Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DanganZilla5]

Here we go again with yet another Danganronpa rating! puhuhuhu

Chance: 15%

This is the same score that I gave Monokuma a little bit ago. Honestly at this point with how this pass has been going I can see Sakurai choosing either Monokuma or the protagonists so they are at the same level of likeliness to me. Now to repeat the same points I made for Monokuma: The series is niche which fits with the last spot. It's one of the more popular I.Ps in the genre. There is a Switch port so it's prime for shilling. And Spike Chunsoft is buddy buddy with NIntendo. So there is a good chance of this happening.

Want: 99%

While I would prefer Monokuma to be the Danganronpa rep as I think he would be funnier and overall more entertaining and unique, I would be thrilled to have any Danganronpa reps. Now instead of repeating the same points I've discussed over 9000 times before like the awesome music and unique charm of the series, I'll talk about what the protagonists can do. A large part of the gameplay consists of truth bullets, which would be translated into Smash as projectiles that the protagonists can use, just like how they use evidence in the Danganronpa as bullets to shatter testimonies. They can also incorporate elements from some of the minigames as well as certain items that are involved in the cases. I imagine it would be similar to Phoenix's UMvC3 moveset, with some changes of course. I can't see Hajime or Kaede tripping, sneezing or doing those kinds of things like Phoenix.

Speaking of the protagonists, I like them all. Makoto is....basic, but he's the cool kind of basic. Hajime is more interesting I think, and Kaede is one of my favorite characters in the series. I relate to her in a lot of ways and she is a breath of fresh air for a protagonist.

Prediction:
Meat Boy - 7.5%
Corvo - 3%

Noms: Destroy All Humans x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 642: Meat Boy (Meat Boy) & Corvo Attano (Dishonored)
Day 643: Bandana Dee (Kirby) & Kiryu (Yakuza)
Day 644: Tetra (The Legend of Zelda) & Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear)
Day 645: Ori (Ori) & Gunvolt (Azure Striker Gunvolt)
Day 646: Ratchet & Clank (Ratchet & Clank) & Boss: Rayquaza (Pokémon)
Day 647: Giygas (Mother) & Stage: Bowser's Castle (Mario)
Day 648: Sackboy (LittleBIGPlanet) & Tails (Sonic the Hedgehog) & Kaede Akamatsu (Danganronpa)

Surprise! After much deliberation, the team has decided that starting today, all days will be double days. That means that it'll be easier to get your characters rated, and it will also hopefully make each day more engaging. The top seven is hereafter rechristened the top fourteen!

The next top fourteen consists of Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass, Destroy All Humans content, Echo (Bowser), DJ Octavio, Magolor, Fulgore, Soma Cruz, Boss: Ender Dragon, Mii Costume: Alex Kidd, Mii Costume: Monika, Rhythm Heaven rep, Stage: Tetris, D.Va, and a tie between Gene and Off The Hook.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku pre-Concept: Danganronpa protagonist

Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x175
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x170
Echo (Bowser) x163
DJ Octavio x160
Magolor x155
Fulgore x152
Soma Cruz x147
Boss: Ender Dragon x143
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x135
Stage: Tetris x125
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
Off The Hook x110

150 - 101

[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Agumon x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
E.M.M.I. x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
Lugia x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Nabbit x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Sari waddledeeonredyoshi DrifloonEmpire BowserKing DanganZilla5 You might want to predict Corvo as well.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Double Days huh? I assume that that lasts until the final character is revealed? I wonder what’s the last time Paper Mario was rated or how we are standing on the various Ubisoft reps

As for DK Rap, I’m abstaining but I’m throwing my noms towards Off The Hook. I’m just not knowledgeable enough about which characters exactly constitute as protagonists and which games or protags are most popular.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Danger on Pa

I was going to just quote my most recent Danganronpa post (can't be more than a couple of months old), but since we're rating Kaede in a week might as well put the effort in now and just quote this for her day.

Danganronpa is a mystery visual novel franchise. It's probably the third most popular franchise in the genre, at least on a global scale (I don't know for sure but I imagine the likes of Tokimeki Memorial might outsell it just from Japanese sales). It looks like the series itself is over, as the creator left Spike Chunsoft, but it's still chugging along in a sense through ports. Case in point: Danganronpa Decadence, a trilogy collection with an all-new mode that was announced at Nintendo's E3. It certainly caught my attention as someone who's speculating a promotional pick, and as someone who always put down the series' odds due to not being on Nintendo systems.

However I have the feeling that this is too little too late. Decadence releases in December right? That's cutting it awfully close. It begs the questions: how long has this been in development? and did Nintendo know about this? Because the thing is, if Nintendo didn't know about Decadence and had an estimated release date when they chose the characters in 2019 it all amounts to nothing and Danganronpa's in the same place as it's been all these years.

Without a major promotional component to the addition, I don't see Danganronpa getting in over other more successful VN series, as all of them could be licensed for relatively cheap.

Chance: 1%
Want: abstain

Noms: EMMI
Meat Boy prediction: 3.68%
Corvo prediction: 7.12%

Double Days huh? I assume that that lasts until the final character is revealed?

That's the plan, we'll see how it goes.

I wonder what’s the last time Paper Mario was rated

July 2020.

 

[BowserKing]

Thanks to the heads up, Corvo gets 5%.

Also, Boss Rayquaza and Stage: Bowser’s Castle is being vote day soon, yes!

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Meat Boy from Super Meat Boy and Corvo Attano from Dishonored.

Predict Bandana Dee from Kirby and Kiryu from Yakuza.

Megadoomer

-----

Music for today:

Meat Boy

Spoiler: Super Meat Boy Music

Corvo Attano

Spoiler: Dishonored Music

 

[fogbadge]

abstain. i only know them from people making fun of them. noms go to spirit events continue after pass

 

[DanganZilla5]

one of the games that broke Rooster Teeth

Chance 5%

Meat Boy is one of the most notable indie games from the past decade. It garnered a lot of success and attention, with it getting plenty of awards and it's on nearly every platform from the past 10 years. It's on the Switch, it got a sequel last year, and the game is brimming with charm. So what's with the low score? Well it's simple. I'm not super confident in indies, I mean look at the indie characters we have in Smash. Sans is from a game that took the world by storm. Cuphead comes from a breakout success, and Shantae is a fan favorite. And yet they all got relegated to being a costume. That just tells me that if we are going to get an indie as the last character, it has to be someone truly special. If I had to bet on someone, it would be Quote or Reimu. I do think Meat Boy deserves to be in Smash but unfortunately it's tough for any indie, even with his qualifications, to make it to playable status.

