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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
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New Jersey
You know, at this point I'm just going to abstain. Don't have anything to say here. If the last time we rated Monokuma I said something, I don't think anything's changed.

TF2 rep x 5. Non-Nintendo character is going to be a very interesting day. 17.46%.
 

Dan Quixote

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 25, 2020
Messages
1,106
Location
Florida
Oh heck yeah my biggest dark horse pick gets a day all to himself! Makes sense, who could stand as an equal to MY headmaster.

BA-PA-BA-BA-SHI-BA-PA-BA

CHANCE - 10%
Well we're off to a depressing note. Or should I say hopeless nyuk nyuk nyuk. Anyways, lots of people already made similar points here. Even 10% seems too high on the surface. I'm mostly giving Monokuma this score because of Spike Chunsoft, not because of Danganronpa. People tend to underestimate how big of a player Spike Chunsoft is these days. They have a long history of working with tons of other companies and consoles, including lots of Nintendo. They even created the biggest of all the many Pokémon spin-off series, Mystery Dungeon. They're still active to this day making a lot of really well-selling games. Spike Chunsoft is no slouch when it comes to Smash speculation imo. But like... Danganronpa? Not on Switch, very much violent, and not a ton to pull from for a moveset due to its visual novel nature. Monokuma and Danganronpa as a whole get a boost here from maybe being Spike Chunsoft's most recognizable totally original mascot, but still it feels like a long shot.

WANT - 95%
Freakin love Danganronpa dude. I love mystery stuff. Like my favorite type of novel are mystery novels, and the best ones are the classic Agatha Christie-style that encourage the reader to solve along with the protagonists. Mystery visual novels are just the greatest extension of that, like Ace Attorney and of course this one. That makes Danganronpa one of my favorite franchises and the first Danganronpa game probably in my top ten or fifteen favorite games of all time. The third game, V3, is pretty darn high up too. Plus I love Monokuma, he's a fun little guy. I know he's a terrible maniac, but he's always such an entertaining presence who can switch between comic relief and terrifying seriousness in a way that I totally buy. Of course, Smash isn't about displaying personalities that deeply, but it would still be fun to see him fight. I have this amazing idea that his Final Smash would be specialized executions for each fighting archetype. Like swordfighters would be attacked by blades and magic users would be seared with magic. The reason this isn't 100% is because in general I prefer to see the protagonist of a game or series playable before anyone else. Makoto Naegi with the other protagonists as alts would be cool imo, he could use class trial mechanics to fight and better represent the series as a whole. Still, I'd never ever say no to the best bear in gaming! Also Danganronpa music is siiiiiiick

Nominations: Oh nice I finally won some extras! In that case Tetra x 10 and SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x 20.

Predictions: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms 22.5%
 

NintenZ

Smash Legend
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I took a break from this thread because I was uncertain about rating the chances of another pass and the remaining characters, too many variables and I didn't wanna say anything whilist potentially jinxing myself, I just wanna go in blind

With that being said....

Monokuma

Chance- 10%

Well first let's get the positives out of the way. Danganronpa is probably the biggest visual novel franchise in existence, it's extremely popular with it transcending the games with an anime series, manga, live shows, loads of merchandise, and recognition from various different figureheads, to the point where even Terry Cruise livestreamed it. The crazy part is it's spike in popularity only really started at the beginning of last year at least in the West, so it's pretty crazy how fast it grew. Sakurai is also a fan of it, having played every game in the franchise and is even friends with series creator Kazutaka Kodaka, and regularly works with series composer Masafumi Takada on songs for his games. Why is this so low then? Well, what I mentioned is honestly a big fish small pond thing, it's without a doubt the most marketable visual novel series and most popular with audiences especially given Hot Topic now regularly sells DR merchandise, however visual novels are still a relatively niche thing in general, so in relativity it's modest. Another big thing against it are the lack of Nintendo appearances, Spike Chunsoft are very close with Nintendo and have helped on several games for them and put a lot of their games on their systems, but their flagship series has yet to make any sort of appearance on Nintendo systems which, given the choices Nintendo have gone with they've held some sort of interest in, that's not a good sign. Finally there's the fact that Smash has a main character stigma, they usually go with the protagonist first and I don't see them going with the main antagonist for this series, even if he is a series mainstay. So all-in-all, not looking good, there's incentive, but circumstances aren't the best so I can't really see it. Maybe in another game if circumstances drastically change but not looking good right now for the guy or the entire series at that.

Want- 50%

I love Danganronpa and have played all of the games in the series, but at the same time I got to be real I'd rather have the protagonists. I think they'd represent the game's mechanics much better whereas Monokuma would need a lot more creative liberties to have him work, I mean having Danganronpa representation in Smash and visual novels represented would still be a win for me, but I'd rather see what they could do with the protagonists, specifically a 4-in-1 character with Makoto, Hajime, Kaede, and Komaru, which I think would represent the series much better.

Nominations:
A Xenoblade character (x10)
Kaede (x10)
 
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extremeturkey

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
114
Monokuma 1% chance. I would say 0% but since he's a video game character I give him the smallest chance.

No desire at all for him personally.
 

YoshiandToad

Smash Hero
Joined
Dec 24, 2001
Messages
7,116
Location
Still up Peach's dress.
A bad bear:
Chance: 2%

Honestly between being a visual novel, seemingly having some sort of agreement with Sony in the past for them to publish the titles for PlayStation, that visual novels as a whole are pretty niche and there's ones more associated with Nintendo that are arguably bigge(namely Ace Attorney, who is a Smash Bros. fanbase fan favourite and has been in a fighting game before) I just don't see Monokuma making it.

Mii costume? Sure. Assist Trophy in a future game? Possibly. Fighter? Nah man, I just can't see it.

Want: 0%

Nor do I want Monokuma.

I tried watching the Game Grumps playthrough, and tbh after Leon Kuwata and Chiro Fujisaki's deaths I just stopped watching. It's not for me chief.

