Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Bowser's Babysitter

Chance: 9%
Man how things change. With confirmation of more characters, I think as of now we're pretty darn close to everything goes. Kamek is the main villain of the Yoshi series, which still doesn't have a second rep despite being in every rep. Kamek is a relevant character thanks to his continued appearances in the Yoshi and Mario series. Moveset potential and obscurity are not issues. The thing is he's not the kind of character that really sells DLC. Nor is he really one of the Nintendo characters that comes to mind.

Want: 100%
Kamek would be super fun to play, plus he'd bring more villains and more Yoshi representation. He's also just a fun character.

Noms: Prince of Persia x5
Saber prediction: 5.4%

 

[RouffWestie]

Kamek
Chance: 1%
He's not major enough nor popular enough to be in. He's also already got a role as a stage hazard. I doubt anyone at Nintendo would be looking towards him as a DLC choice.

Want: 100%
Would absolutely main day 1 and would be an instant buy. Kamek is great in every game he appears in. He's got potential to be a fun super-stereotypical magic-user and stand out among the others on the roster.

Nomination: Concept: Another western character x5

 

[Deleted member]

Kamek time

Want: 50%
I'm not for or against this character really. They're one of the few possible Yoshi reps, They could have a cool moveset, Their design is unique and stands out and yet I don't really care for Kamek. I don't think they'd be bad by any means but I don't have enough interest in them to root for them they're just kinda there I suppose. So 50%.

Chance: 5%
While after the pass I have more hope and room to think we'll get 1st party characters I don't think they would dig as deep as to put in Kamek as if they do decide to throw in first party characters I'm fairly certain they would be at least one of these two: A) Fan favorite characters (Potentially Isaac, Rex/Pyra Waluigi and Geno if you count Geno as 1st party) B) From a new series (Rhythm Heaven, Golden Sun, Astral Chain, Etc.). Kamek would be neither.

And hey even if we go further and get 1st party characters like Bandanna Dee, Dixie, Edelgard/Three Houses rep, Etc. I still doubt we'll get Kamek anyways. I just can't see it happening as he's not popular or major enough.

Saber: 5%
Nomination: Geno x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Kamek

Chance: 10%

Him being the main antagonist in the Yoshi games is a big plus and it would come down to him or Poochy as the next Yoshi rep. Yoshi is a big Nintendo franchise and and it would make sense to include another character from it. The problem is I don't see Kamek being a big enough character to advertise as dlc. Not to mention there are plenty of other Nintendo characters like Waluigi, Bandana Dee, Toad, and Isaac that have more fan demand, and Sakurai mention he wants to please the fans. Plus, he already appears in a stage. It's possible, but I doubt Kamek will be a playable character. Maybe a Mii Costume at most.

Want: 5%

Admittedly I don't know much about the character but I'm not a Yoshi fan. He could be fun, but there are so many characters I really, really want. And Kamek is not one of them.

Nominations:

Monokuma x4
Another western character x1

 

[Ridrool64]

The EEEEVIL Koopa Wizard

Chance: I'm feeling charitable, so I will let him have a 10% chance. Kamek isn't screwed by first party exclusions anymore, but he still is lacking in a lot of things that makes a good candidate for DLC: he doesn't have much of a new fanbase to bring, if any, he doesn't have very much support in the core fandom so he can't be included for that reason, and for pack 5 specifically I think his spirit does him in. Beyond that, he just doesn't have what it takes to make money compared to most other characters.

Want: 45%. I can see the appeal of having a second Yoshi character, but I'm not a fan of him as DLC. He should be a base game character where he'll be appreciated at worst, I think.

Sunflower will wait. [Rerate] Arle Nadja x 10 if nominations yesterday don't count, but only 5 if they do since I don't have the anymore. Saber... eh, 7% on the dot seems about right.

 

[NintenRob]

While most of the shackles DLC has presented so far I feel has been lifted, it's still DLC.

