Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Another character that perfectly illustrates the hard divide between console and PC gaming history

So, alright, question to the thread. How many of you know this character? Of those of you who do, how many know him through playing the Warcraft games?

*searches for my Arthas rating*
Chance: 0.01%
Really, any Warcraft representation seems like a long shot with its competition from other Blizzard/Activision series, lack of Japanese populairity and Nintendo presence. Some recent events might also effect the chances of us seeing a Blizzard rep anytime soon.

Want: 10%
When we rated Arthas I mentioned Thrall being my preferred pick. Personally, I think orcs are a bit more significant to the franchise than humans and I imagine Thrall having a more fun moveset. I still keep my want low due to my ''get on Nintendo and then we'll talk'' policy. Also I just know a character from Blizzard these days getting in Smash would cause a buch of drama, even if it wasn't Overwatch. I'd rather not have that happen.

No more stages: 9.56%
Meta Knight echo fighter x20

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Double Abstain. I can't be bothered, I know so little and care so little about this character.

No more stages: 7.1%
Zeraora (41e) x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Thrall
Chance: 10%
Improbable, but not impossible. Other Activision/Blizzard IPs have WoW beat in japanese popularity, but it's still a highly influential game, so I'm sure Nintendo and Sakurai wouldn't outright object to it based solely on that. The problem is... WoW doesn't have any particular advantage compared to Diablo, Starcraft or Overwatch, either.

And as others have stated... we have no guarantee Thrall would be picked as the series rep if they went for a non-playable character.

However... it needs to be said that a PC gaming character is one of the last places Smash hasn't really ventured to, so I have no doubt Thrall or any WoW rep would be a big deal if it happened.

Want: Abstain
Never played WoW, but a few friends of mine would be happy to see it in Smash, regardless of Blizzard's current situation.

Predictions
No more Heroes stages: 5.46%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5

 

[BowserKing]

Thrall

Chance: 10%. World of Warcraft is very popular, so it gives that character an edge. Competition would be it's main concern however, but who knows who will arrive.

Want: 50%. Thrall would be a fun character to play as, plus we get new soundtracks and stuff. The characters inclusion would open up more possibilities of characters getting in.

Prediction: No stages after Fighter's Pass: 0%

Noms: 2 for Meowth and 2 for Urbosa

 

[Sari]

Ok I'm gonna reclarify a few RTC rules:

• For both your scores and noms to be counted, you must have at least two sentences for both chance AND want.
• Your ratings must show that you have at least put some insight for the character of the day. Don't just say something like "Could happen. Could not." that could be applied to literally any character. Say who or what may be supporting/holding back a character's chances.

For the record these rules have always been a thing for as long as I can remember, but I've noticed that a few users haven't been following them especially within the past few days:

----------

Day over.

Rate Concept: No new stages after current fighter pass

Predict Sol Badguy from Guilty Gear AND Francis York Morgan from Deadly Premonition

Day will end Sunday night at about 10 pm EST.

Megadoomer

----------

Here's a song to get into the mood of no more additional stages:

Spoiler

 

[Perkilator]

No More Gary, No More Sandy, No More--oh wait, wrong franchise

Chance: 90%
There's a 6th slot in the space of the 5 stages in the Fighter's Pass. Since we're getting DLC beyond the Pass, I do see a sliver of hope that we're getting at least one new stage, and that's it.

Want: 0%
Which is a slight shame, because while I appreciate what stages we have, part of me wishes the emphasis was on new stages and old ones being ones that were absent for a while (at least, not counting ones like Midgar or Suzaku Castle). But hey, I'm not against it if Sakurai really means it.

Sol Badguy: 14%
Francis York Morgan: .4%

Noms: Claude von Rerate x5

 

[Calamitas]

I don't have a good joke for this one, so exit stage, pursued by a bear

Chance: 50%
This one's honestly very tricky to rate. It essentially all depends on what format the post-pass DLC is going to follow, which we currently still don't know. The timing for this rating is honestly just not the greatest, considering that the pass is not even over yet.

Want: 0%
Nah, I don't want that. I want Moar™.

Nominating Concept: Any Xenoblade Character x5.
(There was a moment where I should've stopped, and I clearly passed it. So let's just keep going and see what happens.)

