Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DrifloonEmpire]

Case in point:

Gonna reiterate a point I made in yesterday's Heavy/Gordon rating. The key is Nintendo having a good working relationship with the party that owns the character. Nintendo has good working relationships with Atlus (via Shin Megami Tensei), SNK (via their games in general being on Nintendo systems and a lot of those old SNK games selling very well on Switch) and Microsoft (via Minecraft and general crossplay). ZUN did a collab with Kirby but doesn't really establish a working relationship with Nintendo (****, the only Touhou game on Switch is a fan game). He did release one of his games in the west, but only on Steam, and untranslated at that. Right now there isn't a working relationship, and while she could potentially get a Mii Costume I don't think she has much of a chance at all at a playable character.

 

[SharkLord]

For me it goes close to this(NOTE, this isnt how everyone does it,it's just how I process things)

0: Impossible, deconfirmed, or just so little going for them that I can't see it happening.
1-14: Very unlikely but could have a path to getting chosen, although it's not likely
15-29: More going for them than the other two categories but still not likely for other reasons
30-39: A character I could legitimately see but has a big strike or two against keeping me from feeling confident
40-49: A character who I think is a legit contender but I'm not confident on for one reason or another
50-59: A character with a good case but has some small issues keeping me from feeling great on them. 50/50 on their chances mostly
60-69(nice): A character I'm feeling confident in but has 1 or 2 things that hold me back
70-79: Very strong case, mostly the only negative is competition from others in the genre or developer
80-89: A character who I think it most likely in and it would be a small surprise if they weren't.
90-99: Based on how things are trending I'd be shocked if they weren't included. As close as possible to a lock without being one
100: Ken in the base roster

Most of my ratings are in the 0-40 range and I think I've only gone above 75 two or three times. It's mostly just about how confident you feel on what's being rated. I don't think there's really a wrong way to do it unless the numbers are either completely nonsensical or don't match with your reasoning at all

For my dark horse range I'd say the 30-49 range is just about that with it dipping into the 15-29 range for something like western reps where the biggest knock against them is one of the biggest knocks possible on them.

I mean, that would line up with how I view Reimu and my score, but I suppose that's more of a gut feeling than logic. Maybe the standard darkhorse range would be more sensible, but screw it, this is the hill I'm gonna die on.

Gonna reiterate a point I made in yesterday's Heavy/Gordon rating. The key is Nintendo having a good working relationship with the party that owns the character. Nintendo has good working relationships with Atlus (via Shin Megami Tensei), SNK (via their games in general being on Nintendo systems and a lot of those old SNK games selling very well on Switch) and Microsoft (via Minecraft and general crossplay). ZUN did a collab with Kirby but doesn't really establish a working relationship with Nintendo (****, the only Touhou game on Switch is a fan game). He did release one of his games in the west, but only on Steam, and untranslated at that. Right now there isn't a working relationship, and while she could potentially get a Mii Costume I don't think she has much of a chance at all at a playable character.

That's fair, though I'd like to point out there's actually a good handful of Touhou fangames on the Switch rather than just one, though some are either not released yet or still untranslated.

On that note, I'd like to point out that aside from the Kirby crossover, Nintendo has distributed Touhou music at Reitaisai, Touhou's own convention, so it's not like they haven't collaborated at all. Plus, it's a bit different than Valve in that Touhou is owned only by one guy rather than a large company, so it would be a bit easier to get the rights than that of Half-Life or TF2. Plus, ZUN's from Japan, so it would be easier to get a hold of him.

I'd also like to correct you on the "Only one game on Steam" thing. There's actually 12 games on Steam, obviously disregarding the demos. Sure, only AoCF is translated, but that's because ZUN doesn't even need to translate them-He's gone on record saying the fans will translate it for him in only a couple days, so why go through all that trouble if someone's just gonna do it for you? It's the same as, say MOTHER 3. There's already a lot of localized games, and the fans are willing to translate them so ZUN doesn't have to.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I mean, that would line up with how I view Reimu and my score, but I suppose that's more of a gut feeling than logic. Maybe the standard darkhorse range would be more sensible, but screw it, this is the hill I'm gonna die on.

That's fair, though I'd like to point out there's actually a good handful of Touhou fangames on the Switch rather than just one, though some are either not released yet or still untranslated.

On that note, I'd like to point out that aside from the Kirby crossover, Nintendo has distributed Touhou music at Reitaisai, Touhou's own convention, so it's not like they haven't collaborated at all. Plus, it's a bit different than Valve in that Touhou is owned only by one guy rather than a large company, so it would be a bit easier to get the rights than that of Half-Life or TF2. Plus, ZUN's from Japan, so it would be easier to get a hold of him.

I'd also like to correct you on the "Only one game on Steam" thing. There's actually 12 games on Steam, obviously disregarding the demos. Sure, only AoCF is translated, but that's because ZUN doesn't even need to translate them-He's gone on record saying the fans will translate it for him in only a couple days, so why go through all that trouble if someone's just gonna do it for you? It's the same as, say MOTHER 3. There's already a lot of localized games, and the fans are willing to translate them so ZUN doesn't have to.

Fair points, and thank you for correcting me on those releases. Nonetheless, I just don't think it's substantial enough to result in a character, especially compared to the relationships Nintendo has with other third parties who have gotten characters. Even with one-man indie games, Sakurai himself literally met Toby Fox yet all we have is a costume, and Undertale was both a worldwide success AND has both main games on the Switch (Undertale and Deltarune Part 1), something we have yet to see from Touhou.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Reimu

10% Chance

The more and more I think about Reimu, it just does not add up in my head. Yes, Reimu does have a stronger resume than most indies. Yes, she also has a bit of a cult following. But I feel Touhou is something that is particularly hard to sell people on in the west. The fact that Touhou is a blip on the radar in the west is a miracle, the franchise has never had a single game officially translated, at least out of the mainstream ones. The only mainstream Touhou game to come out in the west is on steam and still in Japanese. Overall, I would go in more depth on why this character is being overrated, but others in the thread have.

