Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

Could you imagine Sakurai in a presentation telling the audience "Dragalia Lost is available free to start on mobile devices... unless you live in the EU lmaoooo"?

yes actually

 

[Commander_Alph]

Could you imagine Sakurai in a presentation telling the audience "Dragalia Lost is available free to start on mobile devices... unless you live in the EU lmaoooo"?

I mean he don't really have to? It's not a requirement, I mean it's not like Sakurai have to says "You can buy Tekken 7/Persona 5 now... on the PlayStation console lol".

 

[chocolatejr9]

Euden

Chance: 50%
Look, I said that if we still didn't have Dragalia Lost content in Smash by the time we were speculating Fighter 11, I would go all in on Euden: the least I can do is keep my word. That being said, reading these posts shows just how much of a darkhorse Euden really is. You all SERIOUSLY think not being available in Europe is THAT big of a deal? It'd be a bigger problem if it was Japan-exclusive, but this game isn't: it has a worldwide audience. Plus, friendly reminder: SAKURAI ISN'T PICKING THE DLC. If Nintendo wants to promote Dragalia Lost in Smash, they'll promote Dragalia Lost in Smash.

And before anybody mentions it, we just recently found out Nintendo essentially endorses scalpers when it comes to their older products. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they would be willing to tell Europeans to use a VPN to play the game.

Want: 100%
Can we stop acting like mobile games aren't real games, please? Yes, they've introduced some less than stellar business practices, but many of them are of such high quality that it doesn't really matter. Dragalia Lost is definetly one of those games. The story and lore are surprisingly in depth, the characters are diverse and varied, the gameplay is addicting, and the gacha elements are surprisingly generous for a mobile game: the only times I've ever spent money on this is because I wanted to, and never because I HAD to. Euden himself would be an interesting addition, whether it be doing the Dragonshifting mechanic (think Corrin but good), or even some kind of summoning mechanic to reference his game of origin, as I've seen people suggest. I just want more people to be more open to the idea, okay?

Abstain on the other two. I know nothing about them.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Euden

Chance: 50%
Look, I said that if we still didn't have Dragalia Lost content in Smash by the time we were speculating Fighter 11, I would go all in on Euden: the least I can do is keep my word. That being said, reading these posts shows just how much of a darkhorse Euden really is. You all SERIOUSLY think not being available in Europe is THAT big of a deal? It'd be a bigger problem if it was Japan-exclusive, but this game isn't: it has a worldwide audience. Plus, friendly reminder: SAKURAI ISN'T PICKING THE DLC. If Nintendo wants to promote Dragalia Lost in Smash, they'll promote Dragalia Lost in Smash.

And before anybody mentions it, we just recently found out Nintendo essentially endorses scalpers when it comes to their older products. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they would be willing to tell Europeans to use a VPN to play the game.

Want: 100%
Can we stop acting like mobile games aren't real games, please? Yes, they've introduced some less than stellar business practices, but many of them are of such high quality that it doesn't really matter. Dragalia Lost is definetly one of those games. The story and lore are surprisingly in depth, the characters are diverse and varied, the gameplay is addicting, and the gacha elements are surprisingly generous for a mobile game: the only times I've ever spent money on this is because I wanted to, and never because I HAD to. Euden himself would be an interesting addition, whether it be doing the Dragonshifting mechanic (think Corrin but good), or even some kind of summoning mechanic to reference his game of origin, as I've seen people suggest. I just want more people to be more open to the idea, okay?

Abstain on the other two. I know nothing about them.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

I just wonder what makes Dragalia Lost so special to make it worth promoting instead of like every character on the Switch ever or even Fire Emblem Heroes. The Europe thing is also a damper on the promotional factor, if we’re even going for the most cynical route and say that the final character will have a Nintendo shill factor as its core value.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I just wonder what makes Dragalia Lost so special to make it worth promoting instead of like every character on the Switch ever or even Fire Emblem Heroes. The Europe thing is also a damper on the promotional factor, if we’re even going for the most cynical route and say that the final character will have a Nintendo shill factor as its core value.

Because it's a brand new IP that they're clearly invested in. I'll be honest, I forgot to mention that part...

 

[GoodGrief741]

I mean he don't really have to? It's not a requirement, I mean it's not like Sakurai have to says "You can buy Tekken 7/Persona 5 now... on the PlayStation console lol".

It'd be really strange for a Nintendo character though if he made no mention of how to get their game of origin.

not being available in Europe

it has a worldwide audience

I think your definition of worldwide is a bit wonky there.

 

[chocolatejr9]

It'd be really strange for a Nintendo character though if he made no mention of how to get their game of origin.



I think your definition of worldwide is a bit wonky there.

What I meant is that it's not as limited as, say, Mother 3.

Man, I was looking forward to this day, but I'm already screwing things up...

 

[GoodGrief741]

What I meant is that it's not as limited as, say, Mother 3.

Man, I was looking forward to this day, but I'm already screwing things up...

Mother 3's worldwide availability is setting the bar pretty low...

But hey man clearly you got a lot of love for Euden and DL so why don't you speak about that instead? You made your argument for why it would be chosen already so might as well change gears.

 

[Commander_Alph]

I think your definition of worldwide is a bit wonky there.

Basically their popularity isn't condensed to just 1 country (say Touhou with Japan), Dragalia and Granblue, while isn't on Europe has its "official" fan that play the game officially. Basically the right word is "widespread". That's my interpretation.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Because it's a brand new IP that they're clearly invested in. I'll be honest, I forgot to mention that part...

The fact Nintendo picks the characters is a really good point though, and definitely means Euden doesn’t have to be noticed by the guy that only very much accidentally added characters with Euden’s predicament. Still, I’m still looking for the angle that makes Euden anything more than a dark horse since he’s also far from a bull’s eye from the shill/games people are playing right now angle considering the continental conundrum (although I admit he’s way more than “technically not impossible”)

As a European I gave him a low want score too but considering its a game I pretty much cannot play accessibly I‘d say 20% is pretty good and I know he has some really fun potential in the moveset department so you’ve definitely won me over in some way.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

What I meant is that it's not as limited as, say, Mother 3.

Man, I was looking forward to this day, but I'm already screwing things up...

I think you're taking this too seriously, this thread is inherently a game, nothing major, like, I could be getting my panties in a twist because of people saying 10% is a very low chance, again, this isn't something serious

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Hey guys I-

Not in Europe.

But i crossed over with Persona and Me-

Not in Europe.

BUT IM SUPER POPULAR AND I CAN TURN INTO A DRA-

Not. in. Europe.

Chance: 1%

This is no longer the days of Fire Emblem getting 2 characters despite beign Japan only, and Sakurai forgetting about Mother 3 beign Japan exclusive. Smash is international now, and most of the requests despite appealing to certain regions, tend to be available in every major region of the world, and Dregalia just isn't that. Any example you can give me (Roy, Lucas) is a character that was chosen years ago, things are different now. I don't consider the UK the entirety of Europe.

