Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DanganZilla5]

I am the Senate

Chance: 0%

Oh cool, we are rating Metal Gear Rising. Well for starters Raiden is the main charac.....oh wait we are rating Armstrong who is the main villain of a spinoff.....whose main character isn't playable yet. Look I get that with this pass we've had three instances of a character who we were expecting to represent the game not get in. But keep in mind that MIn Min, PyraMythra, and Kazuya got in through very specific circumstances. Min Min because the director wanted her, Pythra got in because of technical issues preventing Rex from joining them, and Kazuya has the Devil mechanic which made him more interesting than Heihachi. When comparing Armstrong to Raiden, none of these situations apply to them. There is nothing about Raiden that would make him too much for the Switch hardware and both of them have different abilities so it's not like the Mishima situation where both characters play similarly except that one has a clear additional mechanic they could add. As for popularity, people do like Armstrong but Raiden is the person on the fan polls and has been a much bigger part of Metal Gear for far longer. Overall, I don't see an avenue where Armstrong gets in before Raiden. It would be like putting Mr. L in before Luigi, it just doesn't make sense.

Want: 20%

Metal Gear Rising is a ******* awesome game and I wouldn't say no to a rep just to get that fantastic, blood-pumping music into Smash. But as much as I enjoyed Armstrong as a villain, it would feel really weird for him to be in Smash and not Raiden.

_____________________

Tetra

Chance: 5%

I think she has a decent chance, all things considered. She is Zelda, one of the Triforce users so she is automatically likelier than a lot of characters in the series (Which is sad), and makes an appearance in Hyrule Warriors which helps with her relevancy. I'm just not gonna go too high because in general I'm not too confident in a Zelda character. Out of the characters in the BOTW universe which is the most likely area of the Zelda mythos to be picked, there aren't a ton of options. We already have BOTW Link pretty much, BOTW Zelda doesn't look to be playable which hurts her chances, and Calamity Ganon is a darkhorse pick, but a darkhorse for a reason. There is also the Champions which I could see Nintendo choosing just one, I don't see why not.

Anyway, that got kind of sidetracked. The point is there isn't much pointing towards Tetra since there seems to be no sign of a Wind Waker HD port and in terms of fan demand, I think Skull KId and a couple others overshadow her in that department. Really, it's just hard for her to stand out and it's hard for me to imagine a Zelda character as the last at this point.

Want: 50%

I know I trashed on Zelda before but that was specifically the BOTW version. While technically the same person I think Tetra would be more unique and it helps that I enjoyed playing as her in Hyrule Warriors. That game really opened my mind up to what different Zelda characters can bring to the table and Tetra is no exception. Her magic bullets are really cool and I dig the Wind Waker art style. But on the flip side I would still prefer someone who isn't part of the main triforce trio like Skull KId, Ghirahim, and Midna. Zelda just has so many cool side characters and villains, which makes the fighter representation in Smash more frustrating as there is a lot of potential to really show off what the series can offer in terms of personalities and moveset potential.

Predictions
Ori - 4%
Gunvolt - 3%

Noms: Sam Fisher x20

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Dee

12% Chance

I have been very vocal about Dee in the past and how I feel the community has overrated him pretty consistently for both Sm4sh and this game in terms of chance at least. To me, the direction DLC has gone is one that directly benefits characters that can push something new ish, like Pythra, Min Min, or Byleth, or towards third parties. Given the fact that out of all the dlc we have gotten the only one that doesnt fit this mold is Plant, who admittedly is a bit of a grey area due to being kind of a pre order bonus, I think it is safe to say that first parties, while not off the table, are not exactly likely unless they push something new.

Kirby...does not have something that new to push. Granted, XC2 and Arms were not that new when they were pushed in FP2, but both series were much bigger switch releases in terms of news and hype around them than Star Allies ever was. Now, it is obvious we are due for a new Kirby game. The unannounced 3D Kirby game is on the horizon, and I would not be too surprised if we got Return to Dreamland 5 off of the Star Allies engine too. But we don't have access to that info, we have to go off what we have now.

Bandana Dee's main push for him getting in is simply fan demand. While I would say he probably has a better chance than Waluigi, but that does not mean he is a lock by any means. While you could argue fan demand has played a role in DLC, to me the only obvious candidates for having fan demand be one of the core reasons they got in are Banjo, Pythra (Rex and XC2 were uber popular in Japan), Hero, and maybe Steve. Right now, while Nintendo has had a solid streak of knowing what fans would like (they are 9/10 in terms of the fans loving the dlc choices), outright fan demand does not seem to be the biggest thing right now.

25% Want

Look, I have said over and over again I have disliked the Return to Dreamland formula. Every modern kirby game blends and not in a fun way. Part of why I am excited for the 3D kirby game even if it is bad is because it would give us something new. We have gone a decade with getting extremely similar kirby games back to back to back and I am tired of it. I also do not like the fact that people insist that Dee is a "Nintendo All Star" so getting into smash is his birthright. I know that is a generalization, but god I hate the Nintendo All Star argument and how it makes a character "deserving". That argument died at the earliest at E3 2006 with Snake, should have been accepted to be dead in November of 2015 with Cloud, and its grave was danced on at TGAs 2018 with Joker stealing the show. I just hate this kind of gatekeeping that people do, pushing a character and saying others just outright do not deserve it as much. Now, I am bringing this up now because Dee's fans, from my experience, have done this a lot. They do it if you support a different Kirby character, they do it towards third parties, and it annoys me.

It also does not help that I find Dee boring. I understand he would be unique, but at the same time I do not see something where you can make a moveset pop. Plant is a great example of this. In theory, you could put anyone in smash so long as the hardware was not a constraint. You could make a creative moveset that has tons of references and nods with ease. But at the same time, I find Plant boring. I find that it does not pop and is kind of milquetoast. I could say the same for Byleth and their execution. To me, I want a character either I have a strong personal connection to or one I would find fun. Dee is neither.

So why am I not just giving him a 0? Well, I know friends that would be very happy if he was last. I know it would make plenty of people I know happy. So begrudgingly, I would accept Dee as last.

