Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Michael the Spikester]

Assuming my prediction is right. This is my hopeful final prediction for DLC.

Unique:
Bandana Dee
Banjo-Kazooie or Rayman
Isaac
Rex & Pyra
Spring Man

Echo Fighters:
Black Knight (Since I predict it'll be Impa now)
Felix
Medusa
Ribbon Girl
Octoling (Same as Black Knight)

Man 90 characters would be such a dream...

Skull Kid I'm feeling is probably gonna be a boss unfortunately but that's just my bet.

 

[Starbound]

Honestly, this is a bit of a confusing read, and I'm pretty sure it's not all correct, maybe.
So let me see if I understand your comment correctly.

Smash Ultimate has 9 newcomers so far: 4 Echoes and 5 originals.
Even if you include returning veterans in that number, that only brings it up to 15. And if you include PT as 3 instead of 1, that instead makes it 17. One short of 18.

Brawl had 16 newcomers. If you count PT as 3, then Brawl had 18.

That means that Brawl added 18 characters. The reason that it's only 13 more total is because 5 characters were also removed at the same time.

The same can be said about how you Have Smash 4 listed as 12, despite the fact that Pre-DLC Smash 4 actually added 17 additional characters, and brought back 1 previous cut. So Smash 4's Pre-DLC character number additions is actually also 18. DLC is a bit weird, since Lucas was in Brawl, but basically, it added 7 characters. Which brings Smash 4 up to 25 total additions.

If Ken and Incineroar get added, (or any two characters really), then Ultimate will have 19 additional characters, one more than 18. Which will put it over Brawl and Initial-Smash 4 by one.
In order to surpass Smash 4's total however, we'd need to get at least 7 DLC characters. Just as Smash 4 did. Or more, of course.

Is this what you're saying?

Kinda.

I'm not talking about newcomers. I'm talking about net gain of characters, or how much the roster increased in size between games.

Ultimate does have 18 though: . That's 15. Add Isabelle, Ken and Incineroar and you have 18.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

A million times this ^. Until 'The Box' is shown in its full glory (back and both sides) this is all speculation and certainly not the final nail to our character speculating.

Maybe the original 8 are on the back of the box in a row?
-Gives us 10 more characters to look forward to.

The original 8 could be on the back and those blank spaces are just there for ***** and giggles
-That gives us 8 more characters to look forward to.

Maybe I am crazy? But in the end, we're all a little crazy.

All in all, nothing is set in stone until the next direct.

This song here is the thread in a nutshell:

But yeah, no guarantees of this box being final. Remember when the ultimate special edition and its placeholder box initially got revealed? Simon, Richter, Chrom, DS and K. Rool had JUST BEEN revealed. Isabelle was a no-show on it.

All art is not final, which applies to anything.

 

[ZephyrZ]

Welp, if this box theory is true, then I expect our information drought to last all the way into November. October is (potentially) going to be a very long month.

 

[LetterO]

I can't believe you guys are actually already accepting there only being two more characters because of box art.

box art
box art
box art

 

[Zinith]

Hey Zinith, how are you doing?

Never better. I feel like a million ****ing bucks coming off the heels of the Direct!!!

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Lol. The box art isn't gonna spoil the amount of newcomers left. Silly children.

Sakurai working carefully to keep amounts and secrets and you just expect him to let it slip in the marketing department.

Sure. Sure.

 

[Potato_]

So why are we treating the box theory like bonafide fact already?

It's a little too early for that don't you think?

If we go throughout October and into Novemeber with NO news, then I'll be thinking it's legitimate. But there are so many reasons for this to not be true it's honestly mind-boggling that people are accepting this so easily:

1. Art team behind the box might not have all characters yet in order to prevent leaks.
2. This box art could be a placeholder.
3. We have no idea what the back or other side of this box looks like, the back especially could be hiding characters.
4. You really think Sakurai would allow a promotional box to spoil the amount of reveals for everyone? Sakurai, the guy who is notoriously detail-oriented and hates ruining surprises?


