Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Perkilator]

Reshare to scare Nelson

Abstain on Chief. Cash Banooca, though?

Chance: I don't even care anymore
I was hoping Crash would be revealed at E3 this year. With Kazuya having been revealed instead, it did make me a little bit sad even though I like Kazuya. Since this whole DLC has been one unpredictable thing after another, no character is guaranteed. Especially not Crash (or Master Chief, for that matter).

Want: 100%
I'd do 106% but that wouldn't count. Simply put, I love the orange marsupial. I'm not giving up hope until Vol. 2 ends and he's a no-show (like with Sora).

Phoenix Wright: 60%
Amaterasu: 30%

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x2
[Rerate] Sora x3

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Just dropping by with some appropriately themed art for today.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[DanganZilla5]

A space marine and his bandicoot

Scores for both:
Chance - 5%
Want - 100+++

I'm gonna discuss these two at the same time since, to be frank, I'm no longer confident in the big boys. Master Chief and Crash are two iconic western characters so it would have been the perfect time to reveal them at E3. Now there are some people that bring up the possibility that due to the pandemic the last character had to be pushed back when originally there was going to be a double reveal. That is a real possibility but I have to bring up the question: Why couldn't they just at least show a CGI trailer for CP11? Even if they don't have gameplay footage to show, I can't picture Nintendo not showing CP11 at E3 if they did get the rights to someone like Master god dam Chief.

And speaking of Chief I know some people will bring up Vergeben and frankly I don't trust him. Now this is different from when people called him a phony when Minecraft didn't get anything in the base roster because it's clear that at that time Vergeben did have legit sources, judging by his predictions for the base game. And for the record I was not one of the people that called him a liar for that. I do believe that he did hear talks surrounding Steve that were happening throughout 5 years, which is enough time for it to get leaked and I was confident in Minecraft being DLC anyway. But here's the thing: He was mostly correct for the base game only. Aside from Hero and eventually Steve, Vergeben has barely guessed any of the DLC characters so far without getting any help from other insiders. It's clear as day that his sources have ran out and he claimed that Master Chief was going to be at E3 last month just to get one last moment of attention. What a ******* thing to do right before a major event like that.

So going back on track, Smash has had a history of underwhelming last choices and that has been a consistent pattern so while I want to believe that Ultimate will end on a high note, the evidence is not there for that scenario. Now I'm not saying that it's impossible for the last pick to be a big one, but honestly I'll stick to my gut feeling because I've been burnt many times by Smash so I know better than to expect a hype character to be last. That kind of sounds sad when I put it that way, but it's true. At this point the "frontrunners" are the niche third parties and several first parties, not the widely famous third parties.

But with all that said, I'll gladly eat my words if either Master Chief or Crash ends up being the last character. Both of them would be an exceptional way to end this game and I want both of them a lot. Crash is my most wanted as I have a lot of memories with him and his games and Master Chief would summon waves of hype trains. I want Master Chief because I think we are overdue for a FPS rep, I think everything in the challenger pack from the moveset to the music to the stage would all be fantastic, plus Halo would just be a huge, huge deal for Smash. As for Crash, if you want to know my personal history with him check out my previous rating. Just know that I care a lot about the goofball.

Predictions:
Phoenix - 22%
Amaterasu - 14%

Noms: Pyramid Head x20

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining on Hollow Knight from the Hollow knight series game.

Cave Story protagonist
Chance: who knows
Want: 55%
I think Cave Story is a very good game.
Having it be represented in Smash would be cool.

Reimeme
Chance: some number between zero and one hundred
Want: 65%
Back when people were first pushing for Reimu's inclusion in Smash, I thought they were just memeing. But after thinking about it for a bit, it does make sense. Mainly the fact that her series has been around for 25 years and it has a crapload of games, and it seems to be pretty popular in Japan.
Anyway the point I'm trying to make is that I think she deserves to be in, and I'd be happy with her inclusion. Touhou music in Smash? Sign me up!

Crash prediction: (probably 20% or something)
Chef prediction: 5%

Noms: DJ Octavio x however many I earned

 

[BowserKing]

Master Chief

Chance: 5%. Given that Banjo and Kazooie and Steve are in the game, Master Chief’s Chance is quite low, and i don’t see him in the fighter’s pass. He could show up as a Mii Costume, but even that is a hope shot.

Want: 55% Master Chief would be fun to play as, and I can see Master Chief in a match against Samus, Ridley, Banjo and Kazooie and Steve. Overall, Master Chief would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 50%. Crash still has a lot going for him, including representing a company not in yet, a very popular character and him getting some new games recently. I would not be surprised if Crash joined the fight in the fighter’s pass.

Want: 95%. Crash would defiantly be fun to play as, and I can see him face off against, we’ll all of the Smash Bros fighter’s. But for example, I can see him, Mario and Sonic in a free for all. Overall, Crash would make an excellent Smash Bros fighter.

Prediction: Phoenix (15%) and Amaterasu (10%)

Noms: 5 for Lugia

 

[fogbadge]

ah the mean green mother from outer space and the orange guy

abstain, i think i know enough to do the write up but i dont want to as i dislike both of them.

noms go to spirits events continue after the pass

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Master Chief

Chance: 5% - I can't say I'm too confident in The Chief anymore. Post-E3 effect hits a lot of characters hard, and with Smash's history of underwhelming final reveals confidence just isn't there. Furthermore, Microsoft already got a character this pass, and everything Chief had to trump it and claim the elusive double dip is gone. How doeshave some small sparks of hope though. There's the Game Awards Gambit and the Theory of the Missing Banjo. Sakurai mentioned that it will be much longer than normal until we get our final character, so this really could push all the way to The Game Awards, and there's no way someone like this loser's gonna be the big Game Awards pick, especially with the last two being heavy hitters. On the more tinfoil hat side (take this with a grain of salt) The Game Awards are being held at a stadium owned by Microsoft this year (so they could have a huge hand in the event) along with Vergeben's Chief information he heard, which could've been for FP11 instead. Though with how stone gated Nintendo's been keeping Smash information, the era of leakers is over. So overall, Chief has the pedigree, but at this point way too many things need to fall into place to make him happen, which I wouldn't put any money towards.

Want: 80% - One of the two or three characters with no Nintendo presence that I'd actually love to see, Master Chief would be a joy to see in Smash! He'd be a fantastic way to end Smash Ultimate and comes with both awesome lore and a toolkit with tons of variety! Futhermore, it'd be nice to end off Smash with a GOOD pick for once (at least in recent years. Olimar was a FANTASTIC final pick for Brawl). While I've personally never played Halo myself, the historical significance of the franchise has more than earned it a spot, and he would be an FPS rep that both The East and West would appreciate! Plus, if The Chief gets in now, that all but guarentees we get Dragonborn next game, so that is a huge plus!


Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 15% - I do have a little more confidence in Crash, though a lot of what hurts The Chief hurts Crash as well. Though with Namco getting a character, the whole "Only companies that got characters in FP1 will get them in FP2" theory, so Activision could easily sneak in and get the last slot (though something tells me they'd want an earlier one). If the theory of the Missing Banjo rings true, Crash could've been our final character at the end of the presentation has COVID not delayed things, and unlike The Chief, Crash doesn't have to worry about getting the elusive Double Dip. Though Crash negotiations (like Steve's) might've taken multiple years, and there's only a two-three year gap between the beginning of Crash's revival and FP2 negotiations being wrapped up. So honestly there might not have been enough time. Still, that's more just pessimism talking. Crash's revival isn't any time soon, and thanks to the actions of a Toys for Bob employee all of the new Crash (and Spyro) games are coming to Switch, so there;s plenty for Nintendo to promote! Let's not forget when Nintendo promoted Crash and Spyro with Mario and their other cartoony heavy hitters! Honestly, while the deck is now stacked against Crash, I think he could still find his way in!