Want: Abstain

Confession time: I've never played Meat Boy. I've seen videos of it and it looks great but I never felt that push to get it. That also means that I'm clueless on his moveset potential, since all I've seen him do is run.

___________________________

Corvo

Chance: 1%

Dishonored is a series of stealth/action games set around an assassin named Corvo who is capable of using a variety of weapons and abilities. He can teleport short distances, summon rats to attack people, use wind to blow back enemies (Similar to a fellow Bethesda warrior), and has all the standard equipment that assassins usually have. He is a character archetype that I don't think we have in Smash yet and comes from a successful series that sold better than expected and seemingly has a bright future.

However, this is a Bethesda property we are talking about. Remember how I always say "Dragonborn or bust"? Well I stand by that. Fallout and Skyrim got a costume and Doomguy got deconfirmed. Due to those factors, I'm no longer confident in Bethesda at all and I'm not expecting them to have the last fighter. Technically Corvo is now their frontrunner but it's a long shot. Honestly despite Dishonored being decently popular it would be a random choice, and this is coming from someone who just praised it in the last paragraph. Heck it has never been on a Nintendo system so I'm not even sure if Corvo would be on their radar. Overall, this is just something that I can't see happening for Smash.

Want: 70%

This is a weird one for me. Normally I would give a lower score than this because when it comes to Bethesda characters I'm a much bigger advocate for Doomguy and Dragonborn. But since I'm no longer expecting them to be playable I'm more accepting of Corvo. There would be a part of me that would be confused and upset that he got in over those two but still I won't be mad. I enjoyed my time with Dishonored. I didn't care for the story but the gameplay is fantastic and Corvo would have such an interesting moveset and would bring an atmospheric stage with him so he earns some points from me.

Predictions:
Bandana Dee - 15%
Kiryu - 8.5%

Noms: Sam Fisher x20

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Resident Evil 2: Tofu mode

Chance: 0% Usually I'd give a 1 but considering the edgy style of Ed McMillen and Meat Boy being a clear example of that, I just struggle to see how it'd work toned down considering the main villain is a literal fetus and that edgy style of humour is a big part of the appeal behind Meat Boy so no dice, it'dbe too much content that'd have to be cut the way I see it and at that point, I doubt the dev team would even bother

Want: Abstain, haven't really seen enough of Meat Boy in forever to fully comprehend how I'd feel if that makes any sense

Honourable

Chance: 1% The only reason I don't think this is impossible is because I cannot imagine anything that actively makes this too difficult. That being said, it's still a very unlikely scenario for a few reasons. For starters, while Dishonoured is critically acclaimed, I fail to see why it'd get chosen over anything else, it's not like it was a smash hit, knocking everything out of the park. Second, Bethesda. While we know Bethesda has done business with Snash before, see Vault Boy and Dragonborn costumes, I really fail to see why Corvo would be picked when these two merely became costumes, especially the later as Skyrim is one of the biggest games of the last decade. All in all, I don't see it happening

Want: Abstain, still haven't played thede

Soma x max

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Man, yesterday was the lowest turnout I have seen in a while. Maybe people were tired of rating Danganronpa but I hope this trend doesn't continue during the final stretch.

Yeow
Chance: 0%
Super Meat boy is one of the biggest names amongst indie games and really contributed to putting Indie games on the map. Meat boy became pretty iconic and would cameo in multiple indie titles and recieve a sequel 2014. That's really were the positives end tho since simply being an iconic indie character does not feel like it would be enough. We've seen bigger indie succes-stories rise in the mid-late 2010's in particular and Meat boy just doesn't feel as relevant as he used to be. He has seniority on his side, you could say, but so does Quote who still preceded Meat boy by several years and whose game left a way bigger mark on the scene. It also doesn't help that Super Meat Boy has a good amount of Newgrounds edginess and while it may not be the biggest offender of that out there, it's probably still enough for Nintendo to want to avoid. From what I know, Meat Boy himself is also very simplistic that doesn't have any attacks besides the punch he can throw in Forever. Not saying they couldn't think of a moveset but there are certainly other Indie character they'd be able to do more with.

Want: 1%
I do have the game on Switch though I haven't played it in a long while. I do appreciate it but I have no desire to see Meat Boy in Smash as a fighter. The potential just isn't really there for me, both when it comes to the character as well as other things. I guess the stage mights involve a lot of sawblades? Well so could the Knight's if the would really want that for some reason. Anyway, there are still a good few indie characters I'd rather see.

Disrepect
Double zeroes
All the debated Bethesda series (Fallout, TES, Doom) have been deconfirmed in some way. Dishonored is nowhere near as big as any of them and unlike the three has zero games released on any Nintendo platform. I don't have much else to say, I see no reason why this would happen. I know jack squad about this IP and just can't be bothered to check it out at the moment. The other big Bethesda series I have at least contiplated to play at some point.

Bandana Dee: 12.40%
Kiryu: 7.15%
RH rep x15

 

[WeirdChillFever]

It’s a Meat, Mario
Chance: 5%
He has the noteriety behind him, and he does have Nintendo presence. He also has no Smash representation amidst a sea of indies that do, ditto with requests to change that. A hard sell amongst indies, an even harder sell amongst all characters

Want: Abstain
Never played the game

Dishonor Upon You, Your Cow Etcetera
Chance: 1%
Bethesda is affiliated with Smash, but sadly for the Corviknight, the high-profile series of the company are not all depleted and due to the not-all-too-low profile of the series of the company represented it could also be very well possible that Bethesda has no playable representation coming.

Want: Also A Good Old Abstain for the same reason as Meat Boi

Bedazzle D.: 22.22%
Kiryu: 12.34%

Noms go to Off The Hook

 

[BowserKing]

Meatboy

Chance: 5%. With one slot left, Meatboy’s chance is quite low. Not helping matters that most of the represented indie games got Mii Costumes and this could be Meatboy’s fate. But we have been surprised before and we will continue to be surprised.

Want: 50%. Meatboy would be fun to play however and I can see him partner with Steve and a few Miis (with Sans, Cuphead and Shantae outfits) in a match. Overall, Meatboy would make a decent Smash Bros fighter.

Corvo

Chance: 5%. His chance is quite low, not just the fact there is only one slot left, but being from a company now owned by Microsoft, the chance is quite low. But for the next game it could rise.