(Albeit less of a reason and more of food for thought) Really? Nintendo leaves a simple echo and a pokemon for last? After starting the reveals with INKLING and RIDLEY? Yes the reveals are often front-loaded, I'm not denying that. But especially with every new character being revealed pre launch you'd think they'd try to end their reveals with a bang to get people talking right before the game comes out, which would be the most important time to get people hyped up.

This is so reminiscent of people saying Wolf was in Smash 4 because the website boxes lined him up or some bull****. It doesn't help that the people who DO support it instantly put down anyone who tries to argue otherwise by implying their side is factual for some reason.

 

[UberMadman]

Why is Ken 100% confirmed now? If we're willing to entertain the 2nd Square rep is false, why are we not entertaining Ken being false? Why are we not willing to entertain Incineroar being false when Verge himself doubts it?

If it's because "Verge said he's confident", Gematsu said he was confident. Mother 3 leakers said they were confident. Star Fox racing people were confident. Loz said he was confident. Every leaker claims they are confident in their rumors, so why is this a special case? Why is this the one to be 100% ironclad? Why is there no room for doubt?

I’m just talking about the box here. The box has grouped characters in clumps of 9 by number, but the first time this seems to deviate from the pattern is Corrin is moved 1 spot over than he should be, which means that in the area from Palutena to Cloud, one of the characters, and only one, should presumably have an echo fighter. The logical conclusion is that Ken is an echo for Ryu. If the people making the box accounted for this, then they had to know unreleased characters, shooting down the whole “graphic design team doesn’t know the roster” theory.

 

[Pyra]

Never better. I feel like a million ****ing bucks coming off the heels of the Direct!!!

I'm excited to add Isabelle to expected secondaries honestly. I feel like you could probably end up doing cool stuff with the fishing rod.

And I'm excited about AC, and surprisingly for me, I'm excited for Yoshi's Crafted World.

 

[Deleted member]

I can't believe you guys are actually already accepting there only being two more characters because of box art.

box art
box art
box art

Why are you surprised? This is the natural progression of clouds and chairs.

 

[Misery Brick]

No offense, but what you're saying isn't based on anything.

You're basically saying that because "there COULD be more" that there's no reason to believe anything. Vergeben "could be wrong" despite not being wrong yet. If you would have read my other posts, you would know that I believe the SE character that Verg mentioned was fake, which is why he hasn't mentioned it as much recently.

The willful ignorance comes from ignoring anything I've said. I linked what I believe the other side of the box would look like based on actual information. I have linked the twitter thread that uses actual information. I am basing this all on, you guessed it, actual information.

To not even entertain the idea that this is the final roster is acting with willful ignorance. I could be wrong. Nothing is impossible. But I'm not simply basing this on nothing. I'm lining up information that sits in front of us.

Pal, you're literally basing the final roster outcome off of a unfinished mock up, which only shows two sides of the box, where you rely on one rumor, but not willing to acknowledge the rest that comes with it due to personal logic.
That's baseless in of itself.
I'm not willing to contest you, given your attitude about this topic and towards other members who've brought up evidence against this. It's not worth the effort.

Look, it can be the final roster or not. I acknowledge that.
Everyone, alongside me, is pointing to things that can outright deconfirm it, or at the very least go against it.
Going off Sakurai's statements, the mural, marketing, and Vergeben's claims I personally don't believe it.
If that's literally not evidence, or some sort of basis, then alright.

 

[Deleted member]

What information are you asking about? I can't confirm Ken and Incineroar are in the game myself, but the information lines up. Assuming other characters are in causes other things to not make as much sense. Everything else is linked in one of my previous comments. I can always link it again, but it will take me a few minutes to do.

Basically I've been saying everybody needs to temper their expectations, and no one is listening. That's mainly why I'm posting what I'm posting.

While there is information that leans towards and makes it likely, is there anything that makes it 100%? You said in your post that these things were facts, which implies that there is something that makes it without a shadow of a doubt true. Your post made it seem like you had links to things that proved this outside of speculation.

