Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

fogbadge · Sep 10, 2021

the music of paradise

chances: 20% maybe just maybe. i can believe that nintendo would suggest some of their other long running series but i think they might have other priorities. i think theyd want to focus on their switch games. but hey with sakurai who knows what hes vetoing and what hes not. now theres reason to believe hes considered it before but thats no reason to think hed considered it again just ask dixie, toon zelda, ayumi and takamaru. i dont think the second chance theory holds any real water.

want: 100% i love these games. rhythm paradise i full of amazing, bizarre and fantastic characters the vast majority of whom would make great fighters. certainly more fun than some of the other characters we have. had smash still been about nintendo then i would say that this series has done well enough to warrant a character. but thats no longer the case so ill just say fun characters, amazing stage potential and catchy music.

i got my idea to the top!

chances: 50% this could go either way. while spirit events are probably simple enough compared to most other things if development is coming to a stop then we're not likely to get anymore. there might still be some things after the last character like patches so there could be time to make some more events. so yeah in think it could happen either way just a question of how quickly dev stops.

want: 100% id love some splatoon 3 spirits and botw2 spirits. odds are good we're getting the dread ones but id love some ones for next years games. plus some more 3rd parties like neo twewy and GAA. spirit events have been great fun and i love to see them continue.

noms to legends trainer

GoodGrief741 · Sep 10, 2021

[Rerate] Gene x125
Sukapon x125
Lugia x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Agumon x115
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
Legends Trainer x100
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x75

100 - 51

Echo (Olimar) x66
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Kamek x40
Omori x35
Nabbit x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Mii Costume: Rayman x30
Concept: Dynasty Warriors character x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Mii Costume: Scorpion x20
Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
Kraid x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Gene punches past D.Va to take first place. Sukapon fights his way through Crazy Taxi character, Eggman, Lugia, Agumon, and D.Va and duels with Gene for first place. Lugia soars past Agumon and D.Va into third place. Captain Charlie lands on 12th place, tied with More ATs as one new item, Dwight Fairfield, Rocket League rep, and SNES-era Final Fantasy rep.

Kamek conjures more than 25 noms.

Today's new concepts are Dynasty Warriors character, with 30 noms; and CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards, with 20.

WeirdChillFever · Sep 10, 2021

Riddim Havin’
Chance: 12%
I can’t really say a lot more than “yeah it could happen”, but since this is the final character and a Rhythm Heaven rep would be the oldest first party DLC character by the virtue of being a whopping whole generation old since the last outing, I can’t rate it very high. I do have to say that there‘s not really a whole lot of characters that can do what Rhythm Heaven can do, so it would still fall in line of the novel comtrols both Min Min, Steve and Kazuya brought among others.

Want: 70%
Depends on the character, but I’d generally like to see it.

Spirit Events post-fighters pass
Chance: 60%
I feel like this is more likely than not, there’s some high-profile games coming up very soon that could well use a quick ad

Want: 100%
Sure? I wouldn’t be against it for the reason it’d be free content.

Noms go to Dynasty Warriors character.

GoodGrief741 · Sep 10, 2021

Is Rhythm Heaven the best thing humanity has created?

Chance: 14%
Rhythm Heaven is one of the biggest first party franchises without a playable character. In terms of content it's woefully lacking, with only Spirits and 3 songs. 3 songs!!! For a rhythm game!!! It's absurd and could easily use the boost that would come from a challenger pack.

Rhythm Heaven also has a few factors that could make it stand out from the pack. It's the absolute frontrunner for the rhythm game genre, with the creator being owned by Sony and the likes of Guitar Hero and DDR not lending themselves to a fighter. We also know the Chorus Kids were considered as a fighter in 4. We can presume that they were cut for reasons similar to the Ice Climbers, and while technical limitations are still an issue (ask poor Rex), I think it's likely that the Switch can handle three low-detail singing boys as a fighter.

However, the fact remains that RH is dormant. Given what we've heard from people involved, a new game is at best only starting development. While its characters have support, it's split and doesn't have the major backing that other fan favorites do. And sister series WarioWare is getting a new entry (today in fact) that got a **** ton of advertising and seems much better poised to get a character.

Want: 100%
I think the go-to reps are Joe and the Kids, but my personal preference goes to the Reporter & Wrestler. I love that dynamic. Anyway, Rhythm Heaven is a delight and there's nothing that could make a rep anything less than a top-tier addition to Smash.

Looking forward to that Golden Sun Spirit Event in 2038

Chance: **** if I know
Leaning towards no because it's more Nintendo to just ditch a game. But I guess Spirits are a separate team so they could keep on trucking without keeping Sakurai chained to Ultimate.