Kiryu

1% Chance

Yakuza bombed on the Wii U and the series has not come back to Nintendo in a long time. The modern Yakuza games are releasing everywhere but the Switch. Now, I know that you could say that someone like Joker proves that this is possible, but that does not mean Yakuza is likely. Persona at least has released games on NIntendo systems (albeit spinoffs for now but ports seem to be looming with the anniversary announcements) and it was a spinoff of SMT, which has a ton of Nintendo connections in its history. Kiryu does not have that. Tekken is evidence that a Nintendo connection is not as needed as you might think, but Tekken is far bigger. Yakuza, while a solidly large series, is no Tekken. So Kiryu is not in a great spot.

Then you have the fact Sega, while having a solid shot for getting the last character, has cutthroat competition. Arle Nadja, Eggman, and Nahobino are very obvious choices you could go with. If you go for a more legacy choice, Axel from Streets of Rage or Alis from Phantasy Star make a lot of sense. The Sega competition goes deeper than that even, I just listed characters that imo are more likely than Kiryu.

Overall, not likely imo.

5% Want

I ripped the Nintendo all star crowd with dee, now I will rip another part of speculation that might irk me a lot more in the future. This desire to constantly act like we could totally see another Joker at any moment honestly feels a little irksome. Dante was the most egregious example, but we have had plenty of these other choices. Cool choices with a questionable Nintendo connection that would be a big surprise that fans might like. We saw it when 2B got a lot of hype, we saw it Dante obviously, we saw it with Doomguy, and we saw it with Kiryu now.

Now, in practice, most of the time this does not irk me too much is because most of the time this does not feel condescending if that makes sense. IDK if people say they think 2B is cool, so long as it does not feel that when you say it might not happen that people might get defensive. But if you didn't notice, part of why I nominated Kiryu is that people were hesitant to say that he was not potentially deconfirmed based on developer comments. Originally, I was gonna do a simple 1%, 0%, say that I was not a fan, and move on.

But then I watched some Yakuza gameplay, and a friend of mine got into Yakuza. So I do not want to outright say that Yakuza would be something I would hate getting into smash. But right now, no. I have zero connection to this series, and I do not want to see it in smash rn. Maybe when I get to playing the series I might shift my opinion. But rn? No dice.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Dante was the most egregious example

I don't think it's fair to put Dante in considering hias massive fandemand was actually answered

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Wait you nominated a whole character because you wanted people to know that you think a character, you have no connection to, is actually deconfirmed? I respect that level of raw pettiness so much.

 

[fogbadge]

dead men tell no tales! they just screech loudly to paralyze you

chances: 0% i cant see it. i can believe nintendo would suggest a new zelda character but i dont think sakurai would go for it. regardless of any percived bias sakurai may have against zelda i still dont see it happening. if nintendo suggested any zelda character well then its anyones guess who wed end up with. specifically a wind waker character, possibly but i wouldnt put it past him to pick tingle or toon ganondorf instead. a phantom hourglass character, well i cant see nintenod suggesting that. a HW character, hed probably go for one of the 5 OCs. specifically suggesting tetra herself, well if not sure nintendo are that specific with their suggestions and with sakurais selective imagination its anyones guess if he thinks shed be "fun." also theres that whole toon shiek thing from brawl but as theres no proof that that was tetra so im not discounting it. besides it didnt help dixie.

want: 90% i keep my love for the zelda series no secret. i love nearly all the characters and tetra is no exception. she be so much fun to play as no matter what moveset she has be it made up, HW based or zelda clone. funny thing is the perfect stage for her is already in the game.

abstain on the other guy. ive never played metal gear and the more i learn just puts me further off.

noms go to spirit events continue after pass.

Dee

12% Chance

I have been very vocal about Dee in the past and how I feel the community has overrated him pretty consistently for both Sm4sh and this game in terms of chance at least. To me, the direction DLC has gone is one that directly benefits characters that can push something new ish, like Pythra, Min Min, or Byleth, or towards third parties. Given the fact that out of all the dlc we have gotten the only one that doesnt fit this mold is Plant, who admittedly is a bit of a grey area due to being kind of a pre order bonus, I think it is safe to say that first parties, while not off the table, are not exactly likely unless they push something new.

Kirby...does not have something that new to push. Granted, XC2 and Arms were not that new when they were pushed in FP2, but both series were much bigger switch releases in terms of news and hype around them than Star Allies ever was. Now, it is obvious we are due for a new Kirby game. The unannounced 3D Kirby game is on the horizon, and I would not be too surprised if we got Return to Dreamland 5 off of the Star Allies engine too. But we don't have access to that info, we have to go off what we have now.

Bandana Dee's main push for him getting in is simply fan demand. While I would say he probably has a better chance than Waluigi, but that does not mean he is a lock by any means. While you could argue fan demand has played a role in DLC, to me the only obvious candidates for having fan demand be one of the core reasons they got in are Banjo, Pythra (Rex and XC2 were uber popular in Japan), Hero, and maybe Steve. Right now, while Nintendo has had a solid streak of knowing what fans would like (they are 9/10 in terms of the fans loving the dlc choices), outright fan demand does not seem to be the biggest thing right now.

25% Want

Look, I have said over and over again I have disliked the Return to Dreamland formula. Every modern kirby game blends and not in a fun way. Part of why I am excited for the 3D kirby game even if it is bad is because it would give us something new. We have gone a decade with getting extremely similar kirby games back to back to back and I am tired of it. I also do not like the fact that people insist that Dee is a "Nintendo All Star" so getting into smash is his birthright. I know that is a generalization, but god I hate the Nintendo All Star argument and how it makes a character "deserving". That argument died at the earliest at E3 2006 with Snake, should have been accepted to be dead in November of 2015 with Cloud, and its grave was danced on at TGAs 2018 with Joker stealing the show. I just hate this kind of gatekeeping that people do, pushing a character and saying others just outright do not deserve it as much. Now, I am bringing this up now because Dee's fans, from my experience, have done this a lot. They do it if you support a different Kirby character, they do it towards third parties, and it annoys me.