I'm not particularly against horrible character deaths but there's something about Danganronpa that irks me.
It feels particularly perverse in the way it frames deaths to the point I just feel like I'm watching an anime snuff film with the way the camera seems to linger on their bodies. I just didn't feel entertained. I felt sick.

Maybe that's the point of the series, but if it is, it's just not for me. Anime Saw is not something I can get behind, even compared to Bayonetta and Metal Gear it seems like an awful fit for Smash.

My personal feelings about the series aside, I'm also generally having a hard time imagining Monokuma as a good fighter choice for Smash. Monokuma's whole thing is punishment games, which come off as these big grand (literal) sure kill moves. That's great for a Final Smash but...well that's all I got.
 

Hinata

Never forget, a believing heart is your magic.
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True Despair:

Chance: 10%

As people have mentioned, Danganronpa is actually a real huge franchise. It's gone from just a simple visual novel to a multimedia franchise spanning all sorts of mediums. Even with Kodaka having parted ways from Spike Chunsoft, the series is still getting new content to this day, even if it's mellowed out into just new art and some crossovers every now and then.

However, even with all that in mind, I don't know if Sakurai would go for Monokuma. It'd be neat to see any kind of Danganronpa representation in Smash, but I just don't think it's high up on Sakurai's list. But if Sakurai did take the plunge for DR content, it'd definitely be Monokuma, considering how recognizable he is.

Want: 60%

I'd be down with anyone from Danganronpa making it into Smash because I just love the series so damn much. It causes me no end of emotional pain, but I still love it. I would prefer a Hero-style "Danganronpa Protags" rep though, because a moveset focused on Class Trial stuff would be cool.

Also I wanna play as Kaede.
 
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Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Characters with nothing on Nintendo consoles

Chance 15 - For this to happen I think you have to have 2 qualities. The first one is that I think a character has to be iconic, maybe even a level above that. Like there has to be a sizable monetary value to that character for Nintendo to even consider it. The 2nd is that I think they may have to be genre or console defining. For this I'm thinking something like World of Warcraft which was without a doubt the PC game for a long time. Think it would be pretty tough to have happen, but there are some really good candidates. Obviously there's Master Chief, who I'm not actually sure is dead yet(but things aren't great for him). He's the most likely one. Then there's also the potential Sony rep. With how iconic a good number of their characters are I think there's some solid incentive there for Nintendo. I also mentioned Wow above. I don't see someone like 2B being the one to break it. I will say though that Cloud and Joker has stretched this idea basically to it's breaking point so it I don't think its a hard and fast never for some of these characters, but I do think they might have to be something special in order to be the first.


Want 100 - A good chunk of characters I'd really love to see get in have nothing on Nintendo. I mean, I run the Sony support thread. There's like 500 characters from just them alone that would fantastic adds via moveset or legacy standpoints. Moving past them you also have the likes of Valve with nothing who also own huge and influential series and PC gaming series like World of Warcraft.

Predictions:
Qbby - 10.32%

Noms:
John Marston x10
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
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Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,395
Characters with no games on the Ness, Super Ness, N69, Gamebox, We, We Two, Switcharooni, Game and Game, Game Kid, Game rainbow, Game Advanced, Dsus, 4DS, or the virtual dimension boy

Chance: 10%

Of course the idea that a character must have Nintendo presence is a fan rule. And Sakurai himself stated that it is a courtesy for a character to be on a Nintendo system, not a requirement. But so far this rule has held up strongly and is one of the few fan rules that I believe in. But the reason it is holding up well might have to do with the characters simply not being a priority and/or having other obstacles. Let's break this down.

Master Chief: Suffers from the "One character per third party company in each pass" rule which, unlike other fan rules, has some evidence to back it up. Mostly the fact that Steve was in negotiations for years, plus there are theories out there suggesting that Sephiroth may have been negotiated for around the same time as Hero, and yet they were put in different passes from Hero and Banjo. Admittedly you can say that it would be stupid for Nintendo to limit themselves and Master Chief would be the kind of character to break this barrier, but with only 3 characters left and very little room for major third parties, I don't think he is happening. And I say this as someone who really wants Chief.

Monokuma: Danganronpa's popularity has died down a bit and the future of the series is uncertain. It is also more on the niche side, not obscure by any means, but the fact that it isn't on a Nintendo system really hurts it because it doesn't have the same level of popularity as series like Halo or Half Life which can sell itself better by just its name recognition alone. I know being iconic isn't the end all, be all, as the man himself stated. But if Nintendo isn't able to directly profit from it, then they would probably at least want the character to be very recognizable or have a very large amount of fan requests.

Sony characters: Not happening in my eyes. Sure Kratos is in Fortnite so in theory they might play ball. But that doesn't make up for the fact that Nintendo and Sony haven't had any collaborations at all, at least to my knowledge (Well, aside from the collaboration that ended abruptly and resulted in the creation of the PlayStation). There are just so many companies that are much closer to Nintendo that them going to Sony for a character would be the biggest curve ball in Smash history.

Valve characters: You could make an argument for this. In Japan PC gaming has been growing, Steam is huge in the West, Sakurai himself praised Half life, and Gabe Newell has stated he would be fine with Gordon being in Smash. With that said, Nintendo and Valve don't have much of a connection so it's hard to see Nintendo approaching them, despite them having some very high-profile series like Half Life, Team Fortress, and Portal.

2B: She also suffers from the same rule that hurts Master Chief, and is also hurt by her series being more niche. Plus Sakurai met Yoko Taro after this fighters pass was decided, which is a death blow.

World of Warcraft: It's a possibility. I did just argue for PC gaming in Japan and WoW is big in the West. But the fact that it's owned by Activision, who also owns Crash and Overwatch, is a big obstacle. Heck, Diablo 3 is on the Switch and Spyro got a revival too, so they are factors as well.

Overall, yeah it's not looking good for any of these options. I think the fact that they all are not on Nintendo hurts and when you combine that with everything I've mentioned, I don't think any of them are strong contenders. With that said, anything is possible and I have a feeling one of these characters might happen since they are all good candidates for the game.