Want: 0%
I don't play Spirits mode. Not in base game, not as DLC. I don't even touch the Spirit Boards that come with fighters. So I don't care. I do know that this might make Sakurai stick around (which I don't want because dude go make something else) and that the subsistence of Spirit Events would undoubtedly lead to some people taking it as evidence that we're totally getting a third Pass you guys. So I can do without this.

Noms: Sukapon
Octavio prediction: 10.8%
Soma prediction: 5.66%

chocolatejr9 · Sep 11, 2021

Abstain. I have no opinion on either.

Nominations: Agumon x5

Sari · Sep 12, 2021

I'm gonna end the day now. I'm thinking we'll get a Direct announcement sometime after Monday so we should be able to squeeze in at least one more rating in (possibly our last). But first my ratings:

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Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep

Chance: 15%
We know that a RH rep may have been considered for Smash 4. All of the Gematsu leak characters made it in except for Chrom (who Sakurai stated was considered) and Chorus Kids (who had filenames in the game). We're not sure why they were scrapped for that game, but perhaps Sakurai got everything sorted out and was able to put them into Ultimate. However, the RH series has been dormant for a while so I can see Sakurai ignoring them and a RH character joining the lineup of many other cut characters from Smash's past.

Now as far as who the RH rep would be, I think it could be Chorus Kids > Karate Joe > Rhythm Girl > Reporter/Wrestler > Anyone else in that order. Chorus Kids were most likely the reps for SSB4 so I can see them having priority. However, they could be another case like Rex where they were too hard to make, so perhaps Sakurai settled for someone simpler. One of the most interesting aspects of the RH series is that there isn't a real main character so the answer for who the rep would be is more unknown than even ARMS.

Want: 90%
My exact score will depend on who it is but in general I'd love for this to happen. The RH series is really great and one that I think Nintendo should bring back to the limelight. My personal choice would be either Chorus Kids or Rhythm Girl. I'm not too keen on Karate Joe since I feel most of the other choices are better, but just about any additional RH representation is great. I'm also a big fan of Smash being used to revive inactive IPs so I'm all for this.

Also while looking up wiki stuff to prepare for this rating, I just learned that the girlfriend from Friday Night Funkin' is based on Rhythm Girl. The things you learn from this thread.

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Post-game spirit events

Chance: 60%
I think this has a pretty good shot, specifically for upcoming first party games. Obviously not every new Nintendo game is going to get a character so I can see promo spirit events being used for Nintendo's big games of 2022. Splatoon 3 and the BotW sequel are looking to be the most likely right now. I don't know if third party spirits would have a chance for post-game since that would require deals for other companies which Nintendo probably wouldn't go through the effort of doing.

Want: 20%
I pretty much never do spirit battles so I wouldn't really care about this. Heck I still haven't even completed World of Light which really shows how much I care about spirits. Extra spirits would be nice I suppose, but it isn't really something I'd be clamoring for. I sort of want Ultimate speculation to end with the final character as I feel that it's gone on long enough. Having to constantly wait each Tuesday to see which characters may be affected with Smash speculation isn't something that I'd want.

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DJ Octavio chance prediction: 2.00%
Soma Cruz chance prediction: 1.40%

Nominations:
Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards x20

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Day over.

Rate DJ Octavio (Splatoon) & Soma Cruz (Castlevania).

Predict Echo (Bowser) & Concept: Destroy All Humans content.

Megadoomer

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Music for today:

DJ Octavio

Soma Cruz

fogbadge · Sep 12, 2021

impudent little inksquirts

chances: 20% his best shot is if nintendo as sak to put in a splatoon 2 character. to early to say if he'd work for a splatoon 3 character. the question then becomes would he chose him? well hard to say hes certainly popular among splatoon fans not sure about smash fans. but hes still gotta compete with other splatoon characters like the octolings who seem to be the more popular. of course his role as villain of the series (so far) may give him an edge but who really knows with sakurai. in short i think a splatton character could happen but i think other characters are more likely.

want: 70% i do like splatoon characters and hed be fun. might be kinds fun to see him out of the mechs/snow globe for a change. also it would be funny to see people getting hit by sticks of wasabi. with his moves and possible stages and more splatoon music would make for a nice little pack to round out the pass. the are other splatoon characters i want more but id be ok with this.

abstain on soma as i only found out who he was a couple years ago to the surprise of the user who told me who he was. noms go to legends trainer

Cutie Gwen · Sep 12, 2021

Chance: 1% He's not an AT. That's it really, cause otherwise Alucard would be picked over him every single time, but as for Soma's own strengths, well, he had multiple games, one of which often being seen as the best MetroidVania of the series after SotN so that's something. Beyond that? Nothing beyond a potential rerelease of Aria due to the Advance Collection or something that got leaked a while ago, which I highly doubt was even on the radar when the second pass was greenlit.