Want: 100% - One of my most wanted characters, and definitely a fantastic way to end off Smash! We've really been lacking in Cartoony characters in the DLC, and if we don't count Plant (who's more of a base game latecomer) only 2 out of the 10 currently revealed fighters have a cartoony design. Crash would add some much-needed variety in that regard! Furthermore, I've had positive memories ever since I Crash's first GBA game as a child, and I always thought he'd be a super fun addition to the cast! And Now that we have Mario and Sonic together, along with tons of other mascots, Crash feels like he's missing! He's got a strong legacy, tons of Nintendo history, and colorful universe full of fantastic ideas for content, what's not to love?! Crash for Smash!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xAll

Predictions:
Phoenix Wright - 35.26% - Phoenix is honestly in the best spot he's ever been in, with all of his barriers broken down!
Ameterasu - 16,33% - Ameterasu benefits from a lot of what Phoenix does, but with Capcom having no current plans for her franchise I can't imagine she'll get quite the scores Phoenix does.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Wonky ****, available at 9:13, why 9:13? BECAUSE WONKY **** DOESN'T GET TIMEZONES!

Chance: 20% Call me crazy with these absurdly high scores of late but I'm feeling risky lmao. Crash is easily one of, if not the most discussed characters when it comes to Smash speculation and for good reason, he used to be massive even in Japan back in the day and now even managed to crawl back from the dead with the N. Sane trilogy, having also gotten 2 other highly successful games since then showing no signs of slowing down, Crash also has a unique thing going for him I feel, in Japan, Crash is given a more cutesy design, think Disney instead of Looney Tunes, so there might be concerns about 2 seperate models to compensate for this but Crash actually has been redesigned a tad to find a perfect blend between tge 2 art styles

Want: 30% I haven't played Crash in like 15 years so the nostalgia factor isn't that strong, I think the dude himself is adorable and he'd be neat if done properly but I have a major concern. Mainly, his moveset. I cannot for the life of me see him doing anything interesting with his normals, an aspect of characters people often overlook for some reason which I find just as if not more important than their specials, the reason I was initially disappointed with K.Rool was that he looked rather boring... Until we saw his more fun attacks like his ftilt and up smash in that public demo. I want to believe he'd be fun but I just need some proper convincing which sadly nobody seems to be able to do. Luckily, Crash himself is as cute as a button and I always get a laugh of Wonky ****, a dumb joke made during some Crash LPs I watched out of boredom one day.

Once a meme, now a dream

Chance: 20% I just can't shake the feeling that Chief still has a solid chance fespite E3 having come and gone, Smash doesn't typically end on a high note but I feel that as a swan song to Ultimate, Chief would just make sense, especially with the Finishes the Fight tagline even if those aren't a thing in Japan outside of Ryu and Kazuya to my knowledge. People would cite a lack of popularity in Japan as an argument but I really don't think that's as big of a deal as it's made out to be as we've gotten multiple characters who's popularity primarily came from the west before and Japan still has a dedicated enough fanbase to warrant an anime and an outcry to replacing Chief's seiyuu. As for the fsct that MS would be doubledipping in the same pass... I don't think Nintendo really cares, they've given multiple companies multiple fighters over the company that actually helped make Smash 4 and Ultimate too and it's not like the royalties will cost more either

Want: 100% I got my hands on the collection as a birthday gift 2 and a half years ago and while The Dreaded Backlog has prevented me from clearing it all, I really enjoyed my time with Reach, 1 and 2, especially 1, so I'd very much be ok with this, we don't have a dedicated gunwielder beyond our arm cannons so Chief would be incredibly unique in a way I'm very curious to see, will we get something like the Needler, which doesn't do much damage but if the same target gets shot repeatedly, they explode? A more traditional assault rifle which judging by Joker, is fair game? Will we get some melee weapons too like the Energy Sword and Gravity Hammer? There's so many possibilities that had I not been a fan, this would still be incredibly exciting to me.

Split noms between Soma and Junpei

 

[Lyncario]

Scrimblo Bimblo the Lovable Scrunko and Shooter American White Dude

"Hey plumber boy, your worst nightmare has arrived"

Chance: 5%

Crash is a character who's biggest claim to being in is being a big iconic character, and having a lot of fan demand. Huh, this sounds a bit familiar, a bit like Dante... Oh. That's doesn't sound great for Crash, considering Dante's recent fate as a mii. Not only that, but Dante also had somehting else going for him being that he's a Capcom character, and not only does Capcom already has content in Smash as characters, but also no new character as dlc (which makes them the only 3rd party company like that in Ultimate if you count Atlus as part of Sega), and being known to being easy to negociate with, hence Ryu showing up in so many places that people do Ryu number to calculate how many degrees of crossovers a character is linked to Ryu. Now, compared to Capcom, Crash is owned by Activision, who are notoriously harder to negociate with, and have no content yet in Smash. And while them having made various exclusive deals with Nintendo like DK and Bowser showing up in Skylanders, a character having a crossover with a Nintendo character does not guarantee them at all, see Dead or Alive on the 3ds having Samus apearing as a cameo on a Metroid stage. Now, I want to talk about the Toys for Bob and CoD situation, and for Smash it most likely means nothing, even if Crash does go back into a void of nothingness when it comes to new games, as the characters for pass 2 were chosen a while ago, and while you could argue that if Crash was in Smash then Activision wouldn't have reduced Toys for Bob as a Call of Duty fodder developper, there's stuff like how Megaman was added in Smash 4 at a time where Capcom did not use him anymore (weird how mnay comparaison with Capcom characters I made in this). Something else is that the pass is way more likely to end on something more mild than Crash, considering how we already got 3 bombshells, which is already more than what I though we would have got. But anyway, Crash is in what I call the pausible but not likely either.

Want: 80%

Crash would be cool to have in Smash. He has good games and could have a pretty good moveset that doesn't have to rely on spinning that much. While I'm against the belief that Crash is super likely, especialy since in some ways he's very much like Danten but it doesn't change the fact that I still like him as a character and his game series, especialy since he's the most wanted of two of the coolest guys I met online. So yeah, Crash would be pretty neat, even kinda awesome in a way.


"Master Chief, you mind telling me what you're doing on that ship?" "Sir. Finising this fight."

Chance: 0.5%

Addresing the Ender Dragon in the room, Steve is already in this fighter pass, and just like Master Chief, he's a Microsoft character. And while I don't believe that it's a full on disconfirmation, it's still goes against him in my opinion, because I just don't see a double dipping hapening from a company that isn't Nintendo. And while in theory there's no reason for it to not happen, in practice, I'll believe it whne it will happen. An argument you can see from some Master Chief fans is that Microsoft wouldn't let Nintendo put Banjo and Steve in Smash without also getting Master Chief in, but like, yeah they totaly can, especialy since Capcom let Megaman and Ryu be in Smash without someone from Resident Evil or a Monser Hunter (I do a lot of compariason with Capcom today, huh). Microsoft isn't entitled to just have more characters in Smash because that's just not how that work. Now, outside of that, Master Chied in Smash does make a lot of sense, with him being a big character from a company that already has stuff in Smash and who also has a very good relationship with Nintendo, so I wouldn't see it ad impossible if it wasn't for there already being a Microsoft character in this pass, and while Master Chief being the last dlc with "Master Chief finish this fight" would be a pretty legendary way to end Ultimate as it was already said many times, Nintendo doesn't tend to end with a massive character for Smash at any point, with the biggest we got. But otherwise, yes, it would make sense, and I would even call him likely for the next Smash or a third pass, especialy since the fan request for him started around the time that Crash got, which is once again making him comparable to Dante in that regard. Is every big character left Dante in a way or what? But moving on, he would also represent fps, which would also be big and something that Sakurai would like, but we know that the characters in fp2 aren't in his control outside of saying that he can make them. Also, while there's leaks of the Master Chief Collection coming to Switch, and also leakers who arguably said that he was in Smash, I really doubt that it's right, and the MCC getting ported so late wouldn't really change stuff at this point. So anyway, Master Chief gets a low score from me, mainly because of Steve.

