ok good to know for future reference
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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes
- Thread starter TCT~Phantom
- Start date
Ridrool64
Smash Lord
I really think this was nominated for the sake of getting the lowest score possible, but I doubt it'll beat Bubsy's chance or Baldi's want (if only due to more outliers or people voting to rig the score).
Subspace Assists alone is enough of a joke.
Chance: 0%. If they were gonna do post-launch Assists, which in a post-COVID world is extremely unlikely, these guys ain’t it. No, seriously, they have actually nothing going for them. Why would they be chosen?
Want: On one hand, post launch assists means more content to mess around with. On the other, it means that more characters are gonna get snowglobed. And these guys in particular don’t do it for me. 10%.
Red x 5. Frank West is in the notoriously competitive next Capcom rep group, and his own advantages start to slip, but that’s not to say he hasn’t covered this, you know. 17.13%.
Subspace Assists alone is enough of a joke.
Chance: 0%. If they were gonna do post-launch Assists, which in a post-COVID world is extremely unlikely, these guys ain’t it. No, seriously, they have actually nothing going for them. Why would they be chosen?
Want: On one hand, post launch assists means more content to mess around with. On the other, it means that more characters are gonna get snowglobed. And these guys in particular don’t do it for me. 10%.
Red x 5. Frank West is in the notoriously competitive next Capcom rep group, and his own advantages start to slip, but that’s not to say he hasn’t covered this, you know. 17.13%.
DaUsername
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2013
- Messages
- 910
- Location
- In that corner over there
- NNID
- DaUsername
- Switch FC
- SW-1418-0536-1998
More ATs
Chance: 0%
I feel like if they wanted to add ATs in updates, they would have done it by now. Even then, it seems more likely that we'd get ATs from the new third parties and not some random subspace enemies, especially all 3 of these enemies specifically.
Want: N/A
Frank prediction: 10%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x5
Chance: 0%
I feel like if they wanted to add ATs in updates, they would have done it by now. Even then, it seems more likely that we'd get ATs from the new third parties and not some random subspace enemies, especially all 3 of these enemies specifically.
Want: N/A
Frank prediction: 10%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x5
Day over.
Rate Frank West from the Dead Rising series.
Predict Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise.
Day will probably end on Thursday, though if we get a Direct announcement tomorrow then it will end sooner so we can do Direct predictions.
Also keep in mind that today is the last day to affect the top 7 through your noms.
Megadoomer
-----
Some songs to get into the orange juice drinking mood:
Rate Frank West from the Dead Rising series.
Predict Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise.
Day will probably end on Thursday, though if we get a Direct announcement tomorrow then it will end sooner so we can do Direct predictions.
Also keep in mind that today is the last day to affect the top 7 through your noms.
Megadoomer
-----
Some songs to get into the orange juice drinking mood:
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2018
- Messages
- 2,014
Abstaining because I dont know the character or series well
Predictions
3rd party rep - 72%
Noms:
Stretchers x5
Predictions
3rd party rep - 72%
Noms:
Stretchers x5
Last edited:
He's covered wars, you know.
Chance: 10%
Dead Rising is certainly a popular franchise, and Frank clearly has fighting experience from the Marvel vs. Capcom series. However, characters like Phoenix Wright and Amaterasu, along with countless others, MIGHT stand in his way.
Want: 30%
I may want Jill Valentine more, but I wouldn't mind Frank.
Unless it was DR4 Frank. Then we have a problem.
Fighter from a repped 3rd party franchise: 75%
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×2
Sakura Shinguji ×3
Chance: 10%
Dead Rising is certainly a popular franchise, and Frank clearly has fighting experience from the Marvel vs. Capcom series. However, characters like Phoenix Wright and Amaterasu, along with countless others, MIGHT stand in his way.
Want: 30%
I may want Jill Valentine more, but I wouldn't mind Frank.
Unless it was DR4 Frank. Then we have a problem.
Fighter from a repped 3rd party franchise: 75%
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×2
Sakura Shinguji ×3
Ninjaed
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2018
- Messages
- 468
Frank West
Chance: 1%
Never say never, but I don't see why Nintendo and Capcom would think Frank West is the way to go. Capcom has other great candidates such as Dante, Phoenix Wright or Amaterasu. Why would they ignore the quirky, iconic and unique ones to go for the boring human with a bloody bat (and a camera)?
Want: 0%
Dead Rising is decently fun to watch and play and all, but if that means we're not getting the "superior" ones (in my opinion), then no. I'll take those 3 I mentioned or even Monster Hunter any day. I mean, it's not like Kiryu would encompass almost everything Frank West has to offer and give us even more.
Predictions: concept: fighter from repped 3rd party franchise - 42%
Nominations: Concept: more ATs as one new item x5
For example, Dr Eggman (we already have Sonic from Sonic). Or Sephiroth (we already have Cloud from Final Fantasy). But while Final Fantasy and NieR are both by Square Enix, 2B wouldn't count as her franchise isn't repped yet.
Chance: 1%
Never say never, but I don't see why Nintendo and Capcom would think Frank West is the way to go. Capcom has other great candidates such as Dante, Phoenix Wright or Amaterasu. Why would they ignore the quirky, iconic and unique ones to go for the boring human with a bloody bat (and a camera)?
Want: 0%
Dead Rising is decently fun to watch and play and all, but if that means we're not getting the "superior" ones (in my opinion), then no. I'll take those 3 I mentioned or even Monster Hunter any day. I mean, it's not like Kiryu would encompass almost everything Frank West has to offer and give us even more.
Predictions: concept: fighter from repped 3rd party franchise - 42%
Nominations: Concept: more ATs as one new item x5
I just want to point out this isn't about getting a new 3rd party rep, or a rep from a 3rd party that already has a rep. It's about getting a 3rd party rep from an already repped franchise.
For example, Dr Eggman (we already have Sonic from Sonic). Or Sephiroth (we already have Cloud from Final Fantasy). But while Final Fantasy and NieR are both by Square Enix, 2B wouldn't count as her franchise isn't repped yet.
waddledeeonredyoshi
Smash Lord
weeeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEEELLLL
Chance: 1%
Dead Rising is one of the most iconic 360 titles but I'd say the series as a whole has kinda fallen of the radar, especially after DR4 underpeformed and was received with mixed feelings. It's connection with Nintendo also doesn't go further than that weird demake of the original game for the Wii. Frank admittedly has some wicked moveset potential but I don't think it's enough to compete with the slew of other Capcom characters more demanded than him like Dante, Phoenix, Monster Hunter or Amaterasu.
Want: 15%
I haven't played the Dead Rising games but the series (atleast the first two) does look like alot of fun and I'll make sure to try to get my hands on the original when that's possible. While moveset potential isn't really my most important factor regarding newcomers I'm well aware of all the tons of wacky stuff Frank has used throughout the series so I know he'd be a ton of fun. Still, part of me would think Resident Evil got the short end of the stick if this happened. Also, I really hope they wouldn't **** up by going with his selfie taking boomer incarnation from 4.
