Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

abstain on both, bot played either series. noms go to spirit events continue after pass

 

[BowserKing]

Arle

Chance: 15%. There is still a chance for Arle to appear in the second fighter’s pass, but even then there is a bit of other Sega characters that could get in as well (Eggman for instance). There could also be a chance for Arle to be a Mii Costume and/or Spirit, and her chance could increase in the sequels.

Want: 60%. Arle would be fun to play as, and I can see her encounter Sonic, Kirby and Dr.Mario in a match, perhaps a free for all. Overall, she would make a decent Smash Bros rep, perhaps even more.

Phantasy Star Rep.

Chances: 5%. I have doubts a rep from that game could appear in the fighter’s pass, but we must expect the unexpected. As for Mii Costumes and/or spirit’s chance, it’s very for as well.

Want: 50%. This game I don’t know much about it, but if a character is fun to play as, then it’s good enough for me. Overall, a rep could be a decent Smash Bros rep, and it would help me know more about that game.

Predictions: Demi-Friend (5%) and Nahobino (5%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser and 5 for Lugia

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain.

Demi-Fiend: 50%
Nahobino: 40%

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x2
[Rerate] Sora x3

 

[DanganZilla5]

A cute girl who canonically decapitated someone

Chance: 50%

Yep I'm going there. I'm that confident in Arle for multiple reasons. Not just because she fills the criteria of a small last pick but for other reasons that I've stated many times so I'll bullet point them:

• Sega has been pushing the series in recent years, in their goal to make it an esport.
• Nintendo decided to put the original Puyo Puyo on the SNES online in NA despite Kirby's Avalanche being a thing that appeals more to western audiences. This alone makes me think that Nintendo has interest in Puyo Puyo to a certain extent.
• The crossovers with Tetris have given Puyo Puyo a much needed push in the West. It's still a niche series but it has garnered more attention overseas. The first Puyo Puyo Tetris game was in 2017 so the series had a good few years to grow before Nintendo would have decided on the pass.
• Puyo Puyo has a long history with Nintendo and is quite popular in Japan.
• Sega has gotten a lot of love in Smash and have a great relationship with Nintendo.
• In terms of Sega's library, the only other series that gives Arle a serious run for her money are SMT and Phantasy Star. I was confident in Eggman for a while but he's one of those characters that I feel would have been at E3 if he was in the pass.

Overall, Arle has a lot going for her and is one of the top choices for her company. There is a reason why she is one of my top 5 predictions for the last spot.

Want: 75%

Even though I'm not that good at Puyo Puyo I still really enjoy it. Whenever I do get a long chain the satisfaction I get from it is unlike anything else. Arle is a cute, likable character and overall the cast is great like Schezo who is a comedy goldmine ("The time has come for me to clear my name.....by assaulting this young girl!'). The music is great and the world is colorful and vibrant. So yeah I'm down for this.

_____________________

Phantasy Star rep

Chance: 25%

When I did my research I was thoroughly surprised. Honestly this might be a sleeper pick. Apparently Phantasy Star came out within two days of the original Final Fantasy, making it one of the pioneers of the RPG genre. Most of the games are critically acclaimed and have sold well. Phantasy Star Online is a landmark title for online console games as it allowed console gamers to experience an online dungeon crawling RPG, a novel concept for the time. Afterwards Phantasy Star would continue to get games, the newest being Phantasy Star Online 2 which got a PC and Xbox One localized port to the West and is available for the Switch, although it's for Japan only.

So what do I think about all that? Well I'm thoroughly impressed. The only thing that I can say against it is that for a long time it struggled to get localizations to the West. To be fair you could say the same thing about Puyo Puyo but comparing the releases during the last 5 or so years, Puyo Puyo has had more consistent localizations, hence the higher chance score. I know that it's not exactly a fair comparison since at least for PS Online 2 it is a big game so it takes more time to translate, but it just makes me think that Nintendo would rather go with Puyo Puyo instead. But I'll stop that discussion there since I'm not here to compare Phantasy Star to Puyo Puyo. Judging Phantasy Star on it's own, it certainly has its merits and it has a strong legacy. Personally, I'd call it a darkhorse pick and it's something to keep an eye on.

Want: 60%

Originally I was going to abstain due to not having a lot of knowledge on the series. My only experience with Phantasy Star was trying out one of the games on the Sonic's Ultimate Genesis Collection and stopping after like 15 minutes because I just can't enjoy old RPGs. But after everything I've read I think I'm down for this. In fact I'm gonna download Online 2 on my Xbox One later on and try it.

Predictions:
Demi-Fiend - 19%
Nahobino - 27%

Noms: Pyramid Head x20

 

[YoshiandToad]

Phantasy Star:

25% chance
When it comes to genre defining RPGs, Phantasy Star is amongst the biggest not currently included in Smash. Between the original four parter series and the insanely huge success of the Phantasy Star Online series, Phantasy Star is probably the most slept upon of the Sega properties.

Fun fact: Phantasy Star did the whole 'canonical death of a party member' WAY before Sephiroth came along and made Cloud cry over flower girl Aerith. One of the most memorable parts of Final Fantasy 7 was done eight years earlier by Phantasy Star.

Want: 75%
I must admit I'm pretty new to the series overall, going back and replaying this franchise and as someone who doesn't usually enjoy RPGs, the fact this one has a Sci-fi flavour is a breath of fresh air to me.

It really depends who gets chosen to how excited I'll get. For instance, Phantasy Star II's long eared half biomonster and tragic heroine Nei would be a big surprise, whilst as much as I love Rolf from the same game, he'd be another blue haired anime inspired swordsman sometimes with a cape and I can see that backfiring and giving a negative opinion of the series overall.

Then there's Phantasy Star Online which opens up yet more possibilities and plenty of more gun based offerings. There's plenty to pick from anyway, and it's worth a little interest. There's plenty of solid Mii Costume ideas that could come out with this and a frankly ludicrous amount of spirits and music associated with the series.

Arle Nadja:

25% chance
Puyo Puyo is huge in Japan...but the west only just got Arle over here really. Whilst I'm not sure if that would be a big deal breaker or not for Sega, they definitely have a lot of massively successful titles that have been around for far longer. That said unlike many of Sega's options, it's been pretty consistent with output and it is once again absolutely huge in Japan. If ANY Puyo Puyo character gets in I'd only be able to see it being Arle herself with Amitie being the only other character to have an outside chance, although I could see Carbuncle pairing with Arle too.

5% Want
I'm sorry. I've tried desperately to get into Puyo Puyo as I enjoy a good puzzle title, but for whatever reason Puyo Puyo just doesn't do it for me. I'm certainly not against Arle getting in should she make it(in fact she'd be easily in the better half of the DLC fighters should she make it), but unfortunately for Arle she's a SEGA character and I also have at least 15 other Sega series I personally prefer to hers.

Talking of which and since it would be thematically appropriate if EITHER of today's fighters should be fortunate enough to happen:

Nominations:
Alex Kidd Mii Costume X 10 (I think it's still ten votes per write up right?)

 

[Lyncario]

SEGA owned stuff part 1

Arle Nadja

Chance: 7%

Arle got some good stuff going for her. One of them is that her second series is a long lived one that has very close ties with Nintendo (most Nintendo systems got a Puyo Puyo game, with I think the virtual boy being the only exception) and that's very popular in Japan, on top of all that, Puyo Puyo Tetris is a thing, and so is Puyo Puyo Tetris 2, a game that features Sonic the Hedgehog. So on the point of both relevance, and legacy, Arle is more than good. She's also popular, and even has fan request since a good while from both Japan and Europe. So Arle would have a pretty good shot in my opinion. I also don't get the "only 3 characters by company" thing because it just doesn't make any sense any way whatsoever. The biggest problem that Arle would have is competition from her own company, since Sega got more than a few viable contenders. And while some people would say that she has no chance because she's not popular enough in the west (read: the USA), she is a popular character in not only Japan where she's kinda the mascot of Sega at the same high that Sonic is (since Sonic is not nearly as popular in Japan as it is in the rest of the world), while Puyo Puyo is aparently just as popular.

Want: 80%

SUre, why not. Arle is cool and cute, and while there's other Sega characters/series I want in Smash more (by that I mean that I really want Shin Megami Tensei to have actual content in Smash), Arle wouldn't bother me since she's a worthwhile character to add by her own merits. She could also have a very fun moveset, taking not only from Puyo Puyo, but also from Madou Monogotari, which is the other series she's a part of, and where she's a mage. So yeah, Arle would be fun and worth adding to Smash in my opinion.

