Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DanganZilla5]

No 3rd parties

Chance: 5%

While it's too early to form a pattern, I can't see this route happening. There are a lot of popular, highly requested, and important third party characters not included yet. Crash Bandicoot, Ryu Hayabusa, Phoenix Wright, Dante, Sora, Rayman, heck even characters like Bill Rizer or Axel Stone. While having ARMS be the first fighter is a telling sign, I can't see there not being at least a couple third parties. Nintendo has been working closely with a lot of third party companies. It just makes sense for them to negotiate with companies to strengthen corporal relations and make Smash Ultimate even bigger of a crossover.

Want: 1%

My top 9 most wanted characters are third party characters so heck no. Third parties have been some of the most hype characters. And unless if the pass has a lot of heavy hitters like Rex, Waluigi, Isaac, Bandan Dee and Paper Mario, I can't see myself being too hyped for a first party pass if they decide to go with other first party characters like Dixie Kong or a Metroid character. No offense to those series, I just don't have much attachment to them.

Prediction: Kasumi - 13%

Noms: Frank West x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Mario Party 7 is better than 3 anyway.

Chance: Actually, this is a conditional chance rating! I have two answers: one assuming we get a third pass (and that the third parties have been moved to there) and and one assuming that this is the final pass for sure (and Nintendo either never picked them to begin with, or the team decided to cancel something as monumental as a Smash rep for all third party characters). Use the latter one for my ratings, if they count. This also depends on the ARMS rep. If it's Spring Man, then this just got a whole lot likelier. If it's, say, Min-Min, it's likelier but not as much as if Spring Man was in, because deliberately avoiding Assists basically caps the big guy and other popular Assists like Isaac. If it's, say, Max Brass, and thus Spirits and Assists are off the table there's nowhere near enough candidates to totally snub out third parties (without relying on hypotheticals like a potential new Xenoblade/Metroid/Zelda game rep with the little information anybody has).

Assuming that the third parties have been delayed to a third pass: 70%. The development situation right now could be rather tough, especially due to the fact that in-person face-to-face meetings are not going to be happening for quite a while at best, if not a long time. It's entirely possible that they may have decided to cut their losses and retreat to first parties while COVID makes meetings more challenging to plan out. Assuming the next character is Spring Man, or at least one of the Spirit crew, then there's plenty of options to work with, like megaton star Waluigi, cult favorite Isaac, rising icon Bandana Waddle Dee, legacy lady Dixie Kong, even a revisit to a Xenoblade character who missed the boat last time like Rex, Cross or Elma. There are the Pokémon/Fire Emblem boogeymen, too, even, albeit likely one that recaps the series history (in the case of FE... not so much with Pokémon as long as Nintendo's at the helm). Overall, if there's been changes to the original lineup, this is actually pretty likely.

Assuming that this is it and/or the ARMS rep is a non-Spirit: Assuming they weren't picked to begin with, 10%. However, I would outright go 0% if they decided to cancel any third parties at all. I can't say that this is a good bit likely because it contradicts what we know about DLC newcomers up to this point, and the general ratio of DLC doesn't align with that. As there's a good possibility we won't get any Spirit characters (especially in a non-Spirit ARMS rep timeline), none of the first parties left are major attention grabbers for the general public, and while Nintendo likely doesn't care about preconceived notions of hype, I doubt that they'd decide to go totally without any third parties in this pass regardless because that's passing up easy cross-promotion deals and loads of goodwill between the companies. Also, the idea of Nintendo cancelling any third party fighters is absolute balderdash, unless you really think they're going to just end what will likely be a major event (Smash has... w.

Want... okay, you guys probably all know what I'm gonna give this. An infinity minus infinity (or 0%) because get the **** out of here. There's at least a lot of third parties who can bring stuff to Smash literally no first party could, and severalfold more that could handle new mechanics much more cleanly than their Nintendo counterparts. And if that's not enough, then this would be a colossal disappointment to so many people that whoever the six first parties would be would literally need to be six Waluigies in terms of popularity to not have their fandoms totally brutalized and that's not happening. It would probably be a slow brewing disaster. Not only do I not want this for the sake of the third parties, but also for the sake of the first parties.

