Alright fellas time for you know what
...Calcs. I'm talking about calcs. The last 19 calcs of Ultimate speculation, to be precise. Here we go!
Boss: Ender Dragon
0.00% Chance - 45.00% Want
This is obviously the lowest chance score possible, making Ender Dragon the least likely boss and putting it in the exclusive company of Brash the Bear, Unsafe Wiimote Guy, Peppino, and Echo (Bowser).
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd
7.00% Chance - 44.29% Want
This costume had its chance score inflated by a single 30% rating (that was me, heh). Without it it would be 4.70%
Alex is now the least likely Mii Costume, tied with Monika, and also the second least wanted.
Sam Fisher
3.33% Chance - 58.67% Want
Mii Costume: Monika
7.00% Chance - 30.00% Want
Monika is now the least likely Mii Costume, tied with Alex Kidd, and also the least wanted.
Stage: Tetris
6.18% Chance - 95.00% Want
This stage's chance score is biased because of one 25% rating (second highest is 5%). Remove it and you get 2.42%
This score still makes it the likeliest stage we've rated, dethroning Bowser's Castle. However it can't manage to dethrone it in want, having to settle for only the second highest want score ever (and, paradoxically, the least wanted stage as well).
Sukapon
0.44% Chance - 40.00% Want
Gene
1.30% Chance - 55.00% Want
Last time we rated him he got 1.84% chance and 22.08% want. Gene's want benefited mostly from people abstaining (and dunking on poor Sukapon instead)
Lugia
0.13% Chance - 36.14% Want
Lugia became the fourth least likely first party.
Agumon
3.59% Chance - 65.83% Want
First time we rated him he got 22.17% chance and 56.29% want. Last time he got 15.91% chance and 58.10% want. The difference between three scores is that the second one happened after Bandai Namco started bringing all their Miis back and the third happened after, you know, a Bandai Namco character. But want is growing steadily.
Legends Trainer
4.20% Chance - 44.63% Want
Concept: Dynasty Warriors character
13.00% Chance - 70.00% Want
Eggman
10.43% Chance - 67.86% Want
First time we rated him he got 17.40% chance and 76.28% want. Last time he got 23.82% chance and 69.23% want. You can see the Sephiroth effect come into play and then die out as the backlash took hold.
Penny Crygor
1.83% Chance - 50.00% Want
D.Va
0.71% Chance - 16.00% Want
Captain Charlie
2.00% Chance - 25.83% Want
Kraid
3.50% Chance - 40.00% Want
Joe Random
0.17% Chance - 25.00% Want
Joe earns the honor of being the fourth least likely third party.
Concept: Crazy Taxi character
0.22% Chance - 34.00% Want
This is now the second least likely concept.
And of course
Sora
20.00% Chance - 65.78% Want
We have him a 1 in 4 chance. That's not bad, hell, it was the second highest chance score for a character since E3! (The highest was Phoenix, by the way) In spite of how unexpected it was, we weren't that far from the mark.
Below are the scores of his various rerates:
I. 15.87% - 38.64%
II. 7.32% - 47.47%
III. 39.40% - 63.67%
IV. 40.58% - 54.44%
V. 34.78% - 68.38%
VI. 14.44% - 70.00%
I wonder, how different would these have been had we known he was the ballot winner?
Aside from Sora, we also confirmed Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020), thanks to Melody of Memory's rendition of Dearly Beloved. This got 52.53% chance (highly expected, good job) and 48.89% (mixed reception, probably people not very much into promotion).
Other than that, well, I won't be listing what's disconfirmed since that would be everything else... almost. There is Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass (66.33% - 70.00%). We have no word on this so it could go either way. However, it's worth pointing out that the count of all the content in Ultimate had an "as of this date" disclaimer, so it's possible they're planning more content and Spirit Events are the obvious conclusion.
Oh, and back to calcs for a bit. To Boss: Ender Dragon, Sam Fisher, Sukapon, Gene, Lugia, Agumon, Penny Crygor, D.Va, Captain Charlie, Kraid, Joe Random, and Crazy Taxi character: Welcome to the Less Likely Than Goku club! Though, now that we have a Disney character in Smash, does that mean anything? Is anything impossible anymore...?
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Now, it's time for me to go. I'm signing off Smashboards. It's been a good run but it had to end at some point, I don't want to stay on until Smash 6 rolls around and, well, this is as good a place as any to get off the train. I'll be back on Sora's satisfaction day to say my piece but other than that, this is farewell GoodGrief.
I can't put into words how grateful I am to this thread's existence, but I'll try anyway. Back in November 1st 2018, I was having a real rough time. I believed the Grinch leak and liked what it peddled, so when the presentation rolled around and instead we got Incineroar and Piranha Plant (two fighters I still think are, along with Corrin, the worst inclusions to Smash ever), it hit hard. I was frustrated and didn't really know what to do, what to speculate about, what to predict, I didn't even care. Smash sucked and was going to continue to suck, so why bother, right? I was ready to drop out of Smashboards and speculation and stop caring, maybe not even buy the DLC.