Want: 100% While they're not my favourite in the series, Aria of Sorrow is ****ing excellent and Dawn of Sorrow is incredibly enjoyable, especially thanks to Soma's skillsets which allow him to do pretty much anything, the way I imagine his Soul mechanic getting adapted is similar to Android 21 from DBFZ, a command grab which gives him a specific attack depending on the type of character he absorbed, so like, Soul Steal a character associated with fire, your special now becomes the classic Hellfire attack, land it on a swordie, you get the Valkyrie soul. You get to do something similar to Kirby without needing to be nearly as intricate. I also think the Sorrow duology is rather lacking in the music department in Smash so seeing it get more songs would be a treat, especially if we get a version of Crash Into The Dark Night that doesn't feel so... Toned down. I also ****ing love Soma's outfit and think it's one of the coolest looks the series could get and considering the twist about Soma, well, let's just say he'd be a welcome addition to the roster just because of that.

Splatoons fans when they hear someone drowning in piss

Chance: 1% Splatoon is Nintendo's biggest new IP in a long time and that's undeniable, especially with the third game scheduled for next year, but I feel Octavio has a major issue. Competition in Octoling, the more popular and marketed characters for the series. Like, every point in Octavio's favour applies equally to Octolings with the only real reason why this even got rated seems to because the oh so lovable "more villains" demand as if we didn't get quite a few but don't Octlings also fit in this? I remember hearing that they were villains in the first game after all. All in all, this is just a character outclassed in every way.

Want: Abstain, didn't like Splatoon but I'm not familiar enough with the character to have an opinion

Whoever makes the first joke to get me to laugh gets my noms

WeirdChillFever · Sep 12, 2021

What’s up, Oc?
Chance: 7%
I don’t really feel he’s marketed all that much compared to other Splatoon characters. Octo Valley is not exactly the focus of Splatoon 2 and its bodacious multiplayer gameplay, and he also missed the Deepsea Metro to the Octo Expansion. He does have seniority over quite a few other characters, but if your place on the pecking order is tied with Cuttlefish, I’m not sure that inspires confidence.

Want: 70%
I would be the most hillarious kind of wrong in my prediction of Off the Hook, but I wouldn’t hate that at all.

Somehow shares his last name with the zodiac killer
Chance: 5%
If not for the Belmonts, it would’ve been Alucard who would’ve been chosen for the Castlevania nod. Alucard is pre-occupied with various other roles, so Soma comes to help. That seems to be the idea. But I kinda feel like Sakurai ws eventually content with the choice he made, so adding Soma would be like adding Decidueye (although minus the Game Freak specific business), which I don’t feel is happening either. Still, not impossible, considering what we’ve seen with Sepiroth.

Want: 60%
I just think he’s neat

Noms go to Dynasty Warriors character

DrifloonEmpire · Sep 12, 2021

Cutie Gwen said:
only real reason why this even got rated seems to because the oh so lovable "more villains" demand

The hell?! I rated him because I thought he's be a much more interesting choice for Splatoon and because, despite his importance, he had never been rated. It had nothing to do with the "muh villains" trend you speak of.

Now, time for the ratings!

DJ Octavio

Chance: 20% - Being the last rep, I most likely expect it to be a first party at this point, especially with rumors of the Direct next week. And of course, Splatoon remains popular so there's always a good possibility of getting chosen there. So what does the DJ bring in over the other Splatoon competition? Firstly, a unique playstyle/moveset. Octolings and even the idol characters use typical inkling weapons to fight, and Sakurai may see that this territory overlaps too much with the already playable inklings. While Octavio is a hovering character with all sorts of gadgets at his disposal. Second, I don't think that, unlike ARMS, there's any kind of director or developer bias towards a certain character who would ask for said character to be chosen should Sakurai be assigned to include any Splatoon rep. and third, DJ Octavio's series-spanning and not tied to any particular game (Octolings, while in 3, get their focus in 2, same with Off the Hook, who more than likely won't be 3's idol duo). There's always some kind of excuse to bring Octavio back. His other more series-spanning competition, the Squid Sisters, are assist trophies AND costumes. Now said costumes don't hurt the DJ thanks to Kazuya, but we still could end up with a situation where Sakurai decides that Inkling is "enough" for Splatoon's debut Smash game and Ninteod doesn't ask Sakurai for another. Octavio also isn't marketed as much as his competition, but marketing potential doesn't always win out. So the DJ has his advantages and disadvantages, and while he might not seem as likely going up against the waifu squad, he's a dark horse that really shouldn't be counted out.