Want: 50%

To me, first person shooters is pretty much a whatever genre that does not interest me outside of TF2 and arguably Apex Legends, and even then for Apex what interest me is more the mobility you get in the game, I swear that a Apex game based on parcour would be amazing. But back to Master Chief, he would be whatever for me outside of him being big, partly because I really odn't care about his genre, but also because I don't have an Xbox and did not have one growing up (I did play the 360 that one of my older sister has but I mainly played Sonic and some party games on it) so no way to play Halo until the pc ports and well, I don't care about it. Because yes, Master Chief would be one big "ok I guess" character for me, but it's not like he would inherently be bad either.

Nominations:

Virtual idols like Miku x everything I got from that

Predictions:

Phoenix Wright: 15%

Amateratsu: 6.7%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Furry Dante

Chance: 0%
The window has closed on Crash as far as I'm concerned. He was just another in a long line of characters that seemed to have everything going for them and didn't get in.

I don't see the point in talking about what he had in his favor, we've all heard it countless times by this point and this is more a postmortem so instead I'll talk about why he didn't make it in. His popularity came too late to be noticed or factored in. Activision was a new company without ties to Smash and few ties to Nintendo. Crash is a Western character, and so far it looks like that's still very much an impediment. These are all obstacles that have been surpassed before and Crash certainly felt like a character that could surpass them but in the end the norm was stuck to.

I've seen a lot of talk regarding Sakurai's comment that "it'll be a while" before the next character, theorizing how it could indicate either a TGA reveal, a hyper complex character or one that was negotiated after everyone else. To put it kindly, I think it's just an innocuous comment that was taken out of proportion for reasons more related with wishful thinking than deduction. When I heard it it didn't sound like anything to me, after all, three months is "a while" and that's when we already expected the next fighter so I don't know why so many changed their minds suddenly. It's unthinkable to me that after years of having a new Smash fighter shown every Direct they suddenly skip one, as is the notion that they had Crash on the docket and said "nah, we're showing Kazuya Mishima at E3 instead".

We thought it was "Finishing the fight" but it was actually "Objective: Survive"

Chance: 0%
Frankly I'm shocked we're still rating him over a year after Steve got in. Feels like beating a dead horse. But yeah, this one too would've been at E3 and wasn't. Master Chief is certainly not getting revealed in a Nintendo Direct, that's for sure. He'd have a cool slogan for FP11, that's for sure, but slogans don't decide your odds.

Want: 100% (both)
It's unfortunate because these are both legends. Two of the biggest icons in gaming whose games left an indelible mark in history. And they're just kick-ass games as well. I've come to terms that they're not coming long ago. But hey, if I'm wrong, it's my gain.

Noms: Octoling
Phoenix Wright prediction: 34.86%
Amaterasu prediction: 5.33%

 

[Lionfranky]

I will pour my energy on Chief, so I will abstain on Crash.

Chance: 50%

Yeah call me crazy, but I see so many stuff going for his favor.

Let me tackle the elephant in the room. 343i community director.

How's the r/halo fam doing?

Trust me, I have no secret info or insight. But I've been poking at this and trying to rile up the community off and on for years. I'd love to see...

old.reddit.com

View attachment 321443

Yep. The same community director. He said this during FP2. So if you think Mojang's community manager's tweets don't count because she said that before FP2 was decided, then you should take both of his accounts since both of his statements were made during FP2.

But, I am going to be fair and call out some fishy stuff on our side.

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

I cut ties with once of my oldest sources. Ever since last year and the state of the world with work at home orders and digital events, their information has gotten spottier and spottier.

There's a lot of things that I never shared with anyone the source that I have parted with had heard. Things that I vetted and got either nothing back or that it wasn't quite right or plain wrong.

It had become a game of me having to mentally decide if anything is at all worth talking about or not. Hence why you might have noticed why I wasn't sharing some crazy amount of information last year.

Yes they still were getting things right. But the percentage of things that were wrong were so much higher.

For example, the Stranger of Paradise: Final Fantasy Origin information and Final Fantasy pixel remaster info came from them and neither were spot on since there was slightly incorrect information about both. I'm not sure if things were lost in translation or what, but I couldn't overlook that.

On the topic of Smash DLC, I reserve my right to not comment on that at the moment anyway. Clearly Master Chief was not the next character and it was Kazuya. The source that I split with was certain it was him after I checked with them who it was. I couldn't get back with my main source in time and they actually never wound up hearing who it was anyway. So I hedged my bets and lost. That's on me. I should have remained silent.

Me referencing and joking around with some commenter on here referencing lyrics from "We Are The Champions" was me having some fun tbh since it fit as a response after I got a rude comment and people were taking a GameXplain video as gospel that The Champions from BotW were next and I hadn't heard that whatsoever so I probably should have left well enough alone there but I did not and I know people took that the wrong way.

-snip

So, I would take Vergeben's leak with grain of salt as Nintendo seemed to tighten up security with possible leak bait.

Still, there is still King Zell who has solid record.

Halo might be coming to Nintendo switch

Halo is a military science fiction media franchise centered on a series of video games managed and developed by 343 Industries, a Division of Xbox Game Studios. Halo was originally developed by Bungie Studios. The series centers on an interstellar war between humanity and an alliance of aliens...

nintendosmash.com

He leaked Super Mario Maker 2, BOTW2 and The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening Remake. He leaked the date of the Feburary 2019 Direct close to a month in advance, and also leaked Boxboy for the Switch and dates multiple Indie presentations. He isn't the only leaker who hinted MCC port rumor.

I think this was before FP2 was decided. He came back and said that around time FP2 was settled.
Steve was in negotiation for long time. Who knows how similar the process is here?
He was also right that Microsoft and Nintendo would not announcement collaboration during event like VGA.
So, I think

Xbox head says he’s “open” to Game Pass coming to PlayStation and Nintendo

Xbox head Phil Spencer has said he is “open” to making Xbox Game Pass available on PlayStation and Nintendo consoles.

www.nme.com

Phil Spencer said he's open to bringing Gamepass to other platforms... yes even Playstation.
At least, both Nintendo and Microsoft declared that they are not competitors to each other anymore.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

Jeff Grub was told that everything on Phil Spencer's shelf meant something. That includes Switch.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

While some of his marks were off, he did accurately predict Gearbox acquisition and FF7 remake on PS+. This was his response to Switch on Phil Spencer's shelf.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Switch appeared during Microsoft's Game Stack event. Microsoft has hinted upcoming announcement with background items. Series S at Phil Spencer's shelf. Indiana Jones skull behind Todd Howard led to Indiana Jones game. Kojima figure leading to Xbox publishing Kojima game (This one is ongoing rumor, but still strong case).