What stopped me? Well, it was RTC. Not necessarily the fun of the game; at that point I really wasn't having fun with anything speculation related, and I was abstaining on chance. What kept me on this thread, and therefore the forum at large, was my duty towards the thread. I had a big responsibility – I'm the nominations guy! Without nominations there's no schedule; earning nominations is the reward of partaking in RTC, and without a reward, there's no game. So I stuck around, because I might be many things, but one thing I'm not is extroverted enough to ask for someone else to do stuff I've agreed to do, dammit.
And so came Joker, who was precisely the character I needed. I had played and loved Persona 5, as had many of my irl friends I had introduced to the series, and we all got to watch that reveal live at TGA. And then I got to come here and experience what it was like to be hyped with the community again. It wasn't K. Rool but by Jove it was enough. And that snowballed into 3 years. If it hadn't been for this thread I'd have missed out on three slow and crazy years of speculation. But instead I got to defend the merits of Dragon Quest and watch it pay off wonderfully. I got to argue, pointlessly in the end, how Spring Man and Ribbon Girl and Ninjara and Min Min could all be alts of one another. I got to give 100% chance scores to Ryu Hayabusa and Isaac and Rex and then watch none of them get in. I got to see so many stupid phony leaks. I got to see Sephiroth bring despair to everyone in the best way. And I got to see what the world looks like when finally, a pair of buddies get to come home, and a clown-shoed doofus unlocks the final world to visit.
And beyond that, holy **** there's more beyond that. There were so many Directs, including one I can't forget in which Advance Wars returned and Dread became real. I took part in some amazingly creative forum games, roster projects that would put real devs to shame. I made a few movesets that I'm really proud of, made me realize that maybe I can do more than just pitch characters. The entire speculation for base game Nickelodeon All-Stars Brawl came and went. I made two threads with so much effort and dedication because I feared (still do) that I might not be good enough for the characters' fans. And I got to meet and talk to and listen to so many wonderful people, on this thread and on others. There are no words. I know many will read this, and many won't because they moved on already or because they frequent other threads. And I won't tag because that would be too many people, and because I'd hate to forget someone and make them feel unimportant. So I'll just put the thought out into the world: you rock. Keep being you and best of luck in life.
I think that's all I needed to say. So, once more: farewell everyone!
Damn it now i have to do math again
Once again, thank you so much for all your help. I will talk in more detail when it comes to the final day, but running this thread solo was exhausting and I am so glad that you helped out. You, Sari, and UtopianPoyzin all helped keep this ship afloat and made this RTC in my opinion its best rendition yet. Now, for the final day, I do plan on going in more detail on this, but once again thank you so much for all your help. I am not kidding when I say this could nto have been as successful as it was without your help.
Now then, lets talk about Sora.
I won't lie to y'all. I was setting myself up for rock bottom expectations. We got three huge third parties. Arguably the biggest fighting game series outside of Street Fighter was the smallest third party we got this pass. Sephiroth brought us actual Final Fantasy 7 content (though I am forever slaty that we dont have any music from 4,6,9, or 10) and is arguably the biggest villain in gaming not in smash. And Minecraft is the biggest game of all time. With such a huge pass, it seemed inevitable that the final character would be a smaller series or a shill rep. In my heart, the best case scenario was something small like Monokuma or Phoenix Wright. My gut was telling me we would get Nahobino or Cinderace or something that would produce Byleth tier salt.
I obviously supported a lot of big characters, which is why this part of speculation was so difficult for me. I wanted Crash as my most wanted. I wanted Master Chief. I wanted big characters, what can I say? Did I want some niche stuff? Oh obviously. I was supportive towards Phantasy Star and Ys getting reps, and after playing Trails of Cold Steel I would have been delighted if Rean was the pick. But I was not expecting anything for them. Now, I was happy with what we got to an extent so far. The Aegis rep Xenoblade 2 and are one of my mains. Sephiroth was one of my dark horse picks who made me super excited and is in my character repertoire. Kazuya brought a ton of cool content and I do love me some Tekken music. Steve is from one of the biggest games of all time. Min Min... well I will save my thoughts on her for her day. But man, I wanted something else in FP2 that would make me lose it like Joker or Banjo did for FP1, or Ridley, Everyone is Here, and K Rool made me feel in the base game. Sephiroth was there there, but I wanted one last good pick. If not for me, for the community.