Phantasy Star


Chance: 5%

Looking a bit into it, Phantasy Star does seem like a sleeper pick. It's the second oldest series Sega owns if I'm not mistaken, behind only Megami Tensei/Shin Megami Tensei. So yeah, that's a pretty big stuff, especialy since Phantasy Star would be a big genre defining game. It also has history with Nintnedo and is still relevant today with Phantasy Star Online 2 being a thing, and a very popular thing at that, with it having I think 5 million sales. For the character that could be chosen to represent it if it does join Smash, I think that Matoi could work since she's aparently an important character in Phantasy Star Online 2 and is also used for a bunch of promo stuff. She's also very popular according to what I read, so that would be another plus for her. And I also think that there was a leak that said that a Phnatasy Star character was one of the final characters, though I don't remember much of it. But otherwise, things do look pretty good for Phantasy Star getting something for Smash, other than the pretty big competition it's currently getting from other characters/series of it's own company, including most notably Shin Megami Tensei, which is an even older jrpg series than Phantasy Star. Though I will also note that Sakurai is a fan of the series and won a pretty big contest for it when he was young, but at this point I don't think that we need to say it any more time that Sakurai doesn't choose the dlc, or at least I hope that's the case.

Want: Abstain

I don't play Phantasy Star or Phantasy Online, so I really don't know much about it and how much I would want a character from the series, so I'm not the bst one to judge how a character from it would play and how fun it would fun, but looking at Matoi, she has a spear, and I guess that she would have a pretty cool moveset with it and the abilities she would have from being an mmo party member. So more slightly positive, but also more or less an I don't know.

Predictions

Demi-Fiend: 13.4%

Nahobino: 18.8%

Nominations

Virtual idols like Miku x what I got from my write up

 

[GoodGrief741]

Tetris Killer

Chance: 17%
I'm going to be somewhat lower on today's (and tomorrow's) characters' chances simply because it seems to me that most of Sega's candidates remain non-disconfirmed (undisconfirmed? Are these even words anymore?) and are niche enough to be in FP11. After all, that's Sega's business model nowadays: make super niche games and hope they eventually break into the mainstream. Been pretty ****ing successful, at that.

Anyway, Arle. Arle is the star of the Puyo Puyo series of puzzle games. Puyo Puyo is one of Sega's best sellers and is probably tied as the frontrunner for the puzzle genre with Professor Layton. In terms of "pure" puzzle games it's certainly one of the first that comes to mind. Its reputation (and sales numbers) have been helped by hooking its cart to the Tetris train, but make no mistake, Puyo Puyo carries its own weight.

Arle is reportedly one of Japan's most wanted, which definitely gives her a boost because it's already a big series with Western releases. There's also a small Western support base. And yeah, as rote as it sounds by this point, Sega wants the franchise to grow worldwide.

On the subject of moveset I don't see where the difficulty would lie. Sakurai has been going all out to make hypercomplex movesets that incorporate mechanics from the source material for Ult DLC (sometimes to a fault). If anything I'd say Arle is at least a character that justifies that and one where it wouldn't feel forced at all. I have no doubt he can make it work to his satisfaction.

Want: 50%
Sorry, Lip fan here. I can't help but see Arle as competition. If I knew they could coexist though, the score would be 100%. Arle more than deserves it.

Mother 3 for weebs

Chance: 15%
Phantasy Star is a long-running series of sci-fi RPGs by Sega. It's nowadays most recognized for the Phantasy Star Online duology, much to my chagrin. Not that those two games don't deserve their acclaim, PSO was revolutionary in terms of MMOs and online games in general and way ahead of its time in many aspects. But still, boiling down PS's legacy to just those two games is like, well, boiling down Warcraft's legacy to World of Warcraft. Even before the MMOs there was a whole other genre they defined.

The Phantasy Star tetralogy was Sega's counterpart to the Dragon Quest series, that was at that point still exclusive to Nintendo. The games are all incredible RPGs with great gameplay and fantastic storylines, and are usually considered some of the best games on the Master System. It was also one of the first non-medieval RPGs, 2 years before Mother and just a few months after Megami Tensei.

Personally I think MMOs have a disadvantage to them in terms of Smash because the protagonists tend to be generic and customizable. With that, and Sakurai's preference for historical picks, I think the frontrunner for the series would be leading lady Alis Landale. However since Nintendo is picking at least the franchises, I wouldn't put it past them to insist on specifically a PSO2 rep, and FP2's track record with side characters over protagonists means it's possible that we get a popular NPC.

Want:
If it's Alis then 100%. She's a fantastic, well-rounded character that I found unnervingly developed for a game in that era. If it's a PSO character then I'd really have no attachment to them. Plus it'd either be a generic avatar character or a waifu with questionable design so I can't deny it'd be a disappointment. But still whether I like the pick or not the series more than deserves its inclusion.

Noms: Tetra
Demifiend prediction: 22.45%
Nahobino prediction: 29.74%

I think it's still ten votes per write up right?

Yup!

 

[Speed Weed]

Looking a bit into it, Phantasy Star does seem like a sleeper pick. It's the second oldest series Sega owns if I'm not mistaken, behind only Megami Tensei/Shin Megami Tensei.

Aight, I'm coming in here just to say that this isn't true, like, at all.

Even taking out the already-pretty-big amount of one-off IPs they'd created by then, some of the multi-game series they created before Phantasy Star include OutRun, Fantasy Zone, Hang-On, Space Harrier, After Burner, Alex Kidd, Pengo, Monaco GP, Zaxxon, Shinobi and I'm sure there's a couple more I'm forgetting. SEGA's been in the video game biz for a while

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Arle

Chance: 45%

Puyo Puyo is enormous in Japan and has recently been brought over to the west, growing steadily in popularity. Sega obviously has a good relationship with Nintendo with all the other franchises currently in Smash so it's certainly a possibility.

Want: 100%

Sure, I love Puyo Puyo and I think Arle would have a great moveset. She would also provide a much needed Puzzle rep, and one that actually fights like one, (not counting since his moveset is just a clone of ).


Phantasy Star

Chance: 30%

Same with Arle, Sega has a good relationship with Nintendo and hasn't received a character yet in this pass, so it could happen. Phantasy Star is a classic series with a lot of legacy, so it could certainly happen.

Want: 90%

There are a lot of different characters that would range in my wants from 0-100% depending on who is chosen, but I'd be fine with this series being represented in general. This would mainly be due to its legacy and such.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Phoenix Wright/Amaterasu pre-Arle Nadja/Concept: Phantasy Star newcomer

Octoling x438
[Rerate] Louie x395
Mii Costume: 2B x380
Pyramid Head x335
Meat Boy x305
Junpei (Zero Escape) x297
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x275
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x275

300 - 251

Corvo Attano x265

250 - 201

Senator Armstrong x245
Tetra x240
Gunvolt x220

200 - 151

Ori x200
Stage: Bowser's Castle x192
Ratchet & Clank x190
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Boss: Rayquaza x180

150 - 101

Echo (Bowser) x143
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Boss: Ender Dragon x133
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
[Rerate] Kiryu x125
Stage: Tetris x120
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x120
D.Va x115
Fulgore x112
[Rerate] Gene x110
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Soma Cruz x68
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
[Rerate] Eggman x64
Ghirahim x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x45
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
[Rerate] Sora x36
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
Off The Hook x20
Lugia x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
DJ Octavio x5
Firebrand x1

Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku joins the top seven, tied with Concept: Danganronpa protagonist for seventh place.

Corvo Attano sneaks past 250 noms.

Concept: Crazy Taxi character speeds past 100 noms.

Eggman captures 50 noms.

Today's new nominee is a rerate of Kiryu, with 125 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about either.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

A cute girl who canonically decapitated someone

I think all of the Madou Monogatari stuff got de-canonized by SEGA xD


Arle Nadja

Chance: 40% - I can say I'm very confident in a character like her for FP11, and very much has similar conditions to Phoenix. Furthermore, Arle has had plenty of time to build up a Western base for herself with the Tetris crossovers, with the first coming long before FP2 was decided. While the series is still niche overall, it's a way bigger presence than before, and it's even being accepted as an eSport. With Namco getting a second character, we're definitely due for another SEGA character, too! The only major barrier to Arle's entry is simply competition within SEGA. SMT has become, for some, the new bogeyman of speculation and is ripe for a textbook shill pick in Nahobino. Eggman's still in the running I'd say, especially with the recent findings that FP10 and 11 might've been swapped. Finally, one more notable piece of competition (who everyone sleeps on for some reason) is Aiai from Super Monkey Ball, who's had a successful revival with Banana Blitz HD, and is getting a lot of attention from SEGA for the upcoming Banana Mania. While it likely won't be a thing, one could say that inter-series competition could hurt her, too. Amitie was the face of the franchise from 2000 until around 2010 when SEGA had just gotten the franchise, and Ringo and Tee are the most recognizable to fans of the Tetris crossovers, due to their central role in those games (though Arle still has a big presence so there's no excuse xD). Overall I think Arle has a very good shot! It's just competition that weights her down.

