Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[chocolatejr9]

At least nobody gave this double 100s unlike that time

Don't jinx it. The day isn't over yet...

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Today's character is a shining example of why we should not be counting every character nomination.

What's the point of counting a nomination like this if you know it's just going to be a waste of a day? This thread is supposed to incite discussion and debate about the probability of certain characters. Today has just been "this obviously isn't happening, can we just move on already".

I think it would be a good idea to take joke characters/noms and pair them with a character that would actually create discussion for a double day, so the day isn't a complete waste. This was done way back with Lara Croft and Bubsy, and I think it would work.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

This was done way back with Lara Croft and Bubsy, and I think it would work.

While Bubsy was kinda a joke pick, I nominated him because I thought his Nintendo presence and surprise revival actually would create some decent discussion, but I ended up being wrong.

 

[Ridrool64]

The big long list returns! Extra characters edition! After I posted it early because of certain command mistakes.

Spoiler: Chance Totals

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%), Deep Red is Pipe Dream (2%), and anything below that is Black tier, Hopeless. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.

1. (Team Cherry, Hollow Knight) The Knight (Mii Costume): 63.50% Chance - Likeliest thing we've rated, likeliest Mii Costume so far
2. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
3. (Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
4. Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game: 54.25% Chance
5. Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable: 53.64% Chance
6. (BANDAI-NAMCO, Tales of) Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance - Likeliest character from a 3rd party company with a fighter
7. (Capcom, Devil May Cry) Dante: 49.38% Chance
8. (Grasshopper Manufacture, No More Heroes) Travis Touchdown: 45.28% Chance
9. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
10. (Square-Enix, Mario) Geno: 42.50% Chance
11. (Square-Enix & Disney, Kingdom Hearts) Sora: 40.58% Chance
12. (SEGA, Puyo Puyo) Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
13. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 38.46% Chance
14. Concept: Level-5 rep: 38.33% Chance
15. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
16. Quote (Mii Costume): 36.79% Chance - Least likely Mii Costume so far
17. 2B: 35.41% Chance
18. Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon: 31.31% Chance
19. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
20. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
21. Concept: Dragalia Lost rep: 29.00% Chance
22. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance
23. Concept: New Zelda character: 26.20% Chance
24. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance - Likeliest indie character
25. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
26. Paper Mario: 21.64% Chance
27. Isaac: 20.45% Chance - Likeliest first party from a non-fighter repped series (not counting ARMS, as it's gonna get one soon)
28. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
29. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
30. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
31. Axel Stone: 18.38% Chance
32. Concept: Contra rep: 18.33% Chance
33. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
34. Amaterasu: 18.17% Chance
35. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
36. Rex: 17.52% Chance
37. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
38. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
39. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
40. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
41. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
42. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
43. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
44. Chun-Li: 11.01% Chance
45. Shantae: 10.89% Chance
46. Monster Hunter: 10.75% Chance
47. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
48. Alucard: 9.29% Chance
49. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
50. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance
51. Big Daddy: 7.16% Chance
52. Elma: 6.48% Chance
53. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
54. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance - "Least likely" non-Fighter concept
55. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
56. Earthworm Jim: 5.06% Chance
57. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
58. Carmen Sandiego: 4.43% Chance - Most notable combination of least likely and most wanted
59. Midna: 4.33% Chance
60. Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
61. Bomberman: 4.16% Chance
62. Gex: 3.91% Chance
63. Ryo Hazuki: 3.59% Chance
64. Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
65. Reporter & Wrestler: 3.40% Chance
66. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
67. Sirfetch'd: 2.99% Chance
68. Crypto: 2.67% Chance
69. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
70. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
71. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance
72. Concept: Devolver Digital rep: 1.66% Chance
73. Concept: DLC music packs: 1.57% Chance
74. Hornet: 1.45% Chance
75. Segata Sanshiro: 1.30% Chance - Only character rated to not technically come from a video game
76. The Blob: 1.14% Chance
77. Falinks: 1.00% Chance - Least likely first/second party
78. Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone): 0.92% Chance - Least likely concept
79. Gnar: 0.89% Chance
80. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance
81. Minato Arisato/Makoto Yuki: 0.58% Chance - Least likely Japanese character, least likely character from a repped series
82. Bubsy: 0.21% Chance - Least likely character

Spoiler: Want Totals

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (50+%), Denim? I dunno what this color is, but it represents the Well-Liked tier (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

1. Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game: 86.50% Want - Most wanted Fighter concept
2. (Nintendo, The Legend of Zelda) Concept: New Zelda character: 80.41% Want - Most wanted set of characters from Japan/first party/repped series
3. Concept: DLC music packs: 76.95% Want
4. (Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted individual character, most wanted third party, most wanted western character
5. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
6. Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable: 74.72% Want
7. (Nintendo, Kirby) Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want
8. Concept: Level-5 rep: 71.67% Want
9. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want - Most wanted third party from a company with a fighter
10. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want - "Least wanted" non-Fighter concept
11. (Konami) Concept: Contra rep: 70.80% Want
12. (Nintendo, Donkey Kong) Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
13. (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Where in the World is --->) Carmen Sandiego: 69.73% Want
14. (Square-Enix, Tomb Raider) Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
15. (Nintendo, Golden Sun) Isaac: 67.22% Want - Most wanted new first party
16. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 66.17% Want
17. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
18. Dante: 64.23% Want
19. Axel Stone: 64.14% Want
20. 2B: 64.09% Want
21. Geno: 62.93% Want
22. Travis Touchdown: 62.86% Want
23. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
24. Paper Mario: 61.14% Want
25. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
26. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
27. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
28. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
29. Amaterasu: 60.00% Want
30. Alucard: 58.63% Want
31. Chun-Li: 57.30% Want
32. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
33. Midna: 57.17% Want
34. Bomberman: 55.00% Want
35. Sora: 54.44% Want
36. Shantae: 54.28% Want
37. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
38. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
39. Rayman: 52.35% Want
40. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
41. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
42. Octopath Traveler rep: 51.00% Want
43. Rex: 50.95% Want
44. The Knight: 50.12% Want
45. Hornet: 49.09% Want
46. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want - Worse want total than chance total, the "dread it, run from it, it still arrives" award
47. Quote (Mii Costume): 47.54% Want
48. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
49. The Knight (Mii Costume): 46.85% Want - Also worse want than chance, worse want than fighter
50. Concept: Dragalia Lost rep: 44.36% Want
51. Segata Sanshiro: 43.27% Want
52. Gex: 42.50% Want
53. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
54. Sirfetch'd: 40.64% Want
55. Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone): 38.29% Want
56. Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
57. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
58. Big Daddy: 36.92% Want
59. Reporter & Wrestler: 36.69% Want
60. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
61. Concept: Devolver Digital rep: 34.17% Want
62. Earthworm Jim: 30.00% Want
63. The Blob: 28.88% Want
64. Falinks: 28.44% Want
65. Ryo Hazuki: 28.27% Want
66. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
67. Crypto: 27.63% Want
68. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
69. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
70. Thrall: 26.50% Want
71. Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon: 25.44% Want
72. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
73. Tracer: 22.73% Want
74. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
75. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
76. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
77. Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
78. Urshifu: 16.46% Want
79. Gnar: 12.67% Want
80. Minato Arisato/Makoto Yuki: 12.19% Want
81. Bubsy: 8.79% Want - Least wanted character

Spoiler: ARMS League

Chance is the only factor in determining ranking, but in the event of a chance tie I'll use want as the tiebreaker.

1. Min-Min: 54.16% Chance, 73.26% Want
2. Spring Man: 49.76% Chance, 62.54% Want
3. Ribbon Girl: 43.91% Chance, 57.15% Want
4. Ninjara: 30.33% Chance, 53.68% Want
5. Twintelle: 25.68% Chance, 48.94% Want
6. Mechanica: 7.43% Chance, 39.71% Want
7. Kid Cobra: 4.64% Chance, 42.58% Want
8. Master Mummy: 4.10% Chance, 31.88% Want
9. Byte & Barq: 1.42% Chance, 44.50% Want

The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy, Warframe reps, and New Horizons reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation.

1. Doom Slayer (2.86% Chance, 44.15% Want) | Interview
2. Ring Fit Trainer (90 Nominations) | Spirit Event
3. Shovel Knight (5.03% Chance, 48.71% Want) | Interview
4. Riesz (Unrated for Volume 2 | Volume 1: 1.50% Chance, 39.75% Want) | Spirit Event

ARMS Takeaways: Twintelle did way worse than some of us could've anticipated. Kid Cobra and the Robocops (is a good name for a band), did about as poorly as most of us expected. Fun fact: while I was thinking of Kid Cobra it was Misango who was popping up in my head. Guess I really do forget he exists.