3rd party for repped franchise: 18.21% (do we mean franchises repped with characters or do stuff like Monster Hunter and Undertale also count here?)
Dr Eggman x5
Chance: 1%
Dead Rising is one of the most iconic 360 titles but I'd say the series as a whole has kinda fallen of the radar, especially after DR4 underpeformed and was received with mixed feelings. It's connection with Nintendo also doesn't go further than that weird demake of the original game for the Wii. Frank admittedly has some wicked moveset potential but I don't think it's enough to compete with the slew of other Capcom characters more demanded than him like Dante, Phoenix, Monster Hunter or Amaterasu.
Want: 15%
I haven't played the Dead Rising games but the series (atleast the first two) does look like alot of fun and I'll make sure to try to get my hands on the original when that's possible. While moveset potential isn't really my most important factor regarding newcomers I'm well aware of all the tons of wacky stuff Frank has used throughout the series so I know he'd be a ton of fun. Still, part of me would think Resident Evil got the short end of the stick if this happened. Also, I really hope they wouldn't **** up by going with his selfie taking boomer incarnation from 4.
3rd party for repped franchise: 18.21% (do we mean franchises repped with characters or do stuff like Monster Hunter and Undertale also count here?)
Dr Eggman x5
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2018
- Messages
- 2,014
Oh i gotcha. Gonna edit my post
DrifloonEmpire
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2019
- Messages
- 2,230
Frank West
Chance: 1% - There's always a possibility, but Frank West has his fair share of major problems. The first is a general lack of Nintendo representation outside of a spinoff on the Wii. Yes, Joker, but at least SMT was prominent on Nintendo consoles even if Persona wasn't. Dead Rising, meanwhile, is primarily Xbox and Playstation. Furthermore, Capcom has some incredibly iconic and unique characters with way more fan demand, so I don't see why they'd pass them up for a more generic character like Frank West. He doesn't bring much to the table in the Smash context.
Want: 0% - Nonexperience with his games and I'd rather not see him get in over Capcom's more quirky and cool library of characters. They all have elements that make them super unique, while Frank, for the most part, is a generic human with a bat.
Nominations:
Austin (Homescapes/Gardenscapes) x5
Predictions:
Rep from a represented 3rd party - 30.53%
Chance: 1% - There's always a possibility, but Frank West has his fair share of major problems. The first is a general lack of Nintendo representation outside of a spinoff on the Wii. Yes, Joker, but at least SMT was prominent on Nintendo consoles even if Persona wasn't. Dead Rising, meanwhile, is primarily Xbox and Playstation. Furthermore, Capcom has some incredibly iconic and unique characters with way more fan demand, so I don't see why they'd pass them up for a more generic character like Frank West. He doesn't bring much to the table in the Smash context.
Want: 0% - Nonexperience with his games and I'd rather not see him get in over Capcom's more quirky and cool library of characters. They all have elements that make them super unique, while Frank, for the most part, is a generic human with a bat.
Nominations:
Austin (Homescapes/Gardenscapes) x5
Predictions:
Rep from a represented 3rd party - 30.53%
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warpenguin55
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 490
Frank West
Abstain. IDK enough about this character
Noms: Alex Mason x5
Abstain. IDK enough about this character
Noms: Alex Mason x5
Good question. This really needs to be cleared up before we rate it
Ridrool64
Smash Lord
Zombie apocalypse? Better get my camera and take snapshots.
Chance: 15%. In the over-competitive Capcom representative scene, Frank West is pretty lacking. He's got trouble when it comes to an up special, but other than that the moveset isn't the problem. It's just how swallowed Dead Rising is in both relevance and fan demand by other Capcom characters, in particular Dante and maybe Phoenix Wright pose an almost atomic challenge to many up and comers. Doesn't help that, like Ryo Hazuki, his most recent title didn't quite live up to expectations, which could spell doom for him in the Smash arms race. That being said, I think he's being extremely underrated, and nowhere near outside the realm of possibility. Definitely a Capcom darkhorse, but the least likely of them.
Though, I don't hold his lack of a Nintendo connection against him. Partly because he has one, but mostly because I can't think of a single third party character rejected on the grounds of "not being Nintendo enough". You'd think Joker would be the guy to do it, or Cloud, technically even Pac-Man, arguably even Snake, but people still think this is an argument with substance? I really don't think they'd care about this.
Want: 40%. I thought a lot more people would be receptive to this; what's not to like? A guy who crafts things as he goes along would be kinda interesting, especially in the context of Smash. And while there's definitely somebody better for that, I'm not about to knock West for it (since, unlike most here, I don't care about most Capcom reps) But I'm not sure on the potential of music from this series, which keeps it from being too high. I've only heard of Dead Rising through periphery talks like YouTube rather than hands-on experience, but I'd still be quite a bit happy to see it get Smash love.
Red x 5. This next rating is a pretty interesting one: I imagine there's gonna be a lot of people who think it's time, and a lot who think it's not or it won't ever be. 28.49%.
Chance: 15%. In the over-competitive Capcom representative scene, Frank West is pretty lacking. He's got trouble when it comes to an up special, but other than that the moveset isn't the problem. It's just how swallowed Dead Rising is in both relevance and fan demand by other Capcom characters, in particular Dante and maybe Phoenix Wright pose an almost atomic challenge to many up and comers. Doesn't help that, like Ryo Hazuki, his most recent title didn't quite live up to expectations, which could spell doom for him in the Smash arms race. That being said, I think he's being extremely underrated, and nowhere near outside the realm of possibility. Definitely a Capcom darkhorse, but the least likely of them.
Though, I don't hold his lack of a Nintendo connection against him. Partly because he has one, but mostly because I can't think of a single third party character rejected on the grounds of "not being Nintendo enough". You'd think Joker would be the guy to do it, or Cloud, technically even Pac-Man, arguably even Snake, but people still think this is an argument with substance? I really don't think they'd care about this.
Want: 40%. I thought a lot more people would be receptive to this; what's not to like? A guy who crafts things as he goes along would be kinda interesting, especially in the context of Smash. And while there's definitely somebody better for that, I'm not about to knock West for it (since, unlike most here, I don't care about most Capcom reps) But I'm not sure on the potential of music from this series, which keeps it from being too high. I've only heard of Dead Rising through periphery talks like YouTube rather than hands-on experience, but I'd still be quite a bit happy to see it get Smash love.
Red x 5. This next rating is a pretty interesting one: I imagine there's gonna be a lot of people who think it's time, and a lot who think it's not or it won't ever be. 28.49%.
Obligatory Crowbcat video post to set the mood
Chance: 0.1%
The studio behind the Dead Rising series got closed down in 2018 and the series currently has no future at all. The series is also mainly Western based with Dead Rising 3 and 4 releasing primarily on Xbox which isn't popular in Japan. Dead Rising doesn't really have that much connection to Nintendo either apart from an awful Wii port of the first game. Even if Frank was in his prime, there's just no way he'd get in over more popular Capcom names like Phoenix Wright and Dante who have much bigger fan demand.