Want: 80% - She is so sweet, it's hard not to want her! I did attempt to get into Puyp Puyo Tetris 2, and while I found the Puyo elements extremely frustrating, I have to say that the cast is full of very colorful and lovable characters! Furthermore, Arle has legacy, Nintendo presence, and even reps a new genre! She would have access to both her magic and dropping Puyos, and we all know Smash is basically devoid of mages! Top that all off with a colorful, cartoony design (which would definitely be a nice change of pace in an overall very realistic character DLC cycle) and you have an excellent addition that brings a lot to the table! Granted, I DO have to take some points off since I really want a second Sonic rep, but Arle's definitely one of my second choices for the next SEGA rep! She's so precious!


Phantasy Star Online Rep

Chance: 15% - It's hard to say how poised we are for a character like this. On one hand, Phantasy Star is definitely a historical Sakurai pick, and the second online game recently got localized. On the other hand, Nintendo and SEGA haven't been marketing it, and said localization happened after FP2 was already decided (I know Phantasy Star in general had localized games, I meant that this recent bit of Phantasy Star attention would have no impact on the pass). Still it does have its' place in history, being an RPG pioneer and a way for console gamers to experience a dungeon crawling RPG, a genre that was primarily PC at the time (franchises like The Elder Scrolls wouldn't make the jump to consoles until Morrowind in 2002). People are also bringing up the leak that contained Phantasy Sta as the final character, but I personally don't believe in it. The era of leakers is over. Verge went out with a resounding thud, and we haven't gotten a Smash character leaked since Banjo. A leak telling us Phantasy Star is coming months and MONTHS ahead of time? It's just not happening. Really, while I'd still consider Phantasy Star a lower sleeper pick, at the same time there really isn't anything explicitly standing in the franchise's way aside from competition within SEGA, some of which have been getting more recent and consistent attention.

Want: 15% - Sci-Fi does seem interesting, though I can't say I have much excitement for Phantasy Star. The Nintendo representation definitely helps, too, but I have no experience with the franchise aside from hearing a friend of mine gush about it for two hours straight. It would be cool if we got someone like Alis, a more defined character. Though knowing Nintendo's marketing decisions we'd probably get a typical newest-game rep for 2 that's either an uninspired protagonist or a waifu, and that doesn't sound very appealing, especially as the final character. There's basically a right and wrong way to do this. xP Furthermore, I just have way more interest in SEGA's other offerings, often the more Cartoony ones like Eggman, Arle, or Aiai (and if we get someone like a Phantasy Star character, Sonic's gonna look super out of place among the reps from his own company). And as a big Sonic fan, the franchise getting a second rep is one of my most wanted Smash picks. So while there is definitely a way to do Phantasy Star right and the Sci-Fi elements are a breath of fresh air, the franchise as a whole doesn't really interest me, and there are several SEGA characters I would just much rather say.

Though I do have to say, this song makes fantastic background music when reading about alien worlds and speculative evolution!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xAll

Predictions:
Demi Fiend - 32.81%
Nahobino - 65.39%

Shin Megami Tensei is in a good position to get a promotional pick with how much Nintendo is promoting V. Though definitely expecting more confidence in Nahobino, being V's protagonist.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Arle Nadja
Chance: 10%
I can see Arle fitting well as our final character. Not an earthshattering inclusion but still requested enough to make most people satisfied... hopefully. Puyo Puyo has been rapidly growing in popularity as of late from what I know, so the time would definitely be ripe for it. She's also been a Japanese fan-favorite for years and representing classic puzzle games she would certainly bring something new to the table. As a Sega rep she still gets competition from SMT as Nintendo's giving that series quite some attention too.

Want: 20%
I was more optimistic about Arle when Volume 2 was new but with everything now revolving around Fighter 11, it's harder for me to build up excitement for Arle. Idk what other people think but Puyo Puyo Tetris just looked way too similar to the first game that I skipped out on it and I haven't been in my Puyo phase since. If Arle was the last fighter I'd be happy but I would still lament over my preferred choices.

Abstaining on Phantasy star

Demi fiend: 24.95%
Nahobino: 39.28%
Bandana Dee x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain

Ori xall

 

[Ridrool64]

When the birthday is in 12 days!

Chance: 35%. Alongside that the same applies to Kiryu and another 30% for Shin Megami Tensei. SEGA is perhaps the most absent company from Smash Ultimate Volume 2 up to this point: besides some Sonic content that doesn't have anything we haven't already seen, nothing's turned up. That can be taken as both an indicator that the last character will be SEGA's, again, or that SEGA is done with content in Smash. I think the SEGA race is between those three primarily for different reasons. Let's look at Arle as she's the star tonight.

Good points: Highest Japanese popularity and fan requests. Her series has seen a serious western push that's seemingly here to stay, perhaps for good. Puyo Puyo!! Quest means Puyo can give as well as take. Arle is visually distinct and unique from every single character on the roster, and uses a type of fighting style that nobody else does, so moveset likely isn't an issue. Being the smallest series of the three is actually beneficial due to dwindling hype theory suggesting Yakuza or SMT would've been in by now. Lastly of the leading reps for Puyo/Yakuza/SMT Arle's the only one who still is a face (if not THE face) of the series while Kiryu is taking a backseat to Ichiban and SMT cycles out protags leading to inter-series competition.

Bad points: Still in the process of a western push which means not exactly the best western prominence (has been cited as a reason for passing over Takamaru at least). Incidents, although considering they weren't held against Crash or Chief you really shouldn't count them against Arle. There may be issues with bringing in violence although there are conflicting reports on what that would mean for Smash Bros. Versus Yakuza, that series is more popular in general as well as more acclaimed. Versus Shin Megami Tensei, SMTV is going to be more recent and do the best job extending Ultimate's shelf life. Arle generally doesn't really beat or lose to Kiryu/Demi Fiend easily in requests but Kiryu is the one who gains steam the fastest. Roster may have been decided well before 2017 in which case Puyo in the west was still dead.

Want: 100%. I've gone over this before and don't need to say it again and again and again. But from my biases + perspective Arle is the only outright perfect pick. Henry gets close but even he has a weakness.

It's with a P.H., not an F. (This is a Johnny Test reference. Don't ask why I chose to reference that it was the best I had.)

Chance: 20%. Although I don't consider it in the lead, per se, if SEGA gets a rep and it's not Puyo/Yakuza/SMT it's probably this, simply due to PSO2. Alis Landale or Rolf are probably gonna get Mii'd or Spirited away to make room for a PSO2 rep as that's perhaps the biggest and most important Phantasy Star game in recent times. The big thing that keeps me doubting it compared to the triple threat is that unlike the former three which all have recent games and either bigger legacies (Puyo for puzzles, SMT for RPGs) or straight up are just SEGA's biggest and most respected franchise (Yakuza, Sonic is obviously bigger but is also much more controversial). As well as the difficulties on deciding how to incorporate Phantasy Star, or even if they don't consider it, or if other SEGA series like Sakura Wars or Super Monkey Ball or Streets of Rage or even something that hasn't seen a game in a while comes into play... a Phantasy Star character is a tricky sell. And this is assuming another Sonic rep is too big to be the last character...

Want: 0%. RPG fatigue + SEGA but not Arle + no experience with these games = no positives. Hard pass. Sorry, no hard feelings and nothing personal but this would easily be one of the worst case scenarios.

Next game isn't a reboot x max. Demi vs. Naho is basically legacy vs. relevance all over again. Considering Joker got in, but he was from both the biggest installment and an installment that had actually come out in addition to the most recent one, I feel like that points to Demi Fiend more. So, Demi will get 18.37% and Naho 16.64%. But both will be close.

 

[Sari]

Arle

Chance: 30%
Arle is one of those characters that doesn't really have anything going against her outside of general competition. She's very popular in Japan and her series has been getting a ton of Western push from Sega for the last decade or so. Assuming CP11 is a more niche pick (which is what I'm thinking it will be atm), I could easily see it being Arle. As far as Sega reps go, she is definitely one of the frontrunners.

