Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Mushroomguy12]

The one good thing to come out of Project M's death is the fact that no one will ever get to play as Lyn in Smash.

Looks like I have an excuse to post this.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

His spite was extremely unnecessary, but let's not start arguments...

 

[GoodGrief741]

Honestly I'm just impressed that I haven't seen anyone point out the Ancient Armor Mii Costume in relation to the possibility of a Zelda character, good eye on that one 7NATOR

Aside from that, Lyn and Dark Pit are great characters and they're also not real people y'all, don't troll people who like them and don't troll people who dislike them.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

His spite was extremely unnecessary, but let's not start arguments...

Agree with the sentiment even if I found it funny.

Skull Kid

10% chance

One of the few ATs that I think have any shot at a promotion. NintenRob made some solid points about how Skull Kid has a strong resume. He also has stuck around clearly more in the cultural zeitgeist than most non triforce users. He has a few hurdles tho. First, ATs. As of now, I wouldn’t say they hard deconfirm, but I do not see a promotion as super likely. There are a few that I can see as gettin promoted, namely Isaac Kid and Waluigi, but as of now it is still a knock on him. The other is competition. First off, jury’s still out on whether this is the end. I know Sakurai said he has worked on smash a long time in a row in the column, but until he outright says it’s over, it ain’t over. I can see a season 3 still. Despite that, skull kid is in a tough race to get a spot. His fan demand while high is not the highest. He also could have competition from a rep from BOTW2. I could see a character from that getting in if the timeline adds up, be it someone new or Zelda. That being said, he’s still got a solid shot.

100% want
Yeah I like him. To be fair, I was gonna rate a bit lower but the stellar write ups swayed me. I see a fun character I would love to play as from a series that could use some more love.

Midna

1% chance
Take what i said about Skull Kid, but less popular to boot. That popularity is part of what helps the little guy, and Midna, while a popular choice herself, pales to him.

100% want

Which is a shame since I would honestly rather have her. I would love a mounted character in smash, and riding wolf link into battle scratches that itch. I also have a soft spot for Twilight Princess, it was the first Zelda I beat.

Lyn
1% chance

Never underestimate FE shilling lol. But seriously, unless BB and BS get remade her case is rough. All she has is popularity, which is impressive for FE. She is super popular for western fans.

100% want

I have wanted an eastern styled sword user for ages. The quick draw style would be awesome to wield. It’s part of why I want Takamaru, it’s a big reason I want Lyn.

also she cute.

Today we continue the AT marathon with Krystal, Shadow, and Bomberman. Will they see hope like these three did? Rate them in chance and want. Next up, we got a retro day, with Takamaru, Lip, and my girl Mach Rider. Predict them.

Two announcements first tho before the day ends.

First off, there will be a noms purge after day 500 for anything under 50 noms. If ya wanna save something, ya got plenty of time to push it over the safe zone. Lots of abandoned ideas are littering the bottom area, so save them or push something new, ya got plenty of time.

Secondly, remember that there should be a support thread for characters. By day 500, any character that does not have a support thread of some sort will be purged too. I don’t want a repeat of Blue Bowser or Freddie Fish, where people were clearly unhappy. Plenty of time to make a thread.

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Krystal

Spoiler: Star Fox Music

Shadow

Spoiler: Shadow Music

Bomberman

Spoiler: Bomberman Music

 

[NintenRob]

Honestly I'm just impressed that I haven't seen anyone point out the Ancient Armor Mii Costume in relation to the possibility of a Zelda character, good eye on that one 7NATOR

Aside from that, Lyn and Dark Pit are great characters and they're also not real people y'all, don't troll people who like them and don't troll people who dislike them.

I very briefly mentioned it in my post

 

[Jomosensual]

Agree with the sentiment even if I found it funny.

Skull Kid

10% chance

One of the few ATs that I think have any shot at a promotion. NintenRob made some solid points about how Skull Kid has a strong resume. He also has stuck around clearly more in the cultural zeitgeist than most non triforce users. He has a few hurdles tho. First, ATs. As of now, I wouldn’t say they hard deconfirm, but I do not see a promotion as super likely. There are a few that I can see as gettin promoted, namely Isaac Kid and Waluigi, but as of now it is still a knock on him. The other is competition. First off, jury’s still out on whether this is the end. I know Sakurai said he has worked on smash a long time in a row in the column, but until he outright says it’s over, it ain’t over. I can see a season 3 still. Despite that, skull kid is in a tough race to get a spot. His fan demand while high is not the highest. He also could have competition from a rep from BOTW2. I could see a character from that getting in if the timeline adds up, be it someone new or Zelda. That being said, he’s still got a solid shot.

100% want
Yeah I like him. To be fair, I was gonna rate a bit lower but the stellar write ups swayed me. I see a fun character I would love to play as from a series that could use some more love.

Midna

1% chance
Take what i said about Skull Kid, but less popular to boot. That popularity is part of what helps the little guy, and Midna, while a popular choice herself, pales to him.

100% want

Which is a shame since I would honestly rather have her. I would love a mounted character in smash, and riding wolf link into battle scratches that itch. I also have a soft spot for Twilight Princess, it was the first Zelda I beat.

Lyn
1% chance

Never underestimate FE shilling lol. But seriously, unless BB and BS get remade her case is rough. All she has is popularity, which is impressive for FE. She is super popular for western fans.

100% want

I have wanted an eastern styled sword user for ages. The quick draw style would be awesome to wield. It’s part of why I want Takamaru, it’s a big reason I want Lyn.

also she cute.

Today we continue the AT marathon with Krystal, Shadow, and Bomberman. Will they see hope like these three did? Rate them in chance and want. Next up, we got a retro day, with Takamaru, Lip, and my girl Mach Rider. Predict them.

Two announcements first tho before the day ends.

First off, there will be a noms purge after day 500 for anything under 50 noms. If ya wanna save something, ya got plenty of time to push it over the safe zone. Lots of abandoned ideas are littering the bottom area, so save them or push something new, ya got plenty of time.

Secondly, remember that there should be a support thread for characters. By day 500, any character that does not have a support thread of some sort will be purged too. I don’t want a repeat of Blue Bowser or Freddie Fish, where people were clearly unhappy. Plenty of time to make a thread.

Where does this leave characters with general support threads(for example, Sony overall has one but not the individual characters) or concepts like a Microsoft rep that isn't Steve/Chief. Personally, I don't exactly want to just spam support threads for characters constantly. Not sure how that'll work with characters that I want to see rated but don't actually support either

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Shadow

Spoiler: Shadow Music

No All Hail Shadow? D: xD

Krystal

Chance: 5% - Aside from being an assist trophy, Krystal isn't in the best spot right now. While she has a decent amount of fan demand, and there is plenty of desire for a non Fox-moveset-like Star Fox rep, Star Fox as a franchise isn't in the best position right now. The series' future is up in the air, and while Nintendo tried for a BIG revival with Zero and Guard back in 2015 (even gearing their E3 gimmick around it that year) the game didn't do particularly well and Star Fox failed to gain the momentum it needed. It's now been five years since we got a new game, and even Krystal's Origin Game (Adventures) is rather controversial among the Star Fox fanbase. While she's certainly in a better place than some of Nintendo's niche franchises, the lack of recent momentum Star Fox has likely is keeping it off of Nintendo's radar.