100% Want

I like Touhou's soundtrack. It is pretty fire. Not to mention, the thought of a bullet hell character seems awesome. Weaving in and out of attacks, hit like a truck and take hits like paper. Seems interesting at least.

Arle

25% Chance

The most likely Sega character that is not a sonic character. At least in my opinion. Puyo is a long runner, and it has enough of a presence in the states where it is not an outside shot like Reimu. While it still is very japanese centric, Puyo has made strides in the US, with PPT even being a solid switch title early on. It also helps that Sega is one of the companies in Smash that Nintendo has a strong working relationship with to this day.

100% Want

TBH, this is mainly cuz I think a Puyo moveset would be cool. We do not have a true puzzle character in smash, so incorporating that in would be super cool. I would love to see how they would make it work, and the fan mvoesets I have seen are dope.

Boss Rush x 5

 

[SharkLord]

Fair points, and thank you for correcting me on those releases. Nonetheless, I just don't think it's substantial enough to result in a character, especially compared to the relationships Nintendo has with other third parties who have gotten characters. Even with one-man indie games, Sakurai himself literally met Toby Fox yet all we have is a costume, and Undertale was both a worldwide success AND has both main games on the Switch (Undertale and Deltarune Part 1), something we have yet to see from Touhou.

On one hand, yes, all we got from Toby was a Mii and a song. On the other hand, Touhou has years of legacy to back it up. I suppose it's sort of a "Legacy vs. Modernity" argument. The last one that we got something out of was Banjo vs. Steve?, I think. Legacy won out there, but obviously it's not the same thing. There's also the fact that unlike with the above points, indies aren't mutually exclusive, just likely to get only one. The best-case scenario for me would be Reimu and a Western indie to appease everyone, but that's not up to me.

Reimu

10% Chance

The more and more I think about Reimu, it just does not add up in my head. Yes, Reimu does have a stronger resume than most indies. Yes, she also has a bit of a cult following. But I feel Touhou is something that is particularly hard to sell people on in the west. The fact that Touhou is a blip on the radar in the west is a miracle, the franchise has never had a single game officially translated, at least out of the mainstream ones. The only mainstream Touhou game to come out in the west is on steam and still in Japanese. Overall, I would go in more depth on why this character is being overrated, but others in the thread have.

100% Want

I like Touhou's soundtrack. It is pretty fire. Not to mention, the thought of a bullet hell character seems awesome. Weaving in and out of attacks, hit like a truck and take hits like paper. Seems interesting at least.

Arle

25% Chance

The most likely Sega character that is not a sonic character. At least in my opinion. Puyo is a long runner, and it has enough of a presence in the states where it is not an outside shot like Reimu. While it still is very japanese centric, Puyo has made strides in the US, with PPT even being a solid switch title early on. It also helps that Sega is one of the companies in Smash that Nintendo has a strong working relationship with to this day.

100% Want

TBH, this is mainly cuz I think a Puyo moveset would be cool. We do not have a true puzzle character in smash, so incorporating that in would be super cool. I would love to see how they would make it work, and the fan mvoesets I have seen are dope.

Boss Rush x 5

As I've noted a bit further up the thread, there's actually been a fair bit of official Touhou games ported to Steam, and while only one has been translated officially, it's only because the fans will make their own translations in a couple days, defeating the purpose of an official translation. Just something to keep in mind.

 

[Lasatar]

it's only because the fans will make their own translations in a couple days, defeating the purpose of an official translation.

Literally this. ZUN has been asked about official translations before, to which he says he trusts the fans to make their own, and is more confident that they'll do a good job than he is in some random localisation team (it shows too. The only game with an official translation is AoCF, and let's be real, it's pretty crappy. I personally always prefer to use the fan translation patch instead of the official translation).

 

[BernkastelWitch]

Well. May as well go touch these two since they're wanted characters for me.


Reimu Hakurei:


Chances: 30%

I do think she has a bigger shot than what most people give her. Touhou has been around since 1997, making it the oldest Indie game that is up for consideration here. The franchise is basically a juggernaut in Japan as well as a dedicated cult hit to people who are into Japanese games or Shmups. It's one of the few Indie series with 20+ games as well as a fanbase big enough in its native country that there's dedicated conventions to it. It's one of those things that even if you don't know what the hell a Touhou or Reimu is, you must have seen something Touhou related even if it's just a random person with a Cirno or Marisa avatar or something like McRoll or Bad Apple.

Touhou influenced other devs and is like a gateway for most Indie devs due to how ZUN allows fan projects. It's even an inspiration for the critically acclaimed Undertale and Toby Fox is a huge Touhou nut. One can argue the series is a sub culture of its own. Despite what people may say, Touhou has a legacy around it and ain't just some "Random modern game that got memed up".

Reimu has stuff going for her. ZUN is practically for the idea of Reimu in Smash and he is literally the easiest person to possibly negotiate for this if Nintendo and Sakurai went down this route. Unlike most other wanted Indie reps, she's been around much longer. There's a lot of material that could be pulled off her for a full fledge moveset if you count the fighting games. There's also the fact that support has increased over time once people realized she's viable and not some meme pick.

There are a few cons that hold her back. Even though she is the oldest Indie rep possible, Indie games didn't boom until much later and by then, that was around the time where Touhou's explosion of popularity didn't transfer over. There's also the fact that unless you're very Internet savvy or from Japan, Touhou is relatively obscure which while shouldn't be an issue due to characters with regional appeal already in the roster, is still something that will inevitably be brought up. Which may also bring up the question of whether what would be better: Chance it and broaden the appeal of a series outside of Japan or pick someone more simpler with more mass appeal. Most Indies people bring up have gotten their spotlight in the last decade while Reimu has been around for almost 25 years now so this will also bring up the "Old vs Modern" argument.

I'd also bring up how there's competition for character slots but let's face it: Literally everyone is gonna have that as a con against themselves so I won't bring this up. All in all, she is a lot more likely than what detractors say but it ultimately depends on what Nintendo wants and whether they'd want an Old-school Indie rep like her with an unexpected legacy or someone more Modern and recognizable to modern audiences if we get an Indie character at all.