Want: 90%
Even though I'm complete trash at it, I really do enjoy the Puyo Puyo games. I had one of those Genesis Plug-n'-Play controllers when I was a kid and Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine took up a ton of my time. While even I'm not sure exactly how Arle would play, I'm confident that Sakurai would make her a blast to use as well as super faithful to her games. Seeing some of the other Puyo Puyo characters get the Hero treatment with Arle would also be nice to see. Also while it technically might not be the same thing, we are seriously long overdue for a Tetris stage. A Puyo Puyo stage with falling objects would be a welcomed addition.

-----

Abstaining on Phantasy Star.

-----

Demi-Fiend chance prediction: 10.00%
Nahobino chance prediction: 25.00%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x10

 

[MasterCheef]

Matoi via Sega w/ PSO2 __ chance 100% __ in fighters pass 3 __ want score %100

Leaked on 01/23/2021 https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/541591126/#q541596708

https://www.luro.io/articles/ubitus-provides-sega-the-tech-needed-to-run-phantasy-star-online-2-new-genesis-in-the-cloud/
PSO2 New Genesis Cloud a cloud version released June 9th 2021 for Switch & PS4 in Japan
Feb 2021 Sega Financial Results https://www.segasammy.co.jp/english/pdf/release/202103_3q_presentation_20210212_e.pdf

Since Sega already has a character in SSBU and Phantasy Star New Genesis is going to be an important part of Sega's revenue going forward. Matoi seems extremely likely to me.

Her play-style would likely be a high damage high reward Ranged glass cannon type which is exactly what i want.

Nominations X5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Matoi via Sega w/ PSO2 __ chance 100% __ in fighters pass 3 __ want score %100

Leaked on 01/23/2021 https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/541591126/#q541596708

https://www.luro.io/articles/ubitus-provides-sega-the-tech-needed-to-run-phantasy-star-online-2-new-genesis-in-the-cloud/
PSO2 New Genesis Cloud a cloud version released June 9th 2021 for Switch & PS4 in Japan
Feb 2021 Sega Financial Results https://www.segasammy.co.jp/english/pdf/release/202103_3q_presentation_20210212_e.pdf

Since Sega already has a character in SSBU and Phantasy Star New Genesis is going to be an important part of Sega's revenue going forward. Matoi seems extremely likely to me. Nominations X5

You're gonna need more than that...

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Matoi via Sega w/ PSO2 __ chance 100% __ in fighters pass 3 __ want score %100

Leaked on 01/23/2021 https://arch.b4k.co/v/thread/541591126/#q541596708

https://www.luro.io/articles/ubitus-provides-sega-the-tech-needed-to-run-phantasy-star-online-2-new-genesis-in-the-cloud/
PSO2 New Genesis Cloud a cloud version released June 9th 2021 for Switch & PS4 in Japan
Feb 2021 Sega Financial Results https://www.segasammy.co.jp/english/pdf/release/202103_3q_presentation_20210212_e.pdf

Since Sega already has a character in SSBU and Phantasy Star New Genesis is going to be an important part of Sega's revenue going forward. Matoi seems extremely likely to me.

Her play-style would likely be a high damage high reward glass cannon type

Nominations X5

Hey, I can tell you are new, so I am going to help you through RTC and its framework.

Posts usually go in a format of Chance Score, Chance Paragraph/Sentences. Want Score, Want Sentences. There is an example post in the OP post in the thread, but there are also plenty of users posts today that could serve as a solid example for the future. Next off, make sure you embed your links next time. Just dropping a few links without much context does not really help your argument.

While I understand your argument somewhat, I think you might need to be more objective with her chance. Right now you are saying you are completely certain that a Phantasy Star Character is getting in, despite the fact that as far as we know, there is only one fighter left. Next time, try to be more objective in terms of chance. Would a Phantasy Star character be cool? Perhaps, but unless you can make a stronger argument I cant really have your posts count for the final average.

That being said, I would love for you to come back. Perhaps you could nominate whoever you think would be cool to discuss next time.

Now, onto my ratings.

Arle
30% Chance

Honestly, a lot of what I said about Phoneix can be said here, except I am not nearly as bullish on Sega as I am Capcom. Arle honestly does not have much going against her right now outside of, well, competition.

For starters, Arle is a reasonably popular choice. While Arle has never been an S tier request, she always has done reasonably well for herself. She has been popular in Japan since the ballot days. While RTC is not a perfect barometer, she has always done fine for herself here. As a result, I feel at least somewhat comfortable saying that Arle is someone that is at least somewhat popular. It also helps her support has been relatively steady, also like Wrights. Some characters go through ebbs and flows of demand. Hayabusa, Dante, or Doomguy are all examples where there was a large spike in demand, but it kind of died down to an extent. Arle however is in a boat similar to Wright, Crash, or Rayman, where her fan demand has been pretty consistent.

Puyo also has the advantage of being alive and thriving on the switch. Puyo Puyo Tetris did well enough for itself to get a sequel, likely due to being one of the earliest Switch games out there. I still remember playing it in April of 2017 at PAX East. While it likely did well because it crossed over with Tetris and was a launch title, at leas tat the moment Puyo is pretty healthy and solidly in Nintendo's camp.

I think the only real argument against Arle is Sega competition. You got SMT, Eggman, and the Phantasy Star Concept as reasonable competition. Sega itself though does seem to be one of the safer bets for a CP 11 company.

I would say still if you wanted a relatively safe CP 11 bet, Arle is one of the safest.

100% Want

My want write up got lost, so I will be as brief as I can be for my noms. I love Puyo Puyo Fever. It is one of those gamecube games that might be on the obscure side but i have a lot of happy memories with, like Ribbit King. The multiplayer memories I made in high school with this game were great. I remember playing a lot of PPT when it launched on the switch, and it is a blast still. I still sometimes play it with friends. I would love to see a puzzle rep in smash, and Arle seems to me like the best bet.

Also maybe this could mean one day we get a ****ing tetris stage for the love of god.

Concept: Phantasy Star Rep

20% Chance

Honestly, I think this is a Falcom tier dark horse. While at first PS might be a bit of a weird choice, it honestly makes enough sense to choose.

For starters, this is clearly an old school Sakurai pick. Sakurai is a big fan of Phantasy Star. Heck, I put this on the fixed schedule after seeing that Sakurai entered and won an old Phantasy Star II contest. I could easily see Sakurai going for a pick he has personal nostalgia for like Terry. While Nintendo clearly has a role in selecting DLC, so does Sakurai. If we could see a "Sakurai Pick" like Terry or Joker, I could see Phantasy Star getting the nod.

Phantasy Star also has a good bit of legacy behind it. It was created by Sega because they felt with RPGs gaining popularity, they needed a JRPG. It is one of the grandaddys of the genre alongside Dragon Quest, Final Fantasy, and Ys. In order to stand out from other JRPGs, the development team decided instead of pure fantasy, they would lean on sci fi as well. Now, this might not seem that groundbreaking nowadays. You could hardly swing a cat without finding at least some sci fi in your JRPGs. Final Fantasy adopted plenty of Sci Fi elements as it went on, as did most JRPG series. But Phantasy Star was Sci Fi from the beginning, while everyone else was testing the waters with generic fantasy games inspired by Ultima. Other design decisions were made to make sure Phantasy Star stood out as much as it could, from 3D ish dungeons that the Famicon could not do, to having Alis as the main protagonist, having a female protagonist instead of a male one.

Phantasy Star itself did quite well, the first 4 games all were strong successful releases on the Sega Master System and Genesis. Phantasy Star Online was one of the killer apps of the dreamcast and an influencial MMO. The sequel is finally getting a localization and is a clear money maker for Sega. The franchise, while it has had a hiatus from the west, I would not say is completely underground. The Phantasy Star Series, in particular the genesis games and Online, get a ton of love in their respective console fanbases.

Now in terms of who, I'll be honest the Phantasy Star I am the most familiar with is PSIV, which is one of the best games on the Genesis. Most of the other games in the series I have a passing familiarity at best or have not played. You could do Chaz from IV, Rolf from II, or even someone from Online or Online 2 like Matoi. But if I had to bet, I would go with Alis. She is the most recurring protagonist, had an alternative continuity appearance in Online, and she has appeared in the most Sega crossover stuff. If I had to bet on a Phantasy Star character, I would say the order goes Alis>Matoi>=Rolf>Chaz, but that's just me.

