Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Knightmare Before Christmas(a cookie to those who fully get the real joke)
Chance:
30%(mainly because of a lot of competition)

Hard to give a good one, as there's quite a few Namco-Bandai possibilities, many on the table. But I also don't see why only Lloyd is on the table now. That doesn't make sense to me. There's a lot more franchises with very notable gameplay features. Tekken being out makes some possible sense if the gameplay issues still existed(limbs were all 4 buttons, and Sakurai likes to try and incorporate unique gameplay based upon a character's franchise. He's noted before that the Tekken gameplay was hard to transfer over to Smash. Min Min has some similar as well, which suggests he didn't find Heihachi plausible for gameplay reasons, but was able to get something similar with Min Min). Nightmare on the other hand is a lot easier to think on, as his core abilities focus a lot on launching and different stances. There's no 3D mechanic, but that's not all he does. He can still easily whip characters around for combos. Soul Calibur is another major IP from Namco-Bandai, and one they could easily choose. Otherwise, I'd say Tales of, Dark Souls, and Digimon are some major front runners, with nothing really strong going against them. And small ones like Dig Dug, Klonoa, and that's just not everything of note either. Namco-Bandai does not lack options, imo.

Want: ...Honestly, I'm not sure I want Nightmare more than Agumon either, but I'd say 80%. He's the only one who comes close to Digimon that I'd really want in. After that, Tales of. Then the rest mean little, though I'd love Artorias from Dark Souls. It'd be a cool antagonist option with lots of unique abilities.

Abstain on Sol Badguy.

Porky: 9%(funny thing is, "missing spirit" assumes they didn't simply mistake the Absolutely Safety Capsule entirely as being full. Not all clearly find the right sprites, as Masked Man had used a fan sprite. That's most likely actually the Porky sprite as is an in-joke. Since it's not a fan sprite, it's not like people needed to point out it's "empty". Many might not even be aware they could've meant it for the Porky Spirit either).
Sylux: 11%

Noms: Fulgore x 5(honestly, I don't know if Spirit Upgrade is even on the list anymore since it literally just happened, making it kind of... pointless? Unless it can be remade into "other upgraded spirits", but that's not what I originally gave noms for).

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Nightmare -

Chances: 40%

I think a Soul Calibur rep specifically Nightmare has the 2nd best now that Heihachi/Tekken is out to be the potential Namco rep. But I think Lloyd is going to be the Namco rep because of his Mii costume still MIA, him being the only Smash 4 Mii costume character to receive no content at all yet in Ultimate, and Tales of 25th anniversary being celebrated this year. If it's not Lloyd, I believe a Soul Calibur rep is guaranteed to be the potential Namco rep.

Want: 100%

Personally I would prefer Yoshimitsu, but Nightmare would by my 2nd choice for a Soul Calibur rep in Smash. The Soul Calibur games were a major part of my childhood, so of course I wholeheartedly want a Soul Calibur rep in Smash.

Edit: Oh yeah... SoL Badguy.

Chances: 35% I guess?

I don't really know were to rate this guy.

Want: 20%

I never nothing about this character or his franchise. But I would look into though. I give him a low 20% because I know nothing.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Edit: Oh yeah... SoL Badguy.

Chances: 35% I guess?

I don't really know were to rate this guy.

Want: 20%

I never nothing about this character or his franchise. But I would look into though. I give him a low 20% because I know nothing.

If you know little to nothing about the series then maybe you should abstain, at least for now if you want to do research. Also you need two sentences for both chance and want in order for your scores to be counted.

 

[Perkilator]

Excuse me, may I please see the fixed schedule again?

 

[Sari]

Excuse me, may I please see the fixed schedule again?

Here it is:

https://smashboards.com/threads/rat...guy-guilty-gear.453357/page-658#post-23989277

TCT~Phantom Would you be able to edit this schedule on one of the first few posts of this thread for easy viewing?

 

[Sari]

My first semester of college

Chance: 10%
Heihachi is now out so that's one less competitor for Nightmare when it comes to Namco reps. If we are going to get another Namco character then I think Nightmare has a shot considering how big Soul Calibur is. However I still think the frontrunner for Namco reps is Lloyd considering how popular he is and having less hurdles than Heihachi did.

