Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstain. I do not know a single thing about these two.

Noms: Amiya x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Wrench boy
Chance: 0.1%
Advance Wars hasn't seen another instalment since 2008 and that very likely won't change soon as FE has casted a huge shadow over it and Nintendo rarely does franchise revivals of smaller, experimental series like this. Andy doesn't really have a huge support base like Isaac either. Timing and huge demand are important for non-promotional first-parties and Andy doesn't have either.

Want: 10%
Never played Advance Wars but I am a fan of the idea of more niche Nintendo series being represented. I'd sooner try this series over Fire Emblem honestly.

Japanese girl or something i don't have a joke
Chance: 0.1%
To my knowledge, this character existed in Sakurai's mind but was never seriously considered because of her game being JP only. To be fair, her IP isn't dead since the game's getting a remake...that also isn't being localized. Really, if Takumaru can't be playable then neither can she.

Want: 0%
Did I say I was a fan of niche Nintendo series getting a fighter? Scratch that! I'm a fan of niche localized Nintendo series getting a fighter. Famicom Detective says nothing to me. No interest, I'm sorry.

Layton: 19.25%
Steve: 27.65%
Deltarune content x5
(Yo Phoenix Douchebag , I noticed Vi from Bug Fables is in danger of getting purged. I could save them if you want.)

 

[Simnm]

Abstain
Prediction:
Steve:55%

 

[fogbadge]

Advance Wars hasn't seen another instalment since 2008 and that very likely won't change soon as FE has casted a huge shadow over it and Nintendo rarely does franchise revivals of smaller, experimental series like this.

experimental? it lasted a good 20 years

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain since i dont really know or care a ton about these two characters

Predictions
Layton 8%
Steve - 15%

Noms:
A non Steve/Chief Microsoft rep x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Tanks

Chance: 2%

Advance Wars was a critically successful series and sold decently from what I have been reading. It did get 4 games so that says something. Unfortunately though for some reason Nintendo never decided to make another game after 2008 and the only thing we've gotten from the series since then is a couple Wii U and 3DS ports. That's it. And it doesn't help that Andy does not have a big push from fans so at this point, he is a pipe dream unless if we miraculously get a remake or another game soon. Otherwise, I can't see this being on Nintendo's radar.

Want: Abstain

I've heard nothing but great things about Advance Wars, I just haven't had the opportunity to play it yet.

________________

Criminal Minds

Chance: 0%

As far as I know, this is a Japan-only series and look at what happened with Takamaru. The series is getting a remake soon, I'll give it that, but as of now it's not getting localized. Sakurai has said that if he knew that Mother 3 wasn't getting localized, he would not have added Lucas. I can't see this happening, especially since Takamaru has gotten his game localized and he has gotten some push in the West, yet he isn't playable yet.

Want: Abstain

Judging from what I've read, the series seems interesting and I am intrigued by the story and the style of the game. I do like a good murder mystery.....if only I could play it though.

Predictions:
Layton - 35%
Steve - 50% (Here we go again with this controversial character)

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Lyncario]

Chance
Andy: 0.1%
Andy doesn't really has a chance to get in considering how the last Advance Wars was in 2008 and nothing new ever since. I don't see a reason as to why Nintendo would pick him to be a dlc in Ultimate, especialy considering how Inteligent Systems already have a much more known and successfull series already repped in Smash, which is Fire Emblem. He also does not have the massive fan request that other irrelevant characters had, so yeah it's pretty much dead for him.
Ayumi: 0.2%
There was a remaster or remake of her game recently, or it's coming soon, don't remember which it is. She does have the problem of being Japan only without a big following, even if Sakurai considered adding her in Melee. So yeah, kinda sad for her since she actualy has relevance again, but her chances are not much highter than Andy's chances.

Want for both:
Abstain. I don't know enough about their series, and while for other characters in the same situation I was able to give thm a fairly neutral rating, I on't I could for them because their games need to be played to get a good feeling of how they wuold play in Smash as it's not obvious (I'm also a bit ashamed to not have played even a single Advance Wars despite being an FE fan), especialy for Ayumi since she's a visual novel character without an anime adaption that would make it easier to find what she could do.

Nominations: SMT rep x5

Predictions:
Layton: 24.6%
Steve: 37.8%

 

[Sari]

Andy

(I posted this the last time we rated Andy back in early 2019 and sadly it is still relevant)

Chance: 1%
It pains me to type this but I'll just rip the band-aid off: Advance Wars is dead. The last game in the series was 12 years ago and didn't even release in Japan until years later as part of a Club Nintendo promo. Intelligent Systems is just way too focused on Fire Emblem that they've forgotten about their original turn-based strategy series. Base game is one thing but when DLC is usually used to promote ongoing series (or really big names like Banjo) then I just don't see an AW rep happening anytime soon.