Non-ARMS Takeaways: Axel Stone barely topped Arle in terms of want, couldn't get anywhere near her in chance: kinda like a weaker performing Kiryu, people want SEGA characters a lot. Civilization and Jim didn't do that hot, considering they're out of style with either the younger crowd or the Nintendo crowd. People have no faith in DLC music but are practically begging for it. Level-8 did really well for itself, and a Gen 8 Pokémon did surprisingly well in chance for having a Spirit event. In want though, yeah people aren't exactly begging for it.

---

 

[Sid-cada]

Baldi

Chance - 0% - Baldi has had less cultural impact than FNAF, it's own cultural sphere. It's way past it's prime. I can't even think of a positive.

Want - 0% - This character should have remained forgotten. Not here.


Nominations

Lip X5

Spoiler: Yesterday's stuff, because I was the one who nominated it

Nippon Ichi Rep

Chance - 2.5% - They have a minor Nintendo presence, though not quite a lot. Disgaea is the ovious choice here, though there are edge cases like Asagi (who is literally without a home franchise because her game was cancelled), or a Prinny (who appear in several of their games). Regardless, their games have some appeal, but their not an all-time great due to appealing to the more grindy JRPG fan, limiting their appeal more, and their seem to be several bigger fish to fry before them.

Want - 85% - Okay, listen, I have a dislike of most RPGs, and have never played one I liked enough to complete. That said, I know enough about Disgaea to know that it's story and humor is basically like Kid Icarus: Uprising, my favorite Video Game story of all time, from the other side of the afterlife. In other words, the perfect crossover of my dreams. I would pay money to make that happen, and the only way (officially) to do that would be through Smash, in my eyes. So yes, give me this.

 

[Opossum]

I wanted to pile on the bad meme character so I came to do that.

Chance: 0%
The coveted zero in a post Piranha Plant world. YouTube clickbait schlock with the shelf life of expired milk. Saw it in my recommendeds for like a week or two then never saw a mention of it again until today. It's a bad meme.

Want: 0%
Characters like Bubsy and Baldi are in that category for me of "haha the joke is that we suck, please buy our game" characters that have no business being celebrated in Smash. There's merit to other viral games getting content in Smash, this isn't about that. Minecraft is the biggest game on the planet, after all. Hell, FNAF is a legitimately large franchise now. But Baldi is nothing but a gimmick that died shortly after birth.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I mean, I honestly think Baldi is a legitimately good parody of how unintentionally scary edutainment games were back in the early 90's.

But I mean...

I'm not rating things so...

 

[Ninjaed]

Today's character is a shining example of why we should not be counting every character nomination.

What's the point of counting a nomination like this if you know it's just going to be a waste of a day? This thread is supposed to incite discussion and debate about the probability of certain characters. Today has just been "this obviously isn't happening, can we just move on already".

Ironically enough, this did spark discussion and there have been several conclusions drawn from it already.

 

[fogbadge]

how did such a universally disliked character get enough nominations?

 

[Swamp Sensei]

how did such a universally disliked character get enough nominations?

I don't even think people inherently dislike Baldi for what he is.

They just don't want him in Smash at all.

 

[fogbadge]

I don't even think people inherently dislike Baldi for what he is.

They just don't want him in Smash at all.

is he a meme?

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Junko & Monokuma from Danganronpa.

Predict Concept: No Third Parties in this Pass.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Danganronpa mood:

Spoiler: Danganronpa Music

-----

Abstaining completely today since I don't know much about the Danganronpa series.

No third parties chance prediction: 37.00%

Nominations:
Zelda (BotW sequel) x5

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Junko and Monakuma:

Chances: Abstain. I don't know enough about them or the franchise to say much.

Want: I can't give a good rating here, but I did like some of the hilarious death ideas. Not enough information to give a score, though.

Predict: No Third Party Chances: 15%

Nominations: Fulgore x 5

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from today because I haven't played enough DR to be qualified to rate this.
No 3 prediction: 1.2%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x5
(Edit: changed my noms)

how did such a universally disliked character get enough nominations?

Probably just one guy nomming him everyday. That's how most characters get to the top nowadays.

 

[Perkilator]

Discount Banjo-Kazooie…kinda?
Abstain. Don’t know enough to give fair judgement for either.

No 3rd parties: 20%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5

 

[Opossum]

Discount Banjo-Kazooie…kinda?
Abstain. Don’t know enough to give fair judgement for either.

No 3rd parties: 20%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5

In what way would this be anything like Banjo-Kazooie beyond just involving a bear?

 

[Perkilator]

In what way would this be anything like Banjo-Kazooie beyond just involving a bear?