Want: Abstain
Never got into Soul Calibur so I won't comment.

-----

A badguy, except he's actually not

Chance: 15%
I'm not sure how the Kunio spirits would affect the chances of an ArcSys rep. On one hand it shows that they're involved in Smash. On the other hand, that could be the most we'll see out of them as well as possibly a Mii Costume like with Ubisoft. As for Sol Badguy himself, he's pretty popular and Guilty Gear just seems to be getting more popular as time goes on. He's definitely one of the frontrunners for another fighting game series to be represented especially with Heihachi now out. Of course, while not as likely, there's a chance Sol would have to compete with other ArcSys-owned characters like Ragna and the Lee brothers.

Want: 60%
I used Sol a lot in one of the older GG titles so I'd be alright with him getting in, especially with Heihachi out of the running now. I will admit that when it comes to other fighting game characters, there are still a bunch more from both Capcom and SNK that I'd want to see first (specifically Chun-li, Iori, and of course Kyo who is my all-time most wanted character).

-----

"GUYS THESE CHARACTERS AREN'T SPIRITS SO THEY'RE TOTALLY A LOCK" chance predictions:

Sylux: 4.00%
Porky: 6.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[Dukemon102]

Nightmare and Sol Badguy

Chances for Both: 15%
Maybe because I already consider the fighting game rep? But I think these two have the same chance of getting picked and if one makes it in that would be it for every other traditional fighting rep, if wasn't enough for Sakurai that is.

Want: I will abstain for both because I'm not a fan of both of these series or fighting games in general, I have played Soul Calibur II for the reasons you all know (*cough* *cough*), but that's it. It's not fair to give them low score or 0% for that.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

If you know little to nothing about the series then maybe you should abstain, at least for now if you want to do research. Also you need two sentences for both chance and want in order for your scores to be counted.

I guess your right. I just dropped by to explain my thoughts on Nightmare's chances and how much I wanted a Soul Calibur rep.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I've noticed the noms some of us gave to characters on the fixed schedule (Eggman and Captain Toad in my case) haven't been changed/added to other concepts like you said they would. What's up with that?

No, I'm certain I gave your nominations for those last 2 days to Deltarune content. I even checked and there they are.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

No, I'm certain I gave your nominations for those last 2 days to Deltarune content. I even checked and there they are.

Don't know which days you're exactly reffering to. I'm not sure if we're on the same page here. This is the post I was talking about to make things clear.

Challengers approaching! We have Klonoa, Riptor, The Bard, Mii Costume: Alex Kidd, and Concept: Deltarune content, each with 5 noms!

Now, a lot of you gave nominations to characters that ended up on the fixed schedule. I figure it's only fair that you get the chance to change them, so waddledeeonredyoshi DaUsername Sari RouffWestie @SKX31 please tell me who you'd like to give those noms to instead.

Unless by change you meant 5 extra noms to make up for the ones wasted on fixed schedule concepts I think something went wrong here, cause I was more thinking along the lines of "Concept A x100 has now been turned into Concept B x100". I sorta expected Deltarune concept to skyrocket to the top of the noms list when I said "Yeah I'd like to convert these noms please". To be fair, I tried timelining our post to find the first instances of me rating that concept but found nothing leaving me even more confused.

If you can't do anything about it I'll just shut up. Don't care enough to make this a bigger deal than it needs to be.

 

[Calamitas]

Another Swordsman? That definitely is a Nightmare!
(In case it needs to be said, that's a joke.)

Chance: 10%
Mmyeah, not really seeing it. Bandai Namco has been helping out with Smash for seven years now, meaning that they probably have the best relations to Nintendo when it comes to this. And yet, the only character they have is Pac-Man. To me, this just comes off as neither Nintendo nor them really not having much of any interest in seeing any more of Bandai Namco's characters represented.