Want: 50%. Corvo would be fun to play as. Overall, Corvo would make a decent Smash Bros rep, and his appearance would help many learn about his game.

Prediction: Bandanna Dee (10%) and Kazuma (5%)

Noms: 5 for Lugia

 

[GoodGrief741]

some immature joke about beating meat

Chance: 4%
Meat Boy hails from a very successful indie franchise, and one that is still ongoing. It is commonly cited as one of the breakout indie games that defined the medium in the 2000s. It is also present on Nintendo systems, and thanks to being owned by the devs themselves, it's by default the frontrunner for its company (McMillan's other game, Binding of Isaac, has the rights stuck with Nicalis from what I know).

However, I think it's fair to say that while Meat Boy is without a doubt a major influential title in its era, it's not the indie game of its era. That honor goes to Cave Story. Heck, Super Meat Boy started development when Nintendo and Microsoft both approached McMillan to make a WiiWare and XBLA title, no doubt influenced by the success of Cave Story on the former. This by no means ensures that Cave Story would get in first but it does put Meat Boy's major advantage over other indies - seniority - into perspective. Add being Western to the mix, and a debut as a flash game (which would be uncharted territory for Smash) and his odds are not too favorable.

Want: 75%
I'd be okay with Meat Boy. He fits well into Smash I feel. Not much else to say.

Ah yes it is I, Corvo Attain, that is my name for I will attain your valuables

Chance: 0%
Dishonored has never been on a Nintendo console.

Need more? Fine. There's also the fact that Dishonored is a Bethesda franchise. Bethesda got two Mii Costumes this Pass, from their two biggest in-house (well, not too in-house with Fallout, but you know what I mean) franchises. We also know from interviews that they discussed Doomguy but that went nowhere. Unless our favorite Nazi killer BJ Blaskowicz somehow joins the fray with Mecha-Hitler Spirits in tow, that's all the Bethesda frontrunners out of the equation. Frankly it's more likely that they don't get a character than that they get one and it's Corvo, and that's not because of the disconfirmations or this being the last spot. Corvo is just not the Bethesda rep anyone would pick, let alone Nintendo.

Want: 60%
The Dishonored games are solid 8/10 stealth games that kinda try to be immersive sims and don't really get there but are still fun experiences to play through. I think they've made enough of a mark in gaming for Corvo (or Emily, or both) to make sense in Smash someday. And one of my friends is a big fan of the series and he would flip his **** so that would be neat. Personally though I'd rather Corvo wait in line for the big dogs to get in first.

Noms: EMMI
Kiryu prediction: 7.52%
BD prediction: 11.24%

Calcs are a WIP because my computer hates me, they'll probably be done by Monday. Nominations tomorrow.

 

[2006ToyotaTacoma]

Meatboy and Chum Chum

Chance: 2% While Meatboy is on the larger end of Indie franchises, and has a ton of legacy to its name, I'm still just not expecting any Indie reps to really break into a fighter role. Meatboy's big, but Undertale's bigger, and it got a Mii Costume at best. That fact alone speaks volumes about not only the chances of Meatboy, but of any other Indie's chances.

Want: 50% I have no history with Meat Boy, but I wouldn't be against him joining Smash. That's all I have to say for him so yeah, cya.

Brought Dishonor upon my family : (

Chance: 0% No presence whatsoever on Nintendo consoles, and not getting in before Doomguy or Dovahkiin. No need to explain further.

Want: Abstain

Noms: EMMI
Kiryu Prediction: 9%
Bandana Waddle Dee Prediction: 13%

 

[Jomosensual]

Double abstain


All Noms to Joe Random

 

[Yiptap]

Finally... It's time...

Meat Boy
Chance: 3%
First off, what does Meat Boy have going for him? Meat Boy is one of the most influential indies during its time, debuting as a Flash game and making its way into mainstream. It was one of the frontrunners in the beginning of the indie boom. Plus, Meat Boy had an appearance in a Nintendo console, so that's something. However, that's where the benefits end. First of, Team Meat has a somewhat edgy sense of humor. I know that doesn't say much, but it does hold Meat Boy back a bit. I mean, one of his attacks in Indie Pogo was literally flipping off the other fighters. Not to mention the fact that Meat Boy is an indie game that debuted on Newgrounds. Also, despite being an influential indie, other indies such as Quote and Shovel Knight hold more importance than Meat Boy.

Want: 60%
At first, when I began nomming Meat Boy, it was mostly just to choose someone to nom randomly. However, I grew to think Meat Boy would actually be kind of cool. Meat Boy may not have as much importance as other indies, but it still has some importance. Although Meat Boy doesn't have too much moveset potential, I know the Smash team can make something up. Overall, Meat Boy would be pretty cool to see in Smash.


Corvo
Chance: 0%
Where should I start? First off, Dishonored is owned by Bethesda. Two Bethesda characters have already gotten the Mii treatment, so I find it hard to believe that Corvo would get any representation that isn't a Mii Fighter. I also find it really hard to believe that Corvo would get in before Doom Guy or Dragonborn (Though one's been Mii'd). Oh yeah, Dishonored has no Nintendo representation! All in all, this is very unlikely to impossible.

Want: 0%
I just feel like Dishonored shouldn't be the first Bethesda character. Doom, Skyrim, and Fallout are all extremely popular and even influential games. Dishonored, on the other hand, is more obscure. I don't feel that Dishonored should get prioritized over the other games in Bethesda's library. If some of the more heavy-hitting Bethesda games got represented, then I'd be much more open to this idea.

Noms: Omori x All

 

[Sari]

Meat Boy

Chance: 3%
A very popular indie game from the 2000's that I remember being viewed as one of the definitive indies. It's hard to make an exact judgement on indies but right now I'm not too hopeful in one happening. In regards to direct competition for Meat Boy, there is Isaac from the Binding of Isaac. I'm pretty sure McMillian said that he cut ties with Nicalis following their 2019 controversy, but still went through with BoI: Repentance since it was almost finished. So assuming McMillian is the sole owner of Isaac then there is a chance he'd opt for Isaac over Meat Boy if Nintendo were to ever approach him. Meat Boy also has competition with Quote, another popular Western indie. And of course Meat Boy himself is Western which doesn't make things much easier in addition to being an indie.

Want: 50%
I've played a bit of the first Super Meat Boy. It's really fun and I think it warrants being called one of the quintessential indie games. Looking at just Super Meat Boy by itself, I'd be ok with it getting into Smash someday. However, I definitely wouldn't want it to get in over Cave Story/Quote. Get Quote into Smash and then I'll start thinking about this.