Want: 100%
If there is one dead Nintendo franchise that absolutely deserves to be resurrected aside from F-Zero, it is Advance Wars. Addicting gameplay, colorful characters, and a long history dating back to Famicom Wars in 1988. It still baffles me that Nintendo hasn't done a thing with this series in the entirety of the 2010's. Maybe the 2020's will be different? Of course they won't but just let me pretend.

If you haven't played Advance Wars, please do yourself a favor and go play it now whether it be through the Wii U VC or through other means. All of the games are a blast while Advance Wars 2 in particular is easily one of my top 5 GBA games. Andy is the perfect choice to represent the series due to his role in the first two GBA games (plus his supporting role in Dual Strike) as well as being one of the more basic/well-rounded CO's.

-----

Ayumi

Chance: 0%
Her series was never released outside of Japan and hasn't had a new game in decades. She was considered for Melee but dropped due to being too obscure outside of Japan. She's found a home in very small Smash references and even a costume in Mario Maker but that's just about it. If Takamaru was too internationally obscure for SSB4 then there is no way Ayumi would make it in first let alone as DLC for Ultimate.

Want: Abstain
Never played her game so I won't comment. A detective series character would be pretty neat though.

-----

Professor Layton chance prediction: 28.00%
Steve chance prediction: 25.00%

-----

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5 (gonna save my extra noms for later)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

experimental? it lasted a good 20 years

Last time I checked Advance Wars was only active from 2001 to 2008 so I dunno what you're talking about

 

[BowserKing]

Andy

Chance: 10%. He is quite an obscure character so that most lower star his chance. Then again, R.O.B, Ice Climbers and PIt were are once forgotten before joining Smash Bros, so if Andy gets in, his popularity will rise.

Want: 51%. He would be fun to play as, and if does join in, I hope Infermatry and Tanks returns as an Assist Trophy. Overwise, Andy would be a surprising choice, and if he gets in, his popularity would rise, possibly enough for a new game to show up.

Ayumi


Chance: 5%. She was considered for Melee but was cut. Her chance is quite low due to obscurity, but if her game gets on the switch in the NES/SNES Section, it could help.

Want: 50%. I don’t know much about her franchise, but as long as she is fun to play as, then it’s good enough for me. Overall, she would be a very surprising character to get in and who knows what will happen.

Prediction: Layton (15%) and Steve (25%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

Update: I forgot about the bonus noms.

Bonus Noms: 5 for Gooigi, 5 for Giygas and 5 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Last time I checked Advance Wars was only active from 2001 to 2008 so I dunno what you're talking about

The Wars franchise actually goes all the way back to the Famicom, the Advance Wars name was from GBA onwards outside that one Wii game

 

[fogbadge]

Last time I checked Advance Wars was only active from 2001 to 2008 so I dunno what you're talking about

as cutie gwen said i debuted on the famicom with advance wars just being the first one released outside of japan so it actually ran from 1988 to 2008. at the time of the last release it was a long running series with many games under its belt and is actually older than its sister series of fire emblem.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Alright, my mistake

 

[Flyboy]

Ayumi Tachibana
Chance: 5%
The only reason I'm putting this any hire than the obligatory 1% is because we have confirmation that the series is back from the dead! Famicom Detective Club 1 & 2 are getting remade, and while they will lack that gorgeous iconic 90s style, they still have killer stories and characters to enjoy. Tragically, after the coverage in Famitsu we've seen little news on a release date, and zero hints of a localization...but I can dream. Anyway, she is suddenly relevant again! How funny that that one random shareholder asked about FDC, only for a remake to be in the wings. Makes me wonder how many other things are just waiting to drop soon. Anyway, with spirits no longer definitely deconfirming, Ayumi working with the protagonist rule (especially as she was the player character in the third game), and her sudden new not-not-relavant-ness, she has a chance however small to make it.

Want: 100%
Yeah, I want her in. The thing about Ayumi and FDC in general is that it, along with the Portopia Serial Murder Case, basically created visual novels as we know them! I played the only fan-translated FDC game, the SNES version of The Girl In The Back, shortly before Ultimate's release, and I've been a regular in Ayumi's thread ever since. It's a fantastic game and you can really tell how it basically created Ace Attorney and how much it influenced Japanese crime VNs in general. Ayumi is a very fun character in it, and the entire cast is super memorable.