There's no need to make another post with the links; I appreciate it, but I can just go find your old post.

I agree speculation should be kept with low expectations, as that will help avoid major disappointment. I believe there are only two or three more myself. However, some people in this thread are saying Ken and Incineroar are 100% and seem very insistent to shut down anyone who disagrees. I just find it interesting and would like to know why.

 

[TheNerdyOne_]

Would the promotional team even know anything related to characters?

They probably just made this mockup as a placeholder, without trying to hint anything, and couldn't find a way to fit this many characters without blanks.

Let's not pretend this isn't a possibility.

This stuff has to go into production here pretty soon. Even if they didn't know exactly what characters are in the final game, they would absolutely know the final number of characters and where each character would be placed on the box (like echoes). Like they may not necessarily know that Ken is Ryu's echo, but they would know that they have to leave a spot for an new character next to Ryu.

The css is something that can easily be resized and altered as new characters are shown, promotional material is not unfortunately. Every modification has to go through a whole process, it makes much more sense from a time management standpoint (which, trust me, is a big concern for them) to just design the box with the final roster in mind and black out characters until they're revealed.

I'm betting that we get one more direct, likely in early November, where they'll show off the final two characters. I'm personally not convinced that Incineroar is included, but I'm more than willing to admit that I just hate that idea and that probably has an influence on my opinion. Yes, this would usually make for a pretty disappointing direct, especially after we've been so spoiled. However, this direct will also more than likely detail the entire rest of the game as well, including the new Spirits mode. Playable characters aren't the only draw in Smash, I'd absolutely bet on Spirits and a few other new things being more than enough to make the last direct an extremely exciting one.

 

[Pyra]

Why are you surprised? This is the natural progression of clouds and chairs.

We can make chairs out of the boxes.......

 

[ZephyrZ]

It is hilarious that everyone is comparing this boxart theory to the ESRB leak.

Remember our last "ESRB """Leak""""?

Being skeptical isn't the same thing as being in denial.

 

[Nazyrus]

The ESRB leak was something outside of Nintendo's control. This however is WELL within their control...

The only thing pushing me away from believing the box theory is that Nintendo doesn't seem like the company that would reveal the number of characters this early before launch. They've been shifting the mural around for a reason.

I'm remaining cautiously pessimistic at this point, I want to be proven wrong.

Exactly. Also they already avoided it by having Sakurai NOT say how many characters are left. It just makes no sense to then do the opposite with a freaking placeholder box two months and a half before the release, lol.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Wheres our smash edit of this

 

[Malkior7]

How long has the SSBU Special edition been up for?

 

[Starbound]

I can't believe you guys are actually already accepting there only being two more characters because of box art.

box art
box art
box art

We're using it to forcibly temper our expectations so we avoid the massive disappointment that will come if this is in fact all we get.

By all means I think we all want to be proven wrong.

 

[Deleted member]

We can make chairs out of the boxes.......

What if the real chairs were the friends we made along the way?

 

[Tree Gelbman]

I'm someone who thinks we only have two more unique newcomers, but I think there's a decent handful of echoes (at least 3) that's not revealed as well.

Basically. There's more than two newcomers coming.

Pokemon Rep
Geno
Echo 1
Echo 2
Echo 3

 

[Deleted member]

View attachment 164352
Wheres our smash edit of this

It needs to be called "Rep, rep repping!"

 

[Kaeltor]

Y'all are gullible af. I'm not buying the box theory. After seeing the presence of square Enix in the direct, I still think there's room for a SE rep to be included in the initial release, box art be damned.

 

[vaanrose]

The box theory isn't based on Verg. It doesn't even technically require him to be correct.

Characters are divided into chunks of nine. This is fact. We can see this pattern in the side of the box we can see. Luigi is the 10th character (after the OG8+Dark Samus), and 9 characters brings us to Sheik. Then there's a gap of exactly 9 missing characters, and then we see Roy through Snake. This repeats the whole way down.