-----

Corvo

Chance: 0%
We got two Bethesda costumes already. And not just any Bethesda costumes: ones from Fallout and Elder Scrolls who are pretty much their main frontrunners. At least with Capcom you have cases like Phoenix who have roughly the same amount of things (if not more) going for them than Monster Hunter or Dante, and thus may still be eligible. However I just don't see why Sakurai or Nintendo would opt for a Dishonored rep over the two other Bethesda series. Unlike with Fallout and Elder Scrolls, Dishonored has no Nintendo presence and isn't as big as those massive series.

Also this is moreso a hunch but I don't think Corvo is a particularly highly requested character especially when compared to Dragonborn. We know for a fact that Dragonborn was highly requested as stated by Sakurai in the Kazuya presentation, so seeing Corvo get into Smash before Dragonborn is something I just can't see happening.

There are also some other unrepped Bethesda series that I think would have priority over Corvo, namely Quake and Doom which are both much more popular and have Nintendo presence. Wolfenstein is also an option but I don't see it having a place in Smash for... obvious reasons.

Want: Abstain
Never played Dishonored so I'll abstain. I'm a fan of stealth games such as Thief though so I might try it once I get a good desktop.

-----

Chance predictions:
Bandana Dee: 16.00%
Kiryu: 13.00%

Nominations:
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x20

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Danganronpa protagonist pre-Meat Boy/Corvo Attano

Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x180
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x180
DJ Octavio x165
Echo (Bowser) x163
Magolor x155
Fulgore x152
Soma Cruz x152
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x145
Boss: Ender Dragon x143
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x125
Off The Hook x120
D.Va x115

150 - 101

[Rerate] Gene x110
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Agumon x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
E.M.M.I. x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Lugia x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Nabbit x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

DJ Octavio swims past Echo (Bowser) and captures third place. Rhythm Heaven rep dances past Mii Costumes Monika and Alex Kidd and Boss: Ender Dragon into eighth place. Off The Hook win their tie against Gene, kicking him off the top fourteen, and also pass D.Va to end the day in 13th place.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about either.

Nominations: Agumon x5

 

[NintenRob]

Nominate Lugia x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Bandana Dee from the Kirby series and Kiryu from the Yakuza series.

Predict Tetra from Zelda and Senator Armstrong from Metal Gear.

Megadoomer

-----

Music for today:

Bandana Dee

Spoiler: Kirby series Music

Kiryu

Spoiler: Yakuza Music

And of course...

 

[DanganZilla5]

The waddling boi

Chance: 16%

Ehhh it's gotten kinda tricky to predict him. On one hand he is a major request and one of the most notable first party characters missing. But on the other hand, there isn't a lot pointing towards him. There are KIrby games on the Switch including Fighters 2 which just released last year but that game didn't get a lot of fanfare and overall I feel like it's not a game that Nintendo would use up a slot on to advertise. It has gotten harder to predict the next first party character since the two obvious ones (ARMS and Xenoblade 2) are already in so there are multiple routes that Nintendo could go in. I still think the final character will likely have a promotional aspect to it since that's the pattern and there are plenty of options for Nintendo to go with. I believe there are rumors of a new KIrby game but at this point the game might have been conceived too late to be considered. Overall, he is a character I wouldn't bet on but I still think he has a decent chance.

Want: 65%

The same deal as usual. I've gotten into Kirby recently and have been having a lot of fun with Planet Robobot, Extra Epic Yarn, and Star Allies. So my mind has definitely been open to another Kirby rep. Bandana Dee is as cute as a button and I think a spear-based moveset sounds cool and some of the fan games have proven he can be unique and fun.

_____________________

A dragon never yields

Chance: 4%

For the first part of this I want to point out something since Kiryu seems to have some misinformation surrounding him. People like to point out the interview where the Yakuza creator said that he doesn't want to include Kiryu in crossover fighting games because he doesn't want KIryu beating up women. I object(!) to this for two reasons. One, Kiryu was in Project X Zone and he was beating up women there. And two, the same person has gone on to say that he would like to see Kiryu in Smash. So that specific interview seems to apply more to other fighting games like Tekken rather than Smash.

But for me the big issue I have with Kiryu is the fact that the Yakuza producer stated that there are no plans for Switch ports. That, combine with the fact that the Wii U game flopped hurts his chances a lot. Of course it's not a requirement to have a game on the Switch but with Sega's vast library of solid candidates including SMT and Puyo Puyo that are actively being marketed by Nintendo, I struggle to see KIryu being chosen. His saving grace is the fact that Yakuza has gained traction in recent years but I don't think that is enough to get him into Smash.

Want: Abstain

I've heard Yakuza is great but I haven't played it so I can't comment.

Predictions:
Tetra - 7%
Armstrong - 1%

Noms: Sam Fisher x20

 

[GoodGrief741]

Late calcs (sorry for that)

This past week's schedule didn't see a great turnout, unfortunately. With low participation come few predictions, and this was no exception. Now I have a minimum amount of predictions that a day needs to hit for someone to win any extra noms, so that nobody can get away with winning by being the only one predicting or one of two people predicting. That rarely needs to go into effect because it's so low, but, yeah, several days this week didn't hit it (it was rough - one of the scores you'll see below comes from just three ratings). I debated with myself whether to lower it or ignore it altogether just for this week, but in the end I figured, hey, it's just 5 noms for 3 people (and one of them would be me, clearly a waste of extra noms). Plus it looks to have been just a rough patch, Meat Boy/Corvo had good turnout so Dee and Kiryu already have the requisite amount of predictions.

This got a bit too inside baseball, but I assumed some of you might be curious (given the brevity of the actual calcs portion of this calcs update) and hey, some transparency never hurt anyone. For the record, in case anyone is new or doesn't know how predictions work: you try to predict what the next character's average chance will be. If you're the closest, you get extra noms; the closer you get, the more you'll net! You can predict even if you abstain, and predictions will be counted even if your ratings aren't.

Pyramid Head
4.50% Chance - 59.29% Want
The winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with a near-exact 4.53%. That means you get 10 extra noms!

Junpei
1.01% Chance - 75.00% Want
Junpei is now the fifth most wanted third party character! Quite fitting for the guy with the number 5 bracelet.

Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku
1.64% Chance - 21.67% Want
The winner of predictions was DaUsername with the lowest prediction, a 1.00%
This concept is now the fourth least wanted concept.