It also does not help that I find Dee boring. I understand he would be unique, but at the same time I do not see something where you can make a moveset pop. Plant is a great example of this. In theory, you could put anyone in smash so long as the hardware was not a constraint. You could make a creative moveset that has tons of references and nods with ease. But at the same time, I find Plant boring. I find that it does not pop and is kind of milquetoast. I could say the same for Byleth and their execution. To me, I want a character either I have a strong personal connection to or one I would find fun. Dee is neither.

So why am I not just giving him a 0? Well, I know friends that would be very happy if he was last. I know it would make plenty of people I know happy. So begrudgingly, I would accept Dee as last.

and to think i gave him 0 while i like him

 

[Iko MattOrr]

I noticed the BWD discussion but I decided on purpose to not put my 0% want into the thread because I'm sick of getting all the hate for it, but the truth is, I still dislike that character and he's still the only character I actively don't want in Smash, for several reasons that go beyond Smash.

 

[BowserKing]

Tetra
Chance: 10%. Given that the Legend of Zelda games got a diversity of games representation, Tera joining the battle would be a decent choice. Of course there are many other characters that could help represent the games as well.
Want: 75%. She would be fun to play as, and I can see her and Toon Link reunite in battle on Tetra’s ship stage. Overall, Tetra would make a good Smash Bros rep.

Senator Armstrong
Chance: 5%. It seems that Konami has not gotten a rep in any fighter’s pass, so the chance of Senator Armstrong getting in is low. Of course lots of stuff is surprisingly possible.
Want: 50%. He could be fun to play as, and we can get more Metal Gear soundtracks. Overall, Senator Armstrong would make a decent Smash Bros rep.
Prediction: Ori (5%) and Gunvolt (5%)
Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Tetra

Chance: 2% - Zelda's already at a disadvantage when it comes to characters, it hasn't gotten a new rep since Brawl. Furthermore, while Zelda as a whole is being heavily promoted nowadays, its' Breath of the Wild that's the talk of the town, and the cold side of cool. Wind Waker, while a very popular entry in the series (we got Toon Link for a reason), hasn't exactly been relevant in terms of marketing or fan demand. Her demand is modest but not particularly attention-grabbing, and her last outing, Wind Waker HD, was back during the Wii U days, and Nintendo doesn't seem to have plans to port it to the Switch as part of the anniversary celebration. The one boon she has is that she's Wind Waker's Princess Zelda, and being a Triforce Trio member automatically boosts you to priority range. Still, in this DLC climate I just can't think of any reason why Nintendo would go for specifically Wind Waker, especially when Breath of the Wild has upcoming content.

Want: 30% - I wouldn't mind too much, she definitely has stuff she'd bring to the table. But as I've said in a lot of Zelda ratings, we're long overdue for a non-Triforce Zelda rep. There's so many great choices and unrepresented games that I feel like Tetra would be kind of redundant? She's very cool and I'm always up for more pirates, but I've never played Wind Waker myself (though I plan to at one point) so I don't have the same attachment to her as I do for, say, Mipha or Revali. Pretty basic, I would want to see a non-Triforce character first.


Senator Armstrong

Chance: 1% - Konami's a dark horse for a DLC slot since they haven't gotten one yet! And....that's about all I can think of for his benefits. Armstrong's a villain in a Metal Gear spinoff who's protagonist (Raiden) isn't even in the game yet. Yes, we've gotten plenty of non-protagonists chosen before protagonists in this pass, but those had very specific circumstances. I just cannot think of a situation where this could happen for Senator Armstrong. Furthermore, isn't Konami's relationship with the Metal Gear series super iffy ever since Kojima left? They even had to change Snake's series icon. The chance of another Metal Gear rep is already low, and I just don't see it happening for a villain or side character, let alone a main one.

Want: 10% - I don't have anything against him, I just am not exactly begging for another Metal Gear rep at the moment (I want to see Sonic get a second one). Furthermore, I watched my friend play Rising, and while it looked kinda cool, I have to say I was extremely bored (I like the main series stealth-based Metal Gears more, so I'd rather see someone like a Big Boss echo for Snake), so the actual likely second pick, Raiden, just doesn't interest me. I didn't get the chance to see how Senator Armstrong fights, though, so I can't judge him based on that. Along with that I'm sure he's a super enjoyable villain, I just don't have any experience with him. He's just such a stretch of a character that I have a hard time getting excited for someone like him, though if he did get in for whatever reason I wouldn't complain much. I just don't think now's the time for him.


Nominations:
DJ Octavio x10
Captain Charlie x10

Predictions:
Ori - 1.92%
Gunvolt - 1.54%

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Why are you white?

Chance: 1% Honestly it feels like Tetra's only jere because she technically applies to the silly second chances theory because of the infamous Toon Zelda data in Brawl. Other than that, she's one of the more popular versions of Zelda in the series but looking at Nintendo's MO for first party DLC, Tetra has no reason to believe she was even considered.

Want: 60% Docked points because oh boy Zelda 3 but at the same time, Tetra herself is pretty cool and she looked hella cool in Hyrule Warriors, what with the gun sword combo and although I never got around to buying it and most likely never will as 60 bucks is too steep a price for modern games that are a few years old, it does sound like you can make something fun with her, Tetra was easily a highlight in Wind Waker's early game,with the fun little wink and abundance of personality, it's also a nice way to make up for Tetra becoming a ****ing damsel needing of constant protection by the time she's rebealed to be the game's version of Zelda, never liked that part.

Don't mess with this senator

Chance: 0% Yeah nah, we're not getting a wacky quirky "haha it's not the main character but someone else" shtick this late in game, Armstrong only has a single appearance, a memorable one for sure, but only a single appearance of a decade old game isn't exactly good for side characters, especially when more popular characters exist in the game, including the main character. It's not happening.