While the first game is currently not available in English, I do recommend people look up the GameCenter CX episode where Arino plays it as his main challenge game! The episode is fansubbed, along with a lot of the game itself as a result and all the main characters and plot points, so it's a great way to experience The Missing Heir, at least until the remake totally gets localized which it totally will....for real...any day now.

Overall I just really like non-combatants being put into Smash! With Ayumi's main crew all being fun additions to her moveset plus her skills in investigating and generally just being a normal, if tough, schoolgirl, I think she'd be a really unique and fun and funny addition while also having cemented her place in gaming history with her influence.

Andy
Chance: 1%
So, with spirits no longer deconfirming, I'll give Andy more than a 0. Unfortunately, it seems like his time has passed, and with IS moving on from the Wars series it's hard to see Nintendo bringing it back. Stranger things have happened, but considering Andy is just one aspect of a very long running series that currently lays dormant, I don't see his chances being that high.

Want: 10%
The Wars series has a long legacy stretching back to the Famicom, but I admit I'm nowhere near as taken with the Advance Wars games as some. I never owned them as a kid and going back to them I appreciate the art and the gameplay but am just not invested like others are. Of course, Andy would have a cool tactical moveset with all kinds of infantry and artillery, so I'm not saying my want for him is 0, just that a Wars rep would definitely have to sell itself to me based on moveset and legacy rather than personal connection, so my Want is not very high especially when considering the competition currently in play for this assumed final wave.

Nominations: Don-chan x5

 

[Calamitas]

Detective Girl / What will she find? / A Smash invitation? / Probably not.

Chance: 0%
Definitely not happening. Ayumi may have been considered for Melee, but she was shot down due to a lack of Western familiarity with her, and I doubt that anything has changed since then. What also doesn't help is that every DLC fighter so far has been from either an active or recent series. And while sure, she has a remake coming (or so I hear), that one's also Japan-exclusive. So yeah, no chance there.

Want: Abstain.
Barely know a thing about her. So no rating.

Sword beats tank (geddit because Fire Emblem is alive and Advance Wars. . .)

Chance: 1%
Let's call that the pity percent. Advance Wars may have a long history, but it hasn't had a new installment since 2008, and its only non-Spirit representation in Smash, a rather generic Assist Trophy, was removed for Ultimate. The series just really hasn't anything going for it at this point. No new releases, no fan support, no developer awareness.

Want: Abstain.
Never played any game in the series. So, no want rating from me.

Predicting Layton to get around 31.86%
Predicting Steve to get around 62.46%

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x5

 

[jamesster445]

Ayumi Tachibana

Gonna abstain on this one.

Andy
Chance: 10%
Want: 100%

I'm just going to rip off a bandaid now. Fire Emblems overepresentation bothers me mostly because of Wars's complete lack of representation considering how the latter series helped build the former. Even the Assist Trophy is gone in Ultimate. And theres a lot of potential for a Wars character. Andy is just one of many Commanding Officers who can spawn, and manipulate infantry, tanks and other vehicles to his desires. Andy is also a mechanic and to my knowledge is the only CO capable of repairing his units. I think theres a lot of creative ideas that can be done with a Wars character like Andy. Not to mention the additional content such as a stage and music. Unfortunately this is unlikely due to the series effectively being put on ice and there isnt a huge demand for Andy or any Wars character in Smash.

Nominations: Boss Rush mode x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Andy

Chance: 10%

Sadly, I don't see much hope for him in Ultimate. This is mainly due to the lack of any indication of the series making a comeback, and the fact that even a character with much greater fan demand like Isaac, who is generally otherwise in the same circumstances regarding his series, wasn't able to make it in.

Want: 100%

You know, when Fire Emblem has 8 characters, I feel like Wars at least deserves Andy and Sami at this point. The series has literally grown up alongside FE as the Intelligent Systems Strategy RPGs, for the first half of FE's life they were pretty much released on all the same systems within years of each other. It's just so shocking that a 1st Party series that has had a dozen games release on numerous Nintendo platforms can't even get MUSIC or a STAGE. The series was literally one of the biggest reasons FE was brought over to the west alongside Melee and this is the thanks it gets. Give this poor franchise some exposure Sakurai.

Ayumi

Chance: 10%

Pretty much the same constraints as Andy, added that she's still currently Japan only. Not really much hope for either of them.

Want: 100%

She'd be a great retro rep in my eyes, and I'm a fan of niche Nintendo series getting more exposure. I know she was considered for Melee but was dropped for lack of familiarity abroad like Takamaru. But if Marth, Roy, and Lucas could get in and become beloved staples of Smash then so could she. I think she'd make a great pick for Smash, and with Lip finally making her way to international audiences via NSO, she could easily be too. (Not to mention the remake she's getting.