Now, Phantasy Star is not without competition. Sega has plenty of competition you could choose from. But if I had to point out a sleeper pick, I would say Phantasy Star lines up well with other sleeper picks we have highlighted in the past, like Terry and Adol.

80% Want

Honestly, for broad concepts it is hard to rate because there are so many potential choices. If we did get a Phantasy Star rep, I would by happy with Alis the most because imo she deserves it the most and would be the most visually unique. Chaz and Rolf, I personally think might be a little boring, and I say that as someone who likes Phantasy Star. A PSO rep could be cool, I am on the unfamiliar side though. From what I have seen they would be ok, but I would prefer Alis be the rep just due to the historical reasons.

That being said, I would love Phantasy Star in smash just because it is a cool series. I like 4 a lot, and I have a vested interest in playing the other games at least somewhat. While my love for a rep is up in the air depending on who would be chosen, I think I can say that I would not be upset with this choice.

Kiryu x 20

 

[SilverSoul24]

Apparently Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine

Chance: 40%
Arle has more going for her than people think. Puyo Puyo is obviously huge in Japan and has had generally decent success in the West as well. If Smash were going to get a puzzle genre rep (no, Dr. Mario doesn't count), Arle is probably the frontrunner. Her series has the legacy worth of representation in Smash, and she could bring a diverse collection of songs and Spirits with her inclusion. Plus, a Puyo Puyo stage would likely be a blast to play on. Her biggest hurdles to overcome are, frankly, other Sega newcomers. Sonic, SMT, Super Monkey Ball, and several others have relevant presences on Switch, so it really comes down to how far Sega wants to push Arle's series. If a Puyo Puyo newcomer is in, it's Arle, no question. It's just a matter of whether or not Sega would opt for it over something else.

Want: 60%
I'll be honest, my only personal experience with Arle's series comes from picking up Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 back in January as an impulse buy. I ended up really enjoying it, and the character battles with RPG elements are easily the highlight. Arle herself is pretty endearing, and while she's not my favorite among Puyo Puyo's wacky ensemble, she's definitely the face of the series. I'm even tempted to go back and check earlier titles out of curiosity. If we are indeed getting a Sega newcomer, Arle isn't exactly my first choice, but I would be totally down with seeing her join Smash.

The Whole New World

Chance: 20%
I think that a Phantasy Star rep is possible as a dark horse pick. Of course, PSO2 recently arrived in the West and is still going strong in Japan. A Phantasy Star newcomer could bring a gorgeous stage, not to mention a bevy of songs and Spirits across both the original RPG and MMO incarnations. I doubt many people would be excited about a Phantasy Star rep, but I don't think it would be received as poorly as someone from an already-represented series like Pokemon or Fire Emblem. As far as promotional picks go, it's far from impossible. Again, it just depends on how much Sega wants to push it over other franchises. PSO2 already does some cross-promotion, and frankly, it doesn't need Smash to be successful. It seems unlikely to me that Sega would feel the need to bother. Sakurai has a history with the series though, so if he made the call with a Sega newcomer, I wouldn't rule out a Phantasy Star rep.

Want: 80%
This is a weird one to rate because most of my experience with the Phantasy Star series comes from one game. But man, what an experience it was. Phantasy Star Online Episode 1&2 for the Gamecube is probably one of my top 10 games of all time. The nostalgia I have for this game is unreal. Back in elementary and middle school, couch multiplayer among my friends was dominated by a few titles: Melee, Mario Party (generally 4. 6. or 7), and PSO. So many sleepovers were dominated by playing co-op PSO deep into the night. The world, the weapons, the music, the creature/enemy design... It's all so unique and burned into my memory. Despite knowing the game and most of its character classes like the back of my hand, it's really one of those evergreen titles I could just play forever and never get bored. And that doesn't even acknowledge the game's online features, which were of course revolutionary for the time. Not only was it among my first experiences with an MMO (alongside Runescape), but it still gives me the occasional nostalgia trip by playing on private servers. I've dabbled a bit with PSIV and PSO2, but the original PSO impacted me in a way that no other game likely ever will. A PSO rep in Smash would just further solidify Ultimate's roster as a dream come true to my younger self.

All that being said, I'm not entirely jazzed at the prospect of a Phantasy Star newcomer. If they are not from the first PSO, my interest drops significantly, and that's likely not the game Sega would want to push. Also, adding MMO characters to Smash is tricky by its nature, as customizable avatar characters aren't easily recreated. Plus, there's RPG fatigue in the DLC. even with me. I've got my Final Fantasy and Xenoblade newcomers. I love me some PSO, but some more variation in the genres newcomers hail from would be nice too. If I absolutely had to choose the Sega newcomer, it would still probably be Eggman.

Noms: Ori x all

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now.

Today we are doing SMT. In one corner, we got the Demi Fiend from Nocturne. In the other, we have the new hotness, Nahobino from SMT V. Rate them in chance and want.

Tomorrow is a Gacha day. Predict Saber from Fate, Euden from Dragalia Lost, and Gran and Djeeta from Granblue Fantasy. Note that these two are basically a Male Robin Female Robin sitch from what I can gather from the website, so rate them together or just Gran.

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain.

Saber: 20%
Euden: 30%
Gran/Djeeta: 20%

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x3
[Rerate] Sora x2

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Well i took too much time to rate a Phantasy Star rep, damn. I already wanted to write a wall of text but anyway.

I have abstain on both of these characters. SMT is a franchise i don't care about and i don't feel compelled to write about hem.

So i will pass on them and rate the next o-

Tomorrow is a Gacha day. Predict Saber from Fate, Euden from Dragalia Lost, and Gran and Djeeta from Granblue Fantasy.

..........................oh no.............


Anyway. Nominating Gunvolt X5.

 

[chocolatejr9]

..........................oh no.............

Which one?

 

[BowserKing]

Demi-fiend

Chance: 5%. Technically we got a SMT Rep, being Joker since Persona is a SMT spin-off. So Demi-fiend’s chance is quite low. But then again we have been surprised before and Demi-fiend’s chance can increase in the sequels.

Want: 50%. Demi-fiend could be fun to play as, and I can see Demi-fiend and Joker in a 1v1 fight. Overall, Demi-fiend would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Nahobino

Chance: 5%. The above reason why Demi-fiend is at 5% is also why Nahobino’s chance is at 5%. That and SMT V being an upcoming game (I think) might make a dent in the chance, but the chance could increase in the sequels.

Want: 50%. Nahobino would be fun to play as, and I can see Nahobino and Joker fight in a 1v1 match, or Nahobino vs Demi-fiend, but not for Ultimate I’m afraid. Overall, Nahobino would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Saber (10%), Euden (10%) and Gran and Djeeta (5%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Which one?

All of them, but Saber in particular.

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain

Ori x all

 

[DanganZilla5]

Nahobino and his fiendish rival

Chance for both: 32%

First, let's start with SMT's legacy. It is a series that goes back to 1987 and it's a pretty god dam expansive series, spawning many sequels, spinoffs and other stuff like anime and manga. Taking a quick look on Wikipedia, many of the games have done very well financially and critically, even over in the West. Apparently it's quite popular in Japan and is one of the more notable RPGs not represented in Smash. And no I'm not counting Persona as there are no direct references to SMT in Joker's pack. In fact I'm making it clear now that I don't think the Persona content hurts SMT as Persona is it's own thing despite being a spinoff and it says a lot when we don't even have Jack Frost represented anywhere, not even as a spirit. That just raises my eyebrow.

Now to compare Demi-Fiend and Nahobino's situations, they both have advantages and disadvantages. SMT 3 was the first game to be localized overseas so it's an important title for the I.P and since it originally came out in 2003 and got a remaster last year it has received enough time to be established. People know who Demi-Fiend is and SMT 3 is clearly one of the more popular titles so it's a safe pick. On the other hand, SMT 5 has been worked on for a long time and ever since it was officially shown off last year there has been hype built around it. I think even compared to Noctume Nintendo and Sega have been marketing SMT 5 a lot and it's clear they want to make it a big deal.

Now one thing that people like to bring up is that "They wouldn't release a character before their game even comes out". But the thing is there is a good chance that Covid screwed up the timing. SMT 5 might have been planned to be released right now but it didn't. You could also analyze the fact that Sakurai said that the next fighter would take a while. To me this doesn't mean that it will take 6 months to get the next fighter ready, I just think that he means more like 3-4 months since.....well the Smash community is impatient to say the least. That's how I interpret the statement but I can't deny that there is a decent chance that Nahobino could have been delayed if SMT 5 was indeed delayed. The point is, this puts Nahobino in an unknown position. It makes him ripe to be a promotional pick which fits with the pattern of the last spot but there is also the possibility that Sakurai would have been forced to put in Demi-Fiend instead if the SMT 5 developers couldn't tell him enough info.