Want: 100%

One of my most wanted fighters simply because of how much Touhou means to me. I found a ton of excellent friends off it due to how the community is, especially my BF who I adore so much. Reimu is not my most favorite character(That's a tie between Remilia or Koishi) but she's the perfect rep for Touhou if it were to ever happen.



Arle Nadja:


Chance: 35%

I'll admit, I ain't too versed into Puyo Puyo though I played a couple of games so this will be shorter than the Reimu section. I do know how big of a deal Puyo Puyo is in Japan and how it's basically a sport over there. Puyo Puyo has been slowly getting a foothold in the West due to its addictive gameplay and given how Sega already has two, technically three if you count Joker and Altus in Smash already, she would be pretty easy to negotiate for. She's more likely than people think because of how Puyo Puyo has been around since 1991.

If people bring up moveset potential than Arloe as well as other Puyo Puyo characters debuted in Madō Monogatari, a Dungeon Crawler so she has more moves to her beyond the Puyos. Puzzle reps are a dime a dozen and she is a big candidate that'd also fit the tone of Smash really well. In many ways, Arle and Puyo Puyo mirror Reimu and Touhou: A series that has been around since the 90's and has a legacy but is much more known and popular in its home country.

Of course, like Touhou, Puyo Puyo isn't exactly too known outside of Japan and most entries it had in the West in its early days got repackaged into games like Dr. Robotniks Mean Bean Machine, causing some confusion in the West and some people not realizing Mean Bean Machine is a reskinned Puyo Puyo game. So like Touhou, it would depend on whether Nintendo and Sakurai want to chance it with Puyo Puyo and help it gain its ground in the West as well as showing its legacy to people or go with something more recognizable.

Also there's direct competition in Sega too that could be against Arle. Kazuma Kiryu is a huge example of this, gaining traction over the years as Yakuza became more popular. People have also been begging for a second Sonic rep for a very long time and as unlikely as that is, it's still a viable possibility. In a way, competition is much stronger here and more tight.

Reason why she is 5% higher than Reimu is because Sega already has a presence in Smash so that bumps her up a bit.


Want: 95%

I have been slowly enjoying Puyo Puyo a whole lot as I begin to play the games. I see why a lot of people love the series and why Arle has been getting more support over the years. She would make a solid addition into Smash I would welcome with open arms. I don't have a strong personal attachment to Puyo Puyo as I do Touhou but that doesn't stop me from accepting her if she got picked in Smash.


My fingers hate typing all of this.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Kind of want to talk about this... what is the kosher approach here? How do we properly gauge reasonable chance values?

Like, I traditionally believe ratings in here are far too high, but seeing so many over 60% and even a 99% for either of these characters is ludicrous to me.

The only reason anyone should say chance 99% is because Sakurai just tweeted about that character making it in, and the 1% is to account for the unrealistic possibility that he was actually drunk and posted that tweet on a dare.

There isn't one way to go about it, a 30% for someone might be a 15% for someone else, and different people have different standards, particularly on what a 50+ score means for them and how often they dole them out.

That said, if a score seems unreasonable to you, either by itself or when related to the reasoning given, you can totally try to debate that. At least, you might get an explanation.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

There isn't one way to go about it, a 30% for someone might be a 15% for someone else, and different people have different standards, particularly on what a 50+ score means for them and how often they dole them out.

That said, if a score seems unreasonable to you, either by itself or when related to the reasoning given, you can totally try to debate that. At least, you might get an explanation.

I just don't think these explosively high scores for such a polarizing niche character are necessary (and with Reimu this has happened before). I've noticed a lot of these kind of characters tend to be overplayed when their fans flood the thread on rating day.

 

[SharkLord]

I just don't think these explosively high scores for such a polarizing niche character are necessary (and with Reimu this has happened before). I've noticed a lot of these kind of characters tend to be overplayed when their fans flood the thread on rating day.

Well, different people have different rating standards. I'm personally going off of personal believe more than hard logic-40% is probably a lot more sane than what I put, but this is the hill I've chosen to die on-But I can't speak for everyone else. Still, I let people believe what they want to believe. I'll only really pitch in if I disagree with the reasoning and/or want to clear up some misinformation.

 

[PK-remling Fire]

Just doing it for Reimu:

Chance: 20%
Although it's niche in America, Touhou had a pretty huge impact in Japan, which imo gives Reimu a significant edge over other potential indie reps. Also iirc ZUN has been in contact with Sakurai before, so it's certainly possible, though maybe not too probable.

Want: 100%
The Touhou series is very near and dear to me so I would love to see Reimu in Smash Bros. She is one of my most wanted characters at this point.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

In addition, Touhou's had a ton of crossovers, including Hello Kitty.

Wait, wasn't that an April Fools joke?

 

[Perkilator]

Here's an interesting concept for an RTC sister thread:

Would it be a good idea to just have a thread sorta like RTC, but for just trying to sell you on a character? As in, every couple days, it would cycle through characters, describe who they are, what they could bring, how they would play, etc. I think it would be a cool way to try and introduce people to new characters and games, since RTC is mainly focused on the rating, with the wants being more of a side thing.

 

[SharkLord]

Wait, wasn't that an April Fools joke?

Considering that it came out or Sanrio's Twitter and had an interview surrounding why this crossover's a thing, I think it's safe to say it's not an April Fool's joke.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Considering that it came out or Sanrio's Twitter and had an interview surrounding why this crossover's a thing, I think it's safe to say it's not an April Fool's joke.

Well then it's pretty damn bad timing if im honest, look at the Tweet's date: (and Japan does know about April Fools, the likes of Kirby and Boxboy's Japanese Twitter made a prank of them getting redesigns, and David Prodcutions, the ones behind the Jojo animated adaptation posted an image of a young Joseph Joestar fighting Alessi)

サンリオキャラクターズと東方Projectのコラボが決定☆キティが霊夢に、霊夢がキティになっちゃうよ♡グッズも続々登場予定♪続報をお楽しみにね！ #東方Project #サンリオキャラクターズ #ハローキティ pic.twitter.com/JwTob2ozye

— サンリオ (@sanrio_news) April 1, 2020

Im trying to look for official news but i haven't found an official website that reported on this.