Want: 90%
It's funny how Capcom has so many big names like Dante and Phoenix Wright but none of them have ever really clicked with me. Meanwhile I loved the first Dead Rising, poured a ton of hours into DR2: OTR, and mained Frank in UMvC3 so I would absolutely love to see him in Smash. He'd be a hilarious and original character plus we'd get some awesome tracks from Celldweller if DR2 music is on the table. My only hope is that they don't go with his god awful DR4 incarnation (who I refer to as Fred East), but if even MvC Infinite can use classic Frank then I'm hopeful Smash would as well.
Off topic but I checked the Dead Rising wiki to learn more about Frank in DR4... and holy crap. After reading the plot summary of the Frank Rising DLC, I seriously hope it gets retconned in a future game.
Additional repped third party characters: 15.00%
Nominations:
Rex [Rerate] x5
Chance: 0.1%
The studio behind the Dead Rising series got closed down in 2018 and the series currently has no future at all. The series is also mainly Western based with Dead Rising 3 and 4 releasing primarily on Xbox which isn't popular in Japan. Dead Rising doesn't really have that much connection to Nintendo either apart from an awful Wii port of the first game. Even if Frank was in his prime, there's just no way he'd get in over more popular Capcom names like Phoenix Wright and Dante who have much bigger fan demand.
Want: 90%
It's funny how Capcom has so many big names like Dante and Phoenix Wright but none of them have ever really clicked with me. Meanwhile I loved the first Dead Rising, poured a ton of hours into DR2: OTR, and mained Frank in UMvC3 so I would absolutely love to see him in Smash. He'd be a hilarious and original character plus we'd get some awesome tracks from Celldweller if DR2 music is on the table. My only hope is that they don't go with his god awful DR4 incarnation (who I refer to as Fred East), but if even MvC Infinite can use classic Frank then I'm hopeful Smash would as well.
Off topic but I checked the Dead Rising wiki to learn more about Frank in DR4... and holy crap. After reading the plot summary of the Frank Rising DLC, I seriously hope it gets retconned in a future game.
Additional repped third party characters: 15.00%
Nominations:
Rex [Rerate] x5
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GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
I've covered wars, you know
Chance: 13%
Frank has a lot more than you guys are giving him credit for. Dead Rising isn't the biggest Capcom franchise, but it still has 13 million copies sold under its cap (for reference, that's more than Persona, and commonly speculated franchises like Yakuza and Bomberman). It's on Nintendo, it's very distinctly Japanese, it provides Frank an abundance of moveset possibilities thanks to all the weaponry that can be used. I've seen some say Frank is generic? What other character can wield chainsaws, shopping carts, power armors and soccer balls?
What brings Frank's chances down is the competition. Ace Attorney, Devil May Cry, Monster Hunter. Those are all iconic, influential, and more demanded by fans, and to Mr. West's misfortune they're owned by Capcom too. I'd even say characters like Amaterasu and Viewtiful Joe are on the same level of chance as Frank despite much lesser success simply because of their larger demand. But, ironically, what hurts Dead Rising's chances the most is the one series that's out of contention: Resident Evil. I severely doubt they'll put a character from Dead Rising before one from Resident Evil.
Want: 85%
But Dead Rising is still a classic franchise on its own merits. Amazing gameplay, great storylines, and a timer mechanic that should be in more games (I could very well be praising Pikmin right now, heh). Frank is a funny character and I've no doubt that his personality would translate well into Smash. It's sad that Capcom has such a deep repertoire of great characters that we'll never get all of them, but I guess that's what Marvel vs. Capcom's for.
Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Prediction: around 16%
Chance: 13%
Frank has a lot more than you guys are giving him credit for. Dead Rising isn't the biggest Capcom franchise, but it still has 13 million copies sold under its cap (for reference, that's more than Persona, and commonly speculated franchises like Yakuza and Bomberman). It's on Nintendo, it's very distinctly Japanese, it provides Frank an abundance of moveset possibilities thanks to all the weaponry that can be used. I've seen some say Frank is generic? What other character can wield chainsaws, shopping carts, power armors and soccer balls?
What brings Frank's chances down is the competition. Ace Attorney, Devil May Cry, Monster Hunter. Those are all iconic, influential, and more demanded by fans, and to Mr. West's misfortune they're owned by Capcom too. I'd even say characters like Amaterasu and Viewtiful Joe are on the same level of chance as Frank despite much lesser success simply because of their larger demand. But, ironically, what hurts Dead Rising's chances the most is the one series that's out of contention: Resident Evil. I severely doubt they'll put a character from Dead Rising before one from Resident Evil.
Want: 85%
But Dead Rising is still a classic franchise on its own merits. Amazing gameplay, great storylines, and a timer mechanic that should be in more games (I could very well be praising Pikmin right now, heh). Frank is a funny character and I've no doubt that his personality would translate well into Smash. It's sad that Capcom has such a deep repertoire of great characters that we'll never get all of them, but I guess that's what Marvel vs. Capcom's for.
Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Prediction: around 16%
chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
- Messages
- 8,385
Abstain. All I know about Dead Rising is from this video explaining DR4's doomed development (it was meant to be a "Last of Us killer") and what happened to DR5.
https://youtu.be/6glExmQadfY (posting a link because I believe there may be a little bit of swearing; if there isn't, let me know and I'll fix it)
Needless to say, I don't think this series is coming back anytime soon.
Nominations: [Rerate] Rex x5
https://youtu.be/6glExmQadfY (posting a link because I believe there may be a little bit of swearing; if there isn't, let me know and I'll fix it)
Needless to say, I don't think this series is coming back anytime soon.
Nominations: [Rerate] Rex x5
amageish
Smash Master
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2018
- Messages
- 3,558
Frank West
Chance: 5%. I could see it happening, but West just has a lot of small obstacles that pile up and lower his overall chances. DR4 was kind of a flop, but plenty of characters have gotten into Smash with their last game being poorly-received. Moreover, plenty of characters have gotten into Smash in spite of having no probable future as a franchise. With his Xbox exclusivity, one could say he has a Frank Western focus (heh), but we've gotten Japanese characters with a larger western audience before. He's not the biggest Capcom series, but 0/2 of the playable Capcom franchises thus far have been the company's biggest successes sales-wise, so I don't think that inherently matters.
Problem is that all of those things are true at once... Also Capcom is a really big company who notably owns the most famous/important zombie-killing IP of all time - which also happens to be one of those "biggest successes sales-wise" I mentioned two sentences ago. That, um, provides a major obstacle.
Want: Abstain. He was funny in Project X Zone, but that begins and ends my familiarity.
Noms: Moogle x5
Predictions: Well, this is broad. Um. 22%.
Chance: 5%. I could see it happening, but West just has a lot of small obstacles that pile up and lower his overall chances. DR4 was kind of a flop, but plenty of characters have gotten into Smash with their last game being poorly-received. Moreover, plenty of characters have gotten into Smash in spite of having no probable future as a franchise. With his Xbox exclusivity, one could say he has a Frank Western focus (heh), but we've gotten Japanese characters with a larger western audience before. He's not the biggest Capcom series, but 0/2 of the playable Capcom franchises thus far have been the company's biggest successes sales-wise, so I don't think that inherently matters.