Want: 50% - In my Octoling rating I was extremely bullish on Splatoon getting another character this early on (especially before Pikmin) but DJ Octavio would be an exception that I'd be actually pretty happy with. His personality is hilarious (even if it's just a localization thing) and his moveset would be incredibly unique. An awesome idea for a hovering character if we don't get Eggman, Octavio's got giant fists, sound attacks, ink weapons, and so much more at his disposal that would make for a fantastic and unique moveset. Honestly, he would be so much more interesting to me than his competition. Furthermore, unlike the other Splatoon reps, he's completely isolated from all of the baggage and elements about Splatoon that I dislike. So if we had to get another Splatoon rep, he'd be my pick!

Abstaining on Soma Cruz, but if we get another Castlevania rep next game Alucard is gonna be such an issue of competition for him that I can't see him making the jump instead.

Nominations:
Captain Charlie x15

Predictions:
Bowser Echo - 2.15% - Sakurai stated explicitly that there would be no more echoes, but still gotta factor in some points for different opinions. Sakurai never seems to give much love to Bowser anyway.
Destroy All Humans Content - 1.38%

BowserKing · Sep 12, 2021

DJ Octavio
Chance: 5%. Given Splatoon’s popularity, DJ Octavio’s chance would be high, but with one slot left and two villains in the second fighter’s pass, it’s quite low. But lots of thing she are possible.
Want: 75%. DJ Octavio would be fun to play as, and I can see him have a rematch with the Inklings. Overall, DJ Octavio would make a great Smash Bros rep.

Soma Cruz
Chance: 5%. We have yet to have a Konami character in the fighter’s pass, but with one slot left and two Castlevania reps, Soma would seem unlikely. But Smash has seen 3 characters from the same franchise get in since Melee.
Want: 50% Soma would be fun to play as, and would be surprisingly to see Soma to fight Dracula. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.
Prediction: Echo: Bowser (5%) and Destroy all Humans content (5%)
Noms: 5 for Lugia

DanganZilla5 · Sep 12, 2021

Disco inferno!

Chance: 7%

D.J Octavio is the main antagonist of both games, which makes him a viable pick for the next Splatoon character. But how likely is that going to happen? Well with Splatoon 3 being way off into the future and thus most likely missing out on the promo aspect, we are left with the two Splatoon games we have. In terms of content, Splatoon isn't exactly hurting and while they could bring in more content from the Octo expansion pack, that does bring up my other big concern which is competition. From what I've seen, the Octolings are more popular and have much louder Smash support. But overall I see plenty of other first party I.Ps getting more attention from Nintendo instead.

Want: 10%

He's cool and has a really good design but like I said in the past I didn't care for Splatoon. Online multiplayer games aren't typically my type of game and it couldn't hold my attention. In terms of the content we already have in Smash, I'm fine with it and I think Splatoon is fine for now. I can see it getting another character in the next game but for this game? Maybe but my bets are on the Octolings.

____________________________

Some Cruising around Dracula's Castle

Chance: 1%

Soma Cruz is the protagonist of two Castlevania games and has made appearances in a couple crossover games. Now he is supposed to be a reincarnated form of Dracula, although with a different appearance, personality and he uses different weapons. It's a bit confusing, but basically he is a different entity to the Dracula everyone knows. This means that Dracula already being represented through a boss fight shouldn't be a problem for Soma. Now in terms of Castlevania as a whole it did get a lot of love in the base game and the content spreads throughout the series so it feels very well represented. This tells me that if Konami were to get approached again they would be asked for a different series. And if another Castlevania character was chosen it will most likely be Alucard due to him being very popular and he almost got in the base roster. Basically, there isn't much pointing towards Soma Cruz and he has an uphill battle to go through.

Want: 45%

I'm a sucker for Castlevania and Soma Cruz has such a great design and would be very fun to play as. But I already got all the Castlevania content I wanted and I want other Konami series to get represented like Contra, Silent Hill, and even Frogger.