Predicting Sol Badguy to get around 23% and Francis York Morgan around 0.25%.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Just to clarify, how are we rating this? If I give this concept a high chance score, does that mean I'm saying there is a low chance for new stages? It says Concept: no new stages so I'm a bit confused by the wording.

EDIT: Nevermind. I looked at the other ratings. It's clear to me now.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

No New Stages After Fighter's Pass

Chance: 50% - Giving this a decent rating since we still don't know the format for post-pass characters. After the 5th fighter's stage is added the Stage Select will be a perfect square, which is an argument a lot of people use in the concept's favor. However, I don't think Sakurai or the Smash team is concerned with aesthetics in this case, especially since the 3DS version had a "More Stages" button to access some of the DLC stages, and they've made other bizarre decisions in the past. Furthermore, if said post pass characters are 3rd party or from a new series, it would leave them without a stage and without any music! No matter how small a franchise is Sakurai always makes sure to include a home stage for them, so if the remaining characters aren't from series already represented in game, I can't imagine Sakurai denying them a stage.

Want: 0% - More stages equals more fun! and every character deserves their own stage and music, it's simply a part of being in Smash and no series should be denied that!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5
Concept: Civilization series rep x10

Predictions:
Sol Badguy - 14.64%
Francis York Morgan - 0.78%

 

[Wunderwaft]

No more stages

Chance: 20%
If we're getting another third party character then they are most definitely coming with a stage. Sakurai has made sure to represent different game worlds with as much content as he could. A stage and a list of music seems to be the standard for third parties, and I don't see why that would change after the fighters pass. The only way I imagine we're not getting new stages is if the number of DLC after the fighters pass is very small or/and entirely first party.

Want: 0%
Why would I not want more stages? Stages are another part of Smash that represents game worlds and bring tons of fun into the game. I'd be disappointed if stages are off the table after the fighters pass.

Prediction:
Sol Badguy 24.5%
Frank York Morgan 0.66%

Nomination: Heihachi x25 (I'm using my extra nominations)

 

[3BitSaurus]

No more stages after the Pass
Chance: 25%
Depends on what post Pass will have as its focus, really. If we get promotions, then it's likely they won't come with stages because of how resource-heavy these tend to be. On the other hand, I don't see any way for new franchises from other companies to join without getting stages. Since third parties seem more plausible right now... I'm giving it a 25.

Want: 0%
I'd love for new universes to appear in Smash and that includes stages. Heck, even if it was a promotion - like Isaac, Andy or a RH rep, I'd still want them to come with a stage. Especially if said stages are competitively viable, which is unlikely, but a man can dream.

Predictions
Sol Badguy: 23.7%
Francis York Morgan: 1.2%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5

 

[DanganZilla5]

No More Heroes Stages After Pass

Chance: 20%

I feel there is a big chance for new stages. To be fair, we don't know what post-pass is going to be like, but with the focus on 3rd parties recently, it seems very likely we will be getting new stages. Every new franchise gets a new stage. Period. Every 3rd party DLC character in Smash 4 brought a new stage with them and we currently have at least one stage for every franchise represented by a fighter (Except poor R.O.B). Plus, Sakurai and co. doesn't seem to be concerned with the aesthetics of the stage select screen. We had a "More stages and characters" button for Smash 4 and it seems plausible with this game. We may not get a stage with every character, especially if their respective franchise is in Smash already, but if there is even a few more 3rd party characters, I can't see us not getting any new stages.

Want: 0%

I want more stages. Plain and simple as that. And it would not make sense for them to suddenly stop creating stages for fighters from new series.

Predictions:
Sol Badguy - 10%
Francis York Morgan - 4%

Noms: Monokuma x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

**** if I know

Chance: 50%
It could happen but we're seriously lacking information to determine it. Some people think that third parties = stage and first parties = no stage, but I think that's stupid. Do you really see someone like Isaac or Rex joining Smash without a stage? I don't think so. At this point the only way we'll know whether we get more is if we're told.

Want: 00%
Of course I want more stages, Ultimate sucked at giving us new stages. Obviously if we get new franchises I want to get stages, but damn I'd also like stuff like a Star Allies stage, a Tropical Freeze stage, and even stages for unrepped franchises like ARMS, BoxBoy, and I dunno, old ****. The more the better.

