Lloyd Irving
44.10% Chance - 57.00% Want
First time we rated him he got 50.92% chance and 53.37% want. Back in the day, real early on in FPV1 speculation, he was still seen as the frontrunner for the Bandai Namco spot, only the idea of Bandai Namco not getting a character would've been laughed off back then. Second time we rated him he got 47.83% chance and 54.00% want. By this point, E3 has come and gone, we'd already gotten two JRPG protagonists (or 5, depending on how you count Hero), Heihachi's cons were looking weaker, and people were starting to wonder if Bandai Namco might miss off on a spot. Also, that's around the fleeting period of time when Yuri was taken seriously by speculation. Last time we rated him he got 50.29% chance and 47.85% want. A new Pass was around the corner, and surely that was to be Bandai Namco's time, right? This was also the first rating after Byleth's release, so clearly there was a lot of (misplaced?) optimism in another Pass chock-full of the big third parties. What's changed since then to make his chance score drop by a big 6%? Heihachi's costume came back with Min Min, showing nobody's truly safe from theirs coming back.
Winners of predictions were
Blankiturayman
and
Jomosensual
with a precise 45.00%
Chosen Undead
21.13% Chance - 40.44% Want
Last time we rated him he got 18.16% chance and 23.67% want. This one definitely saw benefit from Heihachi's untimely disconfirmation, just look at that want score soar!
Winner of predictions was
Blankiturayman
with a precise 20.00%
KOS MOS
6.17% Chance - 39.51% Want
Last time we rated her she got 8.87% chance and 35.24% want. By then all her rumors had been debunked, hence how similar the scores are to now.
Winners of predictions were
DanganZilla5
and
Jomosensual
with a precise 4.00%
KOS-MOS remains a very controversial character, with many want scores nearing 100 and many right at 0. I should also mention that her chance rating is skewed by a rogue 50% (the second highest scores are 15%); without it, her score would be closer to 3.74%.
Dragapult
10.67% Chance - 27.55% Want
Winner of predictions was
GoodGrief741
with 10.08%
Toxtricity
12.74% Chance - 34.83% Want
Last time we rated it it got 12.34% chance and 41.62% want.
Winner of predictions was
DanganZilla5
with a precise 13.00%
Urshifu
14.40% Chance - 12.92% Want
Last time we rated it it got 11.43% chance and 16.46% want.
Winners of predictions were
BowserKing
and
3BitSaurus
with a precise 15.00%
This puts Urshifu at number 4 on the least wanted first party characters (also, least wanted Gen 8 Pokemon). Congratulations!
Melmetal
1.32% Chance - 21.15% Want
First time we rated it it got 11.48% chance and 23.15% want. The first DLC character rated, along with Edelgard, and long before we knew what Sword and Shield was, this hunk of junk was one of the big boogeymen of speculation. Second time we rated it it got 3.62% chance and 10.78% want. Post E3, we knew about Sword and Shield, and the three starters, so this one was looking dead in the water. Last time we rated it it got 1.71% chance and 21.10% want. Dunno what caused that spike in want, though timeline-wise it coincides with Urshifu's appearance as the new cynical "worst case scenario", so maybe that's part of it.
Winner of predictions was
waddledeeonredyoshi
with 1.44%
For Melmetal, I guess its single double-digits chance score (a 10%) counts as an outlying score. Without it, its score is an abysmal 0.59%. Either way, Melmetal is by far the least likely of the Gen 8 Pokémon.
Cinderace
32.33% Chance - 31.75% Want
Last time we rated it it got 26.63% chance and 27.71% want.
Winner of predictions was
WeirdChillFever
with 33.30%
Believe it or not, that score puts Cinderace in the top 5 for likelihood for first party characters (4th or 5th, depending on whether Master Hand counts), and thus the likeliest of the Gen 8 Pokémon.
Rillaboom
16.38% Chance - 35.50% Want
Last time we rated it it got 16.11% chance and 27.47% want.