 

[SharkLord]

Well then it's pretty damn bad timing if im honest, look at the Tweet's date: (and Japan does know about April Fools, the likes of Kirby and Boxboy's Japanese Twitter made a prank of them getting redesigns)

サンリオキャラクターズと東方Projectのコラボが決定☆キティが霊夢に、霊夢がキティになっちゃうよ♡グッズも続々登場予定♪続報をお楽しみにね！ #東方Project #サンリオキャラクターズ #ハローキティ pic.twitter.com/JwTob2ozye

— サンリオ (@sanrio_news) April 1, 2020

Im trying to look for official news but i haven't found an official website that reported on this.

【東方Project × サンリオ】
大変お待たせしました❗️
霊夢、フランドール・スカーレット 、諏訪子、チルノのコラボイラストを初公開🎀✨
他にも仲間たちがコラボ予定♪
これから続々とグッズが登場するので、お楽しみに💕#東方Project #サンリオキャラクターズ #ハローキティ pic.twitter.com/VvPWmKbghL

— サンリオアニメモバイル【公式】 (@Sanrio_Apps) July 17, 2020

The crossover was confirmed over two weeks later. I think it's official.

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[zferolie]

Gonna Abstain on Arle, at least for now. Tired and just wanna work on Reimu for now. Can I make a post later for Arle?

The SHrine Maiden of Paradise.

Chance; 55%

Reimu I think may be the most likely Indie character other then Shantae. Shantae has her foot in the door which helps, but Reimu has so much going for her. Yes, she is mostly niche outside of japan, but you cannot argue the importance of touhou for the japanese gaming scene and more. so many game developers, artists, sculptures, mucisians, animators, and more got their start in their feild through touhou fan work. Touhou has whole conventions just for it, and has had that for over a decade. It has had 20 main line games, but since ZUN allows fan games, which basically means they are spin offs like the mario sports games, Touhou s then is by far the BIGGEST GAME SERIES OF ALL TIME. That is nothing to sneeze at.

Touhou has offical games, crossovers with Kirby and hello kitty, many official manga series, hundreds of figures, and if I recall, the largest amount of fan art of any japanese series(going by danbooru at least, but i may have outdated information.)

And while some people say touhou is a general unknown outside of japan, you could have said that about many smash characters when their series first joined. Fire Embelem, Earthbound, Joker(though P5 did boost that series a lot), Game&Watch, Ice Climbers, Kid Icerus, ext.

Those factors alone I feel easily pass the qualifications needed for joining smash. the fans made up rules, as the main rule is if nintendo and Sakurai wants it. FOr that, we know Nintendo has worked with ZUN before, and ZUN has stated he would like Reimu in smash. Reimu has stared in a game with Kirby(spin off but still), and many nintendo songs and touhou songs are in those Namco Bandai Drum games. Thats all three major players having worked together before, so its quite feasible that it can happen for smash.

The only reason I do not have her higher is really I am not sure how this pass ,ay work, as part of me thinks it could just be upgrades, but thats the main thing holding me back from making her higher.

Want: 100%

I love touhou, just see my icon. Reimu would bring in so many amazing things. Great unique gameplay that coiuld involve a high projectile game and grazing mechanics, a great stage with many cameos, and some amazing music(possible many made from doujin musicians!) I would love her in.

NOM: CYnthia from pokemon x5

 

[metalhydra273]

I’ll try to keep this brief as I don’t have too much to say that hasn’t been said already, so expect me to leave out a lot of details.

Arle: 50%
Looking like a likely back half of the pass pick to me with the landmark 30th anniversary coming up, as it would be the perfect time to really push Puyo Puyo’s worldwide popularity to coincide with a new game. I haven’t seen anyone mention 2021 being close by when mentioning Arle yet, but I feel it important to bring up with Sega seemingly trying to market Puyo more since PPT. While there’s a few things going against her, she just has way too much in her favor that’s already been mentioned by others that I can’t ignore. It really just comes down to whether or not Nintendo overlooked her.

Want: 100%
If you told me this would be my most wanted character in smash last year I’d probably be very confused, but now that I know a lot more about Puyo and Arle I would love to see this happen. She has a lot of moveset potential that could make her unique and I feel like she fits a lot of the archetypes smash is lacking in (we need some more magic users imo). She could be spell focused, gimmick centric, combo heavy, I’m excited to see how Sakurai would handle it if she gets picked. It also just makes a lot of sense to help the franchise imo and if she doesn’t get in, I feel like that’s a huge balk on Sega’s part unless they opt to advertise Kiryu instead.

Reimu: 5%
Yeah sorry but I’m not convinced. The possibility is there, sure, but I honestly just feel like she’s in a similar situation to Arle but with far less going for her despite the legacy Touhou has. It could happen, but would Reimu really be a character Nintendo goes after? I’m just not confident on indie characters in general and feel like Shantae would be the main front runner at this current point in time, but maybe they surprise us once again. After all, it’s not like it couldn’t happen.

Want: 20%
While not a character I’m actively rooting for or thinking has a great shot, I wouldn’t be too opposed to her inclusion and think she could be pretty fun with the moveset possibilities she has, though my knowledge of Touhou is admittedly limited.

 

[Calamitas]

U.N. Owen wasn't her

Chance: 10%
I don't really see it. Sure, Reimu may have a long legacy, but her series has no strong ties with Nintendo, or even any kind of noteworthy presence outside of Japan. Sure, we have gotten Marth and Fire Marth back in Melee, and Lucas back in Brawl, but there's a difference there: Both are first-party characters, the Fire Emblem guys were in heavy consideration to be dropped for the Western release, and Lucas was a new character for an existing series. As an indie character, Reimu just doesn't have these caveats, and I don't really think that she'd be picked.

Want: Abstain.
No familiarity with the series. I got nothing.

Arle Nadja's Mean Bean Machine

Chance: 35%
A series with a good history, owned by a company that already has a presence in Smash. . . I can see a case being made there. However, I still don't see Arle being a guarantee or an extremely likely candidate by any stretch of the imagination. With this second Fighter Pass being treated as an extension of the first, we should keep in mind that Joker was technically already a Sega character, so it's a bit questionable if we'd get another.