 

[GoodGrief741]

A child shall lead them

Chance: 5%
Unlike, well, everyone, I'm pretty optimistic about Advance Wars' future. With how long Nintendo wants the Switch to live, I think they have to revive at least a couple of their dead franchises, and I feel that Advance Wars is one of the frontrunners for that. The market's there, IS has the manpower, so I can see it. Still, even if it does happen, I don't know if the timing will work out for a Smash inclusion. Plus, as stupid as it sounds, Smash has a longstanding tradition of promoting only the games and franchises that don't need it, so even if a new game came out in time, there's no guarantee that they'd give it the nod.

Want: 100%
The Wars franchise has a huge history, predating Fire Emblem and outselling it for most of their lifespans. The Advance Wars games were bold, colorful, offbeat, and everything that was great with 6th generation Nintendo. Andy's a great character, with huge potential for a highly strategic and involved moveset. Frankly, with 8 Fire Emblem characters in Smash, it's high time that IS' other landmark franchise gets its due. The lack of content is ridiculous, like, no Max or Sami Spirits? What? Let's just fix this, Sakurai.

I want to make a joke about her name being misspelled but I got nothing

Chance: 10%
Ayumi has a few things over Andy. For one, we know she was previously considered. Most importantly though, she's getting a game this year, heck, it's looking like it's just her and Olimar as far as Nintendo's 2020 offerings. Obvious marketing potential is obvious. But as many have pointed out, it's not confirmed for localization. And I admit that it's hard to see Nintendo being so unconfident in a game's worldwide prospects choosing to add a promotional Smash character. But, again, I'm pretty hopeful that it could be localized. The remake looks like it wasn't made on the cheap, there's a real investment in it, so they might try their luck with an overseas release. It's not like there's no audience for visual novels in the West, and especially on the Switch. And given their sparse slate of games for the rest of the year...

Want: 100%
A crime-solving visual novel for a retro console by Nintendo? That's something you'd make up if you just randomly named stuff I like, so of course this is right up my alley. Honestly, even if this doesn't end up localized, I'm just glad Nintendo gave the series another shot at all, I like when they take risks and do unexpected stuff.

I don't want to shill, but I started a petition to ask for a localization of the Detective Club remake, and this is pretty much the only time I've seen people discuss Ayumi outside her thread. It's not much, but if anyone's interested, here's the link: https://www.change.org/p/nintendo-localize-the-famicom-detective-club-remake

Tl;dr GoodGrief likes his weird Nintendo games and hopelessly believes they have a future

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Layton prediction: 42.82%

 

[GoodGrief741]

This is the first time I've seen Sari with an avatar that isn't a variation on Quote, will take some getting used to.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Tails/Eggman pre-Andy/Ayumi Tachibana

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x290
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x290
Tidus x260
Nate Adams x235
[Rerate] Ezio x230
Shuichi Saihara x211
Moogle x175

200 - 151

[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x160
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x155

150 - 101

[Rerate] Monster Hunter x150
Alex Mason x145
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x145
[Rerate] Frisk x140
Echo: Xion (Sora) x133
Sakura Shinguji x132
Klonoa x130
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
Concept: Deltarune content x116
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
Proto Man x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Billy Hatcher x110

100 - 51

Amiya (Arknights) x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Hades (Kid Icarus) x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x67
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x64
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x55
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Giygas x55

50 - 25

Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Gooigi x50
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x50
Dr. Goomba Tower x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Stage: Bowser's Castle x50
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x40
Ghirahim x40
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Concept: Returning stages x35
Yoshimitsu x35
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x35
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x35
Boss: Rayquaza x34
Echo (Olimar) x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Vi (Bug Fables) x25
Lora and Jin x25

Under 25

Black Shadow x20
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x20
Demi-fiend x20
Chell x18
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Cynthia x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Zero (Mega Man) x10
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Young Wizard (Wizard101) x5
Concept: Tetris 99 stage x5
Concept: More individual stage DLC x5
Mii Costume: Gen 1 Pokémon x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) crosses 150 noms.

You cannot grasp how, but Giygas is over 50 noms now.

Joining the fray, with 5 noms, is Mii Costume: Gen 1 Pokémon.

At this point I honestly wonder if this is the most nominated thing this thread has ever had, and if not, what is

I haven't checked, but if memory serves me right, Jin Kazama reached 405 noms during the first fixed schedule after release. I think that's the all-time high.