Want: Abstain

Look. Don't get me wrong, any of these characters would be great. Master Chief, Monokuma, and Kratos are some of my top most wanted and I would be very happy with 2B and any of Sony's series like Uncharted and Ratchet and Clank as well as Valve's offerings which are juggernaut series. But I have to abstain from a want score as we could get WoW which I am less enthusiastic about and there is the slim chance we could get something else that I'm not thinking of. Otherwise, I would definitely have given this a high score.

Prediction: Qbby: 9%

Noms: Excitebiker x10
 

Mushroomguy12

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Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms

Chance: 0.01%


I don't really see it happening, and to be honest, if they did want to put, say Master Chief or 2B in Smash, I think Nintendo would at least ask for a Halo or Nier port/spinoff on Switch in exchange. It would be a self defeating paradox in terms of broken rules. After all, if a company is so stingy that their not even willing to put something so insignificant as a Persona Q2 or Theatrhythm on Nintendo's hardware, what business reason would Nintendo have to promote the character in Smash? Not to mention those two being the frontrunners, even though both of them have had other characters from their companies get in FP2, I don't really see anyone other than those two being special enough to break this rule.

Want: Abstain

There's too many characters in this category for me to give a formal score. Some I want, some I don't want.
 
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DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,221
Characters with no Nintendo Representation

Chance: 5% -
It's possible for a few characters. Namely Master Chief, though he's reliant on a third pass potentially being in the works, and with rumors that the Master Chief Collection may be ported to Switch, he may not be a part of this category in the near future anyway. Sony reps are still extremely unlikely despite the Kratos in Fortnite thing, even if Sony's a bit more lenient I still see this being a long way off. 2B lost out due to Yoko Taro's talks with Sakurai being after FP2 was decided, plus Sephiroth was already a death blow even without that. WoW has to compete with Crash and Overwatch, and the Activision side clearly has great interest in Crash in Smash. Valve has zero corporate relations with Nintendo and I don't see that changing any time soon (and even if PC gaming is growing in Japan it's series like The Elder Scrolls and Fallout becoming bigger, not Half Life and Portal). Corporate relations are a huge factor in third party reps and the pieces aren't there for Valve. I already discussed Spike Chunsoft yesterday so I won't repeat myself there. Overall, a lot of the more obvious choices have a fatal flaw or more that that really holds them back, so I don't see a barrier like this being broken anytime soon. Furthermore, a series having no Nintendo representation could also be a sign of Nintendo having little interest in getting a series on their systems, and with Nintendo picking the characters it's basically a death sentence.

Either way, wanted to keep this brief since I don't have a lot of energy tonight. Dangan however did a fantastic, detailed post above on all of the candidates I also mentioned so be sure to give it a read! :3

Want: 20% - It really depends on what the series is. Most of the franchises I want in Smash have SOME kind of Nintendo representation! Aside from Master Chief and maybe a Kingdoms of Amalur character or even Thrall, I can't think of any characters without Nintendo representation that I would want to see, and a lot of the big potential choices are characters I either don't care about/have no interest in or are characters I really don't like for one reason or another. I don't have anyone from Sony who I'd care at all about (except for maybe Parappa the Rapper, now that you think about it! Though he hasn't recieved any games in a long time so he's got too many barriers to make me want to push for him. I felt the same way about an Elder Scrolls rep during the Smash 4 days, since, while it IS relevant, it had no Nintendo representation at the time and this was before Western-owned Characters were a thing). I couldn't care less about Nier Automata and the themes that game evokes I just find...unsettling. Danganronpa's themes are a major turn-off for me. And Valve, I have a LOT of negative history with Valve, its' games, and its' fans. And let's not even get STARTED about Granblue and other franchises like that...

So overall, there are a few exceptions, but I personally believe that a character should get SOME kind of Nintendo representation before being considered for Smash. AS annoying as the Dante hype gets, I admire his creator for stating that he wants to see Dante's games on a Nintendo system before considering him for Smash.


Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10

Predictions:
Qbby - 4.89% - His game, while notable, kinda came and went. Nintendo DID do a decent job promoting him, and he did get his own Amiibo! But he likely wasn't high on Nintendo's priority list. So I don't imagine there will be much confidence in him.
 

DaUsername

Smash Ace
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Memebear
Chance: N/A
Want: 0%
Sorry guys, I just don't like Danganronpa.
I know everyone else in the world loves this series, but it's not for me.
Also, if we're gonna get a character from a VN about people being murdered, it should be the one who actually has games on Nintendo systems.

Not on Nintendo prediction: 7%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5
 

NintenZ

Smash Legend
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The Metaverse
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Characters who haven't appeared on a Nintendo console

Chances: 10%

I don't really think they'd do this, usually the characters that are chosen are ones Nintendo holds some sort of interest in, and if they haven't been on a Nintendo system ever? That indicates to me there's no form of interest they could show at the moment. Maybe something is going on behind the scenes, but I think characters who have appearances on Nintendo systems are the ones who have the edge, either that or ones that originated in a game Nintendo published if not on their system like Euden from Dragalia Lost. Really, if they're not a character you can purchase on a Nintendo system, then I just don't see you happening because accessibility for their audience is something that's typically kept in mind. Even Joker had PQ2 on 3DS for example.

Want: Idk

It really depends on who the character is and if they fit Smash's aesthetics and style. I'd really love Kat and the Danganronpa protagonists but I feel both those are characters who would very naturally and seamlessly fit Smash's style very well (Funny both of them actually have had a crossover before on their own terms). But ones like Kratos and Master Chief? Yeah no, I have zero desire to see characters like that in Smash, they may be iconic in their own right but I don't think either fit Smash very well. To me it's less about how well-known the character is, and moreso about how well they could be incorporated into Smash. I don't personally believe the myth that Smash can make a bunch of contrasting styles fit together seamlessly, from the franchises represented there's coherency, and I don't think every franchise would be very coherent.