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Nintendo says these portions of an Xbox biz dev exec's deposition in EpicvApple "reflect...competitively sensitive information about negotiations between Nintendo and Microsoft."

This is reason why I think Master Chief isn't off the table. So many people were caught on idea that a big hype character like him must be revealed during E3. But, have you forgotten the fact that freaking Cloud was revealed during general Direct? The two leakers I mentioned here back this notion.
King Zell said we shouldn't expect MS x Nintendo collaboration in event like VGA. So, that should include E3 as well.
Shpeshal Ed also said that we will see this during this fall, not summer.
Microsoft and Nintendo collaboration hasn't stopped at Steve.
They are preparing some big collaboration upcoming fall.

And there is another huddle that is constantly mentioned... Japan...

There is Halo anime.

It also ranked seventh in Blu-ray Disc rankings in Japan.

Speaking of anime, there is nice reference from certain anime.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Master Chief making at front cover of Famitsu.

There was outrage from Japanese fans over change of Master Chief voice actor.

There was even Japanese Halo 2 pro team that kicked Bungie's butt. Bungie commented how organized Japanese team was. One player was keeping a charged plasma pistol while other held a battle rifle. Their noob combo was consisted of at least two players. Bungie was actually surprised how effective they were. This was posted on Bungie.net, but I think all the records of old days are gone.

110k sales number for Halo 3 there is far from worst, considering circumstance. Seriously, it's not far from Banjo's sales there.

Heck, even Chinese criticized out a poster one of Chinese Sci-Fi movies for ripping off Master Chief.

So all in all, Halo is far from obscure series in Japan like many keep parroting. Is it popular there? No.
Would Japanese gamers with at least some knowledge recognize? Most likely. They say "oh Xbox guy!"
I can confidently say his case is nowhere near bad like Reimu or Doom Slayer.

Before someone says Halo is declining, Halo 5 still sold on par with previous entries.
It's still juggernaut especially in the U.S where Smash sells like hotcake.
Recent Halo Infinite showcase earned overwhelmingly positive feedbacks and erased last year's taint.
Still, there have been series that suffered far worse than Halo that still managed to get in.

Want: 100%

What can I say? There is nothing to hide the obvious.
I grew up with Halo. Halo: Combat Evolved was shocking and earthshattering experience for me.
I played plenty of shooters before that, but Halo really changed formula and fundamental.
So many new revolutionary mechanics that should've been in shooter genre were introduced here.
I still remember going through hype that was both Halo 2 and 3.
I remember playing Halo and several other games in video game club during high school.
I used to look at how other kids were playing Melee. But, I didn't pay attention at it enough.

It was during college time that I actually played Smash. I was focusing on Halo 3, so I got 360 and Halo 3.
But, my roommates insisted that I should get Smash Brawl so we can play together.
So, I bought Wii and Smash Brawl along with few other games.
We used to play both Smash Brawl and Halo 3 back to back. They disliked that I constantly picked Snake.

Master Chief in Smash would remind me of these friends that I lost contact with.

And his tagline would definitely be "Finish the fight." Just like Halo 3 trailer if any of you remember the hype back in the day.

He would be the most fitting character to end Ultimate. You can't get more perfect than this.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Master Chief

Chance: 5% - I can't say I'm too confident in The Chief anymore. Post-E3 effect hits a lot of characters hard, and with Smash's history of underwhelming final reveals confidence just isn't there. Furthermore, Microsoft already got a character this pass, and everything Chief had to trump it and claim the elusive double dip is gone. How doeshave some small sparks of hope though. There's the Game Awards Gambit and the Theory of the Missing Banjo. Sakurai mentioned that it will be much longer than normal until we get our final character, so this really could push all the way to The Game Awards, and there's no way someone like this loser's gonna be the big Game Awards pick, especially with the last two being heavy hitters. On the more tinfoil hat side (take this with a grain of salt) The Game Awards are being held at a stadium owned by Microsoft this year (so they could have a huge hand in the event) along with Vergeben's Chief information he heard, which could've been for FP11 instead. Though with how stone gated Nintendo's been keeping Smash information, the era of leakers is over. So overall, Chief has the pedigree, but at this point way too many things need to fall into place to make him happen, which I wouldn't put any money towards.

Want: 80% - One of the two or three characters with no Nintendo presence that I'd actually love to see, Master Chief would be a joy to see in Smash! He'd be a fantastic way to end Smash Ultimate and comes with both awesome lore and a toolkit with tons of variety! Futhermore, it'd be nice to end off Smash with a GOOD pick for once (at least in recent years. Olimar was a FANTASTIC final pick for Brawl). While I've personally never played Halo myself, the historical significance of the franchise has more than earned it a spot, and he would be an FPS rep that both The East and West would appreciate! Plus, if The Chief gets in now, that all but guarentees we get Dragonborn next game, so that is a huge plus!


Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 15% - I do have a little more confidence in Crash, though a lot of what hurts The Chief hurts Crash as well. Though with Namco getting a character, the whole "Only companies that got characters in FP1 will get them in FP2" theory, so Activision could easily sneak in and get the last slot (though something tells me they'd want an earlier one). If the theory of the Missing Banjo rings true, Crash could've been our final character at the end of the presentation has COVID not delayed things, and unlike The Chief, Crash doesn't have to worry about getting the elusive Double Dip. Though Crash negotiations (like Steve's) might've taken multiple years, and there's only a two-three year gap between the beginning of Crash's revival and FP2 negotiations being wrapped up. So honestly there might not have been enough time. Still, that's more just pessimism talking. Crash's revival isn't any time soon, and thanks to the actions of a Toys for Bob employee all of the new Crash (and Spyro) games are coming to Switch, so there;s plenty for Nintendo to promote! Let's not forget when Nintendo promoted Crash and Spyro with Mario and their other cartoony heavy hitters! Honestly, while the deck is now stacked against Crash, I think he could still find his way in!

Want: 100% - One of my most wanted characters, and definitely a fantastic way to end off Smash! We've really been lacking in Cartoony characters in the DLC, and if we don't count Plant (who's more of a base game latecomer) only 2 out of the 10 currently revealed fighters have a cartoony design. Crash would add some much-needed variety in that regard! Furthermore, I've had positive memories ever since I Crash's first GBA game as a child, and I always thought he'd be a super fun addition to the cast! And Now that we have Mario and Sonic together, along with tons of other mascots, Crash feels like he's missing! He's got a strong legacy, tons of Nintendo history, and colorful universe full of fantastic ideas for content, what's not to love?! Crash for Smash!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xAll

Predictions:
Phoenix Wright - 35.26% - Phoenix is honestly in the best spot he's ever been in, with all of his barriers broken down!
Ameterasu - 16,33% - Ameterasu benefits from a lot of what Phoenix does, but with Capcom having no current plans for her franchise I can't imagine she'll get quite the scores Phoenix does.

What’s the Theory of the Missing Banjo?

 

[DanganZilla5]

What’s the Theory of the Missing Banjo?

Basically the theory states that we might get a fan favorite as the last character. So far we haven't gotten a character in this pass that had demand on the same level as Banjo. Some characters that fit into this theory are Crash, Waluigi, Isaac, Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong ,etc.

 

[Perkilator]

Basically the theory states that we might get a fan favorite as the last character. So far we haven't gotten a character in this pass that had demand on the same level as Banjo. Some characters that fit into this theory are Crash, Waluigi, Isaac, Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong ,etc.

I hope that's the case, but you never know these days. Let's brace for impact either way.