A bear and a female person? First and only comparison I could think, and probably a bad one.

 

[Speed Weed]

oh thank god it's over

butch hartman's favorite game

chance: 47%
...y'know, i could actually see this. or at least monokuma by himself. but danganronpa seems to actually be a pretty popular series that's more or less persona-tier in terms of popularity and cultural presence these days. i could totally see dangan being this pass' resident "didn't expect that, did ya" series. of course, dangan has been discussed already by a select few, but that's a given, seeing as we've pretty much been conditioned to expect anything and everything after joker.

ok so i'm giving solo 'kuma a 45%. but i'm giving the kuma-junko duo specifically a measly 2%. i feel they'd go for solo kuma, as he's the mascot afaik and while i don't do dangit grandpa, from what i've been told junko is a BIG spoilerino. on one hand, mecha-fiora. on the other hand, danganronpa is a whodunnit story, so the whole point of it is the plot-twists. with that considered, hopefully sakurai has the decency to not spoil it and go for solo kuma.

want: 30%. i honestly can't be assed to care much for them, but they'd definitely bring something new to smash and i know a lot of people in places like discord and such who'd pop off at this

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Junk food and Ying-Yang bear
Chance: 0.1%
Pretty sure we're only rating this because someone made a render leak of these two some time ago. I know jack about Danganronpa but isn't it generally agreed upon that just Monokuma by himself makes more sense? We rarely get a duo character like this and I don't know what Junko would offer to the moveset Monokuma can't do himself. Pretty sure I've also heard Junko can be seen as a Danganronpa spoiler.

Want: Abstaining

No 3rd parties: 8.26%
Papyrus x5

 

[BowserKing]

Junko and Monokuma

Chance: 5% for Junko and 10% for Monokuma. Chances are, Monokuma is more likely to get in then Junko is, due to Monokuma being the mascot of his franchise. With that said, their inclusions are not impossible. Outside that, they have fierce competition against each over and many other fighters, but likewise, their chance is slim, but not impossible.

Want: 50% for Junko and 60% for Monokuma. They both would be fun characters to play as, but Monokuma would be the better choice, as I can see him face off against Banjo and Kazooie and R.O.B in Battle. Monokuma has some potential, being a bear, a villain and a robot, the combination would be a great idea for Smash. But they would be fun choices, and that's a good thing.

Prediction: no third parties in Fighter's pass: 10%

Noms: 3 for Meowth and 2 for Stage: Bowser's Castle

There, I fixed it up a bit

 

[chocolatejr9]

Junko and Monokuma

Chance: 10%. Chances are, Monokuma is more likely to get in then Junko is. With that said, their inclusions are not impossible. Outside that, they have fierce competition against each over and many other fighters, but likewise, their chance is slim, but not impossible.

Want: 50% for Junko and 60% for Monokuma. They both would be fun characters to play as, but Monokuma would be the better choice, as I can see him face off against Banjo and Kazooie and R.O.B in Battle. But they would be fun choices, and that's a good thing.

Prediction: no third parties in Fighter's pass: 10%

Noms: 3 for Meowth and 2 for Stage: Bowser's Castle

Forgive me if I sound rude, but I think this is what Sari was talking about.

 

[PeridotGX]

Junko Pop & Scare Bear

chance - 2%. Danganropa has decent odds at getting in, but not this combination specifically. We're only talking about it because of a fake leak from forever ago, there's no reason it would be added over Monokuma or whoever the main character is.

want - 20%. I haven't played a Danganrompa game, and I won't have the means to for another half-year, but Monokuma has a cool design and his role in KFAD makes me like him even more. I'm indifferent at best to the Junko portion, but the prospect of something like this in Smash makes up for it.

No third parties: 4.65%

Noms: Decidueye x1, PMD x4

Junko and Monokuma

Chance: 10%. Chances are, Monokuma is more likely to get in then Junko is. With that said, their inclusions are not impossible. Outside that, they have fierce competition against each over and many other fighters, but likewise, their chance is slim, but not impossible.

Want: 50% for Junko and 60% for Monokuma. They both would be fun characters to play as, but Monokuma would be the better choice, as I can see him face off against Banjo and Kazooie and R.O.B in Battle. But they would be fun choices, and that's a good thing.

Prediction: no third parties in Fighter's pass: 10%

Noms: 3 for Meowth and 2 for Stage: Bowser's Castle

I'm unconvinced this isn't a bot.

