Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TheCJBrine]

Terraria, but 3D and focused on construction

Chance: 10%
I don't see it happening, even with the announcement of extra DLC. The best Steve is going to get is a Mii Costume. Otherwise, Microsoft has far more famous franchises out there, such as Halo's Master Chief. Even amongst Minecraft, Steve isn't the most iconic 'character' (that's the Creeper)- he's just an avatar- and while we do have other characters who are meant to be player stand-ins, each of them have their own distinct personality outside of that, on top of a relatively creative arsenal. Even if Steve were an actual character, it'd be tough to give him a moveset that doesn't tread on the toes of Link, Villager and Isabelle.

-Steve is treated as an actual character; just look at Minecraft's official instagram, even a couple of News posts by the writers on the website treated him and Alex as such, and the Minecon 2011 trailer as well + he's crossed over with other games.
-Their official trailers for updates and stuff have personality while keeping the same, blocky look, so they can very well do the same thing with Steve.
-He has plenty of stuff to make him different from Link and others.
-Alongside the Creeper, he and Alex are the faces of the game/franchise as a whole.
-"much more famous"...as if Minecraft isn't a cultural giant with millions of players every month.
-Minecraft ain't meant to be like Terraria at all. Minecraft came before it, and they are very different anyway.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. It would make sense to add Steve (or Minecraft in general), but I honestly don't know the full extent of its popularity. For example, what does Japan think of Minecraft? It's a little hard for me to predict.

Nominations: Glover x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Abstain. It would make sense to add Steve (or Minecraft in general), but I honestly don't know the full extent of its popularity. For example, what does Japan think of Minecraft? It's a little hard for me to predict.

Nominations: Glover x5

Japan loves Minecraft.

 

[SKX31]

Japan loves Minecraft.

As does China.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Minecraft China on the Minecraft Wiki.

The Steve's Box (Steve):

Chance: 45 %

Hoo boy, Minecraft. Runaway success. Popular culture icon in loads of places. And incredible staying power. Washington Post recently called it the "Ultimate blank canvas" in their ten most influential games of the 2010s article (here). Sakurai? Has praised the game. It's been maintained pretty damn well overall - otherwise it wouldn't still be a focal point today, nearly ten years after the full release. Minecraft also is one of those rare games that hit a major sweet spot: It's popular and influential in both established areas for Nintendo (JP / Americas / EU) and regions Nintendo's looking to expand into (China etc.).

Steves' positives deserve a lot of thought. Moveset wise, being a relative blank slate helps him a lot. Since he has loads of potential tools and weapons. As well as flexibility in how he's designed. There's also loads of room for unique gimmicks and mechanics - whatever would suit Smash best.

That's not to say there aren't obstacles in that path. If the Minecraft in Smash rumors had any inklings of truth in them; chances are there would be questions as to how much and what is feasible to put in. Also, a bit more effort might be needed to make the content stand out compared to Super Mario Maker's stage. However, those are not dealbreakers in my eyes.

Want: 75 %

I support Steve on his own merits - the moveset alone is worth a lot. Not to mention, personally his design would stand out compared to the rest of the Smash cast. (Edit: Damn, noticed this just now. Lol)


Noms: King Boo x5
Predictions: Thrall 12,4 %

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Steve, Master Craftsman

Chance: 50% - Where do we start? Minecraft is one of the most influential games of the decade! Extremely high sales, cultural significance, popular both in the west and in Japan, Minecraft is a major juggernaut that Sakurai himself has praised, so it is bound to come to Smash at some point. Furthermore Nintendo adores Minecraft. It is given heavy promotion on a regular basis, recently introduced crossplay, and even has the recency appeal through its' continuous updates. It is a major benefit for both Nintendo and Sakurai, and while I don't see Microsoft double-dipping in the fighter's pass, post-pass DLC is looking bright! And with Banjo now in the game, Steve's only competition is Master Chief. Steve's got so much going for him and I'd be surprised if he WASN'T added!