That being said, if it were just a delay of the third parties rather than a nonpresence or cancellation of them, that'd be a lot better and a lot easier to swallow. Still 0% because the sooner I can get the characters I like, the better.

Frisk x 5. Kasumi is competing with an extremely likely character, her series has fallen from grace, and worst of all she runs the risk of getting Mai Shiranui'd. 5.30%.

 

[Glaciacott]

No third parties

Chance: 0%
After what FP1 has done and Sakurai himself being so giddy at the chance of being the one person in the industry bringing so many multiple worlds together, I cannot see a timeline where they don't take advantage of more DLC to continue expanding.
I'm also fairly confident Nintendo likes money, and I'm also fairly confident the right third party would help sell more passes. Even if it's just one third party.

Want: 0%
I think even Sakurai wouldn't want this, despite being the one who has to do the actual work for it. Like, I love Nintendo and I am sad forever that Lyn and Dixie Kong are not playable and there's no Rhythm Heaven still and Isaac is in AT purgatory and Andy likely has no chance. But considering the status this game is at I can respect the team going for bigger industry icons like Crash Bandicoot or Lara Croft or Master Chief or Scorption, etc.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Junko & Monokuma pre-Concept: No third parties in this Pass

Gordon Freeman x140
Guardian (Destiny) x125
Papyrus x121
Ahri (League of Legends) x120
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x110
Frank West x110
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x105

150 - 101

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x103
Decidueye x101

100 - 51

Meowth x98
[Rerate] Steve x85
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Zelda (BotW sequel) x80
Proto Man x75
Louie x75
[Rerate] Kratos x65
Dr. Eggman x60
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x52

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Boss: Ender Dragon x49
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x40
[Rerate] Rex x40
Fulgore x39
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x37
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x32
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
The Stretchers x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x26
Red (Angry Birds) x25
The Terrarian x25
[Rerate] Frisk x25
D.Va x25

Under 25

Stage: Bowser's Castle x24
Rival Pokémon Trainer x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
[Rerate] Nightmare x20
[Rerate] Lip x20
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
[Rerate] Captain Toad x14
Gooigi x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Diablo (Diablo) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Jin Sakai x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Echo: 40e x1

Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies passes Fighter from repped third party franchise and steals fifth place. All of a sudden, Frank West covers a lot of ground, nabbing sixth place and shoving Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable off the top seven.

Decidueye shoots past 100 noms.

The Terrarian, Frisk, and D.Va reach 25 noms.

A new challenger emerges: it's Cynthia, with 5 noms to her name!

(again, I don't know if this needs a rerate or not)

I'm not sure what you're asking here, could you rephrase?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I'm not sure what you're asking here, could you rephrase?

I'm wondering if we already discussed that, since I can't remember every day's list. Which is "Concept: Upgraded Spirit to Fighter".

I guessed I phrased the terminology poorly over the last few days. No wonder it's not listed. It didn't make sense. Was that concept already rated beforehand?

 

[3DSNinja]

3rd parties, son
Chance: 0%: Let's see here, Rayman has been leaked to hell and back, Ryu H is ridiculously likely, Lloyd exists, Geno... do I need to say anything there? Oh and also Monokuma has the Danganronpa 20th anniversary, and Master Chief has Halo Infinite,and Gordon has Half-Life 3... which makes them likely as well... I don't see this happening.
Want: 0%: Most of my most wanted are third parties, and honestly, it would be a waste to not have them. Also, I just love the creative ones we get and just want them in smash more.
Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Concept: no 3rd party reps this FP

Chance: 0%
I know, never say never and all, but most big names from Nintendo are in already. Not just that, Sakurai was ecstatic at being at the heart of this gaming celebration that has become smash - he was so happy to make Terry in smash a reality. Even from a marketing viewpoint, it makes the most sense. And I think all most requested newcomers are 3rd party at this point, with only a mere handful of exceptions at best.

Want: 0%
There are so many good 3rd party reps to be had, one could say it's pretty much this RTC thread's raison d'être. Almost all of my most wanted are 3rd party, so it comes as no surprise my want score is 0%. I would never want to sacrifice them for some second rate Nintendo character I can hardly be bothered to care about - at least in comparison.