Nominations:
A Xenoblade character (10x)
Kaede Akamatsu (10x)
 

Zyliee

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jan 30, 2021
Messages
45
Characters who haven't appeared on a Nintendo Console

Chances: 30%.

While there are a lot of options still left, I do think we might see one more character who hasn't been with Nintendo. Now, I wanted to rate it higher but a good portion went away for characters who have basically snuck onto the Switch or the like and thus HAVE appeared on a Nintendo console. Crash, Reimu, and Spyro all have games on the console now which makes it somewhat null to being 'outside Nintendo'. For me, it's about how much the character stands out when you say VIDEO GAMES that gives it a bit more of a chance. However, the odds are still stacked against them and it is probable that they are still tied up with Nintendo in some way.

Want: 100%

Something like this would be hype as hell and cause tons of confusion and argument across all message boards and youtube theorists and so much that I just want to see the chaos. But there are certain characters that while are favorites, I don't think they would work that well. Lets start with Valve, where while I hear a lot of people saying how good Heavy or 'The Team' being in Smash would be... I don't think it would work out that well. Gordan Freeman is even worse, and I don't think Chell would work either. Mii costumes however, Hell ****ing YES! But Valve has been a company that isn't about video games anymore. Also for PC, I took over the 'Thrall for Smash' one with lots of good suggestions for why he would be the best WoW rep and what he brings to the game. Thrall is not much of a face compared to Illidan or Arthas... But I do think he brings a lot more when you think 'World of Warcraft.' True, he fights for the same spot as Crash and Spyro which means no chance in hell... But I would love to get one of the most famous orcs in video games in Smash. And last one for PC... League of Legends. Like, this is currently one of the highest grossing franchises and they have no presence on any console but are ruling the world of Esports. While it's got a few faces... Ahri is probably the most unique one that helps sell the game and stands out from all the other 'humans' (And because I don't wanna fight Teemo in Smash)

Next, Console boys that fit the whole 'Video Game Icon' would have me raising up Master Chief because he did hog the spotlight of the FPS genre for years that even DOOM tried to copy it in some peoples eyes. While for Sony, I can see Kratos working really well as another cancerous 'long range smash' character like Simon/Richter and MinMin... But I would rather Sony give up Sly Cooper since his design and aesthetic and old presence as a Sony mascot would feel great. Other options for Sony would probably be Sackboy, Jak/Daxter and/or Ratchet/Clank.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
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Drenthe, NL
No game on Ninty
Chance: 8%
Technically, Joker didn't fall under this category as Q2 released in Japan before his TGA reveal. However that game feels so insuquential to many people that it could be argued characters with zero ties to Nintendo are still on the table. By that sense, this is possible. Yet, partnership and accessebility remain important. Therefore I don't see many characters that fit this concept as all that likely. Master Chief and 2B are likely out of the running, atleast for this pass, after Steve and Sephiroth. Sony and Valve reps feel like long shots since Nintendo barely interacts with either of them. I know I abstained on Monokuma yesterday but I'm personally not feeling him either. I guess a LoL character has a chance because of whack Nintendo/Tencent relations to my dismay.

Want: 20%

It really depends here. I guess I'd be somewhat hyped for Gordon Freeman and another part of me would appreciate a Warcraft character. Perhaps Gene and Stickmin too?... yeah in my dreams. I can't think of anyone else I'd care for. Heck, I actively don't want a Sony rep on the roster because they just haven't done much for Nintendo and the purist in me feels there are numerous first-parties left who've been waiting longer and someone like Kratos would be forcing himself through the line. Nintendo characters and third-parties affiliated with Nintendo remain a priority to me.

Qbby: 5.97%
Henry Stickmin x10
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
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Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
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Hell
New faces

Chances: 20%
I feel like the chances for a Danganronpa character are around 20%, with the majority of said chance being for Monokuma, and the remainings being for the protagonists. So yeah, I think that Monokuma is pretty likely. And yes, I did forget to put him in the honorable mentions for the previous day. Anyway, onto why think that Monokuma has a good chance. Danganronpa is a popular visual novel series, who unlike Fate manages to still have the games be a big thing about it, at least from my experience. Now, it would be either Monokuma of Phoenix Wright for a VN character in my opinion, and while Phoenix easily wins on being like by Nintendo fans and having history with Nintendo systems, as Danganronpa has never been on a Nintendo system to my knowledge despite how it would be great to have on Switch. But on the other hand, Monokuma is owned by Spike Chunsoft, who also did Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, and Monokuma pretty much has little to no competition when it comes to the characters they own since well, they mainly do Danganronpa and Mystery Dungeon. So yeah, that's pretty good when it comes to earning good cookie points for getting in Smash. However, Ace Attorney as a game is also way more popular, as according to wikipedia the best selling Danganronpa game has a bit over 250k sales, while the AA trilogy has been said by Capcom to have sold over 1 million recently. But with how Danganronpa is still popular, how Spike Chunsoft has a good relationship with Nintendo, I feel like it could perfectly happen. Also Famitsu rated it hightly so that's good for it, I think. Also I don't think that "she" would be playable with Monokuma in most case scenarios.
Quoting myself from yersterday because Monokuma is in my opinion the character with none of his games on Nintendo systems with the best chance to get in. You though this day was going to be something new, but it's the surprise last phase of the Danganronpa ratings. Anyway, Monokuma isn't the only candidate, but he's also by far the likeliest in my opinion. Otherwise, you have 2B, Master Chief, Sony characters, Valve characters, and I think that this is it, and well I don't think that any of them are really likely at all, the only one who would really bring it up would be Reimu if you don't count the Touhou fangames, but I personaly think that they count. And if you want to know why I don't think they're likely, quickly, for 2B and Master Chief: Steve and Sephiroth, for Sony characters, because it's Sony and they don't have the same good relationship Nintendo and Microsoft have, and while Valve characters are possible I feel like Anyway, in the end, with the characters I cited, I think that 20% is good.