Problem is that all of those things are true at once... Also Capcom is a really big company who notably owns the most famous/important zombie-killing IP of all time - which also happens to be one of those "biggest successes sales-wise" I mentioned two sentences ago. That, um, provides a major obstacle.
Want: Abstain. He was funny in Project X Zone, but that begins and ends my familiarity.
Noms: Moogle x5
Predictions: Well, this is broad. Um. 22%.
Huh. Didn't expect much lack of familiariarity with Dead Rising today.
Ninjaed
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2018
- Messages
- 468
Repped by a fighter. ATs and mii costumes don't count for this one, to make things more simple and straightforward. But you can still muse over the difference it'd make in your rating if you so wish. I'd be glad if it sparked discussion.
Oh you're absolutely right, I completely forgot about that ever so tiny detail. Yikes. RIP Frank West's chances.
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GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Today's the last day you can affect the top seven! It seems pretty open and shut to me, but you never know what surprises are around the corner.
The Boss breaks into the top seven, takes Meowth out and steals seventh place.
Red and Alex Mason shoot through 50 noms.
Stage: Bowser's Castle finally climbs out of the under 25 club.
Your new challengers for today are Concept: More ATs as one new item, with 5 noms, and Boss: Rayquaza, with 2.
Ninjaed
I tried to come up with a name that explained your concept more clearly, but no dice.
[Rerate] Rex x190
[Rerate] Steve x155
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x140
Louie x130
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x111
Decidueye x107
The Boss (Saints Row) x105
150 - 101
Meowth x101
100 - 51
[Rerate] Kratos x100
Zelda (BotW sequel) x95
Dr. Eggman x93
D.Va x90
[Rerate] Lip x90
The Stretchers x85
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Proto Man x75
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x66
Fulgore x64
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x60
Nate Adams x60
Moogle x60
Tidus x60
[Rerate] Frisk x55
Red (Angry Birds) x55
Alex Mason x55
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Boss: Ender Dragon x49
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
The Terrarian x40
Shuichi Saihara x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x39
[Rerate] Captain Toad x38
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Gooigi x32
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x31
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
Concept: A person of color x30
Giygas x28
Echo: Xion (Sora) x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Stage: Bowser's Castle x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Under 25
Sakura Shinguji x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
[Rerate] Nightmare x20
Jin Sakai x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Diablo (Diablo) x15
Concept: Dark Souls rep x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x5
John Marston x5
Concept: More ATs as one new item x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Boss: Rayquaza x2
Echo: 40e x1
[Rerate] Steve x155
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x140
Louie x130
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x111
Decidueye x107
The Boss (Saints Row) x105
150 - 101
Meowth x101
100 - 51
[Rerate] Kratos x100
Zelda (BotW sequel) x95
Dr. Eggman x93
D.Va x90
[Rerate] Lip x90
The Stretchers x85
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Proto Man x75
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x66
Fulgore x64
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x60
Nate Adams x60
Moogle x60
Tidus x60
[Rerate] Frisk x55
Red (Angry Birds) x55
Alex Mason x55
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Boss: Ender Dragon x49
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
The Terrarian x40
Shuichi Saihara x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x39
[Rerate] Captain Toad x38
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Gooigi x32
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x31
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
Concept: A person of color x30
Giygas x28
Echo: Xion (Sora) x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Stage: Bowser's Castle x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Under 25
Sakura Shinguji x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
[Rerate] Nightmare x20
Jin Sakai x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Diablo (Diablo) x15
Concept: Dark Souls rep x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x5
John Marston x5
Concept: More ATs as one new item x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Boss: Rayquaza x2
Echo: 40e x1
The Boss breaks into the top seven, takes Meowth out and steals seventh place.
Red and Alex Mason shoot through 50 noms.
Stage: Bowser's Castle finally climbs out of the under 25 club.
Your new challengers for today are Concept: More ATs as one new item, with 5 noms, and Boss: Rayquaza, with 2.
Ninjaed
I tried to come up with a name that explained your concept more clearly, but no dice.
warpenguin55
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 490
Shame that the top 2 slots are rerates when we're this close to getting that ARMS rep. It's the way crap pans out sometimes though. I personally would've liked to see that ARMS rep and any other new content with it first.
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chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
- Messages
- 8,385
If it makes you feel better, a lot of people find Rex in an... interesting position.
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,434
He's covered wars....dammit people already took this joke
Chance: 10%
While Dead Rising has multiple protagonists, Frank West is easily the most iconic protagonist and is the character used to represent the series in crossovers like Project X Zone and Marvel vs Capcom. Dead Rising is a popular series and I just found out the sales numbers from Goodgrief (holy crap 13 million sales!? That's very good). Dead Rising does have Nintendo presence thanks to the Wii game, even if that version isn't very good.
I've seen some people call Frank West generic. Not true. Imagine everything that is in a mall. Baseball bats, guns, lawnmowers, shopping carts, weapons like machetes and knifes, dynamite, batteries, wheelchairs, motor oil, saw blades, just to name some things.....and imagine all the combinations you can make using all these objects. That is Frank's moveset. snowball cannons, spiked bat, tesla ball, electric chair, driller, fire arrows, flaming gloves, dual blades, laser sword, chainsaws, spiky buckets, and you can even fight with a ****** teddy bear. Do I need to go on? Plus Frank is charismatic and has personality.
Normally Frank West would be quite likely, if it wasn't for the fact that he is owned by Capcom. In terms of popularity, influence, and fan demand, he is trounced by Phoenix and Dante and also has competition with Amaterasu and Monster Hunter. Capcom has such a wide catalog of possible characters and even with Frank's positives, it's hard to argue he is more likely than Capcom's top candidates.
Want: 75%
While I would prefer Phoenix Wright or Dante over Frank West, I would still be happy if Frank made it in. Look at the moveset ideas I just discussed and try to tell me that Frank West wouldn't be a blast to play. While Dead Rising at first glance doesn't seem like a series that would fit in Smash, it's actually quite comical and has a fun personality to it. I mean just look at the fact that Frank can wear a Lego head or wield the mega buster.
Besides those things, I really enjoy Dead Rising. I had so much fun going around killing every zombie I saw and discovering all the unique weapon combos I can find. It's a really good series and it deserves a chance at being in Smash. Which is why I nominated him and other characters of this caliber because people usually don't bring him up despite the things Dead Rising can offer for Smash.
Prediction: character from repped third party series - 25% (this is going to be really difficult to estimate)
Noms: The Boss (Saints Row) x5
Chance: 10%
While Dead Rising has multiple protagonists, Frank West is easily the most iconic protagonist and is the character used to represent the series in crossovers like Project X Zone and Marvel vs Capcom. Dead Rising is a popular series and I just found out the sales numbers from Goodgrief (holy crap 13 million sales!? That's very good). Dead Rising does have Nintendo presence thanks to the Wii game, even if that version isn't very good.
