Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Reimu/Arle Nadja pre-Skull Kid/Midna/Lyn

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x220
Tidus x195
Moogle x175
Nate Adams x170
Shuichi Saihara x146
[Rerate] Ezio x145
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x145

150 - 101

Alex Mason x135
[Rerate] Frisk x125
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x105
Billy Hatcher x105

100 - 51

Echo: Xion (Sora) x85
Sakura Shinguji x85
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: Deltarune content x77
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Klonoa x70
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x70
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x54
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x52

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x45
Gooigi x45
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Dr. Goomba Tower x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25

Under 25

Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
John Marston x20
Amiya (Arknights) x20
Boss: Rayquaza x19
Echo (Olimar) x16
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x15
Cynthia x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x5
Tetra x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2

Billy Hatcher rolls past 100 noms.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Funny Mask Man and Wolf Rider.
Chance for both: 5%

Zelda has still not gotten a single new character that isn' an alternate version of Link since Melee. I see no reason for this to change as of now. Hyrule Warriors came and went and wasn't enough for Sakurai, Twillight Princess got ported to the Wii U and MM to the 3DS and still wasn't enough to convince Sakurai. Candance of Hyrule will not make a difference at this point.

While they are obviously popular in their own series, they are barely requested in Smash Circles Casual or Hardcore. This admitedly is not because of lack of interest by the gaming public, but because of a similar issue to Dixie. The characters are seen as unlikely, therefore talk and requests about them are lackluster, and the cycle repeats until SOMETHING breaks it, but it's very possible these 2 will be relegated to Assists for a looooong time. There's a small chance that they could make it in though, emphasis on SMALL.

Want For Skull Kid: 50%
I'll be honest, this is THE one Zelda character (outside of Vaati and Pig Ganon) i actually see potential in. He was the first antagonist that wasn't Ganon (and while a Pawn, of the Majora's Mask, he wasn't a pawn of Ganon) and while im not a fan of MM (from a gameplay standpoint) i would be more than okay with his inclusion.

Want For Midna: 5%
Midny on the other hand.........yeah im okay. I get that she's popular, but i never really cared for her, and for better or for worse i stumbled upon 1 or 2 Midna Craaaaaaaaazy Stans on my journey. Not the fault of the character obviously, but doesn't help that i never was fond of her either.

I already made that joke yesterday.

Chance: 1%

Look, she's popular, im not gonna deny that Lyn is really popular among FE fans. Which is surprising, while Lyn is agruably the introducion of many western FE fans due to her beign the first playable character in the first International FE game, the series was still underground and niche until Awakening's success. But even after the rise of Awakening, Fates and now Three Houses, Lyn has managed to still be among the most beloved protagonists in the series, so much so that in a poll for FE Heores in 2017, she was THE most popular Female overthrowing Lucina and the 2nd most popular character overall (Ike was an available choice in both is Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn forms, separated they had less votes than Lyn but as one character, Ike is still the most popular FE hero in that poll).

Granted, her popularity could be assumed due to her AT that has been a part of this series in Brawl, but im not sure of that. She beat Lucina and Roy, who were playable characters in the roster for long. It would be one thing if she was among the top 10, but beign the most popular one after IKE? yeah im impressed. Not only that, she was later added in Fire Emblem Warriors, something not even Ike can say! (most of the roster in that game is based on only 3 games of the series, except Celica from Echoes) I guess the nostalgia of the 2000's kids lives on Lyn now, since many of the people that played FE7 in the GBA years ago are now grow up and compose a good chunk of interest usage, combine that with FE's more accessible and well known status helps her in this case.

As for moveset? Well, we do have many swordsmen in Smash, but we have one style of swordsplay that we don't even have? Well, more "eastern" styled swordsplay. While im not gonna call Lyn a "Samurai", "bushido" etc, her playstyle and movement and manuvers alone feel a little more at home with those terms than the usual more European-inspired aesthetic that most FE's cast is known for. For all intents and purposes, she can also basically teleport (it could just be an aesthetic choice, but the potential is there) and has a bow and arrow for long range in case you thought Byleth needed company) Project M's scrapped Lyn mod and FE Warriors are good ideas as to how she would play. If you wanted something that doesnt' feel like a FE Smash character, you will be dissapointed, but if you want something that's not close to Marth or Ike but is more simplistic and easy to grasp than Byleth and Robin and Corrin, Lyn fits right in.

So why is she so low then? Well, she hasn't starred in a new game in like, what? 10 years? When it comes to franchise like Fire Emblem, timing is key, and beign the most recent FE hero is one of the easiest ways to get in Smash............and the only one really. Honestly her only real shot was in Brawl when she still was partially "relevant", and after that i don't think she will be in Smash anytime soon. I mean i guess a remake of Elibe's games could be an easy way to bring her back to relevance, but Celica didn't get in Ultimate so im not sure that it would help that much. Not everyone can be a K.Rool, sometimes you are a Meowth: A popular and important character in their own right with great merits, but in a franchise like FE where the new kid on the block gets all the spotlight? Yeah no.

Chrom was an exception to this, and even then he only got in as an Echo, so no, i don't think this is a comparable situation.

Want: Abstain.

I was going to give this Gal a big fat 0%, but the more i think of it, i don't think i can reach a conclusion so easily.

For one hand, yes, im on the camp that firmly believes that FE is overexposed and has far too many content in Smash, not just in Characters mind you, but in EVERYTHING ELSE too (3 Assist In Ultimate while DKC only has ONE, far too many spirits to count, 4 stages while Wario Land and R.O.B get jack ****, and HAS THE MOST MUSIC IN ULTIMATE SECOND ONLY TO MARIO) and so for it to get more i would outright pissed. Having another FE character take development time in 1 of the remaining 4 spots would be baffling, and no amount of aplogists and victimization from the FE "fanbase" and ****ty memes of "HoES MaD!" would change my mind, in fact it only would make me FAR more stubborn. I hate Saber in Smash, but she wouldn'te a character from a very OVERSATURATED serie while other franchises are not even given the chance to be talked about.

But on the other, i don't hate Lyn at all. Unlike Byleth, i actually like Lyn's design far more, and i prefer a more simplistic yet unique moveset over the abundance of gimmicks Fighter Pass 1 bought (excluding Banjo) so i don't she would be a chore to play as. Also i gotta give it to Lyn for having such a massive fan support base on her side after all these years. Others like Erika have been mostly forgotten to time but Lyn has stood out. You can say it's the Assist Trophy that works as a reminder that she exists, but im starting to think this large following is REGARDLESS of the AT, not Because of the AT. So while i do not want her in Smash by any means now, i can't say i hate her either.

It's like Meowth from Pokémon. I don't care for any possible PKMN newcomer, but Meowth is welcome in my eyes (the only reason im more open to him than Lyn is because Pokémon is the largest media franchise in the world so think its representation in Smash is justified, FE...........not so much)





........okay yeah and she's hot. DON'T LOOK AT ME LIKE THAT IT WASN'T ME. JAPANESE TWITTER DID THIS TO ME. CURSE YOU CUTE ANIME GIRL ARTISTS. CURSE YOU ORUMIRU. CURSE YOU VIRGINITY. CURSE YOU PUBERTY. CURSE YOU PERRY THE PLATIPU-oh......we are rating Shadow Tomorrow? Oh, my sweet edgy child.....


Noms:
Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed X5

 

[Jomosensual]

Lyn

Chance 0 - Don't think this is going to happen. First, I have a hard time seeing any AT promotions that dont have massive waves of support behind them. Unfortunately for Lyn, she's Fire Emblem, which is a series that likely won't get someone with that much hype behind them ever again. Think FE is done with reps for this game too

Want 50 - Dont really care either way here. Lyn is awesome but I'm also just kinda good on what we have from FE. The salt would be equally entertaining and annoying though, so there's that I suppose.


Midna
Chance 1 - Same issue as above. The fan support just isn't there. She's not even the most popular Zelda AT. Not impossible because hey, maybe for some reason she has a huge role in BOTW 2 and they want to promote her for that but I doubt it.

Want 60 - Don't really know much about the character but she's a LOZ rep that's not a Link, Zelda, or Ganon so it's good with me. They really should get more characters in the game who aren't a version of 1 of those 3.


Skull Kid
Chance 0 - While in more demand than Midna I don't see this happening. I do not really feel like there's a chance he's going to have a big role in BOTW 2 and the fan support isn't big enough to get him considered as a potential upgrade along with Isaac and Waluigi.