Predictions:
Echo: Bowser - 1%
Destroy All Humans content - 4%

Noms: Dynasty Warriors character x20

waddledeeonredyoshi · Sep 12, 2021

DJ Octavio
Chance: 0%
If we're getting a Splatoon rep as the final character I fail to see how it could be anyone besides the Octolings. They've become way more iconic and I can't see Octavio, a NPC final boss centric to the single player of Splatoon, be added to represent a game that's a multiplayer shooter at it's core. I know he's the final boss of both games yet at the same time he doesn't feel all that important, especially not in 2 where his boss fight was way less memorable and honestly, things like Octo Expansion and Salmon run have easily overshadowed that campaign to the point where I feel he might not even return as the villain for next game's story mode. Octavio for now just doesn't feel like he's comparable to the other great Nintendo villains we have and he still has to prove himself as a mainstay IMO. He's just not a big enough deal right now to have been chosen.

Want: 15%
He had a pretty neat final boss fight in Splatoon... one. More Splatoon content is also not something I'd say no to. Though at the same time, I don't really care?... There's not much interesting about Octavio himself imo. I know he's a wacky Discoball flying, pun spewing, DJ Octopus but that honestly feels kinda par for the course for the Splatoon world and I don't feel like there's enough to him to really warrant a Smash inclusion. The Octolings are infinitely more sensible picks. Frankly, if I really wanted a cartoony machine flying villain which I'd mostly want for their content, I'd just ask for Eggman.

Pretty unfortunate last name
Chance: 0%
The protagonist of a Castlevania game or two, which seem to be pretty well regarded. That's kinda were the positives end though since there's no timeline where Cruz gets in before Alucard. Not to mention Castlevania has a boatload of content already and more than likely isn't getting a new fighter anytime soon.

Want: Abstaining
Bowser echo: 0.6%
Destroy all humans: 2%
Gene x10

a smart guy · Sep 12, 2021

DJ Octavio:
Chance 3%: The antagonist from Splatoon would be an unexpected addition, but I could see it happening. Probably in the next game though.
Want 25%: I'm not against him getting in, but it wouldn't be my favorite choice.

De La Cruz:
Chance 0%: Who? We have plenty of Castlevania representation already. There's no need to add in someone else.
Want 0%: Again, who? It would be a really dissappointing end to the DLC packs.

It's been so long since I've been in one of these threads. In other news, Big Brain Academy got a new game announced out of nowhere. It's probably nothing, but we should rate the main character just in case.

Dr. Lobe x5

Laniv · Sep 12, 2021

It's time to... D-D-D-DROP THE SEA BASS! (or fried squid rings for the European readers)

Chance: 3%

If this were Splatoon 1, I'd give him a slightly higher chance. However, with Splatoon 2, and the surge of Octoling popularity with Octo Expansion (and honestly I still think the Octolings would outpace him in popularity even without that DLC), poor old Octavio has been left in the dust. What's more, Splatoon 3 is still far away, so the coveted "shill pick" isn't very likely for him, assuming he's even in 3 to start with.

Want: 50%

Sure, why not. More villains are always a plus, and I guess he'd be a pretty cool mech/vehicle user. I'd prefer Octolings, but he'll do.

Abstain on Soma Cruz cause I only know very little about him

Predictions for Echo: Bowser: 2% Chance, 25% Want
Predictions for Destroy All Humans content: 8% Chance, 37% Want

Nominate Nabbit x 5

Sari · Sep 13, 2021

DJ Octavio

Chance: 1%
It really does feel like Octolings or bust when it comes to another Splatoon character. They're just much more popular and I feel would be the better suited as the next Splatoon rep. Splatoon also got a pretty good amount of content in Ultimate so I don't know if another Splatoon character would be a priority for them.

I'll give a small chance score just because Splatoon 3 is coming up and they could possibly do a really forced and out-of-nowhere promotional pick involving DJ Octavio. Also Octolings may or may not be better suited as an echo, so that might count them out for CP11.

Want: 0%
I've played a bit of the first Splatoon and know some of story so I feel like I can rate this. In the colorful world of Splatoon, DJ Octavio just doesn't interest me at all. I'll take Octolings and even Squid Sisters/Off the Hook before this since I feel like they're just a bigger part of the whole Splatoon franchise. I feel like DJ Octavio would be better off as a boss or an AT rather than as a full-fledged character. Plus villains in Smash seem like something that still needs work on, so I'd rather have other more iconic ones get in first such as Eggman before even considering this.

This is all without saying that I think Splatoon has enough content at the moment and that I never really got into it, so even the characters I mentioned wanting earlier aren't exactly at the top of my most wanted list. Octolings in particular I think would be better off as just an echo of Inkling.