Want: Abstain.
Usual thing: Never played a game in the series, so no want rating. I'll have to say though that based on all I've seen of this character, he. . . really looks kinda boring to me, sorry.

Everyone's wondering why he's called Badguy, but I'm just wondering what the gear is guilty of

Chance: Abstain
. . .Uh, come to think of it. . . I really don't have a good enough idea of the company or the character to really give an accurate chance rating. I got a gut feeling that his chances are really not good at all, but I don't want to base a rating around just that, so I got nothing.

Want: Abstain
Same as with my want abstain for Nightmare. Though in this case I don't think this character looks boring. . . on account on me having never even having seen him in action.

Nominating Concept: A person of colour x5

Predicting Sylux to get around 3.22%
Predicting Porky to get around 7.89%

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Nightmare

Chance: 5% - Ehh, not really seeing it. Sure, Soul Calibur has a rock-solid position in the fighting game community. But Nightmare has competition with other Bandai Namco characters, and in particular I don't see him getting in before a Tales Character. Plus, we already have 2 fighting game DLC characters - Terry Bogard and Min Min. I'm also worried that he might not really fit the Smash style.

Want: 60% - I've seen him in a few SCVI matches, and I'll say this for the guy - he's cool as all hell. That said, he's not my number-one pick for a fighting game character. That title goes to...


Sol Badguy

Chance: 20% - I don't know how close Nintendo and ArcSys are, but with GG Strive coming around the corner, he seems likely for the later half of FP2. Guilty Gear has also been a highly popular series within the fighting game community, arguably the most popular anime fighting game. That said, the Kunio spirits don't exactly have a clear meaning on whether or not ArcSys will be more involved in Smash Ultimate. I also don't think the other ArcSys reps are a problem.

Want: 90% - Yes. Yes. YES. Sol is my second most wanted character for Smash (although #1 leaves him behind by a wide margin). I feel like he'd translate so well into Smash with the way he fights, and plus Guilty Gear Xrd Rev2 was the game that got me into fighting games.

Nominating: OK, I want a mobile game rep to be here. I'm not gonna pick Saber because I've never really liked Fate, but there is another trending mobile game out there which I'm enjoying right now. So prepare for a totally out-of-left-field pick:

Amiya (Arknights) x5

 

[Royalty1702]

Is it weird that I don't know much about Sol Badguy? I only recognize him from that one Death Battle a few years ago.

 

[SharkLord]

Is it weird that I don't know much about Sol Badguy? I only recognize him from that one Death Battle a few years ago.

No too wierd. Guilty Gear only started gaining popularity recently with Strive's announcement, plus Dragon Ball FighterZ giving ArcSys more attention. It's getting there, but it's still pretty niche.

 

[Jomosensual]

Is it weird that I don't know much about Sol Badguy? I only recognize him from that one Death Battle a few years ago.

I wouldn't say that it's too weird. I never knew who he was until maybe a year ago or so and that was from being on this site. Wouldn't say he's a literal who or anything, but just a character and series that wasn't in my bubble of gaming.

 

[Ridrool64]

Individual malefactor (or would it be Sun malefactor?)

Chance (Badguy): 30%. I am torn on if the content from ArcSys a while back means good things or bad things for him. On one hand, they have finally joined Smash kinda sorta, on the other hand when was the last time a third party company got content in a game before getting a fully-fledged fighter? Considering that Ubisoft got nobody playable last time even when they had the trophies, I dunno what that says about him. But, he's the first candidate for Guilty Gear by far and at least only has one major competitor in Billy & Jimmy for ArcSys. The others probably won't get in before Sol. I also dunno if we'll get more fighting game characters after Min Min, but if so it'll likely be something totally aesthetically different. Like Guilty Gear, so I don't think that's an issue.

Want (Badguy): 55%. Never played a Guilty Gear game. This want score comes entirely from moveset concepts and IWBTG introducing me to the soundtrack of the game (well Isuka, but I've heard more and it's all bangers). Sol's cool and should def get in.