Want: 90% - I originally wasn't too interested, but a close friend got me to play the game earlier this year, and I hadn't realized how fun it was! I've enjoyed every minute of this very expansive game, and with so much material to pull from I think it'd be the perfect addition to the world of Smash!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Thrall - 14.55%

 

[DaUsername]

The thing that Vergeben was wrong about
Chance: N/A
Want: 0%
Minecraft is a good game and all. But that doesn't mean it should be in Smash Bros. Steve isn't that interesting are a character and most of the music is just pianos. There are other MS franchises that would be better inclusions even if said franchises aren't as successful as Minecraft.

Thrall prediction: 10%
Noms: Phoenix Wright x5

He

HAS NO STYLE
HE HAS NO GRACE

 

[Calamitas]

LEGO: The Video Game

Chance: 20%
Well, Minecraft certainly has the popularity down, there's no denying that. Absurd sales, quite a bit of history, is popular in Japan as well. . . based on that alone, it's not looking too bad. But on the other hand, we already got Banjo and Kazooie in the Fighter Pass, which leaves me rather doubtful as to whether we're actually gonna see another Microsoft character anytime soon. Beyond that, there's of course also the question if Minecraft wouldn't be better represented as just a stage.

Want: 10%
It wouldn't be too terribly bad. But honestly? Not every video game that sold well needs to be in Smash. I really couldn't care less if Steve were to make it in.

Predicting Thrall to get around 12.33%

Nominating Concept: Any Xenoblade Character x5
(Still don't know what to nominate next, soo. . .)

 

[Deleted member]

Super Mine Bros Ultimate [a Minecraft Parody]

Chance: 20%

Minecraft is a cultural phenomenon; there's no doubt about that. It's 1 of, if not, the highest grossing games of all time and still to this day have an extremely active community. For such a blank slate avatar, Steve himself is also an incredibly marketable character given he's essentially Mojang's poster boy and has a lot of merch involving Steve like toys. Regardless of Banjo-Kazooie being in Smash, it's certainly possible for there to be another Microsoft character coming after the Fighter Pass. The only question we should be asking ourselves is if Steve is a character Sakurai thinks he could make him fit with Smash. As it stands, I don't think Sakurai could make it work currently since Minecraft's core gameplay isn't visually striking like every other character in the Fighter Pass, and the game itself doesn't really have the kind of movement that would suit Smash either. Though this is completely anecdotal, we could also look at that statement from Sakurai about a character being fun to play as is more important than just being recognizable and assume Steve would be seen as a character who doesn't look fun to play as in Sakurai's eyes.

However, there is a game coming out in a couple of months that could prove Steve could possibly fit with Smash: Minecraft Dungeons. While I don't know if Steve is actually playable in the game itself and don't recall there being a case where Sakurai based a character off of spinoffs rather than their own original games, a game like Minecraft Dungeons could be the biggest influence to Steve's inclusion as a fighter as the combat is more dynamic than OG Minecraft's. Granted, the game is set to release sometime in April 2020, and we don't know how long Nintendo and Sakurai will keep on making DLC for Ultimate, but if we were looking into Ultimate's DLC expanding to 2021, that would probably be enough time to include Steve as a fighter.

Want: 5%

Steve has been the most jarring 3rd party character to talk about when it comes to Smash, and quite frankly, he doesn't click with me. He's got a design that doesn't interest me, isn't a character that I'll ever play frequently since his playstyle won't be for me, and comes from a game that's so big Smash would need him in Smash rather than Minecraft needing Smash to get more exposure. It also doesn't help that Steve and Minecraft are memed so hard around Smash that it makes me even more uninterested in seeing him in Smash.

That said, I don't think everything Minecraft related is bad for Smash. There are some franchises where I see fitting in Smash better as other things than a Fighter like Dark Souls with a Boss or Hotline Miami with a Jacket Mii Costume and Smash remixes; Minecraft currently happens to be 1 of those franchises. Steve being a mii costume doesn't feel right considering how vastly different his design is compared to every other costume. Much like Rathalos is in Smash rather than a Monster Hunter, a Minecraft stage would be a much more fitting spot than Steve as a fighter since the world is the most important aspect of Minecraft. I'll also say a Creeper Hat would work with Miis since it's the most iconic head of Minecraft and doesn't need a full on Mii Costume. That's pretty much all I have to say about Steve and Minecraft.
--------------------
Predictions:
Thrall - 8.34%
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Noms:
Devolver Digital Rep x5 (idk if Devolver actually owns the games they publish or not but I don't want to pass over talking about a Devolver rep when the time comes)

 

[GoodGrief741]

It's 1 of, if not, the highest grossing games of all time and still to this day have an extremely active community.