Want 70 - Like I said above, I'd like a LOZ rep that's not one of the triforce trio. Skull Kid is borderline iconic enough in overall gaming(for sure iconic enough in Nintendo only) to warrant a spot. Really kinda sucks he wasn't chosen. Also his AT is annoying and it wouldn't hurt my feelings to not see it again. Same for you too Palika


Predictions
Krystal - 2.43%
Bomberman - 5.61
Shadow - 8.45

Noms
John Marston x3
Non Steve/Chief Microsoft rep x2

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't care for any of these guys. Although watching the internet burn everytime a new FE character is added is always fun.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5

 

[Lenidem]

Skull Kid

Chances: 10%, and I'm being optimistic.

Want: 100%. Skull Kid is my most wanted ever. I think Majora's Mask is a masterpiece who deserved a full character. For me, the last great Zelda game until Breath of the Wild. MM is an uncanny game with an uncanny antagonist: Skull Kid is the anti-Ganondorf, and his "moveset potential" is crazy.

Midna

Chances: 9%.

Want: 5%. Long story short, I don't like Twilight Princess, probably the least creative Zelda game on a home-console, and I don't like Midna. She's sassy, and that's all there is to say about her, until she turns into a generic beautiful woman at the very end because Disney's influence, I guess.

I don't know Lyn so I'm not gonna talk about her.

 

[NintenRob]

Did someone say Skull Kid????

Let's get the other two out of the way first.

Lyn
Chance 0%
Want 5%
I'd probably accept her if she got in, and maybe be happy if this was a brand new Smash. But this is DLC with limited spots and Fire Emblem already has so many characters. I know she's the fan favourite so from that perspective she makes sense but we just got Byleth. Maybe a Mii costume would be cool?

Midna
Chance 1%
Want 5%
Sorry Midna, I've got all my eggs in one basket and you're not it. While I do think you should be playable, I don't think it should be before the next character. I'll go into more detail why the chance score is so low in the next post, just know its not entirely because she's an assist trophy.

Now, the main attraction

Chance 40%
Want 100%

"Woah, hold on, isn't that chance score way too high? "
Be grateful it's not higher, I do have some reasoning behind it.

To put it simply, Zelda is the biggest it's ever been, it's getting spin-offs, the last game sold over TEN MILLION and even the recent remake performed exceptionally well. And next year is the franchises 35th anniversary. After over 18 years of no unique newcomers, I think now's the time that trend finally breaks. Especially with how much demand there is for one.

And I think Skull Kids got the spot already taken.

Yeah if this was a rating of getting into Smash in general, this chance score would be 100%,

Let's go over shall we.

The biggie to me that he's already been shown favour by the Smash team. He got the Mii Costume. Heck he's got two if you count the solo Majora's Mask. He's arguably got two assist trophies with the moon and himself (I'll address this later)

Majora's Mask is also Aonumas baby, he always likes to include it somewhere when appropriate, heck, in Breath of the Wild, it was stated that the Majora's Mask was the very dlc outfit decided on. If Nintendo tells Sakurai to add a Zelda character, there's a good chance he'll go to Aonuma like he did with Yabuki and ARMS.

Another thing.
HE'S GETTING HIS OWN ADVENTURE!!!!!
sure it's just DLC for a spin-off indie game but it's a clear example the impact of his popularity has caused. They could have given this adventure to anyone, but they gave it to Skull kid. And I doubt they have free reign to do whatever, stuff like this likely needed approval from Nintendo, Nintendo approved Skull Kid getting his own adventure!

so why isn't the score if he's got all this going for him?
because he's an assist trophy.

I'm 50/50 on this, The ARMS presentation did seem to avoid saying Spring Man was out because of his Assist Trophy, it was specifically because of Yabuki. Spring Man was actually treated as if he had as much chance as anybody else.

So 50% docked from the score, the other 10% comes from the fact that we do have to get that Zelda character in the first place, and Zelda was the pack bonus with the pointless ancient armour gear.


But can I talk about how much I want this? Because I really want this, he's overflowing with moveset potential, with the powers of the Majora's mask, the fairies, Hyrule Warriors, his puppets (oh yeah, don't forget that he's in Oot, Tp and HW, and Monster Hunter?) and now his abilities in Cadence of Hyrule. Of course that's still probably too new to impact Smash moveset, but who knows when Sakurai decides movesets. Also I think there's a pretty good possibility he'll be in Breath of the Wild 2. The first one already brought back Koroks and Rito, and the second one is bringing back Ganondorf. It's wouldn't be too surprising if Skull Kid showed up somewhere, especially with his popularity.

And the content he'd bring with him! I know we already have a Majora's Mask stage but the music selection is despicable. Only Termina Field? The song that's just a remix of the series main theme? Where's Clock Town? Where's Stone Tower? Where's Deku Palace? Where's Majora Battle? Majora's Mask gas my favourite soundtrack in the Zelda series is it's seriously upsetting how little songs it has in Smash. Seriously the Fierce Deity spirit battle uses Calamity Ganons theme >_>

Anyway, I think I've said all I need to.

Actually one more thing, I don't think there's this Peking order for assist trophies, they're mostly from different franchises, with completely different circumstances aside from being assist trophy. I don't think they'll refuse to add a Zelda character simply because Waluigi and Isaac aren't playable yet

Nominate Content from currently unreleased game x5

Predictions
Krystal 6%
Bomberman 16%
Shadow 7%

 

[Aetheri]

First some music to set the mood. Considering the characters involved I'd say this track would be most appropriate!

Fun Fact: The Skull Kid in Twilight Princess is the same one from Majora's Mask and Ocarina of Time! So technically we are rating two characters from Twilight Princess!

Let's talk Fire Emblem first.

Lyn

Chance: 1%
I mean never say never but I'm doubtful for assist trophies to get promoted regardless. While I'm sure Sakurai is aware of Fire Emblem fatigue that's going on, he clearly doesn't care. But the problem with Lyn is, she's not a shill pick like we've had for the past few Smash games. She is however, extraordinarily popular amoung the Fire Emblem fanbase. She's had a presence in Smash since Melee but she's never been playable but to outrank Ike, Lucina, Marth, etc who are all playable in Smash says a lot tbh. That said her demand within the Smash community isn't nearly as significant. Especially cuz 'Fie Eblum baD!'

Want: 10%
Truth be told I am sort of coming off of the aforementioned Fire Emblem fatigue, pretty much since Corrin. But this isn't just 'Fie Eblum baD!' but I just don't care for her that much as is. I can agree that I feel she deserves a spot due to being the fan favourite character and she's been around as long as Marth and Fire Marth, but I won't miss her if she's not added.

Now for the Zelda Characters

----

Skull Kid/Midna Chances: 2%
I feel both of their chances are pretty much equal. Both of them are already Assist Trophies, both of their home games already have stages in Smash (I honestly don't see them doubling up on either one although Clock Town and Twilight Palace please!!) The reason why it's higher than Lyn's is simply due to the fact that I find it kind of possible that Nintendo might approach Sakurai and urge him to add a character from the Legend of Zelda series and these two are stand outs for the series both in terms of popularity and in terms of their potential as fun fighters for Smash. And it honestly could go either way if that happens. Both had their moment in Hyrule Warriors (Midna twice btw). Either way I'd like to be hopeful but I honestly don't see it happening. I do remember during base game speculation there was this chair and pillow theory going around suggesting it could be Skull Kid, which of course turned out to be bogus, but his popularity definitely got a boost because of it.

Honestly though if any Assist Trophy gets added then there's other competition with highly requested characters like Waluigi, Isaac, and Bomberman.

Skull Kid Want: 80%
I'm definitely cool with Skull Kid getting in. I'd consider him my second most wanted Zelda newcomer. He's got a cool design, I loved playing Majora's Mask and he's a very iconic villain who is arguably the most popular Zelda villain that's NOT some form of Ganon/dorf. Having a lightweight villain character would be a nice change of pace as well. We definitely could use more archetypal tricksters in Smash and Skull Kid would fit the bill well.