Noms: Atari rep x5
Sol Badguy prediction: 21.70%
Francis York Morgan prediction: 7.42%

• For both your scores and noms to be counted, you must have at least two sentences for both chance AND want.
• Your ratings must show that you have at least put some insight for the character of the day. Don't just say something like "Could happen. Could not." that could be applied to literally any character. Say who or what may be supporting/holding back a character's chances.
• If you choose to abstain on a rating the number of sentences you write doesn't matter. However for your noms to be counted you must at least explain why you are abstaining.

So if one score reaches two sentences but the other one doesn't, I don't count either?

 

[Nemuresu]

No more stages:

Chance: 0%-Unless post-pass characters are the same deal as Corrin and the Plant, I don't ever see this happening. Much less if they're from brand-new franchises.

Want: 0%-I fail to see anything appealing about this idea, and I sincerely don't care that much for stages. It just boils down to: why would I not want more content? Specially stuff that makes these character packs look complete.

Nominations: Heihachi x5

 

[Calamitas]

Want: 100%
Of course I want more stages, Ultimate sucked at giving us new stages. Obviously if we get new franchises I want to get stages, but damn I'd also like stuff like a Star Allies stage, a Tropical Freeze stage, and even stages for unrepped franchises like ARMS, BoxBoy, and I dunno, old ****. The more the better.

Shouldn't that be 0%, then? Right now you're saying that you don't want any stages after the pass.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Remember: today's the last day you can affect the top seven. Check out the new rules as well, they'll be enforced starting right now.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Thrall pre-Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass

Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x135
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x120
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x117
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x110
Glover x110
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x110
Aloy x100

100 - 51

[Rerate] Sora x96
[Rerate] Heihachi x95
Noctis Lucis Caelum x85
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x80
Kunio (River City) x80
[Rerate] Monokuma x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x70
Sackboy x68
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Atari rep x65
King Boo x62
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x60
Akira Howard x58
Reporter & Wrestler x55
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x50
[Rerate] 2B x45
Earthworm Jim x43
Meowth x43
[Rerate] Dante x42
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x35
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x30
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x30
Kazuma Kiryu x25
Vault Boy x25

Under 25

Chun-Li x23
Urbosa x23
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
Echo: 27e (Meta Knight) x20
The Blob (De Blob) x20
Giygas x17
Toxtricity x17
[Rerate] Rayman x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Boss: Ender Dragon x14
Rival Pokémon Trainer x13
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x13
[Rerate] Waluigi x13
[Rerate] Skull Kid x12
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x10
Freddy Fazbear x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Isaac x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

Akira Howard chains over 50 noms together.

Today's new challenger is an Echo of Meta Knight, with 20 noms.

Shouldn't that be 0%, then? Right now you're saying that you don't want any stages after the pass.

Oh ****

 

[Perkilator]

Remember: today's the last day you can affect the top seven. Check out the new rules as well, they'll be enforced starting right now.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Thrall pre-Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass

Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x135
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x120
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x117
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x110
Glover x110
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x110
Aloy x100

100 - 51

[Rerate] Sora x96
[Rerate] Heihachi x95
Noctis Lucis Caelum x85
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x80
Kunio (River City) x80
[Rerate] Monokuma x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x70
Sackboy x68
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Atari rep x65
King Boo x62
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x60
Akira Howard x58
Reporter & Wrestler x55
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x50
[Rerate] 2B x45
Earthworm Jim x43
Meowth x43
[Rerate] Dante x42
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x35
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x30
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x30
Kazuma Kiryu x25
Vault Boy x25

Under 25

Chun-Li x23
Urbosa x23
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
Echo: 27e (Meta Knight) x20
The Blob (De Blob) x20
Giygas x17
Toxtricity x17
[Rerate] Rayman x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Boss: Ender Dragon x14
Rival Pokémon Trainer x13
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x13
[Rerate] Waluigi x13
[Rerate] Skull Kid x12
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x10
Freddy Fazbear x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Isaac x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

Akira Howard chains over 50 noms together.

Today's new challenger is an Echo of Meta Knight, with 20 noms.


Oh ****

Didn't I nominate Claude a couple times during the previous two days?