Sorry to be a stickler, but I think the more appropriate term is highest selling, as while Minecraft is the game that has sold the most copies, we don't have much info about dollar grosses, and given it doesn't have much in the way of monetization schemes, it's likely that it's not near the top.

 

[Ridrool64]

I just realized how fitting it is that Steve is day 360.

 

[Sid-cada]

Steve?

Chance - 10% - I guess Minecraft is still on the table. That said, I think the disparity between smash and minecraft is simply too big. I think this goes into crowd pleaser vs. influence, which I think they are leaning into crowd pleaser.

Want - 20% - Terraforming is an awful idea that should not exist in Smash bros. I do not want to have my character in an infinite just because someone built a wall.


Nominations

Kunio X5

 

[Wunderwaft]

Steve

Chance: 65%
Minecraft doesn't need any introduction. It's the best selling video game of all time. It has appeared on Nintendo consoles. It's popular worldwide. It has defined an entire generation of gaming and has influenced this industry heavily. And to top it all off, Microsoft is already collaborating with Nintendo in Smash, which makes Minecraft a real possibility in post-pass DLC. This game has received praise by Sakurai and other notable Nintendo developers like Miyamoto. With how much Nintendo pushed the game in advertisement and it's crossover potential it's obvious that this was the game that bridged the gap between Microsoft and Nintendo.

With that said, we don't know how post-pass is being handled and how many characters we're getting. There's also the very big elephant called Master Chief that could very well get in over Steve. Regardless, I'm still optimistic on Steve's chances as he does have a good chance of getting in. I've tried to think of any negatives towards Steve's chances and all I could find was "competition" which applies to every other candidate as well. I don't think there's much to worry about unless Sakurai decides to pull a Resident Evil again and put Steve as a mii costume or a spirit.

If Smash Bros claims it is the biggest gaming crossover then not putting the best selling video game of all time in it would be a disservice to that claim, especially since practically nothing is hindering Steve or Minecraft content in general.


Want: 100%
Minecraft is a game that withstood the test of time and changed gaming as a whole. I love the game itself and the change it brought to the industry. Look at how many Western Indie games we got after Minecraft's immense success. If not for Minecraft I doubt we would've had the rising indie momentum we had during this decade. I appreciate the impact of this game very much and I also appreciate the game itself for the amount of fun I had back when it initially came out.

As for Smash I'm excited in imagining the possible moveset that could be made for Steve if he gets in Smash. How would they incorporate block placements, crafting, enchantment, and item management? The possibilities are endless when it comes to Steve and I would like to see what kind of crazy stuff that Sakurai does to the character.


Nomination: Heihachi x5
Prediction: Thrall 14.2%

 

[Pinguino21v]

Steve

Chance: 80 %

I already mentionned a few times how likely I think Steve is as 5th FP.

• Sakurai bias (he stated he likes Minecraft),
• Small inside Smash fanbase but big outside, and everywhere in the world (to close the FP, it's logical, since Smash fans already bought the FP for the most, and it can bring new players to buy the base game),
• Microsoft, a western company, has already been in for negociations thus a good opportunity to continue with them,
• previous "leaks" during the base game about Minecraft content that never got hardly disconfirmed

Want: 80 %

It's one of the few third party that are regularly discussed that I like. I went into Minecraft durning the beta, and I like to come back to it times to times. Steve in itself has so much potential for his moveset, and original gimmicks.

Thrall

Prediction: 8 %

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Thrall from World of Warcraft.

Predict Concept: No More Stages Beyond Current Fighter Pass.