Midna Want: 1000000000000%
Maybe a few too many zeros. Midna by far is my absolute most wanted newcomer for Super Smash Bros. Period! No question! I've been an avid supporter of hers since Brawl and I'll continue to do so until she's either in the game or when I'm dead! (the latter will probably happen first TT)

Twilight Princess was previously my favourite Zelda game (until BotW that is) as I always felt it was the original 3D Zelda formula (nearly) perfected! And Midna was one of the main reasons why the game was so memorable to me. At first I hated her snarkyness, and how bossy she was. But as you progress through the story you witness her development as a character, honestly one of the greatest examples of character development that I've ever witnessed! And having a partner that actually felt not just useful but consequential? I mean she's literally the title character of Twilight Princess! It was such a sad moment to see her go in the end. Still to this day I am hopeful of seeing her return to the series in some form. It was such an awesome thing to have her playable in Hyrule Warriors (then again in DLC) and can we talk about that AMIIBO!! (though it's disappointing that she's not really involved in BotW at all with the amiibo as it's just Wolf Link)

Other than the fact that she's an amazing character with an awesome, yet adorable design! I feel she'd be super fun and she's got so much to work with for a potential moveset. She's got her hair which can transform into a giant hand that can grab, punch, slam and do all sorts of massive damage. She has a mastery over dark magic and can shoot projectiles, she can warp, and then you could have her riding Wolf Link giving Smash a mounted character (I know we technically have Duck Hunt but, does that really count? I guess but we don't have any magical imps riding wolves so) As a solo fighter she could work as a lightweight grappler, which is something that Smash doesn't have a lot of. Or even if as an echo using her true form over Zelda. Replace much of Zelda's magic with her dark magic, instead of the Phantom Knight use the Twilight Hand from the Twilight Palace, possibly to grab the opponent which could lead to a punish. I would just be glad to have her playable in Smash in whichever form she happens to get. Although if given the choice I'd have her paired with Wolf Link as that gives her a decent duality between her magic and Wolf Link's feral attacks. Then we could also have a unique attack being the notable Dark Energy Attack.

But unfortunately the bandaid was ripped off super early in Ultimate's pre-launch reveals so any support she had was just stamped out immediately after her Assist Trophy was confirmed in game. And while I'm glad she's gotten such a role in Smash, it's just doesn't feel the same as actually seeing them on the roster and being able to actually use them for hours at a time and learning about their tech, instead of hoping they show up whenever I get an assist trophy, and if they do it's only for a few seconds. I guess we take what we can get.

AT LEAST I GOT DARK SAMUS AND RIDLEY!!! (who were my second and third most wanted characters going into Ultimate btw) So even though she's not playable I'm still pretty satisfied with what I got in this game. But it would still be nice for Zelda to ACTUALLY get a long overdue unique newcomer in Smash, considering it's a big enough series to warrant AT LEAST ONE. as long as it's not tingle

 

[Glaciacott]

It's kind of interesting to see fans of a character either think the character is extremely likely or extremely unlikely. I guess we find out who the optimists are in here.

Midna
Chance - 0% (less than 1% at least, but for all intents and purposes 0%)
Going to start with Midna since I think she's by far the least likely in this combo. Zelda getting a rep is fairly likely, as well as us seeing an assist trophy promotion (even if I think it will be the WAH man).
That said, I have extreme doubt Midna would be the one. Too much competition within Zelda, too much competition within Nintendo first party, and everyone is still losing it over Breath of the Wild. The only boost I could see in her favor is if the twili are somehow references in BotW2

Want - 90%
The only reason it's not 100% is because I would like to see other first parties receive Smash content that are not Zelda.
But, everything else about this character would be dope. Combine her with Wolf Link and you have sick potential for a quadruped moveset, but even if not on her own she's a pretty cool character who is baffingly absent from later Zelda games.

Majora's Mask Skull Kid
Chance - 2%
Definitely more than twice as likely as Midna. For me, this is based mainly on the fact that Majora's Mask stands as one of the most iconic aspects in all of Zelda and it stands tall with other symbols and concepts like the Triforce and the Master Sword. This pushes Skull Kid into iconic territory and one of the most glaring absences from the Zelda roster in Smash.
HOWEVER, the huge elephant in the room for me when it comes to Zelda is Breath of the Wild. While all of Zelda is popular in general, it is without a doubt the case that BotW has had massive impact and with BotW2 in the pipeline it makes this iteration of Zelda, and if Nintendo pushes Sakurai to include a Zelda character I would be surprised if it's not someone from this Zelda.
Honestly, I think the only reason an assist trophy would be promoted is if 1) it's such a stupidly popular character that makes sense as a fan-favorite inclusion (see: Waluigi), or 2) it's an Assist Trophy for a franchise/game that Nintendo wants to include and has no other competition for that spot (see: Isaac). With Skull Kid coming from Zelda, being an assist trophy AND us having the Moon assist trophy which also covers an iconic moment of his character, and Nintendo having a bajillion other characters to pull from including those from the recent critically-acclaimed and best-selling Zelda title, I just do not see this happening unless we're extremely extremely lucky.
Also, I seriously don't think that Cadence of Hyrule has any impact whatsoever, it's just a side game where the crypt devs probably wrote a list of characters they wanted to use to expand on their game. I wouldn't read too much into this.

Want - 90%
Probably my second most-wanted Zelda character, but like with Midna I'll detract 10% for the same reason. (for context, my most wanted is still Tetra, even though that's horribly unlikely.)
In general, I like Majora's Mask a million times more than BotW, so I would be way more interested in seeing that get representation. This is admittedly a case where I'm more interested in what the pass would bring as a whole and not just the character.

Lyn
Chance - 0%
The most popular female FE character, so there's definitely merit to her, but there's no way I could see this happening. In huge part because it would make no sense to me to get another pack that would add an extra stage and music list for a series already replete with content. I would imagine Nintendo would consider FE fandom sated and it's more likely to give this focus to other equally marketable series instead.
Because of this she's also traditionally a more tragic figure to me than Waluigi. Waluigi got snubbed out of playable status despite being a popular side character, but there's always potential in any new installment that he can be added since he's a recurring figure in the Mario universe. Meanwhile, Lyn is in a series where there will always be a new poster person for Nintendo to want to push and that's how we got three awakening characters before she even had a shot. And unlike Waluigi, most casual fans are content with her just being an assist trophy and there's no real push that could actually make her playable.

Want - 100%
Lyn is still my favorite FE character, and was far and above my favorite video game character back in 2003 when her game got released in the west. This changed over time as I played other games and after Uprising Palutena took her spot, but even then she remains very comfortably as one of my favorite characters ever.
Back when Brawl was announced I was certain, in part because of the new Fire Emblem stage, that we would get a Fire Emblem rep, and the discussion was whether it was going to be Lyn or Ike. Both respectable characters for me, though deep down Lyn is the one I wanted most. I still remember being slightly happy about Ike being added because it meant FE (my favorite franchise at the time) was getting more content, but that being tied to the sadness of Lyn making it in as an assist trophy. Things only got worse when Smash 4 gave us the Roy comeback and Corrin as the shill-duo of characters added before their games even came out, and they pushed the smash fanbase into its current state of Fire Emblem hate and exhaustion.
I'm one of the people that downloaded project M solely because there was a patch somewhere with Lyn as a proto-character and my god was that fun. It felt great, mainly because she was everything I expected she would be in Smash: a sword character that relies on quick draws and speed moreso than just spacing like most of the other swordies, with arrow shots for long-range poke.
This is such a cool character. The swordmaster archetype in Fire Emblem is awesome and easily my favorite class/unit in that game, especially given the sprite animations from the GBA games. Lyn takes that archetype and takes it even further with somehow more badass animations. I think most of the world would be too busy being pissed if she were added, but if that actually happened it would be sooo cool. I dream of an alternate world where Lyn was added instead of Ike in Brawl. And it's sad knowing that we're in a reality where she's objectively acknowledged as one of the standout characters across all FE characters ever but still won't likely ever get a chance at Smash.

 

[MeteoRain]

Moon Boy and the Wolf Mistress

Chance: 0%

Why? Same song, same dance, same shepherd, same sheep. Unique Zelda characters teeter on a thread as is because of the relationship between Sora Ltd. and Nintendo. Throw in the fact they're Assists and they both might as well put their head between their knees.

Want: 100%

Unless it's Tingle, I'm all for new unique Zelda fighters.

The insect railing against the heavens

Chance: 10%

It's an AT, that would normally make it a 5%.

Why is it 10?

It's pretty apparent through the tongue and cheek reveal of Byleth that Fire Emblem is going to continue expanding out of bias and obligation.

If Nintendo turns for a fan request with the catch of, it must be from "insert blank" series, I could see Lyn edging out in a last ditch attempt to appeal to the west while still increasing the number of Fire Emblem fighters.

Want: 50%

This is a double edged sword.

On one hand? ¡NO MÁS!

I firmly stand that Fire Emblem has a plethora of fighters that it's unworthy of. For every Fire Emblem character I will 0% with a flaming passion!

Save for one exception.

Lyn is basically the poster girl of the series, and the first Lord of many outside of Japan. She's practically the Chun-Li of FE.