Want: 70% - While I have little experience with normal Star Fox games, a good friend and I had a ton of fun with Adventures, and thus it holds a special place in my memories. Furthermore, the staff abilities would make for a unique mage moveset, and the moveset writes itself! Simply give all of Fox's moves in Adventures to Krystal! Plus she plays a bigger role in the non-Lylat Wars/64 plot recycled games, and would represent that half of the franchise very nicely. Overall I think Star Fox deserves it!


Shadow

Chance: 10% - Assist trophy limbo aside, Shadow stands among the Big Three assist trophies fans want promoted, alongside Waluigi and Isaac. Fan demand is certainly there and SEGA's still got a great relationship with Nintendo, so we'll more than likely see another SEGA rep at some point. Shadow's played a pivotal role in several Adventure and Modern-era games so he's got plenty of history to him. It just depends on whether or not SEGA wants to add another rep from their games and whether or not to promote Sonic again. Puyo Puyo in the west along with Yakuza worldwide are becoming SEGA's rising stars and they could very well opt for one of them instead. Though, Sonic is still SEGA's bestseller by FAR, and with the fan demand, the money is certainly there. It all depends on whether or not he's on the radar.

Want: 80% - Sonic is the only third party with perfect attendance since Brawl and has more than earned another slot on the roster. I would absolutely LOVE another Sonic rep, being a huge fan of the series. While I'd personally prefer Eggman, Tails, or Knuckles, I would be very happy with Shadow. Furthermore, Shadow's debut game represents the moment Sonic made the jump to Nintendo systems, which I think would be a very fitting thing to represent.


Bomberman

Chance: 5% - Bomberman's in a similar position to Shadow, being an assist trophy with a lot of fan demand (though not as much as one of the titans). That said, it depends on Konami getting another rep and what they'd want to promote next. They got Snake back this game alongside newcomers int eh Belmonts, so they may see themselves as having enough characters for now. It really just depends on if Nintendo and Konami want to act on the fan demand.

Want: 30% - Not a character I have experience with, but I think he could bring a lot to the roster with an entirely bomb-based moveset. I'd be interested in seeing how Sakurai implements bomb placement into the core of a character (granted we have a bit of that with Snake but it's just one small part of his moveset).



Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Takamaru - 3.58%
Lip - 15.64% - Expecting some overrates due to the NSO SNES release for Panel de Pon
Mach Rider - 2.49%

 

[Jomosensual]

Krystal
Chance 0 - No real fan support since her deconfirmation kills her dead. Probably not in the top 15 most requested first parties anymore. Also believe the latest Star Fox game bombed so I doubt Nintendo is looking to push her soon

Want 0 - Star Fox has enough at 3 characters. Any more than that is pushing it for me. At least the other over repped series make sense to some degree with Mario being the top series, Pokemon having somewhere around 900 options and being insanely popular, and FE getting a new cast every game and being a favorite of Sakurais. Overrepping a series like Star Fox doesn't really have any logic to it.


Shadow
Chance 0 - Only way I see this happening is if we get an echos pack. Will we get an echos pack? Well, since everything is getting delayed on Nintendo's end as it seems and any extra dev time they might have had is likely gone, I'd put a ton of money on the answer being no.

Want 60 - Which is a same because I'd take this. Sonic has enough good/popular characters that they could easily get another one or 2 and not feel wrong or out of place. I'm still mildly surprised that Shadow wasn't made into an echo fight for the base roster.



Bomberman
Chance 0- Maybe a front runner for Konami, but the fan support isn't big enough to touch Isaac or Waluigi and I think that's what it's going to come down to if we get a promotion at all from the world of ATs. Also think that he's for sure behind Alucard in Konami's depth chart right now and that kinda does him in since we're probably not double dipping on 3rd parties in this pass.

Want 50 - Don't really care either way. Dont mind the AT but have no real feelings on the character. Moveset could be fun I suppose


Predictions:
Takamaru - 2.21%
Lip - 1.23%
Mach Rider 10.52%

Noms
Jin Sakai x3
John Marston x2

 

[SharkLord]

Krystal:
Chance: 10%. She's popular, but a Star Fox rep might not be prioritized at the moment. Unless a Star Fox game releases for the Switch, I don't see that franchise getting another rep, and even then they might not have enough to bring with them if it's just one game.
Want: 50%. I may not be into Star Fox much, but Krystal seems pretty cool. A magic user in a mostly sci-fi setting sounds pretty interesting, and a spear/staff user would be pretty nice. Plus, she seems to have a pretty major role in the series, so I could see why she'd be added, if she was.
Shadow:
Chance: 50%. Shadow is undeniably pretty popular, and Sonic is a pretty major franchise. I could definitely see Edgy the Hedgy get a spot in the roster based on that alone. There's two things that drag his chances down, though. One is competition from other Sega franchises, such as Sakura Wars, Yakuza, and Puyo Puyo. Sega and Nintendo may prioritize a new series over one that's already represented. The other is he might not have enough to bring with him. While he's got it better than most supporting characters, since he has his own game and Sonic is fairly underrepresented, I'm mostly worried about the Spirits. Based on the Spirit Board, I'd say Dr. Eggman would have the edge over Shadow, since he's got all the Badniks and bosses. Still, I wouldn't underestimate Shadow.
Want: 80%. I may not be as big a Sonic fan as I used to be, but the want is still there. Shadow was one of my earliest most-wanteds alongside Bandana Dee, and I do believe Sonic deserves more representation. If Shadow gets into Smash, I'll be the one bringing drinks for the party.
I'd also like to point out that Shadow wouldn't work as anything less than a semiclone; His moves are too distinct for that. I can understand the Spin Dash and Homing Attack, but I can't see Shadow throwing out splits, scissor kicks, and wind-up punches. That's definitely not Shadow at all.
Abstain on Bomberman; I don't know enough about the series to say.

Predictions:
Takamaru: 4.87%
Lip: 10.98%
Mach Rider: 3.45%

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Today we're rating the three genders: male furry, female furry, and terrorism

All three are abstains on chance and 100% want

I'll keep saying this until it stops being true: Shadow is such an obvious Echo that him not being in is outright poor game design. Sonic deserves a second rep, it's had perfect attendance since Brawl and it's also huge and iconic and all that jazz. So, yeah, let's get Shadow in Smash please.

Krystal, sadly, is hurting for a future, as Star Fox itself is in limbo right now and given its recent history there's no guarantee that a comeback would feature the post-64 canon (which may or may not be what keeps making these games bomb, just saying...) Krystal's fandom isn't what it used to be as a result. However, it's not all doom and gloom. She must have done well on the ballot to warrant her AT. And she'd bring us a cool female character, a staff wielder, and a non-clone SF character. Plus with her, I think that's perfect representation for Star Fox, so why not seal the deal?

Finally, the iconic Bomberman. Seriously, this guy is pretty much a Nintendo icon. He fits right in as a Smash character, could bring a cool, gimmicky moveset or a simple and minimalistic moveset depending on how they do him, reps a new genre. Bomberman pretty much created a genre, actually, the games are classics. He deserves to be in Smash.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5

Takamaru prediction: 7.42%
Lip prediction: 9.88%
Mach Rider prediction: 5.31%

I very briefly mentioned it in my post

Oh sorry, didn't notice. Then, good eye!

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. I just really think Shadow should've been Sonic's Echo.

