Of those 3 you just mentioned, the only truly successful one is Phoenix Wright. You could chalk that up to different things like it being backed by Capcom, having more gameplay than traditional VN's, etc. Also, im sure he got a decent popularity boost from being in UMvC 3.
And again, it's 1000x easier for a VN made by Capcom to get traction, over a VN made by a couple of dudes (Which is what 99% of VN's are)
Actually I don't think the official sales numbers have ever been released for Stay Night. Care to link a source? Because i've never seen them. All im seeing right now is a baseless assumption.
Also, yeah FSN has never been localized outside of Japan. But it's various adaptations have, not only that IIRC Fire Emblem wasn't localized outside of Japan before Marth and Roy got into Melee.
Im saying the bias is calling it a complete porn game with characters trying to be overly sexy when the most sexually appealing character in Stay Night is Rider, whose design isn't revealing at all. Its more tame than what you'd find in majority of other games. Saying "Fate" isn't popular is either just pure bias or ignorance. I shouldn't need to explain AGAIN as to why that is.
Saying none of its Non-VN games aren't that good is again, an opinion. A lot of people like Extra, CCC, Extella, and Link. Actually, there are people that JUST like the Extraverse and don't care for Stay Night.
There are also A LOT of people who like Strange Fake, Zero, and or Apocrypha. Which started as Light Novels.
Then you have things outside the Fate Worlds, like Melty Blood. Which was so huge that it got fan voted onto Evo Mainstage back in 2010, over Street Fighter 3rd Strike.
But Snatcher and Policenauts are still spoken of, which makes them more successful than most of the eroges that supposedly had to be that way. And Ace Attorney had released 6 games by the time UMvC3 came out, so I have no clue what that means. And Capcom decided to release their game on the GBA, type-moon released along with a magazine specialising in adult games... They knew what audience they were aiming for with this series.
The 400,000 sales comes from
Akihito Shoji and then the sales of the PS2 and Vita versions come out at 206,495 and 144,993 copies respectfully. Obviously that first number is fuzzy, but if it sold at a minimum 400,000 copies, then that is more than 50% of all copies of the game.
You're correct on Marth and Roy, but I what i quoted was about Lucas which happened after and shows that Sakurai has become hesitant to do that as the series has progressed.
Fair enough, it isn't a straight up complete porn game. But as it stands, 2 games in the franchise have (had) 100% more pornography in them than any other franchise currently in Smash.
A lot of people like a lot of things, but if we look at Famitus scores, tiger colosseum got 25/40, unlimited codes got 28/40, extra got 29/40 and Extella got 31/40. Getting progressively better over the course of the series, but hardly setting the world on fire in terms of critical response.
I'm also going to say, I don't think anything outside of the world of video games holds any weight towards a game getting into Smash. This is a video game crossover, and Fate needs to stand by what it has put out into the world of video games.
And I've never said the franchise isn't popular. I do however think it's the wrong kind of fanbase and message if it were to get into Smash. We can all point to fan polls or votes that have been hijacked by one particularly excitable fanbase wanting to prove something. GameFAQs voted Undertale the greatest game of all time in 2015, I don't think anyone would argue that was a genuine display, just a super passionate fanbase wanting to prove something. Look at the list of games that Melty Blood beat;
Street Fighter III: 3rd Strike,
Capcom vs. SNK 2,
Marvel vs. Capcom 2,
Soulcalibur IV, and The King of Fighters XII, I don't even think fans of Melty Blood would argue it's a better game than those, they just thought it was cool that might get to see something they like represented in that way. It speaks volumes that it was never played on the Evo main stage after, butall those other games are mainstays.