Want: 40% I really think that Raiden should be in which lowers my want a tad, but Rising's music is one of the biggest absentees that it still makes the lowered score pretty good, I don't think Armstrong would be very exciting to play either and he's primarily popular for the fun fight and all the goddamn memes but honestly, Stranger I Remain, I'm My Own Master Now, It Has To Be This Way, Rules of Nature, The Only Thing I Know For Real and Collective Conciousness are so ****ing godlike that I'd pop off because they're genuinely amazing

Soma x20 I have no clue who to put noms towards after getting Soma to the top so give me a suggestion for a cool character and I'll dump the noms into them once Soma's locked in

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Tetris
Chance: 0.1%
Woah dudes remember the forbidden 7? I do and all it tells us is that Tetra might have been considered at some point in the past. I say might cuz Tetra is never specifically mentioned within Brawl's data. "Toon Sheik" is but we don't know if that was just a codename or if they were legit planning to invent an OC version of OoT Sheik. In any case, Dixie Kong still isn't in and I don't see anyone still asking for Plusle/Minum so I think Sakurai dropped this concept long ago regardless of if 2nd chance theory will hold up or not. Nintendo has very little reason to pick her either. Tetra isn't really relevant or popular at the moment and so shares the same problem with the other sea of one-off Zelda characters. She isn't even at the top or the runner up the of the most popular of such characters, at least Skull kid and Midna have her beat. Also, Wind Waker already being represented with Toon Link and Pirate Ship is likely more than enough already.

Want: Abstaining

His final smash is a 24 hour long filibuster
Chance: 0%
Armstrong may be an unforgettable character who's been memed to hell and I frequently see on best videogame Final bosses lists... but yeah, they're not putting him on the roster before Raiden and we only have one fighter left so there's definitely no chance here. This wouldn't be some special occasion like of not adding someone else over who was deemed the main character like with Min Min or Pythra or Kazuya. This would be like if they added Gruntilda before Banjo-Kazooie, it wouldn't make sense.

Want: Abstaining

Gunvolt: 2.17%
Ori: 4.27%
Noms to RH rep

 

[JCKirbs]

A little late to the party, but I still wanted to state my thoughts towards at least one of these characters.

Bandana Dee

Chance: 5%
I feel that this should honestly be 0%, given what I'm about to say, but I guess the flame never truly dies.
Regardless, I've been seeing a very sensible pattern throughout FP2 which I feel had greatly impacted the chances of many 1st/2nd Party characters at this point. At first I thought that with Min Min squashing the "Spirit Rule" at the beginning of the pass would mean that any previously Spirited characters would be fair game, but that doesn't seem to be the case. In fact, even Byleth hinted at something which I hadn't realized until recently.

All 1st/2nd party FP characters are specifically from the Switch era, and for a good reason I would imagine, considering that nature (and potential nature) of the franchises of which they respectfully come from. Games like Pokemon, Fire Emblem, and Xenoblade always have rotating casts between games as far as I'm concerned, and since entries in franchises like those are pumped out more than Smash entries, there are bound to be some potential fighters who just seemingly won't ever make the cut due to the simple aspect of timing. Sure, there are characters like Chrom who were just now put into Smash long after Fire Emblem: Awakening released, but that was simply to appeal to the masses who wanted him as a fighter (so they just made him into a Echo Fighter). When talking about DLC fighters, even stretching back as far as Corrin, all 1st/2nd Party characters were put in at a time when it was basically their only reasonable chance of getting in.

Theoretically, characters like Bandana Dee could get into Smash at any point in time as long as the demand is there, so making them into a DLC fighter would perhaps have taken away from other characters who don't have the same liberties. Also, characters like Corrin, Byleth, and Pythra were the main stars of their own respective games which had little to no content in Smash until they were actually put into the series, so it just makes sense from a representative perspective as well.

At this point, the only real chance Bandana Dee would have is with being a Bonus Fighter or being apart of something much smaller than a full-blown Fighter Pack. But considering how FP11 is going to feature the last character in Ultimate, as told by Sakurai himself, there's a slim chance of more bonus fighters happening in the first place. Even then though, you never know what's going to happen until everything is literally said and done.

Want: 100%
No doubt about it, he's going to remain as my #1 most wanted character until he finally gets into Smash, so I'm willing to wait until it actually happens.
At this point though, I just wish that he would join already so I could enjoy his inclusion in peace. Because admittedly, I'm pretty tired of all the discourse which usually surrounds what I would still consider to be a pretty harmless addition to Smash. People are still entitled to their opinions, granted, but I've still found many instances in which I feel that people are underselling not only his characters, but also his potential as a fighter. He wouldn't have to just use his spear (even if it's a weapon which hasn't been explored that much in Smash so far), some of his moves could be made flashier with inspiration from the Staff ability, and overall he could be a quick, snappy and effective character on the battlefield.

But beyond that I just really like the character and, if he can't get into Smash right now, then I hope that he'll be given more opportunities to grow within the Kirby series until the next Smash game.

Abstain on Kiryu.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Honestly it feels like Tetra's only jere because she technically applies to the silly second chances theory because of the infamous Toon Zelda data in Brawl.

Nah I nominated her because I think she's cool. Second Chance theory is a load of bull

 

[Golden Icarus]

Abstain on Armstrong.

Tetra
Chance: 1%

I just can’t bring myself to give her anything higher than that. I do believe that we could get a Zelda character at any moment as there are always new Zelda games coming and it’s just such an immensely popular series with tons of popular characters. Tetra specifically is fairly beloved, recognizable, has plenty of moveset potential and has had a pretty memorable role in the series.

..but you could say that about so many Zelda characters and frankly, Tetra isn’t even one of the big stand outs. She isn’t quite as popular as Skull Kid or Midna, she isn’t as recurring as Impa or Tingle and she doesn’t have the relevancy of say, the Champions. She’s a great character from a series with a ****load of great characters.

Want: 95%

Probably my favorite option for a Zelda newcomer, aside from maybe Impa. I don’t know precisely what it is, but I just really like her. She is such a charming character in Wind Waker and in my opinion is one of the most lovable characters in the series. Gameplay wise, her moveset in Hyrule Warriors with the scimitar and pistol is just awesome and would lend itself to such a stylish playstyle in Smash. Maybe even get a bit more creative and throw in a catapult, cannon, crossbow or other pirate themed attacks. I just feel like she would be really fun. Plus, I love Wind Waker and it’s artstyle, so getting another “Toon” character would be sweet.