 

[fogbadge]

ok never heard of these two either, so abstain and put my nominations towards, wolf link again

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Junko and Monokuma

Chance: 10%. Chances are, Monokuma is more likely to get in then Junko is. With that said, their inclusions are not impossible. Outside that, they have fierce competition against each over and many other fighters, but likewise, their chance is slim, but not impossible.

Want: 50% for Junko and 60% for Monokuma. They both would be fun characters to play as, but Monokuma would be the better choice, as I can see him face off against Banjo and Kazooie and R.O.B in Battle. But they would be fun choices, and that's a good thing.

Prediction: no third parties in Fighter's pass: 10%

Noms: 3 for Meowth and 2 for Stage: Bowser's Castle

BowserKing back at it again with the 10% chance score and poorly thought out argumentation. Granted, it's more justifiable here than with Baldi but c'mon man, did you completely miss Sari calling you out on this stuff and others dunking on you yesterday? You can't be that oblivious, right?

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Junko and Monokuma

Chance: 5% - Mainly for Monokuma, I agree that this series could definitely be the Joker pick of this pass if it happens, but I'm not banking on it. Danganronpa, as it stands, has no Nintendo representation of any kind. But like I've said during the solo Monokuma rating several months ago, Nintendo's positive relationship with Spike Chunsoft, the series owners, could be the key. They've worked with them on several titles, mostly smaller games like the Streetpass pack and Wii Play, but also the Pokemon Mystery Dungeon series, Mario & Sonic Rio 2016, a few Dragon Quest games, and more. So the company ties are there and likely doing well, especially with the recent release of a Pokemon Mystery Dungeon title.

Now, this score would be a lot higher if it were solo Monokuma, but since we're rating them as a tag team it'll be much lower. One of the purposes of third party series is to bring over new fans, and Junko's role is a massive spoiler that they likely wouldn't want newcomers to know. Given that the franchise is a mystery series, knowing the massive twist of the series may turn people off from trying it themselves, which isn't good for marketing. So they'd likely go for Solo Monokuma if they wanted a Danganronpa rep. I know first party inclusions have plenty of spoilers but we have yet to see anything like that on a third party character. Most Nintendo fans already know the Nintendo spoilers from playing the games or simple exposure from other fans who have, while a lot of people wouldn't know these kind of things for third party franchises. So it's in the best interest marketing-wise to keep a tight lip on spoilers.

Want: 20% - Not too interested in the franchise, but Monokuma has a cool design and it'd be interesting to see what he brings to the table. Junko I'm so-so on, and I think having her tethered to Monokuma would limit the bear's potential. But I've never played Danganronpa so feel free to correct me on that. Plus it has the novelty of being so unexpected. Though I personally would like to see one of the Danganronpa games get a Switch port first to give them a little Nintendo history.


Nominations:
Louie x5

Predictions:
All First Party Pass - 26.43%

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstaining from Junko & Monokuma. I don't know enough about Danganronpa.

Noms: Ahri x5

Probably just one guy nomming him everyday. That's how most characters get to the top nowadays.

AFAIK thats how it happened. Never saw anyone nom him besides me

 

[RouffWestie]

Junko & monokuma
Chance: 25%
It was a modern success but it doesn't seem like Nintendo would jump for it before other more recognizable franchises. Danganronpa was acknowledged by Sakurai, but with Nintendo behind the picks, I don't feel this matters too much. It would make sense, but I have my doubts with only 5 characters remaining.
Want: 0%
I don't have much interest in this franchise. It doesn't seem like it has anything to offer me. I wouldn't care if they got in or not.

Nominations: Kratos ×5

 

[Kotor]

Junko & Monokuma

Chance: Abstain
A pair of characters I've never heard of until Smash speculation. While I'll admit, I did run into the series via seeing artists draw characters from different franchises in the game's style, but that's really it. I guess I've seen the characters around, but not knowing what Danganronpa means I couldn't care any less about them. Which brings me to...

Want: 0%
I said I don't see the appeal of Monokuma, and I mean it. I see some two-faced teddy bear and I'm just "Huh?" I get that similar reaction when I saw people suggest Jack Frost from SMT/Persona. Just confusion to why people would seriously suggest them.
Why should I care about a third-party I know little about when I can get behind some I do know like Sora, Phoenix Wright, and Ezio just to name a few?

Rex rerate x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Outta material. I know what Dangan is, and who these are, but still.