Want: Abstain
Same as with Reimu. I got nothing.

Predictions:
Midna: 7.62%
Skull Kid: 19.67%
Lyn: 4.81%

Nominating Concept: A Non White/Asian Human character x5

Looking like a likely back half of the pass pick to me with the landmark 30th anniversary coming up, as it would be the perfect time to really push Puyo Puyo’s worldwide popularity to coincide with a new game.

 

[ArkSPiTFirE]

Reimu

Chance: 10% - I actually bumped this up from 5 because I think she has a path to Smash in the way of her being popular, her genre not being represented and having a great library of music. but it seems very unlikely to me she will show up as DLC. Tohou has been a series i've always heard about and absorbed through others but i've never played it myself. As big as Tohou is amongst its fans, I feel like it's not broken beyond that. If it were indy but a staple on Nintendo systems (like Shantei) my chance prediction would be a lot higher.

Want: Abstain. I've never played her games and i've no idea how she would be transalted to Smash. She's not on my radar at all.

Arle

Chance: 30% - If you'd ask me a year ago I'd say no chance, but before Byleth's reveal I saw a lot of things that made Arle make a lot more sense. As far as puzzle game reps go I think she's well up there, and she's had games where she's played as herself that add to her backlog of soruces to pull from for a moveset. However, the biggest wall for arle to get over is that her creator (or was it Puyo Puro director?) has claimed to not want her in fighting games because that's not what she's about (no source, just something I remember). That's a pretty big blow to her chances. However we've seen Square Enix say daming things about the Heros fighting each other so it's not impossible for minds to change. I don't see it happening right now though.

Want: 25% - Don't have much attachment to the character but I like her design. No idea what her moveset could be, so she's not a top pick.

 

[Simnm]

On one hand, yes, all we got from Toby was a Mii and a song. On the other hand, Touhou has years of legacy to back it up. I suppose it's sort of a "Legacy vs. Modernity" argument. The last one that we got something out of was Banjo vs. Steve?, I think. Legacy won out there, but obviously it's not the same thing. There's also the fact that unlike with the above points, indies aren't mutually exclusive, just likely to get only one. The best-case scenario for me would be Reimu and a Western indie to appease everyone, but that's not up to me.
As I've noted a bit further up the thread, there's actually been a fair bit of official Touhou games ported to Steam, and while only one has been translated officially, it's only because the fans will make their own translations in a couple days, defeating the purpose of an official translation. Just something to keep in mind.

Id argue that minecraft has a stronger legacy than banjo though

 

[metalhydra273]

View attachment 279933

Perhaps, but I'm surprised nobody at least mentioned it before me. Just makes me think if we were to get her it would more likely be saved for 2021.

 

[SharkLord]

Id argue that minecraft has a stronger legacy than banjo though

Banjo's an interesting case because he's not just close to Nintendo, he used to be a part of Nintendo. Usually I'd say closeness to Nintendo is irrelevant after Cloud and Joker, but Banjo's on a different level. Plus, he had a lot of support from both the fans and the head of Xbox. The starts pretty much aligned for him.

Anyways, what I was aiming for there was "old school vs new school" more than anything, really.

 

[Sid-cada]

Reimu

Chance - 7.5% - Touhou defines the Doujin scene. There is some overlap between them and the indie scene, though it's not quite the same thing, enough so that you could possibly satisfy two markets at once. When it comes to Doujin, though, Touhou has it all: countless remixes, many, many fan games, manga and comics, etc. As of now, there have been 17 official mainline games, 11 official spin-offs (not counting the one in the making), 9 official music volumes, and I'm not certain how many to count print works, I think Touhou has had a big enough impact to have at least some house in the running; When a convention dedicated to your fandom is the largest one for a single work, you have to pay attention to it. That said, Touhou's impact elsewhere is... questionable. Not a complete unknown, but definitely not on the same level as some what might view her as competition. While she's popular enough in both her home country and abroad that I can't completely count her out, I can't say with any certainty that she will get in.

Want - 60% - Touhou's a weird though to to me in Smash. I like the series, don't get me wrong, but it's not something I actively root for or anything.


Arle Nadja

Chance - 10% - When your game is declared an e-sport, it's apparent that it's a big deal. While not homegrown or supper famous internationally, Sega has made this franchise a cash cow, being one of their highest grossing online games (at least for 2016), so it's not completely out of left field. As of recently, Puyo Puyo Tettris was their attempt to ignite the franchise in other regions of the world, and while it worked it's cooled off for now. They may still want to strike while the iron's hot, as of now it's cooled off for now. Still, if they really want to push Puyo worldwide, the can definitely choose her.

Want - 80% - Hey, I enjoyed Puyo Puyo Tetris. I do see her as worthy of a spot, and would be happy to see her in.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[Perkilator]

I believe we should move on?

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Skull Kid and Midna from the Zelda series as well as Lyn from the Fire Emblem series.

Predict Krystal, Shadow, and Bomberman.

Megadoomer

-----

Music Post

Here are some songs to get in the mood for today's characters:

Skull Kid

Spoiler: Majora's Mask Music

Midna

Spoiler: Twilight Princess Music

Lyn

Spoiler: Blazing Blade Music

 

[Heoj]

Reimu:
Chance:15%
I dont think reimu is too likely, but noy impossible. Not too much else to say really, the touhou series just doesn't really seem too likely to hey smash representation imo.

Want: 80%
Im not too familiar with touhou and what reimu can do but ive seen some really cool moveset concepts that have really sold me on the character.

Arle:
Chance: 30%
Arle definitely has a decent chance but i feel like if we get a new sega rep they will go for a different rep.

Want: 0%
Yeh i dont really want arle much at all

Edit:eeeeehhhh, woops, didnt really know when the topics change, sorry

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on all 3. I'm tempted to do Lyn, but I'm still holding off.

Krystal: 30%
Shadow: 70%
Bomberman: 20%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×5
Sakura Shinguji ×5

 

[Neosonic97]

I'll abstain on two of them, but the third? I'm probably gonna offend a lot of people by saying this...