Predictions: Kasumi - 4%

Nominations: D.Va x5

 

[SmashChu]

Chances 50%:
To start, I've noticed a lot of people saying "There is no way it could happen. Third party characters are too big/hype/whatever". I feel like this line of thinking is a little simplistic. I should also note that people also thought that Volume 1 would be exclusively third party, that they would end on a bang, or that FP 6 must be a massive character to kick it off. These all came out wrong. Why couldn't the notion that we have to have a third party character also be wrong.

The best starting point, absence of evidence, it to say it's just as likely as it is not. There is a real possibility that the entire pass is first party. It's clear they announce these characters in anti-climatic order. This makes sense as you want people to get invested. If they are starting with ARMS, that seems to suggest that's a highlight of this pass. Furthermore, if they had these big hype characters in this pass, why not start with those? Joker received a trailer without gameplay so it wouldn't be an issue to announce them back in March. Starting with an ARMS character could set the tone.

On the other hand, there is the possibility Nintendo would have 1 or 2 characters as mid-way characters. Banjo and Hero are arguably bigger than Joker and were shown off at E3. So there is the possibility Nintendo could just save a character like Travis for E3 (or what would have been E3). Also possibly they would just have the normal suite. Anything could happen.

I think if this was "Would the pass be more Nintendo focused" than the answer would be a resounding yes. I think the fact they started with ARMS means they probably have a lot more Nintendo characters. Among the Nintendo characters not in Smash, the ARMS cast is pretty high profile. As far of it being all Nintendo is harder to say. I will note that if the second character is a Nintendo character, than it's a much better chance it's all Nintendo.

Want 100%
Was anyone expecting me to say any less? I like Smash as a Nintendo crossover so more of that is fine in my book.

 

[BowserKing]

No third parties in second fighter's pass

Chance: we will have to wait and see. Chances are, we would see either half the list or most of the list being Nintendo characters, but I think there might be at least one third party in the second fighter's pass. The reason is simple, they are quite costly, and since Nintendo has a lot of choices of their own characters, I think it's the most likely move.

Want: In my predictions in the fighter's pass, the two characters who are third party are Shantae and Geno, with Sylux, Lugia and Adeleine being the Nintendo Reps. So this would the second time that I would say 0% for want. But I don't want too much third party, I would like to see some Nintendo characters as well.

Prediction: Kasumi: 5%

Noms: 3 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 2 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[3DSNinja]

BOWSER KING DIDN'T GIVE HIS USUAL RATING!

 

[warpenguin55]

No 3rd parties

Chance: 0%
Every DLC has had a 3rd party rep, I don't see that changing here. 1st parties just don't give the same "Wow" factor that 3rd parties do. 3rd Parties hype people more than 1st parties do in DLC, and I'm pretty sure Nintendo knows this. Corona shouldn't be able to screw this up, as I believe Sakurai said the characters were already picked out.


Want: 0%
Here are my top 5 most wanted characters, not really in any order:
LoL Rep
Dante
Phoenix Wright
Lara Croft
Rex & Pyra

4/5 are 3rd Party. No I do not want no 3rd parties.
Also, there aren't many 1st party characters I would actually be excited to see. Rex & Pyra are my #1 most wanted 1st Party. I'd love Akira (idk what they could as). Porky would work for me. Isaac would be nice. I'd like Impa, but I think she'd be a better base roster pick. Assuming Akira counts, there's enough to fill the pass with only the first party characters I want. Would it turn out that way though? Nope

Predict Kasumi 12%

Noms: Alex Mason(Call of Duty) x5

 

[Simnm]

No third party
Chance:0%
With the great reception of the 3rd parties in the previous fighters pass.i dont see sakurai/nintendo not opting to add at least one third party character in the fighters.

Want:0%
For me not having any third parties in tjis pass would be lame.i also dont think there are not enough iconic first party characters to make a good fighters pass in my opinion

Nominations:steve[Rerate]×5

 

[Calamitas]

Nintendo putting Nintendo characters in the Nintendo crossover fighting game? Say whaaaaat?

Chance: 15%
Guess I'm joining the ranks of the outliers here, huh? Well, my reasoning is simple. I believe that ARMS character is going to be telling for the rest of the pass, just as Joker Frompersonafive was for the first pass. Since this logic however means that there's a chance of a third-party character happening nonetheless, I'm still keeping this rating relatively low.