Takamaru: 5%
Lip: 20%
Mach Rider: 10%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x3
Sakura Shinguji ×2

 

[Sari]

Bomberman

Want: 100%
One of my longest Smash requests to the point where I wanted him back in the pre-Brawl days. Both Bomberman 64 and Bomberman Hero are two of the earliest games I remember playing. They were both a ton of fun while Bomberman Hero in particular is one of my most nostalgic games. It's a shame they didn't make other games in the series like Hero because I just loved that game so much. As for Bomberman himself, he's one of those colorful and fun characters that would fit so well into Smash that you'd forget he was third-party. He has a ton of moveset potential through his bomb techniques and even some of the unconventional tools he has in games like Hero. If there is one assist trophy that gets promoted I really hope it is the White Bomber himself.

-----

I'm abstaining on everything else because I'm not in the mood right now and I just wanna gush about how I love Bomberman.

Chance predictions:
Takamaru: 5.00%
Lip: 7.50%
Mach Rider: 4.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[SharkLord]

I'd like to argue against Shadow being a Sonic Echo. At the very least, he'd be a Wolf-esque heavy semiclone. They may play the same in SA2, but future games withe expanded movesets had them diverge quite a bit. Sonic's the swift, speedy one (Well, speedier) and a bit of a showoff, while Shadow favors raw power and is serious and straightforward. I can't really see Shadow doing splits and wind-up punches in battle while maintaining his serious image.

 

[NintenRob]

I'd like to argue against Shadow being a Sonic Echo. At the very least, he'd be a Wolf-esque heavy semiclone. They may play the same in SA2, but future games withe expanded movesets had them diverge quite a bit. Sonic's the swift, speedy one (Well, speedier) and a bit of a showoff, while Shadow favors raw power and is serious and straightforward. I can't really see Shadow doing splits and wind-up punches in battle while maintaining his serious image.

This is the same game that had Dark Samus as a full on echo and Ganondorf debut as an echo of Captain Falcon.

Shadow as an echo would be minor in comparison

 

[SharkLord]

This is the same game that had Dark Samus as a full on echo and Ganondorf debut as an echo of Captain Falcon.

Shadow as an echo would be minor in comparison

Ganondorf was a clone back in Melee, and Sakurai generally doesn't like going back on movesets. As for Dark Samus, she (They? It?) wasn't a major request, and they were also a literal clone of Samus, so it would at least make some sense to make 'em an Echo. Shadow isn't a literal clone of Sonic, though, and his fighting style is different. While DS could be a lot more unique, it would at least make sense to use the arm cannon. I can't really Shadow doing stuff like the spinning headbutt, the upward toss-into-quills throw, the splits, etc. It just wouldn't match up.

 

[7NATOR]

OH BOY I"M SO READY!!!

Krystal

Chance: 4%

I'm giving her higher than 1 or 2% because she was considered for Brawl, so that's something to take into consideration, but i don't think her time is now,especially with the state of Starfox. even though Atlas did good, i don't even think Krystal was in it

Want: 50%

Nothing much to say about Krystal. I will say that the Sniper Rifle she has in SSF2 is cool as all heck and we should have something like that in Smash


Bomberman

Chance: 10%

I think in terms of Popular Assist Characters, I do think Bomberman is up there, especially apprantly for tha Japanesse audience. He has legacy and it was dissapointing for him to just be an assist

I do think one thing to consider is that Konami got a BRAND NEW Costume in the form of Goemon, without getting a DLC Character, and the fact was that this came in Banjo's Pack, which was the same time where Extra DLC was revealed. If Bomberman was in the pass, one could say Goemon would be saved for his Pack

However I Don't think it deconfirms him anyway, and considering that Konami did get new characters base game, and all 3rd party costumes were DLC, it could be because of that. Kinda hard to judge.

But otherwise, I do think he has a shot, more than people are giving him

Want: 60%

I liked Playing him in SSF2 (got to play the game again soon), and he's cool. He throws Bombs. It's fun to bomb people you know.


SHADOW THE **** HEDGEHOG

Chance: 100%

Shadow is in, I tell you guys Right Fricking now. I Have talked to the universe, I've talked to myself from the future, Ive talked to all those people. I've seen the signs, I've been giving the word of Playable (Unique) Shadow since Ultimate started, where i knew my mission was to Educate the people of The coming of Shadow the Hedgehog in Smash.

He is So in, and If he's not, I will Put My own Underwear in my mouth. I've been wrong on him being base roster, But I don't think I am wrong in him being playable at all. He will be Playable

Going into more evidence for his inclusion, He's definitly One of the most popular Assist Requests and definitly has been. If you've seen all the mod videos and Miiverse Post you would know.

Sakurai has a thing for Edge like, Rival Characters. Dark Pit, Meta Knight, Wolf, etc kinda proves this, especially the former too since those are his creations. I think also it was pretty telling that he called Iori's Design, "Genius"

While Nintendo is said to choose the DLC, I think Sakurai has more of an influence then people might think, this video (Made when Joker was only DLC) explains it

Now this is not to say all the characters are choosen the same way, but I wouldn't be surprised if Like how Joker was chosen, and probably also how Terry was chosen, that there are some characters Sakurai picks himself, and Nintendo is the one just giving a Green Light.

Now Having said all that, it doesn't mean Sakurai is in love with Shadow or anything, But there is some inference to be made that he might

On the topic of his Assist Trophy, The fact he got a major upgrade in function and Animation is also something to consider, while other Old Assists did not get much of an upgrade except in necessary animations. Attention was made to get Shadow more authentic. He wasn't just cast aside or just ported. Says something

Shadow is very easy to re-purpose in terms of animations and stuff, due to already having an AT Model and also being close in physicality to Sonic. Now this doesn't mean I think he would be an echo, Far from it, I'm just saying it could be easier to develop him due to all that.

Moveset Wise, Shadow wold probably have the Flashiest moveset in the game, and among commonly speculated characters. The only characters I think could be more Flashy is Dante, Sora, and maybe Geno (cause he has all the lasers). Multi-teleports for DBZ like Combos, Chaos Spear that could be accuratle displayed in Smash in multiple Unique ways, Time stopping Shenanigans more akin to Geras from Mortal Kombat and less as a Counter move like Bayonetta, Teleportation also being mixed in for Mix-ups, like Teleporting while charging a Smash attack to counter someone attacking, The Skates on his Shoes could also be used. Perhaps one of his taunts could summon guns. His Similiarity to Sonic also could benefit him since he could get attacks like the Boost Attack, Light Speed Dash, and Black Tornado which could have unique concepts and stuff. The meter stuff from either Shadow the Hedgehog or Sonic 06 (and Sakurai actually has played those game) could be implemented as well

Sonic is an Iconic Franchise. even if some of his games have been medicore, they still have Popularity, along with Sonic still being in other media like Sonic Boom, Mobile Games, Comics, The Movie etc, and Shadow is the 2nd most popular Sonic character, and is Very Iconic Character.

There's a Mii Costume theory i have (different from the Previous Mii Costume Theory) that could point to several characters, and Shadow could Potentially be one of them, however to go into depth into that, I will come back later and post that to here



WANT: 5000000000000088309489358049503495039403909003!%

I Want Shadow so Freaking Bad. The only other Character I want as much is Goku...or Vergil, But both of those aren't happening. Dante is Cool though so I say i want him. Sora too, but Shadow over anyone else. He's one of the coolest characters ever. even if his Character in Spinoffs and the comics have not been done the most justice, He's still a Cool Presense.

