Thank you to whoever was nominating this, as you made me rethink a few things about Smash speculation (which also led to me creating a new support thread)!
You're welcome, I wanted to spark discussion with this and cast a new light on the usual speculation.
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Concept: fighter from an already repped 3rd party franchise
Chance: 30%
Many figured we wouldn't be getting Fire Emblem or Pokémon in FP1 because many FE/Pokémon characters already and all that. Now people are saying we wouldn't be getting a new Sonic rep (for example) because that'd be representing the same game world. From where I'm standing, this looks like a guideline, not a rule. It's impossible to fully represent a franchise with one rep, and franchises tend to span several games. Why is that important? Because FE3H was deemed to be a new game world. That means we could get a new fighter while adhering to the guideline (which may be ignored anyway if they so wish).
The possibility therefore distinctly exists. Now that this is proven, let's see the candidates (bolding the ones with an actual chance):
- Banjo & Kazooie: just got a rep as DLC, not getting another yet.
- Bayonetta: Rodin is an AT, Jeanne would likely be an echo. That aside, the series isn't big enough compared to the other 3rd party giants in smash for it to be the first one to get a 2nd playable fighter.
- Castlevania: Alucard had been considered but became an AT, Dracula became a boss. While FP2 has been said not to be originally planned, it's doubtful they'd see an upgrade in ultimate FP2... especially considering Capcom has so many options to choose from still.
- Dragon Quest: massive in Japan, but like B&K we just got a rep as DLC. Otherwise, I'd definitely consider it for one of those few lucky series to get a 2nd fighter.
- Fatal Fury: same as B&K or DQ.
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Final Fantasy: huge series, impactful in gaming history, popular and has demand for many candidates, including (but not restricted to): Sephiroth, Terra, Lightning, Noctis, Tidus, Tifa, Aerith, Black Mage, Chocobo... In fact, a new FF stage would be a great opportunity to feature marlboro, coeurls and other iconic FF critters.
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Megaman: Zero is an AT so I'd say he's seemingly out of the equation... X on the other hand would definitely be an option, and likely option #1 even if Zero was available. Megaman has made non negligible ripples in gaming history and could indeed warrant a new fighter. X is almost cheating as it could be considered a different series but I digress. Regardless, he'd rep aspects that our current man of rock doesn't... or rather can't, thus fulfilling both "new game world" and "new aspects".
- Metal Gear Solid: Raiden would probably be MGS's best bet, but I don't see it yet when titans like Eggman exist and aren't in yet.
- Pac Man: who would want Ms. Pac Man?
- Persona/SMT: same as B&K or DQ.
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Sonic:
the third party franchise here. Sonic is easily top 5 most iconic video game mascots (with Mario, Pikachu... not sure Lara Croft counts). Between Tails, Knuckles, Shadow or Dr Eggman, there's no shortage of popular requests. But there's more than popularity at play in a new rep, all the more so for 3rd parties. Tails, Knuckles and Shadow are in a bad spot for more than one reason... Eggman on the other hand isn't an AT nor a mii costume. He's also the one constant other than Sonic is pretty much anything Sonic-related
and would play nothing like the blue hedgehog. Sega is also one of only 4 companies that waged the console war, giving the Sonic series an edge over the others. Finally, you have classic Sonic and modern Sonic. We got modern Sonic in Smash. Eggman would be the perfect opportunity for some classic Sonic callbacks (to you all who argue "new game worlds only" as a roadblock).
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Street Fighter: no doubt the "2nd" rep we'd get from Street Fighter would be Chun-Li. Possible? Definitely, Street Fighter "invented" (through a glitch) the combo system. SF2 is also the game that gave us the HP bars at the top. Many things in fighting games are due to SF, so there shouldn't be any arguing against it getting another rep. Especially if it's the iconic and popular (and thicc) Chun-Li.
So we're left with: Final Fantasy, Megaman, Sonic and Street Fighter. Those 4 have very strong contenders, putting many speculation regulars to shame. If Nintendo were to decide to double dip for any of those series, they'd stand little to lose honestly. That said, there are only 5 slots left and I doubt ARMS will be the only 1st party rep. Then there are unrepped 3rd party franchises, many of which are iconic enough themselves. At best, I'd see 1 franchise at most getting a 2nd fighter. My money would be on Sonic for several reasons already stated and more, but this isn't a Sonic day so I'll cut it short here.
One last point though, if Nintendo were to give us such a fighter, wouldn't you agree that'd generate massive hype? If Nintendo wants to make the game live a bit longer with an FP3, that'd definitely be the way. The floodgates would be open and the next smash instalment would be hype like crazy because of all the possibilities people are currently dismissing as impossible or improbable. It's difficult to see why they'd pass on such an "easy" way to create hype (which usually requires quite some investment) while at the same time releasing a popular, requested, iconic, fun and unique character. If there are drawbacks, I don't see them.
Want: 100%
It's honestly almost impossible to go wrong with all those great choices. Chun-Li, Alucard, X, Eggman, Sephiroth... you could easily have an entire FP dedicated to 3rd party franchises getting a 2nd fighter. And many people's most wanted actually falls into that category. Some of my most wanted are in fact no exception, and I've seen it be true for many people here as well. Also like I said earlier, that'd rekindle hope for many concerning their "pipe dreams". Just like how ARMS rekindled hope for those who want spirit or AT upgrades.
Predictions: Rex - 7%
Nominations: Concept: more ATs as one new item x5