I've seen some people call Frank West generic. Not true. Imagine everything that is in a mall. Baseball bats, guns, lawnmowers, shopping carts, weapons like machetes and knifes, dynamite, batteries, wheelchairs, motor oil, saw blades, just to name some things.....and imagine all the combinations you can make using all these objects. That is Frank's moveset. snowball cannons, spiked bat, tesla ball, electric chair, driller, fire arrows, flaming gloves, dual blades, laser sword, chainsaws, spiky buckets, and you can even fight with a ****** teddy bear. Do I need to go on? Plus Frank is charismatic and has personality.
Normally Frank West would be quite likely, if it wasn't for the fact that he is owned by Capcom. In terms of popularity, influence, and fan demand, he is trounced by Phoenix and Dante and also has competition with Amaterasu and Monster Hunter. Capcom has such a wide catalog of possible characters and even with Frank's positives, it's hard to argue he is more likely than Capcom's top candidates.
Want: 75%
While I would prefer Phoenix Wright or Dante over Frank West, I would still be happy if Frank made it in. Look at the moveset ideas I just discussed and try to tell me that Frank West wouldn't be a blast to play. While Dead Rising at first glance doesn't seem like a series that would fit in Smash, it's actually quite comical and has a fun personality to it. I mean just look at the fact that Frank can wear a Lego head or wield the mega buster.
Besides those things, I really enjoy Dead Rising. I had so much fun going around killing every zombie I saw and discovering all the unique weapon combos I can find. It's a really good series and it deserves a chance at being in Smash. Which is why I nominated him and other characters of this caliber because people usually don't bring him up despite the things Dead Rising can offer for Smash.
Prediction: character from repped third party series - 25% (this is going to be really difficult to estimate)
Noms: The Boss (Saints Row) x5
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BowserKing
Smash Lord
Frank West
Chance: 10%. We already have 3 Capcom characters already, so that lowers it down a bit. Then again, if we are to get a fourth Capcom rep, it would more likely be Chun Li, Dante or Phoenix Wright. With that said, it is not impossible, but most likely, he would more likely to be a spirit in an event.
Want: 50%. I don't know too much about him, but he could be a fun character to play as. He has some potential as well, and overall, he would be a decent choice for the roaster.
Prediction: Repped Third Party Rep (15%)
Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Stage: Bowser's Castle
Chance: 10%. We already have 3 Capcom characters already, so that lowers it down a bit. Then again, if we are to get a fourth Capcom rep, it would more likely be Chun Li, Dante or Phoenix Wright. With that said, it is not impossible, but most likely, he would more likely to be a spirit in an event.
Want: 50%. I don't know too much about him, but he could be a fun character to play as. He has some potential as well, and overall, he would be a decent choice for the roaster.
Prediction: Repped Third Party Rep (15%)
Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Stage: Bowser's Castle
Sid-cada
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2013
- Messages
- 1,784
Frank West
Chance - 0.5% - While the first few games did decently, the last one did very poorly and has put the series into dormancy. News of the closure of the home studio might as well say that it's never coming back. Lacking either a modern pull or a Nintendo-centric history is a major doubt on his chances. Put being a part of Capcom's crowded roster, and you have to really stand out to have a chance.
Want - 40% - There are other Capcom characters that I would like to get in first. I don't have strong feelings about him otherwise.
Nominations
Lip X5
Chance - 0.5% - While the first few games did decently, the last one did very poorly and has put the series into dormancy. News of the closure of the home studio might as well say that it's never coming back. Lacking either a modern pull or a Nintendo-centric history is a major doubt on his chances. Put being a part of Capcom's crowded roster, and you have to really stand out to have a chance.
Want - 40% - There are other Capcom characters that I would like to get in first. I don't have strong feelings about him otherwise.
Nominations
Lip X5
"Frank West? I thought you said Frunk Weast!" (. . .Yeah, that's the best one I got.)
Chance: 7%
Always nice to wait a bit to see other people rate a character that you're not too familiar with - it helps form your own opinion without having to go out of your way to research. But irrelevant ramble aside. . . the main character from a series that's by all accounts dead (no pun intended), and has other major Capcom characters, like Phoenix Wright, Dante, Amaterasu, or even the Resident Evil main cast to compete with? Yeah, I'd say his chances aren't exactly the best. Plus, from what I can tell, there isn't really much in the way of fan demand for this character, which can also be a serious strike against him.
Want: Abstain
I have no familiarity with the series. No want rating from me.
Predicting the double dipping third-party reps to get around 13.62%.
Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.
Chance: 7%
Always nice to wait a bit to see other people rate a character that you're not too familiar with - it helps form your own opinion without having to go out of your way to research. But irrelevant ramble aside. . . the main character from a series that's by all accounts dead (no pun intended), and has other major Capcom characters, like Phoenix Wright, Dante, Amaterasu, or even the Resident Evil main cast to compete with? Yeah, I'd say his chances aren't exactly the best. Plus, from what I can tell, there isn't really much in the way of fan demand for this character, which can also be a serious strike against him.
Want: Abstain
I have no familiarity with the series. No want rating from me.
Predicting the double dipping third-party reps to get around 13.62%.
Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.
I believe we should start the next day?
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,434
Check Sari's post. The day will end tomorrow. Not to be rude, but Sari always says when the day will end.
3DSNinja
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2018
- Messages
- 1,390
Not Mega Man
Chance; 0%; I don't see him happening when Dante and Phoenix exist. Dead Rising is popular... but Devil May Cry and Ace Attorney exceed it in every way.
Want: 100%: I love him in MvC3, and he'd be great in Smash. Plus, Dead Rising is one of my favorite Capcom games...
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5.
Chance; 0%; I don't see him happening when Dante and Phoenix exist. Dead Rising is popular... but Devil May Cry and Ace Attorney exceed it in every way.
Want: 100%: I love him in MvC3, and he'd be great in Smash. Plus, Dead Rising is one of my favorite Capcom games...
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5.
RouffWestie
Smash Lord
Abstain on Frank West.
Nominations: Red (Angry Birds) x5
Nominations: Red (Angry Birds) x5
DaUsername
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Aug 6, 2013
- Messages
- 910
- Location
- In that corner over there
- NNID
- DaUsername
- Switch FC
- SW-1418-0536-1998
Abstaining.
23rd party prediction: 30%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x5
23rd party prediction: 30%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x5
Day over. For the record I just wanted to be absolutely sure that we wouldn't get a surprise Direct announcement hence why this day was pretty long. I think things are shaping up for a Direct next Tuesday.
Rate Concept: Fighter from third party franchise that already has a character
Day will end Friday night.
Megadoomer
Rate Concept: Fighter from third party franchise that already has a character
- To clarify, this means we get another character from a third party series that already has a playable character in Ultimate. Examples include the Sonic, Mega Man, and Castlevania series. This rating only applies to series with playable characters and does NOT include AT/spirit series like Monster Hunter or Undertale (though you can still talk about them if you like).