Want: 95%

Of the one I cited, 2B is a character I would love so much, she's even in my top 10 now that we have Sephiroth. I love Nier: Automata, and 2B could be such a fun character to play as in Smash, as she could really have an amazing moveset, the music would also be amazing. Otherwise, Kratos could be very cool in Smash if based on God of War 1 to 3, even if he's not even near the level of 2B in my opinion. Master Chief could also be neat, even if not my preference at all since I'm not big on fps. A Valve character could be extremly fun too. And I would find Monokuma very cool too, as I already said yersterday. Overall, I think that characters who don't have games on Nintendo systems would be very cool, partly because they would extand the scope of Smash, but also because they could be a breath of fresh air, like Joker was, so that would be cool to have.

Nominations

Madeline mii x10

Predictions

Qbby: 7.6%
 
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fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
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Scotland
i would just like to say ahead of the qbby day: he may not have any arms but sakurai was willing to put in a character without arms or legs. so no ruling him out cause of that

anyway todays rating

the riff raff

chances: hmm im gonna go with 40% i can believe it. now sakurai did that it would have been difficult to include cloud if he hadnt appeared on any nintendo consoles at all. but whether that was specific to cloud or a thing in general that would apply to everyone. plus he never did elaborate of what the nature of this difficulty was. so far nintendos 3rd picks seem to be very popular characters/games and i think theres a fair amount of characters not on nintendo consoles that fit this. i believe it could happen but im not convinced it will.

abstain on want cause it depends on who it is. actually now that i think about it im not sure there is a character i support who isnt on a nintendo console. wait does euden count? mobiles arent nintendo consoles, they arent consoles at all. or are we discounting that cause hes nintendo owned? well i fully support euden if he counts and theres probably one or two characters i cant think of right now. but the vast majority of them im not interested in.

nominate grunty x10
 

Sari

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Character without games on Nintendo systems

Chance: 7%
I think Master Chief is really the only character in this category that could get in. Microsoft has clearly been very cooperative with Nintendo so if the stars align I can see them triple-dipping with one of the most popular video game characters ever. I gave him a 4% when we last rated him so to adjust for other characters I'll bump this up to 7%.

Other characters:
  • Sony is a big nope for obvious reasons.
  • Valve I also don't see happening since they're basically never worked with Nintendo.
  • I don't see a Danganronpa character for a variety of reasons. Even if we did get one, I feel like they'd try to coincide it with a Switch port of the Danganronpa games (seriously why haven't they been ported to Switch yet?).
  • 2B is basically done for since Sakurai met with Yoko Taro after FP2 had been decided on. Like with a Danganronpa rep, I think they would port Automata to Switch to go along with 2B.
Want: Abstain
This concept is too broad for me to give an actual score. Granted I would like to see some characters in this category like Master Chief, 2B, and of course Heavy. In general though, I much prefer to get characters with major appearances on Nintendo systems. That way players can be more familiar with them instead of having to buy an entirely different console.

-----

Qbby chance prediction: 2.00%

Nominations:
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/echo x5
Trevor Philips x5
 

BowserKing

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Characters who are not on Nintendo devices

Chance: 10%. This thing technically happened before with Cloud (before his game arrived on the switch), so it might happen again. The big question however is who? There are quite a bit of characters who have not been on a Nintendo device, but even then their chance is low.

Want: 70 to 90%. It depends on the circumstances, but there would be a few choices of those. Master Chief would be a great choice and while Master Chief’s chance is low, that character will be fun to play as. But overall, there are quite a bit of choices of those kinds a characters for Smash.

Prediction: Qbby (5%)

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle
 

jamesster445

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Characters who are not on Nintendo consoles.

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

:ultcloud::ultjoker::ultsnake:
I'd also like to point out that Alucard from Symphony of the Night was originally considered as the Castlevania character but the Belmonts were chosen because Sakurai liked the whip more.

Guests are added simply because Nintendo and the parent company are friendly with each other. Cloud or any Square characters would not have been added in Smash 64 even if guests were a thing. Hell Snake was added simply because Sakurai and Kojima were buddies.

It's really a case by case scenario.

Nominations: Zagreus Mii x5
 
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JOJONumber691

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50/50.

Could happen, Could Not Happen. I don't see more Third Parties besides someone from Koei, honestly, who knows at this point. I would welcome it with Open Arms, especially considering one of my 5 Most Wanted does fall into this Category (Ruby Heart), so it would definitely be positive for Smash Speculation.
 

Louie G.

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PRETTY MUCH MASTER CHIEF AGAIN

CHANCE - 35%

Joking aside, I think my stance on this is pretty apparent. If we ever get a character who has never appeared on Nintendo, I can't see it being anyone other than Master Chief. Of course it COULD be someone else, that's why my score is a little higher than it was for Chief himself, but let's break it down a little bit.

There are many reasons why a character could get into Smash Bros, "Nintendo connection" or direct marketability only being one of those reasons. I think it's a very significant reason but can be transcended by a number of other factors - namely a strong connection with the company in question and popularity / notoriety. Master Chief has all of those additional factors, I'd argue 2B and Monokuma do as well to lesser extents. But yeah, I'm not saying any character who doesn't appear on Nintendo is fair game, there just has to be additional incentive somewhere.

For what it's worth, my take is that this hasn't mattered since Joker. Clinging onto Persona Q2 feels like a desperate attempt to maintain some sort of order and logic, putting way too much stock in the existence of a 3DS spinoff title that released well after its prime, released mere days before Joker's reveal (yes, Joker was a matter of like, two weeks from breaking this rule altogether) and which Sakurai didn't play until some weeks after Joker was announced. And with Cloud at least you could be like "well... it's still Final Fantasy, it's close to Nintendo". People try and pull this same thing with Joker and SMT, but Joker literally brings nothing from the SMT whether it's a spinoff or not. He's there to represent Persona, specifically Persona 5 which was not and still isn't on Nintendo (although in addition to Q2, Scramble exists now).

(I'd argue what pushed Joker over the edge was Nintendo's close relationship with Atlus and how no other character was as relevant or significant to Atlus as Joker at the time of his inclusion - and hell, this is still the case. P5 becoming the company's greatest breakout hit, it was really the most logical choice.)