Spoiler

That and I have this strong feeling that she'd slaughter the competitive scene like Melee's Fox and Brawl's Meta Knight combined.

 

[Calamitas]

Summon her on Pilotwings and she's the Lady of the Planes

Chance: 0%
I suppose this shouldn't be too controversal of an opinion. Fire Emblem currently has eight characters, two of which were added in Ultimate. There's absolutely no conceivable timeline where I could see them add yet another. . . or, wait, scratch that. Knowing Sakurai and his team, I could see it, but if that does happen, I severely doubt that it's Lyn. Fire Emblem in Smash has the tendency to go for only the most recent protagonist, with the sole exception of Marth, who was the very first character, and Chrom, who made it in as an echo due to overwhelming fan demand. And while Lyn has been proven to be one of the absolute most popular characters in the entire franchise, I don't think that this'll be enough to bring her into consideration for Smash.

Want: 75%
I like Lyn. Blazing Sword wasn't my first Fire Emblem - that'd be Awakening - but I did go back to play her game and liked her well enough. Plus she's very fun to use in Warriors. For Smash, I could see her bring bows and a rather distinct swordfighting style with her.

You've met with a terrible fate, haven't you?

Chance: 17%
The chance for Skull Kid is definitely there. Long-standing popularity, fan-demand, acknowledgment in his home series through both Hyrule Warriors and Cadence of Hyrule. But even so, I'm having a very hard time seeing him get a coveted Assist Trophy promotion, considering the competition consists of the likes of Waluigi and Isaac. It also needs to be mentioned that ever since Melee, the Zelda series has been heavily screwed when it comes to newcomers, and I just highly doubt that they'll stop that trend now in Ultimate's second wave of DLC.

Want: 65%
Majora's Mask may be my favourite Zelda game, but I still don't particularly care about Skull Kid as a character for Smash. The fact that he just barely does anything in the game itself, and the final boss is exclusively against the mask itself just doesn't make for much of a promising character. Even his Hyrule Warriors moveset, while fun, is something I don't really see translating to Smash all that well. That said, at the end of the day, he'd still be a new Zelda character, and one representing my favourite game at that, so I would still welcome him with open arms.

*Midna Laughter*

Chance: 6%
With regards to the Zelda series, Midna is easily a more popular character than Skull Kid, being the first game-specific character that was revealed for Hyrule Warriors even. However, as far as Smash goes, there's a far higher demand for Skull Kid. So while she does have some chances, I absolutely don't see her getting promoted to a playable fighter.

Want: 100%
Which is a shame, since Midna is probably my most wanted Zelda character. I honestly don't even care whether she'd be solo, a duo fighter with Wolf Link, or even in her true form - I want Midna. I still maintain that if Brawl had a similar approach to newcomers as Smash 4 did, we would've already gotten her back then.

Predictions:
Krystal: 4.31%
Shadow: 6.94%
Bomberman: 12.43%

Nominating Concept: A Non White/Asian Human character x5

........okay yeah and she's hot. DON'T LOOK AT ME LIKE THAT IT WASN'T ME. JAPANESE TWITTER DID THIS TO ME. CURSE YOU CUTE ANIME GIRL ARTISTS. CURSE YOU ORUMIRU. CURSE YOU VIRGINITY. CURSE YOU PUBERTY. CURSE YOU PERRY THE PLATIPU-oh......we are rating Shadow Tomorrow? Oh, my sweet edgy child.....

Lyn's 15, btw.

 

[GoodGrief741]

It's super late so I'm sorry but I'm not doing the rundown of all of the characters' previous scores, I barely made it this far fueled solely by Golden Sun music, Touhou music and Body Rock. Should I have left this for tomorrow? Maybe, but I told myself I'd do this today and I'd rather not keep piling more characters.

Spoiler: Calcs

Master Chief
19.18% Chance - 66.22% Want
Winner of predictions was Wunderwaft with 19.60%

Kratos
1.72% Chance - 59.95% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 1.50%

Isaac
22.17% Chance - 72.41% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 23.07%
Isaac is now the fifth most wanted character overall and third most wanted first party. One thing of note is that there were high expectations for his chance score, and while his fans did come out in droves, their scores were countered and in fact it was the second lowest prediction that won.

Ashley
5.57% Chance - 43.33% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 5.80%

Heavy Weapons Guy
8.06% Chance - 53.47% Want
Winner of predictions was NintenRob with a precise 8.00%. Barely missing out on extra noms by .01%, which made me wince when I realized it. Better luck next time...

Gordon Freeman
10.35% Chance - 64.13% Want
Winners of predictions were Perkilator DanganZilla5 BowserKing and DaUsername with a precise 10.00%
Another tidbit: most gave Heavy higher predictions than Gordon, but in the end Gordon beat him in both.

Reimu
24.17% Chance - 63.27% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with a precise 24.00%
Like Isaac, Reimu's chance scores were also highly polarized.

Arle Nadja
35.78% Chance - 57.22% Want
Winner of predictions was BlueEyedGrimmbat with a precise 36.00%. I think this was your first time nominating, and also your first win, so congrats! You get 5 extra noms, for use whenever.

List of extra noms

Artix 15
Awakining 5
BlueEyedGrimmbat 5
BowserKing 5
Calamitas 20
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 97
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 10
Icedragonadam 5
NintenRob 25
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 10
Ridrool64 5
Sari 10
SKX31 5
Ramen Tengoku 10
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 5
Wunderwaft 5

 

[fogbadge]

To put it simply, Zelda is the biggest it's ever been, it's getting spin-offs, the last game sold over TEN MILLION and even the recent remake performed exceptionally well. And next year is the franchises 35th anniversary. After over 18 years of no unique newcomers, I think now's the time that trend finally breaks. Especially with how much demand there is for one.

And I think Skull Kids got the spot already taken.

Yeah if this was a rating of getting into Smash in general, this chance score would be 100%,

Let's go over shall we.

The biggie to me that he's already been shown favour by the Smash team. He got the Mii Costume. Heck he's got two if you count the solo Majora's Mask. He's arguably got two assist trophies with the moon and himself (I'll address this later)

Majora's Mask is also Aonumas baby, he always likes to include it somewhere when appropriate, heck, in Breath of the Wild, it was stated that the Majora's Mask was the very dlc outfit decided on. If Nintendo tells Sakurai to add a Zelda character, there's a good chance he'll go to Aonuma like he did with Yabuki and ARMS.

Another thing.
HE'S GETTING HIS OWN ADVENTURE!!!!!
sure it's just DLC for a spin-off indie game but it's a clear example the impact of his popularity has caused. They could have given this adventure to anyone, but they gave it to Skull kid. And I doubt they have free reign to do whatever, stuff like this likely needed approval from Nintendo, Nintendo approved Skull Kid getting his own adventure!

so why isn't the score if he's got all this going for him?
because he's an assist trophy.

I'm 50/50 on this, The ARMS presentation did seem to avoid saying Spring Man was out because of his Assist Trophy, it was specifically because of Yabuki. Spring Man was actually treated as if he had as much chance as anybody else.

well remember the spin offs are due to nintendo deciding a few years ago to be more generous with their licencing, i believe both warriors and cadence were a case of the 3rd party approaching nintendo with the idea. skull kid getting his own adventure is probably more of an indicator that the guys behind cadence are fans of majora's mask. true nintendo had to approve everything but like i said the made the decision to be more generous with their ips

You've met with a terrible fate, haven't you?

wrong character

 

[Zero Suit Violet]

Lyn :

Wants : 50%

Lyn is ... A character I'm mostly neutral on, but leaning toward wanting, I'm a fan of Fire Emblem games since my childhood, and while I would prefer a mage character TBH, or someone with a new weapon from this series ... I did really enjoy playing her back in Fire Emblem Warriors ! She seems perfectly like the kind of characters I would play to be honest haha, so I would definitly be open to her, even if she's not exactly in the "wants" teritory !

Chances : 1%
I ... Don't really think we're getting a new Fire Emblem character ? With what we got, it seems like a very slim chance to be honest; while I don't see it as an imposibility, because I'm not really the one making the decisions, I have a hard time seing her join this time around

Skull Kid :

Wants : 5%

I will be honest, Skull Kid falls on the lower end of characters from Zeldas that I want, I respect him and his fan, and I'm a personal friend of the Thread owner from the Skull Kid thread, but on a personal level ... He's not a character I "hate", but also not a character I "want" at all, putting a lot of other characters before him in term of personal liking, even from his own franchise, so I wouldn't cry over it if he got in, but, I also wouldn't be specifically overjoyed, so yeah, a good 5

Chances : 5%
I don't really see him happening on this game, at least not the one people wants, the chances aren't at 0 because, Skull Kid isn't a specific character, but instead a set species of the universe, so it's totally possible to see one re-appear in the next game, but I don't think that he would be ... Specifically important to the plot, or that people would even want him compared to the MM one, so that's why I put it a bit low, but then again, I don't usually like talking about chances because I don't think I'm right placed to guess who will and won't get in

And finally .. The reason I even came to vote on this thread ...