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Soma Cruz

Chance: 0%
I doubt we'll be getting another Castlevania rep in Ultimate. The series is up there with Tekken and SNK as one of the best repped new franchises in Ultimate. Right now it has two characters, a stage, 27 spirits (29 if you count Simon and Richter), 34 songs, an assist trophy, and even a boss. Sephiroth was more understandable since Final Fantasy content was barebones at the time, but unfortunately for Castlevania it seems like the plates are full. It's an even more jarring comparison when you remember that all of the Castlevania stuff we got was in Ultimate, whereas the pre-Sephiroth Final Fantasy content was all a carryover from Smash 4. I think other third party series would have priority for CP11 considering how good the Castlevania content is.

Sakurai also said in an interview that Alucard was almost chosen as the Castlevania rep. Because of this as well as Alucard's general popularity, I think he would be the next Castlevania rep if we were to ever get another one.

Want: Abstain
I still have yet to get into the Castlevania series so I will abstain. He looks cool but I feel like I'd prefer Alucard more.

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Bowser echo chance prediction: 1.00%
Destroy All Humans content: 1.50%

Nominations:
Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards x25

Gorgonzales · Sep 13, 2021

DJ Octavio
Chance: 1%

Not really feeling this. We've got a fair share of villains in FP2 already with Sephiroth and Kazuya. I don't see Octavio requested as often as Octolings, but then again, a majority of the characters in FP2 weren't frontrunners in speculation so who knows. I could see Sakurai picking him over Octolings due to being more unique, but there's plenty more villains to choose from gaming other than him. He could work as a Splatoon 3 shill pick but I'm just not seeing it.

Want: 35%
He's a samurai helmet-wearing octopus who uses wasabi stalks in a DJ mech that's equipped with giant fists. That already puts him a leg above a lot of other characters in terms of uniqueness. I'd welcome another villain into the roster as well. I'm not big on Splatoon and he's not on my list of must-have requests, but he'd be a neat fighter. I'd rather have Eggman before this guy, though.

Soma Cruz: Abstain

All noms go to King Harkinian.

DrifloonEmpire · Sep 13, 2021

Gorgonzales said:
All noms go to King Harkinian.

A man of culture, I see!

GoodGrief741 · Sep 13, 2021

Tom Cruise

Chance: 2.5%
Small are the odds of Soma getting in over the iconic Alucard. In terms of Castlevania he's the man to beat, popular and emblematic enough that he was considered over even Simon freaking Belmont. I'd say Soma is second or third in line after the 'Card. He is the modern (or most modern, I guess) face of the franchise, a hugely important figure in lore, and all-around beloved by fans. That (and the fact that he's, you know, Dracula) might be enough to elevate him in Sakurai's eyes to "third lead" status over the likes of Trevor, Shanoa, etc. But then again, add Alucard and Soma and that's half the Castlevania roster consisting of white-haired pretty boys, so maybe Sakurai would go for someone else.

All of the above is hypothetical though, I don't think there's a chance he gets in over Alucard. The only reason would be if Sakurai wanted to avoid promoting an Assist Trophy, which, come on.

Generally speaking though I don't know how likely a third Castlevania rep is over options like Contra, Frogger, or even Raiden.

Want: 80%
I'll echo Gwen in saying that Soma has the potential to be a super cool and unique fighter. His games are some of the best in the series and I love the direction they took the narrative and lore in. Plus any representation of Castlevania as an actual, potentially alive videogame franchise is welcome. The score isn't higher because it would be super weird if Alucard was skipped but I'd get over it relatively quickly since at the end of the day I'd like both to get in.

Octotune

Chance: 5%
I agree with everyone else that the Octolings are the most likely candidate for Splatoon. They're popular, and they're playable, which is more and more important as Sakurai tries to make movesets that translate the gameplay of the source material.

I do think there's a way in for Octavio however. I doubt he won't be in Splatoon 3, he's the series' main bad guy. So he could work as a promotional rep for that game as well as Octoling could. And if Nintendo asked for a Splatoon rep, and left who up to Sakurai, it's possible that he'd find Octavio more fitting for a unique character slot than the Octolings. The good old "Chrom is too derivative, have his two deuteragonists instead" scenario. I don't think that's very likely though because, again, Sakurai has been skewing toward playable characters in the past few games.

Want: 100%
I love me a good villain. And I think it's an important step in a franchise to establish who its main villain is in the eyes of the public. It's not just Mario who's iconic, it's Mario and Bowser. So to have Octavio's reputation elevated from main villain that most people don't know to the series' equivalent of Ganon would be big for Splatoon.

