Alright, well my friends, I told you I'd get to making a post about this, and with over 600 people viewing this thread I figure I'll make my post finally. There's been a lot of information to digest, and after a long day I've finally made it home.
That said, let's dig right into this leak!
The first thing I will say is this. I've heard some things from some different people. I'm not going to say who or what those people or tidbits are but I've been pretty much looking at this all day, trying to look at it objectively. I've grown quite attached to the idea of Incineroar in Smash, mainly because of the playstyle and it was something...different.
I woke up early this morning and saw this leak on here and in Discord. I figured it was another fake until I really looked at it. There are blobs assumed to be Shadow, Geno, Ken, Chorus Men, Mach Rider, Banjo & Kazooie, and Isaac...my mind had to have been playing tricks on me. I looked at the pictures again and again. I tried to find faults with stuff. I'll even admit that I'm not an expert when it comes to leakbusting, but I've discussed it with people who are definitely better at that than me. It's becoming hard for me to say I think it's fake.
I don't. I'm leaning toward the idea that this leak, this bombshell, is real.
Now, by no means do I think it's set in stone. I never thought the box was set in stone, but mainly to temper expectations to avoid a salt flow. For myself, at the very least, this has worked quite well. I'm ecstatic at the prospect of this being real. I gave up hope for Isaac. Despite being a big Banjo lover, I assumed it was a lost cause and not all that likely. I've never played Rhythm Heaven, but I know there are some fans of that series. Our edgelord Shadow is definitely a solid pick, and Geno has simply surged into one of my top picks, considering I've always really, really like Super Mario RPG.
It wasn't the image itself that sold me on this leak. It's the story.
When the ESRB leak was introduced, it was shut down mainly because of the character choices. Not to say the people who posted the claims against it were foolish, but ideas that "Shulk is a photoshopped Little Mac" seemed to defy logic and look for inconsistencies or issues where they truly didn't exist. This also occurred with the fact that "Game & Watch's hand is in Wario's face, into the trash it goes". Those types of discrepancies didn't sink it.
Nothing did end up sinking that leak. Eventually gameplay videos proved its legitimacy and forever solidified it in Smash history for the fans. It will never be forgotten.
This is the type of leak that, I believe, may not only usurp the ESRB leak of that, but be one of the most uplifting leaks in years.
With the story being that this "leaked" through Snapchat because of a not-to-be-trusted friend, it sounds eerily similar to the ESRB leak. Add on the fact that the original poster could be named or identified. Then, add onto that that an individual with the same name can be found on LinkedIn. Then, his place of work can be followed to an actual place. Then, follow that to the fact that, hilariously enough, someone called his place of work, asked if he's been employed there, and figured out that yes, he had at one point been employed there. It's a compelling story.
To entertain the thought. For this leak to be fake, this particular individual would have to not only find out the name of a guy who works at a particular company, and get his name on the pictures he posted on a crappy SnapChat feed, but he would have to know that it could be proven through searching LinkedIn.
In addition, the materials to produce the fake bracelet would have to be created, and then sealed in an incredibly professional manner. The wrap it up, the creator would have to find something interesting, something convincing to get people to believe it. The Grinch shows up out of nowhere, of course unless he's our next newcomer!
Think about every fake leak that has been brought in here and laughed at or completely disregarded because it was clearly fake. They include almost all the same characters, they start with their "Uncle Nintendo" and then say, "You don't have to believe me, I don't care!" This one doesn't and, in fact, includes a completely ridiculous shot of the Grinch in the corner.
I won't go on too much longer. Bear with me.
What seems more plausible...a guy happened to place too much trust in someone who then leaked content that is sending shockwaves throughout the internet? Or that a fan or troll somewhere out there, meticulously put together fake convincing renders of about 7 characters, place them in the banner artwork, print them off to put on an incredibly small wristband/tie thing, only to post it on SnapChat?
Every other leak we've seen has been a blurry post on 4chan or some other site. Then there's also the fact that this lines up almost directly with the Chadondorf leak.
While I will not commit to a 100% "It's Real!" verdict because we don't have gameplay or video to corroborate any of this, it's pretty tough to find a plausible reason to completely assume it's fake. I'm not even going to place a percentage for "chances" of being real because it either is or isn't. But at the end of the day, I'm finding this pretty damn convincing.
If it's fake, it may very well be the biggest conspiracy against the Smash fanbase in Smash history. If it is indeed fake, I won't even cry. I'll laugh. It might be while one of my eyes is twitching, but i'll laugh.
The last thing I'll say is that if this is truly real, I feel for Sakurai. I realize that schedules for marketing are a thing, but Nintendo should have saved him from this heartache and done the reveals this month. Waiting until November was a mistake. You simply cannot beat the internet with this ****.
One last thing (I lied), remember how like a week ago that dude said there was a leak in the wild that some insiders knew about? Maybe it's this one.