The Twilight Princess herself ! Midna !

Wants : 100(000000000000000000000000000000000000000)%

Alright ... Let's just put this out of the way, that wants number is very accurate to how I acutally feels, Midna is my Most Wanted of all time, I have wanted her as long as I have been playing a Smash game, Twilight Princess is my favorite game of all time, and in big part thanks to this amazing character that gave the game it's name.
From her personality, her character developement, her design, or her amazing powers, I just love how this character was designed and grew with us through this amazing journey that was Twilight Princess, today I lead not only the SmahBoard Thread, but also the Twitter account, and the Discord server made in the name of brining support to her in Smash, and I'm very proud of how active this community is hehe
A brillant character from a wonderful game, she will always be truly special to me, and I'll continue to support her until she gets in, I believe firmly that if I keep my passion going with fellow Midna fans, one day she'll join in for sure hehe

Chances : 40%
This one ... May be a bit of a bold prediction, but I'm the kind to see things with an optimistic views, so bear with me
There is ... A lot of theory crafting made out of very convincing evidence left by lore books as well as interviews, and clues left in the game, that we'll get a return of the Twilight Realm/The Twilis in BOTW 2, I personally believe those theories, even if I'm cautious and keep in mind that they could be entirely false, I would honestly be surprised if the amount of talks and reference they left to TP amounted to nothing at all (And there is also the fact that a TP 2 was in the work, canceled, then brought back, two seperate times, it could be entirely possible that they'll bring it back to life while mixing it with BOTW 2, or in the waits of BOTW 2)
With that in mind, it would highly surprise me that a game that pull back the Twilis, would have no presence from the one Twili that made people want them back, Midna, she may be like Impa/Tingle and be a different character but with the same name and characteristic, she may just get a new designs, but I believe that this could be her big chance for DLC, Zelda definitly warrant a new rep, and I could see them do it like this

Now, this may be wishful thinking, buuuuut, I'm crossing my fingers on it, and I'm laying my honest thoughts here, even if it may end up false in the future, we'll see what it have in store for us !

 

[Cadillac]

Funny Mask Man and Wolf Rider.
Chance for both: 5%

Zelda has still not gotten a single new character that isn' an alternate version of Link since Melee. I see no reason for this to change as of now. Hyrule Warriors came and went and wasn't enough for Sakurai, Twillight Princess got ported to the Wii U and MM to the 3DS and still wasn't enough to convince Sakurai. Candance of Hyrule will not make a difference at this point.

While they are obviously popular in their own series, they are barely requested in Smash Circles Casual or Hardcore. This admitedly is not because of lack of interest by the gaming public, but because of a similar issue to Dixie. The characters are seen as unlikely, therefore talk and requests about them are lackluster, and the cycle repeats until SOMETHING breaks it, but it's very possible these 2 will be relegated to Assists for a looooong time. There's a small chance that they could make it in though, emphasis on SMALL.

Want For Skull Kid: 50%
I'll be honest, this is THE one Zelda character (outside of Vaati and Pig Ganon) i actually see potential in. He was the first antagonist that wasn't Ganon (and while a Pawn, of the Majora's Mask, he wasn't a pawn of Ganon) and while im not a fan of MM (from a gameplay standpoint) i would be more than okay with his inclusion.

Want For Midna: 5%
Midny on the other hand.........yeah im okay. I get that she's popular, but i never really cared for her, and for better or for worse i stumbled upon 1 or 2 Midna Craaaaaaaaazy Stans on my journey. Not the fault of the character obviously, but doesn't help that i never was fond of her either.

I already made that joke yesterday.

Chance: 1%

Look, she's popular, im not gonna deny that Lyn is really popular among FE fans. Which is surprising, while Lyn is agruably the introducion of many western FE fans due to her beign the first playable character in the first International FE game, the series was still underground and niche until Awakening's success. But even after the rise of Awakening, Fates and now Three Houses, Lyn has managed to still be among the most beloved protagonists in the series, so much so that in a poll for FE Heores in 2017, she was THE most popular Female overthrowing Lucina and the 2nd most popular character overall (Ike was an available choice in both is Path of Radiance and Radiant Dawn forms, separated they had less votes than Lyn but as one character, Ike is still the most popular FE hero in that poll).

Granted, her popularity could be assumed due to her AT that has been a part of this series in Brawl, but im not sure of that. She beat Lucina and Roy, who were playable characters in the roster for long. It would be one thing if she was among the top 10, but beign the most popular one after IKE? yeah im impressed. Not only that, she was later added in Fire Emblem Warriors, something not even Ike can say! (most of the roster in that game is based on only 3 games of the series, except Celica from Echoes) I guess the nostalgia of the 2000's kids lives on Lyn now, since many of the people that played FE7 in the GBA years ago are now grow up and compose a good chunk of interest usage, combine that with FE's more accessible and well known status helps her in this case.

As for moveset? Well, we do have many swordsmen in Smash, but we have one style of swordsplay that we don't even have? Well, more "eastern" styled swordsplay. While im not gonna call Lyn a "Samurai", "bushido" etc, her playstyle and movement and manuvers alone feel a little more at home with those terms than the usual more European-inspired aesthetic that most FE's cast is known for. For all intents and purposes, she can also basically teleport (it could just be an aesthetic choice, but the potential is there) and has a bow and arrow for long range in case you thought Byleth needed company) Project M's scrapped Lyn mod and FE Warriors are good ideas as to how she would play. If you wanted something that doesnt' feel like a FE Smash character, you will be dissapointed, but if you want something that's not close to Marth or Ike but is more simplistic and easy to grasp than Byleth and Robin and Corrin, Lyn fits right in.

So why is she so low then? Well, she hasn't starred in a new game in like, what? 10 years? When it comes to franchise like Fire Emblem, timing is key, and beign the most recent FE hero is one of the easiest ways to get in Smash............and the only one really. Honestly her only real shot was in Brawl when she still was partially "relevant", and after that i don't think she will be in Smash anytime soon. I mean i guess a remake of Elibe's games could be an easy way to bring her back to relevance, but Celica didn't get in Ultimate so im not sure that it would help that much. Not everyone can be a K.Rool, sometimes you are a Meowth: A popular and important character in their own right with great merits, but in a franchise like FE where the new kid on the block gets all the spotlight? Yeah no.

Chrom was an exception to this, and even then he only got in as an Echo, so no, i don't think this is a comparable situation.

Want: Abstain.

I was going to give this Gal a big fat 0%, but the more i think of it, i don't think i can reach a conclusion so easily.

For one hand, yes, im on the camp that firmly believes that FE is overexposed and has far too many content in Smash, not just in Characters mind you, but in EVERYTHING ELSE too (3 Assist In Ultimate while DKC only has ONE, far too many spirits to count, 4 stages while Wario Land and R.O.B get jack ****, and HAS THE MOST MUSIC IN ULTIMATE SECOND ONLY TO MARIO) and so for it to get more i would outright pissed. Having another FE character take development time in 1 of the remaining 4 spots would be baffling, and no amount of aplogists and victimization from the FE "fanbase" and ****ty memes of "HoES MaD!" would change my mind, in fact it only would make me FAR more stubborn. I hate Saber in Smash, but she wouldn'te a character from a very OVERSATURATED serie while other franchises are not even given the chance to be talked about.

But on the other, i don't hate Lyn at all. Unlike Byleth, i actually like Lyn's design far more, and i prefer a more simplistic yet unique moveset over the abundance of gimmicks Fighter Pass 1 bought (excluding Banjo) so i don't she would be a chore to play as. Also i gotta give it to Lyn for having such a massive fan support base on her side after all these years. Others like Erika have been mostly forgotten to time but Lyn has stood out. You can say it's the Assist Trophy that works as a reminder that she exists, but im starting to think this large following is REGARDLESS of the AT, not Because of the AT. So while i do not want her in Smash by any means now, i can't say i hate her either.