Chance: 10%. Okay so this might seem absurdly high to some, but Danganronpa is either quite a bit more popular than some of you guys have noticed or there's fan overlap with the things I like. But, while I think Monokuma by himself or Makoto Naegi could do well, Junko singlehandedly tanks the score because how does she add to the moveset? And while it's no stranger to spoiling first party games, I couldn't tell you a single third party game spoiled by a character inclusion in Smash. Especially one as unmissable as this. We're not getting Junko, I think.

Want: 30%. There's probably more than a few people who want this to happen. While I don't think it's gonna come to pass, I have no genuine attachment to these characters so if they miss the boat, or Monokuma's a costume, or they get Spirited or whatever hey, it's no skin off my back.

Frisk x 5. I feel like the no third parties is going to be a very controversial rating because while it's practically paradise for the first party fans, it's torture for the third party ones (the best 6 or the worst 6 to come, who knows). But in general I think with how DLC has been handled up to this point it's not as likely as others think. And even if it is, the people who don't want this to happen will probably underrate it. 14.60%.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Masha and the Bear
Chance: 40%
I think a Danganronpa character joining Smash has a decent shot when you remember that Spike Chunsoft is in really good terms with Nintendo and they helped develop some of their games for over a decade now. Danganronpa is Spike's biggest IP and it's quite a popular franchise that I would say has attained a similair level of popularity to Ace Attorney.

So why Junko and Monokuma and not any of the protagonists?
To put it frankly, they're the most interesting characters of the series and are generally seen as the faces of the franchise. Monokuma is without a doubt the mascot of the franchise and he has consistently appeared in everything related to Danganronpa. Some might argue Junko is a spoiler so she shouldn't be added, but Smash has a long record of not giving a damn about spoilers, Lucina herself is a spoiler and her inclusion was like a year or two after her game came out. But at the very least I can see Monokuma making it in regardless of whether he's a duo fighter with Junko or not.


Want: 80%
I mean hey I like Danganronpa and I like both Monokuma and Junko. I won't get into the story spoilers but I will get into what these characters can do, especially Monokuma. Monokuma is a teddy bear that has a wide range of weaponry that he uses for executions like flamethrowers, machine guns, bombs, and so much more. He can even turn buff if the situation demands it.

Bottom line is that this character has all the ingredients he needs for a fun and unique moveset. So what could Junko do to spice things up? Well she can work with Monokuma similair to Rosalina and Luma as a puppeteer type of character, we haven't had a character archetype like this added since the last game so this could be something something fun to add.



Prediction: No third parties 11.3%
Nomination: Kratos x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Persona X Ace Attorney
Chance: 60% for Monokuma alone, 1% for Monkuma with Junko
Monokuma himself? Likely as hell. Danganronpa is a huge franchise and he's the mascot. But him with Junko? Not. Happening. Danganronpa is focused around it's story, and.spoiling the entire first game... Yeah, no. FE and Xenoblade aren't completely focused on their atory, whereas DR is.I
Want: 100%: I love Danganronpa, so any representation would be fine by me. though I would prefer Shuichi he has the exact same problems that Junko has. Just... gimme DR in Smash pls.
Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Pupupupu

Chance: 1%
Danganronpa has become quite popular, hasn't it? And Spike Chunsoft has had some history with Nintendo that at least warrants us looking their way. However, I don't think it's at all similar to, say, Level-5 or Koei Tecmo. Danganronpa has yet to be on a Nintendo console. I think Monokuma and Junko have made cameos on other games, but still, for a visual novel that's not at all visually intensive (Ace Attorney and Professor Layton would take more horsepower than Danganronpa) not to be on Nintendo, that's a major foul. Until Danganronpa gets on the Switch I don't think this is happening.

As for this tag team specifically, I don't know. Smash has been pretty lax with spoilers, but they've been pretty much restricted to minor things like trophy descriptions, Spirits, and the like. We've had, say, two major examples: Zelda being Sheik, and Shulk having Mecha-Fiora in his Final Smash. Thing is, both of those are first party franchises (one thing for Nintendo themselves to know when a twist is already well-known, and another is for them to decide for another company's property) and, and this is crucial, neither of those were in the franchise's introduction to Smash. Smash 64 came and went without spoiling Ocarina of Time, but by the point that Melee came around, three years since its release had gone by, a new console generation had started, and Ocarina of Time was a massive hit. If you had wanted to play it, you probably had already. As for Xenoblade, the Mecha-Fiora thing wasn't in Shulk's Final Smash in Smash 4, it was added in Ultimate. (And most likely as a response to the fanbase's demands for Mecha-Fiora content as spoiler or not she's one of the most beloved characters)

So, the bottom line is, I don't see them spoiling Danganronpa upon its inclusion. Smash, especially for third parties, points people towards that series, so to spoil it before people even had a chance to get acquainted is a terrible idea. That goes double for Danganronpa, as it's a mystery series, and this would spoil probably the biggest twist of the series.