 

[Deleted member]

No More Stages After the Pass

Chance: 0.01%

I'm guessing this day was meant for the current Fighter Pass, and from what I see, I find it impossible to see no new stages after FP5 unless we get a scenario where there's more DLC being added to the current Fighter Pass after FP5 and we don't get a 2nd Fighter Pass. Every 3rd Party character has at least 1 stage in Smash, so for them to just cut costs by only adding the character and nothing else does a disservice to the franchise,Smash, and its DLC altogether. I don't even think 1st Parties would be DLC without a stage either considering the Fighter Pass has set the standard for Ultimate's DLC with a fighter, a stage, and music advertised, so for Sakurai to add, say, Goombella as DLC in the next Fighter Pass, he'd need to add a stage with her as well.

Want: 0%

Why would I not want more stages in Ultimate? Whether if it's a good or bad stage, It's more content for me to look at and go through, which means more fun shenanigans to be have. It's as straightforward as that, so of course I'd love to see more stages in Smash.
-----------------
Predictions:
Sol - 22%
York - 1.33%
-----------------
Noms:
Devolver Digitial Rep x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Chance: 30%

I could really see this going either way, it really depends on the type of characters we get after the pass. If we get anymore characters from unrepresented franchises we definitely are going to get a stage alongside it.

Want: 0%

Why would I ever want less content? I do think Ultimate could use new stages due to its relative lack of them compared to the other Smash games.

Nominations: Chun-Li x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Stages:
Chance: 50%
It's really hard to say because we don't know how many more characters we're getting. If it's like 20, hell yeah we are. If it's only 3 or 4, probably not.

Want: 50%
It really depends what the DLC we get is. For example, with Akira Howard, the Astral Plane would be really cool and I would like that. At the same time, I have no interest in seeing another Kirby's dreamland or Yoshi's Island. As long as the stage doesn't absolutely blow (75m) then it won't effect me to much though

Predictions
Sol Badguy 20%
FYM 2%


Noms: Akira Howard x5

 

[BowserKing]

No new stages after fighter's pass

Chance: 0%, I think. Given that we are going to get more fighters after the fighter's pass, more stages would be need to fit certain characters. Plus there is lots of opportunities for new stages and possible returning ones, so I say no stages after fighter's pass is unlikely.

Want: a Extremely Rare 0%. I honestly want stages after the fighter's pass, and I'm sorry, but 100% do not support having No new stages after it. Anyways, amoung the stages I want includes Bowser's Castle, Gangplank Galleon, Alolan Tour, Studiopolis Zone and a Minecraft Stage, just to name a few. Overall, I think there should be stages after the fighter's pass.

Prediction: Sol Bad Guy (10%) and Frank Morgan (15%)

Noms: 2 for King Boo and 3 for Rival Pokémon Trainer

 

[Jomosensual]

No More Stages

Chance 25 - I think there's a chance this could happen since we dont know anything about the new DLC fighters other than that its going to happen. Based on my own personal guess of Smash DLC going another year i feel like the chances we're getting more stages are pretty high. Would feel very weird if we get new unrepped series with no stage.

Want 0 - I want more stages. Other than the character itself I look forward to the stages the most when we get someone new, and sometimes they're totally awesome like the KOF stage, which is one of my favorites to play on. In 99% of the cases I can think of it would suck if we got a new character in the game and they didn't get a stage.

Predict
Sol Badguy - 10.25%
Francis - 8.59 %

Noms
Vault Boy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Didn't I nominate Claude a couple times during the previous two days?

That guy who totally got in before , we swear

Chance: 35%
Given how popular Minecraft is, I wouldn't be surprised if we at least got a Steve Mii costume somehow.

Want:

Thrall: 10%

Noms: Claude von Rerate x5

This is, depending on whether I should consider want a 0% or an abstention, a single sentence for either 1 or 2 scores, it should be 2 sentences per score.

I can't come up with a clever title. I've been sick with a stuffy nose.

Chance: 10%
For all we know, Sakurai is understandably refuse Blizzard's offer for any of their characters.

Want: 0.0000000001%
By understandably, I mean Sakurai wouldn't support a company that supports police brutality (even Konami isn't that insane).