It's like Meowth from Pokémon. I don't care for any possible PKMN newcomer, but Meowth is welcome in my eyes (the only reason im more open to him than Lyn is because Pokémon is the largest media franchise in the world so think its representation in Smash is justified, FE...........not so much)





........okay yeah and she's hot. DON'T LOOK AT ME LIKE THAT IT WASN'T ME. JAPANESE TWITTER DID THIS TO ME. CURSE YOU CUTE ANIME GIRL ARTISTS. CURSE YOU ORUMIRU. CURSE YOU VIRGINITY. CURSE YOU PUBERTY. CURSE YOU PERRY THE PLATIPU-oh......we are rating Shadow Tomorrow? Oh, my sweet edgy child.....


Noms:
Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed X5

Searches Orumiru on twitter
Holy mother of god she's a cutie.

Anyways, time for the ratings

Best FE waifu

Chance: 3%
Not really seeing her getting in this game. She's incredibly popular amongst the FE cast, but I don't think the fans would like another FE character. Sakurai knows this as well, and Nintendo knows fans don't want more FE reps now.

Want: 68%
She's cool. Unlike the classic sword wielders like Marth and Lucina, she would use samurai techniques to fight. The 'attack and sheath' would be pretty cool. We don't have anyone in Smash like that. Though for that fighter archetype, I prefer Takamaru.

Still a better love story than

Chance: 4%
She's... niche. I haven't really seen much people that want her, and even then she's overshadowed by someone like Skull Kid. And even she gets pass Skull Kid, there's still lots of competition(The Dynamic Duo, Shadow, Bomberman, Alucard, etc.). I don't think she'll get through them, but it'll be a nice surprise. Some unrecognized AT gets to shine.

Want: 50%
Neutral. She's cool, has hair whip and possibly Wolf Link, but I don't know. For Zelda reps I prefer Ghirahim or Skull Kid more than her, and for ATs I prefer Isaac more. So yeah, she'd be cool, but I won't be particularly excited for her.

Huehahuehahuehahahaha

Chance: 8%
More likely than Midna in my opinion. Has more demand, appears more, and has a longer history. Even though the Camelot Bros and others like Bomberman might make it first, I can see him being the first AT to be promoted.

Want:75%
He's awesome. Creepy aesthetics, masks, and the idea of dropping a moon on our enemies that would have a larger hitbox is awesome. He's my second most wanted Zelda rep next to Ghirahim, and about 5th or 6th wanted from the whole ATs. Besides, I would love to hear the Clock Town music in Smash. Maybe Ikana Valley as well?

Predictions
Krystal: 6.75%
Shadow: 8.59%
Bomberman: 10.34%

Noms: Ghirahim x 5

 

[warpenguin55]

Chance for all of them: 0%
Unfortunately, it looks like assist trophies are still a deconfirmation. So while all 3 of these characters could make for good additions, I'm feeling pretty confidant in saying they're not coming.

Skull Kid:
Want: 45%
40 of my 45% is so that way I never have to see this assist trophy again. I don't really like Skull Kid much as a character, his assist trophy is so annoying I'd be happy with him being playable as long as it stays gone. And Tingle isn't coming back to replace him. F Tingle.

Lyn:
Want: 10%
I'm not against Lyn getting upgraded. However, I think that Tiki would be a much cooler pick a FE assist trophy upgrade.

Midna:
Want: 10%
I actually kinda like Minda's trophy. It's fun to have around, unlike Skull Kid's. Twilight Princess already had too much representation to the point where they wanted to change Link and Zelda's designs to ones from other games.

Noms: Rocket League rep x5

 

[Darkerik]

Lyn

Chance:30%
OK I think she has some chance to get in. I don't really know much about her, but FE is way too popular and recently in some polls she is the highest FE character

Want: 0%

I really prefer other character than a FE

Midna

Chance: 20%

Ok I think she will make it next game, at least Nintendo wants to push something related with TP game in the new Zelda game and add her with wolf link or something.

Wants: 1000000%

It is my most wanted character, she is popular but as she is just a support character I think that is why she is not a playable yet. Hope she could make it next time, I mean there is a lot of reasons she must be part of the roster, she is powerful, she saved hyrule, she is a true warrior, her art is just original and is one of the most remember Zelda characters of all times.

Skull kid

Chance : 50%

I think he can make it sooner than any other Zelda characters, I mean he has merchandise recently, he is the second villian of Zelda with most recognition, he is way too popular around the world.

Wants: 80%

He is in my top 10 of most wanted, so hope he could join to the roster soon, maybe in next smash if there is one lol. I do really love his history during the game, he was some kind of frodo with the majora's mask, he has some unique powers I mean he is probably the best in the majora's mask game. He could end termina any time he wanted.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Scatter like the wind!

Chance: 1%
Lyndis just has far too much against her. She's the former most popular Fire Emblem character but her popularity mostly came from those who started with her game. After the mega success of Three Houses I don't think she has quite the same claim to fame anymore.

Couple that with her being a Fire Emblem character which is even being acknowledged by Sakurai as having a few too many all at once now, an overall lack of fan demand, nothing to promote AND having the extra obstacle of currently being an Assist Trophy and I think her chances are scattered like so much wind.

Want: 65%
I didn't start with her game, so I imagine many feel about Lyn the same way I feel about Chrom as my first lord. Alas I lack that connection with her myself, but I've always respected the character and her importance to the fans. I just think Three Houses has likely usurped it.

That said, I have become rather fond of Lyn over the years with her being my second most played character in Fire Emblem Warriors after the aforementioned Chrom(FE:W btw is my most played Switch title so that's pretty impressive still) and I selected Lyn over Smash favourites Ike, Roy and Lucina when starting Fire Emblem Heroes, so I'm a fan of sorts.

Lyn, in all fairness is probably the Fire Emblem character I want to see most(outside maybe Anna), but after getting both Chrom and Byleth, both of whom are the protagonists of the Fire Emblem games I enjoyed most, I can't say Lyn is as big of a priority to me as she might be to more traditional Fire Emblem fans.

Skull Kiddery
Chance: 1%
Skull Kid...is not happening. Unlike most characters he's the sole poor individual that not only ended up in Assist Trophy hell, but his most famous ability is also both a stage AND it's own assist trophy.

Zelda hasn't had a true newcomer since Brawl, and Melee if we only count non clones. For whatever reason The Legend of Zelda doesn't seem to be a priority for Sakurai.

Want: 55%
I've never found Skull Kid very interesting honestly even though I love Majora's Mask.

Hyrule Warriors seemed to struggle to know what the hell to give him, with his attacks being his fairy companions for the most part although I'm relieved to see Cadence seems to have more of an idea of what to do with him.

That said, I respect that he's very iconic and although I have a whole handful of Zelda characters I'd prefer, he would still be a long overdue Zelda newcomer.

Giddyup Pup
Chance: 3%
Assist Trophy and everything that applies to Skull Kid about the Zelda newcomer also applies here. I suppose I'll throw an extra couple of percentage on her since Twili Midna is still not off the table, but the Imp form is the most famous and popular one and would be the logical one to include.

Want: 70%
Midna, like Skull Kid, isn't my first, second or even third choice for a Zelda newcomer. Heck, probably not even fourth. However just like Skull Kid I acknowledge she's far far more popular than my personal choices of Impa, Vaati and especially Tingle and whilst Twilight Princess is the only Zelda game I cannot stand, Midna was the sole aspect of that game that I throughly enjoyed.

Her moveset has a few options open to her from wolf riding to using her hair and twili teleporting and hey...we are LONG overdue a new Zelda newcomer.

 

[RouffWestie]

Skull Kid
Chance: 3%
He's a fan favorite in the Zelda community. He was added as an AT and remained one in Ultimate, so if Sakurai didn't decide to give him the jump to playable status, I don't know if that popularity is necessarily going to be acknowledged by Nintendo. It's not impossible, but I don't see it being very likely.
Want: 48%
He would please a lot of long-time Zelda fans and would help illustrate the variety of different characters the franchise has. I would like other Zelda characters more than him though. Honestly I'm content with how Zelda is represented as is, but I think Skull Kid would be decent.

Midna
Chance: 1%
She's anothe fan favorite in the Zelda community. She doesn't get discussed as often as Impa or Skull Kid. Like Skull Kid, she was an AT who didn't get willingly upgraded to playable when Sakurai decided the base newcomers, so with Nintendo in charge of picking newcomers, I definitly don't see it being very likely.
Want: 40%
Paired with Wolf Link, I'd consider her a 100% want. Their portions were a memorable aspect of Twilight Princess that made it stand out compared to Zelda entries that came before it. I'd love to see how they would work in Smash as a fully-playable character.