Finally, other factors that affect these two are of course other Sega candidates like Arle and Phantasy Star which have a good case as well and the fact that SMT 3 and 5 could get spirit events at anytime. But overall I'm feeling good about SMT in general. Plus it would be fitting if Ultimate's DLC started and ended with the same franchise (And for the record I just think this would be a coincidence if we do end up in this timeline).

Want: Abstain

I haven't had the chance to play any of the SMT games yet. Right now I'm on a Xenoblade binge and I have other RPGs on my mind so It'll be awhile before I touch this series.

Predictions:
Saber - 6%
Euden - 9%
Gran/Djeeta - 5%

Noms: Pyramid Head x20

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

..........................oh no.............

I couldn't have put it better myself.

when we don't even have Jack Frost represented anywhere

Except Joker's codename XDDDDD


Demi Fiend

Chance: 30% - Shin Megami Tensei has been a ongoing Nintendo staple for years and has built up a decent following as a result. SEGA's due for another character, and they seem to adore Atlus as their newest rising star, so them getting another character isn't out of the question. Plus Nintendo's been heavily promoting the franchise as of late, so that, combined with the historical value in the monster-catching genre appealing to Sakurai (with his appetite for Persona satiated) puts the franchise in a very good position. Furthermore, Demi-Fiend's game got an HD rerelease recently so relevance isn't an issue for him at all. There's also this one theory going around in regards to GameSpot (I think?) where the person who took screenshots for the preview of Nocturne HD named his character "Masahiro Sakurai", though still take this with a grain of salt, and there IS a character with the same name in Shin Megami Tensei (though MUCH better known as "Spooky"). Still, that's all just conjecture. Now Nintendo and Sakurai might think Persona is "enough", since it's a spinoff of Shin Megami Tensei, but I don't think Nintendo would really adhere to that if money's involved. Really, Demi-fiend only has to worry about inter-series competition (with current speculation darling Nahobino) along with inter-company competition that SEGA's also been giving a lot of attention to lately (Another Sonic rep, Arle Nadja, Aiai, etc). Still, Demi-fiend's in a very good spot for the final character, and it's worth keeping an eye on him.

Want: 15% - I personally have no connection to his franchise, JRPG fatigue, and there are other SEGA characters I'm hoping for (namely the three listed above). Still, if I HAD to choose a SMT protagonist I'd definitely pick him over Nahobino. He's more hand-to-hand, and combining that with summoning would help him stand out more than another flashy sword character. Furthermore, despite being a shill pick, he'd at least be a shill pick done right, as he's a character that's had years of legacy despite the shill status, and thus his place in Smash would feel a little more earned. That Nintendo legacy SMT has is much appriciated, and if I made the decisions for the DLC and had to pick an Atlus rep, I'd gladly slot in SMT over its' Almost-no-Nintendo-history spinoff. Still, too much competition and JRPG fatigue holds Demi-fiend back for me.


Nahobino

Chance: 30% - A lot of what affects Demi-fiend also affects Nahobino. Nintendo's been heavily promoting and hyping Shin Megami Tensei V, even showing it off at E3. It's clear that they want to make this a big deal. Furthermore, it's had a long development time, so likely Nintendo would be able to get Sakurai a preview copy to base a moveset on. The game also comes out later this year, and Sakurai did mention that the next character would take awhile. They could be very well lining it up for a big promotional pairing. There's also some kind of bugginess going on with Cloud's sword effects, and Nahobino's a flashy sword-user, so that's another clue that potentially points to him. So why give Nahobino the same score as Demi-Fiend despite having all of the advantages? Well, Nahobino's case is a story we've heard twice already...

... and it hasn't ended well either time.

Even a character with a lot in their favor could get an unceremonious deconfirmation at any time. Which is why, sometimes,, a character's chances really are too good to be true. Outside of that, same issues of competition as Demi-Fiend. Granted, an obvious shill like Nahobino's still a character to look out for, but don't assume they're in just because of it.

Want: 0% - In purely because of marketing and promotion? Check. Game isn't out yet? Check. Heavily advertised game with little fan demand for the character? Check. Ladies and gentlemen, Nahobino is a TEXTBOOK shill pick, and many of you know how I feel about those kind of shills. While SMT indeed does deserve a rep, there's way better choices that have had a chance to garner a fanbase before inclusion. Furthermore, I've seen footage of the character and outside of the summoning aspects, he's basically a flashy sword user. And is that really a worthwhile addition to Smash? Alongside that, there's way too many other SEGA character I'd rather see, all of which, unlike Nahobino, wouldn't make Sonic feel alien among his own company's reps. I'm sorry, this character just isn't the way to end off Smash...


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xAll

Predictions:
Saber - 5.02%
Euden - 10.94%
Gran - 4.24%

Thankfully Smashboards isn't loaded with obnoxious gacha fans so the scores these three get should remain rather sane. Furthermore, the whole Granblue buzz died down awhile ago.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

unintelligble screeching

Chance: 10% SMT's been getting a ****ton of attention recently and understandably so, with the fanfavourite installment getting a remaster and a new game coming soon, but why would Demifiend get in? Well, it's simple, as already stated, the fanfavourite Nocturne got remastered, Demifiend coming from it meaning he not only has popularity on his side among other SMT characters but he also carries recency, as for why SMT would be considered, it's a real standout from JRPGs due to it's more realistic suburban settings and how the apocalypse most games are about preventing has already happened, this franchise also gave us whst may be the first morality systems in video games, with players getting a different ending depending on their alignment which is determined by their actions. There is the argument that we already have SMT in Smash because of Persona but not only are these considered seperate franchises by Sega, but there's no actual SMT content, it'd be like saying Donkey Kong has never had less than 4 characters in Smash because of Mario and other spinoffs of Mario. Demifiend is also unique for a JRPG protagonist as his weapon of choice is to ****ing deck you, which I can imagine is rather appealing to Sakurai as there aren't many other protags like him that come to mind, really, his only issue is competition

Want: 100% I may have only played the 4 duology so far but I've seen enough of Nocturne to know Demifiend would be incredible, with such a unique design, series tone and music being so different from anything else I've seen in video games, I'm waiting for a sale as the remaster seems pretty iffy, especially on Switch, my preference for turn based games, but I've seen more than enough of the series as a whole to be thrilled at the idea.

Chance: 1% You can copy most of what I said about Demifiend and it'd still apply as, y'know, same series. Witu Nahobino though, things get very different very quickly, the main difference being that his game isn't out yet, but despite that I feel he has a nonzero chance, for starters, this isn't the base game where that's a death sentence, second, this game is a pretty big deal in the eyes of Nintendo, having been announced at the Switch reveal event way back in January 2017, getting the game as an exclusive and showcasing it on Nintendo Treehouse this year, I also get the feeling that the worldwide release has to do with Nintendo considering Atlus' track record. The game itself is almost done, merely going through the polishing phase, so I feel the timing adds up very well here.

Want: 70% I'm a tad hesitant on higher ratings as the game obviously isn't out yet but Nahobino would also bring content from older games which guarantees satisfaction and V doesn't stray away from what's interesting about the series, not to mention that Nahobino so far looks really cool based on visual design and the moves we've seen him use

Split noms between Junpei and Soma

 

[Idon]

If I hear a single one of you call Joker an SMT character again, I'm gonna throw hands.

 

[fogbadge]

If I hear a single one of you call Joker an SMT character again, I'm gonna throw hands.

throw hands?

anyway abstain. not played the series. noms go to spirit events continue after pass

 

[Lyncario]

SEGA boys 2: electric- null

"I wanna punch God in the face"

Chance: 8%

Demi-Fiend is, in my opinion, still the most likely SegAtlus character. Before talking about his chances, I'm going to take the time to remind everyone of the difference betweeen Shin Megami Tensei and it's spin-offs, which include Persona. In Japan, Persona, Digital Devil Saga, Devil Survivor, do not have the Shin Megami Tensei pre-title title, unlike in the rest of the world where it was made so that fans who liked Nocturne would easily know that this was another game made by the same developper. But it's not the same series, even if they are all under the Megami Tensei, or simply MegaTen, umbrella, which is more the multiverse in which all of those series happen rather than a game or novel series at this point. But to make it short, no, SMT and Persona aren't the same series, and same is to be said about other games that have the Shin Megami Tensei pre-title in their title outside of Japan. Now that this is said, what about Demi-Fiend's actual chances? Well, I believe that Demi-Fiend is that most likely SMT character, and why it's not Nahobino will be explained in Nahobino's own chance section. That being said, Shin Megami Tensei is one of the oldest and most influencial jrpg series, especialy if you go back to Megami Tensei on the famicom, in which case it's older than Final Fantasy. It's also very present on Nintendo system, even if Demi-Fiend only apeared on a Nintendo system in the dlc for SMT4A until Nocturne HD. But talking about it, Nocturne HD is a thing, and it's a pretty big thing in it's own right, since Nintendo put a mini-direct under pretty much the sole guise of Nocturne HD and SMTV finally getting news for sucess. This would mean that SMT has a significance to Nintendo, and they could very well want it in Smash, especialy since SMTV was one of the first games confirmed for the NX, alongside Dragon Quest XI S. Now, somthing that goes against Demi-Fiend is competition from other Sega characters, but I still feel that he's the most likely of them.