Kamek
Chance 3%
The only way I see this happening is if they make a point of adding one character from each franchise, which I think there is a small possibility of. But otherwise it's hard to imagine Kamek being DLC
Want: 60%
Which is a shame because I think Kamek would be a really cool character. I always smile when I see him playable in spin-offs, but the poor guy can't even make it into Mario Kart.

That said, as a Mario character, King Boo is my next choice for a villain, as a Yoshi character. I have a lot of Bias for Baby Mario.


Now what to nominate, it feels so long since its been a thing. But I know what I want to do.

Nominate No more stages beyond the pass x5

The other thing I want to nominate is filling in the all 16 dummy slots, but I'll wait for. More stages will is a more pressing question

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'd appreciate more responses on whether you think these recent Mii Costumes are disconfirmations. I've gotten two responses (both negatives) but I'd like to hear some more. However if I don't then it's settled and Proto Man stays.

Spoiler: Nominations post-9/4 Direct Reactions pre-Kamek

Specter Knight x155
Ellie (The Last of Us) x150
Velvet Crowe x140
Gene (God Hand) x125
Adeleine (Kirby) x120
Rundas x115
Ninten x115

150 - 101

Kyo Kusanagi x110
Jin Kazama x110
[Rerate] Micaiah x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Concept: Another western character x105
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
9-Volt x100
Captain Rainbow x97
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Lara Croft x85
Amaterasu x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Kratos x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
Proto Man x75
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x75
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x73
Blaze the Cat x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Papyrus x56
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Prince of Persia x35

Under 25

Concept: Any grass-type starter x20
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x20
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x15
The Blob (De Blob) x15
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x10
Earthworm Jim x7
Chun-Li x5
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Giygas x5
King Boo x5
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x5
Black Shadow x2
Urbosa x2
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x1

Another Western character and Reimu Hakurei fly past 100 noms.

A new era of speculation begins! A with it come the return of Arle Nadja (with a whopping 20 noms), Bandana Dee (with 5), and also Urbosa (2 noms).

 

[NintenRob]

I'd appreciate more responses on whether you think these recent Mii Costumes are disconfirmations. I've gotten two responses (both negatives) but I'd like to hear some more. However if I don't then it's settled and Proto Man stays.

Spoiler: Nominations post-9/4 Direct Reactions pre-Kamek

Specter Knight x155
Ellie (The Last of Us) x150
Velvet Crowe x140
Gene (God Hand) x125
Adeleine (Kirby) x120
Rundas x115
Ninten x115

150 - 101

Kyo Kusanagi x110
Jin Kazama x110
[Rerate] Micaiah x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Concept: Another western character x105
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
9-Volt x100
Captain Rainbow x97
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Lara Croft x85
Amaterasu x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Kratos x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
Proto Man x75
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x75
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x73
Blaze the Cat x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Papyrus x56
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Prince of Persia x35

Under 25

Concept: Any grass-type starter x20
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x20
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x15
The Blob (De Blob) x15
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x10
Earthworm Jim x7
Chun-Li x5
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Giygas x5
King Boo x5
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x5
Black Shadow x2
Urbosa x2
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x1

Another Western character and Reimu Hakurei fly past 100 noms.

A new era of speculation begins! A with it come the return of Arle Nadja (with a whopping 20 noms), Bandana Dee (with 5), and also Urbosa (2 noms).

I don't think they should be removed from speculation.

I think if someone wants to nominate something for Smash speculation, let them. We're in unknown territory of Smash speculation.

And I for one no longer believe in something being deconfirmed

 

[FancySmash]

Kammy Kamella Kamek

Chance: 5%
As a series that's basically seen as a Mario Spin off, that's been with Smash since the beginning, and still hasn't seen another character, chances don't look good for Yoshi getting another rep to it's series. Even Wario has Ashley as an assist. Yoshi has nothing other than stages to help itself stand out. Not only that, but Kamek has a role in the game, on the SSBU stage. Now sure, they could easily edit the game to say said Magikoopa is a generic Magikoopa, and not Kamek, but they'd have to change all references to it being Kamek. It's not even as easy as removing him when he's being played, as he's necessary to make the stage function.