I Would not want Shadow in Smash as an unique character if i didn't think he would be cool, But I honestly think he'd be one of the coolest characters Implemented into Smash. Lots of Sick moves, Lots of Swag, And that's why I got so mad when people wanted him as echo, because i felt like they were coming at my life and the life of other Shadow brothers that really wanted Shadow to be his own character. That's why for Ultimate I went to war like every week, every day it would seem during Base game Speculation.

The truth is that Along with as much I want Shadow in Smash, Talking to to others about Shadow in Smash and debating is Probably some of the most Fun I've had In my years of Living, and that is no Joke. I have gotten roasted For all me shenanigans when it came to Shadow, but I don't give no Hoots, I'm speaking the realest Thoughts. When it comes to talking about Shadow, I feel like Im the 2Pac of the Smash Community, speaking the real truth and everything. PapaGenos and Fatmanonice, they don't believe in Shadow. I don't care. I don't need any Insiders, Psuedo Insiders, Non-Credible insiders, whatever to go ahead and tell ME that Shadow is in the game, Cause i already know that he will be in this DLC. IT would help and I'll use that as evidence if that ever comes out.

I guess I should also mention that if Shadow is in (I know i said he is in, but honestly i know people are looking at me crazy so I also say if), He would probably be the last character. Shadow is very controvirsial. He's very Popular, but he also gets alot of hate.

The fact that he doesn't come form a Brand new franchise someone like Arle would, The fact that he potentially gets in over Tails, Knuckles and Eggman might also bring up Controversy, The fact that Him being an assist Trophy is something to consider, especially if Waluigi is not in. There's also the fact that Many people probably do feel he should only get in as echo, so if he got in with unique moveset, there's gonna be some complaining about how they should have use that time towards another character instead of "Black Sonic", even though Shadow is not Black Sonic. Maybe he's Sonic Black, like how Goku Black is too Goku, and that just proves my freaking Point. SHADOWSIDE!

 

[GoodGrief741]

They may play the same in SA2, but future games withe expanded movesets had them diverge quite a bit.

Yeah but that also applies to Ken and Ken's an Echo.

As for Dark Samus, she (They? It?) wasn't a major request

We were literally told that she got in because of the Ballot.

 

[fogbadge]

lets see then

the ultimate life form turned out to be a grumpy little blighter

chances: 40% at the moment it still looks like ATs may not be getting any promotions, thats not to say it cant happen but im just not sure it will. that said as the second most popular sonic character i feel that would give a bit of a boost when it came to looking for another sonic character. though i would argue that tails or eggman would make more sense. his popularity did save him from being a one off character so his popularity is effective.
want: 0% i dont like shadow. i dont care if hes a clone or he has a unique moveset i would be severely a deeply disappointed by his inclusion. i would much rather have most other sonic characters.

the character who very nearly wasnt a nintendo character

chances: 10% what i said about ATs applies here as well but i dont think shed be that high on the list. sure shes got some popularity but sakurai considered her briefly but she was rejected in favour of wolf. although that was cause he was looking for someone to clone fox plus i think he likes the rival archtype. star fox as a series seems to be in an odd place at the moment and i think that would in turn affect the odds of any new star fox characters. right now her fans might be the only thing she has going for her and i dont think itll be enough.
want; 0% there may have been a point where i would have been ok with her but not any more. im not sure theres really any star fox character i particularly want in smash but even then shed be very far down the list.

gonna abstain on bomberman but for the record even though ive never played any of his games i think hed be a rather neat character to have

nominate nate adams x5

 

[Cadillac]

Abstain on Krystal and Shadow.

Bomberman
Chance: 8%
I can see it happening. Long and popular franchise from Konami, and with how they gave a lot when we got Castlevania, Bomberman being promoted isn't just a pipe dream to me. The hurdle would be the Camelot Bros, as they have more requests and had a noticeable outcry. But I can see Sakurai putting Bomberman in instead of them.

Want: 90%
Bomb like traps all over the place? Neat. Simple, cartoonish designs and vibrant colors? My favorite! Bomberman would be my 3rd most wanted AT to be promoted, next to Isaac and Takamaru. In Super Bomberman R, there are 8 Bomber bros, so we already have alt costumes! If that happens, I want to play as Aqua. She's so cute.

Yeah, she's my favorite.

Prediction
Takamaru: 6.35%
Lip: 8.28%
Mach Rider: 5.4%

Noms: Ghirahim x5

 

[Aetheri]

Ganondorf was a clone back in Melee, and Sakurai generally doesn't like going back on movesets. As for Dark Samus, she (They? It?) wasn't a major request, and they were also a literal clone of Samus, so it would at least make some sense to make 'em an Echo. Shadow isn't a literal clone of Sonic, though, and his fighting style is different. While DS could be a lot more unique, it would at least make sense to use the arm cannon. I can't really Shadow doing stuff like the spinning headbutt, the upward toss-into-quills throw, the splits, etc. It just wouldn't match up.

Dark Samus was added due to her demand....familiarity with the character shows how much different she'd actually play than Samus based off of her appearances in the Prime Trilogy if given the adequate time. Shadow debuted playing exactly the same as Sonic plus like Dark Samus and Dark Pit are compared to their counterparts his build is close enough to that of Sonic that if he were to be made playable it would more than likely be as an easy to make echo. Probably given a different Up B, however. Every echo fighter can be given a unique moveset if time allowed, but in most cases its echo or not at all. If Shadow were to be playable he would most likely not be an exception.

 

[Lyncario]

Chance for all 3: 0%
Once again, they're all ATs, and I believe that ATs disconfirm. On top of them being ATs, let's see. Shadow could work as an echo or semi-clone, but seeing Sonic's alts, I doubt that Sega would accept a Sonic character who is not Sonic, and that's not talking about Sega series who are unrepped. Krystal has very low relevance, and I don't think that Nintendo is even thinking about adding a new Star Fox character in Smash. Bomberman must have already been a pain to get as an AT with how Konami is, and I feel like Jimmy and Billy from Contra would come before them if we got another Konami rep.

Want
Shadow: 80%
Shadow is cool and would bring Sonic content that we don't have in base game fir some reason. And also a stage that would likely not be another Green Hill, but with Sega, this is not a guarantee. But yeah he's cool, and he has a certain edge to him.

Krystal: 60%
She could have a cool moveset and bring a good stage. I'm not too atached to her or Star Fox games, but she would be alright.

Bomberman: 60%
A moveset for Bomberman could be really cool if done well, but also really meh if done bad. He could also bring a very fun and chaotic casual stage. So yeah he would be cool.

Edit: I forgot about predictions and nominations again.

Predictions:
Takmaru: 1.4%
Lip: 2.1%
Girahim: 5.6%

Nominations: SMT rep x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Krystal

Chance: 4%

She is requested and likely would be the next Star Fox charatcer chosen. However Star Fox is not in a good spot right now with the latest entry not doing very well and the series' future is up in the air. Plus I don't think Krystal would be within the top 3 likeliest assist trophy upgrades.

Want: 1%

I'm fine with the Star Fox content we have (Except for Orbital Gate Assault, please bring that back). Krystal just doesn't interest me at all.