Also, despite Smash having content from all Nintendo consoles, the Mobile game content is scarce (aside from a FE song) and i think that's intentional. Mobile content is just cash grabs at best, it doesn't have the same importance in the long run like the main Console games, and the fact that Pokémon GO, one of most successful things in 2016 got basically nothing important (not counting the Console Spin-Offs Let's Go games which only have spirits) makes mre really doubt this is even in consideration.

The Demon of the ancient past.

Chance:1%

Remember when someone said Katalina was in Smash, and people coulnd't shut up about her? Thank god those days are over. Now we are talking about the two main characters, but they are as vanilla as they get.

Granblue has some positives about that Dragalia hasn't. One, it's larger as a whole, and has 2 console Spin-Offs, and an anime adaptation. Cygames is behind both franchises and Nintendo owns a percent of the company (5%) but even then, the franchise hasn't touched Nintendo territory that much, and isn't Final Fantasy/Tekken levels of popularity so not beign on Nitnendo systems is a hinderance, because it means less platforms to be in and a smaller audience. There's also the fact that the original Granblue is also not released on Europe, and not even The United States, so it would have to rely on its Spin-Offs internationally..........

Yeah i don't see this franchise happening in Smash, and the characters in question are nothing to write home about. They aren't popular or iconic, and are just avatars in the fullest definition for a game that is just another Gacha in the sea of Gacha.

Now, we go into the Main Course of Today:

Is this the franchise that has the weird Crossdressing Pink-Haired guy?

Chance:1%

Now, there are some positives towards Fate. For one, it doesn't suffer from the same region-exclusive pitfalls the other two fall into. Fate is not just Gacha, so the EU can't do **** regarding all the other games of the franchise. I could argue that Fate is more successful and visible outside of Japan than Reimu has been or ever was, memes notwithstanding, same goes for Sakura Shinguchi. Fate is also popular, not in Smash thankfully, but in general, it's a large media franchise, grossing over 4.50 BILLION, and its above Scooby Doo, Assasin's Creed, LEGEND OF ZELDA, Godzilla, and even Game of Thrones. To say this franchise is niche is kind of-wrong. Granted, those numbers are likely HIGHLY inflated by the Gacha games, but still.

So in paper, this sounds like a franchise that seems big enough for Smash, right?......................No.

You see, as i preluded to earlier, part of the success of Fate doesn't come from the games (which are like 2 Visual Novels, and some Spin-Off Games, some of them on the Switch) but rather the Anime, and that one Gacha games that likely also uses the Animated Adaptations to fuel its Hype. Granted, Adaptation Displacment doesn't mean she can't happen, Pokémon is undeniably influenced by the Anime thanks to Pikachu, Mewtwo and others, Digimon is still a prominent gaming franchise despite beign seen as an Anime first in many parts of the world. But those franchises still have games, they still would have an audience.

There's also another issue that Saber can't escape................................Fate originated as an Eroge. Which if you don't know what that means, it means:

Now, Saber isn't like Scorpion of Mortal Kombat, whose entire character is revolved around the Franchises's Appeal. You can't have Scorpion without brutally killing people, you can't have Senran Kagura's characters without the On-your-face fanservice and weird humilliation events, Saber looks like a character who doesn't need the eroge events in order to be faithfully represented in a Fighting game. Bayo was suggestive and violent, but she still got in Smash. The Belmonts deal with gory monsters from time to time, but they still got in Smash. Saber doens't even need her outfift to be censored like Aegis or excluded because of it like Mai was, but you can't deny the fact that an Eroge franchise in Smash probably will not sit well with Sakurai or Nintendo, and this could be a line they may not want to cross, there HAS to be a limit, even in the gaming realm. Even if the Fate series has abandoned those H Game roots, nothing of her screams Smash Character to me, i really fail to see what makes her a good idea for a Smash character.

If Sakurai were to chose what is at its core a Visual Novel rep, Phoenix Wright is more reasonable. He doesn't have the same unfortunate baggage as Saber's game origins have, is more popular and requested in Smash Circles and is a popular character with Nintendo's core market and a really popular character and franchise (and the anime owns its popularity to the games, not the other way around) sure it is way smaller in profit, but this is the end of the Pass this benefits him as smaller characters are preserved for last, plus Capcom is on board with Smash unlike Type-Moon.

Honestly, Saber is one of those choices that is only brought in a pitiful attempt an predicting an "unexpected character that the Smash Bubble will not like", rather than a character that has merits but its overshadowed by some issue.

Want for All: 0%

What can i say? I don't like Gacha games. I don't like Mobile Gaming in general (Handheld gaming is where its at, or at least where it was at) I only played KOF-All Star and while i had my fun with it (please bring back US Sports Team to KOF XV YOU COWARDS) i saw it for what it was, i dropped it and never payed a signle penny for it. To this day i find the idea of Free to Play games to be gross, and not matter how much of an industry standard it is these days, i refuse to play the rest of them, because i see them for what they are, cash grabs that do everything in its power to extort money from you,. Gacha is bad, no ifs and buts.

As for the Fate series itself, i couldn't care less. I have stated before that i would rather have more cartoony or silly characters over serious ones, and Fate as a franchise rubs me the wrong way in every single manner. It's an Eroge visual novel, and that has games that really have no connection with Nintendo outside of some spin-offs, is popular with circles outside of Smash's referendum, is mostly known for its Anime adapation, all of its characters are as faithful to their historical figures as Zeus was to his Wife, suffers from Waifu Syndrome. Yeah, this is a franchise i have on interest when it comes to Smash Bros Material. I don't even want to see a Spirit Event for this thing.

Yeah, Euden looks more like a Dragon than Corrin who looks like Mutant Deer, but it doesn't convince me. As for an actual dragon in Smash, we already have one with Charizard, "MUH POKÉMON TYPING" be damned. And i heard enough from Granblue back in 2018 to know that i don't want it anywhere close to Smash.

Noms:
Hugh Neutron X5

........wait this isn't Nick All Star Brawl, i mean...........you know what no Noms for me today.

as someone who loves history, I HATE the way historical figures are designed and portrayed in this game. They're watered down to buzzword historical references and anime tropes, and the physical designs aren't much better. Leaders are waifutized left and right I mean how the F*** did they see someone like this and end up with a design like this?!), the designs are extremely lewd, and most of the characters (with the exception of Vlad the Impaler and Julius Caesar) look nothing like their historical counterparts. What's even the point? It bothers me whenever people criticize Nuclear Gandhi then defend this s***.

Nuclear Ghandi? Nah, Clone High Ghandi is where its at!

(R.I.P Clone High Ghandi)

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Nuclear Ghandi? Nah, Clone High Ghandi is where its at!

(R.I.P Clone High Ghandi)

Why not BOTH? XD

 

[Perkilator]

I know one way to fix the EU problem: put Dragalia Lost on Switch, not necessarily exclusive to EU.