Want: 100%

Shin Megami Tensei Nocturne feautring Dante from the Devil May Cry series is my favorite game of all time, and SMT of itself is my second favorite series after Touhou, so yeah, I like it a lot, needless to say more, and i would especialy like it if the protagonist of my favorite game of all time joined Smash. I love Nocturne as a game for many reasons. One of those is the battle system. Nocturne introduced the press turn system to the SMT series, and it's an absolutely amazing fighting system that needs you to be on guard against every strong enemies. On top of that, SMT is one of the few jrpg series where buffs and debuffs are absolutely needed to win without an extreme ammount of pain, so you'll have to keep up with everything, weaknesses, resistances, aborbs, nulls, and buff levels to be able to win. So yeah, it's very fun. But on top of that, Nocturne also have one of the best atmospheres of any games I played, it easily rivalise Metroid in term of atmosphere when both are at their best. The game also gives you a very interesting philosophical debat, which just requires to think and choose, with the greatness of this choice being that no choice is wrong, it's just what you believe is right. And the soundtrack is fantastic. And the game is incredibly beautifull for a 2003 PS2 game, mainly thanks to the artstyle of the game that just makes it gorgeous, even more so in Nocturne HD, and it also makes the character stand out a lot thanks to their great design. But this isn't just about Nocturne, this is also about Demi-Fiend, and he would have one hell of a movesert for sure, with every physical and magical skills he can learn, he would have an amazing moveset, and very fun. He could also have an incredibly sick trailer, one I imagined would have the smash roster be on the cliff about to fight Galeem and Darkhon, but then Demi-Fiend kills both deities with Gaea Rage, and the recoil of the attack makes the cliff colapsa, and the sea in front of it part, and reveal Demi-Fiend walking towards the Smash roster, with Joker and Bayonetta having a shocked loko right before he just jumps to them and starts fighting the entire roster all at once. But yeah, Demi-Fiend is one of my most wanted, he's number 2 and only behind Reimu for me.

"I wanna become a God"

Chance: 0%

On the other hand, we have Nahobino, the protagonist that took twitter by storm with his fabulous design. Now, Nahobino has one big problem when it comes to his chances, which is that Shin Megami Tensei V has yet to release, while the dlc was chosen back in 2019. And while NIntendo knew of SMTV, and while it's possible that they asked Atlus for an early copy to put the Nahobino in Smash, there's the problem that SMTV was likely not far enough in developement at the time, which is a problem that Nocturne HD did not really have since it's an HD remaster, while also having a very similar effect in term of marketing, which is why I think that Nahobino isn't hapening, but that Demi-Fiend could happen.

Want: 95%

While it's not as high as Demi-Fiend's want score for pretty obvious reasons, one of them being that Shin Megami Tensei V isn't out yet so i cannot know if I'm going to love the game as much as Noctunre, even if that's very likely going by trailers (just saying, but SMTV has an amazing sound design, it really is amazing how great the game sounds, and it's not just the music, which was expected to be good, every sfx are incredible). And while I don't know how much I will like SMTV, It's also my most anticipated game so yeah, I think it's going to be pretty good, and I'm not against it being represented in Smash at all. On top of that, Nahobino looks incredibly sick, and looks like he would be a super cool fighter with his laser sword and magic. So yeah, Nahobino would be super cool for me, even if he's not my most wanted SMT character.

Nominations

Senator Armstrong x everything I got from this

Predictions

Saber: 8.4%

Euden: 12.4%

Fantasy Blue: 9.1%

 

[Sari]

Music post

Demi-fiend

Spoiler: SMT: III Music

Since SMT: V isn't out and there are no clear rips of the soundtrack yet, I'm just going to post one of the trailers to compensate.

-----

Abstaining for today.

Saber: 9.00%
Euden: 14.00%
Gran: 5.00%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x5

 

[Flyboy]

Demifiend & Nahobino
Chance: 15%
I'm combining their chance ratings because I see them in basically the same position, which is the position I see SMT in as a whole. I think it's not unreasonable to think that our final rep would be a Sega fighter, especially from a very influential RPG series like SMT that has a ton of history in the gaming industry and with Nintendo. SMTV may only now be finally coming out, but it was one of the first games ever announced for the Nintendo Switch. You know what else was one of the first games announced for the Switch? Dragon Quest 11. Before that, SMT games have been all over Nintendo consoles outside of a brief foray onto the PS2. Sega and Atlus are already working with Smash, so they're prime candidates here. Plus, with demon summoning and morality mechanics there's a lot of interesting gimmicks that Sakurai can pull from to represent the unique gameplay styles of these games. The issue really is down to there only being one slot and hundreds of possibilities that could fill it. As was said earlier, Monster Hunter, Travis, and others all had the seemingly-perfect timing and yet didn't make it into the pass, and others that still seem perfect like Adol haven't made it into Smash in ANY way. So who knows? Still, I think that if we're looking at Sega picks on their own, an SMT rep makes a ton of sense.

Demifiend Want: 75%
I admit, I'm not a huge fan of SMT. I've played the SNES original, I've played Nocturne, I've played some of Digital Devil Saga and some of 4, and I've played Devil Survivor 2. They're good games to be sure, but I find their philosophy to be extremely un-fun to experience and I found the overall stories to be lacking in various ways. Nocturne gets a lot of praise but I found it to be a muddy experience held together by fantastic atmosphere. Still, that's fine! Because in Smash, what Demifiend would be bringing would be atmosphere. The dude has a killer design and I really, really want a post-apocalyptic city of some kind in Smash. Add in the banging metal tunes from Nocturne and you have a challenger pack that would be super fun and super unique.

Nahobino Want: 90%
Okay, this sounds crazy, but...I actually don't mind "shill picks" and never have. The only reason Corrin was so frustrating was because he was a "shill pick" from a game that disappointed a lot of people and was from a series that was overstaying its welcome. Nahobino isn't any of that - yes, SMTV hasn't released yet but he would represent SMT as a whole giving us a brand new series and world in Smash, and I'm going to be honest? I think he looks ****ing awesome. That beautiful long hair, a badass laser sword, summoning demons, and that glowing aesthetic? Look, Astral Chain got deconfirmed, I gotta get my cool cyberpunk glow from somewhere! We would get that aforementioned post-apocalyptic stage, and even though I'm not really an SMT fan I can't help but be super into SMTV because of how cool Nahobino is! The trailers make the game seem awesome, too. So yeah, if we get an SMT rep, I hope it's him.

Nominations: Corvo xMax

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Nahobino

25% Chance

Nahobino has everything going for them. They are from a big switch exclusive third party that Nintendo could easily shill. It just… makes sense.

Where have I heard that before?
The comparisons to Travis or Monster Hunter, while not a death knell, are certainly something to keep in mind. I personally gave Travis around an 80% right before his Mii Costume, expecting him to be the next Bayonetta of sorts. I also said if we got a Capcom character, I would lean Monster Hunter. So yeah, I am a little hesitant to go all in because the last two times we shot for a third party shill rep, it failed. But, hey, third times the charm?
SMT V has been in development for a long time and has been delayed a ton. If recency is an issue, we know Sakurai gets development assets to work with, as he did with Byleth. I would not be surprised if Sakurai did get development info for Nahobino if that is the case. Granted, the situations are a bit different, Byleth is not a third party. But given how long SMT V has been in development for the switch as a switch exclusive, I would give it a pass.