_____________________

Shadow The Edgehog

Chance: 10%

I think Shadow is one of the more likely assist trophy upgrades. I'm shocked that Sonic doesn't have a second rep. That's blasphemous. It's an Iconic series that still has plenty of new content they could introduce. Shadow could easily be unique and he has the added benefit of being echo fighter material if they wanted to add in a few extra echo fighters. Though he would work better as a unique character in my opinion. But what really hurts his chances is that if we haven't gotten another Sonic character by now, that tells me that Sakurai is not prioritizing making any further Sonic characters as playable characters. It feels like he's satisfied with the Sonic content we do have which is a big hit to any character in this franchise. And to clarify, I do think a third party series could get a second unique character. I'm just not sure if it will be Sonic despite it being Sonic the ********* Hedgehog.

Want: 60%

My want for Shadow has dropped after the base game. I do think he would be fun and Sonic does need another rep. But I do have other priorities when it comes to supporting characters.

_________________

A guy who is a bomber

Chance: 15%

I believe people don't bring up Konami enough when it comes to speculation. And this is one of many reasons. While Bomberman's requests have went down since his assist trophy reveal, he is still requested and iconic. While Bomberman does have competition from other Konami characters, I think he is one of their more likely ones. I think he is one of the more likelier assist trophy upgrades as well. Bomberman has a legacy, Nintendo history, and would be a great fit for Smash.

Want: 65%

My relationship with Bomberman is weird and meme-worthy.

Basically, I do like Bomberman. He comes from a respectable franchise brimming with personality. He would have a fun trapping-based moveset and a really fun stage.

But, I haven't played any of his games. I've seen plenty of gameplay footage and the games do look real fun. I've been tempted to get one of the games and I've had the chance to do so even when they were on sale. But I just haven't. It's probably just me prioritizing other games but what's even weirder is that I remember when Bomberman was revealed as an assist trophy, I told one of my good friends that I wanted Bomberman to be playable. The thing is that especially back then I wasn't even thinking about Bomberman that much and I wasn't actively supporting him. What was I thinking?

But to end off this odd anecdote, I would enjoy seeing Bomberman become playable and maybe that will be the final push to finally try out one of his games.


Predictions:
Takamaru - 5%
Lip - 7%
Mach Rider - 7%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Opossum]

Krystal
Chance: 0%
Nintendo is picking, and they seem intent on burying anything post-64 for Star Fox. There's no way they'd pick Krystal, especially when her demand has all but dried up.
Want: 1%
There are many characters I'd prefer. Hell, even among Star Fox characters, I'd prefer Slippy and Peppy.

Shadow
Chance: 0%
This one's pretty cut and dry. Sakurai said we're not getting echoes in DLC. And frankly, getting in as an echo was Shadow's only chance to get in at all, as far as I'm concerned.
Want: 0%
I'd prefer Tails and especially Eggman. It doesn't help that I feel like they'd have to use his modern personality which basically throws away all the likeability he had pre-Shadow the Hedgehog 2005.

Bomberman
Chance: 3%
The best shot of the bunch, but not by much. Has legacy and minor demand, so he gets a non-zero.
Want: 10%
I respect his legacy, but him getting in would be a death knell for Frogger. And you know how much I love Frogger.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Krystal peak
Chance: 0.1%
Starfox has seen better days and Krystal as a character hasn't shown up in a game since what, Command? Demand for her also quickly fell off after she was confirmed to be an Assist Trophy when Ultimate was first shown. To be clear, being an Assist Trophy doesn't have to count as a deconfirm but a character has to have something big going for them to be upgraded. In most cases Nintendo likely sees the AT role as good enough as is and I don't think a Starfox character is in a good position for an upgrade.

Want: Abstaining

Dyk the Bomberman anime plagiarised the Seinfeld theme?
Chance: 0.5%
Like Krystal, Bomberman went out early as an AT with support dropping quickly and not much has changed for him since. There's a whole sea of third-party characters out there (even Konami still has things like Contra or Frogger and stuff) so being an AT puts him in a bad spot and makes it likelier he'd be skimmed over. Don't see much reason why Nintendo wouldn't already be satisfied with how he's represented.

Want: 5%
Never really tried out his games. I'm sure most are decent but Bomberman doesn't look interesting as a fighter. I don't really like the sound of Bombs: the moveset. Even his SSF2 incarnation is pretty boring imo. There are third-parties I just want more, in Konami's case Alucard for moveset potential and Frogger as a great wtf pick.

Black creature
Chance: 1%
I get that Shadow's a super popular request even with him being an AT for the third time in a row but I have trouble seeing a Sonic double dip over some other SEGA character such as Arle or Kiryu. Besides that, the Sonic franchise seems like it's not being represented as well as it could be so part of me wonders if there's something holding it back behind the scenes, be it negotiations or a lack of interest. As for Shadow himself, sure he's the most popular character after Sonic himself but he might not be as iconic or unique as the likes of Tails or Eggman. Those characters can really work as original fighters while Shadow feels more like echo material to me which definitely aren't happening anymore. Sakurai might want him but it could be a different story for Nintendo. Again, they might look at the Assist Trophy and think "Yeah that fits him well, let's do someone else instead."

Want: 0%
As a Sonic fan, Shadow doesn't do it for me. Could be because I haven't played the games where he's more prominent or for me not taking the franchise as serious as others but Shadow is not my pick for a second Sonic character. As an original character I'd prefer Eggman, as an echo I'd prefer Metal. Then there's Tails, which to me feels like a stranger omission and heck, I'd even prefer Knuckles for an upgrade over Edge the Ow.

Takamaru: 4.33%
Lip: 11.77%
Mach Rider: 6.18%
Hades x5

 

[BowserKing]

Krystal

Chance: 15%. While she may be an assist trophy, it counts as a promotion for her. Krystal may have a bite of a chance of becoming playable, but Skull Kid and Midna are more likely to get promoted.

Want: 100%. While she is not in my top 10 most wanted, She would totally be a fun character to play as. Plus it would be about time a new Star Fox Rep joined the fight. Also Krystal has a staff, giving her uniqueness, not only for the Star Fox reps, but the roaster overall. She would be great choice, and I support her getting in.

Bomberman

Chance: 10%. I’m giving Bomberman the 10% rating because that while we have three Konami reps, a fourth one would not hurt. Plus Konami is still already well represented in Smash Bros, but more representation would not hurt.

Want: 95%. Bomberman would totally be a fun character to play as, and his bombs would help him take down many foes. I can see him face off against Snake, Megaman and R.O.B, amoung others. Overall, Bomberman would make a great choice for a Smash Bros Rep.

Shadow

Chance: 20%. Shadow is one of the most popular characters that is an assist trophy, and his chance is quite high, compared to other characters. Thing is, we have 3 Sega reps, but second Sonic Rep is more likely then most Sega reps.

Want: 100%. While I’d prefer it if Knuckles got in before Shadow does, Shadow would still be a fun character to play as. I can see him face off against Dark PIt and Dark Samus in a free for all, but also see him and Sonic have a rematch. Overall, Shadow would be a fun choice for Smash bros, and Shadow am make a great Echo for Sonic.

Prediction: Takamaru, Mach Rider and Lip (10%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E) and 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

 

[Lenidem]

Can I skyp the probablity rate? I'm not good at that.

Krystal

Want: 85%

I didnt' have fun playing Starfox Adventure, but the Starfox serie deserves better than three clones and Krystal might be the one that stand out from the rest of the cast. Sure, Peppy and Slippy might be more important, because more recurring and part of the main crew. But it would be wierd to have one without the other (I think it's already wierd to have Falco and not the other two: he's not more important or memorable). Besides, Krystal is different, because she come from a very different game.