Concept: Danganronpa protagonist
6.50% Chance - 76.33% Want
This is the fifth most wanted concept.

Meat Boy
3.00% Chance - 47.67% Want

Corvo Attano
0.33% Chance - 36.00% Want

Junpei, Meat Boy, Corvo, and Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku all join the Less Likely Than Goku club.

Spoiler: extra noms

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Dan Quixote 10
DaUsername 217
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 10
Inue Houji 74
Laniv 5
Mr. MR 75
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 25
SKX31 55
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 20
Wunderwaft 5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Ah darn I missed the Corvo day…not that I had many optimistic things to say about his chances. I'm very much on the 'Elder Scrolls or bust' train. Dishonored is rad as **** though. In my opinion, it easily has the best stealth mechanics of any video game. I love MGSV, but Dishonored really mastered the genre with it's unique and fluid movement options. Having it repped in Smash, while unlikely, would be pretty sweet. But yeah, onto the characters we’re actually talking about…

Waddles
Chance: 8%

I'm pretty 50/50 on whether our last character will be 1st or 3rd party and as far as first party characters go...yeah I could see this happening. Bandana Dee has had a pretty consistent following and has honestly become more and more prominent in Kirby games over the years. Low key, Kirby Fighters literally just felt like an excuse to put Dee in a fighting game. Kirby games come out consistently enough to where they could easily give us Bandana Dee at any time and it would make sense. I mean, even if a new Kirby game isn't coming out anytime soon, there are already multiple games on the Switch that he could promote.

In my eyes, it's mostly a matter of standing out in the crowd. There are definitely more popular characters, more relevant characters, more recognizable characters, etc. Bandana Dee is very "middle of the pack" in the grand scheme of things. I could see it, but I have a hard time being confident in it.

Want: 70%
I feel like Dee has a lot in common with Toad, and as someone who really wants to see Toad in Smash, it almost feels unfair to be against Bandana Dee. I like the Kirby series, and while I'm not itching to see it get another fighter, Dee would be a welcome addition. You could easily make a good moveset just by using the spear, but if you throw in the parasol and maybe the beam you could really make something special. I'd feel bad for the guy though...Dee already gets a lot of hate and if he was somehow the final DLC character of Smash Ultimate? Hoo boy...

Yakuza from Yakuza
Chance: 1%

Ha! If only...

As cool as Kiryu is, I don't see him being on Nintendo's radar. The subject matter of Yakuza, a game about the YAKUZA might cross the line when it comes to what would be seriously considered for a game like Smash. I know that we've gotten plenty of characters from M-Rated series in Smash, but going from a military spy, to a teenage vigilante, to a member of the Japanese mafia seems like a bit of a jump. The games are pretty wacky and Kiryu is far from an evil character, but it's still kind of hard to picture. It's the same reason I doubt something like GTA. As popular as GTA is, it feels like it probably crosses the line in terms of what Nintendo would want to promote. And while Yakuza isn't nearly as vile as GTA, it also isn't nearly as popular. The series is still pretty niche in both the East and the West. It has it's dedicated fans and has seen some steady growth, but it's still much more niche than most third parties in Smash. If we're getting another SEGA character, which is totally possible, I would definitely expect something from Sonic, Puyo Puyo, SMT, Phantasy Star, or even Virtua Fighter before we get Kiryu.

Also, and this might not be important, but there are a lot of aesthetic similarities between Kiryu and Kazuya. Even their fighting styles are kinda similar. There's a reason why a ton of people were hoping to see Kiryu in Tekken 7...

Want: 100%

Hell yeah brother! Yakuza is awesome! The games are so ****ing funny and are some of the most fun I've had in the past few years. I'm about half way through the series and I've been loving just about every moment of it. And honestly, while I doubt Kiryu would ever be seriously considered due to the whole "Yakuza" thing, I genuinely feel that he would fit in Smash pretty well, with how silly and upbeat the games can often be. The tone of the games are quite similar to something like Metal Gear, except they're actually a bit more wacky. It's really fun to see "realistic" characters like Snake in Smash, and picturing a trailer with Kiryu interacting with the likes of Mario, Pikachu, Kirby, Donkey Kong, etc. sounds hilarious!

Kiryu also seems like a great candidate for a "stance" mechanic. The brawler, rush, and beast styles from Yakuza 0 would work really well for something like that.

Armstrong: 1.5%
Tetra: 6%

Noms: E.M.M.I. xMax

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Bananas, waffles and *********

Chance 15% Bandana Dee has several things going for him at the minute, for starters, he's a fan favourite character from his series, he's always going to be relevant to future installments as he's more timeless than say, Elma or Lyn and he fits the MO of a Nintendo DLC character with Star Allies and the rumoured Kirby release. Those aren't bad at all, though there is a major issue, Sakurai himself. The man seems to dislike modern Kirby as seen with how surprisingly little content the modern Kirby games get compared to the Sakurai era, most notable are the music, stages and ATs.

Want 30% Bandana Dee used to be one of my most wanted and now I don't really care anymore, the reason for this is quite simple, I realized how dull BDee's moveset would actually be as with the exception of Spearcopter, a fantastic idea for a move, we's get into the issue with the Belmonts and Min Min, too many moves are similar to one another meaning the moveset itself would be very unsatisfying unless they decide to go overboard on the specials or sound design and ****. Another issue is that I've realized I'd significantly prefer other Kirby characters, especially after Star Allies which made the extra mode Helper to Hero with a **** ton of Dream Friends which ended up being way more interesting with the original idea of just Bandana Dee, the little guy's cute and all but he's know Galacta Knight, Daroach, Susie, Dark Meta Knight, you get the idea. That being said, as lackluster as he is, I do feel he at least fits in due to his status in the series and I'd at least enjoy the content he brings.