Except for the gap between Mii Fighter and Corrin, which is only 8 characters.

It's probably Ken, but it could, conceivably, be Medusa or the Pac Man ghosts or Zack Fair or whoever. As long as its an echo of one of those eight characters, it fills the gap.

That's the key point to the theory. The characters on the side we see require there to be an unannounced character on the other side in order to be listed the way they are. This suggests that the order is pre-planned and not just something that was thrown together by someone who only knows the currently announced characters.

 

[Zippo]

So why are we treating the box theory like bonafide fact already?

It's a little too early for that don't you think?

If we go throughout October and into Novemeber with NO news, then I'll be thinking it's legitimate. But there are so many reasons for this to not be true it's honestly mind-boggling that people are accepting this so easily:

1. Art team behind the box might not have all characters yet in order to prevent leaks.
2. This box art could be a placeholder.
3. We have no idea what the back or other side of this box looks like, the back especially could be hiding characters.
4. You really think Sakurai would allow a promotional box to spoil the amount of reveals for everyone? Sakurai, the guy who is notoriously detail-oriented and hates ruining surprises?


(Albeit less of a reason and more of food for thought) Really? Nintendo leaves a simple echo and a pokemon for last? After starting the reveals with INKLING and RIDLEY? Yes the reveals are often front-loaded, I'm not denying that. But especially with every new character being revealed pre launch you'd think they'd try to end their reveals with a bang to get people talking right before the game comes out, which would be the most important time to get people hyped up.

This is so reminiscent of people saying Wolf was in Smash 4 because the website boxes lined him up or some bull****. It doesn't help that the people who DO support it instantly put down anyone who tries to argue otherwise by implying their side is factual for some reason.

Many are already in the doom and gloom phase. It's really disappointing to see.

 

[Nap_]

The strongest point in boxart theory is that in the other side there's one unrevealed echo between Palutena and Cloud. If it misses Isabelle or whatever pattern, it could be OK, it's just a WIP, more characters left, but... Seems pretty solid.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Given my beliefs of the css only having space for two more unique characters. It makes sense to me. I think they are onto something wirh the box.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Since I've finally for good concluded what I'm officially hoping is the final roster especially since I don't believe in the box theory. How would you guys be satisfied with these picks?

Base:
Uniques:
Geno
Incineroar

Echo Fighters:
Dixie Kong
Impa
Ken
Shadow

DLC:
Uniques:
Bandana Dee
Banjo-Kazooie or Rayman
Isaac
Rex & Pyra
Spring Man

Echo Fighters:
Black Knight
Felix
Medusa
Octoling
Ribbon Girl

 

[papagenos]

the box HAS to be updated to add isabelle and fill in those spots right?

so its pretty much confirmed it isnt the final box art.

which means it will be changed. so if its going to update to add isabelle then its can update to add any amount of characters, even the back of the box could have some characters on it too.

basically i dont believe the box theory.

 

[KingIceSonic]

I don't believe the box theory.
Verge said we are getting Ken, Gen 7 Pokemon, and another SE rep(That is 3)

The Dante leaker said we will get Ken,Incineroar, and Dante(That is also 3)

That is two somewhat credible leakers giving us 3 newcomers, so idk

 

[Pyra]

It is hilarious that everyone is comparing this boxart theory to the ESRB leak.

Remember our last "ESRB """Leak""""?

Being skeptical isn't the same thing as being in denial.

Wario is most certainly not in the game. Get with it, everyone.

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

The box theory isn't based on Verg. It doesn't even technically require him to be correct.

Characters are divided into chunks of nine. This is fact. We can see this pattern in the side of the box we can see. Luigi is the 10th character (after the OG8+Dark Samus), and 9 characters brings us to Sheik. Then there's a gap of exactly 9 missing characters, and then we see Roy through Snake. This repeats the whole way down.

Except for the gap between Mii Fighter and Corrin, which is only 8 characters.