 

[SharkLord]

Alright, intro time. If you don't know these guys already, you will now. That being said, I don't know either game that well either, so I'm afraid I can't go too in-depth on them.

Andy "What's an Airport?" Somethingorother (I dunno, he never had a surname)
Advance Wars is the older brother of Fire Emblem, developed by Intelligent Systems. It actually started as Famicom Wars in 1988, with Advance Wars being the first game to be localized. It's actually had quite a few installments spread out over multiple systems, most of which are named after the system they're on.

Like Fire Emblem, it's a strategy game where you command multiple units against the enemy faction's, spread out across a tile-based grid. Unlike Fire Emblem, whoever, Advance Wars eschews the RPG elements and goes all-in on the strategy. Instead of commanding individual characters in a fantasy setting, your units are nondescript troops (Though they're shown by only one guy on the grid) in a more contemporary era. Each unit has their own specific weapons that limit them. In addition, you have bases to build your troops, and so does your enemy. Said bases can be captured and converted by the opposing factions. =

The goal of the game is usually to either capture the base or wipe out all enemy units, which the characters seem to be way to enthusiastic about. In addition, you can select between multiple commanding officers, which give their troops innate buffs and debuffs, as well as a CO Power to aid them in the battles.

Advance Wars was released to critical claim and is even considered one of the greatest games of all time. Unfortunately, the series hasn't had a new installment since 2008. Still, I wouldn't be too surprised if Nintendo decides it's worth reviving.

For more info, here's half an hour of gameplay I found:

Ayumi Tachibana
Seeing as this is an older, unlocalized game, this might be a bit harder to write for. Still, I'll give it a go.

Famicom Detective Club is a visual novel/adventure game, released for... Well, I shouldn't need to tell you this, should I? You play as a detective investigating a murder mystery, except you're suffering from amnesia. As such, Ayumi has to guide you on the case. The game has some pretty good graphics for a Famicom visual novel, but was never localized. Ayumi actually was considered for Melee, but was dropped because Sakurai didn't think she'd appeal to global audiences. Sadly, it appears that her trophy in Melee is all she's gonna get outside the original release...

Oh wait, that's right. Famicom Detective Club and it's sequel a getting a remake for the Switch this year. It's not localized, but she's a lot more recent than a decent amount of popular requests. Plus, Nintendo could decide to arrange it so that she could push a potential localization.

Y'know what? I'm gonna give ratings. 10% for Andy, 20% for Ayumi. 55% for want scores. The want probably won't have enough to reach the word count and get my nomination through, but who cares. At least I tried something beyond the same low, monotonous ratings we always do with characters like these.

Predictions
Professor Layton: 29.62%
Steve?: 65.81%

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Abstaining On Ayumi.

Andy (not the Toy Story guy)

Chance : 1%

Advance Wars, in actuallity is part of a large franchise, The "Wars" or "Nintendo Wars" series, originating all the way in the Famicom with "Famicom Wars", with each title being named after the Console plus "Wars" (like Super Famicom Wars). The series only saw releases in Japan for the longest time until the GBA with Advance Wars.

Ironically, AW was extremely popular when it was released for the GBA in the west. Not only it proved that that Tactical RPGs could be popular outside of Japan, but the series was agruably more popular outside of Japan, which isn't surprising since American love their Military games (this isn't even me trying to make snarky remark or beign "rude", Metal Slug is agruably the most recognized SNK property in America, Military-style games just seem to fit American audiences which is not surpring for a country that had a lot of kids that grew up on stuff like G.I Joe) Hell, it's been stated that AW's success was one of the reasons as to why FE7 was released outside of Japan, which makes sense since they share a similar gamepay style (i could argue this is much more logical reason for FE's localization than FE beign featured in Smash as AW shows that interest in strategy games were there, while Smash only showed people liked playing as Flashy swordsmen even if they don't play the games of origin, it's basically exposure VS demand)

Unfortunately, the series failed to find its footing on the DS days, and by the time Awaifuning came around, the series was put into the backburner forever. The demand for a AW game is there, and with enough marketing it could be successful (it could differentiate itself by beign more cartoony and lighthearted, as opposed to FE's melodramatic stories featured in recent installments) but it's clear IS only has room for one oversaturated, overestimated Nintendo Strategy RPG series. All the series got in Smash was an AT in Brawl......that dind't came back in later installments, and that's it.

It's a shame really, it could have been a Nintendo icon in the making, but i guess Waifus sell, don't they (then again, Sami is the most popular AW character)

Want: 50%

I have never touched an AW, and i don't think i ever will, but god, Andy deserves a second chance. The AW series in general does really.