The first Fire Emblem Lord for many

Chance: ooooof (0)
Even if it weren't for the fact that Blazing Blade hasn't been on the minds of many people for a long time (The characters, yes, the game, no), the ONE thing Lyn would have over other Fire Emblem Swordlords has now been done by another character and I'd argue it's been done better than Lyn could possibly do it. Needless to say, because of this, I don't see Lyn getting promoted, because let's be real here: What could Lyn feasibly do that couldn't? Answer: ABSOULTELY GOD DAMN NOTHING. And of course, Fire Emblem fatigue is a thing, Sakurai admitted as such, and that's also a huge point against Lyn.

Want: ooooof (0)
Yes, that's right. I gave Lyn, one of the more popular Fire Emblem lords, double zeroes. Let's be clear here, I find the fact that people request Lyn but deride other FE Swordlords to be completely asinine- ESPECIALLY considering that the three most recent non-Echo FE characters, Corrin, Robin and Byleth, AREN'T moveset clones of Marth. Heck, even amongst the lords of FE6, I find Lyn the least enticing of the bunch: Eliwood could represent Cavaliers, and Hector could represent Armor units (He used to be one to represent Axes, but then Byleth happened). My reaction, should it happen:

Something something twisted joke something something.

Noms: Terrarian x5

 

[fogbadge]

woo zelda characters

you know what im gonna rate the two of them together as i feel they are pretty much in the same position

skull kid and midna
chances: 20% I imagine if assist trophy promotions are on the table i cant help but feel that these two might not be top of the list. i still think sakurai's got a bit of a problem with zelda and even with the whole nintendo picking characters i have no way of telling which zelda characters they would go for. both skull kid and midna have the popularity among the fandom as well as the great moveset potential but im sure how far that would get them. but if they do go for a fan favourite zelda character they i imagine they would be very near the top.

want: 100% i dont know if ive mentioned it before in my 8 years on the forum but i LOVE the zelda series and would welcome just about any newcomer from the series. well maybe not revali both of them would be characters id love to play as and they could both have amazing movesets.

nominate nate adams x5

 

[BowserKing]

Skull Kid

Chance: 20%. He is quite popular, and with Skull Kid being playable in the Crypt of the Necromancer game (as DLC), Skull Kid would make a great choice of a Smash bros Rep. While Skull kid may be an assist trophy, it should not stop him from being playable. Also since Skull Kid is a villain, that would help him out, since we need another Legend of Zelda villain.

Want: 90%. Skull Kid would totally be fun to play as, and I can already tell that if he joined the roaster, the moon would be his final smash. I can also see Ganondorf fight him, Link and Zelda in a free for all (or 3 v 1). Overall, Skull Kid would be a great choice for smash Bros

Midna

Chance: 20%. She is another popular character from Legend of Zelda, and she has some potential. She may be an assist trophy, but it should not stop her. It is also surprising that in the previous game, there is lots of playable representation of Twilight Princess, but in this game, there is none, so Midna would help bring playable representation back.

Want: 100%. She is my most wanted Legend of Zelda rep, and she would totally be a fun character to play as. Her hair attacks would give her uniqueness in the cast. Overall, Midna will be a very great choice for a Smash bros rep, and she would totally be worth playing in Smash.

Lyn

Chance: 10%. Her chance is lower due to Byleth joining smash, that and the popularity of Fire Emblem in Smash is mixed. Lyn being an assist is another reason, but this may not stop her, but I don’t see her getting in the second fighter’s pass.

Want: 55%. WIth that said, she would be a fun character to play as, and she has some deadly moves she could use in her moveset. I can see her and Ike face off against each other. Overall, Lyn would be a fun choice of a Smash bros Rep.

Prediction: Krystal (15%), Bomberman (10%) and Shadow (20%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E)

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Skull Kid
Chance: 8%
Like other characters, Skull Kid has seen demand in spite of his AT status. Skull Kid has also seen a sign of life and a sign of his fandom popularity with his addition to the Cadence of Hyrule DLC. Still, he has some competition in the department of both Zelda characters (and the obvious possibility of there not being another Zelda character in the DLC) and first party with sizeable demand. Unless Majora’s Mask comes back with a vengeance, I don’t see the bandwagon-like push for Skull Kid during base game being enough to land him a spot on the roster.

Want: 70%
I love tricksters. I love their whackiness, I love their morally gray nature, I love their bag-of-tricks arsenal and Skull Kid is no exception. Let the destruction commence, and let it be jolly.

Midna
Chance: 3%
What Skull Kid has in requests to make a case for a new old Zelda character in the middle of DLC, Midna does not. Nothing about her or a game has been given anything to make a case for why they need to reappear in Smash, and her relevance is quickly fading.

Want: 80%
I really like the Twilight Princess, both the game and the character, and her penchant for dark magic would make for a fun moveset. Honestly, I mostly want her to team up with Wolf Link since that was a cool idea that cemented Twilight Princess’ position as the edgy one.

Lyn
Chance: 3%
Fire Emblem nowadays is Three Houses, being a really well seller with an active fandom and GOTY People’s Choice Thing winner. CYL relevance is fading by the minute with Three Houses sweeping the poll last time. Lyn doesn’t have enough popularity to revisit an older game to break the cyclical nature of Fire Emblem im Smash, and doesn’t have the moveset potential to make it worth it. (Yes, everyone has moveset potential, but when the last trailer lampshaded the amount of swordfighters I think they wouldn’t go out of their way to add another one.)

Want: 10%
It would, in fact, be some kind of twisted joke.