Noms:
All on E.M.M.I.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Bandana Dee/Kiryu pre-Tetra/Senator Armstrong

Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x220
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x195
DJ Octavio x195
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x180
Soma Cruz x177
Magolor x165
Echo (Bowser) x163
Fulgore x152
E.M.M.I. x145
Boss: Ender Dragon x143
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x125
Off The Hook x125

150 - 101

D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

[Rerate] Agumon x95
Legends Trainer x90
Lugia x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Sam Fisher x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Omori x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Nabbit x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Mii Costume: Scorpion x5
Firebrand x1

Rhythm Heaven rep dances past Destroy All Humans content and Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass to take first place. DJ Octavio passes Soma Cruz and DAH content and ties with Spirit Events continue in second place. Magolor floats past Echo (Bowser) and conquers sixth place. E.M.M.I. joins the top fourteen, crawling all the way up to ninth place and costing D.Va her spot.

Sam Fisher breaks out of the under 25 club.

Today's new nominee is Mii Costume: Scorpion, with 5 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about either.

Nominations: Agumon x5

 

[Mr. Stevenson]

Tetra - 10%

While it’s true that we haven’t had a Zelda newcomer since Brawl, as shocking as that is, and while I’d say that it’s very possible that the last character might actually be one, I definitely wouldn’t bet on Tetra if that were the case. Her best time to have been a newcomer in the series was in Brawl given that she was still pretty relevant at the time. Unfortunately she didn’t make the cut, and now with the characters from the newer entries, such as the champions, as direct competitors, and the fact that she doesn’t even have a strong fan demand to back her up, I really don’t think she’s gonna make it, sadly. At least I guess Hyrule Warriors gave her a role in its story mode, maybe that helps a little idk.

Want - 97%
Probably my favorite female Nintendo character, and without a doubt my most wanted Zelda character. I love her design and her sassy yet secretly caring personality. I get people’s issue that she’d be “just another Zelda”, but I strongly disagree. She almost completely distinguishes herself from Zelda to the point where I sometimes forget she’s actually her. In fact I was partly disappointed when I found out about that twist in Wind Waker, as I wanted Tetra to be her own character. I think she’s also one of the biggest Nintendo all stars not in the roster yet too. As for her moveset, I guess it wouldn’t be something too mindblowing but it’d be a chance for a better Wind Waker representation. Like she could use Toon Link’s abilities and items, like the Deku Leaf for her up B or the Skull Hammer as maybe her side B, for example (And yeah, I know she never used them in the game but so? Ness never had PK fire and Lucas never had the rope snake in both their respective games, so I don’t think that’s a stretchy idea, besides she does use those in HW even if the game isn’t canon) She’d also have her gun which would be cool too, and well, I guess we’d also have another Wind Waker stage which I’d definitely love to see as well.

Abstain on the Armstrong guy. Never played MGR.

 

[fogbadge]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Bandana Dee/Kiryu pre-Tetra/Senator Armstrong

Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x220
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x195
DJ Octavio x195
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x180
Soma Cruz x177
Magolor x165
Echo (Bowser) x163
Fulgore x152
E.M.M.I. x145
Boss: Ender Dragon x143
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x125
Off The Hook x125

150 - 101

D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

[Rerate] Agumon x95
Legends Trainer x90
Lugia x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Sam Fisher x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Omori x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Nabbit x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Mii Costume: Scorpion x5
Firebrand x1

Rhythm Heaven rep dances past Destroy All Humans content and Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass to take first place. DJ Octavio passes Soma Cruz and DAH content and ties with Spirit Events continue in second place. Magolor floats past Echo (Bowser) and conquers sixth place. E.M.M.I. joins the top fourteen, crawling all the way up to ninth place and costing D.Va her spot.

Sam Fisher breaks out of the under 25 club.

Today's new nominee is Mii Costume: Scorpion, with 5 noms.

curses

 

[GoodGrief741]

taps mic
"nanomachines"
crowd bursts into laughter

Chance: 0%
Armstrong is a popular and memorable character. But... he's also the villain of a spin-off. A spin-off starring a character who's also super popular and who hails from the mainline games. In a franchise that isn't exactly the most likely to get another character. From a company with tons of competition. That's also infamously trying to get out of the gaming market. Sorry Armstrong, but your nanomachines are bigger than your chances.

Want: 0%
I mean, he's cool but... why? He's best known for the memes and his great boss music, but as Metal Gear characters go he's like nothing. We could get Big Boss or Venom Snake as echoes, Raiden would also be cool. Even if we leave the playable character front I'd much rather get Ocelot or Liquid or Solidus or Volgin or Psycho Mantis or Fortune or Gray Fox. It's not exactly lacking in cool characters with fun abilities.

Zelda but badass

Chance: 1%
Yeah it's not looking great for her. Wind Waker isn't relevant. We didn't get that rumored Phantom Hourglass port (dunno who believed that tho). And generally speaking I don't know how great her odds are of showing up again. Unlike, say, Skull Kid or Midna, who could always theoretically return if the franchise wants to go back to the settings and elements that pertain to them, I don't know how likely we are to return to the Great Sea setting given how different it is from the formula. And we haven't gotten a Toon-style game since Tri Force Heroes, the Link's Awakening remake came up with a new artstyle which makes me question the future of the Toon artstyle. Since Tetra can only really return if they need an alter-ego for Toon Zelda (otherwise they'll use Sheik) that's not good for future appearances. At least she has a big presence in spin-offs like Hyrule Warriors.

Beyond that there's a relative lack of popularity compared to other Zelda reps. Though I think that's offset by being another Zelda (we know Sakurai likey) and potential ease of development as she can reuse proportions from TL.

Want: 100%
I understand that she might not be as exciting to some as she is another Zelda. But on the other hand consider that she's a total badass pirate who dual wields flintlock pistols.

Tetra is one of my favorite incarnations of the princess and I also just like pirates in general. If we have to get only triforce members until the end of time this is the best option imo. Plus she'd be a much better Wind Waker rep than "Link, but he doesn't actually use anything from Wind Waker". Not my preferred next Zelda rep but also not that far off.