It'd probably have to be revised to get rid of the gacha elements, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make since the game can be played just fine without all the gacha stuff.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Why not BOTH? XD

Nuclear Clone High Ghandi?

 

[Ridrool64]

I am going to abstain, sorry.

Next game isn't a reboot x 5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I know one way to fix the EU problem: put Dragalia Lost on Switch, not necessarily exclusive to EU.

It'd probably have to be revised to get rid of the gacha elements, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make since the game can be played just fine without all the gacha stuff.

Getting rid of gacha elements is a sacrifice? That's... not a take I ever expected to hear.

 

[Perkilator]

Getting rid of gacha elements is a sacrifice? That's... not a take I ever expected to hear.

Well, a sacrifice for a game that was made as a gacha, at least.

 

[Inferno7]

0% for all of them. Well, 2% for Euden if we're being generous because:
-he's Nintendo
-anime swordie
-new IP that they can shill
-said IP doesn't have content in the game

thing is;

-he's too niche, like, waayyyy too niche and obscure
-comes from what is essentially a mobile gacha game
-not even localized everywhere
-lol at thinking Nintendo cares about the IP, let alone giving it the final spot for Smash DLC

The others are pretty much self-explanatory, especially Saber
Want? 0%. Maybe 0.1% for Euden because he kinda resembles Meliodas, but that's it really.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Today we're rating a bunch of Nintendo characters, so rate the following characters:

• Ayumi Tachibana from Famicom Detective Club
• Officer Howard from Astral Chain
• Ring Fit Trainee from Ring Fit Adventure

Tomorrow is another Nintendo day, so predict Concept: Zelda Newcomer, King Boo, and Gooigi.

-----

Music for today:


Ayumi Tachibana

Spoiler: Famicom Detective Club Music

Officer Howard

Spoiler: Astral Chain Music

Ring Fit Trainee

Spoiler: Ring Fit Adventure

 

[DanganZilla5]

A club comprising of just a few people that originated on the Famicom

Chance: 25%

Admittedly I'm not as confident in Ayumi as I was just a few months ago. A big advantage she had was the fact that her game was one of the few Nintendo games that weren't deconfirmed in any way like from costumes or a spirit event. But with Nintendo's 2021 lineup having been revealed (And there might be a few more surprises), Ayumi is no longer the only fish in the pond. We have several other first parties that are a decent possibility now (Like Andy or Ashley). I think she is faring well considering that her games got a good amount of promotion and she fits in with Second Chance theory. I'm just concerned that despite decent fan demand she doesn't stand out as much as I thought she once did.

Want: 75%

I haven't finished The Missing Heir yet, I've been busy with other games, but I'm enjoying my time with it so far. I dig the atmosphere, music, and writing. I've wondered for a while now how a detective would work in Smash, but I'm sure Sakurai will be able to come up with something interesting. When it comes to recent first party games, this is one that I wouldn't mind being shilled.

_______________________

A guy, his Legion bro, and a random exercise coach

Chance: 1% for both Akira and Ring Fit Trainer

The only reason why both of these characters gets the obligatory 1% is because simply put, the Tekken situation really messed up my and other people's initial ideologies. Since we didn't get an explanation for why Heihachi's costume came before Kazuya, it's safe to say that costumes don't deconfirm other characters from the same series. With this logic in mind, you could argue that spirit events are not a death knell for any of the I.Ps that got one during this pass, including Astral Chain and Ring Fit Trainer.

I understand where that argument comes from but I do think that spirit events and costumes are not in the same boat. Costumes are advertised differently outside of the fighters pass and are sold separately, whereas you can only get the DLC spirit boards if you've purchased the challenger packs. I think that is a key difference between them and makes me believe that Nintendo wouldn't separate the spirits from the packs as that makes them have less value.

I also want to bring up a concern that me and a couple other people like Sari have. When it comes to having Akira and Legion fight at the same time, that may not be possible. We didn't get Rex specifically because the Switch couldn't handle two detailed characters fighting at the same time in 8 player smash (Which is 16 player smash in this case). IDK maybe there is a way that they could have the combat be faithful to Astral Chain without it being taxing on the system but the way that the officers and legions work together is quite similar to the driver and blade system and if that couldn't be incorporated into Ultimate then I don't think Astral Chain could work. If we were rating Akira's chances for the next game I do think he is one of the safest bets. But for now, I don't think he is happening and neither is Ring Fit Trainer for the reasoning stated in the last paragraph.

Want
Akira - 50%
Ring Fit Trainer - Abstain

I've played a couple levels of Astral Chain when my best friend lent me his copy. I did enjoy the combat and I like the visuals but I just couldn't get into the characters or story at all. I probably do have to give the game more of a chance but basically if Akira Howard did get in my satisfaction would depend on how he is implemented. I don't think I would be that interested at first but he could win me over if I like the moveset, stage, and music enough.

As for Ring Fit Trainer, I have zero experience so I can't comment.

Predictions:
Zelda newcomer - 20%
King Boo - 15%
Gooigi - 12%

Noms: Pyramid Head x30

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Chance: 1% I know I'm gonna be the unpopular one here but screw it, Ayumi's chances are hella overplayed for 2 reasons, for starters, the remakes. These remakes were very successful for how niche the original was despite often being touted as the first VN by Nintendo fans despite Yuji Hori of Dragon Quest fame being 5 years earlier with the idea, but for starters, Nintendo outsourced the games to Mages at their request, normally, this wouldn't mean anything, but combined with how Nintendo had very little confidence in these remakes, it suggests to me that Smash wasn't going to get Ayumi as you'd think they'd be pushing it more considering we know Nintendo can and has pushed a DLC Smash character to promote a recent game, but if the game's localization only gets announced a few months before release and no physical copies outside of Japan, chances are this is a sign of lack of confidence. The other reason Ayumi is often seen as likely is because she was considered in the past and well, here's the thing with that. Ayumi isn't unique in that regard as there are countless characters who've been considered in the past and chances are we only know a handful of these, so this really isn't a factor in Ayumi's favour. "Oh but you see, we have Second Chances Theory which-" proves nothing as that already gets stretched by using FF7 already having content and can be unknown, like, if Sakurai considered Miriam for the first pass and she ended up being the final newcomer, the theory wouldn't point to that until Sakurai outright says she was considered earlier.

Want: 5% Truth be told, I found the FDC remakes very disappointing. They were very faithful to the original and had some damn good presentation, but the stories, as in, THE reason to play VNs, weren't that engaging with Ayumi herself being a significantly less interesting Maya in the first game and while the second game had me excited when she did something cool, only to be disappointed at how she quickly she loses that cool factor. It'd ****ing kill me to have a genre repped with many crazy choices that are beloved for their writing like Ace Attorney, Danganronpa, Zero Escape, Steinsgate, When They Cry and more only to go "Uhhhhhh well this one is owned by us and inspired Ace Attorney so it's just as good right?" Again, this genre has so much better so just going for the one that's only memorable for good presentation and Sakurai considering her, I cannot think about Ayumi without thinking of better VNs which have left many people, myself included, thinking about them for days, weeks, months and years. "Well Gwen, you're awfully negative, so why give a nonzero score?" Because I'm at the very least curious as to what would come up, lord knows it won't be judo or naginatas though lmao

Behold my Stand, [POLICE]

Chance: 0% Yeah nah. You can argue whatever you want but I firmly believe Spirit events shut out characters, after all, why put them in as this if you're making them playable?

