Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[N3ON]

Frankly at this point I see only three ways to derail this leak:
1) An official reveal deconfirms it
2) The creator steps forward
3) An even more believable contradictory leak surfaces

Other than those, nothing stops this train.

 

[KMDP]

Yeah, street date definitely would be broken by then. It'd be VERY hard to keep that a secret.

Revealing the first DLC character literally the day before the game comes out is a great way of preemptively circumventing data-miners.

 

[Nekoo]

"unga bunga, me have insider information, cant say what"View attachment 171711
Seriously, I'm tired of all these ****ing guys contributing nothing to the leak but trying to be apart of it.

Not to be an ass, but I'm happy you're not working as a legal investigation Journalist, because you would get shoot down in an alleyway the next day.

 

[Pazzo.]

It's never been so painfully obvious to tell someone's opinions by their avatar.

 

[P1ZZ4CHU]

@Dyllybirdy advised me to share my thoughts here from the Shantae thread so here I am, what do you guys think ?

Have you guys noticed how Samus's left leg disappears behind Zelda in the "leak" ? In the actual banner's perspective, Samus seems much closer to the "camera", which means that Samus' leg should hide Zelda's face in the leak.
And also Diddy kong's jet makes a yellow light on Pitt's right wing in the official banner; but, in the "leak", that yellow light remains in the same spot although Diddy kong got moved a little lower. Pay close attention

See, this is the stuff that makes it believe me even more, because these are tiny details nobody is honestly going to catch. From what we see, someone is overlaying these already done drawings as they come out. I doubt they're going to re-draw Pit's wing because Diddy got nudged. It's tactical laziness for something you're not going to care about unless you're hunting and pecking like we are.

And Zelda looks fine, Samus is supposed to be huge, Zelda just looks smaller because of the compression.

 

[Chrollo.]

You know, an insane turn of events would be Verge being the first one to give the leak support saying “The leak was real, I was lied to about Incineroar”

I doubt that’s gonna but who thought the next big “leak” would be from the ****ing Grinch?

 

[Zinith]

It's never been so painfully obvious to tell someone's opinions by a their avatar.

Oh really? How about me?

 

[Untouch]

It's never been so painfully obvious to tell someone's opinions by a their avatar.

You can also tell if they believe the leak by the characters they're supporting in their signature.

 

[staindgrey]

did you not get a character you wanted?

Oh no, Daisy was announced at E3. I'm good.

 

[vaanrose]

I totally forgot that Nintendo actually had Xander Mobus do fake newcomers when he came in to record.

I'll talk about this point for a second, because it's used as evidence that nobody ever knows the full roster.

Xander Mobus is in the public eye. Xander Mobus gets asked questions about characters in the game, because he's in the public eye. You give Xander Mobus more names than actually exist, and you put in him in a position where he doesn't even have to lie about not knowing the roster when he's inevitably asked.

 

[Just a random scrub]

The naysayers of the leak say "Oh **** guys, that's WAY too many newcomers."

But I just went and counted all the characters in the leak.

Not counting echos (who aren't numbered like the rest of the characters), there would be only 11 newcomers should this leak come to fruition, much less than any previous Smash game.

 

[NastCF]

True, but the possibility of it all being staged, down to including things like never seen Grinch renders, and leads back to a real person hired by Bamco, is really really damn slim. The Grinch stuff especially is what adds a lot of weight to it. There's so many minor details put in there, that's it's not the sort of thing a fake leaker would even think of. Most would be content with just having the blurry, and hell, would probably share the video to prove it's legit, without showing any of the context surrounding it.. Fake leakers don't put that much thought into creating such elaborate leaks. Like, even the most convincing of fake leaks focused on seeming legit by providing really clear convincing evidence, not be leaving tracks for people to POSSIBLY follow that verify an otherwise very shoddy leak.

If this was planned to be fake, someone would have got for showing a video of the roster screen on a modded game or something, not something this elaborate with so many irrelevant details that add more validity by coincidence. Like, just think of how much planning would have to take place to cover EVERY angle perfectly so that there are no holes.

Like, it's been a whole day, and not a single hole has been poked in the leak. In fact, people have tried the obvious approach, attacking the quality of the source image (which is again why a faker would have gone for a convincing roster shot or something), or trying to refute it by comparing it to (shoddy) "insider" info.

Do you see what I mean?

What it would take to fake this, requires some next level 4D chess tier thinking due to how clever and manipulative it is in order to validate itself. And despite such tight planning, at least ONE hole would have cropped up by now.

Thing is you say a fake leaker wouldn't go to such lengths, but who's to say they couldn't? I remember a similar argument being used for the Spring Man and Decidueye leak way back then, and that turned to be fake. I'm not saying it's likely that someone did go to such lengths just for a fake, but I think it's possible enough for me to be skeptical of the leak.

Besides, people HAVE poked holes: for instance, there's no proof that the name we see in the photo belongs to the person taking said photo. Again, not solid proof that it's fake, but it's certainly a point against it.