Noms: Sukapon
Echo Bowser prediction: 3%
DAH prediction 4.5%

GoodGrief741 · Sep 14, 2021

Once again, no calcs on Saturday. However this time it was deliberate! I got diagnosed with carpal tunnel syndrome, so I've been trying to cut down on mouse and keyboard usage. That's why I did calcs on short bursts, and I figured I'd finish them tonight so that they can coincide with the noms update.

Sukapon x145
[Rerate] Gene x135
Lugia x120
[Rerate] Agumon x120
D.Va x115
Legends Trainer x115
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x75

100 - 51

Echo (Olimar) x71
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Kamek x40
Nabbit x40
Concept: Dynasty Warriors character x40
Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards x40
Omori x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Mii Costume: Rayman x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Mii Costume: Scorpion x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
Kraid x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Sukapon takes the crown from Gene! Turns out even the God Hand is no match for a good head toss. Agumon claws past D.Va and digiduels Lugia for third place. Legends Trainer passes Crazy Taxi character and Eggman and challenges D.Va to a battle for fifth.

Concept: CP11 is revealed at the Game Awards passes 25 noms.

---

Calcs (finally!)

Giygas
1.05% Chance - 32.78% Want
The winner of predictions was

DrifloonEmpire by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 1.23%

Stage: Bowser's Castle
1.14% Chance - 96.50% Want
One thing worth pointing out is that of the 10 want scores this got, only one wasn't 100%
The winner of predictions was

WeirdChillFever also with 1.23%
This is now the fourth least likely concept. Conversely, it is also the most wanted concept and the highest want score ever, unseating Phoenix Wright!

Sackboy
1.01% Chance - 45.22% Want
The winner of predictions was

DanganZilla5 with a near-exact 1.00%. You win 10 extra noms!

Tails
11.38% Chance - 62.50% Want
The first time we rated him he got 9.52% chance and 56.93% want. The last time we rated him he got 10.74% chance and 70.00% want. Interestingly, Tails' scores rose after his Mii Costume, and they keep growing! Quite the speculation phenomenon.
The winner of predictions was

BowserKing with a precise 10.00%

Kaede Akamatsu
7.00% Chance - 53.00% Want
The winner of predictions was

DanganZilla5 with the highest prediction, an 8.00%
Given the high number of abstentions it's safe to say that most of you didn't care for yet another Danganronpa rating.

Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep
14.63% Chance - 89.29% Want
The winner of predictions was

Sari with 14.32%
This is the second most wanted concept behind Bowser's Castle. (Also the franchise still has two characters in the top 5 most wanted first party characters)

Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass
66.33% Chance - 70.00% Want
The winner of predictions was

DrifloonEmpire with 62.27%, the highest prediction of the day.
You guys sure are confirmed in this, because it's the likeliest concept of them all! In fact, this concept has the highest chance score out of anything that hasn't been confirmed yet, and the third highest chance score ever.

Giygas, Sackboy, and Bowser's Castle are the newest members of the Less Likely Than Goku club.

3BitSaurus 5

Artix 15

Awakining 5

BowserKing 10

Dan Quixote 10

DanganZilla5 15

DaUsername 217

Delzethin 5

DrifloonEmpire 10

Golden Icarus 5

Inue Houji 74

Mr. MR 75

Nemuresu 10

Ninjaed 20

Perkilator 5

Ridrool64 25

Sari 5

SKX31 55

Troykv 15

WeirdChillFever 5

Wunderwaft 5

BowserKing · Sep 14, 2021

My votes for Boss: Ender Dragon are given to Echo: Olimar instead

fogbadge · Sep 14, 2021

question for the guys in charge: will we be doing a rate the pass over all after the last character like i believe we did last time? cause ive got a suggestion for something that could follow it

Sari · Sep 15, 2021

fogbadge said:
question for the guys in charge: will we be doing a rate the pass over all after the last character like i believe we did last time? cause ive got a suggestion for something that could follow it

Sometime after CP11 is revealed, we're going to be doing a rerate of all the characters. We'll also have some other days like talking about our favorite/least favorite speculation periods, characters you think will be likely for the next game, etc.

Today's rating will end sometime after Wednesday afternoon. I want to make sure there isn't a Direct announcement before ending the day.

fogbadge · Sep 15, 2021

Sari said:
Sometime after CP11 is revealed, we're going to be doing a rerate of all the characters. We'll also have some other days like talking about our favorite/least favorite speculation periods, characters you think will be likely for the next game, etc.

Today's rating will end sometime after Wednesday afternoon. I want to make sure there isn't a Direct announcement before ending the day.

I was gonna suggest overall roster satisfaction

chocolatejr9 · Sep 15, 2021

Abstain. I know nothing about either.