 

[Jomosensual]

Double abstain

Ori x all

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Just a heads up, Caddicarus's Bandicoot Month video is Up. Is about the handheld Crash games.

Speaking of Crash.......... (abstaining on Chief, as i don't care about him)

Chance: 1%

Yea, quite a nosedive compared to the earlier ratings i gave him. I mean he's still super popular, has general Nintendo and non-Nintendo presence in gaming across multiple generations, is releveant in the current gaming landscape, and is popular and requested, why am i rating him so low suddenly?

Simply, put, he is too big to be revealed this late into Smash's reveal cycle of DLC.

I have mentioned this time and time again ever since we got Sephiroth instead. I could write a wall of text, but these previous posts i made are enough to explain:

If im honest i he is not FP9 i don't think he will be in. Crash is the kind of guy you put as the centerpiece, and Sephiroth being the VGA reveal makes me doubt that he will be in at this point.

He has great merits but the circumstances make me doubtful.

The problem with Crash isn't his lack of merit. He is a highly popular game character that comes from a very popular genre of games, is one of the few Western Ips with actual popularity, is requested by thousands and recognized by millions, and is present and accounted for in all the current game consoles.

But it was never about merit, it was about timing. Crash's revival simply came too late for it to matter to Smash. He started gaining traction again in '17, a few years after Smash Ultimate's Roster planning was complete (the game started with the project plan being finished by December of '15) and by the time Crash came back with an actually new game in the form of Crash 4, it was simply too late, as it was released after both FP1 and 2 had finished their development, and then you also have to combine the whole "working with a western third party isn't too easy" deal. Had Crash made a comeback just a few years prior, the story likely would have been a little bit different.

I honestly saw this coming after Sephiroth's reveal at the Game Awards, but i had my reservations in case he was revealed next, but no more.

I do NOT think Crash is dead again, but i do think he is not coming to Smash.

This isn't about "relevance" , it's timing.

Many of the characters people mention (K.Rool, Banjo) only further prove my point, because all of them were large requests from the Smash Ballot, which happened in '15 (the Ballot ended in October which was only 2 months before the Smash Ultimate Project Planning was completed) plus Phil Spencer's word about Banjo in Smash. Also we know that Steve's negotiations took almost 5 years according Daniel Kalpan (former MC production director). Smash games take a long time, and all of these events happened before Smash Ultimate started development, so they made these choices in advance. Im pretty sure all of these things happening years ago influenced Smash's roster, especially because they all basically happened during what was likely the roster being planned (Smash requests almost never influence the current games, they influence the FUTURE ones, which is why Smash Four's K.Rool support ended up helping for his inclusion in the next game)

Crash was still dead at the time, and Activision barely even flirted with the idea of bringing him back until at least a few months later, plus Activision never showed the same enthusiasm as Microsoft has when it comes to Smash (at least in public)

This is not so different from what happened to ARMS and Xenoblade in the base game, they may had stand a chance and not been for the fact that the game was well into development and it was simply too late for them in the base game. They managed to get a chance in DLC, but i don't think Crash will be as lucky.

It doesn't matter how "relevant" you are if you become relevant after Smash's roster plan has been finished, which is what im arguing about.


Another common misconception is the idea Castlevania got in Smash despite being "dead", but it's completely false. Castlevania was still alive during the early plannings of Ultimate, just not in the way most fans want to remember.

After the low sales of the DS Games (Dawn of Sorrow, Portrait of Ruin and Order of Ecclesia) and the bloated confusing timeline that it had, the series was rebooted into Lords of Shadow (which is the best selling CV game of all time), the most recent game was Lords of Shadow 2 in 2014, the same year as Smash For Wii U/3DS was released, and a year before Smash Ultiamte started being planned out (Nov of 2015) and as for Simon, he was a main playable character in Mirror of Fate for the 3DS in Twenty Thirtheen, so yeah, Castlevania was still pretty damn relevant. The same is true for Mega Man. Smash 4's roster was already decided by 2012, and Mega Man's last game was MM10, 2 years before so he was still in Capcom's mind, game cancellations notwithstanding.

Simon did not come into Smash existence in August 8th of '18, he was part of Smash's roster as soon as the game started development, and during those days it didn't seem as if Castlevania was going into a hiatus (it only became an accepted fact after the whole Konami Kojima drama)

IF Crash is in Smash, he already is part of the roster and we just haven't seen him yet, meaning that time timing may have late for Base Game but not for DLC, which wouldn't be a first (i mean i just mentioned how Xeno 2 and ARMS basically got a second chance thanks to this Fighter Pass) so i do admit there's till a decent chance, im just not counting on it.

TL;DR Crash's revival came in too late, had it happened JUST a few years mor even months 2015/2016, Crash probably would have been revealed at this point, plus with the whole Sakurai is not used to work with Western Companies, and Microsoft took a good while to cooperate (5 years people) i honestly believe Crash's circumstances were simply too much for him to get into Smash.

No matter if the last reveal is in the Game Awards (lol no) or a Direct, i just don't see why you would put this character dead last, especially when Smash is CONSISTENT in putting the least "hype" characters at the end. I think those who still think Smash is gonna end with a blast, let alone Crash, are gonna be in for a rude awakening.

Want: 100%

It's a shame, Crash was one of my childhood favorites, and helped shape my love of gaming as much as Mega Man, so to see him miss out on Smash Ultimate is a pain. Not helping is how none of FP2's character soften this blow at all for me, at least with FP1 i had Banjo.

I could write a wall of text explaining why i love Crash, but i already did it in the last rating and i don't feel like quoting myself again. Back to playing Crash games i guess.

 

[ArkSPiTFirE]

Master Chief
Chance: 2%
Want: 50%

Master Chief would be a monumental pick for Smash in terms of his Legacy in 21st Century gaming. For that reason, and the fact we already have Microsoft owned Steve in this pass, I think it's close to 0 chance he's getting picked last. That's not to say he doesn't stand a chance to ever join, I think he has potential in the future of Microsoft are really willing to pull in fans from Nintendo. However, I have to rate on the chances he's going to be the last, and I don't think we're ending the pass on such a big one. From a business perspective, leaving him to the end when interest will start to plumet is a bad move for Microsoft. That's why we got Steve second.

Crash Bandicoot
Chance: 15%
Want: 80%

I actually would love to see Crash. It gets mentioned a lot, but he is the PlayStation Icon to match Mario and Sonic from the 90s era. Having all three would tie Ultimate together as the best crossover game in history. He would also fit really well, he's a kwirky platformer with a fun personality. He has plenty of potential for moveset that's not just a spin attack, plenty of content to bring with him. Its just a strong pick in general. But the clincher is, he's owned by Activision and that's a hard wall to get over. When I think of Activision, I don't think of a company that likes to play ball with their properties, even for something with the following of Smash Ultimate. I don't think it's impossible, but again we're coming back to the problem of it being the last spot in the pass, and Ultimate. Acitivision wants those $$$, so if a deal was to be made, why not at the start of the pass when people will buy it from up to two years instead of in the last few months?

I could go lower for Crash, but it doesn't seem quite as out of reach as with Chief.

I would give any third party similar scores at this point. I'm pretty settled on the idea that it's going to be a Nintendo last pick again. This is both encouraging and discouraging, because they must have to break some sort of pattern or rule in order to bring out a first party that the fans actually want. I look at whats left and I think they surely must dip into Assist Trophies by now, but it's Nintendo so a Gen 8 Pokémon it probably is.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Basically the theory states that we might get a fan favorite as the last character. So far we haven't gotten a character in this pass that had demand on the same level as Banjo. Some characters that fit into this theory are Crash, Waluigi, Isaac, Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong ,etc.