- Terry technically represents Fatal Fury, however King of Fighters characters do count for this rating since Terry also represents KoF. Same applies with SMT/Persona and Final Fantasy for Joker and Cloud (who both technically rep Persona 5 and FFVII respectively), so characters like Yu Narukami or Black Mage would count.
Day will end Friday night.
Megadoomer
"You know what they say, the more the merrier!"
Chance: 10%
Not unless those dummy slots are for Echoes. If any current repped franchises are DLC, chances are it'll be Nintendo (as we learned the hard way).
Want: 20%
Eh, sure? However, I would prefer it if the went the Richter and Ken route, though. As in, making them Echo Fighters.
Rex: 65%
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3
Sakura Shinguji ×2
Chance: 10%
Not unless those dummy slots are for Echoes. If any current repped franchises are DLC, chances are it'll be Nintendo (as we learned the hard way).
Want: 20%
Eh, sure? However, I would prefer it if the went the Richter and Ken route, though. As in, making them Echo Fighters.
Rex: 65%
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3
Sakura Shinguji ×2
PeridotGX
Smash Hero
Chance - 5%. Unfortunately, I can't think of very many good options for this happening. Running down the list of series already in Smash...
-There aren't many good options.
,-If we were gonna get a second character from these series, the Mii Costumes wouldn't have returned.
-Who the **** cares about the supporting cast of Pac-Man?
-I can't think of anything stopping it other than an abundance of other Capcom series, so it gets a pass
-The relevant FF game (and therefore the one best suited for a promotional slot) is the one that's already on the roster.
-Bayonetta is a small series, I don't think it's important enough to get a second character.
-There's nothing really stopping another Castlevania rep, other than maybe recency I guess?
,,,-We just got these series, they're not gonna give us another character from these series that quickly.
Only two series don't have anything obstructing their chances (ironically the two series that got echoes in the base game). It's not looking good.
Want - 80%. Megaman X is in my top 5 most wanted characters, and Eggman/Tails are top 15. It's a shame that third parties seem to be one-and-done in terms of new content, I'd like to see that change.
Noms: PMD x5
-There aren't many good options.,-If we were gonna get a second character from these series, the Mii Costumes wouldn't have returned.-Who the **** cares about the supporting cast of Pac-Man?-I can't think of anything stopping it other than an abundance of other Capcom series, so it gets a pass-The relevant FF game (and therefore the one best suited for a promotional slot) is the one that's already on the roster.-Bayonetta is a small series, I don't think it's important enough to get a second character.-There's nothing really stopping another Castlevania rep, other than maybe recency I guess?,,,-We just got these series, they're not gonna give us another character from these series that quickly.Only two series don't have anything obstructing their chances (ironically the two series that got echoes in the base game). It's not looking good.
Want - 80%. Megaman X is in my top 5 most wanted characters, and Eggman/Tails are top 15. It's a shame that third parties seem to be one-and-done in terms of new content, I'd like to see that change.
Noms: PMD x5
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,434
Fighter from already repped 3rd party franchise
Chance: 50%
This is going to take a lot of explanation, so take a drink, sit back, and enjoy the crazy ride of speculation.
First, I want to say that I think it's possible we will get a 2nd unique third party character from one of the already repped series. It looks like we won't get anymore echo fighters and in that case if we are getting more third party characters from the same series, they would be unique. So far we have no precedence for this as the second reps for third party series (Richter and Ken) are echo fighters. But we do have 3rd party fighters that have merit to them, to the point where they could set a precedence.
These fighters below are ones who I think could break the mold. These are characters who are either iconic, highly requested, important to their series, and/or have something else significant to offer to Smash. Keep in mind this is not an exhaustive list as there are just so many characters that fall under this topic and I don't want to be here all day.
1. Chun-Li - One of the most iconic female characters in gaming. She would have a fun and unique moveset and Street Fighter is big enough that it more than deserves a 3rd rep that is unique.
2. Alucard - Highly requested and almost became playable. There is more than enough new Castlevania content that he would bring to justify a challenger pack.
3. Sephiroth - FF7 just got a a remake and he is highly requested. With the lackluster content FF has, I can see Sakurai going back to add more FF content. Of course there is also other FF characters including from other games like Terra Branford.
4. Raiden - In this fan poll done just last year, Raiden actually did very well in Japan and even beat 2B and Sephiroth, two highly requested characters, so this says a lot. Raiden is a major character in the MGS games and is the type of character that not many talk about, but he does make sense to be a character....just like most of the third parties in the first pass.
5. Any Sonic character - Really, this should have happened by now. Sonic is THE third party character in Smash. The fact that we've gone this long without a second character is head-scratching. Even with Tails and Knuckles dead and skinned, we got Shadow and even if assist trophies are deconfirmed we got Dr. Robotnik, the main villain of the series and he is one of the most iconic villains in gaming.
6. Zero - Highly requested and is a big part of the franchise. Yes he is an assist trophy but come on people don't make me bring up my big post on assist trophies.
So clearly I'm confident in the above people.....so what's with the 50% chance? Well I've already brought it up but despite the fact that Sonic has been in 3 (4 if counting Smash 4 as different games) games, he still doesn't have a second rep when there are plenty of good candidates with juicy moveset potential and there's plenty of content that isn't in Smash. This combined with the fact that we have gotten many DLC characters and third party characters at this point when none of them are a unique secondary rep, puts this whole topic into question. You could argue that Sakurai has just been busy putting in the big third parties and the ones he's attached to first, but the problem with that is there are characters like Chun-Li and Alucard who are big and important. Not to mention there are still notable third party characters who aren't in Smash yet that Sakurai might prioritize in order to represent more series and grow relations with other companies. Not to mention the fact that ARMS likely indicates there will be more first parties, which automatically lowers the chances of third parties in general.
So overall, yeah I'm mixed on this. When it comes to this topic, there are plenty of characters who have a reasonable chance and they have good reasons to be included over new third parties. But the ambiguous nature of this pass makes me question if this could truly happen.
Want: Abstain
This is really broad and I've given the aforementioned characters a multitude of different want scores so there is no way I can pinpoint an exact score.
Prediction: Rex - 60%
Noms: Ezio (Assassin's Creed) x10
Chance: 50%
This is going to take a lot of explanation, so take a drink, sit back, and enjoy the crazy ride of speculation.
First, I want to say that I think it's possible we will get a 2nd unique third party character from one of the already repped series. It looks like we won't get anymore echo fighters and in that case if we are getting more third party characters from the same series, they would be unique. So far we have no precedence for this as the second reps for third party series (Richter and Ken) are echo fighters. But we do have 3rd party fighters that have merit to them, to the point where they could set a precedence.
These fighters below are ones who I think could break the mold. These are characters who are either iconic, highly requested, important to their series, and/or have something else significant to offer to Smash. Keep in mind this is not an exhaustive list as there are just so many characters that fall under this topic and I don't want to be here all day.
1. Chun-Li - One of the most iconic female characters in gaming. She would have a fun and unique moveset and Street Fighter is big enough that it more than deserves a 3rd rep that is unique.
2. Alucard - Highly requested and almost became playable. There is more than enough new Castlevania content that he would bring to justify a challenger pack.