State in which your brain displays images of a nature that alarms you during your period of rest

Chance (NM): 20%. I really have a hard time seeing this guy get in over Heihachi, or Tekken in general, who beats him in just about every regard. Since Heihachi didn't make it, that doesn't reflect well on Nightmare to me. Since he's not the sole candidate for a Soul Calibur rep Nightmare isn't just fighting with Bamco but fighting within his own series (frontrunner, probably, but I don't think it's as guaranteed/free as, say, Lloyd or Yuri over other Tales characters, and especially within each other's games). Besides that, though, Nightmare strikes me as the kind of character who could be in contention as a solid candidate later down the line.

There's also the fact that I think they consider Pac-Man the definitive Bandai-Namco character and thus doubt anybody from them as I think they consider the whole company repped well enough with just the Pac. Not even just the continued lack of a newcomer, it's how the "Pac-Man" series is more of a Bandai-Namco general series. Emphasis on the Namco in Bandai-Namco.

Want (NM): 35%. Same with Sol Badguy in all accounts. However Soul Calibur music doesn't get me the way Guilty Gear's soundtrack does. Plus, the moveset concepts for Nightmare don't click with me the way they do with Sol, so.... I don't want him as much.

Red x 5. Sylux is heavily reliant on a new game, which may or may not feature him. 5.39%. Porky was pretty much entirely counting on the ARMS not being a Spirit, and now that we have a Spirit promotion his future looks extremely bleak. 3.59%.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Don't know which days you're exactly reffering to. I'm not sure if we're on the same page here. This is the post I was talking about to make things clear.

Unless by change you meant 5 extra noms to make up for the ones wasted on fixed schedule concepts I think something went wrong here, cause I was more thinking along the lines of "Concept A x100 has now been turned into Concept B x100". I sorta expected Deltarune concept to skyrocket to the top of the noms list when I said "Yeah I'd like to convert these noms please". To be fair, I tried timelining our post to find the first instances of me rating that concept but found nothing leaving me even more confused.

If you can't do anything about it I'll just shut up. Don't care enough to make this a bigger deal than it needs to be.

Oh, yeah, sorry about the confusion but I meant just the last day before we announced the fixed schedule. It wouldn't be practical to give all the noms a character had back to the people who gave them, that would take tracking tons of posts over months, plus we also take the number of noms a character has into account when making the fixed schedule.

Again, I apologize for the misunderstanding, I should have explained better.

 

[RouffWestie]

Nightmare
Chance: 25%
Soul Calibur is a franchise I could see Nintendo going for if they really wanted to. It doesn't have anything really damning against it's chances, but I also don't really feel there's anything making it an obvious frontrunner. I don't know if Tekken seemingly being out of the running implies that Nintendo simply didn't pick a Namco-Bandai fighting-game for DLC, but it's a reasonable possibility I wouldn't be surprised by.
Want: 0%
I don't care about this franchise nor the character unfortunately. He's really not too interesting in my opinion. Filia is genuinely the only traditional fighting game character I'm rooting for with Smash.

Sol Badguy
Chance: 25%
The River City Smash Event is the first Arc System Works-owned content to appear in Smash. It's possible Nintendo could have seen Guilty Gear as an ideal franchise to represent with DLC since it is a cult classic series. I also feel like, despite working with Arc System Works already, Nintendo could have forgone any of their other IPs entirely and only intended to get whatever they could throw in for River City Ransom (since it is a notable NES title.)
Want: 0%
I also don't care about this franchise nor the character unfortunately. I wouldn't really care if he was in or not. Filia is the only fighting game rep I'd like because I really love the idea behind her design and how it's implemented into her moveset, as well as the fact that I'm a sucker for 2D animation.

Nominations: Red (Angry Birds) x5

 

[NintenRob]

No too wierd. Guilty Gear only started gaining popularity recently with Strive's announcement, plus Dragon Ball FighterZ giving ArcSys more attention. It's getting there, but it's still pretty niche.

I thought Dragon Ball was Namco? Or is it Co developed?

 

[AceAttorney9000]

I thought Dragon Ball was Namco? Or is it Co developed?

Dragon Ball FighterZ was only published by Bandai Namco (who hold the publishing rights for Dragon Ball games). Arc System Works were the developers.

