Pre-Brawl. The most prominent example from Sm4sh speculation is the Tower of Smash leak, which is the pinnacle of blind faith due to character inclusion.

okay nevermind now i'm convinced you're actually lumping me in with people

first of all how dare you
second of all i know you're intentionally ignoring me

do you wanna have a go, ponycorn

 

[Shoopdawooper]

I'm about to head off to bed, but I'm going to write down my thoughts on a "leak" for the first time for this Grinch phenomenon, partly because I need some mental closure to help me fall asleep, and partly because I feel like this leak has earned it.

So I'm team real (I love the chill acceptance most people on here have shown so far for both teams, aswell as the sceptics, so I will definitely understand if you are team Fake, or just simply holding off judgement.) Before anyone says I want the leak to be true, I really doubt it. Yes, these are some requested characters by many people, but I was pretty much satisfied with Young Links return, and honestly, would be happy with any version of the roster from this point on.
Let me explain why I believe the leak is real.

1. We know it occurred in a real printing company, which makes this unlike other more anonymous leaks. This one has stakes, as it can be tracked.
   
   
2. The leak consists of many parts. Sure, the mural with the new characters. That is expected of any leak However, characters in the mural are all shifted and display new parts of their art, going beyond what would be required of a leak. Then there's the empty background, the printing layout, the name of the printing employee, the fact it's a snapchat video, and of course; the Grinch! It can be argued that most of these parts don't really contribute anything worthwhile to the leak, heck, the empty background actually makes it easier to debunk the leak. Why add those things when it means more work for a leaker, and less reward? Are we gamers or what? That balance just doesn't add up. And even if the leaker was some kind of mastermind who foresaw all this, and went through the extra effort to include all these parts, the mere fact there are so many parts in a leak, and we can still not debunk it adds credence. It's like with scientific theories. If two theories have the same amount of correct predictions, but one of the theories makes more predictions than the other that can yet be proven, than that's the better theory. Simply because it holds up to more scrutiny.
   
   
3. The details. I already mentioned how all the characters in the mural are shifted in ways that are not required for a leaker, and fit more to a graphical designer who has all the artworks on different layers. But other details in the mural also seem to "fit"into a narrative where they seem to have been designed and made by Nintendo staff. Things like the earth djinn by Isaac, the conductor by the Chorus kids. Even the poses and espressions of Shadow and Banjo and Kazooie seem to be very Nintendo-y (I say seem because of the low resolution). And yes, a very detail oriented leaker could have come up with all of that, but it all just seems to fit so well into what we know how Sakurai and Nintendo treat their characters.
   
   
4. The newcomers are interesting in that they also feel like Sakurai would have easily considered them, while avoiding going for just all of the most popular choices you could. If the leaker really is so insanely detail oriented that he know Smash and Nintendo's style really well, and cares enough about Smash bros to make a fake leak in the firts place, why omit things like Inineroar, and add Mach bike rider? For whom hardly anyone would be hyped if they just saw the picture without a moveset. I don't know. This isn't really a strong argument, but my point just is that as soon as I saw the characters in this leak, I immediately felt like, ; "yeah, that's totally who sakurai would pick". Just like how I always feel after I learn about these wild unexpected choices by mr. Sakurai.
   
   
5. There's an actual reason for this leak to exist if it's a real leak. The game will be currenttly going through the merchandise phase that may include the full roster, which according to the man himself would be know before the game launches.
   
   
6. The leak seems to match with other known tidbits. It has Ken. Check. It matches with the 5 more stages that may have been implied by Coro coro, as it brings 5 new franchises, as well as matching the number of newcomers to make the blog come to a satisfying conclusion at the time of launch (Blog theory)

Now to bring up some counter points and address them as good as I can.

1. The backgrounds don't match. We know that for a fact as well. I feel like this can be explained by weird things happening either in the printing process, or the compression by snapchat, but I agree with others who say that the changes seem to be just a tad too big/weird to solely rely on that explanation. However, there are many more possible explanations for this, which we can never truly know until we learn more. It's definitely a problem, but I don't see it as a leak buster.

2. The insiders disagree. Well, to this I say, I never really believed any of the insiders. There are people who are really good at poker, and in a small number of hands, are able to win each one of them. I think the same can be said about Vergeben and others who have consistently made safe predictions, essentially being "good at smash speculation". If they truly had inside knowledge, how come they still left so much that was revealed as a surprise? No K rool predictions? Nothing on the new modes, or stage morphing. Just highly requested characters. I don't know, I guess I'm just critical, and feel that with so many people making predictions, a few of them are likely to have been right all along so far, even without insider knowledge. I will change my mind on this when any of the insiders comes with actual evidence, or any form of argument that goes beyond, dude, trust me, I've been right before.


And those seem to be the main two arguments against the leak if I recall? If there's more please correct me.