3. Sephiroth - FF7 just got a a remake and he is highly requested. With the lackluster content FF has, I can see Sakurai going back to add more FF content. Of course there is also other FF characters including from other games like Terra Branford.
4. Raiden - In this fan poll done just last year, Raiden actually did very well in Japan and even beat 2B and Sephiroth, two highly requested characters, so this says a lot. Raiden is a major character in the MGS games and is the type of character that not many talk about, but he does make sense to be a character....just like most of the third parties in the first pass.
5. Any Sonic character - Really, this should have happened by now. Sonic is THE third party character in Smash. The fact that we've gone this long without a second character is head-scratching. Even with Tails and Knuckles dead and skinned, we got Shadow and even if assist trophies are deconfirmed we got Dr. Robotnik, the main villain of the series and he is one of the most iconic villains in gaming.
6. Zero - Highly requested and is a big part of the franchise. Yes he is an assist trophy but come on people don't make me bring up my big post on assist trophies.
So clearly I'm confident in the above people.....so what's with the 50% chance? Well I've already brought it up but despite the fact that Sonic has been in 3 (4 if counting Smash 4 as different games) games, he still doesn't have a second rep when there are plenty of good candidates with juicy moveset potential and there's plenty of content that isn't in Smash. This combined with the fact that we have gotten many DLC characters and third party characters at this point when none of them are a unique secondary rep, puts this whole topic into question. You could argue that Sakurai has just been busy putting in the big third parties and the ones he's attached to first, but the problem with that is there are characters like Chun-Li and Alucard who are big and important. Not to mention there are still notable third party characters who aren't in Smash yet that Sakurai might prioritize in order to represent more series and grow relations with other companies. Not to mention the fact that ARMS likely indicates there will be more first parties, which automatically lowers the chances of third parties in general.
So overall, yeah I'm mixed on this. When it comes to this topic, there are plenty of characters who have a reasonable chance and they have good reasons to be included over new third parties. But the ambiguous nature of this pass makes me question if this could truly happen.
Want: Abstain
This is really broad and I've given the aforementioned characters a multitude of different want scores so there is no way I can pinpoint an exact score.
Prediction: Rex - 60%
Noms: Ezio (Assassin's Creed) x10
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
I'll abstain from rating chance. I think it's really broad and I don't know if I can give a number when so many different characters are in play.
My want will be 55%. If we get them, great! If we don't, well, that's not necessarily bad. That extra 5% is because I always root for the underdog.
Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Rex prediction: 79.35%
My want will be 55%. If we get them, great! If we don't, well, that's not necessarily bad. That extra 5% is because I always root for the underdog.
Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Rex prediction: 79.35%
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2018
- Messages
- 2,014
3rd party series getting another rep
Chance 10% - Lets break it down a little
Metal Gear Solid - Highly unlikely due to lawsuits, probably was really damn tough to even get Snake back
Sonic - Probably the most likley with Eggman not being anywhere, Tails being well known, and Shadow being an easy echo choice
Megaman - Doubtful
Pacman - Nope
Street fighter - Maaaaaaybe since Chun Li still exists but feels unlikely with so many over good Capcom series unrepped
Final Fantasy - The remake of 7 gives a little hope here but since SE likely wont give them enough for a quality FP I don't see it
Bayonetta - Nope
Castlevania - Alucard or Dracula upgrade maybe but I'm not feeling high on that
Persona/SMT - Doubtful
Dragon Quest - Too much competition from other SE reps
BK - Nope
Fatal Fury/KOF - Terry feels like he was meant to rep the whole series there.
So that leaves us with Sonic, Street Fighter, and Castlevania. Castlevania already has a ton of content so I'm gonna go ahead and say no to them. Street Fighter has 2 characters already and lots of other series going against them that Capcom might want to promote even though Chun Li would be a great get. So that leaves us with likely just Sonic, which I think is popular enough to get a rep before other Sega series like Yakuza and Puyo Puyo. But will it happen? There's plenty of good picks, but there's also a lot of Sonic content already here. The best shot feels like Shadow showing up as a surprise echo but that probably won't happen. Eggman or Tails wouldn't shock me but IDK if there's enough Sonic content out there to build a hype pass around.
Overall though I think they're stick to new series for 3rd parties
Want 60 - Yeah, there's a few characters I'd like to see get in from repepd series. Chun Li is the most obvious and I think she should have come before Ken. Dr Eggman really should have a bigger role in the game IMO and being playable makes a ton of sense too. Final Fantasy has a ton of notable characters and Tifa or Sephiroth getting in would be dope.
Predictions
Rex- 15%
Noms:
Stretchers x5
Chance 10% - Lets break it down a little
Metal Gear Solid - Highly unlikely due to lawsuits, probably was really damn tough to even get Snake back
Sonic - Probably the most likley with Eggman not being anywhere, Tails being well known, and Shadow being an easy echo choice
Megaman - Doubtful
Pacman - Nope
Street fighter - Maaaaaaybe since Chun Li still exists but feels unlikely with so many over good Capcom series unrepped
Final Fantasy - The remake of 7 gives a little hope here but since SE likely wont give them enough for a quality FP I don't see it
Bayonetta - Nope
Castlevania - Alucard or Dracula upgrade maybe but I'm not feeling high on that
Persona/SMT - Doubtful
Dragon Quest - Too much competition from other SE reps
BK - Nope
Fatal Fury/KOF - Terry feels like he was meant to rep the whole series there.
So that leaves us with Sonic, Street Fighter, and Castlevania. Castlevania already has a ton of content so I'm gonna go ahead and say no to them. Street Fighter has 2 characters already and lots of other series going against them that Capcom might want to promote even though Chun Li would be a great get. So that leaves us with likely just Sonic, which I think is popular enough to get a rep before other Sega series like Yakuza and Puyo Puyo. But will it happen? There's plenty of good picks, but there's also a lot of Sonic content already here. The best shot feels like Shadow showing up as a surprise echo but that probably won't happen. Eggman or Tails wouldn't shock me but IDK if there's enough Sonic content out there to build a hype pass around.
Overall though I think they're stick to new series for 3rd parties
Want 60 - Yeah, there's a few characters I'd like to see get in from repepd series. Chun Li is the most obvious and I think she should have come before Ken. Dr Eggman really should have a bigger role in the game IMO and being playable makes a ton of sense too. Final Fantasy has a ton of notable characters and Tifa or Sephiroth getting in would be dope.
Predictions
Rex- 15%
Noms:
Stretchers x5
Ridrool64
Smash Lord
Personally, I don't expect another Smash showcase until at least the 23rd, because next week is Pokémon's week. And I don't think Nintendo will let one of the games eat the hype of the other.