No more stages after the pass: 25%

Noms: Claude von Rerate x5

This is two sentences for two scores, it should be at least 4 sentences.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Less content (who keeps nomming this?)
Chance: 1%
This concept is only possible in two scenarios. Either every DLC character is from an already represented series or Sakurai decides to exclude them solely for his own well-being. Recalling interviews, he seems to want to introduce as many possible ''new worlds'' to Smash, which would likely include stages so I don't see Sakurai taking the easy way out with that one.

Want: 0%
Please no. A character from a new series joining but without a stage/music coming along with them would make their inclusion just feel incomplete. Imagine if we were to get the Chorus kids but without a colorfull RH stage accompanying them, that would suck most of the hype out of them. I know Sakurai is better than that.

Sol: 17.27%
York: 3.06%
Meta Knight echo x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

No New Stages Post-Fighters Pass:

Chance: 15% - I guess we can't rule it out completely, there could be further budget constraints, or maybe the team might simply be smaller for this wave of DLC, so it's not impossible. However, I think it'll be more of a case that some fighters might not have stages and others will, like if we get a newcomer from a veteran series I doubt we'll get a new stage, but if we get a newcomer from a new series to Smash it'll get a stage, kinda like how Smash 4's DLC did it.

Want: 0% - Obviously I want as many stages as possible, but more importantly no new stages for new series would mean no new music either, and that's one of the highlights for me with every new series that's put into Smash. I find that music is such a good gateway into actually playing the games that the character comes from, at least that's how I've initially become interested in a lot of the series in Smash that I was previously unfamiliar with.

 

[NintenRob]

Its finally here

Now first of all, the reason I nominated it.

In the game files, I think it's common knowledge that the character select screen was future proofed. It's got room for a total of 16 characters. They clearly planned for a lot characters

But with stages it's just the five for the pass. You try and hack more in, It glitches, they did nothing to future proof. Of course they could patch it. But you have to wonder what they'll do to make room, do they make a new tab again to put all the dlc stages there, including the ones we have already. Or do they they add a new row or column. It's currently 10x11, making it 10x12 would accommodate for an extra 10 stages, but it's also already very cramped and it makes me wonder why it doesn't do it already.

But of course if we don't get more stages, what does that imply? Does that mean we'd only get characters from represented franchises? Are we gonna get characters with stages like melee Fire Emblem, 64 Ness and Falcon, and of course R.O.B. We've never had third parties without stages before.

For chance, I'm going 65%
The lack of future proofing done with stages compared to characters is just suspect.

For want, 15%
I'll admit, the idea of first parties and characters from represented franchises appeals to me. But obviously more stages to play on is great.

Nominate King Boo x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

No More Stages

Chance: 40%
Stages coming with DLC characters is absolutely necessary if they're from a new franchise. Sakurai really doesn't want to have any series un-repped on the stage side of things in this game, judging by how he's been doing it thus far. So getting no more stages? It would only happen if the rest of DLC was from series that are already represented- which I think has a decent shot of being true. If you ask me, we're kinda running out of iconic 3rd party franchises that deserve a spot in Smash, however unpopular of an opinion that is. The rest of DLC being first party, with maybe a few exceptions like Geno or a Sonic character (who could get, but wouldn't need a stage) would mean there's no need for extra stages- Other than maybe a Rhythm Heaven character, but RH music plays on "general Nintendo stages" like pictochat and such, and R.O.B. still doesn't have a home-stage either, so someone like Karate Joe getting in without a stage wouldn't be too much of a weird thing.

(Ideally they'd put in Karate Joe and make a 3rd form of the boxing ring for him or something Technically not a new stage.)

Want: 90%
Considering how little I care about stages that aren't fair or fun to play on, and how none of the DLC stages thus far have been tourney legal except the DQ one, (which is debateable because of its size) I could not care less about more stages. Stages, to me, are the least exciting part of a new character. I'll play on it with hazards on once or twice just to see it, and then take it off my rules list for the rest of time, only to see it as a form of BF or FD. The extra variation in backgrounds is... eh? It doesn't matter to me at all. And considering how strongly a lack of DLC stages would imply more first party characters (my most wanted are pretty much entirely first party) it would be a win-win for me if they spent the dev time on literally anything else.

Like echoes.

Sol Prediction: 8%
York Prediction: I'm predicting there's gonna be a ton of abstain votes. And also like 3%.