Krystal: 23.4%
Bomberman: 18.56%
Shadow: 25.5%

Non-Video Game as Mii Costume x5

 

[Lyncario]

Midna, Skull Kid, and Lyn
Chance for all 3: 0%
I'm still on the assist trophy disconfirm train, yes, and you can't stop me. Aside from the usual stuff like "if ATs don't disconfirm in the first place, why are the ATs for Little Mac, Dark Samus, and Isabelle gone"", or how Sakurai said during Sm4sh that ATs were for characters you couldn't play, let's see. Lyn would have the case of being a shill pick for an FE7 remake. Too bad that all the info we have for FE remakes point to either FE4 (Genealogy of the Holy War) or FE6 (Binding Blade, hich is Roy's game) being the next remake. And why wouldn't they remake FE6 and FE7 togethers, considering that FE7 is a prequel of FE6? Well, 2 FE games togethers that ould be sold separatly does not seem like it will happen, especialy considering how Link's Awakening DX is a 60 dollars remake of an at most 10 hours Gameboy game on a system that had Zelda BotW as a launch title. Also here's a video that explain why an FE6+FE7 remake is a bad idea

Now, let's get to Midna and Skull Kid. Well, they have nothing to shill considering that both Majora's Mask and Twillight Princess both got a remake on 3DS and Wii U, and I doubt that we would get MM 3D HD or TP HDer now. There is the chance of one or both of them coming back in BotW2 (which would fill my heart with extreme happiness), but honestly, I don't think that Nintendo believes that BotW2 needs shilling beyond the fact that it's BotW's sequel, the best selling game in the series that made the Switch sucessfull at launch and who also got the same critical praise from both fans and critics that OOT got 22 years ago. So yeah, if any of them would get in it would be all due to fan demand, but not only is Lyn an FE character, Midna and Skull Kid share the majority of fan request since Zelda got no new characters since Brawl, meaning the the fan request for a new Zelda character is splitted between the top choices. Also many other characters are more requested. Now that I made that depressing wall of text about why none of them will happen...

Lyn not cario
Want: 90%
I think that Lyn is an amazing character and I want her to be in Smash very much. I mean, just look at my username. She's the first lord I played in FE, a series I'm a fan of, and she's one of my favorite along Hector, Ike, and Claude. She's so cool, and so great, it would be so cool to have her in Smash, plus she's an archetye of swordie that we don't have yet, as a katana weilder. She could also not only use bows, but also switch between the Mani Katti and the Sol Katti to change her playstyle in battle, one being fast and for the combos, the other slow and for kills. I just like Lyn a lot.

Wait, the vilain was the mask, not the Skull Kid wearing it? Always has been
Want: 95%
Skull Kid is a great vilain from a great game. He is such a perfect set up for the begining of Majora's Mask, and such a great hominous presence, who on top of that gets such a cool emotional bond with Link, where he ends up being such a great friend with him that he guides the Link from TP, the descendant of MM Link, to the Master Sword, as he now needs it to save Hyrule like the hero of time did so long ago. Skull Kid would be a perfect way to represent the vilains in Zelda who aren't Ganon/dorf/Demise

Link's greatest ally
Want: 100%
My absolute most wanted 1st party character, and my favorite companion in Zelda. Link's companion are such a big part of Zelda games, and Midna would be the best to represent them. She is such a great character, and having her in Smash to represent not only Link's companion, but also TP by itself, one of my favorite Zelda and games as a whole would be so amazing. If you want to ear even more about why Midna would be great in Smash, then I recommand you to check the Midna support thread made by Zero Suit Violet. And you can all be sure that I'm hoping that she will come back one day.

Predictions:
Krystal: 3.2%
Bomberman: 10.6%
Shadow: 19.7%

Nomations:
SMT rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Abstain on chance, want for all these characters is 100%

Zelda desperately needs a newcomer. It's one of the biggest franchises in gaming and it gets curb stomped by Fire Emblem. But more importantly, it needs to actually start representing the individual games themselves - the franchise overall is well represented by the Triforce Trio, but since most Zelda games are seminal titles on their own, I see no reason they shouldn't be represented as well. Enter the famous Zelda one-offs: I want those. Skull Kid is one of the most iconic villains in gaming and Midna is one of, if not the best written sidekick in the series, plus an iconic and beloved character in her own right. The fact that at least one of them isn't in Smash yet, when they had perfect timing, is baffling.

As for Lyn? Well, what better way to solve people's problems with FE than by adding a character everyone wants? That said, I actually hope FE doesn't get another newcomer for this Fighters Pass, there's already plenty, but I'm not gonna give Lyn a 0% because of that, she's freaking Lyn.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Krystal prediction: 4.31%
Bomberman prediction: 7.86%
Shadow prediction: 10.5%

the ONE thing Lyn would have over other Fire Emblem Swordlords has now been done by another character and I'd argue it's been done better than Lyn could possibly do it. Needless to say, because of this, I don't see Lyn getting promoted, because let's be real here: What could Lyn feasibly do that couldn't? Answer: ABSOULTELY GOD DAMN NOTHING.

...What overlap is there between Byleth and Lyn? They don't even wield similar weapons, let alone how they move and fight.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Abstain on chance

Midna Want: 100%

She's one of the most memorable characters in the series and would have an interesting and unique moveset. She would also solve the Zelda newcomers problem by providing the series with a much wanted character outside the Tri Force Trio.

Lyn Want: 100%

Lyn is, in many ways, the Meowth of Fire Emblem for me. Despite me thinking both Fire Emblem and Pokemon should not get a newcomer in Ultimate anytime soon, these two characters always felt undeniably missing from their respective rosters, as a result of the team always going for the newest games in the series rather than any classics (a similar case can be made for Anna and Eevee, respectively). I feel bad that one of the few FE characters I genuinely wouldn't mind seeing at this point is probably going to have her score bombed because of her series and the timing of this rating despite the character herself being excellent, so I'll give her my symbolic support.

(I'd also make a joke about my profile pic but I tend to change it at random so it wouldn't make sense down the line).

Skull Kid Want: 40%

He's not my most wanted Zelda rep, but I wouldn't mind if he got in after maybe a couple Zelda characters I wanted. I like Majora's Mask well enough to at least have fun with a moveset for him.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Skull Kid

Chance: 8%

He is one of the more requested assist trophies and is getting the spotlight again thanks to the Cadence of Hyrule DLC. But he has to deal with competition all around from more popular assist trophies to other Zelda characters. I'm almost betting on there being a BOTW 2 character and at this point I'm starting to doubt that we will see a Zelda character outside of the main three for a long time. But if there was a character that could make it, I think it's Skull Kid, maybe Tingle too but that's for another day if he ever gets nominated.