Noms: I recently realized that we never rated one of my most wanted characters ever. He has no chance but I'd like to give him his day all the same.
Sukapon x20

Gunvolt prediction: 6.75%
Ori prediction: 0.79%

 

[Sari]

Tetra

Chance: 1%
There's a chance she may have been considered for Brawl. Keywords: "chance" and "may have." We know that in the files for Brawl are codenames for Toon Zelda and Toon Sheik, but for all we know the Toon Sheik could've been for an actual cel-shaded Sheik instead of Tetra. Of course there isn't an actual toon Sheik but there wasn't a Twilight Princess designed Sheik either but we still got that.

Either way, I doubt Sakurai cares about repping Wind Waker some more considering the game is repped well enough and is old news by this point. If we're getting a new Zelda character then it's probably going to be from the BotW sequel. But considering the history of how well repped the Zelda series is with characters... I don't see that happening much either.

Want: 100%
Wind Waker is my favorite Zelda game to date, and it conveniently has one of my favorite versions of Zelda herself. Tetra is a refreshing take on the standard Zelda formula that most of the games to this day don't really have (save for a few exceptions like Spirit Tracks). If Hyrule Warriors is anything to go by then she'd also be fun to play since she could bring in pistols. Also I would really like to play as a true pirate character in Smash (K. Rool and Ridley are close I guess but I don't really count them).

-----

Senator Armstrong

Chance: 0%
The main thing going for him is that he's a character who has been memed to death. Other than that, he has pretty much everything stacked against him. Metal Gear competition is big, with characters like Big Boss and Raiden (the actual main character of Armstrong's game) almost guaranteed to have higher priority. Revengeance is also sort of old news by this point so I don't think Konami or Sakurai would be rushing to rep it especially with MGS:V existing. And of course there is a lot of general Konami competition such as a Contra rep, Bomberman, or another Castlevania rep.

Want: 5%
I have yet to get into the MG series, however I know enough about Armstrong to give a want rating. This would be amusing for a short while but other than that it just feels like any other Metal Gear pick should get in before him. Again I'm not too involved with the MG series but I feel like I would prefer Big Boss or Raiden. Oh and of course the main thing hindering my want is the tons of Konami competition. I feel like I'd prefer a Contra rep or another Castlevania character before Armstrong, and there's no way I'd want him in over Bomberman.

-----

Chance predictions:
Gunvolt: 6.00%
Ori: 8.00%

Nominations:
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Mii Costume: Scorpion x5

 

[Laniv]

Or "Dazel", as she is known in Italy

Chance: 7%

Not a super great outlook on her. An issue with the Zelda series is that people generally want another Zelda character, but no one can quite agree on who it should be. The issue that specifically applies to Tetra is that compared to the likes of Skull Kid, Midna, Impa, and Pig Ganon (and Ghirahim? do people still want that guy?), Tetra really doesn't have a lot of demand for her. There is the leftover data in Brawl, but that could just as easily be for an actual Toon Sheik. Honestly, the only way I can see her getting in is if Sakurai really wants to add a proper pirate character* to Smash.

*Ridley is a space pirate. There's a difference.


The Nanomachines Guy???

Chance: 0%

Long answer: A villain from a third-party spinoff game is... not very likely. If (very big if) we get another Metal Gear character, it'd probably be Raiden, or Big Boss, or one of the other Snakes. And that's if we get a Konami character at all.

Short answer: lol no.

Abstain on Want for both

Predictions for Gunvolt: 6% Chance, 28% Want
Predictions for Ori: 7.4% Chance, 36% Want

Nominate DJ Octavio x 5

 

[ProfPeanut]

There's a poetic dissonance between Tetra and the Triforce that Nintendo really forwent

Chance: 4%
If the last character turns out to be a Zelda character, it'll likeliest be a Breath of the Wild 2 newcomer doing a Corrin and showing up ahead of time. Second in line is any of the four Champions from the first Breath of the Wild, or someone from Age of Calamity. Only below that is a familiar group of secondary one-off Zelda characters - Midna, Vaati, Skull Kid, Ghirahim - that have been unable to gain any sort of advantage over anyone else in their group for the past two decades that Smash speculation has been around. Despite being a certain princess's alter-ego, Tetra's been stuck in Group 3 since forever; she's the best candidate for a second Wind Waker rep, but that's the best she can really argue for.

Mind you, I don't think a Zelda newcomer is impossible, even now. It's just that Wind Waker is such an odd choice at this point, being the relatively-quirky entry in a line of Zelda games now retired by BotW. Tetra herself has historically been a niche pick, never more popular than whichever Zelda character is flavor-of-the-season, and it's hard to imagine Nintendo suddenly wanting her in the spotlight now, long after Wind Waker HD's release on the Wii U.

Want: 40%
Fun fact, my support for Tetra in Smash and desire to make a feasible Tetra set is the main reason I got into Smashboard's local moveset making scene a whole decade ago. While I can't say I feel as strongly for her to get in now (especially on the eve of the very last Smash newcomer), it would be nice to see my past self validated in such a way.

---

Abstaining on Senator Armstrong

 

[fogbadge]

There's a poetic dissonance between Tetra and the Triforce that Nintendo really forwent

could i ask what you mean by that? though this probably isnt the place, maybe do it in the tetra thread

 

[Lyncario]

could i ask what you mean by that? though this probably isnt the place, maybe do it in the tetra thread

Tetra means 4, while Tri means 3.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Gunvolt from the Gunvolt series and Ori from the Ori series.

Predict Ratchet & Clank and Boss: Rayquaza.

Megadoomer

-----

Music for today:

Gunvolt

Spoiler: Gunvolt Music

Ori

Spoiler: Ori Music

 

[DaUsername]

Chance: 0.01%
I know this entire DLC cycle has just been a series of off the wall choices, but I think Armstrong might just be too out there. If we were to get any Metal Gear character, we'd probably get the more obvious choice of Raiden, even if the last few years have been really bad for obvious choices.
Want: 80%
Why wouldn't you want him? He's just so awesome. Also, we'd get MGR music, which is also awesome.