I do think the chances of seeing this "rule" officially broken in this pass are slim though, since Master Chief and 2B are from companies who already have characters in the pass (I've discussed how Chief can transcend this but yeah) and I mean... the number of characters this applies to at all is getting slimmer and slimmer. Depending on how you look at it Master Chief and 2B are even on Switch already in some capacity through costumes in Fortnite and Phantasy Star Online already. There's always going to be an excuse to deny this barrier being completely irrelevant.

I think that it's pointless to uphold this restriction though. It feels like only a matter of time until this one gets broken, but we may have to wait another game.

WANT - ABSTAIN
Yeah, sure why not? Master Chief is great, and there are quite a few other characters who I think would be awesome additions. Particularly a number of Sony characters like Parappa the Rapper and Spike from Ape Escape.. yknow, extremely unlikeable characters but still.

I have to admit, I'm still a bit of a Nintendo purist through and through, but I've opened up to this idea over time. I think it's kinda futile to try and restrict characters at this point when the pool just keeps getting bigger and bigger, so may as well go with the flow. Lots of cool options reveal themselves when you start caring less about this.

Edit: I'm gonna abstain from a proper rating though, there are plenty of characters who I don't want from this vague pool just as there are a lot of them that I do want. So I dunno, I don't like arbitrarily want this broken I just like some characters who fall under its umbrella (although I would like to see the people who are always arguing against these characters to be proven wrong).

PREDICTION:
QBBY - 5.50%

NOMINATION:
BILLY & JIMMY LEE x10
 
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Cutie Gwen

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:ultcloud::ultjoker::ultsnake:
I'd also like to point out that Alucard from Symphony of the Night was originally considered as the Castlevania character but the Belmonts were chosen because Sakurai liked the whip more
Alucard's been playable in CastleVania 3, Judgement and Dawn of Sorrow, 2 of which are still Nintendo exclusive and the other only going off of Nintendo systems quite recently


Chance: 1%, this is way too broad of a category to give a high rating but I'll say this. Sakurai has shown multiple times he doesn't care about Nintendo relationships. Having a Nintendo appearance was a courtesy, a courtesy is a nice gesture, but never a requirement. He's also said he hates the console wars twice when talking about a character who only appeared on Nintendo due to cameos and a character owned by the company behind the Xbox. This is an inevitability if you ask me, it's just a matter of being now or a future installment.

Want: 30% Usually this would be too broad but I do like the idea of people who cling on to Nintendo relationships as if it's of utmost importance finally realizing that they were wrong. Smash is a celebration of gaming so I wouldn't hate it either as long as the character was decent at worst.

Velvet Crowe x5
 

Sari

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About the Snake thing, it is true that Snake already had a Nintendo appearance before Brawl. However something important to keep in mind is that Snake was considered for Melee which was released years before Twin Snakes.

Actually, what really brought about the Snake character was from a conversation I was having back when I was developing the Smash Bros. game for GameCube when Hideo Kojima phoned me and practically begged me to put Snake in the game, saying please, put him in there, I want him in there! But at that time we were already deep in development and I was thinking I wasn't able to get him in there and that we'd probably be making another Smash Bros. game afterward, so I kind of gave up on the idea and said it's too bad you hadn't brought this up earlier.
I think that very last part helps show that Snake could've gotten in had Kojima contacted Sakurai earlier. Of course Snake could've not made it into Melee for a variety of other reasons, but the fact that he was considered to begin with makes me think his lack of Nintendo appearances wasn't one of them.
 

Mushroomguy12

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About the Snake thing, it is true that Snake already had a Nintendo appearance before Brawl. However something important to keep in mind is that Snake was considered for Melee which was released years before Twin Snakes.



I think that very last part helps show that Snake could've gotten in had Kojima contacted Sakurai earlier. Of course Snake could've not made it into Melee for a variety of other reasons, but the fact that he was considered to begin with makes me think his lack of Nintendo appearances wasn't one of them.
Twin Snakes wasn't his first Nintendo appearance, Snake has had multiple games released on Nintendo hardware since the NES, more than a decade before Melee.

Image result for metal gear nes cartridge
Image result for snake's revenge nes


He even had a Game Boy Color game come out a year before Melee's release.

Image result for metal gear ghost babel
 
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Commander_Alph

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Character With Their Games Not Present in Nintendo Platform

Chances: 25%

Well... It depends, if you are from series that is among the most popular in that console (like Crash Bandicoot) you will have a high chance to be included because they're fairly noticible but, this couldn't be said to small studio or even a studio that barely touch up with Nintendo for a long time who is directly from a rival console like say, Naughty Dog with their Uncharted and The Last of Us that solidify their ground on Sony. And in the opposite side, even smaller game studios like LEVEL-5 and Cooking Mama Limited could benefit from this as they are practically heavily associated with Nintendo console. With all that explain the only company that is exception to both of these is Sony as we all know no matter how big they are. All in all of you are from another console you will either have a big status, not from a fairly small studio and still have a connection to Nintendo more than once in a decade like Square Enix who already established modern Final Fantasy as part of Sony but still have time to put the first 6 games and the Mana series on a Nintendo console, while on the other hand despite coming from a fairly small studio with just the virtue of having their game be a Nintendo exclusive put you up higher.

Want: 30%

Fun fact: my childhood is mostly filled with PlayStation games which means that I grew up with that more than Nintendo and you could already tell how I really want every one of them to be included. From Sackboy to Ratchet and to Kratos I pretty much love them very much but sadly the ironic part is that they are owned by Sony and as I mentioned before they are more or less taking this so called "competition" very seriously and has been wanting to out do Nintendo more and more. So yeah, no chance.


Noms:
Disgaea Rep ×10

Prediction:
Qbby: 15,7%
 
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jamesster445

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I believe snake was on the game cube
Twin Snakes is a non canon, non Kojima directed remake of Solid 1. There's also zero content from Twin Snakes in Brawl or Ultimate from art to music. This also applies to Ghost Babel and the NES games, Persona Q and Q2 and every FF game on Nintendo.