Hank Hill if he was an ex criminal

Chance 10% First of all, an interview asking about Kiryu in Tekken has zero bearing on Smash, especially as Nagoshi, the guy who answered that interview, said he'd love Kiryu and Majima in Smash but would be surprised if Sakurai wanted them, people need to learn to actually read interviews instead of seeing an out of context statement and conclude what it's about, that's like if I said kids hated any and every fruit that wasn't an orange because a focus test concluded oranges were the most popular fruit among children. Now, as for the actual chances rating, Yakuza has gone from niche franchise to one of the faces of Sega these days and as a result, the series has delved into a hell of a lot more ground with Sega being all too eager to promote the series with big actors and crossovers. This also fits quite a bit with characters such as Joker, which all in all seem to have the stars align. My big gripe is that while Kiryu makes perfect sense, I feel that he's lower on the priority list due to all the other characters available, especially Arle Nadja

Want: 100% I fell in love with Kiryu since I tried Yakuza 3 on my secondhand ps3 a few years ago with this absolute badass with over the top brutal moves and all the wacky adventures he gets into but also the genuinely kind soul of the guy as he's willing to do so much for random strangers he meets while running an orphanage and wanting to help everyone with their struggles. The Yakuza series is something I wholeheartedly recommend to anyone and everyone so please try it out if you can, I believe all 8 mainline games are available on every modern system except for Nintendo so it shouldn't be too hard for most

Soma x20

 

[NintenRob]

Bandana Dee
Want 100%
I won't bother with chance, I believe there's no point anymore. That said, I can still want. And for Bandana Dee, that want is high. I love the Kirby franchise and I always love seeing this little guy. The spear moveset is awesome.

Nominate Lugia xMac

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

The Dame da ne guy
Chance: 1%
Yakuza is becoming one of SEGA's biggest IPs and Kiryu is a rising star. Nintendo however, has had zero influence on that growth in popularity. The only connection the series has to Nintendo is some obscure JP-only Wii U port of the first two games and it flopped hard to my knowledge. It doesn't seem like the series will come to the Switch anytime soon and if it will it likely won't fall inbetween vol 2's planning phase. They could pull a Joker for him in theory but the Yakuza series hasn't really had a smash hit game that P5 was and thus Nintendo would likely go for a safer option like a Puyo Puyo or a SMT rep.
He also shares some notable aesthetic similaries to Kazuya which while it shouldn't be a factor at all logically speaking, does give me a gut feeling that doesn't bode well for Kiryu.

Want: Abstaining


Chance: 10%
Dee's kind of in a weird spot right now. By all accounts he's still possible. His demand has remained strong. Kirby is overdue for another rep and HAL still hasn't had enough of him. But it's going to really depend at this point. That's just the reality with one more fighter being left. Since Bandana Dee doesn't seem to be going anywhere for now, he could be viewed as a prime "next game" newcomer and be passed up for Ultimate in favor of another now-or-never suprise third-party pick. If you buy the theory that this pass will end of with another low-key promotional pick then the wind might blow in BWD's direction. An announcement of a new mainline Kirby game does seem imminent and if it will be revealed at the next Direct alongside CP11, then Bandana Dee could be in a good position to coincide with it (assuming he's in the new game, which is likely the case). Still it could be argued that this new game would come too late and if there's still no trace of it at the next Direct, it's assumable Dee's chances are toast regardless of wether the fighter is also revealed there. I don't really buy Sakurai being a factor though. You're telling me he's willing to rework every stage to be compatible with Steve's block mechanic but would draw the line at representing Kirby games he's not that familliar with?

Want: 100%
Yeah. I want him. He's cute. He's wholesome. Modern Kirby needs more content. Would satisfy me greatly. He's best boy. Would love to see the naysayers faces. Would complete the Kirby cast. He deserves it Would love all the fanart. If he doesn't happen it wouldn't be the end of the world but the roster would feel like a puzzle with one missing piece.

Armstrong: 0.80%
Tetra: 1.41%
RH rep x35

 

[fogbadge]

everybody sing the apple juice song

chances: 0% it's just not happening. sakurai has made his feelings towards modern kirby pretty clear: not as important as his kirby. sure you can use the argument that he debuted in kirby's fun pack, one of the three kirby games sakurai focuses on, but it is modern kirby that made him the character we all love. sure its possible that nintendo suggested a character from star allies but nothing says that sakurai has to do so. sakurai like to focus on his version of kirby and i just dont see him expanding beyond his trio of main characters or giving us any stage from outside those three games. sakurai may have left kirby before brawl came out but hes not showing any signs of giving kirby thats not his much of a spotlight.

want: 100% over the series ive really grown to love him. hes adorable and between his spear and parasol would have a really neat moveset. not to mention now that he is pretty much kirby's sidekick is just feels like he should be on the roster so we have all the major characters from one of nintendo's biggest series. not that that matters to smash, see toad, impa, tom nook etc. in short i love the character and i think he be a lot of fun to play as.

abstain on yakuza as i know nothing and arent interested in learning.

noms go to spirit events continue after pass

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Kazuma Kiryu

Chance: 0.5% - It's heavily agreed upon that SEGA has a strong chance to take the final spot. And Kiryu's quickly become one of SEGA's rising stars, and would easily be an international crowd pleaser! So why the super low score? First, the interview. I know it doesn't outright deconfirm, but it doesn't help him one bit, and the lack of plans for Switch ports doesn't either. Second, his games are literally about the Japanese mafia, so including him in a more kid-friendly game might be considered a no-no. Though this is only a halfway point, as they recently announced Kiryu for Super Monkey Ball: Banana Mania, a SUPER kid-friendly game (difficulty notwithstanding). Third, there's inter-company competition, from the always popular Sonic, to the shill-happy Atlus, to other Sega staples like Arle or Aiai. Kiryu would still have a lot to get through. There's also the matter of his rise to prominence having no connection to Nintendo, and the one game that did appear on Nintendo systems being a Japan-only flopped Wii U port. I know Persona has almost no Nintendo content, but at least Atlus as a whole does with Shin Megami Tensei. Whereas if they went to SEGA proper for another character, they would more than likely propose somebody else. Finally, there's the fact that his Smash hype came too late. We've seen it countless times, a character who's in a strong spot gets costumed, deconfirmed, or simply not included because they were simply late to the party, especially in third parties. Last Mii costume wave is a testament to that. Even Dragonborn, who got started in late 2016 (long before the second pass was decided on, let alone known to exist) missed the boat. Kiryu's hype started much later than that. Now, if Kiryu's fan demand and prominence stay where they are or even grow by next game he'll easily be one of SEGA's frontrunners for base game Smash 6. But at this point in time there's just WAY too much stacked against him for him to nab the last slot.

Want: 50% - Kiryu's an interesting one for me. I've never played any of the Yakuza games (though they look fun) and I have several other SEGA characters I'd rather see nab the spot. But at the same time, if he WAS chosen I certainly wouldn't complain! I really appreciate how his games incorporate humor and crazier, over-the-top elements to break up the tension a bit and create a more unique atmosphere than you would see in its' contemporaries. Furthermore, not only would he play uniquely, but he'd be an excellent crowd pleaser character that appeals to both east and west! I do hope he gets some successful Nintendo ports someday, that's probably my one real hit against him. But we'll have to see how this plays out. Overall, not my first SEGA choice, but definitely a very fun and welcome addition!