Abstain Tetra.
Gunvolt prediction: 5%
Ori prediction: 4%
Noms: Kraid x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Ori and the Microsoft Madlads

Chance: 2%

The Ori series is a critically acclaimed one and a stand-out among indies. It has received a lot of love from both Microsoft and Nintendo and it's one of the few Xbox/PC exclusives that arrived on the Switch. It has certainly made a name out of itself and is certainly in the high pantheon of the indie space. Unfortunately though that is not enough, considering that there are three major obstacles in Ori's way. One, it being an indie is a major blow as many other successful indies only got Mii costumes at the most. Second, the no double dipping situation, while a fan rule, has held up. And third, Master Chief. Even when you put Ori in the top tier list of most likely Microsoft characters above ones like Battletoads, Conker, and Killer Instinct, Master Chief is still a huge deal and is the Microsoft character on the front page of Famitsu afterall. Now if we already had a few indies playable then I would be more optimistic, but for now it's not looking good for him.

Want: Abstain

I have yet to try out the Ori games.

Several people here: Gasps

I know, I know, I should try them out sometime but for now they just aren't a high priority for me.

______________________________

Firing guns with high voltage

Chance: 15%

There is quite a bit to unpack here. First, Inti Creates is a Japanese game developer and publisher that has been around since the late 90s. Not only do they have Gunvolt which is one of their signature franchises, they have also developed and published the Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon games and the recent Blaster Master games.

Moving onto Gunvolt, it is a series inspired by Mega Man (Made by ex-Capcom workers) and it has quite the impressive resume. The original game debuted on the 3DS and got ported to different systems and all of its sequels got releases on either the 3DS or Switch and to this day the series has gotten consistent releases of good quality. Heck, Gunvolt got popular enough to get an anime!

Now whether or not they would actually pick Gunvolt depends on some factors. Due to its similarity to Mega Man you could argue that they would rather pick another Mega Man character but honestly with Dr. Willy being an assist trophy (Not that I think assist trophies are a death knell but I just can't see him being the one character upgraded) and with X, Zero and Proto Man having DLC costumes, I doubt we'll see a Mega Man character next. So that removes that obstacle in my opinion. Next is competition. Inti Creates' has the aforementioned three I.Ps (Bloodstained, Gunvolt, and Blaster Master), all of which kind of target the same demographic with them being retro-inspired games. So I can't see Nintendo clearly going for one over the other. And yes I do think it comes down to those three, there is no way that a game like Gal Gun is getting into Smash.

Overall, Gunvolt has a decent chance. It's niche, but not too niche and it's the type of game that I can see surprising us.

Want: Abstain

Haven't played this either.

Predictions:
Ratchet and Clank - 5%
Boss: Rayquaza - 0.80%

Noms: Sam Fisher x20

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Ori

Chance: 35%

Ori is a Microsoft IP, which we have two already in Smash (Banjo and Minecraft). Both of their (yes, I’m referring to Ori as they/them) games are on Switch as well. Only thing that hurts them is they’re rather niche especially compared to Master Chief or other Microsoft darlings.

Want: 80%
Would be amazing. Restoring the Light, Facing the Dark is a song I need in Smash ASAP

Gunvolt:

Chance: 20%. Being an indie character kinda hurts his chances, especially when he has competition like the Knight from Hollow Knight and Reimu Hakurei. I’m not sure if I should call Steve indie… at the very least, the Gunvolt IP was born on Nintendo and is mostly Nintendo exclusive (the first game was ported to Steam iirc, maybe the Luminous Avenger iX spin-off too)

Want: 90%. A Final Smash in the style of GV’s skill use screens? Those absolute bangers? GIVE IT TO ME NOW!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Yeah no puns here

Chance: 1% Another MS character doesn't sound impossible to me so I can certainly see Nintendo asking for the same company for multiple characters in the same pass, but Ori has a big question. Why them? Because the two games are critically acclaimed? Well, tough luck as so are all the other options in the world, why go for Ori and not Fulgore? Or the Battletoads? Or some green shooty guy who's name escapes me idk.

Want: 0% Unpopular opinion but I didn't enjoy my time with Ori when I played it like a year ago, it's like Hollow Knight where I should like it on paper but I just didn't vibe with it, especially skill tree and create your own save point feature, former felt useless and the latter felt very odd, I also found the game to be merely ok before I dropped it so I'd rather have something I like and unlike Hollow Knight, I didn't feel it was a shame that I didn't like it, Ori just felt meh to me and I don't respect Ori as much as a result. As nice as the movement felt, I'd still prefer a number of MS reps over Ori

Swordflame's cooler cousin

Chance: 1% Gunvolt's issues are very similar to Ori's as why would you pick him over countless more popular characters? Hell, when it comes to Inti Creates, there's also other characters who may be more popular and a ****ton of popular characters they don't actually own but have worked with. Also, maybe it's the circles I'm in but I've only ever heard of Gunvolt a handful of times since a crossover with Mighty No. 9 came out so it seems like it's less longlasting than say, Miriam, Hollow Knight, the Blasphemous dude, Jason, etc.

Want: Abstain, never got around to buying the games, are all games on Switch and/or PC?

Soma x20

 

[fogbadge]

Why wouldn't you want him?

that pic you posted for one thing

anyway onto the rating

insert name of electric super hero here

chances: 5% i just dont see our last character being an indie. i could be wrong but i think itd be someone more popular. not to say gunvolt isnt popular with three games and a spin off it must being doing something right. but i think the best you can hope for is a mii costume. that's all ive got to say really.

want: 70% it would be kina fun. i got the gunvolt 2-pack on switch and quite enjoyed the first one. didnt play the second one but from what i read abandoning most of the characters from the first game, having us play as the racist who spent the entire first game trying to murder us and gunvolt now apparently dating the weird butterfly girl who came from a 9 year old's mind it was very off putting. also gunvolt is already a moody edgelord what was the point in giving him an edgelord rival? any that aside i enjoyed the first game enough and i woundt mind having the electro gunner in smash. there are several indie characters id like more but i would still welcome him.

abstain on ori ori oxen free and put my noms to spirit events continue after pass

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ori and the Temple of Doom
Chance: 1%
I'm not convident in a MS double-dip myself. If it would happen there's likely stiff competition for it. Then again, Ori does have both their games on the Switch so it could be that Ori was on their minds when planning this pass, given that Blind Forest released on Switch around that time. Could be a bit on the late side for that though.

Want: 2%
I do want to play the first game at least someday. For now I have no attachment and see them as huge Hollow Knight competition.