Want: 25%

Not a Zelda fan. But if I had to choose a Zelda character, Skull Kid would easily be my choice. I have seen a lot of gameplay from Majora's Mask and while I don't plan on playing it, it does appeal to me with its creepy and foreboding atmosphere. I would like Skull Kid just for the music and atmopsheric stage. But other than that, I don't have much interest in Skull Kid.

___________

Midna

Chance: 4%

Half of what I said about Skull Kid also applies to Midna. But from what I've seen Midna is not as requested and doesn't get as much attention as Skully. Majora's Mask seems to be more popular than Twilight Princess so overall I think Skull Kid would have priority.

Want: 1%

Yeah not interested. Again Skull Kid would be my first choice for a Zelda character. Twilight Princess just doesn't have the content I'm looking for when it comes to a stage and music.

______________

"Generic green haired sword user"

Chance: 2%

The Blazing Blade is notable for being the first game in the series to be localized for western audiences and Lyn herself is one of the most requested Fire Emblem characters. Unfortunately Fire Emblem has the same treatment as Pokemon where they always choose a character from the latest game. Plus I can't see her being one of the few assist trophies upgraded, especially when the Smash team themselves make a joke about too many sword users. Overall I can't see Lyn having enough to her name to be considered.

Want: 0.10%

I'm giving her the slight edge over a zero because of all the fans that would be happy and the fact that my good friend is a Lyn fan. Other than that, well, my reaction towards Byleth should suffice for how I feel.

For the love of god, give other franchises a chance. I don't care about Fire Emblem at all.


Predictions:
Krystal - 7%
Shadow - 11%
Bomberman - 18%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Sari]

Abstaining on all chance scores because I don't feel like typing out essentially the same thing three times. I'll just say that I don't think AT promotions are likely in general unless they have Banjo/Ridley levels of fan demand.

-----

Skull Kid

Want: 85%
Majora's Mask is one of my top 3 Zelda games and definitely the one that I've replayed the most. We need more Zelda characters that aren't variants of the Triforce trio and Skull Kid fits the bill for this. Also Clock Town has always been one of my most wanted Smash stages.

-----

Midna

Want: 85%
Yet another non-Triforce user as well as one of the most memorable allies to Link in the series. The fact that she can mount a wolf and attack with her hair would make her one of the most unique characters in Smash. I was down for her getting in after beating TP but even moreso after how fun she is to use in Hyrule Warriors.

-----

Lyn

Want: 95%
Yes I am well aware that FE has a ton of reps already but I don't care; I love the series and I am always down for more characters. Lyn is one of the main characters of the first FE game released to the West and is easily the FE character that most deserves to be in Smash. To this day, she is one of the most popular characters in the entire series as seen with her winning the CYL1 contest of FE Heroes along with Lucina, Ike, and Roy (all of which are in Smash already). While my true dream FE pick would be Celica, I am still completely down for Lyn finally getting her chance.

What could Lyn feasibly do that couldn't?

This is your answer:

(Plus a ton of other fast sword/bow moves)

-----

Chance predictions:
Krystal: 4.00%
Bomberman: 10.00%
Shadow: 10.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x15 (using the 10 extra noms I just got)

 

[SharkLord]

Midna:
Chance: 20%. We already have Twilight Princess representation, and she doesn't have the same support as other old characters, like Isaac, Geno, or even Skull Kid. That being said, things could always change.
Want: 50%. It would be cool for Zelda to finally get another rep, but I don't lean towards anyone too much. I probably should get back in to Zelda...
Skull Kid:
Chance: 35%. He's popular, I'll give him that. Extra 5% for being in the Cadance of Hyrule DLC. That being said, he falls into the same pitfall as Midna; Representing an old game that already has representation.
Lyn:
Chance: 5%. We already got Byleth, and that hurts the chances of any FE rep. And again, old game, already got a fair bit of representation.
Want: 80%. I like Lyn. She's got a nice design, and she'd help represent FE reaching Western shores for the first time. I actually rank her among my ideal FE reps, alongside .
While I'd rather wait until next game for another FE rep, she'd definitely be unique. As a speedy quick-draw fighter, there's now way she could be another Marth clone, and she's distinct enough in design to stand out from the crowd. She wouldn't be just another samey blue hair anime swordsman everyone goes on about.
On that note, it really irks me that for a game criticized for having a swordsman bloat, we still don't have a proper quick draw or katana user. C'mon, just one katana. Just one. It can't be that hard, can it?

Predictions:
Krystal: 5.12%
Shadow: 32.65%
Bomberman: 28.93%

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Stealth up & Guardian resistance
Chance: 0.5% for both
Currently I don't feel any confidence in Zelda characters who likely won't star in Botw2. (speaking of which, I've currently dedicated myself to finishing the first one) These two may have some popularity but I doubt it's enough to not be glossed over unless they've reached K.Rool/Ridley levels in the past. Even now there are quite a few first-parties, Assist Trophy or not who eclipse them in popularity.
Also, Skull Kid being in Cadence of Hyrule DLC likely means nothing for his chances since that game is independent. Nintendo likely just greenlit him instead of actively pushing for him.

Abstaining on want for both of them

*Unsheates blade
Chance: 0%
Lyn does have a following from what I've seen but I doubt the demand for her is anywhere near as loud as the general disdain many people have towards FE characters in Smash. Judging by how most characters from that series were each chosen, you can see that timing plays a major role. Unless they out of the blue bring Lyn back in a planned future installment she's pretty much not happening as I don't think they'll look back to her for her popularity that's been eclipsed by many other characters. Without trying to jinx anything, it also feels like we've hit the limit with Byleth and they likely won't exhaust Fire Emblem any further.

Want: 0%
...
I've acknowledged she's somewhat popular and has some dedicated fans but yeah, I don't really care. At this point, I just want my favourite Kirby character and some other 4 cool characters instead of more FE. Sometime in the future, I may even give the series a go but that will depend on if Smash won't make me tired of the franchise first.

Krystal: 2.77%
Shadow: 16.18%
Bomberman: 12.65%
Deltarune content x4
Kass x1