It's probably Ken, but it could, conceivably, be Medusa or the Pac Man ghosts or Zack Fair or whoever. As long as its an echo of one of those eight characters, it fills the gap.

That's the key point to the theory. The characters on the side we see require there to be an unannounced character on the other side in order to be listed the way they are. This suggests that the order is pre-planned and not just something that was thrown together by someone who only knows the currently announced characters.

Technically speaking isn't it in direct contrast to the Verg leak as he predicts 3 more at least while this indicates 2?

 

[DraginHikari]

if discussion of the box theory gets continually enforced throughout waiting for reveals, I am probably gonna take a break from this site (And the Source Gaming Discord and go watch/read some anime/manga and study for classes. I am very open to the box theory, but I do not wanna hear the same thing all over again, continually being told to face reality for the next three months if that is all discussion is going to be. Reading people's theories about the roster being pure ballot was already annoying enough prior to Isabelle's reveal. Speculation is gonna go from interesting to the most uninteresting thing to talk about ever.

It basically what tends to happen when discussion is driven entirely by leaked information and that information starts dying off and becomes more centralized.

Frankly if these theories play out Smash Ultimate newcomer list will be the oddest of the bunch me. The first half of the announcement being interesting and exciting, while the last half seem rather meh to me personally. It is what it is I suppose.

I'm not really sold on the whole thing at this point, but to say there's no logic at all to it would be lying.

 

[Deleted member]

Since I've finally for good concluded what I'm officially hoping is the final roster especially since I don't believe in the box theory. How would you guys be satisfied with these picks?

Base:
Uniques:
Geno
Incineroar

Echo Fighters:
Dixie Kong
Impa
Ken
Shadow

DLC:
Uniques:
Bandana Dee
Banjo-Kazooie or Rayman
Isaac
Rex & Pyra
Spring Man

Echo Fighters:
Black Knight
Felix
Medusa
Octoling
Ribbon Girl

Only satisfied if Isaac has his beard.

I was already content at E3, so anything since then has been icing on the cake.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

This is a crazy theory, but i'm gonna say it anyways... I assume at least a couple characters won't be on the box to Simulate Unlockables, They will be announced before launch, but be some of the last characters announced. This can also be used to surprise some kids and new fans who didn't keep up with news and will be surprised at their inclusion just because they didn't see them on the box. Sure, Ken and Incineroar could be on the box, but maybe characters like Shadow and Geno will be announced a bit latter to simulate Unlockables. Sakurai still likes the Idea of Secret Characters, But the ESRB leak, has made him cautious and he just decides to announce these characters at the final direct or something like that. A really stretchy theory, but it's worth noting...

 

[Chrono.]

The box theory isn't based on Verg. It doesn't even technically require him to be correct.

Characters are divided into chunks of nine. This is fact. We can see this pattern in the side of the box we can see. Luigi is the 10th character (after the OG8+Dark Samus), and 9 characters brings us to Sheik. Then there's a gap of exactly 9 missing characters, and then we see Roy through Snake. This repeats the whole way down.

Except for the gap between Mii Fighter and Corrin, which is only 8 characters.

It's probably Ken, but it could, conceivably, be Medusa or the Pac Man ghosts or Zack Fair or whoever. As long as its an echo of one of those eight characters, it fills the gap.

That's the key point to the theory. The characters on the side we see require there to be an unannounced character on the other side in order to be listed the way they are. This suggests that the order is pre-planned and not just something that was thrown together by someone who only knows the currently announced characters.

So what you're saying is Shadow still livin.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Only satisfied if Isaac has his beard.

Could always be a costume along with Matthew.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Space foe echo ken. Space for isabelle.
Space for inceniroar.

Put Geno on the back.

2 more unique and 1 more echo.
Fits my thoughts on the css.

 

[TheNerdyOne_]

Technically speaking isn't it in direct contrast to the Verg leak as he predicts 3 more at least while this indicates 2?

DLC is a thing that's pretty much 100% going to happen. It could easily be that one of his sources is aware of some DLC.