Want: 0%
As much of a Danganronpa fan that I am, I've always been ambivalent to it getting Smash content. But this in particular is a big no-no to me. Not only are you spoiling it, and therefore possibly preventing people from getting into and enjoying a pretty cool series; but also having Junko tacked on there would take away from any cool potential Monokuma has on his own. She'd drag him down moveset-wise, as I think he'd be able to go pretty crazy on his own whereas having to tag with a human would slow him down.

Noms: Gordon Freeman x5
No third parties prediction: 17.2%

Predict: No Third Party Chances: 0%. There's too many major characters to ignore. 1st parties still will have more to come, but I never considered it a guarantee for a 3rd party only pass last time either.

Just a heads-up, you're not supposed to predict your own score, but rather what you think the overall score will be. I've seen a lot of people doing this so I thought I should clarify.

 

[Calamitas]

Double Abstain. I have no familiarity with the Dangle Rope, and don't think I'm in any position to give a rating on it.

Predicting the No Third-Parties this Pass concept to get around 13.46%.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.

Predict: No Third Party Chances: 0%. There's too many major characters to ignore. 1st parties still will have more to come, but I never considered it a guarantee for a 3rd party only pass last time either.

I can personally assure you that that prediction won't be the overall chance rating for that day.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Baldi pre-Junko & Monokuma

Gordon Freeman x130
Guardian (Destiny) x120
Papyrus x116
Ahri (League of Legends) x115
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x105
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x105
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x103

100 - 51

Frank West x100
Decidueye x100
Meowth x95
[Rerate] Steve x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x80
Proto Man x75
Sackboy x75
Zelda (BotW sequel) x75
Louie x70
Dr. Eggman x60
[Rerate] Kratos x55
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x52

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Boss: Ender Dragon x49
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x37
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x35
Fulgore x34
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
The Stretchers x30
[Rerate] Rex x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x26
Red (Angry Birds) x25

Under 25

Rival Pokémon Trainer x22
Stage: Bowser's Castle x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
The Terrarian x20
[Rerate] Frisk x20
D.Va x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Nightmare x15
[Rerate] Lip x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x15
[Rerate] Captain Toad x14
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: No Spirit promotions x10
Wolf Link x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Diablo (Diablo) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Jin Sakai x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Echo: 40e x1

Concepts Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies and Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable both cross 100 noms. The former is now tied with Fighter from repped third party franchise.

Lu Bu is now over 50 noms.

Concept: Second F-Zero rep races past 25 noms.

A new concept emerges: Upgraded Spirit, with 5 noms.

 

[amageish]

Junko and Monokuma

Chance: 2%. Let me clear: This isn't my score for Concept: A Danganronpa Rep or a solo Monokuma. Both of those would get higher scores, but today we're rating the duo.

First, honestly, I'm not convinced Monokuma would break the trend of playable protagonists over mascot characters. New Smash characters lately have tended to have an associated gimmick and, if you want to mechanically represent the experience of playing Danganronpa, then that gimmick should be some sort of investigation system, a la Wright in MvC3. Monokuma would represent the brutality of DR better and he certainly is the face the series, but playing as him wouldn't feel like experiencing a DR game - it would feel like watching a compilation of DR executions on YouTube. Now, maybe this wouldn't matter (and obviously it wouldn't work if they wanted to put both Wright and a DR character in the final 5 slots), but I feel like the murder-bear isn't in-line with the focuses Sakurai has taken with DLC characters thus far.

Secondly... Spoilers! I'm unsure what I can safely say outside of a spoiler tag, so I'm going to put everything else I have to say into one. I don't directly spoil DR in this tag, but read at your own risk.

Spoiler: DR1 Spoilers

DR is a murder-mystery visual novel. Figuring out plot twists and who has done it is, like, the point of the game. It isn't exactly comparable to Ocarina of Time or Fire Emblem Awakening, where the gameplay isn't exclusively "Experience this story."

Moreover, the plot twist surrounding Junko is the biggest one in the game. It is the one on which almost all the other plot twists sit. Lucina's thing is revealed, like, 2/3rds through Act 1 of FEA? These aren't comparable in terms of scope. Not to mention that Nintendo tends to be stricter with spoilers for IPs that they do not own.