Shadow

Want: 60%

I don't play Sonic games, so I don't really know Shadow. But it's really, really wierd that Sonic is still alone after Brawl, and for Wii U/for 3DS. From the little I know about this serie, I think I would have chosen Tails and/or Eggman first. But as an Echo, Shadow seemed to be a no-brainer and should have been in the base game. Unfortunately, now is too late, I guess.

Bomberman

Want: 65%

Again, someone I don't really know. But he's famous and his games have a great reputation, so to me he's kinda like Simon Belmont or Ryu: an iconic character from a serie I never actually played, but whose quality is recognized and therefore deserves a spot. Plus he's cute!

 

[SharkLord]

Yeah but that also applies to Ken and Ken's an Echo.

We were literally told that she got in because of the Ballot.

Ken's not just an Echo, though, he's the Echo. That's what everyone thinks if him as. Dark Samus is a bit of an oddity, since she has a lot to work with, but generally it makes sense for them to use their arm cannon. Just look at Sonic forward smash, or his down smash. I can't really picture Shadow doing those without breaking character. Besides, Wolf was a semiclone back in Brawl, and even Isabelle became a semiclone rather than an Echo in Ultimate. I think Shadow has more precedence in becoming a semiclone than an Echo.

OH BOY I"M SO READY!!!

Krystal

Chance: 4%

I'm giving her higher than 1 or 2% because she was considered for Brawl, so that's something to take into consideration, but i don't think her time is now,especially with the state of Starfox. even though Atlas did good, i don't even think Krystal was in it

Want: 50%

Nothing much to say about Krystal. I will say that the Sniper Rifle she has in SSF2 is cool as all heck and we should have something like that in Smash


Bomberman

Chance: 10%

I think in terms of Popular Assist Characters, I do think Bomberman is up there, especially apprantly for tha Japanesse audience. He has legacy and it was dissapointing for him to just be an assist

I do think one thing to consider is that Konami got a BRAND NEW Costume in the form of Goemon, without getting a DLC Character, and the fact was that this came in Banjo's Pack, which was the same time where Extra DLC was revealed. If Bomberman was in the pass, one could say Goemon would be saved for his Pack

However I Don't think it deconfirms him anyway, and considering that Konami did get new characters base game, and all 3rd party costumes were DLC, it could be because of that. Kinda hard to judge.

But otherwise, I do think he has a shot, more than people are giving him

Want: 60%

I liked Playing him in SSF2 (got to play the game again soon), and he's cool. He throws Bombs. It's fun to bomb people you know.


SHADOW THE **** HEDGEHOG

Chance: 100%

Shadow is in, I tell you guys Right Fricking now. I Have talked to the universe, I've talked to myself from the future, Ive talked to all those people. I've seen the signs, I've been giving the word of Playable (Unique) Shadow since Ultimate started, where i knew my mission was to Educate the people of The coming of Shadow the Hedgehog in Smash.

He is So in, and If he's not, I will Put My own Underwear in my mouth. I've been wrong on him being base roster, But I don't think I am wrong in him being playable at all. He will be Playable

Going into more evidence for his inclusion, He's definitly One of the most popular Assist Requests and definitly has been. If you've seen all the mod videos and Miiverse Post you would know.

Sakurai has a thing for Edge like, Rival Characters. Dark Pit, Meta Knight, Wolf, etc kinda proves this, especially the former too since those are his creations. I think also it was pretty telling that he called Iori's Design, "Genius"

While Nintendo is said to choose the DLC, I think Sakurai has more of an influence then people might think, this video (Made when Joker was only DLC) explains it

Now this is not to say all the characters are choosen the same way, but I wouldn't be surprised if Like how Joker was chosen, and probably also how Terry was chosen, that there are some characters Sakurai picks himself, and Nintendo is the one just giving a Green Light.

Now Having said all that, it doesn't mean Sakurai is in love with Shadow or anything, But there is some inference to be made that he might

On the topic of his Assist Trophy, The fact he got a major upgrade in function and Animation is also something to consider, while other Old Assists did not get much of an upgrade except in necessary animations. Attention was made to get Shadow more authentic. He wasn't just cast aside or just ported. Says something

Shadow is very easy to re-purpose in terms of animations and stuff, due to already having an AT Model and also being close in physicality to Sonic. Now this doesn't mean I think he would be an echo, Far from it, I'm just saying it could be easier to develop him due to all that.

Moveset Wise, Shadow wold probably have the Flashiest moveset in the game, and among commonly speculated characters. The only characters I think could be more Flashy is Dante, Sora, and maybe Geno (cause he has all the lasers). Multi-teleports for DBZ like Combos, Chaos Spear that could be accuratle displayed in Smash in multiple Unique ways, Time stopping Shenanigans more akin to Geras from Mortal Kombat and less as a Counter move like Bayonetta, Teleportation also being mixed in for Mix-ups, like Teleporting while charging a Smash attack to counter someone attacking, The Skates on his Shoes could also be used. Perhaps one of his taunts could summon guns. His Similiarity to Sonic also could benefit him since he could get attacks like the Boost Attack, Light Speed Dash, and Black Tornado which could have unique concepts and stuff. The meter stuff from either Shadow the Hedgehog or Sonic 06 (and Sakurai actually has played those game) could be implemented as well

Sonic is an Iconic Franchise. even if some of his games have been medicore, they still have Popularity, along with Sonic still being in other media like Sonic Boom, Mobile Games, Comics, The Movie etc, and Shadow is the 2nd most popular Sonic character, and is Very Iconic Character.

There's a Mii Costume theory i have (different from the Previous Mii Costume Theory) that could point to several characters, and Shadow could Potentially be one of them, however to go into depth into that, I will come back later and post that to here



WANT: 5000000000000088309489358049503495039403909003!%

I Want Shadow so Freaking Bad. The only other Character I want as much is Goku...or Vergil, But both of those aren't happening. Dante is Cool though so I say i want him. Sora too, but Shadow over anyone else. He's one of the coolest characters ever. even if his Character in Spinoffs and the comics have not been done the most justice, He's still a Cool Presense.

I Would not want Shadow in Smash as an unique character if i didn't think he would be cool, But I honestly think he'd be one of the coolest characters Implemented into Smash. Lots of Sick moves, Lots of Swag, And that's why I got so mad when people wanted him as echo, because i felt like they were coming at my life and the life of other Shadow brothers that really wanted Shadow to be his own character. That's why for Ultimate I went to war like every week, every day it would seem during Base game Speculation.

The truth is that Along with as much I want Shadow in Smash, Talking to to others about Shadow in Smash and debating is Probably some of the most Fun I've had In my years of Living, and that is no Joke. I have gotten roasted For all me shenanigans when it came to Shadow, but I don't give no Hoots, I'm speaking the realest Thoughts. When it comes to talking about Shadow, I feel like Im the 2Pac of the Smash Community, speaking the real truth and everything. PapaGenos and Fatmanonice, they don't believe in Shadow. I don't care. I don't need any Insiders, Psuedo Insiders, Non-Credible insiders, whatever to go ahead and tell ME that Shadow is in the game, Cause i already know that he will be in this DLC. IT would help and I'll use that as evidence if that ever comes out.

I guess I should also mention that if Shadow is in (I know i said he is in, but honestly i know people are looking at me crazy so I also say if), He would probably be the last character. Shadow is very controvirsial. He's very Popular, but he also gets alot of hate.