I will try to end the day around noon EST tomorrow, though I will be having a party at my house so don't be surprised if a delay happens.

Megadoomer

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Some songs to get into the Thrall/WoW mood:

Spoiler: WoW Music

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Here are the chance percent calcs from Riesz/Frogger's day to Protector's day:

Spoiler: Chance scores

Riesz (Trials of Mana)
1.5% Chance, 39.75% Want (Keep in mind almost everyone abstained on the want scores for this day)
Winner of chance predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 1.67%

Frogger (Frogger)
12.5% Chance, 43.33% Want
Winner of chance predictions was Wunderwaft with 11.78%

Quote (Cave Story)
15.36% Chance, 63.83% Want
Winner of chance predictions was a three way tie between DanganZilla5 , warpenguin55 , and DaUsername who all guessed 15.00%

Concept: Grass type starter Pokémon
10.22% Chance, 39.97% Want
Winner of chance predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 10.31%

Protector (Etrian Odyssey)
0.66% Chance, 3.33% Want
Winner of chance predictions was Ridrool64 with 0.42%

To all of the winners you each get an extra x5 noms (or x10 in the case of DrifloonEmpire).

 

[GoodGrief741]

Another character that perfectly illustrates the hard divide between console and PC gaming history

So, alright, question to the thread. How many of you know this character? Of those of you who do, how many know him through playing the Warcraft games?

And there's my point. Maybe for the PC audience Thrall is the face of Warcraft, an icon of icons, but over in the console space I think most people wouldn't know who he is - maybe aside from "that Warcraft orc used in marketing". Plus, Western character from a Western dev with far likelier characters (Crash, Spyro, Tracer), that has never been on a Nintendo console, and I don't know how Japan feels about Warcraft.

Chance: 0%

As for want, I mean, I want icons, and I certainly don't feel like Thrally here is one. Plus it's hard to want something you have no attachment to. But Warcraft is a big deal, so you wouldn't see me complaining.

Want: 10%

Noms: Atari rep x5
No more stages prediction: 33.61%

 

[Wunderwaft]

Thrall

Chance: 10%
Thrall is a major character in the Warcraft series. He's a fairly popular character but he is not the main character, none of the Warcraft characters are. Because of the nature of WoW being an MMO, there is no singular playable character due to avatar creation. So with that the best candidates are NPCs. Now Thrall does have a legacy point since he has been involved since Warcraft 3 and has been important to the plot of the series ever since, but so have many other characters so this point isn't exclusive to him.

The problem is that Thrall is one of many important characters in the series and he isn't the series mascot or anything like that. He's not the most popular character but he represents a faction in Warcraft, the Horde. The problem with this is that representing only the Horde would be ignoring the other half of Warcraft's community, the Alliance. Because of this I believe Thrall has a disadvantage against Arthas and Illidan, two characters that are far more popular than him and are not biased towards the two major factions.

The most notable and recognizable character in the Warcraft series outside of the core Warcraft player base is not Thrall, but it is Arthas the Lich King.

I'm sure even those who aren't avid PC gamers have known about the Wrath of the Lich King expansion and how big it was when it came out. It was the expansion pack where WoW had the highest number of subscribers and players, Warcraft was at it's peak during that period. The character is so big that Blizzard decided to use him as the only Warcraft character in the HotS reveal trailer.

The existence of Arthas is a huge detriment towards Thrall and pretty much any other Warcraft character as it is hard to find another Warcraft character that is as popular and as mainstream as the Lich King.


Want: 40%
I'm fine with Thrall, there are certainly worse choices *cough* Sylvanas *cough*. But I never was a big fan of Thrall and I always liked Arthas and Illidan more.


Prediction: No more stages 17.3%
Nomination: Heihachi x5

 

[SKX31]

Of those of you who do, how many know him through playing the Warcraft games?

*Raises hand. Really high.*

It kinda feels fitting that I wound up joining this place when Arthas was rated, and now was probably the main guy nom'ing Thrall in the first place. Yes, WarCraft 3 released during 2002, when I was approaching 12. And its expansion - Frozen Throne - a year later. Thrall doesn't have an outsized presence in TFT nor WoW really. Writing has never really been Blizzard's strong suit; but characters like Arthas and Thrall have stood out. Yes, there are really, really bad characters in WoW and other Blizzard games, but those are not being rated.