Zeraora (41e) x5

 

[Extremmefan]

The death of DLC stages after the initial FP...?

Chance: Abstain.
Too many unknown factors when it comes to the post-Pass DLC. Any chance rating I would give wouldn't be accurate, I'd feel.

Want: 50%
I love me some first parties (and additional reps to already-represented third-parties) tbh, as much as they're not as big of money makers as (brand new) third-parties are. If it indicates something like an Echo Pass I'd be down to sacrifice stages and even spirits (and maybe even music). However they still bring a good amount of fun in both the new stage mechanics/aesthetics and the new music lists, so I'm kinda torn, as much as I can understand them being as if not more hellish to program in than characters most of the time so saving up on these ressources may actually help.

Predictions:
Sol: Abstain
York: Abstain (due to lack of knowledge and interest)

No nomination.

 

[ProfPeanut]

No More Stages

Chance: 18%
This is only happening if the rest of the DLCs are first-party reps. The stage list not being future-proofed certainly does seem a little suspect...or, they could just do what they did in Smash 4 and put an additional menu. Inelegant, perhaps, but hardly a dealbreaker.

Want: 1%
I don't want to outright demand that every further DLC must come with a stage, but obviously this would only happen if we weren't getting any new franchises. A new franchise would necessitate a stage to bring their world into the Smash multiverse, and why would anyone want to keep newcomers out just because they didn't want to put in the work for more stages?


Nominations
de Blob x5

 

[NintenRob]

I know there's a lot of factors to consider, but that's part of the reason I nominated. I think the main thing I'd like to see addressed is the stage select screen and what people think they will do if they do decide to keep adding stages. And opinions on why it's not future proofed already

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't feel too comfortable about rating something like this. We don't know what post-pass will be like, and as NintenRob noted, they may not have future-proofed it. It would make sense to add more stages, but this is Smash we're talking about: not every decision makes sense.

Nominations: Glover x5

 

[Sid-cada]

No More Stages Post-Pass

Chance - 5% - While not necessary for a character from a new franchise to not receive a stage (ROB says hi), it's become expected. They could also try to limit character to those already present, but that doesn't seem like something Sakurai would do.
I'm fairly certain that they can future-proof the stages as much as they want, as they can do it whenever; Sakurai has expressed hesitation before on overcommitting to DLC, and it would not surprise me if he did not plan that far ahead. They can always add a button like they did last game.
Overall, though, I'd say it's fairly likely we will at least see one more stage afterwards.

Want - 40% - I don't have strong feelings about stages overall. If they are comfortable releasing a character without a stage, I won't really care. The fact that it might affect character choices, though, makes me dock a few points.


Nominations

Kunio X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm back

Spoiler: Calcs

Steve
33.94% Chance, 41.17% Want
First time we rated him he got 55.69% Chance and 23.89% Want (this was pre-release but shortly after Nov 1st, so the mood was pretty pessimistic at that point and Vergeben was at his highest credibility). Last time we rated him he got 3.04% Chance and 38.17% Want, but that was right after Banjo's announcement and with no post-Pass DLC in sight. The current consensus seems to be more neutral on his chances, with want being wildly divisive.
Winners of predictions were DanganZilla5 and @ShotoStar: Endgame by virtue of being the highest prediction, both with a precise 35.00%

Thrall
6.38% Chance, 39.29% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 6.45%

The people with extra noms (now with 5% more me)

Artix 15
Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 10
GoodGrief741 5
Ridrool64 5
@ShotoStar: Endgame 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
Ultomato 5
waddledeeonredyoshi 5
Wunderwaft 20

I know there's a lot of factors to consider, but that's part of the reason I nominated. I think the main thing I'd like to see addressed is the stage select screen and what people think they will do if they do decide to keep adding stages. And opinions on why it's not future proofed already

I do think it's interesting that stages weren't taken into consideration whereas characters were, but it would just mean a bit of extra work to make it happen, nothing major.

 

[3DSNinja]

chance:0%:
Honstly, it isn't happening. If we are getting more big third parties after the FP, then why would they NOT get stages? As well, there is a sixth slot for a stage after the FP.
Want:0%: and why would you want this to happen? I want more stages. HEll, I want Pokefloats and Rainbow Road bacjk. Give me more stages.
Nominations: Shadow x5

 

[Deleted member]

Stages? You mean Stage Builder?