Want: 90%
I'm sorry, but as far as third-parties go. . . I just about stopped caring for them after Bayonetta. The only ones that I actively want at this point are Amaterasu, Phoenix Wright, and maybe a character from Bravely Default, and I don't really see any of those happening. On the other hand, there's only one first-party character that I'm openly against - Rex and Pyra - while I'd accept just about anyone else with open arms. Just give me the first-parties.

Predicting Kasumi to get around 3.26%

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.

 

[Hinata]

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.

I know this nomination is for FP Vol. 2 being "mostly" first-party instead of "entirely" first-party, but it still feels kinda redundant to nominate for ratings, especially considering you did it during the day we're essentially rating the same concept.

 

[NintenRob]

Hoo boy

Chance 10%
The first pass started with Joker and was primarily third party, this one is starting with ARMS. Personally I think the direction for this pass is going to be for characters who they couldn't fit in the base game. Characters people refer to as "Base game picks"
Want 100%
I love Smash Bros for being a Nintendo crossover, I play primarily Nintendo games. All my most wanted are Nintendo characters. While I can appreciate characters like Pac-Man, Sonic, Mega Man. Who are absolute icons. Characters like Joker just make me roll my eyes. I'm tired of Third Party. I'm tired of them dominating discussion. I don't want to be shunned for suggesting a first party character. I don't really care how against the grain this is, I stand by it.

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5

Prediction Kasumi 5%

 

[Calamitas]

I know this nomination is for FP Vol. 2 being "mostly" first-party instead of "entirely" first-party, but it still feels kinda redundant to nominate for ratings, especially considering you did it during the day we're essentially rating the same concept.

Unless I'm remembering things wrong, I started nominating that concept first. And I'm stubborn.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

All my homies hate third-parties
Chance: 0.1%
An Arms rep being shown as the first fighter of this pass could very well indicate first-parties being more prevalent than in the last pass. That said, unless their budget is absurdly low, there's no way in hell not a single slot will be reserved for a third-party with how big of a share they have had in Smash DLC up to this point. Third-parties, like them or not, are just generally perceived as more hyped than Nintendo-owned characters and excluding them completely just sounds like bad buisness to me. Even if FP6-FP10 are all first-party, there's still a good chance the last one will subvert people's expectations like what happened with Byleth.

Want: 15%
I wouldn't totally be against it. I can't really be mad at them putting Nintendo characters in a Nintendo game. This concept would mean way less competition for my most wanted. In comparison to third-parties, there also aren't as many first-party characters I'd be opposed to. (Gen 8 and Dragalia Lost being the huge exceptions) Still, there are atleast two third-parties I'd really like even if Dee made it in.

Kasumi: 6.53%
Papyrus x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm wondering if we already discussed that, since I can't remember every day's list. Which is "Concept: Upgraded Spirit to Fighter".

I guessed I phrased the terminology poorly over the last few days. No wonder it's not listed. It didn't make sense. Was that concept already rated beforehand?

I checked, and no, we've never rated the concept before. But your concept did get on the list, check it again.

3rd parties, son
Chance: 0%: Let's see here, Rayman has been leaked to hell and back, Ryu H is ridiculously likely, Lloyd exists, Geno... do I need to say anything there? Oh and also Monokuma has the Danganronpa 20th anniversary, and Master Chief has Halo Infinite,and Gordon has Half-Life 3... which makes them likely as well... I don't see this happening.
Want: 0%: Most of my most wanted are third parties, and honestly, it would be a waste to not have them. Also, I just love the creative ones we get and just want them in smash more.
Nominations: Gordon Freeman x5

The Rayman "leaks" are a bunch of flimsy evidence hanging together by thread and wishful thinking. And getting a new game (or, even less, just an anniversary) doesn't mean getting in Smash, it never has.

Wait... Did you just say Half-Life 3 is coming out this year?



You're probably just joking and it flew way over my head.

I know this nomination is for FP Vol. 2 being "mostly" first-party instead of "entirely" first-party, but it still feels kinda redundant to nominate for ratings, especially considering you did it during the day we're essentially rating the same concept.

Given the ratings that today's concept is getting, I'm pretty sure that that other concept would get wildly different scores.

 

[Lionfranky]

No third party...