Alucard's been playable in CastleVania 3, Judgement and Dawn of Sorrow, 2 of which are still Nintendo exclusive and the other only going off of Nintendo systems quite recently
Even if Alucard joined Smash, you know it was going to be based off the SotN appearance. Not any of those appearances.

The point stands is that it's ultimately about company relationships. Even the man himself said that it's more of a "courtesy" to be on a Nintendo console than a requirement.
 

Mushroomguy12

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Twin Snakes is a non canon, non Kojima directed remake of Solid 1. There's also zero content from Twin Snakes in Brawl or Ultimate from art to music. This also applies to Ghost Babel and the NES games, Persona Q and Q2 and every FF game on Nintendo.
Theme of Tara is a remix of a song from the first Metal Gear game on NES.



The Gray Fox Assist Trophy also reuses voice clips from Twin Snakes.



Twin Snakes is also mentioned in multiple Metal Gear trophy and sticker descriptions in Brawl.
 
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fogbadge

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Twin Snakes is a non canon, non Kojima directed remake of Solid 1. There's also zero content from Twin Snakes in Brawl or Ultimate from art to music. This also applies to Ghost Babel and the NES games, Persona Q and Q2 and every FF game on Nintendo.



Even if Alucard joined Smash, you know it was going to be based off the SotN appearance. Not any of those appearances.
That’s not strictly true, some of the FF7 songs were on the 3ds
 

Cutie Gwen

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Twin Snakes is a non canon, non Kojima directed remake of Solid 1. There's also zero content from Twin Snakes in Brawl or Ultimate from art to music. This also applies to Ghost Babel and the NES games, Persona Q and Q2 and every FF game on Nintendo.



Even if Alucard joined Smash, you know it was going to be based off the SotN appearance. Not any of those appearances.

The point stands is that it's ultimately about company relationships. Even the man himself said that it's more of a "courtesy" to be on a Nintendo console than a requirement.
I agree SotN's the big one but the topic is characters who've never been on Nintendo systems, not characters who've had plenty of Nintendo appearances but their big game isn't on Nintendo. There's a big difference, just saying
 

Pillow

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No Nintendo Appearance
Chance - 50%
I mean...I guess? I don't think it ultimately matters if they have been on Nintendo or not, but lots of franchises have just incidentally been on a Nintendo console at some point or another. There's a few notable characters who haven't (MC) but most of the frontrunners left have been on Nintendo I think. So...yeah.

Want - Abstain
There's some characters I like that haven't been on Nintendo, and some I don't. There's just too many characters here to give this a proper want rating.

Nominations:
FromSoft Rep x15
 
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NintenRob

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Abstain on chance

Want is 0% for the most part, I have no connection to any character with no Nintendo appearances. being a Nintendo crossover is why I play Smash and while I'm fine with most of the guest characters, honestly I still kinda taje issue with Joker despite him having a few spin offs on Nintendo systems now.

Using noms on Carmen Sandiego
 

Dan Quixote

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Vague thing to rate... but vague can be good!

What Nintendon't

CHANCE - 30%
Hrrng, this brings back memories of the Gen VIII Pokémon rate from a couple weeks ago. On an individual level, each character who's never appeared on a Nintendo console gets their chances kinda kneecapped from the start, especially since most of those are from companies that tend to not associate with Nintendo much anyways. But let's poke in from the opposite direction. Nintendo is only a small part of the gaming industry, there's hella characters out there who are just as iconic as Mario and Sonic are these days. Like, there are soooooo many possible options out there from places like Sony or Activision or EA or Valve. Just like that Pokémon rate I brought up earlier, the question becomes whether all these characters being combined under this one umbrella rate makes the percentages additive or multiplicative. I'm willing to believe the former. My rate here is pretty high because it's only the chances that we'll get at least ONE of this big group, which is pretty high imo.
So why is my chance rate still below 50% even with that in mind? Well what isn't on Nintendo anymore anyways? Almost all the Final Fantasy games got brought over a while ago. Assassin's Creed crossed over, Call of Duty crossed over, Crash Bandicoot crossed over. Most indie games these days make it on. Even Mortal Kombat! Really only super recent franchises haven't appeared on a Nintendo console. The only stuff left is really unlikely on its own, like a Sony fighter. Really check out the third party ports under Nintendo's belt, most big video game characters are on a Nintendo console anyways.

WANT - 100%
I do not understand why anyone would rate this lower than 100% want. This could mean so many characters! Just like what I said in my chance score, the sheer size of this pool makes it an easy full want from me. I obviously have no connection to EVERY non-Nintendo character out there, but there's totally a few that I adore and since they fall under this umbrella I'd be happy to say yes, I want a character who's not on a Nintendo console. I would imagine that pretty much everyone in this lil speculation community has at least one non-Nintendo character who's important to them, right?

Nominations: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x 20

Predictions: Qbby 7.5%
 

GoodGrief741

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Messages
10,169
The Euden Situation

Chance: 6%
I consider having a game and an appearance on a Nintendo system to be one of the only rules that actually matter, along with being a videogame character. The instances of Sakurai saying stuff like "it's a courtesy" and "I might have had misgivings if [Cloud] didn't have any" to me seem more like Japanese speaking patterns softening the statement rather than evidence of actual flexibility. 5 games in and every single character fits these specifications, even after the last two games saw a barrage of third party characters. Truth be told, there's very few characters that don't, and even fewer that matter enough to get in. It seems like at some point or another in time, Nintendo is just too big for any major series to ignore - especially for Japanese developers. Now that Ultimate's DLC is in the hands of Nintendo higher-ups, I doubt that any franchise that they never had a stake in will even cross their minds.

However, I think this rule can potentially be broken if the character is iconic and influential enough. Y'know, characters by console rivals, or Gordon Freeman, or something else that was huge on PC. But it's a short list, probably comprised mostly of Western characters (so they're already at a disadvantage). And they shouldn't be taken as anything other than dark horses; not impossibilities, but certainly not frontrunners. It's likelier that one of these Nintendo-elusive IPs gets a Switch port as an olive branch before a Smash inclusion is seriously considered.