Abstaining on Gunvolt

Boss: Rayquaza: 0.5%
Ratchet&Clank: 0.8%
RH rep x5

 

[BowserKing]

Ori
Chance: 1%
Want: 50%
Gunvolt
Chance: 5%
Want: 50%
Prediction: Boss: Rayquaza (5%) and Ratchet and Clank (5%)
Noms: 5 for Lugia

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain today since I don't have much to say for either character. Ori does have a small boost due to being Microsoft we have yet to see an indie playable so I don't think it'll be chosen. Especially with bigger indies with more fan demand getting passed over, alongside WAY bigger Microsoft characters. As for Gunvolt, the last game was in 2017, there isn't much fans demand, Nintendo hasn't really done anything to promote it, and being a small Japanese third party doesn't automatically make you the last character. It really feels like such a random choice.


Nominations:
DJ Octavio xAll

Predictions:
Boss: Rayquaza - 3.14% - Not really expecting Sakurai to add more bosses to the game (and the boss-themed update in Sephiroth would've been a good opportunity), and only Brawl's OC bosses came back as bosses, so not much confidence here.
Ratchet and Clank - 0.36% - Owned by Sony, which is still considered a huge barrier, so expecting little to no confidence despite them getting a recent game.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Nominate Lugia x5

 

[MasterCheef]

Ori Chance: 0% until we actually get an indie rep i cannot see any indie character getting on the roster

Want: 0% honestly Ori would likely be too light and not able to hold their own in a FFA / 2v2

Noms = Ahri X 10

 

[GoodGrief741]

OK so I kinda forgot yesterday was Saturday so I'll try to do calcs tonight

Spoiler: Nominations post-Tetra/Senator Armstrong pre-Ori/Gunvolt

Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x245
DJ Octavio x210
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x205
Concept: Destroy All Humans content x180
Soma Cruz x177
Echo (Bowser) x168
Magolor x165
E.M.M.I. x155
Fulgore x152
Boss: Ender Dragon x143
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x125
Off The Hook x125

150 - 101

D.Va x115
[Rerate] Gene x110
[Rerate] Eggman x107
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

[Rerate] Agumon x100
Legends Trainer x90
Lugia x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
[Rerate] Sora x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Sam Fisher x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Omori x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Spyro x20
Nabbit x20
Sukapon x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
Mii Costume: Scorpion x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Kraid x5
Firebrand x1

DJ Octavio passes Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass and makes second place his turf. Echo (Bowser) steals sixth place from Magolor. E.M.M.I. crawls past Fulgore into eighth place.

Sam Fisher sneaks past 50 noms.

Today's new nominees are Sukapon, with 20 noms, and Kraid with 5.

I have no clue who to put noms towards after getting Soma to the top so give me a suggestion for a cool character and I'll dump the noms into them once Soma's locked in

Why not Shanoa? We've never rated her and I think she's one of your most wanted.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about either.

Nominations: Agumon x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Why not Shanoa? We've never rated her and I think she's one of your most wanted.

I didn't see her in the support thread directory and I have too little motivation to make one, so she's not elligible iirc

 

[Sari]

Abstaining

Rayquaza boss prediction: 0.75%
Ratchet & Clank: 2.78%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Scorpion x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ori and the Low Chance Rating

Chance: 0%
I'd like to remind everyone of one fact: Ori is a Microsoft IP. Microsoft does not own the Ori developers, Moon Studios, but they own Ori. This isn't even a loophole like Bethesda or one of their many other recent acquisitions where the license could've been acquired before the buyout. Ori was always Microsoft. Microsoft, much to my chagrin, already got its fighter this pass. To have Ori be FP11 would require Nintendo to have negotiated for three Microsoft characters and none of them to be Master Chief. I dunno, that just doesn't seem plausible to me.

Want: 65%
One of the best Microsoft exclusives in recent memory here. Granted that's not a high bar but Ori's deserving of all the praise that it gets. Have you ever felt movement as fluid as that? And it all looks so pretty! Great game you guys, give it a try. At this point in time I think Ori isn't high enough in the totem pole, what with Mr. "Redefined Gaming Forever" still a no-show. And even after the Chief gets in (if he ever gets in) the competition is mighty, with fellow Microsoft icon Marcus Fenix, burgeoning mascots Senua and Raz, oh and also the entire back catalogues of Rare and Bethesda. Yikes, you think they own enough stuff? Still, on her own merits, I think Ori should be added at some point. It's just hard to root for her in context. All this would be moot if we just got a Microsoft Smash clone y'know...

Mighty No. 1

Chance: 5%
The OG retro-style Mega Man send up (not counting Mega Man 9 and 10, which Inti Creates also developed, and before Mighty No. 9, which... they also developed). Gunvolt was praised for its modernized take on retro design and sold pretty well. It was Inti Creates' first self-published game and would cement them as creators of retro-style revivals. Their repertoire would come to include the Blaster Master Zero trilogy and the Bloodstained: Curse of the Moon subseries. And also, uh, Gal Gun, according to Wikipedia.

Anyway, back to Gunvolt. There's three Azure Striker Gunvolt games and they're all on Nintendo systems. The third one is slated for an exclusive Switch release in 2022. Generally speaking Inti Creates' games get promoted on Nintendo Directs so there is a degree of common ground between the two companies.

However, I question whether Gunvolt is a very urgent need in a game in which Mega Man is playable. The Gunvolt games are unique to themselves no doubt but they do have similar audiences and I imagine that if they wanted to appeal to that they could just, like, make Zero a fighter. In terms of the other franchises I mentioned I think Bloodstained is a bigger IP and Blaster Master has the advantage of being an actual retro IP rather than an homage to another one, and that alone makes me doubt Gunvolt's prospects. At least Gal Gun's not getting in

Want: 75%
I like these games, surprising no one.

Noms: Sukapon
Boss Rayquaza prediction: how do you account for all zeroes except for one 5%? I guess something like 0.38%
Ratchet prediction: 2.16%
Also please no spoilers for Rift Apart, haven't played it yet

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Abstain

Noms to Off The Hook

Rayquaza Boss: 0.22%
Ratchet: 6.12%