The fact that he doesn't come form a Brand new franchise someone like Arle would, The fact that he potentially gets in over Tails, Knuckles and Eggman might also bring up Controversy, The fact that Him being an assist Trophy is something to consider, especially if Waluigi is not in. There's also the fact that Many people probably do feel he should only get in as echo, so if he got in with unique moveset, there's gonna be some complaining about how they should have use that time towards another character instead of "Black Sonic", even though Shadow is not Black Sonic. Maybe he's Sonic Black, like how Goku Black is too Goku, and that just proves my freaking Point. SHADOWSIDE!

Okay, as the guy who placed Reimu at 80% when she should be closer to the 30-50% range, this is very heavily biased. Nobody is 100% likely until they're actually revealed, and going that far is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Abstain on Chance for all three.

Krystal

Want: 100%

I miss the days when Krystal was pretty much on par in terms of popularity with Ridley and Rool in the fandom (her and Dixie were the popular female requests while they were the popular villain requests). I still want to see her in the game, like Sora, Lloyd, Isaac, and Waluigi, Smash Flash really showed how interesting her moveset could be in the context of Smash, and she would be a wholly unique Star Fox character on top of that.

Shadow

Want: 70%

I'd give it slightly to Tails in terms of who I want for a 2nd Sonic rep, but Shadow certainly isn't very low on my list either. I felt bad when they literally revealed his AT at the very last second, especially after everyone assumed the Knuckles AT was his replacement. His moveset in Smash Crusade is interesting enough for me to consider him.

Bomberman

Want: 85%

After Mega-Man and Pac-Man got in Smash 4, I always thought this guy was next. Alas, we got an AT and two Castlevania characters instead. Like Krystal, he has an interesting moveset in Smash Flash that shows his potential and I think his franchise has been a Nintendo mainstay long enough for him to be more than deserving.


Man I just realized all three of these characters are on popular flash Smash fan games.

 

[RouffWestie]

Krystal
Chance: 1%
She had a sizeable demand following Brawl, but Starfox itself recently hasn't had many rousing successes. She got added as an AT, along with the return of Wolf, so I doubt Nintendo would suddenly go back to another Starfox character for any reason. I think her addition as an assist was all she was bound to get in Ultimate.
Want: 75%
She's fun to play in Crusade from what I remember. I wouldn't love seeing her, but her distinct fighting style and design would make her stand out in Ultimate's current roster. She would be a decent pick all things considered.
----------
Shadow
Chance: 1%
He is the 2nd-most popular character in the Sonic fanbase. He would be an easy inclusion since he can be heavily developed from Sonic. However, he's been an AT since Brawl, and nothing about his status has really chamgrd, so it seems likely Nintendo just isnt that interested in capitalizing on that.
Want: 80%
I really like Crusade's Shadow. I would feel confident Sakurai and co. would give him a playstyle that would be unique and true to his character. If he doesn't happen now, I would hope to see someone mod him in.
----------
Bomberman (Yep, it's him)
Chance: 0%
He's the star of a recognizable franchise with many titles across gaming history. He was intentionally shown off as a guest AT in Ultimate's first direct, so I get the impression Nintendo nor Konami weren't necessarily open to him possibly being promoted if more development time became available. I think his AT + spirit is all he's going to get this time.
Want: 70%
I've played many Bomberman games, so I feel familiar enough with him that he'd be a decent inclusion. He's another character I played in SSF2 and liked due to how clever his mechanics were. I feel he'd be given a really distinct playstyle if he was ever added to an official Smash.

 

[7NATOR]

Ken's not just an Echo, though, he's the Echo. That's what everyone thinks if him as. Dark Samus is a bit of an oddity, since she has a lot to work with, but generally it makes sense for them to use their arm cannon. Just look at Sonic forward smash, or his down smash. I can't really picture Shadow doing those without breaking character. Besides, Wolf was a semiclone back in Brawl, and even Isabelle became a semiclone rather than an Echo in Ultimate. I think Shadow has more precedence in becoming a semiclone than an Echo.

Okay, as the guy who placed Reimu at 80% when she should be closer to the 30-50% range, this is very heavily biased. Nobody is 100% likely until they're actually revealed, and going that far is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

Perhaps, Maybe I am going to far in my own hype. Don't worry I'll come back here later today and discuss all of this more.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dinosaur Planet
Chance: 1%
Poor Krystal.

She's been through the ringer. Between having her game highjacked by Fox McCloud, being relegated to a love interest rather than a lead and despite her overall popularity being ignored in favour of Wolf in Brawl, and finally being retconned out of the series of recent due to them focusing on the primary four Star Fox members, prequels and reboots, Krystal has largely been left by the wayside.

She does have a very passionate fanbase, but with Starfox as a whole being on slightly shaky grounds, Krystal missing from Starlink and Star Fox Zero and her currently being relegated to Assist Trophy, I can't see an opportunity for her to make the leap to playable character.

Want: 55%
I'm largely indifferent to Krystal. I respect her fanbase for being passionate and enthusiastic about her since he introduction, but if I'm honest I actually would prefer Slippy to her with a moveset based off Starfox Guard and it's various turrets and traps over Krystal's magical staff and dino friends.

The edgiest 50 year old
Chance: 5%
Shadow the Hedgehog is the second most popular character in the entire Sonic canon(so quoth Eggman in the hilarious Sonic Boom animated series). He's had his own game which had some interesting ideas and lots of ridiculous tone deaf aspects.
Shadow's a pretty easy to do character overall if we use Sonic as a base, he's super popular and would sell like hotcakes. He'd also make perfect sense as a second Sonic rep.

Honestly this is probably the most likely third party Assist Trophy overall, although I still don't think assist trophy characters have much of a shot.

Want: 0%
Truth be told once upon a time I really liked Shadow in Sonic Adventure 2 when he had a narrative purpose. But unfortunately everything since has made me like him less and less as he's become more saturated. His game, for the record, I found actually quite fun even though it cemented Shadow as laughably edgy and ironically childish with it's obsession with him dropping occasional swear, weilding guns and motorcycles and his morality being completely pliable by an outside force.

The Sonic series in general became far darker when Shadow appeared and it's this direction that I feel has made Sonic fail horrifically over the years.
Sure we'd touched on it with Chaos, but after Shadow's success we had Sonic 06 in which Sonic DIES, Shadow attempting to destroy mankind in his own title, the apocalyptic storyline of Sonic Forces and amusingly darker story in Sonic Chronicles.

To a lesser extent, and maybe a more personal one: Tails and Knuckles got displaced from playable status in favour of Shadow which I feel also messed things up pretty bad for the series as a whole.
This doesn't seem like that big of a deal and may seem like I'm griping that my preferred Sonic cast got replaced but Sonic and Shadow do play pretty much identically in most titles, whilst Tails and Knuckles allowed for more exploration options as well as different levels of difficulty due to their superior mobility options. Sonic Advance showcases this particularly well with Tails as very easy mode with his flight, Knuckles as a easy mode with his gliding and climbing, Sonic as a normal mode and Amy who can't even spindash as a hard mode option.

Tails or Eggman would be my second Sonic character of choice. I can see Shadow happening, I'd just rather he didn't until we have at least those two and maybe Knuckles first.