That said:

Lok'Tar Ogar! - Victory or Death! (Thrall):

Chance: 10 %

Wunderwaft has a very strong point: Thrall's not exactly the main character - although he is up there in terms of importance. He's not been in the limelight recently - although I haven't followed WoW that much since WotLK. And he might be a bit too associated not only with the Horde, but also with the original WarCraft 3 (where he played a major role; he and his allies freed the Orcs from Demon-infused blood magic, slaying the Demon responsible in the process. He also lead the Orc migration and founded their capital Orgrimmar). That's not considering the fact that Blizzard has a potentially deep bench of characters, as well as its sister Activision.

However, he has positives. Arthas would be the first Death Kinght / Lich if he joins Smash, Thrall would not only be the first Orc (going back to this soon enough) but also the first Shaman. And the tools are there: Thrall's main weapon is the electricity-infused Doomhammer. And it's not like he just whacks it around - he also uses it for magical purposes. Lightning spells (mainly Chain Lightning), siccing Spirit Wolves to harass foes and earth-based magic, including earthquakes, are his forte. Thrall is also the most notable aversion of the usual Orc: he's neither brutish as a character (although he's not afraid to use raw strength if need be) nor chaotic evil. Which is a major contrast to the Orcs of LotR and 40K amongst others.

Want: 95 %

Oh yes. Blizzard may be far from perfect, but they created and shaped the two most influential RTS series out there. And yes, I have loads of nostalgia for those games' heyday, as well as WarCraft 3's successor WoW. But Thrall's been one of my favorite characters from those games. Not sure why - I think I gravitated towards his basis as soon as WarCraft 3's Prologue. While I'd take any representation of WarCraft with glee, Thrall ranks in my Top 30-35 overall. I have loads of characters that high in pure want score.

"For Doomhammer!"

(Edited for accuracy.)

Predictions: No more he-stages 9 %
Noms: King Boo x5

 

[Pinguino21v]

Thrall

Chance: 20 %

Nowadays, Overwatch is a better face for Blizzard than is Thrall, especially to console gamers. However, Thrall is from Warcraft, giving birth of the biggest MMORPG ever. If Sakurai wants to represent different kind of games and genres, MMORPG is one of them and WoW is one of the best representation.
Also Arthas may be more known, I think Thrall is less dividing thanks to not being a swordwielder, and having nature magic to his will.

Want: 80 %

I was really fond of the Warcraft lore when I was playing WoW. Thrall is definitively one of the most important character. I strongly believe Thrall has more chance than Arthas or Illidan, because he is more likable, and because he has better potential than both of them for being a hammerwielder and a shaman, thus magic, to the difference of sword wielders. To go even further, honestly, I would like Thrall but dislike Arthas inclusion.

No more stage post pass

Prediction: 10 %

 

[GoodGrief741]

While doing noms I've noticed that someone replied to my post as an edit in an earlier post of theirs. Without saying how I personally feel about it (and I won't reply since it's off-topic), the goal of this thread is to spur debate, so I'd like to encourage more direct and visible types of responses.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Steve pre-Thrall

Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x130
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x115
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x112
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x110
Glover x105
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x105
Aloy x100

100 - 51

[Rerate] Sora x91
[Rerate] Heihachi x90
Noctis Lucis Caelum x85
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Kunio (River City) x75
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x70
[Rerate] Monokuma x70
Sackboy x68
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x60
Concept: Atari rep x60
Reporter & Wrestler x55
Decidueye x53
King Boo x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x50
Akira Howard x48
Earthworm Jim x43
[Rerate] Dante x42
Meowth x41
[Rerate] 2B x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x35
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x30
Kazuma Kiryu x25
Vault Boy x25
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x25

Under 25

Chun-Li x23
Urbosa x21
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
Giygas x17
Toxtricity x17
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x15
Boss: Ender Dragon x14
Rival Pokémon Trainer x13
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x13
[Rerate] Waluigi x13
[Rerate] Skull Kid x11
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
Freddy Fazbear x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Isaac x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

Glover and Shadow the Hedgehog both spin past Aloy, and remain tied in fifth place.