If DR got in, then I'm sure that Junko's spirit event would be set up based on this twist; however, that's all I would expect. That's how most spoilers seem to be spoiled in Smash Ultimate anyway - via vague references in spirit events that you either get or you don't get.

Want: Abstain. DR is a fun franchise and I'd be happy to see it in Smash, but the fact that they'd effectively be spoiling what I consider to be one of the greatest VNs - and before it is out on Switch nonetheless? Yeah, that's a weird one for me.

Noms: Jill's costume x 5
Prediction: 25%. I think that this is going to be overrated and underrated at once, if that's possible...

 

[3DSNinja]

I can personally assure you that that prediction won't be the overall chance rating for that day.

Because BowserKing, right?

 

[Ninjaed]

Junko & Monokuma

Chance: 35%
Well... dangit. Wunderwaft actually said all I wanted to say. There's almost nothing I can add. He also pointed out that while Danganronpa doesn't have much ties to Nintendo, the company Spike Chunsoft does quite a bit. And with Danganronpa being their biggest IP... See what I'm talking about? He said all that!! So uh... Oh wait! Something that wasn't said yet, Junko was the most cosplayed video game character I believe at some point. That should be indicative enough of the series (or at least Junko's) popularity. I'm actually surprised so many have never heard of it here.

As for the duo instead of Monokuma solo (solokuma?), like Wunderwaft said, it's been a while since we've last had a gimmick like this in smash. Just like how Byte & Barq or the Astral Chain MC could work as a duo concept, so could Junko & Monokuma. Spoilers? Have you seen Byleth's trailer? You're all but spoiled about what happens to Sothis. Or Lucina. Or Metal Face. Even with the spirits you enhance at lvl 99. Really, it's a non-issue.

Want: 70%
While there are characters I'd rather have more than a Danganronpa rep, I'd still be pretty hyped by the announcement. Like Wunderwaft said (what didn't he say that was relevant anyway), Monokuma has access to several weapons so there's plenty of material for Smash already. Then there's the design and needless to say, Monokuma fits right in. It'd honestly be hard to go wrong so I'd gladly welcome it, if only to see the execution for their class trial - I mean Final Smash.

Predictions: 6%

Nominations: D.Va x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

The Ultimate Headmaster

Chance: 1%

Normally I would give Monokuma about a 5% to 10% score, but the nomination is Monokuma AND Junko. So I will be rating it like that. Here is the thing, having Junko be paired with Monokuma would be a major spoiler. I mean it's not like there is a sign saying who she is, but most people who know Danganronpa's premise might be very suspicious about Junko teaming up with Monokuma. I know Smash does have a history of spoilers but nothing this blatant.

But other than Junko, unfortunately I can't see the chances of a Danganronpa character being high. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Danganronpa's popularity has seemingly died down a bit. I haven't been seeing people talk about it as much. It also doesn't help that Danganronpa has never appeared on Nintendo consoles before. I do give it the benefit of the doubt though because of it being one of the most popular visual novels out there and the fact that Junko a couple years ago was the most cosplayed character (though I can't remember if it was just a single category or if she got the overall win). Monokuma does have a loyal fanbase and has a decent amount of requests. Danganronpa is not something to be underestimated and Sakurai even acknowledged it. But if a character were to be included, it would be Monokuma by himself or Makoto. Junko adds little to nothing of value to the moveset.

Want: 99%

Remove Junko and you have one of my most wanted characters: Monokuma. Danganronpa is one of my favorite series and I would love it to get a character. Monokuma has a lot of personality with him being terrifying and adorable at the same time. His moveset would consist of elements from the executions and the fact that he is a robotic bear who has copies of himself and can do things like self-destruct or summon spikes. He is a radical character. And finally, the music. Scrum Debate, Beautiful Dead, Monokuma's tutoring/lesson, Danganronpa's main theme, Despair, Climax Reasoning, All of the Discussion and Minigame music, etc. I love it. I want this diabolical, cute, evil, maniacal, comedic bear in Smash now.

I would add more but I'm busy.

Prediction: No Third Parties this pass - 7%

Noms: Frank West x10

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. The way some people are rating this is making me confused on how I should rate it. Although I will say we're more likely to get Monokuma solo than with Junko.

Nominations: [Rerate] Rex x5

 

[Calamitas]

Because BowserKing, right?

I was actually referring to me personally not intending to give the concept a 0% chance when we get around to rating, but sure, that works, too.