Ah I see. I could see it happening, I’m biased towards Chief (I guess he fits). But I’d love to see Crash, Waluigi or Dixie too.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Basically the theory states that we might get a fan favorite as the last character. So far we haven't gotten a character in this pass that had demand on the same level as Banjo. Some characters that fit into this theory are Crash, Waluigi, Isaac, Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong ,etc.

I do think the Missing Banjo has to be a highly popular character that would be chosen purely for their demand. Chief is the XBox mascot first and foremost and would work even if no one was asking for him. Pyra was a frequent request but she was probably chosen because of other factors. Same with Steve.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Oh yeah give a moment of silence to Dragonborn who would have been rated today were it not for his untimely passing.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Reimu Hakurei/Quote/The Knight pre-Master Chief/Crash

Octoling x408
[Rerate] Louie x355
Mii Costume: 2B x350
Meat Boy x305
Pyramid Head x295
Junpei (Zero Escape) x290
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x260

250 - 201

Corvo Attano x250
Senator Armstrong x245
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x240
Tetra x230
Gunvolt x220

200 - 151

Stage: Bowser's Castle x192
Ori x190
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Ratchet & Clank x180
Boss: Rayquaza x175

150 - 101

Echo (Bowser) x143
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Boss: Ender Dragon x133
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
D.Va x115
Fulgore x112
[Rerate] Gene x110

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x100
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ghirahim x60
Soma Cruz x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
[Rerate] Eggman x39
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x30
[Rerate] Sora x26
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Donbe and Hikari x20
Off The Hook x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Ezio Auditore da Firenze x15
Lugia x15
Concept: Next game is not a reboot x15
Concept: Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
DJ Octavio x5
Firebrand x1

Octoling crosses 400 noms and I probably have to find someone else to nominate. Louie passes Mii Costume: 2B and ends the day in second place. Pyramid Head executes Junpei and takes fifth place.

Ori climbs past 150 noms.

Sora and Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass fight past 25 noms.

Today's new concepts are Next game is not a reboot and Bonus Stages to fill out the stage select screen, each with 15 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Crash Bandicoot and Master Chief

Chance for both: 0%
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Both of these guys were considered the frontrunners for this DLC. They seemed like they had everything going for them, yet nothing happened. If they were coming, they would've been announced at E3, but that didn't happen. Now that we have only one spot left, it seems like they got their chances killed. This is especially true for Crash, I feel, given Activision's recent changing of priorities to COD (apparently going so far as to change their ad email's name to "Call of Duty": as in, somebody got an ad for Tony Hawk from Call of Duty) makes his future less certain than we thought. As for Master Chief, yeah, Steve should've been proof enough he wasn't coming. Honestly, though, GoodGrief741 pretty much said everything I could've said on the matter. This really was a case of characters seemingly being likely, only to not happen. I know I don't have much here, but frankly, I got nothing else to add.

Abstain on want. I'm honestly pretty tired, so I can't really put this to words.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

 

[mynameisBlade]

As a huge fan of both of these characters, I'll say that even I can't see either of them making it now. Characters like these rely on the fact that Nintendo won't do what it needs to do as a business thereby supporting its own franchises. Maybe Crash and especially Master Chief were never on the table. I'll lend the last of my power to at least one of them, but the other doesn't have a chance in hell. (Boy would I love to be proven wrong though)

Crash chances = 20% - I'll always share my energy with Crash in the hopes that this very iconic character gets in, but it does seem like a fools errand at this point.

Master Chief chances = 0% - All I have to say for this beloved icon of western gaming is...that ain't it chief...

 

[fogbadge]

Oh yeah give a moment of silence to Dragonborn who would have been rated today were it not for his untimely passing.

surely shouting at the top of your lungs would be more apt?

 

[RileyXY1]

Crash Bandicoot and Master Chief

Chance for both: 0%
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Both of these guys were considered the frontrunners for this DLC. They seemed like they had everything going for them, yet nothing happened. If they were coming, they would've been announced at E3, but that didn't happen. Now that we have only one spot left, it seems like they got their chances killed. This is especially true for Crash, I feel, given Activision's recent changing of priorities to COD (apparently going so far as to change their ad email's name to "Call of Duty": as in, somebody got an ad for Tony Hawk from Call of Duty) makes his future less certain than we thought. As for Master Chief, yeah, Steve should've been proof enough he wasn't coming. Honestly, though, GoodGrief741 pretty much said everything I could've said on the matter. This really was a case of characters seemingly being likely, only to not happen. I know I don't have much here, but frankly, I got nothing else to add.

Abstain on want. I'm honestly pretty tired, so I can't really put this to words.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

And they even shifted Toys for Bob to be a COD supplementary studio.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining on both for now since I don't think I can fit this in my schedule.
Ok nevermind, I may still have time.

Master Chief
Chance: 1%
I have had my doubts since the Steve as I'm not expecting a company double-dipping in the same pass. Even then, it's hard expecting such a glass-shattering reveal to happen post E3 and I don't think they will stretch the waiting period out till TGA as well. I get some people are banking on a Swan Song for Ultimate but they should remember that at some earlier point Byleth was planned to be the Swan Song. Hype is subjective and the team doesn't go out of its way to choose the character that would get the least people excited but characters like Master Chief just make more sense to be confirmed for the pass as early as possible. Just a better decision buisness wise.

Chance: 1%
Everyone and their grandma seems to ride the Chief hypetrain but I'm just not part of it. I have no attachment to Halo or Master Chief. There are only a few specific characters that I would be excited for. Perhaps I'm too fatiqued on hearing about him, plus I'd prefer if Verge didn't have his last laugh in the end. And Gordon Freeman is the superiour FPS rep anyway

Coot Bandicrash
Chance: 3%
Just like with Chief, I think his ship has largely sailed. Though I do think there's slightly more hope for him since he'd be from a new company and he's still probably a tier below Chief on the "How big of a deal is this character" scale which I think is ironically more of a blessing at this point. Still, I don't feel any confidence here, If Kazuya was the E3 character then anybody viewed as above him is not in a good spot. I can also agree that the timing of the Crash revival era may just be slightly too off for it to result in a Smash inclusion. Also, I recall official Crash social media acting shady about the Crash in Smash topic to the point where I think it would be threading NDA territory.

Want: 5%
I do have some interest in Crash and I do want to play more of his games. I haven't touched N.Sane trilogy since I beat Crash 1 on it and I should change that. Still, he wouldn't quite do it for me in terms of hype. There's a certain other third-party scrimblo that would. Also honestly, a Crash inclusion is something I would moreso appreciate in terms of the crossover appeal cause I just can't see him having much of an interesting moveset.

Wright: 25.85%
Amaterasu: 7.30%
Bandana Dee x20

 

[DynoStretch]

Master Chief - I highly doubt we're getting another Microsoft character with this pass. The phrase, 'putting too many eggs in one basket' comes to mind, and I imagine Nintendo wants to have some amount of diversity in the pass by giving multiple companies a chance to shine. I can say he'd make a fine Mii gunner costume though.

Crash Bandicoot - Honestly I think if he was going to be a part of the pass, he would had been shown off sooner. Feels really doubtful at this point.

And they even shifted Toys for Bob to be a COD supplementary studio.