King Boo haunts over 50 noms.

Vault Boy, Echo: Zeraora, and 2B venture out of the under 25 club.

Your new nominees for the day are Alucard, and Devolver Digital rep, with 5 noms each.

 

[3DSNinja]

abstain. I may be a primarily PC gamer, but I never played WoW... I don't think it's fair for me to judge him.
Nominations Shadow x5

 

[Sari]

Thrall

Chance: 0%
World of Warcraft was the game that greatly popularized the MMO genre. It's still pretty popular to this day and is among Blizzard's biggest series. As far as good things for Thrall's chances, that is really all I have. Now for the cons:

• From what I could find online, WoW is not popular at all in Japan and AFAIK there aren't even any official servers there. The closest thing I could find to it being recognized in Japan was this old article where a group of like 40 people set up their own server. Aside from that it seems to be a literal who series in Japan (even within the past two years or so with the rise of PC gaming there) which I think is a death sentence for a character's chances.
• Blizzard has shown more interest in adding characters from their other series into Smash, such as Diablo and Overwatch. Considering how more Nintendo and console friendly those two series are (and Overwatch being way more mainstream nowadays) I think they would have priority over WoW.
• As far as WoW reps go, Arthas seems like a gigantic hurdle.

Want: 0%
I have no connection to WoW at all or any other Blizzard franchises for that matter. I've always been more of a Steam PC user and I'm not a fan of paid subscriptions for single games. Even when looking at the WoW characters I feel like Arthas would be a cooler pick anyway.

EDIT: Also forgot that Blizzard is technically part of Activision, so a WoW rep could possibly kill Crash's chances who is one of my most wanted.

No more stages chance prediction: 23.24%

Nominations:
2B x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

World of Warcraft in Smash? Wow!

Chance: 7%

I honestly don't know a lot about Thrall, but he seems to be a popular character in the fanbase and it helps that the main character is an avatar so they might just go with another character. World of Warcraft is a huge and popular game. To my knowledge, it is the game that popularized the MMO genre. For a game that came out in 2004, it has managed to stay popular and relevant to this day (albeit not as popular as it used to be).

As for it being a PC game, unfortunately Japan doesn't seem to like them to the extent that westerners do. It's possible that Nintendo will want to put a PC rep in Smash to get more interest in it to get more sales from the Switch ports of said PC games. The problem with that is: World of Warcraft has never been on a Nintendo console. And WOW is owned by Activision, who also owns Crash Bandicoot and Overwatch. Crash is much more popular and requested. And Overwatch 2 is coming to the Switch so Nintendo would probably choose an Overwatch character instead, that is if they for some reason don't pick Crash first.

My point is, WOW is low on the priority list and while I can imagine it getting in, it's very slim. Crash would certainly get in first and whether or not we could get two Blizzard characters is a whole nother topic.

Want: 60%

I've only played a little bit of WOW a while ago. I couldn't get into the gameplay, but I did enjoy the world and I could see the moveset and stage potential being awesome. And Thrall seems like a cool character.

Predictions: Concept no more stages beyond pass - 5%

Noms: Monokuma x10 (My first time winning noms!)

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I have never played WoW.

Nominations: Glover x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Thrall:

Chance: 0% - Pretty clearly not happening. If we get an Activision Blizzard character you'd imagine it's Crash, and even if we just get a Blizzard character you'd imagine it's Tracer, and even if we somehow against all odds get a Warcraft character, it'd likely be Arthas. I just don't see why Nintendo or Sakurai would ever be interested in bringing Warcraft to Smash.