Bandana Waddle Dee

Chance: 15% - Bandana Dee is in a very interesting spot. The final slot could very well go first party, but whether or not we get a fan favorite or a shill/promotional pick is anybody's guess. Kirby's long overdue for another rep and is huge in Japan, with Bandana Dee being a very popular choice on Japanese polls. Furthermore, HAL themselves have been heavily promoting him, giving him steadily-increasing prominence in Kirby games ever since his (formal) debut in Returns to Dreamland, with his most recent outing (Kirby Fighters 2) putting him right on the playable roster alongside the series staples. It's really difficult to believe that he isn't in Smash yet! Furthermore, I mentioned with Kiryu that his hype came way too late. Bandana Dee has the opposite situation, his smash demand having been around for years! I've mentioned that looking towards the Smash Ballot era and earlier for the final character, and while this isn't as much of a problem for a first party character (no 5-year negotiation periods like Steve had), it really is a point on Bandana Dee's favor! The only real issues holding him back at this point are final slot syndrome and Sakurai's continued bias towards his own Kirby games.

Want: 100% - Definitely one of my most wanted! I've adored Returns to Dreamland ever since I've first played it and Modern Kirby (and non-Sakurai Kirby in general) really needs more representation! Bandana Dee is the perfect way to do this, especially since he's a part of the main cast now. He'd also be a super fun take on a spear user, small in stature and able to perform some bizarre and flashy techniques with it to create a very fun fighting style! Furthermore, one could throw in the Parasol and other Waddle Dee-related moves to spice up his moveset and round it out! (though avoiding the issue that characters like Min Min or most swordfighters suffer). Plus modern Kirby has tons of great music, along with excellent locales to pull from for his stage! You can't go wrong with this little guy!


Nominations:
DJ Octavio xAll

Predictions:
Senator Armstrong - 1.13% - Konami's a darkhorse for getting another rep, but with the shaky reputation Metal Gear has with them I don't expect much confidence in another rep anytime soon.
Tetra - 1.02% - Zelda characters always seem to be at a disadvantage, and despite Wind Waker getting a rerelease during the Wii U days I don't expect people to be confident in Tetra's status on Nintendo's radar.

 

[BowserKing]

Bandana Dee

Chance: 30%. With one slot left, Bandanna Dee’s chance is still there, since spirit show do not discomfirm fighter’s. Also given how popular and easy to design he is, he hasn’t some chance to make it.
Want: 100%. Bandanna Dee would totally be fun to play as, and he is my most wanted Kirby character. Overall, BAndanna Dee is worth being playable in Smash.

Kazuma Kiryu
Chance: 10%. With one slot left, Kazuma might have a chance to show up. But it is more likely that Dr.Eggman would be the new Sega Rep.
Want: 50%. Kazuma would be fun to play as however. But overall, Kazuma has the potential to be a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Tetra (10%) and Armstrong (10%)
Noms: 5 for Lugia.
Note: full version later

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Meat Boy/Corvo Attano pre-Bandana Dee/Kiryu

Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x185
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x180
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x180
Soma Cruz x167
DJ Octavio x165
Echo (Bowser) x163
Magolor x155
Fulgore x152
Boss: Ender Dragon x143
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x125
Off The Hook x125
D.Va x115

150 - 101

[Rerate] Gene x110
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
E.M.M.I. x105

100 - 51

Legends Trainer x90
[Rerate] Agumon x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Lugia x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Omori x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Nabbit x20
Sam Fisher x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Rhythm Heaven rep passes Soma Cruz, Fulgore, Magolor, Echo (Bowser) and DJ Octavio and ties with Destroy All Humans content in second place. Soma also passes everyone mentioned above and reaches fourth place.

E.M.M.I. crawls past 100 noms.

Omori escapes the under 25 club.

Today's new challenger is Sam Fisher, starting out with 20 noms.

 

[fogbadge]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Meat Boy/Corvo Attano pre-Bandana Dee/Kiryu

Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x185
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x180
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x180
Soma Cruz x167
DJ Octavio x165
Echo (Bowser) x163
Magolor x155
Fulgore x152
Boss: Ender Dragon x143
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x125
Off The Hook x125
D.Va x115

150 - 101

[Rerate] Gene x110
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105
E.M.M.I. x105

100 - 51

Legends Trainer x90
[Rerate] Agumon x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Lugia x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Omori x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Nabbit x20
Sam Fisher x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Rhythm Heaven rep passes Soma Cruz, Fulgore, Magolor, Echo (Bowser) and DJ Octavio and ties with Destroy All Humans content in second place. Soma also passes everyone mentioned above and reaches fourth place.

E.M.M.I. crawls past 100 noms.

Omori escapes the under 25 club.

Today's new challenger is Sam Fisher, starting out with 20 noms.

dont think ive seen one of my ideas at the top before. how many more days have i to keep it up for?

 

[GoodGrief741]

The best boy

Chance: 15%
Bandana Dee might not be in the ideal situation but he's in a good enough situation to potentially surprise us. Of course there's his massive popularity. He also has Star Allies and the unannounced but basically guaranteed next 3D game for him. And generally speaking he's an evergreen character with a guaranteed future and a mascot status. Star Allies fits in with the MO of recent Nintendo additions, as a 2018 Switch game with no content on base game. The next game is a big question mark, we don't know when it'll be announced (I thought E3 for sure) and when it'll release, but given what we know of Star Allies' development it's likely that Dee will play a major role. It could always pull a New Horizons and be announced in the September Direct alongside Dee for Smash.

Of course the major point against him is Sakurai himself. Seems like the dude either doesn't understand or doesn't appreciate that people like aspects of Kirby that he didn't create. Of all the characters that you could call fan favorites, Dee is easily the one with the least prominent role in Ultimate, but at the same time they gotta be aware of his demand, right?

Want: 100%

Kiryu-chan

Chance:
I'm kinda putting all the interview stuff to the side because it's hard to come up with a definitive conclusion. Personally I think there's enough to consider Kiryu unlikely without it. First there's Sega's embarrassment of riches when it comes to Smash candidates. Shin Megami Tensei has a new Switch game, Monkey Ball has a new Switch game, Phantasy Star has a new Switch expansion. Then you have the Sonic franchise, Arle who is a big want in Japan, Streets of Rage that was also on Switch. Contrast that with Yakuza, a franchise that very deliberately avoids Nintendo systems (for pretty moronic reasons I might add) and it's hard to imagine Nintendo picking this series.