BOOM BABY!
Chance: 1%
Bomberman is as out of luck as all the other assist trophies. He's not happening. Konami now own him due to Hudson Soft merging with them and Konami...aren't great at handling their properties if we're honest.

On the bright side he has crossed over with Wario before so there's some precedent for Bomberman being buddies with Nintendo characters.

Want: 95%
Alright, growing up I had a few video game characters I was attached to before I hit my late teens: Mario, Sonic, Spyro and Bomberman. Bomberman was actually the one I played the most overall and I have fond memories of trapping my friends with bombs and watching the panic. Bomberman is a character I'm not entirely sure will translate brilliantly to Smash, but after seeing his assist trophy in action I immedietly wanted the little mad bomber as a playable instead.

Maybe next time.

 

[Lenidem]

Ken's not just an Echo, though, he's the Echo. That's what everyone thinks if him as. Dark Samus is a bit of an oddity, since she has a lot to work with, but generally it makes sense for them to use their arm cannon. Just look at Sonic forward smash, or his down smash. I can't really picture Shadow doing those without breaking character. Besides, Wolf was a semiclone back in Brawl, and even Isabelle became a semiclone rather than an Echo in Ultimate. I think Shadow has more precedence in becoming a semiclone than an Echo.

Okay, as the guy who placed Reimu at 80% when she should be closer to the 30-50% range, this is very heavily biased. Nobody is 100% likely until they're actually revealed, and going that far is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

You forget about Daisy. It makes no sense at all to see her float or use Toad, and yet...

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Skull Kid/Midna/Lyn pre-Krystal/Shadow/Bomberman

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x225
Tidus x200
Moogle x175
Nate Adams x170
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x160
[Rerate] Ezio x150
Shuichi Saihara x146

150 - 101

Alex Mason x135
[Rerate] Frisk x125
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
Billy Hatcher x110
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x105

100 - 51

Echo: Xion (Sora) x90
Sakura Shinguji x90
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x85
Concept: Deltarune content x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Klonoa x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x70
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x65
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x57
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x54

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x45
Gooigi x45
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x45
Dr. Goomba Tower x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Amiya (Arknights) x25

Under 25

John Marston x23
Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Boss: Rayquaza x19
Echo (Olimar) x16
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x15
Cynthia x15
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Ghirahim x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Ezio climbs past Shuichi Saihara but Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume passes them both. The Concept ends the day in fifth place, Ezio in sixth and Shuichi in seventh.

Amiya reaches 25 noms.

Today's newcomer are both Zelda characters, fitting yesterday's topic. We have Ghirahim, with 5 noms, and Kass, with just 1.

 

[SharkLord]

You forget about Daisy. It makes no sens at all to see her float or use Toad, and yet...

To be fair, she at least visually matches Daisy. If I remember correctly, Sakurai said she was added because he felt sorry for her not getting much Mario appearances...
Echoes take some liberties, that I'm aware of. I mostly can't see Shadow doing Sonic's showy, carefree movements. I may sound like a broken record, but I can't see Shadow doing the silly wind-up punch forward smash. Besides, Wolf and Isabelle, among others, got off as semiclones instead of as Echoes. If Isabelle can get off with a similar but not quite identical moveset to Villager, I don't see why Shadow couldn't either.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on any of these guys.

Nominations: Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x5 (since we're having a noms purge, I'm gonna try and save as many as I can. Don't worry, Billy Hatcher has a support thread already (albeit a dead one), so he's good for a bit).

 

[Calamitas]

Edgy the Hedgy

Chance: 10%
He's not impossible, but I realistically don't see him happening. Shadow has popularity in his own series and some demand for Smash behind him, but most of that has, as far as I can tell, evaporated after Ultimate's actual release. And so far, we've yet to see a third-party franchise double-dip in DLC.

Want: 30%
He'd be alright. These days I'm a casual Sonic fan at best, but I suppose I could enjoy his inclusion.

Lamp oil, rope. . . BOMBS!

Chance: 0%
Not seeing him happen. Konami already got Simon and Richter in base game, and Snake as a returning veteran. I think this is all that we are gonna see from Konami.

Want: 0%
Another one of those character where all I ever see from them is. . . just not very interesting. Sorry, but I'm not interested.

Rebooted out of her franchise

Chance: 0%
Star Fox had Wolf return this game, and the most recent game in the series, Zero, rebooted the series yet again and didn't include Krystal then. She may have had the support once upon a time, but that's long since gone for the most part.

Want: 20%
Don't really have any personal history with the Star Fox series, but I suppose I could live with her. Not really a character I actively hope for, though.

Not gonna do any predictions or nominations today.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Skull Kid/Midna/Lyn pre-Krystal/Shadow/Bomberman

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x225
Tidus x200
Moogle x175
Nate Adams x170
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x160
[Rerate] Ezio x150
Shuichi Saihara x146

150 - 101

Alex Mason x135
[Rerate] Frisk x125
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
Billy Hatcher x110
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x105

100 - 51

Echo: Xion (Sora) x90
Sakura Shinguji x90
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x85
Concept: Deltarune content x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Klonoa x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x70
The Terrarian x65
Concept: Rocket League rep x65
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x65
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x57
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x54

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x45
Gooigi x45
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x45
Dr. Goomba Tower x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Amiya (Arknights) x25

Under 25

John Marston x23
Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Lora and Jin x20
Boss: Rayquaza x19
Echo (Olimar) x16
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x15
Cynthia x15
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Tetra x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Ghirahim x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Kass x1

Ezio climbs past Shuichi Saihara but Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume passes them both. The Concept ends the day in fifth place, Ezio in sixth and Shuichi in seventh.

Amiya reaches 25 noms.

Today's newcomer are both Zelda characters, fitting yesterday's topic. We have Ghirahim, with 5 noms, and Kass, with just 1.

I wonder how many of these characters actually have support threads. I have no clue who the likes of Nate Adams and Alex Mason are so I think it's likely they atleast don't have one.

I don't really get that rule btw. Sounds like it's for preventing joke noms such as Dr Goomba tower from being but a vast majority of concepts being nommed are completely sincere so it just sounds really restrictive.

If something completely idiotic is being nommed then simply not counting them sounds way better than purging the actual normal concepts along with them.

 

[jamesster445]

Krystal
Chance: 20%
Want: 80%

Shadow
Chance: 25%
Want: 10%

Bomberman
Chance: 20%
Want: 70%

I dont think any of these Assists are getting promoted. Shadow as an echo would be the easiest to implement so he gets a slight boost but if they were going to put him in they would've put him in already.

I'm mostly indifferent to Bomberman. Wouldnt love or hate his inclusion. But hes my best friends most wanted so thereby I want him.

Krystal I actually do like and want however she is not my most wanted Star Fox character, not anymore at least. Still I would not be opposed to the staff fighter from Star Fox.

Then theres Shadow... I dont get it. I swear Sonic fans are incredibly contradictory to everything they do. This is no exception. I found it wierd most of the Sonic fandom being unhappy with Sonic's current status in Smash, both as a playable character and as someone to fight against, than they want another Sonic.
But that's besides the point. I do not like Sonic in Smash neither playing with or against, and I dont want another character like him. While theres new Sonic content that I wouldnt mind seeing, that can be represented by someone like Eggman. A character that probably deserves the Roster spot more imo and would have a better moveset.

Nominations: Jin Kazama x5

 

[fogbadge]

I have no clue who the likes of Nate Adams

youll find the link to the thread in my sig and see why ill be the only one being positive about him