Want: 20% Like Ayumi, the want score is out of curiousity as the Howards are a PlatinumGames character which feels hard to **** up but despite initially planning on buying Astral Chain, something happened, I don't know what, but I just stopped caring. Maybe I was busy with too much at the time and having too large of a backlog with the 60 dollar price tag making the game more unappealing the longer I go without buying it, maybe it was from a political point of view, one guy being a ****ter, I don't know, so I have less familiarity than the others, the music's EDM and hey, I like that **** so more points than Ayumi already. The Howards seem like they have the potential to be the most complicated characters in the game due to the potential for a puppet fighter alone, and while the idea sounds way too daunting to be fun to play, it does sound especially fun to watch as seen with every other puppet fighters, you could do a lot worse for a character I'm not really invested in to be honest.

Wii Fit Trainer 2

Chance: 0% See above

Want: 5% The game itself is pretty ok though I haven't touched it in forever due to being too exhausted after my physically taxing job but the main appeal for this seems to be "Oh look, another Nintendo character but this one is super wacky and quirky!" Not exactly what I want from any given character, but sure, would the moves at least be good? Ehhhh I doubt it, the moves would likely be handled like WFT in which the exercises are used for the normals which isn't very exciting, especially as a Deep Breathing move is bound to appear due to the whole firey hair thing. Just overall perfect material to be underwhelming if you ask me

Split noms between Soma and Junpei

 

[WeirdChillFever]

The Recent Protagonist Of A Japanese-Oriented Game Split In Two Games Being The Last Fighter (And It’s Not Corrin)
Chance: 10%
Alright we gotta stop treating being a no show at Spirit Events as a good sign instead of a pile-on on the insignificance of the fighter itself. Still, being recent and Nintendo might give leeway to unorthodox choices, considering Corrin happened. Even then, the difference in rarity/“now-or-never-factor” between a dragon-shapeshifter and a visual novel protagonist is considerable, so she doesn’t necessarily gets to be in the same boat.
Second chances also means quite little here since second chances overall is about fighters considered for Ultimate and not for being part of a list that included the Clu Clu Land ball-person. (although Ayumi was mentioned in a different context than the retro reps)

Want: 20%
Considering the other visual novels out there, I’d hate for the third party gravy train to stop just to pick up a character from a genre that contains all sorts of fan favorites between Ace Attorney and Danganropa.

ALLSES OF US (Wrong Legion)
Chance: 5%
Not because of the Spirit Event, since I do think those concerns are alleviated with Kazuya/Heihachi, but because apparently the demands for a duo fighter are pretty high with amphibious blobs Popo and Nana being the best they can handle and the Astral Chain being a duo character in their design. Astral Chain doesn‘t have the benefit of having its characters be so beloved that a swap mechanic suffices and with the lack of breakout success to go back on the Spirit Event outside of uniqueness and we’re landing at a pretty low score here.

Want: 60%
I’d like to see a new duo character so if they somehow figure it out I wouldn’t be opposed. Definitely would have the fun factor to overcome any lack of personal connection.

One Ring To Rule Them All
Chance: 15%
Now if any game escapes the Spirit Event curse, it’s either this or Pokémon. This is because of the breakout success it had which might be big enough to eclipse the expectations they had for it in the first placem big enough to go back on their plans to keep it as a Spirit Event. However, this breakout success is also a curse, since Nintendo might not have expected it having enough longevity to be relevant enough to slot it in Smash in 2021 if they did in fact plan off of the slots in 2019.

Want: 80%
Anything to motivate me to get into shape might help and is very welcome. It seems like a charming game to translate to Smash, provided it doesn’t lean too much towards what Wii Fit Trainer already does.

Nominations go towards Off The Hook

Predictions
Zelda Newcomer: 7.89%
King Boo: 13.33%
Gooigi: 2.22%

 

[fogbadge]

ninthreedo

gets credit for solving the murders even though she didnt

chances: 25% i can believe nintendo would suggest someone from the FDC remakes and shes the face of them, for some reason. sure sakurai considered her for melee but considering how quickly he abandoned the idea doesnt give me much hope. he did say that was due to her japan only status, though it didnt seem to bother him on several other occasions, that hurdle is now gone. so i think there's a chance but a small one, for some reason im not convinced that shes terribly likely.

want: 85% she be kinda fun. i did enjoy the FDC remakes bar a couple moments and she would have an unusual move set thatd be fun. truth be told id rather have the protagonist of the games and having played the games it seems as though ayumi's mascot status came out of no where. but at the same time that doesnt mean id be upset or annoyed about her getting in instead, shes far more likely anyway.

NOT akira

chances: 40% i think nintendo might have suggested it. astral chain did well enough and was well received enough that i can believe all parties would be on board for the inclusion. of course based on the half baked explanation he gave for why he cut rex we can assume that howard will be a difficult character. obviously they cant be like the ice climbers so itd have to be similar to joker. still i doubt sakurais not one to give a challenge a go especially considering the design of the female one. so really i feel it comes down to would they do it and i think they might unless theyre right about spirit events.

want: 100% astral chain was very enjoyable. sure it was far from perfect but over all the pros out weighed the cons and as a result i would welcome them in smash. theres no way howard wouldnt have a unique moveset, probably one of those ones that sound complicated til you use it. also theres some great potential for stages as well as the possibility for one that'll look like a more realistic fourside. over all this would be aa pretty cool fighter pack.

the best hair in the business

chances: 40% the sheer success of ring fit makes them seem quite possible. perhaps even enough to be immune to arbitrary spirit events rules that may or may not exist. a games sheer success alone has been enough alone to warrant a characters inclusion, although that may point more towards a mario kart or animal crossing character. the main characters from ring fit along with the titular ring seem just like the sort of characters that would turn up in smash one day. assuming its not completely forgotten about in a couple years.

want: 100% itd be cool. ring fit had all sorts of moves that would really stand out in smash and would in no way play like WFT. from the battle attacks to level traversal abilities ring fit will stand out among the smash crowd im sure. stage may not be to great and music was alright but the character alone would make the pack awesome. over all this would be a really awesome inclusion with more pros than cons. the main con being the ring might not stop telling us how shiny our sweat is. what was that about?

put however many noms that gets me towards spirit events continue after pass

id also like to say that it was interesting yesterday seeing people take a moral stance against characters because of gacha, makes you wonder what itd be like on a loot box day. do not take that as a suggestion

 

[2006ToyotaTacoma]

Ayumi Tachibana - Abstain. I know too little about the series's history, recent sales, and characters to make a sound judgement on anything about Ayumi.

________________________________

ZA WARUDO!

Chance: >1% If 3H not getting a Spirit Event before Byleth's release is anything to go by, Spirit Events are a one and done lethal blow to anyone's chances imo. They're adequate advertisement and representation in Sakurai's/Nintendo's eyes imo.

Want: 95% I just started playing Astral Chain and good God, Officer Howard would make for such a great fighter just for the Chain Counter alone. Not to mention the music would also consist of some solid bangers. He/She is probably in my top 3 of most wanted 1st party reps.

________________________________

Wii Fit 2: Electric Boogaloo

Chance: >1% See above.

Want: 50% I can see a Ring Fit Trainer having a wacky and fun moveset, but other than that I see no reason to want her. Wouldn't be disappointed by her inclusion but wouldn't be hyped either. Solid middle of the road pick imo, but if she gets in it's understandable.

Predictions:
Zelda Rep: 5%
King Boo: 3%
Gooigi: >1%

Noms: Off the Hook xhowevermanyIhave

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on Officer Howard.

Famicom Detective
Chance: 20%
Her series is definitely relevant right now, but I don't know how much that can help her. The pass was already locked in 2019, and I'm pretty sure the remake was announced way after.

Want: 80%
At this rate, I don't think she'd make a good last fighter. That said, she can still make a fun character in Smash. She was considered for Melee; if I were Sakurai and I had more time for Melee's development, I'd give the idea a bit more thought.

Ring Around the Roses
Chance: 0%
Likely murdered by the Spirit Event; unlike Ayumi, RFT can't recover from being a Spirit because the Ring Fit Spirit event happened after Vol. 2's characters were already decided.

Want: 100%
Which is a shame, because they would be unique from WFT. Wii Fit and Ring Fit are two totally different games, and the latter's the most fun I've had with a fitness game in my life.

Zelda Rep: 5%
King Boo: 10%
Gooigi: 5%

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x3
[Rerate] Sora x2

 

[BowserKing]

Ayumi

Chance: 25%. Her chance of showing up has risen, due to her games being remade for the switch. She was also planned for Melee as well, but while she has a spirit, it does not discomfirm.

Want: 50% She would be fun to play as, and I can see her face off against Joker in a match. Overall, She would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Legonis (or Officer Howard)

Chance: 5%. A spirit event has reduced most of those chances of the Officers to show up. They could appear as a Mii Costume, but even that’s is stretching it. For the next game, it could rise, but I’m not holding my breath.

Want: 50%. The Legonis (my preferred term for the Officers) would be fun characters to play as, and I can see Legonis challenge Ridley to a fight. Overall, the Legonis (or Officer Howard’s if you prefer) would make decent Smash Bros fighter’s, perhaps more.

Ring Fit Trainnee

Chance: 5%. Again, they had a spirit event, so their chance is quite low as well. They couldn’t appear as a MIi Costume, but even that is a stretch.

Want: 50%. Ring Fit Trainee would be fun to play as, and I can see them and the Wii Fit Trainers fight each other. Overall, Ring Fit Trainee would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: New Zelda Fighter (30%), King Boo (15%) and Gooigi (5%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 20%

As long as FDC doesn't get a spirit event between now and whenever CP11 is announced then her chances are still alive and I do believe the final character will be a 'lowkey' first party so Ayumi may be able to take up that spot, though just because there is a lack of a spirit event does not mean playability, plus she still has the problem of whether or not Nintendo planned to localize the FDC games while they were deciding on the second pass.

Want: 80%

I did enjoy the FDC games, but I also think Ayumi might end up being a fun wacky character with whatever Sakurai decides to do with her moveset. And if we are not going to get Phoenix Wright or any other VN character then at least she can represent that genre.



Akira Howard

Chance: 0%

Yes, I still believe that any spirit event that has released during the second pass's run disconfirms any characters/game from the second pass selection and even if there were an exception then I am more willing to believe in Resident Evil or Gen 8 mon happening more than Astral Chain.

Want: 20%

I haven't played the games, but Officer Howard seems like they have a very fun and engaging moveset so I am all for it.



Abstain on Ring Fit Trainer

Noms to Off the Hook

 

[jamesster445]

Ayumi

I'm going to abstain on this one.

Officer Howard
Chance 1%
Want 90%

Even if the spirit event wasn't an issue I dont think they're likely. They wouldnt make it for reasons similar to "Rex and Pyra". Astral Chain's duo system is very similar to Xenoblade 2's (if not even more complex) and we know how that went. It's a shame, Astral Chain's OST is a banger.

Ring Fit Trainee
Chance: 10%
Want: 100%

Ring Fit is one of my favorite games on Switch. The world is funny and charming as is its characters. The trainee themself have a great opportunity to have a fun, creative and funny moveset. I think their chances are gone after the spirit event, but I think they're a potential lock for the next game.

Nominations: Among us mii x5

 

[Lyncario]

The cool first parties

Ayumi

Chance: 3%

Sakurai wanted Ayumi to be in Smash back in Melee, but did not put her in due to having trouble giving her a moveset. This shouldn't be a problem anymore since we got many wild movesets since. And considering that her games have remakes for Switch available worldwide, she shouldn't really have anything left to hold her back from getting in Smash, especialy since she's a legacy character dating back from the Famicom. Yeah, she doesn't really have anything that goes against her, especialy since Nintendo could want to shill her game by putting her in Smash. Problem with this, her games did not have an international release date until very recently, so there's a chance that Nintendo did not bother about wanting her in Smash since it was unknown if her game would release worldwide at the time. And of course, Sakurai wanting her in Melee doesn't matter all that much for Ultimate 20 years laters, since there's very obviously a lot of characters that Sakurai would like to see in Smash but who aren't in, Ayumi just happens to be one of them.

Want: 80%

Ayumi would be pretty cool in Smash. She's a good character with a good design, and she could have a very fun moveset, on top of it Smash would give osme love to a new series, so that by itself would be good. Though I haven't played the games yet, I do think that Ayumi joining Smash would be pretty cool.

Ring Fit

Chance: 0%

I will keep it plain and simple, it's the spirit event. I believe that post launch spirit events are disconfirms for dlc, seeing how Sakurai specifically choose them to get spirit events, and so it wouldn't make any sense if Ring Fit was then a dlc fighter. And while you can point out Heihachi's mii then Kazuya being a dlc fighter debunking that, this also ignores the unique circumstances that they have since Harada, creator of Tekken, would know things that even Nintendo employees don't when it comes to Smash as he's not only a friend of Sakurai but also since Bandai Namco helps make Smash. This also includes Harada's trollish personality, that, combined with Sakurai's own trollish side, means that they probably actualy went "if we make Heihachi's mii come back early, it would be very funny". And this was only possible because of a mix of many things, that Ring Fit mostly doesn't have. So yeah, sorry Ring Fit Adventurer, but I think that you have no shot. If a third fighter pass were to happen, then I think that Ring Fit would have a very decent shot, but alas, we don't have that.

Want: 85%

First of all, no, Ring Fit wouldn't work as an echo for Wii Fit, with part of it being because Wii Fit is more focused on the suposedly relaxing excerises known as yoga for her moveset, and those suposedly relaxing excercises are not in Ring Fit as far as I know, and is instead more pure sport. Which is also what both games were mostly advertised on. So yeah, Ring Fit would have a moveset based on excercises, and I think that it could be very, or at the very least unique, in a similar way that Wii Fit is. So yeah, I do think that Ring Fit would be pretty cool in Smash.

Akira Howard

Chance: 0%

Remember what I said for Ring Fit? Yeah, the same mostly applies here, with Astral Chain getting a post-launch spirit event. And while Nintendo fully owns it now, it doesn't really means anything for the near future, because if anything they have a good shot for the next Smash, but not Ultimate. And yeah, next Smash specifically, not for a third fighter pass that could have been, because from Sakurai's presentation on Pyra and Mythra, we know that having Rex and Pyra or Mythra on the screen as the same character was too much for the Switch to handle, or at least for now. So now guess how good it is for a character with a design about as complex if not more to Rex and Pyra/Mythra, but also a stand that does far more than Arsene? Yeah, not good.

Want: 98%

Why yes, that chance section did hurt to write down, since in the end it's not even the spirit event that killed their chances, but purely how they are. Akira Howard happens to be one of my most wanted, right after Dante on my list. Why? First of all, Astral Chain is an amazing game, one of my favorite games on the Switch (currently 3rd favorite after Nocturne HD and BotW, which is saying a lot considering both are in my top 5 favorite games of all time), and it's my second favorite action game after DMC5. So yeah, I do think that it's really good, and that you should play it. The gameplay is super good both with and without the legion, learning to play with it while also playing it as a character-action game as the same time feels so good. The plot is also amazing. The astral plane would be such an amazing stage. And the music would so amazing. Definitively one of the greatest game series started and owned by Nintendo recently, and I'm so glad that it's doing better than what Platinum games expected it to do, meaning that a sequel is all but guaranteed.

And now, as a bit of a TL;DR. They're all super cool, but it sucks that they all have basically no chance, so this is basically how I felt writing this

Also those characters are good reminder that Nintendo still has a lot until it hits the "bottom of the barrel" for first party characters in Smash.

Nominations

Everything this got me on... the currently number 15 on the nominated ranking.

Predictions

Zelda character: 6.8%

King Boo: 12.3%

Gooigi: 2.1%

 

[Sari]

The Girl Who Stands Behind trophy #287 in the list of Melee trophies

Chance: 2%
Up until the remakes that released this May, the FDC series has been Japanese exclusive. We know that Sakurai chose to not add Takamaru in SSB4's base game for being unknown to the rest of the world. So a Japanese-exclusive character who most of the world doesn't know about as DLC? Yeah, not happening.

And before you say Roy/Lucas in SSB4, they were playable in past Smash games so that's a completely different situation.

I mentioned earlier that the remakes were announced before FP2, so perhaps there's a chance Ayumi could be added in Smash to promote the games? Well sadly I doubt it since Nintendo didn't really promote the remakes all that much and they were announced for the West just a few months before release. If Ayumi really was happening, I feel like Nintendo would promote these games more than than they actually did.

With the FDC series now available in the West and the series potentially getting a new game in the future, I can see Ayumi being a lot more likely for the next Smash. She was even considered for Melee so it isn't something completely impossible. But like with Dante, this feels like a character whose Smash-hype train started too late.

Want: 80%
I played through the remakes and found them to be fun experiences. Of course they had a lot of flaws (especially the first game), but I found the stories to be enjoyable and would like to see another game in the series. I'm also a sucker for more unrepped Nintendo IPs getting into Smash, whether it be a brand new series like ARMS or a recently revived one like FDC.

Ayumi Tachibana would be a really strange character in terms of gameplay (even I have no idea how she'd actually play) but I feel like Sakurai could do a good job at representing the games while making her a fun fighter. Of course as far as VN reps go, I wouldn't want her over Phoenix, but if Ayumi was the first VN character we got then I wouldn't be too mad.

-----

The closest we'll ever get to a true JoJo character (even moreso than Joker)

Chance: 0%
Astral Chain got spirited away just a few days before Byleth's reveal. Granted that was still in FP1, however with how close it was to FP2 (and not tied into a launch day promotional event or anything like that), I'm going to go on a hunch and say that Officer Howard really isn't happening. There's also the issue of having Howard/Legion work properly since we know Rex/Pyra couldn't happen due to technical issues and the former would be much more difficult to implement. They could maybe find a (really awkward) work around for it, but I feel this might be another Heihachi in SSB4 scenario where they were considered but in the end just couldn't work out.

Since Nintendo recently acquired the Astral Chain IP, I think Howard may be a near lock for the next game if they want to make this their next big IP. However like with Ayumi, this is another character that got a lot of benefits too late.

Want: 80%
EDIT: I'm going to bring this up to an 80% (originally was a 60%) just because I don't want my playstyle concerns affecting the score too much. I want Howard to have a high score so we know how much they were wanted when we look back on this years in the future.

Astral Chain is a lot of fun. I haven't finished it yet but from what I've played, it is really enjoyable. There is so much they can do with the Legion gameplay that I am really looking forward to what the series holds in store for the future. Also the soundtrack is really great so I'd love to hear Savior and Dark Hero in Smash.

My score would be a tad higher if it wasn't for one thing: Pyra/Mythra. We know from the Pythra presentation that Rex/Pyra wasn't able to happen due to technical issues. If that's the case then I seriously doubt Officer Howard would be able to be represented well in Ultimate. In Xenoblade 2, the Driver character (such as Rex) fights while the Blade character (such as Pyra) stands by and provides you buffs. However in Astral Chain, you fight alongside your Stand Legion which complicates things even further.

So if Rex/Pyra weren't possible then there's no way that a character like THIS would be able to work in Ultimate:

And this video isn't even everything. Even using just 1 of the 5 Legions, you can do things like fight one enemy while your Legion fights another, perform combo moves using the actual chain you hold, etc.

If Astral Chain did get a rep in Ultimate, it'd either be Officer Howard with an Arsene-like Legion (that just buffs your existing attacks/only appears in a few moves) or the Legion by itself as a character. Both of those would be really lame to the point where I'd prefer if we waited for the next game to see Howard's true potential. When we eventually get an Astral Chain rep in Smash one day, I want it to be done right without cutting any corners.

-----

Abstaining on Ring Fit.

-----

Chance predictions:

• Zelda newcomer: 18.00%
• King Boo: 10.00%
• Gooigi: 6.66%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x30

 

[Lyncario]

Also, why is the thread's title still for yersterday? Are we still in gacha hell? Is this requiem?

 

[Sari]

Also, why is the thread's title still for yersterday? Are we still in gacha hell? Is this requiem?

TCT~Phantom is unavailable so I shall summon Megadoomer to change the title to:

Day 628: Ayumi Tachibana (Famicom Detective Club), Officer Howard (Astral Chain), and Ring Fit Trainee (Ring Fit Adventure).

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Officer Howard

Chance: 0% - I know Kazuya's a thing, but with only one slot left, I just don't see this happening. Why? Simple, Astral Chain got a DLC spirit event. These events are chosen with DLC characters in mind, it's why we didn't get a Three Houses event when Byleth was coming. And the Astral Chain spirit event was even done early last year, well after the DLC for Pass #2 was chosen. There's also the issue of Astral Chain's duo system/legionaries. We didn't get Rex himself since he and Pyra on screen would've been too system taxing for 8 player Smash. With lighting effects, Officer Howard would have this problem and more if 8 were on screen at the same time, 16 high-fidelity models. Short and simple, Officer Howard isn't happening.

Want: 10% - Never played the game, not too interested in Platinum's stuff, and, while this is going to be a hot take, the franchise is too new. I'm one who thinks a character should earn their spot in Smash, and getting in purely because you're a Nintendo series really shouldn't happen. A series should establish itself first as a franchise or as one of Nintendo's mainstays if first party. For example, let's take Pikmin and Splatoon. Pikmin 1 released in 2001, around the same time as Melee. Meanwhile Splatoon released in 2015, right during Ultimate's DLC period. Both were extremely new and experimental games, and nobody knew how they would progress. While Splatoon had a big popularity boom, for all we knew back then it could've been a one game wonder (and even then, Splatoon has trouble keeping the interest of its' hardcore audience). Thus Olimar in Melee and Inklings in Smash 4 would've been absurd, getting in purely because they're new Nintendo franchises. Now, in reality, Olimar came along in Brawl and Inklings in Ultimate. By the times of their respective inclusions in their respective Smash games, both franchises had two big main series games under their belts, along with plenty of fans and merchandise. The two had established themselves firmly as mainstay Nintendo franchises rather than being uncertain, potential one-game wonders. This is why I'd be so critical if Officer Howard got in as our last character. The franchise hasn't really grown yet, but by next game it may be a very different case. This score will go up more if Astral Chain as a franchise cements itself, but for right now it should sit out. I know some people are worried about franchises like this "missing the boat", but if they've truly earned their place in Smash they'll remain relevant and thriving, and thus they'll be getting on the next boat instead!


Ring Fit Trainees

Chance: 0% - Everything that hurts Officer Howard also hurts the Trainees, minus the model fidelity issue. One would think that it'd be prime for shilling because it sold well (in fact it's one of the Switch's top 50 best selling games). But again, that post-release after-DLC2-was-decided spirit event the game got really knocks it down. Now, they're in a great spot for next game, but for right now, Training is cancelled.

Want: 20% - Same exact issues I have that apply to Astral Chain apply to Ring Fit as well. Way too new of a franchise, and while it DID sell very well, I want to see that success continue and to see it establish itself before it gets into Smash. Though I will give it some more credit, the world in that game intrigues me way more than Astral Chain's does. Plus it's way more interesting than Wii Fit is (that had to use poses as spirits)! Drageaux's also hilarious since he looks like a bootleg Zavok XD. Still, I wanna see this franchise cement itself before entering Smash, so this score could go up in the future!


Ayumi Tachibana

Chance: 5% - I think people are WAY overrating her. While I said earlier that having a spirit event post-release hurts you, Ayumi's the other side of the coin. Not having one doesn't guarantee you a slot either. Several other games, including bigger contender Luigi's Mansion 3 haven't gotten them yet either. With only one slot left only one of them could be correct, thus you can't guarantee a character based on it. Furthermore, while Nintendo's given the games decent promotion, it's nothing to write home about on first party game standards. We don't even know when they decided to localize the two games, it could've very well happened well after the pass was already chosen. Plus the localizations were outsourced rather than being done in-house, so Nintendo probably doesn't have much confidence in the franchise, at least not yet. Plus it's been Japanese-exclusive until a few months ago, so the Takamaru Clause could easily come into effect. People are really only confident in her because shiny new game + second chance theory. While she's in a better position for next game, any benefits she has came way too late.

Want: 20% - Now, don't get me wrong, like Officer Howard and Ring Fit Trainees, I don't think Ayumi's a bad character. But now really isn't the time for her, and I don't think she deserves a spot just because she's first party. While she certainly helped pioneer visual novels, she's been Japan-exclusive for 30 years, and extremely obscure until recently. I know I've shown support for characters like Arle Nadja and Don-chan, but while their franchises are also mostly Japan-exclusive, their circumstances are much different. To start, they've both been ongoing since their conception, while FDC was dormant for 30 years. Furthermore, not only did they get periodic localizations during the early 2000's (Taiko Drum Master and Puyo Pop Fever), but their recent western pushes started way earlier than Ayumi. Both of them got started in 2017 with Puyo Puyo Tetris and Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun/Drum Session. And their localizations continued with Puyo Puyo Champions, Puyo Puyo Tetris 2, and Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythmic Adventure Pack (localizations of Don and Katsu's Space-Time Adventure and Dokodon! Mystery Adventure). So they've already got momentum and their Western fanbases are growing. Ayumi just doesn't have that. Furthermore, it's no secret to some of you that I'm a big fan of Ace Attorney, a much bigger VN franchise. This franchise, while starting over a decade later, has seen consistent releases, localizations, and is much MUCH more well known. Lots of people know Phoenix or the iconic "OBJECTION!" bubble, even if they haven't played the games. Meanwhile, most people have never heard of Ayumi or Famicom Detective Club. Seeing Phoenix get snubbed for Ayumi is like taking the trophy away from the Tortoise and giving it to the Hare, who just woke up from a nap. Ayumi's not a bad character, but it just isn't her time, and I wouldn't want to see her get chosen over Phoenix.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xAll

Predictions:
Zelda Newcomer - 15.78% - It's still Zelda's 35th and Breath of the Wild 2 is on the Horizon, so Zelda's in a good spot. So some decent ratings are definitely expected.
King Boo - 16.96% - Missing Luigi's Mansion 3 spirit event is gonna be the main basis for King Boo's arguments, though with his status as a series mainstay he'll get solid ratings regardless.
Gooigi - 1.33% - Not expecting much for Gooigi, a squishy echo does not look like a viable DLC choice, even with the missing spirit event.

 

[GoodGrief741]

She fights crime

Chance: 30%
I make no reservations about the fact that I think getting a promotional first party character is the likeliest outcome in my view. Ayumi is the deuteragonist and de facto face of two recent visual novels released by Nintendo. While it's the first time a FDC game releases in the West, they're classics in their homeland, which puts Ayumi in a strange situation where she's a shill pick for one region and a legacy pick for the other. Regardless, she'd make a lot of sense for FP11 as she'd be by far the most obscure of the fighters and the one from the nichest genre.

I disagree with some of the comments I read regarding Nintendo's confidence in the project. For one, I think a localization was always planned for this game, it just wasn't announced for worldwide release until much later. I'm no expert but I doubt they would have been able to translate two games to several languages on such a short turnaround. These are text-heavy games where the translation is crucial to understanding and enjoyment. Also, I think the games were pretty heavily advertised for its genre; I recall seeing a lot of trailers for it, at least, but then again that might be a biased experience as I was super hyped for them.

Another factor to take into account was the fact that Ayumi was considered in the past for 64 and Melee. Now I personally think the whole Second Chance theory is bunk and can be used to retroactively include anything. And also that in a pass decided by Nintendo, what Sakurai considered in the past should have no bearing on their choices. But I guess if I'm being generous it could be argued that it'd help her over other characters in her situation that don't have that going for her (like Andy?)

Want: 100%
The FDC remakes were pipe dream games to me and two of my most expected games for 2021 (and that's saying a lot when like 7 of my pipe dream games all release or were announced in 2021). I love me a good detective story and I love obscure Nintendo stuff getting the limelight so this is tailor made for me.

"Your sweat is so shiny and beautiful!"
-Actual quote from the game

Chance: 1%
RFA got a Spirit Event. But I guess with Kazuya proving that DLC Mii Costumes of other characters don't matter, the argument could be made that DLC Spirits don't matter either. Kinda flimsy but I'm open to it. Whatever happens, the Trainee is a lock for Smash 6. The game sold like 10 million copies, that's insane.

Want: 100%
I love this game. I'm your stereotypical sedentary gamer so this game was my salvation, helped me keep active during the pandemic. I learned a lot about how to exercise and it really changed my perspective on what I could get out of it.

The Trainee would have a completely different moveset from WFT, all of their attacks summon giant ghost fists (and ghost feet, and ghost abs) to attack at a distance like a more disjointed Bayonetta. There's a lot of cool vistas that would make for wonderful stages and the music is underrated.

Tetsuoooo!!
Kanedaaaaa!!!

Chance: 0%
The same Spirit Event issue that plagues the Trainee plagues Officer Howard. It might just disconfirm them. However I think there's a much bigger issue for them which is what happened to the Ice Climbers in 4 and Rex just a few months ago. If the Switch can't handle 8 Rex & Pyras, it certainly can't handle 8 Howard & Legions. Howard is about as detailed as your average Xenoblade character but the Legions are all even moreso with super intricate designs, plus a ton of particle effects. I can't see that not being the most taxing combo ever for the Switch so I think this falls straight into the unfeasible category. Unless Sakurai does something dumb again like having just Howard using the X-Baton.

Honestly this gives me pause about considering them a lock for Smash 6 in general, the game's success would seem to support that but I didn't expect the Switch to have that problem. It would depend on either Sakurai ditching 8 player Smash (or making some characters not playable in it), or Nintendo making an actually powerful system for a change. Hopefully they can work it out.

Want: 100%
Astral Chain is my favorite Platinum game. The combat is insane, the sheer breadth and variety of tools at your disposal and how you connect them is way beyond what I'd come to expect even from them. The cyberpunk aesthetic is awesome, the story is as bombastic as can be, the characters are cool and likable, the mission variety is great in how it lets you play the role of a hero cop doing even the smallest good deeds (like picking up trash). It's just fantastic all around. So yeah, I think Howard would be a pretty alright pick.

Now if you'll excuse me I have to go play Ring Fit Adventure.

Zelda prediction: 19.44%
King Boo prediction: 7.11%
Gooigi prediction: 1.94%

Nominations go to Giygas

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Saber/Euden/Gran/Djeeta pre-Ayumi Tachibana/Officer Howard/Ring Fit Trainee

[Rerate] Louie x465
Octoling x438
Mii Costume: 2B x415
Pyramid Head x405
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x325
Junpei (Zero Escape) x314
Meat Boy x305

300 - 251

Corvo Attano x295
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x295
Tetra x260
Senator Armstrong x260

250 - 201

Ori x235
Gunvolt x225

200 - 151

Stage: Bowser's Castle x192
Ratchet & Clank x190
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Boss: Rayquaza x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
[Rerate] Kiryu x165

150 - 101

[Rerate] Bandana Dee x150
Echo (Bowser) x148
Giygas x140
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Boss: Ender Dragon x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x120
D.Va x115
Fulgore x112
[Rerate] Gene x110
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

Legends Trainer x90
Soma Cruz x86
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
[Rerate] Eggman x71
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
[Rerate] Sora x44
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Lugia x30
Off The Hook x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
DJ Octavio x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Mii Costume: Among Us x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Louie nabs first place from Octoling. Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku passes Meat Boy and Junpei and takes fifth place. Since Corvo Attano is no longer tied with it, he's out of the top seven.

Off The Hook dance past 25 noms.

Today's new nominees are Arcueid Brunestud, and Mii Costume: Among Us, both with 5 noms.

 

[Idon]

Ayumi:
Chance: 0%
Spirit Event
Want: Abstain
I haven't exactly played her game, so no opinion.

Ring Fit Girl:
Chance: 0%
Spirit Event
Want: Abstain
I haven't played her game either, but I imagine it might be a fun workout supplement.

The Howards:
Chance: 0%
As much as it pains me to say it.........
Spirit Event.
Want: 100%
Holy **** I love Astral Chain. This might be a controversial opinion to hold, but I think it's my favorite of Platinum's games. Their goofy and hammy story which the characters take completely seriously, the perfect blend of puzzle/combo combat, the sci-fi aesthetic, the banging soundtrack, the goddamn STANDS, and whatever else I forgot. I genuinely believe that this is my ABSOLUTE favorite Nintendo IP on the Switch and I am ready and willing for more. My only gripe is that it's 30 fps but let's face it the Switch can't run 60 fps action games unless they're from the PS2.

I suppose I'll through my man amageish a bone and nominate Danganronpa protags.

 

[Perkilator]

Ayumi:
Chance: 0%
Spirit Event
Want: Abstain
I haven't exactly played her game, so no opinion.

Ayumi hasn't had a Spirit Event yet, though. She's a base game Spirit (albeit not the most likely one).

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Louie nabs first place from Octoling.

GATHER AROUND! THE KING OF BUGS IS SERVING UP SOME SPICY TAKOYAKI TONIGHT!

Ayumi hasn't had a Spirit Event yet, though. She's a base game Spirit (albeit not the most likely one).

This could explain why she hasn't gotten a spirit event yet. Spirit events containing new spirits are usually for games or franchises that are unrepresented, and Ayumi technically counts as "represented" with her spirit.

 

[FemMain26]

Ayumi:
Chance: 50/50
Want: 100%
Have played both games.

Astral Chain:
Chance: 30%
Want: 0%

Ring Fit Trainer:
Chance: 10%
Want: 0%