There's also the fact that, while Yakuza is very much active, it's also kinda moving past Kiryu. The latest game, Like A Dragon, stars Ichiban Kasuga. The next one, Lost Judgment (a spin-off that inherited the beat-em-up gameplay as Yakuza moves to JRPGs), stars Takayuki Yagami. Kiryu is still pretty iconic, and is picked as the series rep (see Monkey Ball). But I feel like Yakuza is in a transitional period towards a less Kiryu-centric future, and Smash is no stranger to representing a series' future over its present (Kazuya, and potentially Min Min) so I think Kiryu isn't even the guaranteed Yakuza rep at this point.

One argument against him I want to comment on is the fact that it's about the Yakuza and how that might be a no-no. I don't really see why. Yakuza is very parodic and over-the-top, with Kiryu specifically not even being a Yakuza for the majority of the series. As mentioned before Kiryu shows up in Monkey Ball, and while that is a Sega project it still shows that there is no risk in associating Yakuza with family-friendly games. It's worth pointing out that Yakuza is a generic term, much like calling a franchise "criminal" or "gangster", not a specific association.

Want: 90%

Noms: EMMI
Tetra prediction: 6.44%
Armstrong prediction: 2.19%

dont think ive seen one of my ideas at the top before. how many more days have i to keep it up for?

Counting today, five days.

 

[Sari]

Abstaining on Dee

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Kiryu

Chance: 5%
The Yakuza series has quickly become one of Sega's biggest IPs that they have been trying to push a lot recently. If just Sega were asked right at this moment which character they would put in Smash, I feel like Kiryu would be one of their first choices.

The main issue for Kiryu is the tons of Sega competition, most of which have had more preparation in the last several years than Kiryu. Arle Nadja is another character whose series has been getting pushed a lot by Sega and has one advantage over Kiryu in that they have a much greater Nintendo presence. Nahobino (or just any other SMT rep) benefits greatly from the upcoming SMT:V which is a Switch exclusive. And another Sonic character such as Eggman really needs no explanation on what they have going for them. It also doesn't help that the only Yakuza presence on Nintendo systems are is a Japanese-exclusive Wii U port of the first two games which flopped hard. This is all why I feel like Kiryu would be a name thrown out there for Smash by Sega, not by Nintendo themselves.

At this point, Kiryu is reminding me of Dante in regards to Smash speculation. I think he'll be a serious contender for the next game (assuming he doesn't get dethroned by the other up-and-coming Yakuza protags by then), but right now I feel like his Smash hype train has started too late and will probably get a mii costume at best.

Want: Abstain
I have not gotten into the Yakuza series yet so I won't give a want rating.

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Chance predictions:
Tetra: 6.00%
Armstrong: 1.00%

Nominations:
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Mii Costume: Scorpion x5

 

[Baba]

I think Kiryu's chances plummeted after Kazuya,
Maybe this isn't entirely fair to think this way, but Kiryu looks so visually similar to Kazuya that I think it'd be weird to get the two of them back to back.
Kazuya even has an alt that has Kiryu's color scheme.

 

[Laniv]

The Apple Juice Warrior

Chance: 22%

On paper, Bandana Dee has plenty going for him. He's a very popular character from a very popular series, has a fair amount of content he could bring with him, and could be the first character that primarily uses a polearm.

However, there is one very steep hurdle that lays in front of him: For whatever reason, Sakurai doesn't like is violently allergic averse to modern Kirby content. Like maybe 5% of the Kirby content in the Smash Bros series is based on the Kirby games up to Air Ride. Considering what we've seen so far, it doesn't look good for him.


Want: 100%

But how can I, personally, say no to that face? Look at him, he's adorable! He's basically the Kirby equivalent of Captain Toad, so let's have him!



Bakamitai plays in the distance

Chance: 12%

Things are looking a bit rougher for Kiryu. As a Yakuza character, he's the number-one choice, but as a SEGA character, he has plenty of competition, whether it be from another Sonic character, Nahobino, Arle Nadja, someone from Phantasy Star, or even someone like Beat or Ulala. At this rate, he'd be very lucky to get a Mii costume.


Abstain on Want


Predictions for Tetra: 17% Chance, 63% Want
Predictions for Armstrong: 4% Chance, 35% Want

Nominate Magolor x 10

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I think Kiryu's chances plummeted after Kazuya,
Maybe this isn't entirely fair to think this way, but Kiryu looks so visually similar to Kazuya that I think it'd be weird to get the two of them back to back.
Kazuya even has an alt that has Kiryu's color scheme.

I'd say that's actually a very valid point! One has to look at it from a marketing perspective. Two characters that have very similar designs and art styles, and very similar names (Kazuya/Kazuma) back to back. I know this wouldn't be a problem in Japan (their names would be written in Kanji) and they could just call him "Kiryu" overseas like most material does, but having the two back to back could get confusing for some.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Tetra from Zelda and Senator Armstrong from Metal Gear.

Predict Ori and Gunvolt.

Megadoomer

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Music for today:

Tetra

Spoiler: Wind Waker Music

Senator Armstrong

Spoiler: Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance Music

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Random Grace Hour Go

Bandana Dee
Chance: 10%
Popular ballot character that could have timing on its side. He’s surely not the only popular ballot character left though, and then there’s the Sakurai bias that may or may not exist or form a hard roadblock for him.

Want: 50%
With the powercreep of set design going on, Bandana Dee’s spear moveset was a marvel back in Smash4, but would be the latest in the line of distance demons in Ultimate DLC in a series where eldritch horrors disrupt space and time for funsies.

Abstain on Kiryu

Noms go to Off the Hook

Dawn of a New Day

Tetra
Chance: 5%
Quite old, doesn’t have the sheer fan demand behind her like several other Zelda one-shots and doesn’t represent a new game whereas her Assist Trophy‘d competition would almost all do. That’s not to mention Zelda already got a revamp in Ultimate so the need for a newcomer has diminished compared to a scenario where we’d be stuck with Twilight Princess incarnations for the third time.

Want: 50%
Like BDee, she’s a fun and charming character that has the unfortunate scenario of hailing from a series with larger than life worldbusters.

Abstain on Armstrong

Noms go to Off The Hook

Ori: 3.45%
Gunvolt: 2.89%

 

[chocolatejr9]

Extra hour to abstain on Bandana Dee and Kiryu.

Nominations: Agumon x5