As a Golden Sun fan, i can heavily relate to seeing your favorite franchise beign left in the gutter for no reason, and i would like to see Andy JUST to make those fans happy. Put him in Smash, make some new games, give it another shot to sine in the sun.

It helps that i can see Andy beign a very unique fighter, since i could easily see him use Military-based gadgets and weaponry for combat, but in a much more cartoony manner as opposed to Snake's realistic take. Hell he could be riding on a Little Tank similar to those used by the Infantry units (or you know...............the Boxart which has him riding on a tank) that alone would make him far more interesing than FE has had to offer for years.

Predictions:
-Steve? We are rerating him? Again? Well, 45.69%
-Layton. Fitting timing if i say so myself. 31.23%

NOMS:
VI (Bug Fables) X5

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[clearandsweet]

Gotta come in the thread for the boy.

Andy

Chance: 10%. If this second fighter's pass is primarily a fleshing out of overlooked Nintendo franchises and mostly first-party, Advance Wars is a dang good option. There's been very vague hints through the grapevine that IS might do something with the Wars franchise on phones as the success of FEH has been real. It's a franchise with very cool designs, easy and unique fighting concepts, AND they took out the Assist Trophy in Ultimate... maybe so they could use the sprites later?

Best of all, no licensing fees.

But no, the franchise is relatively unknown in Japan because of the unfortunate launch situation and would be an Ice Climber-esque deep cut.

Want: 99%. I literally only want Isaac more than a Wars character, and only Sami more than Andy. Hard, hard insta-main.

Ayumi

Chance: 1%. I think she's the kind of character that you look at and think, "oh cool I learned something about Nintendo history."

Want: 1%. Hey, more unique movesets and more females is cool, but I'm not a fan.

 

[Pinguino21v]

Andy
Chance: 5%
What clearandsweet says just before is right, if Nintendo is only pushing first parties that don't have a fighter, Andy is in a great spot. But I don't see it happening.

Want: 80%
There are a few characters I would like more than an Advance Wars rep, mainly Isaac, but I would be very happy to see him getting in.

 

[warpenguin55]

Well I was going to come back today, but IDK anything about these 2. Absain.

Noms: Rocket League content x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Andy
Chance: 0%
Want:
50%

Ayumi
Chance: 5%
Want: 50%

Its a shame that Advance Wars died because I really liked that series. If they somehow managed to pick a fighter for it I don’t think they’d pick Andy. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the Marth-element to him.

Ayumi doesn’t seem likely at all but I think she has been mentioned by him. So I wouldn’t write her off completely, just don’t think she stands much of a chance.

*I changed my want scores because 50% is more of a neutral score than 0%

 

[Mushroomguy12]

If they somehow managed to pick a fighter for it I don’t think they’d pick Andy. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the Marth-element to him.

So who do you think they'd pick then? Just curious.

 

[Ura]

Andy Standy Bay-Bay!!!

Chance: 20%

Truthfully, i'm being very generous with this chance rating and it does kinda reek of bias. With that being said however, it's higher than before for a reason.

- Rumors of dead franchises returning in the coming years. Which makes sense given most of Nintendo's core IP have seen a mainline installment of some kind and the Switch is doing gangbusters business. If there was ever a time to bring back these kinds of franchises, it's right now. There's the Golden Sun rumors that continue to gain more ground and I noticed that the F-Zero trademark from 2 and a half years ago is more substantial than the other ones Nintendo filed. It's honestly likely these franchises return in the next year or so (even if some will scoff at that) and given they revived Famicom Detective Club out of nowhere, is it really that hard to believe? Just saying.

- Advance Wars itself got a trademark out of the blue back in Dec 2018 which was not a renewal and it's old trademark wasn't due to expire until 2022. Nintendo also doesn't file trademarks for every franchise seeing as Custom Robo didn't get one. Curiously, this trademark comes at a time where a Nintendo producer asked fans to keep asking for Advance Wars Mobile. Additionally, when asked about a new Advance Wars, the director for Three Houses kinda gave a wish-washy answer if said game existed or not. With that in mind, it's pretty likely we see this franchise get a mobile game sooner rather than later and by proxy, a mainline Switch game.

- Key Three Houses producers expressing their desire to return to the Wars series. Which I guess, is a double-edged sword since they've already expressed their interest before only for nothing to come out of it but if Nintendo's prerogative is to bring back their old dormant franchises (as the rumors go), it stands to reason why the Wars series would be on the top of that list. The interest is clearly their from key Nintendo/IntSys staff and IntSys is a very healthy studio where they can run multiple different projects.