Also this. Activision can go screw off.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Crash Bandicoot and Master Chief

Chance for both: 0%
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Both of these guys were considered the frontrunners for this DLC. They seemed like they had everything going for them, yet nothing happened. If they were coming, they would've been announced at E3, but that didn't happen. Now that we have only one spot left, it seems like they got their chances killed. This is especially true for Crash, I feel, given Activision's recent changing of priorities to COD (apparently going so far as to change their ad email's name to "Call of Duty": as in, somebody got an ad for Tony Hawk from Call of Duty) makes his future less certain than we thought. As for Master Chief, yeah, Steve should've been proof enough he wasn't coming. Honestly, though, GoodGrief741 pretty much said everything I could've said on the matter. This really was a case of characters seemingly being likely, only to not happen. I know I don't have much here, but frankly, I got nothing else to add.

Abstain on want. I'm honestly pretty tired, so I can't really put this to words.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

And they even shifted Toys for Bob to be a COD supplementary studio.

Master Chief - I highly doubt we're getting another Microsoft character with this pass. The phrase, 'putting too many eggs in one basket' comes to mind, and I imagine Nintendo wants to have some amount of diversity in the pass by giving multiple companies a chance to shine. I can say he'd make a fine Mii gunner costume though.

Crash Bandicoot - Honestly I think if he was going to be a part of the pass, he would had been shown off sooner. Feels really doubtful at this point.



Also this. Activision can go screw off.

I'm quoting all of you because I want to clear the air surrounding how Activision is handling Toys For Bob. A big reason why Activision might be making TFB a COD developer for the time being is because there are reports that the next COD is having development trouble. So this may just be a case of "Mayday! Our cash cow is in danger! Put all hands on deck!" Rather than Activision forgetting Crash. Now, I understand that this is Activision that we are talking about. They are notoriously greedy. I get it. But let's not forget how much Activision has been pushing Crash for the last 4 years. They have put out 3 games within 4 years, they have been supporting merchandise of Crash, and overall they have really pushed the series in marketing. Crash is a moneymaker for Activision, I'm sure they see the value in the I.P and they won't drop Crash just like that. It's clear that he has become a flagship name for the company.

So please, calm down and don't be so quick to assume the worse. There is a good chance that Crash still has a bright future.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

The amount of misinfo going around about the TFB situation is getting out of hand. I’m gonna talk about it in my write up later, but let me reiterate one key point.

The current COD game being worked on for next Gen, COD Vanguard, has been known to be a mess and in development hell. The least talented studio of the three COD studios, Sledgehammer, has to work on new hardware they are not as familiar with. This seems to me less of a “crash is dead” situation and more “all hands on deck we need to save vanguard” sitch. TFB would be a solid choice if you had to pick a studio to take sledgehammers place. They are coding wizards, look at how they ported N Sane or Crash 4 or Reignited. They know their stuff and can work well with deadlines. To me, this is not a doom and gloom sitch.

And even if Vanguard was not a dumpster fire (it is), Crash has had 4 different developers since his revival. I doubt that this is anything to be doom and gloom over, especially when this happened in 2021. If Crash was chosen, he would have been chosen in November 2019 ish. So even in the hypothetical worst case scenario, it doesn’t matter.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I'm quoting all of you because I want to clear the air surrounding how Activision is handling Toys For Bob. A big reason why Activision might be making TFB a COD developer for the time being is because there are reports that the next COD is having development trouble. So this may just be a case of "Mayday! Our cash cow is in danger! Put all hands on deck!" Rather than Activision forgetting Crash. Now, I understand that this is Activision that we are talking about. They are notoriously greedy. I get it. But let's not forget how much Activision has been pushing Crash for the last 4 years. They have put out 3 games within 4 years, they have been supporting merchandise of Crash, and overall they have really pushed the series in marketing. Crash is a moneymaker for Activision, I'm sure they see the value in the I.P and they won't drop Crash just like that. It's clear that he has become a flagship name for the company.

So please, calm down and don't be so quick to assume the worse. There is a good chance that Crash still has a bright future.

The amount of misinfo going around about the TFB situation is getting out of hand. I’m gonna talk about it in my write up later, but let me reiterate one key point.

The current COD game being worked on for next Gen, COD Vanguard, has been known to be a mess and in development hell. The least talented studio of the three COD studios, Sledgehammer, has to work on new hardware they are not as familiar with. This seems to me less of a “crash is dead” situation and more “all hands on deck we need to save vanguard” sitch. TFB would be a solid choice if you had to pick a studio to take sledgehammers place. They are coding wizards, look at how they ported N Sane or Crash 4 or Reignited. They know their stuff and can work well with deadlines. To me, this is not a doom and gloom sitch.

And even if Vanguard was not a dumpster fire (it is), Crash has had 4 different developers since his revival. I doubt that this is anything to be doom and gloom over, especially when this happened in 2021. If Crash was chosen, he would have been chosen in November 2019 ish. So even in the hypothetical worst case scenario, it doesn’t matter.

Can you guys at least address this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Because no offense, but it sounds like you guys are trying to downplay the situation. There's a reason so many are concerned about Crash's future...

 

[Sari]

Master Chief

Chance: 20%
This is probably going to be the hardest post-Kazuya character to rate since Chief has so many factors in play that can be taken in many ways.

Regarding the Halo Community Director's one tweet around E3: He stated here that he has no secret insight as to what is goes on with stuff like this. I imagine if Halo in Smash were actually happening, the higherups would try to keep this as quiet as possible and wouldn't inform someone like a community director about it. So I'm tempted to just dismiss that one tweet as nothing after rethinking it.

Regarding whether the last character can be a high profile pick or not: It's true that Smash typically ends on low notes, however there's one character that may contradict this: Bayonetta. She was passed off as the winner of the ballot, so I think having one of the (supposed) most requested characters at the very end would sort of count as a "hype" pick.

Regarding a possible TGA reveal: The wait period in between Roy and Cloud's release for SSB4 was about 6 months (June --> December of that year), so I wouldn't count this possibility out just yet. But then again, Roy also came with Lucas and Ryu so I don't know if that would change things.

Regarding double-dipping: With us getting Steve, I can see it being a damper to another Microsoft character. But at the same time, the time in between Steve and CP11 (at least a year + 3 characters in between) is so stretched out that I'm not sure if it would really matter. Plus the two characters are so different from each other that I don't think it'd matter at all especially given all of the supposed Nintendo/Microsoft talks that Lionfranky mentioned.


As for general stuff Chief has going for him: Lionfranky explained it best, but Halo is pretty well-known in Japan so I think it can overcome the whole FPS games aren't popular in Japan hurdle. Halo is also massively popular around the world so this would sort of be like a reverse Hero situation. I'm not saying his popularity in Japan is exactly a plus, though it's better than some other Western characters.

For the main downsides, Steve's inclusion does make another Microsoft rep a tad less likely while Chief would've been perfect for a TGA or E3 reveal. I can get showing Sephiroth at the TGAs, but Chief would've made much more sense for E3 than Kazuya. Also with the continued talks between Nintendo and Microsoft, there's a chance he could just get the Mii Gunner treatment (which tbh seems a lot more likely than as an actual character).

I think Chief's only shot at getting in is if we actually do get a TGA reveal later this year. If we're getting a random reveal presentation in the Fall, then this score will plummet to near 0% levels. But if a Smash reveal at the TGAs is confirmed, expect my score to go above 50%.

Want: 75%
Halo is one of the few series that I haven't actually played but would love to see in Smash. The games look fun and I've been eyeing up the Master Chief Collection as soon as I get a new computer. And of course Chief is just such an iconic character that seeing him spar heads with Mario would be the craziest crossover in Smash yet. Smash speculation segments typically end on a whimper, but I'm hoping that Ultimate ends with a bang.