Lyn
Chance: 8%
She's just like the other 2, a fan favorite in the FE community. She's been an AT for 3 games in a row at this point, which makes me doubt she'd get the bump to playable now. She doesn't play the leading role any recent or upcoming FE game, so I don't feel she's got the best chance. If Nintendo did want to go back and add a fan favorite, I would see her being slightly higher than most on their hypothetical priority list.
Want: 0%
I'm not interested in her as a character. I don't have any interest in FE as is. I wouldn't really care about her inclusion.

 

[Sid-cada]

Skull Kid

Chance - 1% - I can't say how likely he is given how ATs are in limbo yet again. However, he is also yet another Zelda one-off, which also keeps his chances low. While he has quite the enduring fan base, I'm not certain he quite has what it takes to overcome the age he has when Breath of the Wild exists, especially when we should be hearing things about the sequel... someday....

Want - 40% - Skull Kid has never struck me as having an interesting move set potential. I'm more of an advocate for more of the Toon side of Zelda, with Tetra and Vaati being my major wants. I'd rather look elsewhere.

Minda

Chance - 0.25% - Take everything I've said about Skull Kid, and take away being from the most acclaimed title from the franchise until recently and being notably younger. In other words, a Skull Kid who isn't as popular, the one thing that Skull Kid really has going for him. She's definitely worse off.

Want - 40% - Largely the same as Skull Kid. I have no great care for her.


Lyn

Chance - 0% - Sakurai has gone out of his way to say that he thinks there are already too many Fire Emblem folks, and it has been proven time and again that it will always go to the promotional pick, regardless of circumstances. Lyn's popularity my do her favors in a reboot, but now she doesn't have many legs to stand on.

Want - 35% - I've had enough of Fire Emblem. I'm really only interested in Anna, and even then I think she should wait until the next game, because of how saturated she is.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

I am going to abstain on all of these characters today. For a game focused heavily on Nintendo characters, I don't have a lot of info on their franchises other than Pokemon.


Nominations: Amiya (Arknights) x5
Finally breaking 25...I should be able to get Amiya into the 150 zone in 15 days...my Arknights pull calculation skills are coming in handy.

 

[fogbadge]

However, he is also yet another Zelda one-off

no he isnt

 

[Sid-cada]

no he isnt

OK, maybe that's not quite true, but he is fairly close, isn't he?

Skull Kid's in an interesting spot, in that they're a species with a very specific individual who is important. They first appeared as a minor character in one game, had one have a major appearance in the next, and ended up with one more another minor role several years latter after a 6-game gap. None of the minor appearances even confirm if they are the same Skull Kid.

Not counting spin off-stuff like Warriors or Cadence, Skull Kid has had very sporadic appearances (if they are the same one all along), and is really only an important character in one of them. It's hard to say he's much more important outside of that one role, especially when someone like Beedle manages to be more reoccurring despite appearing 5 years latter.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance for all 3: 0.1%

Technically possible, but not happening.

Lyn Want: 100%
My favorite FE character. Still think she should've got in Brawl instead of Ike.

Skull Kid Want: 10%
He'd be cool for his fans, but not much else to say about him though since I've never played any of his games.

Midna Want: 35%
I like her character from the Let's Plays I've seen, and she'd have an interesting moveset + would get some desperately needed female representation. Never played TP though so I can't put her too high.

 

[Aetheri]

OK, maybe that's not quite true, but he is fairly close, isn't he?

Skull Kid's in an interesting spot, in that they're a species with a very specific individual who is important. They first appeared as a minor character in one game, had one have a major appearance in the next, and ended up with one more another minor role several years latter after a 6-game gap. None of the minor appearances even confirm if they are the same Skull Kid.

Not counting spin off-stuff like Warriors or Cadence, Skull Kid has had very sporadic appearances (if they are the same one all along), and is really only an important character in one of them. It's hard to say he's much more important outside of that one role, especially when someone like Beedle manages to be more reoccurring despite appearing 5 years latter.

The Skull Kid in Majora's Mask originally appeared in Ocarina of Time and later in Twilight Princess. It was confirmed to be the same individual in all three games. Even though there were other Skull Kids in OoT as well.

 

[Lenidem]

The Skull Kid in Majora's Mask originally appeared in Ocarina of Time and later in Twilight Princess. It was confirmed to be the same individual in all three games. Even though there were other Skull Kids in OoT as well.

I don't follow the interviewes, but even in-game, it's obvious that the Skull Kid from Majora's Mask is the one to which you play Saria's song and give a mask in Ocarina: he says so himself at the end of the game.

But I understand what S SIDE -cada means: he only has one major appearence.

 

[Aetheri]

I don't follow the interviewes, but even in-game, it's obvious that the Skull Kid from Majora's Mask is the one to which you play Saria's song and give a mask in Ocarina: he says so himself at the end of the game.

But I understand what S SIDE -cada means: he only has one major appearence.

I believe Hyrule Historia confirmed it was the same Skull Kid.

I wasn't arguing against him having just one major role, but clarifying that it was the same individual Skull Kid.

 

[Sid-cada]

The Skull Kid in Majora's Mask originally appeared in Ocarina of Time and later in Twilight Princess. It was confirmed to be the same individual in all three games. Even though there were other Skull Kids in OoT as well.

I guess my lack of playing Zelda games is showing...*sweats*

Ahem. While I'll give you Ocarina, Twilight's a bit more ambiguous. The only connection the two have is playing Saria's song, while looking fairly different overall. The Majora's Mask has a more "wooden puppet in a straw dress" look and simple flute. The Twilight Princess goes for a more goblin-ish vibe, with a more witch-like outfit with a more vuvuzela-like instrument with multiple horns.

Then again, I'm taking most of my info from the Zelda Wiki. If you can give me proof that the Skull Kid in Majora is the same as Twilight princess, I'll change my post, but my main point remains; he's a less reoccurring character than several others, and is only really important in one.

 

[DaUsername]

Skull Kid
Chance: 0%
He's an Assist Trophy, and therefore not happening. Despite his big fanbase, massive fan demand, and appearances in various spin-offs, none of that matters because he doesn't appear in mainline games anymore, which is the only thing that Sakurai/Nintendo seems to care about.

Midna
Chance: 0%
She's an Assist Trophy, and therefore not happening. She's also a mainline one-off, so she doesn't matter either. Who knows, maybe they'll consider her for Smash 6 because it'll give them an excuse to add another version of link.

Want for the above 2 characters: 75%
The Zelda series has been neglected in terms of newcomers for far too long. The last one we got was just a rehash of a rehash of Link, and that was twelve years ago. I've reached the point where I don't even care who we get as long as they're unique. Skull Kid and Midna are definitely the best choices out of the many potential Zelda characters.

Lyn
Chance: 0%
She's an Assist Trophy, and therefore not happening. She also isn't from the newest game, so Nintendo has no reason to shoehorn her in.
Want: 0%
She's a Fire Emblem character, therefore I don't want her.
The one good thing to come out of Project M's death is the fact that no one will ever get to play as Lyn in Smash.

Krystal prediction: 5%
Shadow prediction: 5%
Bomberman prediction: 5%

Noms: Dr. Goomba Tower x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Skull Kid Chance: 25%

Probably the one Zelda character besides Tetra, Toon Zelda and maybe a Champion with any realistic shot at this point. Fan demand for him is fairly high, not quite on Ridley or K. Rool's level, but it's up there, and it's been around since Brawl at the least. Deciding which, if any, Zelda characters could get in is weird because all of the ones we've ever had in Smash are just the Triforce wielders or alternate versions of them. No one-shot or recurring characters have ever made it, and there's very few other recurring characters besides Skull Kid and Impa, the latter of whom I don't see getting in anymore. The demand for her just isn't there and I don't think she'd get beyond being an Echo of Sheik at this point anyway.

I'm also still not convinced that Assist Trophies can't be upgraded (Springman being an Assist Trophy d idn't seem to affect his chances at all; meanwhile
Min-Min was only chosen because she was a personal request on behalf of the devs), so I don't really think that gets in the way of much.

Want: 80%

I love Majora's Mask and Skull Kid's awesome. Tetra is my most wanted by far but I'd happily accept Skull Kid as well. Let's see if they both join the battle! (Very unlikely to ever happen, I know but I can dream).

Midna Chance: 2%

As insanely popular as she is, I don't think fan demand for her as a Smash newcomer is as strong or vocal as it is for Skull Kid, and I can't recall if she's someone Sakurai's ever personally spoken of. Combine that with Zelda one-shots having never gotten in before now, and there just aren't many factors that are in her favor, here.