- I know it's very cliche to say things like "Dixie is the last Nintendo All-Star" or "Ninja Gaiden is the last iconic NES franchise" but it's still a fact that the Wars series is one of Nintendo's most senior IP's and is pretty much the last long-running Nintendo franchise not represented in Smash. Thinking about it, the Wars series is only 2 years younger than The Legend of Zelda which is insane to think about. Having appeared on almost every Nintendo platform prior to the Wii U/3DS era and it's success "shifting Nintendo's taste towards complex games in the Western market", it's safe to say it has it's cultural relevance to Nintendo not to mention Fire Emblem (a major IP for Nintendo) was literally born through this franchise. That's not even to speak about it's critical acclaim.

- Sakurai's emphasis on "characters needing to be fun more so than recognizable". Sakurai went on to double down on this in the Byleth presentation saying he and his team aimed to make the Fighters Pass with characters with "new fighting mechanics". With that in mind, I can see that helping Andy's prospects given what he does (summoning units through a fund system among other things) has never been done in Smash before so that's an easy sell for him. Coupled that with what I mentioned before and honestly I feel he has a chance as a darkhorse pick.

Even with all these things taken in to consideration, I still feel it's an uphill battle for Andy given how fierce the competition is but I figured i'd do the write-up to justify the chance score and maybe open people's minds a bit. Really hoping for Andy because this is essentially his last chance for Smash I feel. Should Advance Wars ever get a character in the next Smash, it would most definitely be the protagonist for whatever new game comes out.

Want: 100%

No duh lmao! Andy is head & shoulders my most wanted character for Smash and the moveset he would bring would be so fun. It's an easy sell, honestly even to those unfamiliar with Advance Wars. Advance Wars should have been represented with a character back in Brawl so it would be a long-time coming.

Back from the dead after decades

Chance: 5%

Despite Ayumi's game being re-made after so many years, it's still a Japan exclusive and relatively low-profile so I can't see it happening unfortunately. That said, she was considered by Sakurai before so who knows? If nothing else, she'd be a fun retro to have in the next game.

Want: 70%

Sure, why not? My retro of choice is Mike Jones but Ayumi is cool too. Plus, it would spark interest in her franchise coming to the West so that's an added bonus.

If they somehow managed to pick a fighter for it I don’t think they’d pick Andy. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the Marth-element to him.

Andy is literally the Marth of his franchise lmao. He's the first main protag introduced in the franchise.

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Andy is literally the Marth of his franchise lmao. He's the first main protag introduced in the franchise.

I meant that AW wasn’t the first Wars game so Andy isn’t the first like the way Marth was to FE. However he is the first developed character I’ll agree to that.

So who do you think they'd pick then? Just curious.

Maybe the generic soldier, or a combination of Andy + other COs as his alts. I rated him low mainly because the series has been inactive.

 

[Ura]

I meant that AW wasn’t the first Wars game so Andy isn’t the first like the way Marth was to FE. However he is the first developed character I’ll agree to that.

Ahh well fair enough. I feel that he's basically the Marth by proxy of being the first main character. And no, the CO's in Super Famicom Wars were not protagonists lol.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Andy

Chance: 1%
The only reason I think he MIGHT have a chance is if that rumored Advance Wars mobile game turns out to be true. Granted, it was originally reported by a confirmed "fake leaker", so I won't put too much faith in it. Otherwise, I don't see it happening.
Want: 65%
I'll admit, I've never played Advance Wars. However, I have played Fire Emblem, and although they're ultimately different takes, I'm definetly curious as to how AW would translate into Smash. He has my support.

Ayumi Tachibana
Chance: 5%
This really depends on whether or not the Detective Club Remake gets localised. Even then, there's always the chance they'd go with the game's actual protagonist instead, even though Ayumi is more iconic. We'll have to wait and see.
Want: 55%
Again, I've never played Detective Club. However, I've been weirdly curious about her ever since the Melee trophy. Sakurai confessing he briefly considered her also helps, as I'm a sucker for the "scrapped ideas later revisited" schtick.

Nominations: Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x5

 

[SharkLord]

Ahh well fair enough. I feel that he's basically the Marth by proxy of being the first main character. And no, the CO's in Super Famicom Wars were not protagonists lol.

You could also say he's like Lyn in that he's the first CO for the West, and is treated as the face of the series in those regions. It helps that Advance Wars is more popular in the West (I think), and so the bulk of AW support would be the most popular character from the region where AW is the most popular.

That being said, I've seen Sami tossed around a couple times as an alternative. Is she the fan-favorite in this situation, sorta like Min Min is to Spring Man? Okay, maybe not the best comparison, assuming she doesn't have creator favoritism, but she does seem to be fairly popular.