Oh and then there's Euden. He's the likeliest character that fits the concept.

Want: 5%
There are several characters that fit this concept that I'd adore. Master Chief, obviously, Kratos and Nathan Drake and Aloy, anyone from Rockstar Games, Raz from Psychonauts (why the hell is that not on Nintendo?), Gordon Freeman and Chell, 2B, JC Denton, Sam from Death Stranding (don't judge me), there's many I'm forgetting. But that's specific, and this is generic. Generally speaking, I hope this rule stays in place. It keeps Smash at least somewhat focused on Nintendo, which is what it should be, and provides some order to the chaos that is current speculation. Plus it means that we just have to get more games on Nintendo hardware, and that's fine by me.

Noms: Agent 47 x10
Qbby prediction: 4%
 

TCT~Phantom

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Master Chief but with extra steps

45% Chance

If I am being honest, this is basically my odds of Master Chief rn and a little higher with the outside chance we get a Sony character or Danganronpa or something. This is one of the fan rules that I personally have had the least stock in because, well, Smash is not just about Nintendo anymore. Honestly, it stopped being just about Nintendo in 2006 with Snake. Or if you really want to push it, 2015 with Cloud. Smash has become about gaming history and gaming's greatest crossover, which honestly makes this make a bit of sense. TBH, Master Chief is why this is so high. With no official appearance of Halo on a Nintendo console, he basically just has Microsoft giving NIntendo a great deal in Smash and the endless fan demand that would follow, provided that the MC collection does not show up on the switch. MC was discussed relatively recently, so I won't go too much in depth but yeah, he makes enough sense right now.

I talked about Danganronpa yesterday. TLDR I am a skeptic.

Sony is a bit of a weird one. In my eyes the main candidates are Ratchet and Clank and Kratos. Both of whom are franchises that are long running on Sony platforms and popular everywhere. I am not as confident in Uncharted or TLoU since I think those would not translate as well into Smash. Regardless, I personally do not see a Sony character happening. Not only do Sony and Nintendo have much longer running bad blood, like actual bad blood beyond console wars, than Nintendo and Microsoft, the situation could not be more different between Sony and Microsoft. Phil Spencer clearly loves getting good publicity for Xbox and loves to collaborate with basically everyone. Sony meanwhile has show that outside of Fortnite, in which they were dragged kicking and screaming to cooperate, they have not been in a collaboration mood. So yeah, skeptical of a Sony character as well.

Valve is interesting. Based on interviews, they would likely collab with Nintendo if approached. That being said, there are hurdles. PC gaming, or in this case Steam, does not have the same presence in Japan as it does in the west. Western characters overall I think are more on the unlikely side unless they can cross the pacific or they have astronomical fan demand like Banjo did. Valve characters are not there yet, despite how many polls r/TF2 raids. Heavy would be an awesome choice that I would love, but I doubt Valve.

Most of the other big names tend to cross over, when one doesn't like 2B the question is when port. Honestly, a Nier Automata port likely will end up coming at some point, but it still is not likely that 2B gets in right now. We just got a square rep, and even for a third pass the square competition is wide. It could happen, but I am not confident in it. I might be missing some names, but right now it feels like the vast majority of characters do end up having at least one game on a nintendo system.

That leaves just Euden for realistic candidates. Euden is weird. Dragalia Lost has done fine I guess. To be honest, this is a first party that I have underrated that makes sense. The IP seems to be doing well and an appearance in Smash would boost it. So a bit of a dark horse here. Honestly might nom him since talking about him and researching him more would be interesting.

Abstain Want

Look, with broad concepts like this, its hard. On one hand, I could get Master Chief or a character I love. On the other hand, I could get a character I would find boring as sin like Joel. Would I love Heavy or Master Chief or Kratos or even Ratchet? Yeah, probably. But when rating this, I do not know who I am getting. I would rather just abstain than tip the scales even with a 50. It to me feels better on very vague concepts like this to just sit it out.

Haggar x 10
 

GoodGrief741

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Henry Stickmin x360
Mii Costume: Madeline x335
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x300
John Marston x285
Concept: Team Fortress 2 rep x280
Worms x275
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x275
Crazy Dave x275

250 - 201

Mike Haggar x235
Excitebiker x235
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x227
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x220
Tetra x205
Agent 47 x205

200 - 151

Concept: Far Cry rep x194
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x192
Zagreus x180
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x180
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x165
Billy & Jimmy Lee x160

150 - 101

Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x150
Riptor x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Estelle Bright x130
Trevor Philips x130
Stage: Bowser's Castle x127
Boss: Rayquaza x125
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x125
Kaede Akamatsu x120
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x111
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Senator Armstrong x110
Rallen (Spectrobes) x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
Fulgore x104

100 - 51

[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x95
Giygas x90
Echo (Bowser) x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Stage: Tetris x80
Ryza (Atelier) x75
Concept: From Software rep x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x70
Echo (Olimar) x61
Ghirahim x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x40
Concept: Disgaea rep x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
[Rerate] Louie x25
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
Demi-Fiend x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
[Rerate] Brian x5
Firebrand x1

There's now a three-way tie in the top seven, with Velvet Crowe and Crazy Dave catching up to Worms in sixth place.

Agent 47 sneaks past 200 noms.

Billy & Jimmy Lee punch through the 150 nom barrier.

Grunty conjures 25 noms.

Dan Quixote Dan Quixote You got 10 noms for Monokuma's day, plus your 10 extra noms, that would leave you short of the 30 you gave, so would you like to fix them?

NintenZ NintenZ You barely missed out on the 10 noms, so I need you to tell me to whom you'll give the 5 you got.

Also, to clarify: the max amount of noms you can get for rating a single character is 10. The confusion probably comes from the double days we've had recently, but 10 is the ceiling unless specifically noted.
 
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