Chance = 0%
I just can't see it. There isn't much choice left within first party. If this is really the case, they will lose trust from fans regardless of first party choices. They already set the bar high. There is no going back.

Want = 0%
No thanks. Many of my wanted are third parties like...
Master Chief
Agumon
Phoenix Wright
Lara Croft
Just top of my head....

Kasumi: 3%

Nom: Neptune from Neptunia x 5

 

[fogbadge]

ooh i can do this one

no 3rd parties in the pass

chances: 0% i just dont see it happening. if sakurai wants this to be celebration of all gaming instead of a nintendo cross over then it probably wont happen. and odds are they managed to get at least one licence before the pandemic considering what we know about the development process. unless im wrong in assuming that they get a licence for a character before they start developing them

want: well as with most concepts like this it depends on who they are so im going with 50% while there are 3rd party characters id love to have (sora, tails, layton, nate, pheonix) there are also many 3rd parties i rather we got no characters instead of. its the same with nintendo characters, plenty id love to have and plenty id hate to have. so really for me it could go anyway, either incredible hype like, inkling and B&K or extreme disappointment like daisy and the belmonts

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Nintendonly

Chance: 1%
Yeah I really don't see this, especially after how big of a success the first pass was. Since Brawl, the main focus of Smash has drifted from a celebration of Nintendo to a celebration of gaming as a whole. Sakurai has stated time and time again that he wants to expand the crossover of Smash as much as possible. The well is really drying up on the Nintendo side of things, only a handful of notable franchises left to pick from, with most being completely dead in the water, but with third parties, the possibilities are practically endless. One major thing we gotta remember is that Nintendo picked the last pass, not Sakurai or the Smash team. Nintendo picked Joker. Nintendo picked Hero. Nintendo picked Banjo. Nintendo picked Terry. It's quite obvious they see potential in third party additions too. Unless they gave the Smash team a significantly smaller budget this time, I don't see them changing that course anytime soon.

Want: 0%
Don't get me wrong I have a quite a bit of first party wants, but going right off the heels of insane internet breaking inclusions like Joker, Terry, and Banjo, getting nothing but 6 first parties for a span of a year and a half-ish (maybe even much longer if the crisis that will not be named affected some stuff big time) would be quite the letdown. Forget the MCU, I'd argue Smash is the real most ambitious crossover in pop culture history, and I want that to continue. There's something so cool just sitting down pondering the notion that franchises you don't really associate together like Super Mario, Metal Gear, Street Fighter, Final Fantasy and Persona are all technically connected thanks to this one game. I want that notion to expand as much as possible. First parties can be cool and all, but there's always this magical feeling whenever a third party gets added that cannot be duplicated otherwise.

Predictions: Kasumi: 4%

Noms: Steve (rerate) x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

No third parties in the pass
Chance: 1%
Yeah, really low. Considering how the first pass went, I'm expecting, at bare minimum, two of them in the next pass. I see very lttle reason for Nintendo to make ALL of their picks for season 2 first party, unless they have a lot of titles to put on the promotion train.

Want: 30%
Okay. Most of my wants are third party. About 8 out of my top 10, to be more precise. So this shouldn't be higher than 10 or 20%. Thing is, even then, that's only a handful of third parties that I truly want, unless we're promoting third party Spirits or ATs. After that, I don't really care if all further newcomers are from Nintendo.

But then I look at the way people whine about Nintendo opening the Pass with ARMS and at the sheer thought of more Nintendo characters people want coming in instead of "expanding the crossover" (which has sadly become a buzz term for "my character objectively matters more than yours") - compared to fandoms like MK and SC, where people welcome their equivalent to first parties with open arms and have a way lower guest character ratio... and I start thinking that the Smash fanbase really got spoiled rotten with the first FP.

As I said before, I love the possibility of the guests I want coming in. Most of my wants are third party by this point. But even someone like me is starting to get tired of the way they've dominated the conversation the way they have. It's usually not even some "out there" choice, just the same dozen or so third party characters being talked about over and over again. Even as someone who has more guests to be hyped about... this anti-first party sentiment has soured speculation for me in the past month or so.