 

[Ura]

You could also say he's like Lyn in that he's the first CO for the West, and is treated as the face of the series in those regions. It helps that Advance Wars is more popular in the West (I think), and so the bulk of AW support would be the most popular character from the region where AW is the most popular.

That being said, I've seen Sami tossed around a couple times as an alternative. Is she the fan-favorite in this situation, sorta like Min Min is to Spring Man? Okay, maybe not the best comparison, assuming she doesn't have creator favoritism, but she does seem to be fairly popular.

Nah the Min-Min/Springman comparison is actually pretty accurate since I see a lot of people interested in Sami who aren't really big Advance Wars fans. Makes me think there's a chance of Andy getting Springman'd in favor of Sami like Min-Min did. Although I would argue that Andy is more important to his franchise than Springman is and he's positioned as the main lead more so than Sami & Max. Also, neither Sami or Max were included as Spirits whereas Andy was so I think the Smash team see's him as the go-to choice to represent the franchise.

 

[SharkLord]

Nah the Min-Min/Springman comparison is actually pretty accurate since I see a lot of people interested in Sami who aren't really big Advance Wars fans. Makes me think there's a chance of Andy getting Springman'd in favor of Sami like Min-Min did. Although I would argue that Andy is more important to his franchise than Springman is and he's positioned as the main lead more so than Sami & Max. Also, neither Sami or Max were included as Spirits whereas Andy was so I think the Smash team see's him as the go-to choice to represent the franchise.

Ah, I see. So basically, he's what happens when the original mascot stays the mascot. Though, I've also seen one meme joking suggest that instead of another FE swordsman, we just have some random AW tank, just because. If that happens, I wouldn't even be mad.

Also, RIP Spring Man. You know you got it bad when you've become a verb for the mascot themselves getting passed over.

 

[GoodGrief741]

You could also say he's like Lyn in that he's the first CO for the West, and is treated as the face of the series in those regions. It helps that Advance Wars is more popular in the West (I think), and so the bulk of AW support would be the most popular character from the region where AW is the most popular.

That being said, I've seen Sami tossed around a couple times as an alternative. Is she the fan-favorite in this situation, sorta like Min Min is to Spring Man? Okay, maybe not the best comparison, assuming she doesn't have creator favoritism, but she does seem to be fairly popular.

Sami got a lot of traction when people didn't expect Snake to return, and she made sense as a candidate to inherit his moveset. That said, yes, she is pretty popular, though I don't know if I'd call her the fan-favorite of the cast.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

That being said, I've seen Sami tossed around a couple times as an alternative. Is she the fan-favorite in this situation, sorta like Min Min is to Spring Man? Okay, maybe not the best comparison, assuming she doesn't have creator favoritism, but she does seem to be fairly popular.

That would honestly suck... The series logo is literally a wrench, that fits Andy perfectly. We really don't need another Min Min situation. Especially given most of the AW demand is for Andy anyway.

 

[SharkLord]

Sami got a lot of traction when people didn't expect Snake to return, and she made sense as a candidate to inherit his moveset. That said, yes, she is pretty popular, though I don't know if I'd call her the fan-favorite of the cast.

Ah, that explains it. I mostly knew her from her popping up in a couple Smash fangame concepts. Since I had no idea about Advance Wars at the time, that was my main impression. She does seem to give off the same militaristic vibe as Snake, so I can see where that mindset came from.

 

[Ura]

Also, RIP Spring Man. You know you got it bad when you've become a verb for the mascot themselves getting passed over.

visualizes Andy getting bonked in the head ala Springman

 

[Sid-cada]

Andy

Chance - 2.5% - Ever sense Fire Emblem has took off, Advanced Wars has been left in the dust. While not technically canceled, I think it's best to say that it's very dormant right now. Sadly, I just don't think the fan demand is there to make up for how it's fading into irrelevance right now.

Want - 75% - I'd imagine Andy would be fairly fun! Admittedly, I think my strategy style would better fit Advanced Wars better than Fire Emblem. I really need to try Wargroove...

Ayumi Tachibani

Chance - 1% - Yes, the games are being remade, but that's not globally released. If they are, I'll bump my score then, but as of now Fire Emblem will remain the only series that manages to get their franchise in before the do the rest of the world.

Want - 55% - I'm much more for Shin Onigamshima, personally. I think being older and having a more interesting concept have me more in that old Adventure Game/Visual Novel genre. Still, I'm not completely against it, just more interested in her competitor.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[fogbadge]

personally id rather have jake over andy and sami