It is clear that Nintendo has a vested interest in SMT, and ahs for a while. They pushed it on the 3DS, they made TMS, and most importantly, look how they handled SMT V. It was one of the first big announcements for the switch. They gave it a spotlight appearance at E3. For their first partner direct, it was the big selling point game. I feel like Nintendo clearly sees SMT as a series with a lot of potential.

SMT itself has a strong legacy. It has been around since the 80s and is an old school RPG with tons of spinoffs. One of which overtook the series and got in Smash first. At least in my opinion, considering Joker a SMT rep is a stretch. There is zero SMT content in smash that came with Joker. No music, no spirits, not even a Jack Frost mii hat. Heck, the series is labelled PERSONA in smash. I doubt Nahobino or Demi Fiend would be penalized for that.

Taking down that argument aside, SMT does indeed have a strong legacy and has built a solid Nintendo connection. I think the series is a solid pick. If we had to go with a shill pick, I would bet on Nahobino.

Abstain Want

Look, I debated giving this a lower score because if I am being honest, Nahobino would be a very middling finale. A shill rep swordsman that is pushing a new game? Why would Nintendo ever do that?

Sarcasm aside, yeah. While I would not mind Nahobino so long as they are fun, I could do without the salt by proxy. Byleth’s reveal was fatiguing. The amount of salt I saw thrown around was exhausting. The Byleth backlash cause a backlash to the backlash, where any legit criticism was shouted over. I would rather not deal with that for a character I do not really like. I know Rean would be as bad of a finale if not worse, but at least I love Trails of Cold Steel. At least I can say I played the games and I can back him up. Nahobino I am flying blind.

Demi Fiend

15% Chance

This would have been lower without the Nocturne remaster. But even still, I personally think that if Nintendo did want to push SMT, they would go with Nahobino. It’s lined up as one of their bigger holiday titles, it’s clear Nintendo wants the series to grow. Putting the new hotness in makes sense to me.

Most of what I said about SMT applies here. It has a legacy that dates way back. Nintendo has a vested interest in the series. If they did not go with Nahobino, Demi Fiend is the most sensible choice. He translates the best to smash and is the most iconic. I just guess at the end of the day, I am more confident in Nintendo and Atlus Pushing Nahobino.

Abstain want

Time for one of my little confessions. Nocturne has been on my back log for a while now. I have had multiple chances to play it, but I have been pushing it off. It seems every time I consider playing it, I just play a different JRPG. Heck, I am probably going to end up playing SMT V before it at this rate. SMT has cool music, but it did not hook me the hardest. Maybe if I got around to playing Nocturne I would feel more of a connection, but right now? I just…don’t.

Kiryu x 20

 

[GoodGrief741]

Oh no he's hot

Chance: 20%
Shin Megami Tensei is a long-running franchise of JRPGs. They have fallen somewhat under the radar but their sales numbers are nothing to sneeze at and they've always been well received. They're also hugely innovative with stuff like a morality system and a sci-fi/post-apocalyptic environment being firsts for RPGs and doing the whole monster catching genre a decade before Pokemon. And they've been - for the most part - loyal to Nintendo. I think with all that baggage, plus the fact that SMTV is one of the first Switch games announced and one of the biggest Switch exclusives for 2021 means SMT is in a great position to parlay all of that into a fighter.

The way I see it, there are three ways SMT representation in Smash could go. 1. They pick Nahobino because he's the latest, he's got the most promotional pull, and he's probably gonna go down as the protagonist of the best selling game in the series. 2. They pick Demi-Fiend because he's the protagonist of the currently best selling game in the series. 3. They do a Hero and add several characters as alts (Nahobino, Flynn, Aleph and the guy from the first game probably, as Demi-Fiend is the one brawler so he wouldn't fit). Nahobino gets in in two of the scenarios, so imo he's the frontrunner. As for which one it is, it really depends on whether they can make it work animations-wise. Personalities shouldn't be an issue so it's really a matter of whether their design differences pose an issue (like if Nahobino uses his hair to attack idk) and whether they wanna do it.

As for whether Nahobino is even possible given his game will probably release after the character, given SMTV was announced in 2017 there was definitely a finalized design for him circa late 2019. There wouldn't be much of a need for anything else other than a list of demons he can summon (which already existed beforehand). As for whether they'd pick a character whose game wouldn't release until after the character was announced, 1. Nintendo's definitely not past that kind of tone deafness, 2. SMTV probably got delayed because of COVID, and 3. even if it didn't that's totally a promotional window, it's not like they're adding the character 2 years after the game's release cough*Pokemon*cough. I understand reservations but personally I think it's doable.

Want: 90%
Normally I'd abstain or give a low score because shill but Nahobino is an exception. There are few ways to **** this up. He has a fantastic design that's up there with my favorites in the series (though no one will ever beat the king, Man from Strange Journey). With the design passing muster, everything else would just be SMT standard, which is to say awesome. An actual summoner moveset (instead of the travesty Joker got) would be fun and unique no matter which protagonist is the face of it. The music would be haunting yet enjoyable. Hell I watched the Treehouse demo and post-apocalyptic sand-covered Tokyo is already more appealing as a stage than most locales in the franchise and that's saying a lot. I'm leaving it at 90% because there's a possibility that SMTV sucks (I thought Fates looked cool before release and here we are now) but as a fan of the franchise if he has to be the rep it's a no-brainer.

Demi-Fiends Never Cry

Chance: 10%
The other SMT protagonist. Barring a small percentage that we get Flynn or Nanashi as the "we're going with the latest" pick, he's the only one that would realistically get in over Nahobino. SMT3 got a Switch port (which I hear sucked?) to promote/get new fans into SMT. That says a lot about their confidence in Nocturne's status and fan adoration. However the reason I'm not very confident in Demi-Fiend is how nonstandard he is for SMT. He's the one brawler in a series that commonly stars swordies. He's like picking a Castlevania rep that doesn't wield a whip or a Mega Man rep that isn't a Mega Man, it just feels like a suboptimal way to represent the franchise. And from a practical, moveset standpoint it would impede them from doing a Hero deal which is something that I think would appeal to Atlus and Sakurai. But it's still a possibility and Demi-Fiend's punchiness would make him stand out from the crowd of anime swordfighters.

Want: 50%
Confession time: Nocturne is my least favorite SMT. I'd love the franchise getting representation so I'd take him no questions asked but his game of origin makes him the least appealing avenue for it to happen. He'd also likely come with a stage set in the Vortex World which isn't a very appealing setting imo and pales in comparison to the likes of the Kingdom of Mikado, Tokyo Millennium, or the Schwarzwelt.

Noms: Giygas
Gacha day prediction: Saber will get an 11.7% because there is no God, Euden will get an 8.54% because of the existence of Europe, and Gran & Djeeta will get a 4.23% because Smash fans know only of Katarina and that's it.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Arle Nadja/Concept: Phantasy Star newcomer pre-Demi-Fiend/Nahobino

Octoling x438
[Rerate] Louie x415
Mii Costume: 2B x390
Pyramid Head x355
Meat Boy x305
Junpei (Zero Escape) x302
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x295

300 - 251

Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x280
Corvo Attano x265
Tetra x260

250 - 201

Senator Armstrong x245
Ori x225
Gunvolt x220

200 - 151

Stage: Bowser's Castle x192
Ratchet & Clank x190
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Boss: Rayquaza x180

150 - 101

Echo (Bowser) x148
[Rerate] Kiryu x145
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x138
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Boss: Ender Dragon x133
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x125
Stage: Tetris x120
D.Va x115
Fulgore x112
[Rerate] Gene x110
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x105

100 - 51

Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Soma Cruz x73
Echo (Olimar) x66
[Rerate] Eggman x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
[Rerate] Sora x39
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Lugia x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
Off The Hook x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse Faden x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
DJ Octavio x5
Firebrand x1

Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku wins its tie for seventh place, sending Concept: Danganronpa protagonist away for its execution.

Tetra plunders 250 noms.

Ori hops past 200 noms.

Concept: Next game is not a reboot crosses 50 noms.

Lugia soars to 25 noms.

 

[SneakyLink]

Question: How are spirit events taken into account assuming said franchise had 0 content beforehand?

I am asking because Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin is getting spirits this weekend.

As for Demi-Fiend and Nahobino, I will abstain as I'm not too familiar with the SMT series.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Question: How are spirit events taken into account assuming said franchise had 0 content beforehand?

I am asking because Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin is getting spirits this weekend.

As for Demi-Fiend and Nahobino, I will abstain as I'm not too familiar with the SMT series.

We usually consider Spirit Events to disconfirm the characters that are spirited in them. Though I think people are still free to nominate them if they really want them rated. Does that answer your question?