 

[DaUsername]

Gonna drop a big ol' abstain on both characters today.
Predicting that both non spirits will get 5%
Noms: The Ba-

After we got a literal Goomba stack in Dr. Mario World, the concept doesn't sound that insane either.

Actually, you just gave me the perfect idea.
Nominating Dr. Goomba Tower x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Gonna drop a big ol' abstain on both characters today.
Predicting that both non spirits will get 5%
Noms: The Ba-

Actually, you just gave me the perfect idea.
Nominating Dr. Goomba Tower x5

Well, this just got awkward. Between this and the Arknights noms, I'm starting to think we might have some pro-mobile users after all.

 

[GoodGrief741]

DaUsername I gotta ask, is that a joke nomination? Or do you legit want to see Dr. Goomba Tower rated?

 

[Sid-cada]

Nightmare

Chance - 5% - I have trouble seeing why they would go for Soul Caliber over Tekken. While Soul Caliber is notable among Fighting Games in 3D, Tekken is THE 3D fighting game which no other game can compare. While there is some freedom now that Tekken is likely not happening, I don't think it has quite enough to be Smash material.

Want - 50% - Eh, I don't care about more traditional fighting game characters in Smash. At least he doesn't have complex motions, so at least I should theoretically play him.


Sol Badguy

Chance - 10% - I have no idea how influential he actually is. He's popular among the Anime Fan fighters, but I have no idea how big that is among the general FGC. His company already has some involvement thanks to the spirits, which can be either a good sign or a bad sign, though I'm leaning towards bad. That said, he might get picked for the FGC crowed, though I think Sakurai may have dipped out on more recent ones.

Want - 35% - Speaking as a person who cannot consistently perform a QCF, I would rather not have any such characters in. I'm not going to buy a character just to have a stage and music either. I skipped on Ryu, I skipped on Terry, and if it comes to it I'll skip on him.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[Ninjaed]

Abstain, not to mention those ratings were made not long ago and not much has changed for them.

Nominations: concept: more ATs as one new item x5

 

[Cadillac]

Abstain on Sol.

Nightmare

Chance: 8%
Not really sure. With Tekken out of the way it's less competition, but we still have the monstrous Tales of series. Lloyd(or Yuri) is a more popular pick than Nightmare I think. Nightmare isn't impossible, but I don't think he's that likely. Maybe if Namco wants to promote Soul Calibur he might be able to get in.

Abstain on wants.

Noms: Gil x5. We rated Lloyd, we rated Heihachi, why don't we rate this neat guy?

 

[DaUsername]

Well, this just got awkward. Between this and the Arknights noms, I'm starting to think we might have some pro-mobile users after all.

I'm in no way, shape, or form "pro-mobile". Don't insult me like that.

DaUsername I gotta ask, is that a joke nomination? Or do you legit want to see Dr. Goomba Tower rated?

Am I allowed to say yes to both of those?

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm in no way, shape, or form "pro-mobile". Don't insult me like that.

Am I allowed to say yes to both of those?

If it's good enough for Unsafe Wiimote Guy, it's good enough for Goomba Tower, M.D. I guess.

 

[fogbadge]

If it's good enough for Unsafe Wiimote Guy, it's good enough for Goomba Tower, M.D. I guess.

thatll be one interesting rate day

 

[Icedragonadam]

Nightmare

Chance: 10%

It's a popular franchise from Namco but the series nearly died(twice I think as IV almost killed it before V almost did it again). But to me, if there's going to be a 2nd Namco franchise it's probably going to be Tales Of.

Want: 60%

He has a pretty great design, and he's a good consolation prize for a Namco rep for me.

Sol Badguy

Chance: 50%

He's one of main predictions for Volume 2. Arc Sys is a notable Japanese game company who doesn't have a character in smash yet. They also lended Kunio spirits to Smash beforehand meaning Nintendo and Arc Sys are willing to work with each other. Guilty Gear is also the most likely Fighting Game to get a rep at this point, considering Heihachi's return as a mii costume as well as MK's overall unpopularity in Japan and the games not being released there.