Nominations: Agumon x5

Sari · Sep 15, 2021

Day over.

Rate Echo: Bowser (in other words, the idea of Bowser getting any echo) and Concept: Destroy All Humans content.

Predict Magolor (Kirby) & Fulgore (Killer Instinct)

Megadoomer

-----

Music for today:

Bowser Music

Destroy All Humans (courtesy of

DanganZilla5 )

DanganZilla5 · Sep 15, 2021

Bowser echo

Chance: 0%

Nah fam. The DLC has been very consistent so far and we've gotten a total of zero DLC echoes. I guess the last fighter could come with one but I wouldn't dare bet on that at this point. But this concept would most likely rely on a echo pass which is plausible if they do more DLC down the road but that's a big if. Now when it comes to characters that could echo Bowser we pretty much just have Dry Bowser and......Blue Bowser...who just isn't happening unless the Nintendo execs were drunk while choosing the DLC content. That just leaves Dry Bowser who...I guess could happen but I don't see many people ask for him and if an echo pass did happen there are many other viable candidates that would have priority over Dry Bowser. I was originally going to give this my good ol' .01 score but I just think this is a real stretch.

Want: 60%

This concept does include Blue Bowser which....lmao no. But I would be happy with Dry Bowser. I think he's cool and I enjoy playing as Bowser. This would also mean that we could get other DLC echoes which could be very good depending on the choices. But overall I'm not heavily clamoring for this and can live without it.

_________________________________________

Wise cracking alien Jack Nicholson

And to make this clear: By content, I'm talking about anything from a challenger pack to a Mii costume to a spirit event. Any of those.

Chance: 5%

My main argument for Destroy All Humans getting something is this: If a random as **** game like Sakuna can get a spirit event then DAH can get something too. I know, I know, that doesn't mean that we'll get spirit events for everything but, just let a man dream okay.

Now let me give you all a brief history on Destroy All Humans. It's a game that came out in 2005 where you play as an alien named Crypto who is sent to Earth to gather DNA from human brains to help his species stabilize their cloning process. While doing this, he ends up getting caught in the middle of a government conspiracy and has to do a bunch of espionage and do lots of fun killing to take control of the U.S. The game got three sequels, including one on the Wii and was a cult hit. DAH was a big deal for its time because it gave you the rare opportunity to play as the alien going around on killing sprees and piloting a flying saucer to level an entire town.

Now of course we have to bring up the remake. It sold better than THQ Nordic anticipated and it got a Switch port so by all means it could get a spirit event. A Mii costume is a bigger stretch but it's plausible. Now another thing to consider is THQ Nordic's relationship with Nintendo. They are not even close to being the biggest western company but they have been supporting the Switch with other titles such as Darksiders so I could see them collaborating with Nintendo on a spirit event.

When it comes to a challenger pack though, unfortunately that is not likely at all. It seems like being a western property is still an obstacle and Crypto isn't nearly as highly requested as Banjo or as popular as Minecraft. And there's the fact that only the original game got released in Japan, not even the remake (From what I researched). So yeah Crypto's chances of becoming playable are bleak but this concept is somewhat saved by the possibility of a Mii costume or spirit event. I can at least hold my breath for those.

Want: 100%

Yes please! Crypto is one of my most wanted characters and Destroy All Humans is one of my top favorite series! I'll start out with the moveset potential which is pretty crazy. Putting aside the saucer weapons which realistically would be saved for the final smash, Crypto has obtained about a dozen ground weapons throughout the series. He has his trusty Zap-O-Matic which is self-explanatory. He also has the Disintegrator Ray which vaporizes humans and can easily destroy vehicles, the Ion Detonator which is pretty much a grenade launcher except the bombs vaporize stuff into particle, then there is the Burrow Beast which travels underground and comes up to chomp on people, the Meteor Strike which summons meteors, the Ball Lightning which shoots out balls of electricity that zap any nearby enemies, the Superballer which shoots rainbow balls that bounce around and when they touch a person or object, they get stuck to the ball and get taken for a ride, and other fantastic weapons. Crypto also has psychic powers which allows him to pick up things with his mind, magnetize objects together, and stop time.

In terms of stages, there's plenty to choose from. Turnipseed Farm because farms seem to be synonymous with aliens, the Area 42 military base, Capital City, Bay City, Takoshima City, etc. And the music. OMG the music is great. It uses the theremin instrument to give the first game that 50s sci-fi atmosphere and it's unlike anything we have in Smash. But don't just take my word for it, have a listen to some additional tracks: