Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DanganZilla5]

We have to eventually get a non-triforce user....right??

Chance: 10%

My gut says that this probably won't happen, despite the fact that it's likely we will get a first party character. Let's break this down.

BOTW 2 Zelda: Originally my choice for a bleak last choice but from what we've seen of BOTW 2 it looks like Zelda probably won't be playable so I don't think this will happen. I'm still a bit curious on why Sakurai just randomly brought up Zelda's design in two different presentations but at this point it's probably just a coincidence and not a subtle warning to brace for her like my pessimism side believes.

Champions: Probably the most likely Zelda newcomers. People often say that they wouldn't just make one of the champions playable since they are equally important....but would Nintendo really care about that? If they wanted to shill BOTW 2 by putting in a champion Nintendo would likely just ask Sakurai to choose one of them. I doubt they would care about being seen as biased.

Calamity Ganon: I guess this could happen but I doubt they would sell what is essentially the same character that is already on the roster just with a different moveset and appearance.

Impa: I think the Age of Calamity spirit event really hurts her chances. Granted that is specifically that game's version of the character but something tells me that Nintendo wouldn't have put her in the event if she was coming later as a playable character.

Everyone else: At this point I don't think fan demand can even save the likes of Skull KId, Ghirahim, Midna, etc. They do have a few benefits like the fact that they probably did well on the ballot and Skull Kid was chosen for Cadence of Hyrule. But generally there is not much pointing towards these characters.

Overall, there are not many candidates here that seem feasible aside from the Champions and even then judging by past DLC I think it's likely that Nintendo will go with something that would actually benefit from the shill power of Smash.

Want: 50%

This covers a wide range of characters that I have different opinions on. If we get Impa, Skull Kid, Ghirahim, or Midna, I would be chill with them. If we get one of the Champions I sleep. If we get Calamity Ganon I think that would be awesome but also disappointing since it's not a brand new character. If we get BOTW 2 Zelda my hair is gonna get ripped out. If it's Tingle I will laugh my ass off.

____________________________________

Insert ghost pun here

Chance: 10%

KIng Boo's main argument is the missing Luigi's Mansion 3 spirit event. I get it, the game was very successful, it got a lot of love from Nintendo, and it was released in 2019 which puts it in a good spot. But I have my reservations. One, I really think that the main reason why we didn't get a LM3 spirit event is simply because King Boo and several Luigi's Mansion related characters and objects already have spirits. Two, King Boo to me feels like he's in the same situation as Toad. An iconic staple of the series and is well deserving of a slot, but there is really no special attribute about them that makes them a shoehorn and that Sakurai is not rushing to add them. I still think he has a decent chance and to be fair there isn't anything hurting his chances aside from general competition but it's gonna take more than just a missing spirit event to convince me he has a real good chance.

Want: 55%

I have no strong feelings about King Boo making it into Smash. But as a horror fan I would welcome the kind of content his challenger pack would have. Luigi's Mansion and Dracula's Castle are some of my favorite stages (With the latter being my top favorite) due to their atmosphere. So yeah I would be down for this due to the creative moveset and the atmospheric stage.

_____________________

I would not be surprised if there was irl Gooigi candy since he looks tasty

Chance: 1%

I'm not feeling this at all. To my knowledge Gooigi is just a clone of Luigi which would make him a good fit as an alt or echo fighter but not as his own fighter. There is also the fact that Luigi already uses the Poltergust in his final smash and grab which would make it even more difficult for Gooigi to stand out as a DLC character. Combine that with competition with King Boo and you have a recipe of a super low chance.

Want: 1%

Gooigi would be very cool....as an alt or echo fighter. I've already implied this with the above paragraph but I struggle to see them not only making Gooigi unique but also marketing him as a character worth buying when he is just Luigi with a goo model. I know it sounds petty when I put it that way but I just don't see him as DLC worthy. Out of all the Mario characters from Waluigi to Paper Mario to King Boo, Gooigi would just be underwhelming.

Predictions
Rayman - 7%
Sol Badguy - 15%
Disgaea - 9%

Pyramid Head should be safe for now so noms will go to....

Destroy All Humans content x25
(This can be anything from a challenger pack, Mii costume or spirit event)

 

[fogbadge]

i do like it when we do nintendo

MORE ZELDA

chances: 10% my instinct is that its not happening. now i can believe that nintendo would suggest someone from any of the zelda titles on switch, botw, hwde, la, aoc and botw 2 i just dont think sakurai will go for it. again its just a gut feeling but it feels like he thinks there series is best represented by its three main characters like with kirby. zelda is a huge series with many other reccuring characters in it so the fact that its been this long since we got one and i think young link is only back cause of "everyone is here" then i just think he has other priorities.

want: 100% i adore the series and more characters from it would just be great. there are so many good choices, impa, linkle, midna, fi, tetra, id even take tingle, epona or a loftwing. for me zelda is the best thing ever and just having more of it in smash would always be awesome and hype.

my kingdom for vacuum repellent

chances: 40% again i think nintendo would suggest someone from LM3 but i cant help but wonder if sakurai thinks what its got is enough. now sure theres that absent spirit event and with byleth there is precedent but i wouldnt be surprised if they had just forgotten it. out of all characters who could rep LM3 he does make the most sense. but again im just not sure itll happen.

want: 85% after all toads he is probably my second choice for a mario character. im not sure why maybe i just think there wouldnt another fighter like him. we certainly dont have any ghosts on the roster yet. they guy has a lot to pull from, king boo would be a unique character for many reasons and would potentially be a lot of fun. he'd be a nice enough way to round off the pass.

invincible fragility

chances 5% theres an off chance sakurai would pick him for an lm3 character but not a great one. honestly i think gooigi's best chance is as an echo and i dont think we're getting dlc echoes. now theres enough original moves for him to be a fully unique character, not that did daisy and dark samus any good, but i just dont see it happening. and at the end of the day all we can go on is our guts and our perceptions of sakurai.

want: 85% i dunno why but i love gooigi. as a unique character or an echo or semi echo hed be tons of fun. give him plunger shots instead of fire balls and in burst instead of the super jump punch and we're golden. i suppose it would make sense for him to be lighter than luigi as well. any wayway he be a nice addition to the roster but i think his best shot would be as a last minute echo.

noms go towards spirit events continue after pass

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain.

Rayman: 10%
Sol Badguy: 10%
Disgaea rep: 10%

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x2
[Rerate] Sora x3

 

[BowserKing]

New Zelda rep

Chance: 20%. With a new Breath of the Wild game and a rerelease of Skyward Sword, a new Zelda rep seems likely, but the question is who? Besides, we are overdue for one either way and while the franchise is well represented, a new one would not hurt.

Want: 100%. We do need a new Legend of Zelda fighter and the choices are interesting. My main choice is Midna, followed by Skull Kid, the Champions, Vaati and Ganon. If we get one of those as a newcomer, then it would be hype. Overall, a New Fighter Fighter is long overdue and a rep would be worth it for Smash.

King Boo

Chance: 10%. Given that Luigi’s Mansion 3 didn’t get a spirit event, King Boo’s chance could rise. But of course he is a spirit, but that does not discomfirm him, but with one slot left, it would be a tight one.

Want: 85% King Boo would totally be fun to play as, and a ghost character would be an interesting choice for a Smash Bros fighter (Dragapult and Decidueye are higher in the ghost department). I can see King Boo have a rematch with Luigi, but also see him fight Lucas. Overall, King Boo would make a great choice for a Smash bros Rep.

Gooigi

Chance: 5%. Despite that Luigi’s Mansion 3 did not have a spirit event, I don’t see Gooigi getting in. This is because it’s more likely that he would be a Luigi Echo instead and thanks to some conformation, there is only one slot left.

Want: 80%. However, Gooigi would be a fun character to play as, and I can see him and Luigi team up against Mewtwo and Bowser, or even Dracula. Overall, Gooigi would make a great Luigi Echo.

Prediction: Ray-Man (15%), Sol (10%) and Disgaea Rep (10%)

Noms: 5 for Lugia

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

20+ years without a new rep
Chance: 1%
Whenever this topic comes up I often split up the options in a BotW camp and one with characters not related to that game. For BotW we've got the champions of course as well as playable Zelda and about every character in AoC. (I'm still early into that game so please no spoilers) I don't see Zelda 2.0 happening since I don't think Sakurai will backtrack about what he said regarding that incarnation. Hyrule Warriors doesn't proof that much and we still have no hints at her actually being playable in BotW 2 and it's looking like that game will release way too late to line up with the DLC anyway. Not to mention, it would be pretty lame atleast imo. A champion feels definitely more plausible, Warriors helps them much more. And yes, I mean just one since my gut doesn't really agree with the "You can't just have one of them playable" thing anymore. Regardless there's still a problem in the Spirit Event that happened with AoC's release as well as the Ancient Armor costume potentially hinting early that anything BotW is out of the running. Yeah AoC's a spin-off but since it's canon to the main game (I'm not actually sure, don't yell at me) it's easy to imagine those Spirits would've been saved for the character whenever they would drop. Speaking of which, AoC Impa is actually one of those Spirits and also the 2nd Impa Spirit in general. I considered her to be in the grey area that fits in both camps but now this likely means any incarnation of her ain't happening. All of those previously popular request like Skull Kid and Midna I also hold no hope for. With one character left, I easily see them staying Assist Trophies at this point.

Want: 5%
I'm currently going through AoC and I would be pretty content with a champion. Not much interest in anybody else though. I'd rather not have another version of a Triforce wielder and I don't have much attachment to most Zelda game for me to want those one offs. Plus the franchise is already pretty well off barring the roster. I'd rather have a first party franchise with an even bigger representation problem (Kirby) or one that lacks a character on the roster at all like Rhythm Heaven.

King Boob
Chance: 0%
Luigi's Mansion 3 has come and gone and it won't be getting more promotion at this point. Something about it having no Spirit event but I'm pretty sure King Boo is already in the base game as one of those and that Luigi's Mansion has enough representation that they simply didn't have to do one. And no, there's no villain theme in Ultimate and there never was one.

Want: 0%
I haven't played any of the LM games. Not that I don't care, just that I haven't bothered. Still, I don't care much at all for Crown Boomba. There are simply first parties I have much higher interest in. Even as far as Mario characters go, King Boo still isn't next in line.

Glue-igi
Chance: 0%
This thing's not happening for the same reason King Boo's not happening. LM just doesn't feel like it needs or will get more representation. This also screams echo-fighter and in return Sakurai screams that those aren't happening anymore.

Want: Abstaining

Rayman: 15.26%
Sol Badguy: 26.11%
Disgea: 4.33%
Bandana Dee x20

 

[GoodGrief741]

The Game with no Name

Chance: 20%
Breath of the Wild 2, or whatever it ends up being called*, is set for release in 2022. Barring a simultaneous release with a major hardware upgrade like the elusive Switch Pro, consensus is that it's likely to be a holiday title. It's the biggest ace up Nintendo's sleeve unless they buck the trend and are actually working on Odyssey 2. That would seem to put it squarely outside of the promotional window.

Still, I see it as plausible for a pair of reasons. For one, the pandemic puts any release date into question (which frankly makes it hard to discuss promotional reps). But the main reason is that this is a huge title for Nintendo, they've been advertising it since 2019, so I wouldn't put it past them to go all in anyway. But to be fair the release date shenanigans take BotW2 from being on its own category to being one possible huge Nintendo title that could get an ahead-of-schedule promotion (like Splatoon 3 to name just one).

We don't know much, if anything about BotW2, so speculating who would rep it is nigh impossible. It could be Zelda, it could be dehydrated Ganondorf, it could be a returning character from BotW or a new one altogether. However I think it's worth pointing out that they aren't revealing the title yet because it would spoil something. The only things I can think of that'd be worth hiding: a major gameplay mechanic that they want to announce later (Legend of Zelda: Link and Zelda's Double Trouble) or the return of a story element from a previous game (The Legend of Zelda: Journey Into Gamelon). Either way I think it implies there'll be a major character that one way or another would be this game's rep, but it's inconclusive.

Another wrinkle: this year also saw the release of Skyward Sword HD. And from what we've seen of BotW2 traveling skyward seems to be one of the major new additions. Could there be a connection between the two titles that makes Fi, or Ghirahim, or Demise, or Groose a surprise contender?

Added an extra 5% for the possibility that we get a non-promotional character just out of demand (and I guess anniversary celebration though it appears that they aren't doing anything else for it).

Want: 100%
There are several Zelda characters that I'd love, some that I'd be cool with and some that would disappoint me. But at this point I'll just take any character because it's been so long and the franchise deserves the love. Crazy it's taken this long.

*My money's on The Legend of Zelda: Rise of Cyber-Link

I Am The Great Mighty Boo

Chance: 5%
Luigi's Mansion 3 was a huge game. And it still mysteriously has no Spirit Event. However it released on Halloween 2019. Given what we know, this Pass was likely decided before the end of September of that year, so LM3 would've been unreleased by then. This puts it into perspective as they wouldn't have known it would sell 9 million copies back then and likely expected way less. It still begs the question of why it hasn't had a Spirit Event after it sold like crazy. Unfortunately I believe it might be because it's a Western developed spin-off and Nintendo just doesn't care.

Want: 100%
I didn't use to be a fan of him in Smash but he grew on me. King Boo is Luigi's nemesis and would make for a pretty great addition. We could always use more villains and we don't have a ghost fighter which would be pretty unique (and that's without considering his body shape and floating properties). Honestly though this want score is driven in no small part by my want for a Last Resort stage. That'd be awesome.

The most powerful entity in Mario canon

Chance: 0%
There is no chance Gooigi is a unique character. Beyond being weak to water and being able to cross grates and traverse pipes, Gooigi is just player 2 Luigi. No unique abilities of his own that would translate to Smash. I guess if they took some heavy creative liberties they could make him crazy unique but I don't see the point. If they want to rep LM3 King Boo is right there and so are Hellen, E. Gadd, the Polterpup, all of whom lend themselves more for a unique character. He could be an Echo but with Sakurai's repeated "this is it" comments I think even that is too much to expect.

Want: 100%
Like I said there is no chance he is unique which means I have no qualms about wanting him as an Echo. Or an alt, I usually dislike alts but he'd work pretty great as one. I thoroughly enjoyed LM3 and Gooigi was a big part of it. The puzzles he makes possible and the moments of deadpan humor he provides are unforgettable. So sure, he can be in, I'm down.

Noms: Giygas
Rayman prediction: 8.9%
Sol prediction: 11.34%
Disgaea prediction: the same it got last time

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Ayumi Tachibana/Officer Howard/Ring Fit Trainee pre-Concept: Zelda newcomer/King Boo/Gooigi

[Rerate] Louie x490
Octoling x438
Mii Costume: 2B x435
Pyramid Head x435
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x325
Junpei (Zero Escape) x321
Meat Boy x305
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x305

300 - 251

Corvo Attano x295
Tetra x260
Senator Armstrong x260

250 - 201

Ori x240
Gunvolt x225
Ratchet & Clank x215

200 - 151

Stage: Bowser's Castle x192
Boss: Rayquaza x190
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x170
Giygas x170
[Rerate] Kiryu x165

150 - 101

Echo (Bowser) x148
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Boss: Ender Dragon x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Stage: Tetris x120
D.Va x115
Fulgore x112
[Rerate] Gene x110
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

Soma Cruz x94
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x90
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
[Rerate] Eggman x74
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
[Rerate] Sora x46
Off The Hook x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Lugia x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
DJ Octavio x10
Mii Costume: Among Us x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Arcueid Brunestud (Tsukihime) x5
Firebrand x1

Danganronpa protagonist joins the top seven, tied with Meat Boy for last place.

Ratchet & Clank shoot their way past 200 noms.

Bandana Dee and Giygas stroll past 150 noms.

 

[Laniv]

Please Hylia let us get someone I'll take anyone at this point

Chance: 12%

There's plenty of characters to pull from, but the main issue seems to be that Sakurai seems hesitant to pull from anyone that isn't a Triforce wielder. Our best chance is in BOTW2 Zelda, but considering she doesn't appear to be playable in that game, it's not looking too good. We could've had Impa from AoC, but that got spirited.

Want: 97%

I said I'll take anyone... except maybe Tingle. As much as I'm averse to Yet Another Triforce Wielder, recently I've been slowly convinced that Pig Ganon ought to be a fighter. I wouldn't say no to someone like Vaati or Skull Kid either.



The Spooky Sovereign of Screams

Chance: 25%

This is a fairly generous rating, so let me explain. We know that spirits aren't the end of the line for characters, and that Luigi's Mansion 3 has avoided get a spirit event for a year and a half now. A similar situation occurred with Fire Emblem: Three Houses, and we know how that turned out. Some people might say that Sakurai and the devs simply thought that Luigi's Final Smash and the handful of LM spirits in the game were good enough. That's a fair assumption to make, but it is rather odd that Luigi's new Final Smash (G-00) is not a spirit, but his old one (5000) is. Furthermore, not only have other Nintendo games (save for a couple) gotten spirit events within months of release, but so have other Mario games, namely Origami King and Bowser's Fury. Both these games getting spirit events soon, yet Luigi's Mansion 3 not getting anything makes it stand out even more.

This might be a bold claim, but I believe King Boo may be the most likely Mario character for DLC.

Want: 100%

Oh, you bet I do. After Toad and Captain Toad, he's my most wanted Mario character, and my fourth or fifth most wanted overall. The guy's done plenty of stuff that can easily translate into a Smash Bros moveset, from levitation, invisibility, control of Boo minions, and a perfect Final Smash in portrification.



Ooze That Tastes Like Coffee

Chance: 1%

This is on the off chance they decide to make him a unique fighter, plus he's technically in a similar situation to King Boo. Other than that, I really don't see a way he gets in without being an echo. His inability to throw fireballs may be a hurdle, but they've taken liberties like that before.

Want: 50%

I'll admit, the little guy's growing on me. I'll take him if he's an echo, but I'd love to see what they do with him as a unique fighter. He even comes with his own color swaps in the Scarescraper mode.



Rayman prediction: 28% Chance, 72% Want
Sol Badguy prediction: 21% Chance, 53% Want
Disgaea prediction: 24% Chance, 42% Want

Nominate Giygas x 5

 

[subterrestrial]

Zelda Rep: 20% chance
BOTW2 is gonna be a really big deal in the future, not well versed in zelda but I wouldnt be surprised if they threw in a character for early promo. Although they might save them for the next smash game.

King Boo: 0% chance
Another huge 1st party AAA release, yet its the only one that didn't get spirit event? He's definitely not the next dlc character and he's definitely not getting revealed around halloween later this year...

Gooigi: 10% chance
With Gooigi playing such a prominent role in Luigi's Mansion 3 and its worldwide success, the possibility of him joining smash actually seems very feasible. He could be a paid skin, a semi echo, or even a completely unique character. Being made of goo, his weight and physics would vary drastically from Luigi and his moveset could be entirely based around LM3. Wouldn't count him out tbh.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain today, too tired from Lifeguarding class to do much of a write-up. Zelda rep's the likeliest pick of the bunch, though I have to say I'm way less certain about it given we still have no release or even a TITLE for BoTW2. There's also the small possibility of Ghirahim or Fi given our Skyward Sword remake (which was possibly planned when the DLC was), but it's still iffy, and Ghirahim is still an assist trophy. Luigi's Mansion 3 was a big success but unless Nintendo reserved a wildcard slot for itself at the end (an argument I sometimes make with Louie), Luigi's Mansion 3's time may have come and gone promotion-wise. Even then, Luigi's Mansion has ample representation in game already, including Luigi's new Final Smash, so Sakurai may see it as "enough" (though you could easily work in the Hotel from 3, or Dark Moon's various mansions, since most of LM's representation is generalistic or specifically the first game). Gooigi, has all of the same circumstances as King Boo, but even then, would Nintendo really sell an echo that's this close to the original?


Nominations:
DJ Octavio xAll

Predictions:
Rayman - 10.13%
Sol Badguy - 29.21%
Disgaea - 21.52%

 

[2006ToyotaTacoma]

They'll get a new rep eventually right? RIGHT!?

Chance: 2% The term "Zelda rep" is pretty ambigous so I'm just gonna rate the chance of what I believe is the most likely Zelda pick: an BOTW rep. The question remains who, considering BOTW's already repped (Link and Impa (Spirit)) or isn't happening via Sakurai's accord (BOTW Zelda). Not to mention that BOTW2 is still a while away and doesn't even have a title yet, so at this point it'd be to far to be an ad pick imo.

Want: 80% Skull Kid and Midna are two LoZ characters I'd love to see whenever, and LoZ definitely needs some fighter representation outside of another triforce wielder.

The King of Fatal Vacuum Cleaner Accidents

Chance: 10% Ok I get it, Luigi's Mansion 3 didn't get a spirit event. That doesn't guarantee that they're gonna get another fighter though. LM3's time has come and gone at this point so I definitely am not expecting any promotion from said game in the form of a fighter pack.

Want: 75% I've definitely warmed up to the possibility of King Boo in Smash and I'd be down to see him join. He's got a great personality, great moveset potential, and is probably my overall most wanted Mario pick.

Luigi: Lolsquid edition

Spoiler: Real ones get this reference

It's from Spongebob

Chance: 0% We're not getting an echo fighter. Gooigi would be an echo fighter. He just ain't.

Want: 50% As an echo tho? He works. Nothing truly against or for him in terms of want.

Predictions:
Rayman: 7%
Sol Badguy: 1%
Disgaea Rep: Abstain

 

[GoodGrief741]

Calcs

Demi-Fiend
16.50% Chance - 61.25% Want
The winner of predictions was Ridrool64 with 18.37%

Nahobino
16.63% Chance - 60.00% Want
The winner of predictions was again Ridrool64 this time with an almost exact 16.64%. So close! You win 10 extra noms for this.

Saber
4.61% Chance - 23.63% Want
The last time we rated her (soon after E3 2019) she got 8.03% chance and 19.35% want.
The winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire by virtue of having the lowest prediction, with 5.02%

Euden
12.82% Chance - 38.64% Want
The winner of predictions was Lyncario with 12.40%

Gran/Djeeta
8.00% Chance - 13.33% Want
Gran & Djeeta had a single outlying chance rating of 40% (twice the second highest) without which their score would be 4.00%
No extra noms because there weren't enough predictions for the pair.

Ayumi Tachibana
14.87% Chance - 51.73% Want
Last time we rated her she got 5.14% chance and 69.55% want. This was about a year ago. What changed? Well, a franchise making a comeback will do that for chance. The drop in want is curious though, I guess when you're no longer the underdog some people will stop rooting for you.
The winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 15.02%
It probably won't come as a surprise, but Ayumi's ratings are evenly split between the camp that thinks the FDC remakes were always planned for localization (25-35%) and the ones that think it was a later development (0-5%). If that were to be clarified in an interview it would have major implications for her perceived likelihood. We'll see if a similar split occurs for Andy, who might be in the same position.

Officer Howard
4.08% Chance - 65.53% Want
Last time we rated them they got 51.47% chance and 65.79% want. This was, obviously, before that fateful Spirit Event. Ah, how young and naive we were back then...
The winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with a near-exact 4.12%. You win 10 extra noms!

Ring Fit Trainee
6.92% Chance - 67.08% Want
The winners of predictions were BowserKing and Sari with a precise 10.00%
Howard and the Trainee both had outstanding chance ratings of 40%. Take them out of the equation and they land 1.08% and 3.91% respectively.

It's safe to say that, given today's want scores, you guys definitely wouldn't mind a promotional pick for FP11. Nintendo's in an unenviable position, let's hope they don't **** up anyways.

Spoiler: Check here to see how many extra noms you have

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
BowserKing 10
Dan Quixote 10
DaUsername 212
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 10
Inue Houji 74
Lyncario 5
Mr. MR 75
NintenRob 5
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 25
Sari 5
SKX31 55
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 20
Wunderwaft 5

 

[Lyncario]

The first parties from already represented series

Literaly anyone from Zelda, it's been 20 years since we got someone fully unique from that universe

Chance: 0.5%

While I was pretty optimistic about it earlier in the pass (read: when we only had 1 character of the pass revealed), I am not this way anymore. Why? Well, let's take a look. First of all, for characters from older Zeldas, there's Skull Kid and Midna, who are very popular, but also assist trophies, which I believe disconfirm characters for the dlc of Ultimate until proof of the reverse is given. So yeah, this kills their chances in my opinion, especialy since while they're popular, BotW characters are also popular, and more relevant. Then there's other popular Zelda characters who are not AT but also still not relevant, like Vaati, and with how he hasn't shown up in a very long while, yeah I don't think he has a chance. Then we get to Girahim, who while he got the AT treatment too, he is also more relevant thanks to Skyward Sword HD that Nintendo probably knew they had it in reserve since 2019 since they more than probably plan big anniversaries like that in advance, but then again, AT treatment. Fi tho, has relevance and is not an AT too, so that's better than the previously mentioned characters, though I also don't believe that Nintendo would put her in Smash because of SSHD. Now I get to the characters that are actualy disscussed, the champions and BotW2 Zelda, mainly from a shill standpoint, and I don't believe that they're going to happen. For the shill side, I kinda want to ask. Do you really think that Nintendo wants to use Smash to shill the sequel to Breath of the Wild, the sequel of the game that shook the entire gaming scene and reimagined open-world games? A game that has sold over 22 millions copies, that carried the switch by itself early on, that propulsed Zelda to the a level far close to Mario and Pokemon in term of mainstream popularity, that gained just about every single awards, and is the one game that the intenret agreed is "worthy" to be considered better than OOT? I will say no, being BotW's sequel is already enough shill from most point of views. in my own personnal belief And while Nintendo could want one of their biggest recent sucess to have more representation in Smash, the fact that Link is his BotW self tells me otherwise. The idea of the last character being a shill pick just doesn't fit one of their biggest seires, may it be Zelda or Pokemon. I still see a faint possibility of it being BotW2 Zelda, but with the game not being out until 2022, I don't see it. Also, no, we're not going ot get 4 totaly unique characters at once, so I think it's pretty safe to rule the champions out. And no, it wouldn't be like Pyra and Mythra, since they share all their normals save for atributes and properties changes.

Want: 100%

Zelda is one of my favorite gaming series of all time, in the top 5 alongside Touhou, SMT, KH, and DMC, so of course I would love it if I got to see one of my favorite characters from my favorite series get in the game. My most wanted Zelda character is Midna, mainly because I love TP and how much development she gets in the game, but I would also love it if we got Skull Kid, Girahim, Fi, Demise, Vaati, Ganon, BotW Zelda, or the champions.

Gooigi

Chance: 0%

No.

Want:-ok fine, I'll explain why.

Gooigi would be an echo if anything, considering that he's literaly a clone of Luigi made out of goo. And considering that we got no echo so far, that the dlc is pretty obviously suposed to be unique characters, and that Sakurai confirmed that this fighter pass is the end and so that we will not get anything other than probably a final balance patch, so no fighter pass 3 and more notably no echo pass, Gooigi is not hapening. And I really don't see ho he could happen. For the next game, sure, I could see him happen if he's still a thing, especialy if Luigi's Mansion becomes big enough so that they differentiate it from the Mario series, but for Ultimate I just don't see it, and I also don't see how.

Want: Abstain

Gooigi would be fine as an echo and that's about it in my opinion. He's just a clone of Luigi made of goo, and he does not have any special characteristics to him, other than he would bring content from Luigi's Mansion 3, but even then I just don't see enough of a reason for him other than Luigi echo because Luigi needs an echo. Even for the base game of the next Smash I just don't see the appeal, even if I'm just super neutral rather than negative about him. Oh well.

King Boo

Chance: 1%

He's the big bad of Luigi's very own series, Luigi's Mansion, and it got a recent game on Switch in 2019, meaning that the timing fits very well, and Luigi's Mansion has yet to get a spirit event, like 3 Houses in the first fighter pass, so that must be good. Problem with the spirit event argument, Luigi is already in the game, while King Boo and Polterpup already have spirits, so really only Hellen Gravely and Gooigi would get spirits, but all spirits events we got so far were of 4 spirits, not 2, as far as I know, so maybe the Smash team just found it redundant. Other than that, I also don't really see why King Boo would be added in Smash, though if Luigi's Mansion becomes it's own series separated from Mario in the next Smash in the same way that Yoshi and Wario are, then I can totaly see King Boo and Gooigi happen.

Want; 65%

Yeah, sure. While he's not my favorite vilain, I still like Luigi's Mansion as a series a lot, so it would be nice to have the big bad of the series join Smash, even if I'm mostly mid about him. More Luigi Mansion content in Smash would be nice, and he could have a very fun moveset too.

Nominations

Rerate Kiryu x all I got

Predictions

Rayman: 6.1%

Sol Badguy: 11.4%

Disgaea: 5.6%

 

[Oracle Link]

Zelda Rep:
Chance: 2%
Want: 99.9%
Theyre a bit more likely because of the Broad term!
Im obvisouly a big fan of Zelda so who would i want! Difficult!
Of course theres impa but honestly she has 0 Material to work with outside of one Skyward sword Cutscene so ill think she should be a Shiek echo!
Then theres Link from the Gameboy Titles He could be nice... If there werent already 3 Links in the game!
Midna her Problem is Wolf Link!
Skullkid and ghirahzim are ats!
And Vaatis only usable Design is from a Capcom Zelda meaning it wouldnt make it into Smash!
I guess an Octorock would be most likely by This Point!
But still i would Love any Zelda Rep... Outside Of Linkle or if it happens a Zelda from a Game where link isnt The main playable character!

King boo:
Chance: 1%
Want: 20%
Hes a nice Character For sure but we already have so many Mario Chars but hes definitly nicer than Mister Sports games Waluigi and Mister i am supported by people who didnt play my Game! So yeah i take him over an Gen 8 Pokemon or Another Fire mblem Char but thats it!

Gooigi:
Chance: 0.1% (full Fighter)
Want: ?%
I didnt play or watch any game hes in so ill pass!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have enough time to rate any of these.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5

 

[MasterCheef]

Legend of Zelda BOTW Sequel Rep:
Chance: 95%

I am 100% confident there will be more fighters after fighters pass 2. I think Nintendo told Sakurai to deny more fighters after fighters pass 2 to make fighters pass 2 sell better. not to mention Sakurai himself would be under an NDA and would want to make every character's reveal as exciting as possible.

Paya from Legend of Zelda; BOTW sequel
1 It is exceedingly suspicious we have not gotten a new ( Age of Calamity ) Amiibo for Impa
2 Xander Mobus Announcer for SSBU specifically said in the list of names he read off, was a bunch of fruit.
2.1 please post link for above if you can find it
3 In SSBU it is highly unlikely Nintendo will skip ( hyping / marketing ) with a playable fighter, their biggest release of 2022.
4 Paya reveal likely February 2022 release March like Pyra / Mythra reveal Feb 2021 & release March same as BOTW sequel


Want: 99.9% If we were to get a rep somewhat like a very famous orange jump-suited ninja i would be extremely delighted.


Others abstain
Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Legend of Zelda BOTW Sequel Rep:
Chance: 95%

I am 100% confident there will be more fighters after fighters pass 2. I think Nintendo told Sakurai to deny more fighters after fighters pass 2 to make fighters pass 2 sell better. not to mention Sakurai himself would be under an NDA and would want to make every character's reveal as exciting as possible.

Paya from Legend of Zelda; BOTW sequel
1 It is exceedingly suspicious we have not gotten a new ( Age of Calamity ) Amiibo for Impa
2 Xander Mobus Announcer for SSBU specifically said in the list of names he read off, was a bunch of fruit.
2.1 please post link for above if you can find it
3 In SSBU it is highly unlikely Nintendo will skip ( hyping / marketing ) with a playable fighter, their biggest release of 2022.
4 Paya reveal likely February 2022 release March like Pyra / Mythra reveal Feb 2021 & release March same as BOTW sequel


Want: 99.9% If we were to get a rep somewhat like a very famous orange jump-suited ninja i would be extremely delighted.


Others abstain
Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5

1. We are rating a new Zelda character in general, not just from BOTW 2.
2. How are you 100% confident that there will be more after fighters pass 2 when Sakurai has stated to death that there is going to be nothing after this pass? Can you provide some evidence?
3. What does Xander Mobus' list have to do with anything?
4. They might skip BOTW 2 because the game doesn't even have a specific release date. Granted it's a first party game and release dates are a grey area because of Covid but the game is still early in development so it would be very difficult to introduce a character from it. Plus Nintendo is holding off on saying the title which implies there might be a notable new character introduced but since it's not been revealed yet it puts Nintendo in an awkward situation where they might spoil the character before they get properly introduced and I can't see that happening.
5. Sakurai said that the next fighter will be released by the end of this year as planned.
6. And also, a 95% chance? You will need more evidence to back that up because you are basically saying that Paya or whatever is a borderline lock.

 

[MasterCheef]

1. We are rating a new Zelda character in general, not just from BOTW 2.
2. How are you 100% confident that there will be more after fighters pass 2 when Sakurai has stated to death that there is going to be nothing after this pass? Can you provide some evidence?
3. What does Xander Mobus' list have to do with anything?
4. They might skip BOTW 2 because the game doesn't even have a specific release date. Granted it's a first party game and release dates are a grey area because of Covid but the game is still early in development so it would be very difficult to introduce a character from it. Plus Nintendo is holding off on saying the title which implies there might be a notable new character introduced but since it's not been revealed yet it puts Nintendo in an awkward situation where they might spoil the character before they get properly introduced and I can't see that happening.
5. Sakurai said that the next fighter will be released by the end of this year as planned.
6. And also, a 95% chance? You will need more evidence to back that up because you are basically saying that Paya or whatever is a borderline lock.

1 a new Legend of Zelda character in general would most likely be from BOTW and it's sequel.
2 there have been a number of exceedingly accurate leaks 4 in total which leads me to believe there is more than 1 character.
3 I cannot think of any other good reason Xander Mobus to read off a bunch of fruit than to have a character named after a fruit.
4 skip down to number 5
5 I believe the next fighter is from league of legends as the planned release for consoles is 10/2021 the same month as Steve last year.
6 read line 3 again.

 

[Sari]

3 I cannot think of any other good reason Xander Mobus to read off a bunch of fruit than to have a character named after a fruit.

Ok can I just ask: where did you hear that Xander Mobus read off a bunch of fruit names? I googled a ton of different "Xander Mobus/fruit" combinations and couldn't find anything.

The only thing I could find was when he talked about saying fake names for Smash 4. But again that was for Smash 4, which was released waaay before BotW and probably even before Paya's existence.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Perhaps you misinterpreted fake for fruit because that's the only scenario I can think of where you thought Xander said that.

 

[DanganZilla5]

1 a new Legend of Zelda character in general would most likely be from BOTW and it's sequel.
2 there have been a number of exceedingly accurate leaks 4 in total which leads me to believe there is more than 1 character.
3 I cannot think of any other good reason Xander Mobus to read off a bunch of fruit than to have a character named after a fruit.
4 skip down to number 5
5 I believe the next fighter is from league of legends as the planned release for consoles is 10/2021 the same month as Steve last year.
6 read line 3 again.

First, how reliable are these leaks? Because after Hero and Banjo there have been very few reliable leaks. What makes them credible? Because there have been plenty of leaks like the Concert Leak that have even guessed things correctly and yet were wrong in the end.

Second, when did Xander Mobus say that? You got a source? To my knowledge he only said that he received a list of fake names, but didn't elaborate.

 

[Sari]

Concept: Zelda Newcomer

Chance: 5%
This is pretty much the "BotW sequel shill rep or bust" percent. It's pretty clear at this point that Sakurai just doesn't care about the Zelda series enough to add a newcomer that isn't one of the three Triforce users. Because of this, I highly doubt we'll be getting a Zelda character from a pre-BotW game.

It's hard to see another BotW rep happening either since the game already has a lot of representation. The BotW stage is one of the few new stages in Ultimate, so I doubt Sakurai would double-dip and make one of the <20 new stages yet another BotW themed one. We also got a BotW themed costume as a bonus for FP2, Age of Calamity got a spirit event, and Ultimate's version of Link is even taken from BotW so in a weird way it's like we already have a character from it.

But wait, what about BotW 2? Well there is a chance Sakurai played a pre-release version like he did with Three Houses so it's always possible, especially since the game was revealed before FP2 was most likely decided on (and the title hasn't been revealed yet only for spoiler reasons). However, the BotW costume being a bonus for FP2 makes me think that they already made up their minds that the sequel won't be getting a rep.

If Sakurai actually did decide to shill for BotW 2, the main character I can see getting in is BotW Zelda if she actually plays a major active role in the game. However with her seemingly being the damsel in distress yet again, I'm not counting on her happening. The Champions are an honorable mention though I don't see them playing a big role in the news games (for obvious reasons) nor do I see us getting a rep from just the first BotW game.

Want: 90%
It's a crime how we haven't gotten a unique Zelda character since Melee which was released almost 20 years ago. At this point I don't even really care who it is just as long as it isn't an alternate version of Link or Ganondorf. Whether it be Skull Kid, Midna, the Champions, or even certain versions of Zelda like Tetra or Toon Zelda, I'd be down for basically any new Zelda character. They'd all be unique in their own right and would bring more representation to a series that desperately needs it.

-----

King Boo

Chance: 10%
The main thing (and pretty much, the only thing) supporting this is that we still haven't gotten a Luigi's Mansion 3 spirit event. I won't lie, even now I do find this super suspicious. Luigi's Mansion 3 was one of their main highlights for the end of 2019 and is one of the few major 1st party games released after Ultimate to not get a spirit event. The game was a big success (12th best-selling Switch game right now) so I feel like Nintendo would capitalize on it by releasing spirits at some point, which they haven't. Of course there is also Three Houses not getting a spirit event for a while and we all know how that turned out. With how many new characters there are in LM3 as well as the Pokemon Let's Go game bringing in new spirit versions of Pikachu and Eevee, I don't think the existing Luigi's Mansion spirits in Smash would hurt the chances of a LM3 spirit event.

As far as actual Luigi's Mansion reps go, King Boo is the clear frontrunner. He's the main baddie of the series and I really don't see E. Gadd or Gooigi getting in first.

Want: 0%
I think Luigi's Mansion is represented well enough as it is. King Boo just doesn't interest me and if we had to get more Mario universe characters than I'd much prefer someone like Waluigi, Toad, or Pauline. I wouldn't like King Boo getting into Smash in general, and would hate it even more if it was as the final character.

-----

Gooigi

Chance: 0%
He's pretty much an exact clone of Luigi. The only way I could ever see Gooigi getting into Smash is as an echo. I mean, I think he could work as an echo seeing as how he's a gooey carbon copy of Luigi and I doubt they'd waste a unique slot on him. Sadly, Smash for whatever reason stopped caring about echos. We haven't gotten any after the base game and I doubt the final character would be one. If they had to go for a unique Luigi's Mansion rep, they'd probably go for King Boo.

Want: 0%
As an echo? This would be kind of cute. As a full character as well as the final character in Ultimate? This would be awful. In general I wouldn't want the final character to be a clone of someone else. Not to mention there are a lot of other clone characters I'd want to see first.

And yes as you can tell, I had to stretch this rating as long as possible for the 10 sentence limit for extra noms.

-----

Chance predictions:

Rayman: 21.00% - Kazuya will most likely increase his score
Sol Badguy: 10.00% - Kazuya will most likely decrease his score
Disgaea rep: 8.50% - Kazuya will most likely have no effect on this score

-----

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x20
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x15

 

[MasterCheef]

Ok can I just ask: where did you hear that Xander Mobus read off a bunch of fruit names? I googled a ton of different "Xander Mobus/fruit" combinations and couldn't find anything.

First, how reliable are these leaks? Because after Hero and Banjo there have been very few reliable leaks. What makes them credible? Because there have been plenty of leaks like the Concert Leak that have even guessed things correctly and yet were wrong in the end.

Second, when did Xander Mobus say that? You got a source? To my knowledge he only said that he received a list of fake names, but didn't elaborate.

The leaks are for a Falcom Rep, Master Chief Halo, Ahri League of Legends, Matoi ( Phantasy star online 2 )

I am now fully convinced the original video interview where Xander Mobus did elaborate on his voice acting for the announcer of SSBU was taken off of Youtube via a request from Nintendo

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I am now fully convinced the original video interview where Xander Mobus did elaborate on his voice acting for the announcer of SSBU was taken off of Youtube via a request from Nintendo

Considering nobody seems to know what you're talking about, isn't it likely that you were simply mistaken? Cause like, I can claim my favourites were strongly considered by Sakurai and say "Hmm well I can't find the source so Nintendo must have deleted it to hide their tracks as my favourite is the next character"

 

[MasterCheef]

Considering nobody seems to know what you're talking about, isn't it likely that you were simply mistaken? Cause like, I can claim my favourites were strongly considered by Sakurai and say "Hmm well I can't find the source so Nintendo must have deleted it to hide their tracks as my favourite is the next character"

An interesting thought. however i have not actually played BOTW. Paya also does not get to see much screen time in BOTW. I literally have no idea how Paya might actually play. I am not making any claim about Sakurai being the main proponent for considering Paya. The main proponents for considering Paya would be Shigeru Miyamoto, Eiji Aonuma and Shuntaro Furukawa. Also Sakurai is basicaslly Nintendo's ( Yes Man ) because Sakurai promised Satoru Iwata he would finish SSBU. Lastly to me the most obvious reason is how much Nintendo Loves to shill in SSBU, looking at you ( Min-Min and Byleth ).

 

[fogbadge]

An interesting thought. however i have not actually played BOTW. Paya also does not get to see much screen time in BOTW. I literally have no idea how Paya might actually play. I am not making any claim about Sakurai being the main proponent for considering Paya. The main proponents for considering Paya would be Shigeru Miyamoto, Eiji Aonuma and Shuntaro Furukawa. Also Sakurai is basicaslly Nintendo's ( Yes Man ) because Sakurai promised Satoru Iwata he would finish SSBU. Lastly to me the most obvious reason is how much Nintendo Loves to shill in SSBU, looking at you ( Min-Min and Byleth ).

if sakurai was nintendo's "yes man" then why does he seem to have so much free reign even with nintendo picking the characters?

also ARMS is one of the switch’s best selling games

and did this leak tell you the order these characters were coming in? Cause it’s unclear

 

[MasterCheef]

if sakurai was nintendo's "yes man" then why does he seem to have so much free reign even with nintendo picking the characters?

also ARMS is one of the switch’s best selling games

What makes you say Sakurai seems to have so much free reign even with Nintendo picking the characters? How does Sakurai have free reign?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

if sakurai was nintendo's "yes man" then why does he seem to have so much free reign even with nintendo picking the characters?

He doesn't have "free reign" for the pass. He only chooses a character because Nintendo actually tells him this one is available.

What he's allowed to do is actually say whether or not the character is workable. He can deny one, but he can't actually choose anyone directly on his own.

His control is actually pretty small in that regard. "Yes Man" is inaccurate, though(but not for the reason you stated). It's not that simple.

-------------------------------

Zelda Newcomer:

Chance
5%
While it'd be nice, the latest game is too far off for a promotional value from it. However, it doesn't mean they can't have ones from games that released not that long ago, whether it's cause a game made the particular character popular(HW and Impa) or otherwise. It doesn't need to be the same design from the game, but moreso gives them a reason to consider a character. Ones like Tingle were always popular(albeit, less so in the West. HW helped fix up the West part).

Want
100%
The series is not bad by any means, by having some very important characters, but outside of Link alone, the rest were more specialized circumstances. Zelda was because of Sheik and vice versa, being a gimmick. Young Link and Ganondorf were clones. And Toon Link required Young Link's data, and would've otherwise been based clearly on regular Link(or possibly not make it in if the major model differences proved an issue. This might be the core reason why Toon Zelda and Toon Sheik never made it in). My current wants are Tingle(MM style), Impa(Oracle style), and Ganon(ALTTP style). The other ones admittedly don't interest me.

Abstain on King Boo. I know too little to give a rough idea of what to say.

Gooigi:

Chance
10%
I don't consider him Echo or nothing, because Luigi doesn't play like him in Smash. Echo is possible, but wouldn't be in Ultimate, however, he can play quite differently while being based upon the tons of abilities in the Luigi's Mansion series. This would fit just fine and still make him akin to a semi-clone(Wolf is a good example of being highly different), or more like how Ness borrowed barely from Mario while being super unique, his base model swap character. I don't consider him likely, but being Echoes are out, but not characters who use others as bases(Hero borrowed from Link after all) to make a different kind of clone? I still think he's possible. The lack of a Spirit Event keeps him possible for me.

Want
Abstain. Haven't played the game.

Predictions
Rayman: 50%
Sol Badguy: 34%
Disgaea Rep: 5%

Is Fulgore locked in? Otherwise, regular 5 Noms to him(or whatever the max is for this particular post. I didn't give much thought to each part, I admit).

 

[fogbadge]

What makes you say Sakurai seems to have so much free reign even with Nintendo picking the characters? How does Sakurai have free reign?

He doesn't have "free reign" for the pass. He only chooses a character because Nintendo actually tells him this one is available.

What he's allowed to do is actually say whether or not the character is workable. He can deny one, but he can't actually choose anyone directly on his own.

His control is actually pretty small in that regard. "Yes Man" is inaccurate, though(but not for the reason you stated). It's not that simple.

-------------------------------

Zelda Newcomer:

Chance
5%
While it'd be nice, the latest game is too far off for a promotional value from it. However, it doesn't mean they can't have ones from games that released not that long ago, whether it's cause a game made the particular character popular(HW and Impa) or otherwise. It doesn't need to be the same design from the game, but moreso gives them a reason to consider a character. Ones like Tingle were always popular(albeit, less so in the West. HW helped fix up the West part).

Want
100%
The series is not bad by any means, by having some very important characters, but outside of Link alone, the rest were more specialized circumstances. Zelda was because of Sheik and vice versa, being a gimmick. Young Link and Ganondorf were clones. And Toon Link required Young Link's data, and would've otherwise been based clearly on regular Link(or possibly not make it in if the major model differences proved an issue. This might be the core reason why Toon Zelda and Toon Sheik never made it in). My current wants are Tingle(MM style), Impa(Oracle style), and Ganon(ALTTP style). The other ones admittedly don't interest me.

Abstain on King Boo. I know too little to give a rough idea of what to say.

Gooigi:

Chance
10%
I don't consider him Echo or nothing, because Luigi doesn't play like him in Smash. Echo is possible, but wouldn't be in Ultimate, however, he can play quite differently while being based upon the tons of abilities in the Luigi's Mansion series. This would fit just fine and still make him akin to a semi-clone(Wolf is a good example of being highly different), or more like how Ness borrowed barely from Mario while being super unique, his base model swap character. I don't consider him likely, but being Echoes are out, but not characters who use others as bases(Hero borrowed from Link after all) to make a different kind of clone? I still think he's possible. The lack of a Spirit Event keeps him possible for me.

Want
Abstain. Haven't played the game.

Predictions
Rayman: 50%
Sol Badguy: 34%
Disgaea Rep: 5%

Is Fulgore locked in? Otherwise, regular 5 Noms to him(or whatever the max is for this particular post. I didn't give much thought to each part, I admit).

no I chose my words wrong I meant sakurai doesn’t have to do it

Oh it doesn’t matter.
Anyway mastercheef can you cite any source? And as the thread is operating under the assumption that number 11 is the last character perhaps you should explain why out of all the characters paya would be next

oh yeah I meant to ask how many days we got left on the fixed schedule

 

[MasterCheef]

Anyway mastercheef can you cite any source? And as the thread is operating under the assumption that number 11 is the last character perhaps you should explain why out of all the characters paya would be next

I don't think Paya will be next. I think Ahri will.

my original post https://smashboards.com/threads/dlc-speculation-discussion-volume-ii.509845/page-1866#post-24472054

leaks are as follows

Ahri from League of Legends leaked on 01/30/2020 https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/494471663/#q494471663

Master Chief ( Halo ) via 343 Industries & Microsoft

Matoi via Sega w/ PSO2 Leaked on 01/23/2021 https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/541591126/#q541596708

Lloyd Bannings? via Falcom & NIS Leaked on 06/20/2020 https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/513418360/

leaks are in original post for Master Chief

He doesn't have "free reign" for the pass. He only chooses a character because Nintendo actually tells him this one is available.
What he's allowed to do is actually say whether or not the character is workable. He can deny one, but he can't actually choose anyone directly on his own.
His control is actually pretty small in that regard. "Yes Man" is inaccurate, though(but not for the reason you stated). It's not that simple.

To be clear; Masahiro Sakurai always gets "first right of Refusal" the game is what he made. Second Nintendo picks the character then asks Masahiro Sakurai if the character is reasonably achievable in SSBU. Third my reference to him being a Yes Man is more to do with the fact Sakurai is going to push himself to complete SSBU because of his promise to Satoru Iwata. I believe completion involves a Fighters Pass 3 / more fighters after Fighters Pass 2

 

[DanganZilla5]

I don't think Paya will be next. I think Ahri will.

my original post https://smashboards.com/threads/dlc-speculation-discussion-volume-ii.509845/page-1866#post-24472054

leaks are as follows

Ahri from League of Legends leaked on 01/30/2020 https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/494471663/#q494471663

Master Chief ( Halo ) via 343 Industries & Microsoft

Matoi via Sega w/ PSO2 Leaked on 01/23/2021 https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/541591126/#q541596708

Lloyd Bannings? via Falcom & NIS Leaked on 06/20/2020 https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/513418360/

leaks are in original post for Master Chief



To be clear; Masahiro Sakurai always gets "first right of Refusal" the game is what he made. Second Nintendo picks the character then asks Masahiro Sakurai if the character is reasonably achievable in SSBU. Third my reference to him being a Yes Man is more to do with the fact Sakurai is going to push himself to complete SSBU because of his promise to Satoru Iwata. I believe completion involves a Fighters Pass 3 / more fighters after Fighters Pass 2

Just because those leaks got some things right doesn't mean that everything in them has to happen. You are reaching more than the ARMS cast.

 

[MasterCheef]

Just because those leaks got some things right doesn't mean that everything in them has to happen. You are reaching more than the ARMS cast.

i honestly don't believe the leaks are necessary. The companies' relationships with Nintendo speak highly enough to convince me.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

To be clear; Masahiro Sakurai always gets "first right of Refusal" the game is what he made. Second Nintendo picks the character then asks Masahiro Sakurai if the character is reasonably achievable in SSBU. Third my reference to him being a Yes Man is more to do with the fact Sakurai is going to push himself to complete SSBU because of his promise to Satoru Iwata. I believe completion involves a Fighters Pass 3 / more fighters after Fighters Pass 2

It's the other way around for DLC here. Nintendo selects a character among their own personal secret list(Sakurai does not get some first pick thing) and suggest it to Sakurai. Then he discusses the idea with them and can deny the character.

There's also zero fighters after CP11. That's a hard stated fact at this point. Sakurai made that beyond clear. There is data that suggests they could do so, but he can't simply lie like that(he has to say the truth about it being ended. That's part of the fact he doesn't own the franchise. He can make jokes, but that's it. Like ZSS' joke cut during Smash 4, which he took back within the same minute for fun. When he says it's last, and keeps saying it's last, it's only because he's forced to speak the truth). He was vague during Pass 1 because he didn't know it was over(and there was 1 or 2 bonus characters planned at best. Who, we don't know yet. He never specified). Here, it's 100% "Nobody else is coming". The best we could get is an Echo that is downloadable with the Fighter, as part of the same Challenger Pack. This isn't different from how Pyra and Mythra are separated characters. A Pack can come with two playable characters, after all.

Sakurai fully chose every character on his own for Base Game, along with 1 DLC, being Piranha Plant. It looks like he would be free to choose any Bonus DLC characters, but we know for a fact they aren't happening either way, so it doesn't matter at that point.

You should let this narrative go. It goes against hard facts.

Sakurai has a lot less control over Smash than you think. He's given a lot of reign(base game) because Nintendo trusts him. But they can deny anything they want as well as other third party companies. It's not a coincidence some 3rd party characters' costumes are absolute crud. Cloud is one of the worst, with Pac-Man not far behind. Even Ganondorf's colors are pretty bad. Not to mention Pokemon gets shafted. Some are only allowed a simple hat because any color changes messes with their iconic designs(Smash 64 is notable about that). And so on. The only time you'll see actual free reign is for fangames(if it involves an IP you don't own every part of), if the IP owner doesn't sue them/force a cease and desist, anyway.

 

[DanganZilla5]

i honestly don't believe the leaks are necessary. The companies' relationships with Nintendo speak highly enough to convince me.

I mean look at Level 5 as an example. They have a very close relationship with Nintendo for many years and yet they have zero content in Smash so I don't think you can rely on corporate synergy alone to say that these characters are as likely as you are assuming.

 

[DanganZilla5]

oops accidentally double posted

 

[MasterCheef]

It's the other way around for DLC here. Nintendo selects a character among their own personal secret list(Sakurai does not get some first pick thing) and suggest it to Sakurai. Then he discusses the idea with them and can deny the character.

Sakurai fully chose every character on his own for Base Game, along with 1 DLC, being Piranha Plant. It looks like he would be free to choose any Bonus DLC characters, but we know for a fact they aren't happening either way, so it doesn't matter at that point.

You should let this narrative go. It goes against hard facts.

1st Again My saying Sakurai always has first right of refusal, has nothing to do who picks the character first or who denies the character first. My point is after a character is brought to the bargaining table it has to get Sakurai's approval.

2nd trust me i fully understand how there is usually very little room to maneuver within certain characters to maintain their specific traits.

3rd I am actually not talking about base game so please don't make assumptions about what i know about subjects i have not brought up.

4rth Sakurai saying there are no more fighters after Fighters Pass 2 means NOTHING. Sakurai is not the one in the decision seat when it comes to it. Total SSBU DLC playable fighters decision comes directly from Shuntaro Furukawa. Sakurai would have an NDA if there were more fighters and he might even have one even if they had not. only Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa can rule out more fighters after Fighters Pass 2.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

1st Again My saying Sakurai always has first right of refusal, has nothing to do who picks the character first or who denies the character first. My point is after a character is brought to the bargaining table it has to get Sakurai's approval.

The way you ordered the points made it hard to understand. You should've said that Nintendo suggests a character, and then Sakurai gets first "possible refusal". People can easily misread it because the order is awkward.

2nd trust me i fully understand how there is usually very little room to maneuver within certain characters to maintain their specific traits.

Simply put; he doesn't have much control. But he isn't some yes man. The point was that both you and Fogbadge basically said it incorrectly at the time(Fogbadge meant something else, though, and corrected what they meant).

3rd I am actually not talking about base game so please don't make assumptions about what i know about subjects i have not brought up.

That's due to how you weirdly said it, so I misunderstood your argument. You can ignore that bit.

4rth Sakurai saying there are no more fighters after Fighters Pass 2 means NOTHING. Sakurai is not the one in the decision seat when it comes to it. Total SSBU DLC playable fighters decision comes directly from Shuntaro Furukawa. Sakurai would have an NDA if there were more fighters and he might even have one even if they had not. only Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa can rule out more fighters after Fighters Pass 2.

He cannot directly state stuff like that unless he is allowed to. He is under a lot of oaths as a game developer. He is under NDA to be completely honest. That's how they work. He would never have stated this is the last unless it was true. It would be "we have no more planned", which is accurate, but different in context.

There is CP11 for Ultimate. No ifs, ands, or buts. That's the final character(s). Transformations, an Echo as part of it, or otherwise. It sucks, but that's literally what it is. He's said this over 6 times. And being he cannot lie about that, and is saying a different statement from Pass 1, no amount of bull**** leaks will fix that. They're a load of crap that contradicts the facts. It's... over after this one. We aren't even getting new modes, suckily so.

 

[MasterCheef]

The way you ordered the points made it hard to understand. You should've said that Nintendo suggests a character, and then Sakurai gets first "possible refusal". People can easily misread it because the order is awkward.


Simply put; he doesn't have much control. But he isn't some yes man. The point was that both you and Fogbadge basically said it incorrectly at the time(Fogbadge meant something else, though, and corrected what they meant).


That's due to how you weirdly said it, so I misunderstood your argument. You can ignore that bit.


He cannot directly state stuff like that unless he is allowed to. He is under a lot of oaths as a game developer. He is under NDA to be completely honest. That's how they work. He would never have stated this is the last unless it was true. It would be "we have no more planned", which is accurate, but different in context.

There is CP11 for Ultimate. No ifs, ands, or buts. That's the final character(s). Transformations, an Echo as part of it, or otherwise. It sucks, but that's literally what it is. He's said this over 6 times. And being he cannot lie about that, and is saying a different statement from Pass 1, no amount of bull**** leaks will fix that. They're a load of crap that contradicts the facts. It's... over after this one. We aren't even getting new modes, suckily so.

1 I am mostly making a reference to Sakurai being a Yes Man in the DLC stage not base game.
Sakurai is a Yes Man in terms; 1.1 of how many DLC characters 1.2 as long as a character can be reasonably implemented he says yes.
1.3 proof of Sakurai being a Yers are ( Min-Min & Byleth ) MinMin being Hated in Japan
https://www.eventhubs.com/news/2021/jan/19/min-most-hated-ssbu-offline/

The no more after Fighters pass 2 is just marketing propaganda. Since so many take Sakurai at his word most everyone just believes it.
Again I will not believe any ruling out related to any total number of additional SSBU DLC fighters or unless it comes directly from SSBU Executive producer and Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

1 I am mostly making a reference to Sakurai being a Yes Man in the DLC stage not base game.
Sakurai is a Yes Man in terms; 1.1 of how many DLC characters 1.2 as long as a character can be reasonably implemented he says yes.
1.3 proof of Sakurai being a Yers are ( Min-Min & Byleth ) MinMin being Hated in Japan
https://www.eventhubs.com/news/2021/jan/19/min-most-hated-ssbu-offline/

The no more after Fighters pass 2 is just marketing propaganda. Since so many take Sakurai at his word most everyone just believes it.
Again I will not believe any ruling out related to any total number of additional SSBU DLC fighters or unless it comes directly from SSBU Executive producer and Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa.

He can't make that kind of marketing propaganda. At all. He can't lie like that without getting in trouble.

He's saying it's "it" because it's "it". No more, no less. Him saying "we have no more planned" is a lot more accurate to what you would be looking for if the possibility existed.

Also, Japan does not hate Min Min. You very much mistake what they meant. She's hated in competitive play due to balance issues, but is a massively popular character, which is like why Yabuki asked Nintendo for her.

Byleth is not an unpopular character on their own merit. They're actually fairly well-liked. The problem was being yet another FE character and the final known DLC at the time(which we found out the possibility of 1 or 2 more would've happened, but beforehand, we had 6 total DLC period). The context was the issue, not the character themselves. Even Chrom got ridiculous hate despite being an Echo, just cause lol more Fire Emblem. The series gets a lot of unreasonable hate simply cause it got a fair amount of content in 4. That left a sour taste in many people's mouths, especially with other series getting no new characters as is(DK took till freaking Ultimate to get more than 2 characters). That's just life.

Sakurai is being essentially ordered to make a certain amount of characters. Bonus aside(at best, which he seems to have more control over). He didn't even choose to do DLC. Nintendo commanded it. He's not a Yes Man. He's just a guy who doesn't control how the game works entirely because he doesn't have the power to. He is just a respectable developer for Smash, and Nintendo gives him a lot of leeway out of respect for what awesome work he did. Basically, he either makes the DLC or he doesn't have a job during the DLC period. He didn't have a choice here. A Yes Man is someone who easily succumbs to their bosses ideas. But that's blatantly not the case. He actually wanted to work on the DLC itself, and is quite happy providing players with tons of stuff. He has quite a bit of control over DLC, being he can deny any character he wants, but he's professional enough that he doesn't let personal bias affect that. Sakurai, you know, has legitimate reasons(impossible to do gameplay, for instance).

 

[MasterCheef]

He can't make that kind of marketing propaganda. At all. He can't lie like that without getting in trouble.

He's saying it's "it" because it's "it". No more, no less. Him saying "we have no more planned" is a lot more accurate to what you would be looking for if the possibility existed.

Also, Japan does not hate Min Min. You very much mistake what they meant. She's hated in competitive play due to balance issues, but is a massively popular character, which is like why Yabuki asked Nintendo for her.

Byleth is not an unpopular character on their own merit. They're actually fairly well-liked. The problem was being yet another FE character and the final known DLC at the time(which we found out the possibility of 1 or 2 more would've happened, but beforehand, we had 6 total DLC period). The context was the issue, not the character themselves. Even Chrom got ridiculous hate despite being an Echo, just cause lol more Fire Emblem. The series gets a lot of unreasonable hate simply cause it got a fair amount of content in 4. That left a sour taste in many people's mouths, especially with other series getting no new characters as is ( DK took till freaking Ultimate to get more than 2 characters). That's just life.

Sakurai is being essentially ordered to make a certain amount of characters. Bonus aside(at best, which he seems to have more control over). He didn't even choose to do DLC. Nintendo commanded it. He's not a Yes Man. He's just a guy who doesn't control how the game works entirely because he doesn't have the power to. He is just a respectable developer for Smash, and Nintendo gives him a lot of leeway out of respect for what awesome work he did. Basically, he either makes the DLC or he doesn't have a job during the DLC period. He didn't have a choice here. A Yes Man is someone who easily succumbs to their bosses ideas. But that's blatantly not the case. He actually wanted to work on the DLC itself, and is quite happy providing players with tons of stuff. He has quite a bit of control over DLC, being he can deny any character he wants, but he's professional enough that he doesn't let personal bias affect that. Sakurai, you know, has legitimate reasons(impossible to do gameplay, for instance).

well you are making me quite curious.

Sakurai can't lie like that without getting in trouble. Who would he get in trouble with and why?

Byleth is not an unpopular character on their own merit. They're actually fairly well-liked. How do you know this?

Min Min is a massively popular character. How do you know this?

He didn't even choose to do DLC. Nintendo commanded it. This sentence literally proves my point.

Sakurai can deny any character he wants, but he's professional enough that he doesn't let personal bias affect that. Also proving my point. Why agree with bad Nintendo shill picks when he could have rejected them?
The reason i think Byleth and Min-Min are bad picks is how anti-fun they are to play.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

well you are making me quite curious.

Byleth is not an unpopular character on their own merit. They're actually fairly well-liked. How do you know this?

You mean because the trailer has still a significant amount of likes? Tons of actual positive talk across the internet? An extremely high-selling game? The hatred is pretty clearly from the FE overload context.

Min Min is a massively popular character. How do you know this?

A winner of the worldwide fanpoll, which is the only real ARMS Tournament type to happen, a massive popularity poll. This may be even why Yabuki requested her. Nintendo would've went for the default Spring Man otherwise, since that's the mascot.

He didn't even choose to do DLC. Nintendo commanded it. This sentence literally proves my point.

...Are you going to risk your job? No. Because that's dumb. Smash like tons of games are popular with DLC. He doesn't prefer it entirely, but he knows it's still a good thing for others and with the game requiring DLC to even finish stuff that was impossible for base game, he wasn't going to deny the idea. You have no idea what a Yes Man is at this point. Because if Sakurai was one, he wouldn't be able to deny a single DLC character. He'd have to make every single one work the second they're suggested. He would have zero leeway. Just cause he doesn't have 100% control doesn't make him a Yes Man. Actually learn a bit more about businesses. It's not as simple as you're making it in any way.

Sakurai can deny any character he wants, but he's professional enough that he doesn't let personal bias affect that. Also proving my point. Why agree with bad Nintendo shill picks when he could have rejected them?

It proves that he's not a lame developer who doesn't care about others? Cause he agrees to these due to them being potentially interesting. Fire Emblem is a huge franchise that sells. I don't see any of them as bad nor does, get this, Sakurai. Do you know why he doesn't? Because they weren't boring characters. He didn't have to say yes to Byleth. He did anyway because he thought of a concept that represents FE well. He agreed to Min Min because she's a character that is popular worldwide. Not that odd.

You're letting your bias against these characters severely cloud your judgment. These aren't unpopular characters on their own. There's always going to be context.