Chance: 50%
Honestly as others said at this point in time it's quite hard to rate this? This may seem hypocritical due to me being one of the few who pushed for the "First-Parties after the pass" concept but we know nothing about post-pass DLC and we probably won't till January at the earliest. I can't really say anything on this but I can't really deny the possibility of this either so it's a 50/50 right now.

Want: 5%
Yeah I don't really want this and the only reason I put even a 5% there is for the implication that we would get some first party characters (cough Rex please cough) but it would objectively be for the worse and I'd prefer for there to be a mix of both scenarios if anything. It'd be kind of a shame really so I don't want it even with the implication.

Nomination: Reimu Hakurei x10

 

[Sari]

Earlier today, I said if you abstain you need to explain why you are doing so. After talking with the team about it I thought this was a bit too much so you are free to abstain however you were doing it before.

----------

Concept: No post pass stages

Chance: 40%
The stage select screen seems to only have room for a few more stages so a part of me thinks we may not get that many more stages. It might be silly to base additional content based on that, but the last time I rejected a similar observation (box theory) it turned out to be true. Even if we don't get as many stages as the fighter pass however, I still think we are bound to get at least one extra stage.

Want: 0%
Ultimate's lineup of new stages weren't the best so more is always welcome. Newer Nintendo games like Xenoblade 2 and Three Houses have so much potential for awesome stages. Not to mention new stages are pretty much guaranteed new songs.

Sol Badguy chance prediction: 18.95%
Francis chance prediction: 2.89%

Nominations:
2B x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Only one location left.

Chance: Consider the score 50%, but... it heavily depends on the scope of how many new fighters we’re getting.

Only a few more, like around 4, and it’s almost guaranteed. As many as 10, or even 25? No way. I feel like that the number of Fighters left is inversely proportional to the likelihood that we’re left with one stage.

I’m referring to numbered Fighters only, of course. Echoes could muddy up this total, skewing it slightly in the favor of no. But considering an Echo would probably be about as much work when you factor in differentiating traits, associated content like Classic Mode, and we’ve yet to get any in DLC...

Want: Thinly veiled “first parties (and repped third parties) only after pass” day. I literally want only one first party (in a significant matter). Even excepting my own greed, there’s so much potential from third parties, and considering the roster as a whole is still mostly Nintendo, I’d take a non-Nintendo character I’m unfamiliar with over a Nintendo character. Beyond that, I don’t want to lose out on more music. 0%.

Sunflower x 5. Abstaining on both predictions.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

GoodGrief741 I'm not complaining but haven't I already used all my extra noms? Not sure where those extra five came from.

 

[DaUsername]

The exact opposite of that concept I nommed a while back
Chance: 25%
The thing that worries me about this is the fact that we haven't gotten any standalone stage DLC yet, which makes me wonder if we'll get any at all. However, there's still a good chance we'll get a fighter from a new franchise after the pass, which usually means a new stage.
Want: 0%
Ultimate already has a really good lineup of stages, but as everyone else has said, the more the merrier.
Also we still don't have Poké Floats.

Sol prediction: 10%
Other guy prediction: 5%
Noms: Phoenix Wright x5

 

[Wunderwaft]

GoodGrief741 I'm missing an extra five nomination, I think you might have missed this:

Here are the chance percent calcs from Riesz/Frogger's day to Protector's day:

Spoiler: Chance scores

Riesz (Trials of Mana)
1.5% Chance, 39.75% Want (Keep in mind almost everyone abstained on the want scores for this day)
Winner of chance predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 1.67%

Frogger (Frogger)
12.5% Chance, 43.33% Want
Winner of chance predictions was Wunderwaft with 11.78%

Quote (Cave Story)
15.36% Chance, 63.83% Want
Winner of chance predictions was a three way tie between DanganZilla5 , warpenguin55 , and DaUsername who all guessed 15.00%

Concept: Grass type starter Pokémon
10.22% Chance, 39.97% Want
Winner of chance predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 10.31%

Protector (Etrian Odyssey)
0.66% Chance, 3.33% Want
Winner of chance predictions was Ridrool64 with 0.42%

To all of the winners you each get an extra x5 noms (or x10 in the case of DrifloonEmpire).