Predictions
Kasumi: 2.13%

Nominations
Ahri x 5

 

[Speed Weed]

alright

let me start this with an introductory statement

ahem

first-parties bad

you may now commence the offering of reddit gold. thank you.

chance: abstain

want: i'm pulling a 50/50 on this one. i'm of the opinion that there's still tons of cool grabs on the nintendo side and the way the community's been constantly ****ting on first-parties, strawmanning their fans and then acting like they're the ones being attacked for their wants has been bothering me. but, let's be honest, this is something that they could screw up very easily, even though it does have potential, it's very easy for them to focus too much on their big boys and on promo picks. it'd be better imo if they threw in a big fan request, or if they threw in a couple characters from dormant series, just so that the pass can feel less...."corporate", i wanna say? though i will say, i think arms is already a step in the right direction if things end up going down the way of first-parties only. so if they went, say, spring man, paper mario, sylux, rex, gen 8 and waluigi, these characters are all great individually, but when put together imo they'd make a pretty boring and cookie-cutter pass. now if they went, for example, spring man, bandana dee, isaac, dixie kong, saki and ray mk III? holy crap ya BET i'd be poppin' off in the streets of lisbon that day

and to clarify a bit: about 90% of my current wants are third-parties. i LOVE third-parties and i absolutely want them to keep coming. i just think there's still some merit in going further into the nintendo stable before writing them off, which shouldn't be for a while

and here i go editing my post again to make my point clearer: tl;dr, a nintendo-only pass could be either really good or really ****ty

 

[chocolatejr9]

Concept: No third-parties in the Fighter's Pass

Chance: 0%
Based on precedence alone, I find this incredibly unlikely. Both Smash 4's DLC and FP1 had a HUGE emphasis on the new third party additions, each only having one first-party newcomer (Corrin and Byleth). Even if this Pass is on a tighter budget, I doubt SNK is the only third-party cheap enough to work with.
Want: 0%
Look, I'm sorry, but this first vs. third party debate needs to die in a fire. Smash Bros stopped being a celebration of Nintendo alone the moment they added Snake in Brawl. Ever since then, Smash has been a celebration of gaming in general, and Sakurai clearly wants to keep it that way. As such, we all need to just accept that third-parties are here to stay, whether we like it or not.

Nominations: [Rerate] Rex x5

 

[fogbadge]

oh hold on forgot my nominations, nate adams x5

Look, I'm sorry, but this first vs. third party debate needs to die in a fire. Smash Bros stopped being a celebration of Nintendo alone the moment they added Snake in Brawl. Ever since then, Smash has been a celebration of gaming in general, and Sakurai clearly wants to keep it that way. As such, we all need to just accept that third-parties are here to stay, whether we like it or not.

no i think it stopped some where between ryu and the demon lady, brawl and base game smash 4 are still mostly nintendo

 

[chocolatejr9]

oh hold on forgot my nominations, nate adams x5



no i think it stopped some where between ryu and the demon lady, brawl and base game smash 4 are still mostly nintendo

Sorry. I meant that as in the moment third-parties became a thing in Smash. I should've worded that better.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Chance: 0%
If this pass is about reconfirming the deconfirmed, there's still some third-party options to consider. Bomberman, Zero, Geno, Wonder-Red, Rayman are all potential third-parties already represented in the game (So is Alucard, but I'm not sure he could have a decent challenger pack), and even if it's not just about reconfirming the deconfirmed, I'd think they'd at least throw third-party fans at least one bone.

Want: 50%

Some people STILL need reminders that it's not all about the biggest third-parties out there, but I am willing to discuss potential third-party characters when we actually discuss the characters' potential movesets, content etc. , not "Sakurai is more likely to find Bigfoot than go bankrupt from making Waluigi a DLC fighter, but we can't risk that!"

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

A third-party-less Fighters Pass

Chance: 15%. While the ARMS inclusion presumably carves the way for this happening, I'd like to remind everyone that a similar route was carved in the opposite direction last time, and then we got Byleth. In addition to that, it seems a tad silly to deduct that Nintendo won't try to keep the retention of the masses who wish to have big crossovers become the norm. Sure, Nintendo has pulled quite a few curveballs, but that goes both ways, and I would be more inclined to believe this idea is not gonna become reality. Maybe a majority of Nintendo reps will happen, but an entire exclusive pass of one seems much less possible.