 

[Untouch]

You know, an insane turn of events would be Verge being the first one to give the leak support saying “The leak was real, I was lied to about Incineroar”

I doubt that’s gonna but who thought the next big “leak” would be from the ****ing Grinch?

I kinda want him to do this to see the community instantly turn 180 on their opinions of him.

 

[Honest Slug]

If this is true this is probably the only time the final roster is more accurate to my wishlist than my predictions.

 

[The DanMan051]

The naysayers of the leak say "Oh **** guys, that's WAY too many newcomers."

But I just went and counted all the characters in the leak.

Not counting echos (who aren't numbered like the rest of the characters), there would be only 11 newcomers should this leak come to fruition, much less than any previous Smash game.

5 unique newcomers, including 2 third parties, in one Direct is more where the objection is at.

 

[Thirdkoopa]

I'll talk about this point for a second, because it's used as evidence that nobody ever knows the full roster.

Xander Mobus is in the public eye. Xander Mobus gets asked questions about characters in the game, because he's in the public eye. You give Xander Mobus more names than actually exist, and you put in him in a position where he doesn't even have to lie about not knowing the roster when he's inevitably asked.

man if only we got you to do the voice acting

 

[Penroze]

It's never been so painfully obvious to tell someone's opinions by their avatar.

I dunno man, I think you'll be hard-pressed to find out who I support.

 

[Chrollo.]

I kinda want him to do this to see the community instantly turn 180 on their opinions of him.

The fact that he hasn’t said anything yet is weird. He immediately responded to the music theory iirc, and idk about the box theory though. I don’t think Verge is that bad but I feel like he’s checking with every single source imaginable right now.

 

[staindgrey]

If Sora’s revealed at the VGAs then I feel like he’d be DLC. I don’t think they’re gonna reveal the last fighter a literal day before the game drops.

They're not announcing anything in the base game at the VGAs. It will already be out in Japan by the time it airs.

Remember time zones, everyone.

 

[Potato_]

Don’t take this the wrong way guys but Smash Ultimate speculation has been the definition of “****show” ....... to a T. I love it but seriously, aren’t people’s necks getting hurt from looking back and forth between leaks and rumors like...every 20 minutes? It’s like a tug of war with us in the middle between “credible” leakers.

Brawl had it’s cringe moments as did Smash 4 but this...... it’s a whole different playing field and one I am unfamiliar to.

I think it's because of the very short time between announcement and release.

Basically all of the insanity got condensed into such a short time. Combine that with how common the announcements were and just how many more fake leaks there were this time around and yeah, it was crazy. And it's not even over yet.

It's been like 5 months but it feels like a year or two in "speculation time".

 

[Honest Slug]

5 unique newcomers, including 2 third parties, in one Direct is more where the objection is at.

They revealed 5 newcomers in a 25 minute direct. We had a 40 minute Smash direct in 2014. It's definitely possible to do, especially if they reveal them back-to-back like they usually do with E3.

 

[TheBazry64]

Its been a long time Smashboards but here i am again!
I was abscent since like 2015 because i felt i couldn't bring anything to the discussions but was always there to read.
However the leak gained my attention a few hours ago and since i live in Germany (like 10km away from France, i know a lot of people from there who are like "Big" into snapchat with many points and that. So i asked literally everyone i knew if they got this snap.
And now THERE YOU go! Not only one but TWO of my Snapchat friends confirmed me after like half an hour of asking their friends, that the Snap happened 1000% guaranteed!!!

I am not into analysing graphics so if that helps someone to tell if the leak itself is real or not go ahead i will gladly listen to anything (PLS prove it so i can have my boi Banjo)

 

[Arcanir]

Honestly, I'd love to be a fly on the walls of the leakers like Imran at the moment. It's clear that they know something, but can't say due to the nature of their roles and who they'd be risking, and while it's understandable it doesn't make for good speculation when the only major counterpoint to the leak is functionally hearsay for many. We need something concrete to at least understand why this leak may be fake in their eyes, but since they can't give it we're stuck in a stilted debate.

Even if it's just a small good hint that would help since at least then we have a point of discussion, relying on brief statements definitely won't cut it here.

 

[Pazzo.]

I dunno man, I think you'll be hard-pressed to find out who I support.

Hmm...

Little Mac?

 

[IanTheGamer]

With the kind of outcry Waluigi's supporters brought up and with a lot of potential DLC fighters already playable, it might be possible for some ATs like Waluigi or Krystal to be promoted to full fighters via DLC (I'm not holding my breath on it, but with Sakurai, you really never know)

 

[Deleted member]

Insiders going against the leak damages it a lot, but I truly wonder if it’s because their sources have straight up seen the roster and said that’s not it or if it’s because they all heard Incineroar. At this point everyone is just saying “trust me”, besides that one guy who straight up admitted it’s because Incineroar isn’t in it. I understand not wanting to put your source in jeopardy but come on, “just trust me” isn’t a solid argument.