Want: 40% - Warcraft is one of the most important video game franchises in my life since I started with Warcraft 3. There's not a single game I've put even close to as many hours into as WoW after I started playing it 14 years ago, and even today I still play WoW Classic on a daily basis and will be buying Warcraft 3: Reforged on launch. With all that said, I wouldn't really be excited to see it in Smash, because I really just don't feel like it fits. The characters don't come off very well at a surface level, their appeal mostly lies with their character depth (or did, back when Blizzard had competent writers), and that's not something Smash can represent very well. In general I just don't see why Thrall or Warcraft's inclusion would be much fun, it'd be bizarre for sure, but once the novelty wears off I feel like he'd just stick out like a sore thumb. It's not even that I have anything against Thrall specifically, I think he'd be a great representative for Warcraft (Arthas would as well, it'd have to be between the two of them imo), the whole idea just doesn't click for me.

I would still prefer him over Tracer or a Starcraft character, just because I'm such a big fan of the franchise, but I feel like the best Blizzard character would be Diablo. Some would argue he fits even less due to how gritty and violent he is, but imo he's at least a very clearly defined character who's appeal can easily be represented through Smash.

 

[Ridrool64]

Ain't this guy just so enthralling?

Chance: 5%. Unfortunately, and I openly admit to just cribbing off of what others say due to my own lack of knowledge, not only is this guy swamped in competition, but even beyond that, I have no idea what he brings to the table. As a result, I really cannot see us getting Thrall.

Want: I will abstain. I think that the WoW fans, ex-fans, and haters would have an interesting dialogue on this. Myself, however, being an outsider couldn't really understand what it'd mean.

Sunflower x 5. No stages post-pass is a stealth first-parties only after the pass topic I can see right through, but considering we simply don't have enough evidence... 15.92% on the dot. Some will go really, really high in chance, others really low. The problem here is that it requires us to figure out just what post-pass is like. If it's turning Ult into the main Switch game to get, Nintendo's killer app for the duration of the Switch lifecycle, then we're getting more. If we've got only a few characters left, then we're not.

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain. I really can't say much about Thrall because I know nothing about WoW.

Prediction: No more stages: 15%

Noms:
Akira Howard x 10

 

[Perkilator]

I can't come up with a clever title. I've been sick with a stuffy nose.

Chance: 10%
For all we know, Sakurai is understandably refuse Blizzard's offer for any of their characters.

Want: 0.0000000001%
By understandably, I mean Sakurai wouldn't support a company that supports police brutality (even Konami isn't that insane).

No more stages after the pass: 25%

Noms: Claude von Rerate x5

 

[Calamitas]

It ain't easy being green. . . stop poking me!

Chance: 5%
Well, chances for a Blizzard character aren't too terribly in and of itself. But Warcraft? Yeah, I'm having my doubts. As others have said, this franchise is pretty much exclusively on PC, and not too particularly popular in Japan. That alone is pretty hefty strike against Thrall - and the fact that he isn't really what I'd consider a consistent protagonist isn't making it much better.

Want: 60%
Yeah, I'd kinda like that. I only ever played Warcraft III, but that at least quite a bit. There are other characters from the series that I'd prefer seeing, like Arthas, Illidans or even Jaina or Maiev. But really, Thrall wouldn't bee too bad.

Predicting no more stages after the pass to get 33.33333%.

Nominating Concept: Any Xenoblade Newcomer x5 for good measure.

I'm fine with Thrall, there are certainly worse choices *cough* Sylvanas *cough*.

Seeing these kinda statements is really wild as someone who has only played WC3.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm going to abstain on Thrall today. I don't have anything to add in time for the 24/7 deadline, but I want to put out my prediction and noms.

Predictions:
No More Heroes Stages Beyond the Pass: 0.01%

Noms:
Devolver Digital Rep x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Thrall

Chance 5 - I remember I gave the last PC game character, Which was a LoL rep, a pretty good score. I am not giving Thrall or WoW a really good score. Letthe compeition look at the Thrall has. WoW is made by Activision/Blizzard, who has characters like Crash, Tracer, and Spyro to compete with. That right there is pretty hard to overcome. Then looking at the competition for PC game reps, League of Legends feels a lot more likely than WoW with the Tencet/Switch in China tie in. WoW is more iconic, but like others have said, maybe not to counsole gamers. In short, tough competiton and no direct in like others in the genere have make this a tough sell for me. Leaving the door a crack open though because WoW is a pretty iconic game

Want 30 - I would be too psyched but I wouldn't be offeneded by the pick either. Would probably react with a "Oh, that's cool I suppose. Could be worse."