Want: 90%. I must have said this before, if so it bears repeating: I'm tired of the third-party inclusions. I did not get into this franchise to embrace a large number of guests, and the last pass was mostly unappealing for me due to this. I don't trust the Smash devs to include characters from outside franchises I like, and even if I did I don't have confidence they'll be done right. For instance, if they added Dovahkiin from Skyrim and only added Nord options, I would immediately pass on a favorite game of mine getting in. I should mention that there is a possibility I won't be happy with this topic's proposed scenario, particularly if there's only characters from new and/or already overrepresented Nintendo franchises, but I feel like that would be more acceptable than what 2019 implied.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Nintendon't even think about inviting special guests for whatever reason.

Chance: ???
This move is subjective, and entirely up to Sakurai, and there's no way to properly tell whether or not we're only getting first party characters. Besides, only 1/6 slots are currently taken as of now.

Want: 0%
Why would anyone want this? Some of the most exciting, worthy, and internet breaking reveals are third party characters, and I have a few third parties in my most wanted, mainly Crash and Reaper. A mixed pass is the way to go, since you can appeal to both sides. And as Speed Weed mentioned, an all Nintendo pass could go really well, or really badly, depending on character choice. And I'm not one to get mad at Nintendo/Sakurai for adding a "shill" pick. Toxtricity is in my most wanted after all. My overall opinion on choice relies on character design, moveset potential, and whether or not I like the character chosen. This is why I'm open and optimistic towards Pokémon characters, but not so much with Fire Emblem, since a lot of their characters tend to share many of the same moves.

D.Va x5

 

[BernkastelWitch]

No Third Parties at all.

Chance: 1%

It's not impossible for this to be a strictly 1st party pass but it's extremely unlikely. There's a whole slew of third party characters Sakurai and Nintendo could look into, people have been begging for various ones for the years, and due to Ultimate, the games have widen to include various characters most people never seriously thought about like Steve, Doom Guy, Reimu, Monokuma, and even Master Chief as potential possibilities. We will get Third parties but the question is how many will fill up the second fighters pass? Will it be like FP1 where it's one first party and the rest third party? An Even Split, possibly? It remains to be seen.

Want: 0%

My most wanteds happen to be third party, simply because all the first party choices I wanted, I ended up getting even on the base roster. And now we have a lot of people discussing third party characters that seem like a possibility now than they were before. It'd disappoint a lot of people if it was nothing but first parties, even if the pass included wanted characters like Lyn, Isaac, or Waluigi.


Also sidenote, it is interesting to see how some people think this is unlikely while others are actively hoping it's all first parties, especially with some still thinking third parties shouldn't be in Smash. Just something I have noticed.

 

[jamesster445]

No 3rd parties in Season 2.

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Sakurai already stated that the COVID situation has prevented him from meeting and discussing with a "publisher". If that publisher was Nintendo theres no reason for secrecy.

And ever since Smash 4, Smash has become a celebration of video games. At very least the games that have influenced Sakurai and the Japanese videogame industry. And I welcome what we get, they've consistently been some of the most interesting fighters we've gotten.

Nominations: Diablo x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

especially with some still thinking third parties shouldn't be in Smash

Okay, at this point, I gotta ask: who even said this? Did I miss someone's vitriolic post or something?

I keep hearing people make this point, and yet I believe the number of people I've found on SB actually preaching this can be counted on one hand.

 

[fogbadge]

Sorry. I meant that as in the moment third-parties became a thing in Smash. I should've worded that better.

but that means the same thing, i under stood

Why would anyone want this?

i imagine there could be a number of reaons, like wanting it to stick to nintendo or not liking any of them

 

[Jomosensual]

No 3rd parties

Chance 1 - I guess it's on the table since the first character is a Nintendo rep. However, I'm not convinced it means anything. Every cycle of DLC has 3rd party in it so far and it's just a smart play to put someone like that as DLC to get money from people who aren't exclusively Nintendo fans.

Want 0 - This would suck, honestly. Assuming we're not doubling down on a series I don't think there's 6 characters that I'd be super hyped over, especially with so many good 3rd party picks out there. I get why people want someone like a BWD or Dixie but I don't really need them. I can live with no spirit upgrades or AT upgrades too, although I'd really like Waluigi to get in. This overall just doesn't sounds that appealing and I hope it doesn't happen. Not that there aren't any Nintendo reps I want, there are some, but there's maybe only 2 more must haves left for me from Nintendo series right now.