In conclusion. I think the story surrounding the leak, given the leak to be true, is more believable, than the story of the leak, given the leak to be false. (I always love bayesian statistics) However, there's still so much we don't know that I don't think anyone can make hard claims at this point. But to be fair, that's what has made these last few speculation filled days so fun on this forum. So thank you guys. A few more days till 7 dec. Or like the Grinch would say: Till it's Smashmas!

Edit: Excuse my rambling and spelling errors. I should have probably gone to bed a lot sooner. But the Grinch just keeps giving.

 

[Polar Bair]

Shallow-minded? Maybe.
True? DEFINITELY.

I've called out the hypocrisy here multiple times to mixed results. People were so desperate to disprove box theory and refused to believe it, yet people are so desperate now to prove the Grinch leak and believe it in the face of evidence saying it may not be real. Why?

Because it has the characters that they want.

Nobody wants just Incineroar and Ken. So, when something that refutes that null hypothesis comes up, people jump on it the first chance they get. It's a pattern with the Smash Bros. fandom that's been around since Pre-Brawl. The most prominent example from Sm4sh speculation is the Tower of Smash leak, which is the pinnacle of blind faith due to character inclusion.

What does that make me, someone who believes the leak but doesn't give a **** about any of the characters?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Where is Dixie Kong in all of this?

Given that she was mentioned to be cut from the development, I feel like she might be very upfront in the DLC-wave. Perhaps leading the whole pack.

What I'm thinking too. She and Monster Hunter. Not too sure about Ray though.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

There’s only two outcomes to this
View attachment 172395
View attachment 172396

do i spot a hunter x hunter fan or am i out

Sakurai: "So I know you all want a new direct, so i've set it up to be December 6th. Have a good day"

LMAO. itd def leak before then

also check discord; I got further in trails

A week. A week. A we--
Okay, sorry, I'll stop

YES. I hope, just to mess with everyone, the marketing team starts posting **** from Majora's Mask. "72 hours until the next direct"

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

This anime sounds intriguing. Can any artist in this thread make a mock up for it please?

Totally real stuff here, folks.

I (can't) believe this!

Thanos Confirmed

 

[NotLiquid]

Okay, so I thought NoPlo's post was interesting, so I went ahead and played a bit with the Median filter like he did to try some things for myself. I'm gonna just put the pictures here so that they speak for themselves, they just have some stuff typed in for clarity's sake. Also thanks to Artsy Omni for his useful PSD.

Edit: Oh god I'm sorry, I didn't realize the pictures would show up this big (I wouldn't have used such a big font otherwise).
Edit2: If anyone wants me to do this with any other area of the image, let me know and I'll be happy to.

View attachment 172386

View attachment 172388

View attachment 172390

This exemplifies the problem with using trickery like this to replicate a vague resemblence to a few single areas. It still doesn't explain the area with the crystals and creates even more problems. To assume that all these elements are down to simple compression and artifacts is quite honestly really silly.

 

[Paperchampion23]

All Triple1Dee has proven is it takes less than a day to cut everybody out. And no offense meant to him, but if he manually cut everybody out like he implies he did, he did it the slow way, too. Both Omni and myself believe the mural can be created in a single workday, and we're working artists. As in, it's our job to know how fast we can accomplish a potential task.

There's plenty of reasons to believe the leak, but "it's hard to fake" just isn't one of them.

I think people are missing Triple1Dee's point. Even after spending a entire day doing this, he still couldn't manage the 1000s of little edits and movements the actual leak has.

Nearly all of the characters have changed in spacing or have been overlayed differently with other characters. This does not look like photoshop work to me is my point. But, who am I to say, you are the expert I guess.

 

[AugustusB]

You're Cory Baxter

Lol, but when I first started here I was hyping stuff up....
Of course! I forgot my old persona...

ITS YA BOI! GUZMA!

 

[TyrantLizardKing]

so how much longer ya'll think nintendo's gonna keep us hanging

Funny you should ask that, I was looking back at old Smash 4 stuff cause I was feeling nostalgic and noticed/remembered something. The 50-Fact Extravaganza aired just under a month before Smash Wii U released in North America. So I'm thinking that supposed Nov.8th date may end up true after all as it follows the same time-frame. 50-Fact was also around 35 minutes long so this one could definitely be of a similar length as well.

This is the internet, so I think that actually describes a lot of us.

Although I don't even have glasses to adjust all anime-style, so I'm not really sure if I could fall under that trope myself.

The difference here is that my entire room is made up of Lucina merch.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

Shallow-minded? Maybe.
True? DEFINITELY.

I've called out the hypocrisy here multiple times to mixed results. People were so desperate to disprove box theory and refused to believe it, yet people are so desperate now to prove the Grinch leak and believe it in the face of evidence saying it may not be real. Why?

Because it has the characters that they want.

Nobody wants just Incineroar and Ken. So, when something that refutes that null hypothesis comes up, people jump on it the first chance they get. It's a pattern with the Smash Bros. fandom that's been around since Pre-Brawl. The most prominent example from Sm4sh speculation is the Tower of Smash leak, which is the pinnacle of blind faith due to character inclusion.