Want: 70%

Again, Tetra and Skull Kid take priority for me, but I absolutely adore Midna and her character arc, so I couldn't possibly say no. Also, she's a blast to play as in Hyrule Warriors, what with her army of twilight wolves. I could see translating into a Smash fighter in a number of ways, maybe by using that hair of hers, teaming up with wolf link, or even incorporating those twilight wolves again, with the final (heh ) touch of using the Fused Shadow as her final Smash.

Midna for Smash Ultimate? Not my #1 priority, but I'd be glad to see her.

Abstaining from Lyn.

Krystal Prediction: 5.07%
Shadow Prediction: 11.05%
Bomberman Prediction: 3.02%

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[7NATOR]

I'm confused on the prediction aspect? Are these characters that were already rated, or these predictions for characters that will be Rated in the future? Please don't tell me i missed the Shadow rating (I Don't pay attention to this thread)

 

[Sari]

I'm confused on the prediction aspect? Are these characters that were already rated, or these predictions for characters that will be Rated in the future? Please don't tell me i missed the Shadow rating (I Don't pay attention to this thread)

The characters that we are predicting (Krystal, Bomberman, and Shadow) will be rated once this day ends. You did not miss Shadow's day.

 

[fogbadge]

Then again, I'm taking most of my info from the Zelda Wiki. If you can give me proof that the Skull Kid in Majora is the same as Twilight princess, I'll change my post, but my main point remains; he's a less reoccurring character than several others, and is only really important in one.

thats more than dark pit

The characters that we are predicting (Krystal, Bomberman, and Shadow) will be rated once this day ends. You did not miss Shadow's day.

i look forward to giving shadow a kicking fair rating

 

[7NATOR]

The characters that we are predicting (Krystal, Bomberman, and Shadow) will be rated once this day ends. You did not miss Shadow's day.

Alrighty then, I guess I'll play the Rating Game


Skull Kid

Chances: 5%

Skull Kid is epic i guess. The Majora Mask is definitely an iconic image. His Popularity definitly blew up during Ultimate, though I beloeve it was also notable in previous Smahs games. He also getting love with Candance.

At the same time, I just don't think he's gonna happen, and honestly with the fact that they added that Armor from Zelda has the FP2 Bonus costume, it could be a sign that there might not be Zelda character

Want: 70%

I only put 70% cause I'm not sure what number to put in, as the characters I just really want are Shadow, Goku, and also Dante. Skull Kid is cool in looks and Atmosphere. honestly he would be the coolest Zelda character for me they could have. His Moveset would probably need to be improvised since he doesn't do much apparently in the canon

Midna

Chances: 5%

Midna is also Cool. She was in Twlight Princess. Good game i hear. It was on the wii. She was in Hyrule warriors base game, compared to Skull Kid taking long time to get in.

but same thing i said with Skull Kid, just not feeling it

Want: 60%

Skull Kid > Midna for me, But I do think she be cool anyway, plus It would be cool to see Zero Suit Violet get excited over her Most wanted getting in. Yes


Lyn

Chances: 1%

She's hypotehtical possible because she's a video game character, but since we just got another Fire Emblem character, and I also Assume Nintendo knew there would be alot of hating, I think We won't be getting Lyn in this game

Want: 70%

Which is shame because She's Really cool, and i honestly wouldn't mind a 9th Fire Emblem character if it was her (or Black Knight with Super Armor). She uses a Katana and no one currently uses a Katana. Though personally for Katana Users I prefer Vergil, but that's not happening any time soon. Lyn is still cool

Predictions:

Krystal: 5%
Shadow: 7%
Bomberman: 9%

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

thats more than dark pit

Dark Pit is an echo fighter of Pit and is way easier to develop than Skull Kid would be, that's why there's so many clones in Melee. They had no development time so for the final fighters they just made them re-done versions of other fighters (Pichu, Young Link, Dr Mario and Roy all fit this).

 

[Sid-cada]

thats more than dark pit

You do realize how different the circumstances are between the two right now, right?

- Dark Pit was made to be simply an alternate costume that was bumped up into what we now call an echo fighter, due to spare time at the end of development. Skull Kid would have to be fairly unique in order to get in.

- As an exention of the above, Dark Pit was a base game character, while Skull Kid would have to be able to stand alone as DLC.

- Kid Icarus has only 3 games to it's name, two of which are international, and Uprising is different enough that it might as well have been a reboot to the entire franchise. Dark Pit therefore can be seen as being in from 33% to 100% of the games. Skull Kid, again not counting spinoffs, would be in 3 out of 19 games, 20 if you count the upcoming Breath of the Wild games. That puts him at a little over 15% of games, or an even 15% if you count the upcoming sequel.

- At the time of Dark Pit's inclusion, Uprising was the most recent game in the franchise. Skull Kid hasn't appeared in a cannon game for over a decade, with a 6 game gap as of Breath of the Wild. Time right now is not on Skull Kids side, compared to Dark Pit.

That's about as many differences between the two that I can think of off the top of my head. Regardless, the two are so different I don't think you can compare their circumstances.

 

[Glaciacott]

The one good thing to come out of Project M's death is the fact that no one will ever get to play as Lyn in Smash.

It makes me happy that I was able to play a version of Project M with Lyn and Knuckles in it because it allows such a spiteful comment like this one to be completely invalidated.

 

[Calamitas]

It makes me happy that I was able to play a version of Project M with Lyn and Knuckles in it because it allows such a spiteful comment like this one to be completely invalidated.

Don't mind him, in his religion anything Fire Emblem is the literal devil.

 

[fogbadge]

Dark Pit is an echo fighter of Pit and is way easier to develop than Skull Kid would be, that's why there's so many clones in Melee. They had no development time so for the final fighters they just made them re-done versions of other fighters (Pichu, Young Link, Dr Mario and Roy all fit this).

You do realize how different the circumstances are between the two right now, right?

- Dark Pit was made to be simply an alternate costume that was bumped up into what we now call an echo fighter, due to spare time at the end of development. Skull Kid would have to be fairly unique in order to get in.

- As an exention of the above, Dark Pit was a base game character, while Skull Kid would have to be able to stand alone as DLC.

- Kid Icarus has only 3 games to it's name, two of which are international, and Uprising is different enough that it might as well have been a reboot to the entire franchise. Dark Pit therefore can be seen as being in from 33% to 100% of the games. Skull Kid, again not counting spinoffs, would be in 3 out of 19 games, 20 if you count the upcoming Breath of the Wild games. That puts him at a little over 15% of games, or an even 15% if you count the upcoming sequel.

- At the time of Dark Pit's inclusion, Uprising was the most recent game in the franchise. Skull Kid hasn't appeared in a cannon game for over a decade, with a 6 game gap as of Breath of the Wild. Time right now is not on Skull Kids side, compared to Dark Pit.

That's about as many differences between the two that I can think of off the top of my head. Regardless, the two are so different I don't think you can compare their circumstances.

yeah sure, but i never miss a chance to sump on that miserable little creep

 

[DanganZilla5]

The one good thing to come out of Project M's death is the fact that no one will ever get to play as Lyn in Smash.

Don't you think this is a bit harsh? I don't like Fire Emblem either but to say good riddance to people who are fans of a character is going a bit far. Let people support and play the characters they like.

 

[Lenidem]

I believe Hyrule Historia confirmed it was the same Skull Kid.

Maybe, I didn't read it.

I guess my lack of playing Zelda games is showing...*sweats*

Ahem. While I'll give you Ocarina, Twilight's a bit more ambiguous. The only connection the two have is playing Saria's song, while looking fairly different overall. The Majora's Mask has a more "wooden puppet in a straw dress" look and simple flute. The Twilight Princess goes for a more goblin-ish vibe, with a more witch-like outfit with a more vuvuzela-like instrument with multiple horns.

Then again, I'm taking most of my info from the Zelda Wiki. If you can give me proof that the Skull Kid in Majora is the same as Twilight princess, I'll change my post, but my main point remains; he's a less reoccurring character than several others, and is only really important in one.

Apparently it's somewhere in Hyrule Historia. I think it makes more sense if the Skull Kid in Twilight is the same as the one in Majora/Ocarina: still looking for friends to play with, and this time, with the descendant/reincarnation of his friend of old. For the aesthetic differences, I think Aonuma said in an interview that the guy from the hookshot mini-game is supposed to be a version of Tingle, so...

That being said, maybe we can continue this discussion on the Skull Kid thread?