Off day? Not good at playing against the ICs.
Maybe dojo, but M2K only has the bad day excuse, since he has played (and beaten) Meep in a tourney, and played and beat lain later the same day. (which goes against the bad day theroy in itself. It looks more like he wasn't used to Lains playstyle.)
It depends on the character. Marths should have them so far out of grab range that yes, it is an equivalent mistake. MK, less so, but it's a pretty bad mistake. Snake is again, an equivalent mistake.
Obviously. But....
And it's not because their grabs take a while, it's because a lot of characters simply should not allow ICs close enough for it to be anything less then a massive mistake.
there is a trick here. It's true that you shouldn't allow ICs close to you, but you have to either approach (almost unversally a bad idea in brawl, even more so considering the risk/reward given from the fact that htey have a garunteed kill if you make a mistake) or retreat until the stage ends. Another of the ICs advantages is that they create positional advantages against their opponents by approaching, because their opponent can't afford to be in melee/boxing range. If the character (MK and marth more than snake) doesn't have enough mobility, it causes serious problems for them, as they HAVE to get the ICs off of them.
You need to reread, my schema factored in prediction, that was the "raw chance" section, since that's an odds-based schema, player skill morphs the ratio, but the odds of this occuring are the default.
Pllayer skill morphs the ratio yes, but as you said yourself, character mindgame potential is also very important. ICs have the greatest (IMO, this is debateable) mindgame potential of any character, for the simple reason that properly desynched IC is like fighting 2 characters at once, allowing for greater setups, more difficulty to read, superior approaches, ect.
Depends on the move, everyone needs to play very safely against ICs, and one thing I think is that people aren't used to playing against them properly yet, they're still too used to IC players not being able to reliably execute the chaingrabs.
This is probably true, but it can't be answered until we see more top level ICs play against other top level players. Theroy won't help to much here, only watching and waiting for developments will (again, IMO)
Bad DI, unless it's a set-up, or the move is too quick to properly DI, you should make that mistake. Bad DI, is a technical mistake, unless you have to predict it, it's a mistake that should not happen statistically at the top of the metagame.
Bad DI is difficult to detirmine, since against ICs, its also dependant on wether the ICs are desynched or not. You can pretty consistently Di and avoid Bilzzard setups when they are synched, but it's much harder in nana/popo grabs you in the middle of the blizzard right as it hits. Less so with Utilt, but still the same idea. The problem is the amount of variables that come into place.
Again, the difficulty of getting a grab is VERY match-up defendant, with some it's very easy (Ganon), others (marth) it's very hard. The harder it is, the bigger a mistake needed.
Obviously true, but it's still not so clear cut as you are making it out to be. There isn't enough actual matches that we can observe to detirmine if it is as easy or hard as we believe, since top marths don't seem to play top ICs enough. Snake is obviously from what we can see the hardest to grab, and MK is still evenish.
Also, you ment "dependant", not defendant right?