It doesn't damage the leak at all. They've provided ZERO evidence. Like, ever. If anything, the leak totally discredits all of them.

Frankly at this point I see only three ways to derail this leak:
1) An official reveal deconfirms it
2) The creator steps forward
3) An even more believable contradictory leak surfaces

Other than those, nothing stops this train.

4. The Grinch promo stuff is shown to be very different from what we see in the leak.

 

[kirbsmash]

Okay, this is clearly going nowhere.
Both sides have an point in this. It does looked too good to be true, but I'm not going to be an jerk about it. I am just....waiting for the game to be dropped.

 

[Graizen]

Funny , people think this is fake becouse it have 5 Characters and its good?

My god hahahaha

 

[Gerrothorax]

It's never been so painfully obvious to tell someone's opinions by their avatar.

Yeah who would've ****ing thought that people support leaks that include the characters they want?

 

[Confirmation]

The fact that he hasn’t said anything yet is weird. He immediately responded to the music theory iirc, and idk about the box theory though. I don’t think Verge is that bad but I feel like he’s checking with every single source imaginable right now.

He responded to box theory relatively quickly to say he couldn't debunk it.

This leak is basically a huge call out on Verge. Not sure if he'd try to fight this with just text

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I got a good positive spin for this

I’m leaning toward real (ESRB 2.0) but assuming fake just be prepared for disappintment

But look at this way

If real best base roster ever

If fake we get to still be surprised on the rest of the characters

It’s a win win situation (for me if nobody agrees)

 

[Jigglymaster]

They revealed 5 newcomers in a 25 minute direct. We had a 40 minute Smash direct in 2014. It's definitely possible to do, especially if they reveal them back-to-back like they usually do with E3.

Two of which were echos, so they didn't need special trailers to go with them. The third one came in the same trailer as the newcomer from the same series. Personally? I don't see Mach Rider, Banjo, Isaac, Geno, and Chorus Kids sharing any trailers together, they have nothin in common.

 

[ChocolatGelgato]

i want geno but i'm just nibbling atm rather than full taking the bait.

As i said before, someone will eventually provide an ultimatum on this, this ****'s too big to stick around for long without being revealed scooby doo style on one way or the other.

and honestly if it's fake? i dont blame myself too much, they did a good job, this and the old karate joe memories leak are the only 2 picture leaks with enough salt for me to actually be interested until karate joe was disproven (and maybe/maybe not grinch leak).

 

[The DanMan051]

They revealed 5 newcomers in a 25 minute direct. We had a 40 minute Smash direct in 2014. It's definitely possible to do, especially if they reveal them back-to-back like they usually do with E3.

That was only a single newcomer, Greninja.

And 3 of the ones shown in the August Direct were Echoes. Not the same thing as 5 unique newcomers.

 

[Confirmation]

Yeah who would've ****ing thought that people support leaks that include the characters they want?

I can't wait for Budgett Frog Hermit Crab to be in Smash

 

[Honest Slug]

Let me just say this.

I put more faith into something that actually has visual evidence more than someone saying "I have insider information plz believe me."

 

[Penroze]

Hmm...

Little Mac?

Wow, you got it.

Guys it's painfully obvious that Little Mac will be in Ultimate. He's in like 90% of the leaks

 

[Noipoi]

It's never been so painfully obvious to tell someone's opinions by their avatar.

Ooh~ Me next!
What's my opinion?

 

[amazonevan19]

Its been a long time Smashboards but here i am again!
I was abscent since like 2015 because i felt i couldn't bring anything to the discussions but was always there to read.
However the leak gained my attention a few hours ago and since i live in Germany (like 10km away from France, i know a lot of people from there who are like "Big" into snapchat with many points and that. So i asked literally everyone i knew if they got this snap.
And now THERE YOU go! Not only one but TWO of my Snapchat friends confirmed me after like half an hour of asking their friends, that the Snap happened 1000% guaranteed!!!

I am not into analysing graphics so if that helps someone to tell if the leak itself is real or not go ahead i will gladly listen to anything (PLS prove it so i can have my boi Banjo)

tbh before I ask I should check your post history to see if you're just trolling

 

[Spatman]

Thing is you say a fake leaker wouldn't go to such lengths, but who's to say they couldn't? I remember a similar argument being used for the Spring Man and Decidueye leak way back then, and that turned to be fake. I'm not saying it's likely that someone did go to such lengths just for a fake, but I think it's possible enough for me to be skeptical of the leak.

Besides, people HAVE poked holes: for instance, there's no proof that the name we see in the photo belongs to the person taking said photo. Again, not solid proof that it's fake, but it's certainly a point against it.

mmm, but the Spring Man and Decidueye leak needed quite work, yes, but at the same time the result was of very bad quality.
That leak wasn't credible either for a second, for me