Predict No More Stages - 50%. Think we'll be all over the board on this one

Noms:
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x 5

 

[Sid-cada]

Thrall

Chance - 0% - Not even the most iconic character from his own franchise. Add on top that a warcraft character is unlikely and, well...

Want - 20%- No thank you. I don't care, and there are many better characters in my opinion.


Nominations

Kunio X5

 

[NintenRob]

Based on what I've read here, I feel I can give him a double 0.

He's not the main character
He's not the most recognizable
Surely if we get an mmo character it will be league of legends.
Lacks Nintendo notability.
I don't know him so I don't want him

Nominate King Boo x4
Skull Kid x1

Prediction no more stages after the pass 27%

Finally it's here, now this should be a day that sparks a lot of discussion.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Surely if we get an mmo character it will be league of legends.

LoL isn't an MMO.

 

[NintenRob]

LoL isn't an MMO.

It isn't? Maybe I'm mixing my terms.

Warcraft and league are the same genre aren't they?

 

[GoodGrief741]

It isn't? Maybe I'm mixing my terms.

Warcraft and league are the same genre aren't they?

The old Warcraft games are RTSes, World of Warcraft is an MMORPG, League is a MOBA. You might be getting mixed up because MOBAs originated from a Warcraft mod, but they're wildly different genres.

 

[Perkilator]

Soooo....I thought days were done around 6:30pm PST?

 

[NintenRob]

The old Warcraft games are RTSes, World of Warcraft is an MMORPG, League is a MOBA. You might be getting mixed up because MOBAs originated from a Warcraft mod, but they're wildly different genres.

Fair enough, I stand by my score though for other reasons stated.

Still good to know. It's nice to learn things in this thread

 

[Sari]

Soooo....I thought days were done around 6:30pm PST?

Read what I wrote on the post where I started Thrall's day.

 

[Perkilator]

Read what I wrote on the post where I started Thrall's day.

Aaah, okay.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Go'el, Son of Metzen

Chance: 20%
On a whole, Warcraft has tipped over more dominoes in the history of video games than most other franchises can claim. The RTS, the MMO, the MOBA, the CCG - it's all impossible to imagine what whole genres would be like in a universe without Warcraft. Despite being made by a bunch of dudes who largely didn't know what they were doing and just threw in anything they liked, Warcraft's made a cultural impact that continues to go farther than most fantasy worlds can dream of. If you want to represent at least three of the most popular game genres of all time, your trail would lead you through Warcraft.

So why pick Thrall, out of the myriad of Warcraft 3's main cast members? Well, because orcs with more than a single dimension was Warcraft's first core strength, all the way back to when it was a two-faction RTS. And Smash Bros. thrives off of honoring the unique strengths of the many franchises it represents; there's unique sword lords everywhere else you look, after all, but there's much fewer opportunities for noble hammer-slinging element-wielding shaman warchiefs. Giving orcs just as much limelight as the immediately-appealing humans (if not more), despite being the "antagonist" faction, is a decision that Blizzard continues to this day.

Of course, there's plenty of other candidates clamoring that their own uniqueness is worth inclusion. And besides, the real reason behind a Warcraft rep at all would have to start with a desire to represent Blizzard in Smash Bros - a question that many would not respond positively to. Blizzard's never really done anything special for Nintendo, so there's no clear reason why they be picked as the second ever Western company to invite over. Without that desire on Nintendo's part, pretty much any of Azeroth's characters (let alone other Blizzard candidates) would not have a strong chance of making into Smash.

Want: 55%
Thrall got a bad rep at one point, but he's mostly been one of the more respectable and storied characters - and leading a massive faction of "monster" races is no small feat. He's the guy I see representing the best strengths Warcraft has, even if he has some of their weaknesses in him too.


Nominations
de Blob x5