Want: 100%

Cool design, cool series. Don't need to add anything more.

Sylux Prediction: 5.66%
Porky Prediction: 9.66%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Guessing this is our first deconfirmation by Spirit event in quite some time.
Deceased: Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance, 51.00% Want

 

[GoodGrief741]

So, Octopath Traveler is getting the Spirit Event treatment, with all 8 characters. Think it's safe to say RIP its chances.

Concept: Octopath Traveler rep
3.47% Chance - 51.00% Want

You guys didn't seem to think it was likely to begin with, so this should be no surprise. As a big fan of the game, I actually wanted Spirits for it, so this is a pretty great outcome.

First Mana, now this, the competition within Square Enix is slowly thinning.

Edit: whoops, got beaten to the news!

 

[fogbadge]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Guessing this is our first deconfirmation by Spirit event in quite some time.
Deceased: Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance, 51.00% Want

yet more proof that SE isnt stingy

 

[Calamitas]

Considering that I didn't really expect any character from the game to begin with (and that my favourite tracks in it are the more calm overworld songs) I'm also perfectly fine with Octopath Spirits. I just wish that each character had their own Spirit, but they're obviously not gonna change the event format for that.

Either way, can we move on to the next day now? It has been nearly 18 hours since the last rating, after all.

 

[SharkLord]

yet more proof that SE isnt stingy

I don't think it's Squeenix's fault. Final Fantasy rights are a piping hot mess, and Dragon Quest is just saddled with a composer who's... Not a pleasant guy, or so I've heard. Other than the music, DQ's DLC was pretty complete.

 

[PeridotGX]

Incineroar's Inclusion

Chance - 0%. I think of all the characters not explicitly disconfirmed in the direct, a Soul Caliber rep was definitely the most hurt. Tekken and Soul Caliber are series with a strong connection, if there was going to be a character from one of the series, side content from the other would follow. Heihachi coming with a completely different character... not exactly promising.

Is he a bad guy?

Chance - 10%. I guess it could happen. Guilty Gear is appearantly a big fighting game, and it's company is already represented via the Kunio spirit. I would say his biggest obstacle is a lack of popularity, but that didn't stop Terry.

Abstain on want for both. I will add that I'm not a fan of traditional fighting games, and I don't like how Sakurai feels the need to import every single trait of a fighting game character when adding one to Smash.

Noms: Maxwell x5

 

[Speed Weed]

again, i hope i'm not late on this one

Air-Dashing Freddie Mercury

Chance: abstain
i'm not abstaining out of lack of guilty gear knowledge or anything, i'm doing so because sol is actually super hard to tell in terms of chances. anything related to him can work either for or against him. his chances are all over the place, he's simultaneously likely and unlikely. it's weird as ****

Want: 100%
with all that said, yes sakurai pls gib sol

The first week or so after Byleth's reveal

Chance: 25%
i wouldn't count on nightmare, to be completely honest. i guess he has a reasonable shot, but i personally feel the heihachi mii is pointing to either tales or nothing for bamco. i just don't see him, unfortunately.

Want: 60%
i always felt he was one of the more interesting bamco candidates

 

[fogbadge]

I don't think it's Squeenix's fault. Final Fantasy rights are a piping hot mess, and Dragon Quest is just saddled with a composer who's... Not a pleasant guy, or so I've heard. Other than the music, DQ's DLC was pretty complete.

its not, the fans just decided they were

 

[SharkLord]

Do you think we've done enough to move on to the next day? Discussion seems to be slowing down, and that's usually an indicator for us to move on.
Also, did we ever get the comparisons for BWD and Dixie's overall wants and chances, or should we do a couple more characters before we do that?

 

[Jomosensual]

Do you think we've done enough to move on to the next day? Discussion seems to be slowing down, and that's usually an indicator for us to move on.
Also, did we ever get the comparisons for BWD and Dixie's overall wants and chances, or should we do a couple more characters before we do that?

I'd like to move on too. IDK why we always slow down so much whenever we hit the fixed schedules.