Now, on with the show: Sonic's friends "ruining" another game after over a decade-long break (or How I learned to stop worrying and love represented third parties)
Chance: 20%. In general. Now these are a really interesting set of characters we have here: iconic gaming legends like Tails, Eggman, Sephiroth, Chun-li, Zero and Alucard. All of them have pretty big fanbases in the Smash community (being popular enough to stay in the conversation), to the extent that for the longest time Tails was THE number 1 most requested SEGA character post-Sonic. These are characters who are mostly immune to irrelevancy and have star power in their own right, to the extent that some of them even get spinoffs or even main series titles about them (like, Tails Adventure or Mega Man Zero, or Symphony of the Night). And they all come from basically legendary series. With accolades like that, why isn't their inclusion a no-brainer?
But they all have a common flaw: diminishing returns. Who do you know that would get Ultimate for Tails or Eggman that didn't already for Sonic? Who would get Ult for Sephiroth that didn't do it for Cloud? Chun-li and Ryu? To an extent, even Zero and Alucard fall under this problem. This would likely keep them from being on Nintendo's radar; there's not much of a financial reason to add them here, as you can reasonably assume that those fanbases would get the game, and potentially the DLC anyway. Under Sakurai, that'd probably be little more than an annoyance, but I think that there's a greater picture here. To another problem, you're also just adding more to what's already there when it comes to stages, Spirits and music, in some cases being a major problem because there's so little left to add that it all becomes a challenge to find anything of value. If you believe Waluigi is thwarted by Spirits, you'd better believe that Eggman is also very dry of good candidates. (At least this isn't a challenge to Sephiroth due to Cloud coming with minimalist content, but he falls under the first problem).
If there's a third party equivalent of the "base game pick", then these guys are definitely it; pretty much all the reasons I'm pretty sure they won't happen have to do with the DLC set-up we can infer based on this game and the previous duology. But even then, these guys still have to prove themselves to new series. And if the past is any indication, there seems to be a bias towards newcomers from unrepresented series (out of all the unique third parties added to the game, 100% of the time they've been from new series. Considering Simon and Richter came as a package deal, the only known addition to a represented third party series that was previously present in Smash... is Ken. And he got in because he was an Echo.
Now there is an exception, and that's secondary reps for Final Fantasy, Shin Megami Tensei/Persona or Dragon Quest outside the scope of what's already represented. So characters like Terra, Kefka, Demi-fiend, Maya, or a rep from an unrepresented DQ game like Dragonlord. These guys stand... a slightly better chance, since these tend to be games that form their "own" fanbase separate from the other games due to different settings and mechanics. This also allows them to not have to worry about the Spirit/stage/music problem. They still compete with other reps, but overall I'd be a bit more willing to entertain them as a whole (though individually I think Terra and Kefka aren't that likely, and most of them have other problems like no relevance/fan demand). Another exception is an Echo Fighter but that's long confirmed, so.
Want: 0%, single-handedly because Tails and Eggman tank the score. But ignoring them it'd be closer to a 100%. I think Smash, going forward with third parties, should try to strike a balance between adding to already represented series and making the crossover just a little bit bigger every time. These are legendary characters we're dealing with, and for all their faults, I don't think they'd have any trouble presenting something new to the crowd. For example, Alucard would fit right in, as would Zero, presenting new gameplay options and mechanics to bring to the world of Smash. Final Fantasy may have the worst representation of all time out of any series with a playable character. Even the characters I decry would, admittedly, be outstanding inclusions that would make up for Sonic's lackluster moveset. There's a lot of untapped potential here.
Red x 5. Rex is going to get absurdly high scores from people who don't even know if it's Spring Man yet. 55.30%. At least one 100% will be present, probably as part of a double 100%'s.
Now, on with the show: Sonic's friends "ruining" another game after over a decade-long break (or How I learned to stop worrying and love represented third parties)
Chance: 20%. In general. Now these are a really interesting set of characters we have here: iconic gaming legends like Tails, Eggman, Sephiroth, Chun-li, Zero and Alucard. All of them have pretty big fanbases in the Smash community (being popular enough to stay in the conversation), to the extent that for the longest time Tails was THE number 1 most requested SEGA character post-Sonic. These are characters who are mostly immune to irrelevancy and have star power in their own right, to the extent that some of them even get spinoffs or even main series titles about them (like, Tails Adventure or Mega Man Zero, or Symphony of the Night). And they all come from basically legendary series. With accolades like that, why isn't their inclusion a no-brainer?
But they all have a common flaw: diminishing returns. Who do you know that would get Ultimate for Tails or Eggman that didn't already for Sonic? Who would get Ult for Sephiroth that didn't do it for Cloud? Chun-li and Ryu? To an extent, even Zero and Alucard fall under this problem. This would likely keep them from being on Nintendo's radar; there's not much of a financial reason to add them here, as you can reasonably assume that those fanbases would get the game, and potentially the DLC anyway. Under Sakurai, that'd probably be little more than an annoyance, but I think that there's a greater picture here. To another problem, you're also just adding more to what's already there when it comes to stages, Spirits and music, in some cases being a major problem because there's so little left to add that it all becomes a challenge to find anything of value. If you believe Waluigi is thwarted by Spirits, you'd better believe that Eggman is also very dry of good candidates. (At least this isn't a challenge to Sephiroth due to Cloud coming with minimalist content, but he falls under the first problem).
If there's a third party equivalent of the "base game pick", then these guys are definitely it; pretty much all the reasons I'm pretty sure they won't happen have to do with the DLC set-up we can infer based on this game and the previous duology. But even then, these guys still have to prove themselves to new series. And if the past is any indication, there seems to be a bias towards newcomers from unrepresented series (out of all the unique third parties added to the game, 100% of the time they've been from new series. Considering Simon and Richter came as a package deal, the only known addition to a represented third party series that was previously present in Smash... is Ken. And he got in because he was an Echo.
Now there is an exception, and that's secondary reps for Final Fantasy, Shin Megami Tensei/Persona or Dragon Quest outside the scope of what's already represented. So characters like Terra, Kefka, Demi-fiend, Maya, or a rep from an unrepresented DQ game like Dragonlord. These guys stand... a slightly better chance, since these tend to be games that form their "own" fanbase separate from the other games due to different settings and mechanics. This also allows them to not have to worry about the Spirit/stage/music problem. They still compete with other reps, but overall I'd be a bit more willing to entertain them as a whole (though individually I think Terra and Kefka aren't that likely, and most of them have other problems like no relevance/fan demand). Another exception is an Echo Fighter but that's long confirmed, so.
Want: 0%, single-handedly because Tails and Eggman tank the score. But ignoring them it'd be closer to a 100%. I think Smash, going forward with third parties, should try to strike a balance between adding to already represented series and making the crossover just a little bit bigger every time. These are legendary characters we're dealing with, and for all their faults, I don't think they'd have any trouble presenting something new to the crowd. For example, Alucard would fit right in, as would Zero, presenting new gameplay options and mechanics to bring to the world of Smash. Final Fantasy may have the worst representation of all time out of any series with a playable character. Even the characters I decry would, admittedly, be outstanding inclusions that would make up for Sonic's lackluster moveset. There's a lot of untapped potential here.
Red x 5. Rex is going to get absurdly high scores from people who don't even know if it's Spring Man yet. 55.30%. At least one 100% will be present, probably as part of a double 100%'s.