Winner of predictions was
GoodGrief741
with 16.11%
Rillaboom is henceforth the most wanted Gen 8 Pokemon. I won't make the joke, but you're thinking of it.
Inteleon
12.18% Chance - 20.25% Want
Last time we rated it it got 12.41% chance and 27.00% want.
Winner of predictions was
Sari
with a precise 12.00%
So, what changed for the whole bunch? Well, surprising no one, the want scores are basically split between those willing to tolerate another Pokemon and those who aren't; I don't recall seeing anyone actually hoping to get a Gen 8 Pokemon. The exception to this is Toxtricity, whose scores were mostly positive, and, if you want to be charitable, the starters, with Cinderace and Rillaboom being slightly polarized and Inteleon being more split than its brethren. Of note, despite being a less unanimous choice, Rillaboom still beat Toxtricity, so I guess it has a strong fanbase but a lot of hate as well. The recent popularity poll seemed to have no discernible effect on scores, despite being cited by many; Toxtricity barely saw a change in chance and dropped in want despite placing second out of these characters, Rillaboom saw increases in chance and especially in want despite being beaten by Cinderace, and newcomer Dragapult, the winner of said poll, barely made a dent in either category. Cinderace, however, emerges as somewhat of a clear frontrunner, with noticeable surges in both scores that could be attributed to that, whereas Inteleon, last among the starters, lost chance and want big time. Who knows? Maybe Rillaboom's defeat makes it more of an underdog that people want to root for, and maybe Toxtricity's starting to get backlash for its popularity. That could explain the fluctuations, though, as previously noted, there weren't many low want scores for Toxtricity.
Urshifu's chance score is higher and its want is lower, which I guess makes sense given its status. This is probably due to proximity to the Isle of Armor DLC. However, many pointed out that the more time passes, the less sense it'd make to release him, so expect lower scores if we ever rerate it down the line.
Lara Croft
32.41% Chance - 66.19% Want
First time we rated her she got 29.75% chance and 54.21% want. Last time we rated her she got 29.50% chance and 69.06% want. Not much is changing between these ratings, so unless something happens with the franchise I'd expect Lara to stay in the vicinity of these scores.
Winner of predictions was
Perkilator
by virtue of being the highest prediction, with a precise 30.00%. I guess we all expected her to be underrated, so this should come as a pleasant surprise!
Elma
11.21% Chance - 61.57% Want
First time we rated her she got 20.41% chance and 48.84% want. This was pretty early in Vol 1 speculation, when Rex was out of the equation, Xenoblade DE wasn't a thing yet and so a Xenoblade X port or sequel being the next project was a strong possibility. Last time we rated her she got 6.48% chance and 51.18% want. By this point we knew about the Xenoblade remake, and Byleth had happened so Rex was starting to look like a strong possibility. Since then, Min Min demonstrated that Spirits can be upgraded to playable, so while Rex's odds skyrocketed in the eyes of many, Elma's are still seen as notably better. Also, you can see her support growing over time, so that's good news for her fanbase at least.
Winners of predictions were
NintenRob
and
DanganZilla5
with a precise 10.00%
Jibanyan
16.63% Chance - 24.74% Want
First time we rated him he got 16.97% chance and 15.00% want. Last time we rated him he got 16.00 chance and 21.09% want. Chance score is firmly stuck in the 16s, but since we first rated him he gained nearly 10% in want. What could be the cause of that?
Winner of predictions was
BowserKing
with a precise 15.00%
Jibanyan also seems to be a controversial character, with almost half of his want scores being 0s.
Agumon
15.91% Chance - 58.10% Want
Last time we rated him he got 22.17% chance and 56.29% want. Ouch. I would have expected chance to go up, given Digimon's continued resurgence. But I guess Sakurai's statement about Bandai Namco forgetting they have a character in the game, plus Heihachi's surprise Mii Costume-ing makes any Bandai Namco character look less likely.
Winners of predictions were
BowserKing
and
Blankiturayman
with a precise 15.00%
Megadoomer