Predictions
Kasumi - uh.... 8%?

Noms
Stretchers x5

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Fighter pass with no third parties:

Chance: 20%
It's possible, but I don't think it will happen. Even just one character, even someone like Geno, I don't know... at least one third party is likely to be in the pass. There aren't proofs or evidence of this, it's just common sense.

Want: 99%
There are a few third party franchises that I would like to have in Smash, such as Dark Souls, Age of Empires, Hollow Knight and others, but I grew up with the concecpt that Smash is a game where all the Nintendo characters and universes are mixed together, and if I'm given a choice to add Nintendo content over 3rd party content, I'll always take that choice.
There's a reason for this, and the reason is that the Nintendo representation still doesn't feel complete. There are many big characters and some important series that aren't represented (outside of maybe spirits).

Toad is not a fighter, nor is Toadette...; Tingle was important enough to get a few dedicated spin-offs, but it's still not playable; the Ganon from the classic 2D games was one of the most iconic Nintendo villains along with Bowser, King K Rool and King Dedede, and a few others maybe, but it's still not in Smash as a fighter (the boss does not represent his classic design); Rhythm Heaven still has no major content in the game; Dixie Kong is still missing despite being a main character in her series; there are many beloved one-off characters from Zelda who can be cool as fighters, like Midna, still they're stuck as spirits or assist trophies when we're lucky; Some iconic Animal Crossing characters aren't playable either, such as Tom Nook and K.K. Slider; Star Fox is missing more than half of the crew... Peppy, Slippy, Krystal; Don't let me start with Kirby and the countless unique characters it can add to the roster. On the top of this, Lip's stick has been a major item in the series for 3 games, and despite this, she's nowhere to be seen.

There is more, a lot more, and I would like to see that "more" in the game soon.

 

[Jomosensual]

but that means the same thing, i under stood



i imagine there could be a number of reaons, like wanting it to stick to nintendo or not liking any of them

If out of the thousands of video game characters in the world someone only likes Nintendo owned characters that person is either way too picky for their own good or badly needs to expand their horizons because they're missing out on so much

 

[MasterOfKnees]

No Third Party Characters:

Chance: 0% - If Nintendo wants the pass to make as much money as possible, which they obviously do, then this is a no go. The biggest first party characters they can include at this point don't even hold a candle to the biggest third party characters, the gap is wider than ever before, so I just don't see it making any sense no matter the perspective. The only scenario where I see this happening would be because of extreme budget restrictions, which is obviously not going to be a thing when we're talking about Smash, and especially not this iteration.

Want: 0% - There was a time where I vouched for Smash to keep being Nintendo-centric, and at its core I think it always should be. However, times have changed, and I think we've reached a stage where most potential Nintendo newcomers would feel like luxury additions rather than ones that really bring something special to the game, as almost every big gun Nintendo star is already in at this point. I don't think the Nintendo newcomers I'd personally like have a very strong chance either, not even in a first party pass, Bandana Dee would be the only realistic candidate I'd be even slightly interested in. In general I don't like such strict limitations on who can get in either, my point of view is that the more characters we can seriously discuss the better, and this would only serve to narrow the options more than ever before.

 

[fogbadge]

If out of the thousands of video game characters in the world someone only likes Nintendo owned characters that person is either way too picky for their own good or badly needs to expand their horizons because they're missing out on so much

who are we to tell other people what to play?

 

[Jomosensual]

who are we to tell other people what to play?

I'm not really demanding anyone do anything. Just saying that if someone's goal is to play the best games out there you're missing out on a lot if you only stick to one specific brand. It would be like if I wanted to enjoy Pizza to the highest amount possible but only ate Dominos

 

[fogbadge]

I'm not really demanding anyone do anything. Just saying that if someone's goal is to play the best games out there you're missing out on a lot if you only stick to one specific brand. It would be like if I wanted to enjoy Pizza to the highest amount possible but only ate Dominos

ah but just because the vast majority like something doesnt mean they will. there is nothing wrong with playing only nintendo