-----

Crash

Chance: 10%
In retrospect, Crash does feel a bit like Dante in that his Smash hype train may have started a bit too late. This pass seems to be filled with characters that may have missed the cut for base game/FP1. Now granted Crash still does have a fair amount of things going for him in general, but this may be another case like Chief in that he may have been better of for an E3 reveal. I think he will absolutely be a big candidate for the next game, but for now it sort of seems like he missed the mark due to timing.

Want: 100%
I love the Crash games. They're really fun and you should check them all out. Crash is such a fun and wacky character that he'd fit into Smash perfectly. Also it'd be great to see him spar with Mario and Sonic. His inclusion in Smash would be one of those that is just hard to hate. He's definitely among my top 5 most wanted characters for CP11.

-----

Phoenix Wright chance prediction: 30.00%
Amaterasu chance prediction: 5.00%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x20

 

[Guynamednelson]

there's one character that may contradict this: Bayonetta. She was passed off as the winner of the ballot, so I think having one of the (supposed) most requested characters at the very end would sort of count as a "hype" pick.

Keep in mind Bayonetta's still the smallest third-party to get into Smash 4's DLC.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Basically the theory states that we might get a fan favorite as the last character. So far we haven't gotten a character in this pass that had demand on the same level as Banjo. Some characters that fit into this theory are Crash, Waluigi, Isaac, Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong ,etc.

Wouldn't Steve count as a fan demand pick?

Sure he wasn't the most popular with certain groups but his demand is insane.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Can you guys at least address this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Because no offense, but it sounds like you guys are trying to downplay the situation. There's a reason so many are concerned about Crash's future...

I mean, that could easily be a tech issue. Email stuff like this can mess up all the time. I’m on mobile so I will edit the link in later, but the Activision investor reports show more evidence that there is no reason to go full doomer.

According to the investor reports, COD underperformed, while Crash 4 and Tony Hawk over preformed expectations. And this was before the PS5/XSX versions, Switch, or Battle.net versions were out in full force. Combine that with Activision themselves saying they have more planned for Crash’s 25th, and I would take their word at face value that Crash is doing good.

Finally, you also have taken Liam Robertson’s word as gospel in the past. In spite of the fact he never made his Crash video public yet, or the fact that he backpedaled hard after all the Wumpa League rumors went around, or when prominent individuals with Crash insider info like Canadian Guy said his info was not the whole picture. If I had to choose between taking the word of Liam or the word of accurate Crash insiders and Activision, I’d go with them.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I mean, that could easily be a tech issue. Email stuff like this can mess up all the time. I’m on mobile so I will edit the link in later, but the Activision investor reports show more evidence that there is no reason to go full doomer.

According to the investor reports, COD underperformed, while Crash 4 and Tony Hawk over preformed expectations. And this was before the PS5/XSX versions, Switch, or Battle.net versions were out in full force. Combine that with Activision themselves saying they have more planned for Crash’s 25th, and I would take their word at face value that Crash is doing good.

Finally, you also have taken Liam Robertson’s word as gospel in the past. In spite of the fact he never made his Crash video public yet, or the fact that he backpedaled hard after all the Wumpa League rumors went around, or when prominent individuals with Crash insider info like Canadian Guy said his info was not the whole picture. If I had to choose between taking the word of Liam or the word of accurate Crash insiders and Activision, I’d go with them.

I'm not gonna continue this due to the divisive nature of this topic, but in this case, I'd rather side with Liam than the guy who has been needlessly insistant that there HAS to be something Crash-related in the works, despite all the evidence to the contrary.

TLDR: agree to disagree.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Wouldn't Steve count as a fan demand pick?

Sure he wasn't the most popular with certain groups but his demand is insane.

Possibly? You'd have to get more opinions from people who are more familiar with the theory but I'm thinking more along the lines of characters who have been demanded for either a long time or who are very popular within the Nintendo sphere.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Wouldn't Steve count as a fan demand pick?

Sure he wasn't the most popular with certain groups but his demand is insane.

The theory is less that Steve isn’t a fan demand pick, moreso that there might have been one planned for E3 2021. People assumed this might have been a Hero Banjo situation to an extent. Now, there is not much to back this, but COVID is still clearly an obstacle especially with development returning to remote, so who knows. We might not have been due for a double reveal at E3 and it was just Kazuya. Or there might be the missing Banjo to Kazuya’s Hero. Who knows? We won’t until CP11.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I fail to see how this whole Toys4Bob thing has anything to do with chance ratings as this happened long after they locked everything in

 

[SargeAbernathy]

Both of these characters were on so many fan's lists over the last few years, but I think time got the better of them. Still, I'm not ready to tank either of them to 0% chance just yet. Each have their pluses and their minuses.

Crash Bandicoot:

Chance: 9% If there is a chance for a Western character in the last spot, I think Crash has one of the best claims for it. Crash's popularity with his first three games in Japan broke records for a western title. The recent games brought him back after prior games weren't published. The franchise is in a great spot and currently has been for the last several years.

What hurts him is he's a western character, a third-party character(*), and he's Activision.

I give Crash a 9% chance. I feel Crash has sway being a popular character in both the West and East. Activision is a huge hurdle to overcome, and although it's not insurmountable I do feel it's Crash's largest hurdle. It's not like Activision couldn't be the last company ... but they've not contributed anything so far (please correct me if wrong).

Want: 70% He's a great character that's popular in all markets. It be awesome to see him as the last character.


Masterchief:

Chance: 10% Microsoft has given a lot for Smash, and I this is exactly why neither Microsoft nor Square Enix should be counted out. They've proven easy to contract/negotiate with. Why wouldn't Nintendo want to go for a third or fourth character with them if they're being this friendly?

I just don't see it being Masterchief. He's extremely popular ... in the west. Not as much so in Japan, but he does have name recognition. I think this about counts him out. A western character for the last spot is possible, but it have to be someone popular like Crash.

Masterchief's time was E3. I don't think Crash depended on an E3 reveal, I'm pretty sure Masterchief did.

Want: 65% I love playing Halo. He'd be a great First Person Shooter rep.



(*) The more I've thought about it, the more I feel Nintendo might want to give the spotlight to themselves for the last fighter. It's the last hoorah, and if I were Nintendo I'd want the last thought to be from one of their franchises.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It's taken over 24 hours for a new rating to pop up, I think we can move on

 

[Ridrool64]

Even Ridley is glad he's not these guys. Also sorry for the ask to move on into new rating true combo.

Chance (Both): 5%. Since I don't expect the character to not show up in September-October range I don't think it's TGA which is their last hope. One has company competition already having made it in and the other has a very uncertain future but I would bet against both of them. They are both too big to be the last character, that is, if they were here they'd have been revealed by now. And I don't even think the last character has to be awful, but like Crash and Chief individually are both second only to Steve in acclaim. Could've garnered a lot of goodwill and new sales a lot sooner than they did if they were to show up now. The good news is that they've got great shots for the future... well as long as things work out and they don't lose steam in the Smash scene. (Or lose TO Steam, in Chief's case...)

Want (Chief): Abstain I don't care.

Want (Crash): 90%. Hey just because I think he's a sinking ship doesn't mean everything I said about him still doesn't apply. But if he was added the odds of him being 90% Crash 4 and 10% every other game are high and I want more than that so I don't know if I want him in that state. He'd be great either way.

Next game isn't a reboot x max. Wright is still in a good position and isn't too big to be the last character, 29.64%. Ammy competes with Capcom's last frontrunner, 10.58%.