And now we come to Sora. Sora was always one of the hardest characters to discuss in this thread. While his want has trended up for the most part, he always has been a headache to talk about. The Disney copyright was always the biggest sticking point. Now, for those of you out of the loop, Disney owns ~20% of intellectual property with TV and Movies. If you watch something, there is a strong chance it might be disney adjacent now. That is how much of an empire they became in the Bob Iger years. And that brings us back to Sora, because he was unfortunately under the Mouse's umbrella. Getting Sora in the game was always going to be a herculean task. And it is one that for the most part made me bullish on him a bit.
In spite of that, Sora was always someone I would have been happy to get. Kingdom Hearts 2 Final Mix is one of my favorite video games of all time. Kingdom Hearts 1 also holds a special place in my heart. I love the Kingdom Hearts series. Is it cringe? Yeah probably. Is the story absolutely insane? Of course. But I love it. It is hard to explain but there is a certain amount of whimsy in the series. The series originally started as a Disney and Final Fantasy collaberation, and I think that best explains it in its best and worst moments. At its best, Kingdom Hearts captures the whimsy and scale of Disney, while holding onto Final Fantasy's RPG roots and storytelling. There is something magical to playing through Kingdom Hearts as a series, in spite of how much of a joke it can be. Yes, the series is stupid. Nothing beats hearing Terra talk about his darkness to Minnie Mouse or having Sora being duct taped to the plot of Frozen because disney decided to be too controlling over the image of that world. But I love the series, warts and all. I do have some genuine grievences with the series, such as how Nomura does not know how to write female characters or how frustrating it can be to get through the Kudzu plot of these games. But I do love Kingdom Hearts. Sora might not be my favorite character, Roxas and Riku are probably among my favorites, but I do have a soft spot for the guy. He is just so charming and optimistic, even if he is dumb as a rock.
That brings us to October 5th. Leading up to it, there was that one 4chan leak circulating. Now, I quickly dismissed it. 4chan leaks feel like monkeys on typewriters. Sure, sometimes they are right, like with E3 2018, but oftentimes they are wrong. I told everyone expect nothing good, just to set yourself up for disappointment. Then the trailer starts, and it is clear they are hyping this one up. When everyone became trophies, I kind of expected it to be Chief, because of that one Halo 3 commercial. Then mario comes to life and walks to the flame, and then throws the flaming sword. I started to process that it was a keyblade as soon as it slowed down, and then lost my ****.
Gameplay wise, Sora seems fun. He seems to draw heavily from KH1 Sora, with the magic working like in KH 1 and his combos and physics matching that game. While I would have preferred KH2 as the base for his moveset, this is clearly a portrayal of love and care and I love what they did with it. Hollow Bastion looks to be a fun legal stage, and much like Northern Cave I can't wait to play on it with my friends. The music selection reeks of Disney choosing the first 9 songs on the list Sakurai sent them, but they chose a good set of KH 1 songs at the end of the day. No Rage Awakened, Hearts as One, Darkness of the Unknown, Another Side Another Story, or Fate of the Unknown stings. But hey, we did get a good bit of bangers with in my opinion one of the prettiest stages we ever got in all of Smash.
Sora's reveal was perfect. A perfect blend of whimsy and hope for one of the biggest fan requests ever. A perfect finale for Smash Ultimate getting new characters.
In terms of what is left for Ultimate, I am expecting the bare minimum. Maybe there will be spirit events considering how low maintenance they are. There probably will be a skeleton balance team left to work on the game and maintain the servers. But in terms of active development, I am gonna say this is the final dance. My heart says maybe we might get a few more stages based off the boss arenas to fill out the stage selection screen, but I know that we likely are just going to get the bare minimum.
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So, what will become of RTC. Well, we will be doing a few satisfaction rerates.
Day 1. Inkling, Everyone is Here, Daisy, Ridley,
Day 2: Simon, Richter, Chrom, Dark Samus, K Rool
Day 3. Isabelle, Ken, Incineraor, Piranha Plant
Day 4: World of Light, Spirits and Smash Online
Day 5: Joker, Hero, Banjo
Day 6: Terry, Byleth, and Fighters Pass 1
Day 7: Min Min, Steve, Sephiroth
Day 8: Pythra, Kazyua and Sora, and Fighters Pass 2
Day 9: Favorite Moments/Least Favorite Moments of Smash Speculation as a whole
Day 10: Favorite RTC days
Day 11: Top 5 first and third party characters you think will be frontrunners for the next game, and final goodbyes
This is the schedule people wanted to do. As one final dance for RTC, I want to revisit Ultimate and what it meant to people. Hopefully it meant as much to you all as me.
Today will mark the beginning of our new and final schedule. Today we start where we began. Only knowing of Inkling at first, to learning of Everyone is Here, Echo fighters were a thing now with Daisy, and one of the biggest requests of all time, pun intended, hit the big time when Ridley hit the scene. Now, how does the community feel about them and their execution three years later? Post your satisfaction scores for Inkling, Everyone is Here, Daisy, and Ridley.