When you make statements like this you imply me; and anyone who chooses to believe this leak, is doing it out of blind faith. That's pretty ****ing insulting imo.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I'm about to head off to bed, but I'm going to write down my thoughts on a "leak" for the first time for this Grinch phenomenon, partly because I need some mental closure to help me fall asleep, and partly because I feel like this leak has earned it.

So I'm team real (I love the chill acceptance most people on here have shown so far for both teams, aswell as the sceptics, so I will definitely understand if you are team Fake, or just simply holding off judgement.) Before anyone says I want the leak to be true, I really doubt it. Yes, these are some requested characters by many people, but I was pretty much satisfied with Young Links return, and honestly, would be happy with any version of the roster from this point on.
Let me explain why I believe the leak is real.

1. We know it occurred in a real printing company, which makes this unlike other more anonymous leaks. This one has stakes, as it can be tracked.
2. The leak consists of many parts. Sure, the mural with the new characters. That is expected of any leak However, characters in the mural are all shifted and display new parts of their art, going beyond what would be required of a leak. Then there's the empty background, the printing layout, the name of the printing employee, the fact it's a snapchat video, and of course; the Grinch! It can be argued that most of these parts don't really contribute anything worthwhile to the leak, heck, the empty background actually makes it easier to debunk the leak. Why add those things when it means more work for a leaker, and less reward? Are we gamers or what? That balance just doesn't add up. And even if the leaker was some kind of mastermind who foresaw all this, and went through the extra effort to include all these parts, the mere fact there are so many parts in a leak, and we can still not debunk it adds credence. It's like with scientific theories. If two theories have the same amount of correct predictions, but one of the theories makes more predictions than the other that can yet be proven, than that's the better theory. Simply because it holds up to more scrutiny.
3. The details. I already mentioned how all the characters in the mural are shifted in ways that are not required for a leaker, and fit more to a graphical designer who has all the artworks on different layers. But other details in the mural also seem to "fit"into a narrative where they seem to have been designed and made by Nintendo staff. Things like the earth djinn by Isaac, the conductor by the Chorus kids. Even the poses and espressions of Shadow and Banjo and Kazooie seem to be very Nintendo-y (I say seem because of the low resolution). And yes, a very detail oriented leaker could have come up with all of that, but it all just seems to fit so well into what we know how Sakurai and Nintendo treat their characters.
4. The newcomers are interesting in that they also feel like Sakurai would have easily considered them, while avoiding going for just all of the most popular choices you could. If the leaker really is so insanely detail oriented that he know Smash and Nintendo's style really well, and cares enough about Smash bros to make a fake leak in the firts place, why omit things like Inineroar, and add Mach bike rider? For whom hardly anyone would be hyped if they just saw the picture without a moveset. I don't know. This isn't really a strong argument, but my point just is that as soon as I saw the characters in this leak, I immediately felt like, ; "yeah, that's totally who sakurai would pick". Just like how I always feel after I learn about these wild unexpected choices by mr. Sakurai.
5. There's an actual reason for this leak to exist if it's a real leak. The game will be currenttly going through the merchandise phase that may include the full roster, which according to the man himself would be know before the game launches.
6. The leak seems to match with other known tidbits. It has Ken. Check. It matches with the 5 more stages that may have been implied by Coro coro, as it brings 5 new franchises, as well as matching the number of newcomers to make the blog come to a satisfying conclusion at the time of launch (Blog theory)

Now to bring up some counter points and address them as good as I can.
1. The backgrounds don't match. We know that for a fact as well. I feel like this can be explained by weird things happening either in the printing process, or the compression by snapchat, but I agree with others who say that the changes seem to be just a tad too big/weird to solely rely on that explanation. However, there are many more possible explanations for this, which we can never truly know until we learn more. It's definitely a problem, but I don't see it as a leak buster.
2. The insiders disagree. Well, to this I say, I never really believed any of the insiders. There are people who are really good at poker, and in a small number of hands, are able to win each one of them. I think the same can be said about Vergeben and others who have consistently made safe predictions, essentially being "good at smash speculation". If they truly had inside knowledge, how come they still left so much that was revealed as a surprise? No K rool predictions? Nothing on the new modes, or stage morphing. Just highly requested characters. I don't know, I guess I'm just critical, and feel that with so many people making predictions, a few of them are likely to have been right all along so far, even without insider knowledge. I will change my mind on this when any of the insiders comes with actual evidence, or any form of argument that goes beyond, dude, trust me, I've been right before.

And those seem to be the main two arguments against the leak if I recall? If there's more please correct me.

In conclusion. I think the story surrounding the leak, given the leak to be true, is more believable, than the story of the leak, given the leak to be false. (I always love bayesian statistics) However, there's still so much we don't know that I don't think anyone can make hard claims at this point. But to be fair, that's what has made these last few speculation filled days so fun on this forum. So thank you guys. A few more days till 7 dec. Or like the Grinch would say: Till it's Smashmas!

hun i appreciate your effort but please work on the formatting some more. You don't have to double space but

1. lists
2. can help