Want: 75%
I really would appreciate Yoshi's series being fleshed out a bit more. While Poochy is a nice addition, one I certainly wouldn't mind, I'd slightly prefer having Yoshi's antagonist first. The only other option I see is Baby Mario, or even Birdo for a Yoshi echo. Still, out of all of these, Kamek is my most preferred, especially considering magic could open up quite a unique moveset for him.

Predictions:
Saber: Hmm, not exactly on most people's radar... maybe 10.51%? We are in an unpredictable territory.

Nominations:
Captain Rainbow x5

 

[Ridrool64]

I think the Mii Costumes that are DLC should be counted as disconfirmed, since I don't think they'd completely kill the value of the Mii Costume by putting in something that obsoletes it, but really if people insist on keeping them, I wouldn't mind.

Everything else? Fair game. Besides non-video game, of course.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstaining on Kamek. We've just found out about more DLC, and while I do think a few first-party characters are gonna happen, we don't even know yet when the cutoff point for that was, unlike the first wave. I'm gonna need to wait and see for a bit.

As for the Mii Costumes, I do think Sans is deconfirmed, as his costume also came with music. Maybe the rest of the DLC costumes too, as adding them would render the costumes irrelevant, but I don't know on that.

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Artix]

Kamek

Chance: 5%
I just don't see Kamek happening, even after the more DLC Fighters announcement. Sure, first-parties are now back on the table, but Kamek isn't exactly what I would expect to show up after the Fighter's Pass. There are other first-party characters that are more popular and more demanding than Kamek and that really hinders his chances.

Want: 5%
Eh, I'm indifferent towards Kamek. Sure, I want another Yoshi rep but with how things are right now, it's not really good for him. But I gotta admit, Kamek might have some interesting moveset that he might bring in Smash.

Prediction:
Saber - 10.45% (Oh, boy...Here we go again. Let's hope people won't jump to conclusion that she's an anime character this time around...)

Nomination:
Jin Kazama x5

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Kamek
Chance: 2%. This old wizard geezer has a habit of getting snubbed for his hard work, doesn't he? One of Bowser's most competent minions and the Koopa king's iffy son gets priority. That's not just for Smash, but a lot of Mario games. Well, I doubt that'll change here especially given the circumstances. Spirit, mook in the vein of the already present Piranha Plant, even a stage element! It does not look good for him.
Want: 55%. Despite being indifferent on Kamek himself, I do think he could bring a lot to the table. While Smash does have a few mages, they're not as common as even pure fist-fighters and often don't have magic as their primary focus. Kamek's magic effects could be spun into an interesting tactical fighter with some potential for summons and projectile shenanigans. He also would make for a solid Yoshi rep, even if he is not my favorite choice. Don't get me wrong, I have other summoners I want to see over him, but it's not like I think his pure magic gimmick overlaps with my priorities.

Predictions
Saber: 8.13%. Trying something new this time. I can't say I've heard of Fate, but I do remember this character briefly showing up in rumors at some point... just not since.

Nominations
Adeleine (Kirby) x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

From my point of view, Mii costumes deconfirm characters as the team would not create costumes and make people pay them, only to turn around and create a unique character and make people pay more money. People would be turned off from buying costumes and wait to see if their favorite characters get upgraded from mii costume to playable character. It just doesn't make any business sense. I'm not saying it can't happen, but I'm very skeptical. But other than that, I think everything else is fair game, except for 4th party characters of course. Yes, even assist trophies as this is a good time to upgrade assist trophies into playable characters. Can you imagine how much Waluigi would sell? I know he has a Mii costume but the difference is his outfit came with the base game.

 

[3DSNinja]

Kamek:
Chance:1%: I don't think he is happening. Waluigi, Cpt. Toad, and Geno just absolutely murder Kamek's chances, and then Shy Guy and Poochy revitalize them just to kill them again. Yeah, no.
Want:50%: all of the above chars (except Poochy) would be preferable, but Kamek could be a cool mage. But Black Mage sounds far more appealing.
Nominations: Specter Knight x5

 

[Troykv]

Kamek:

Chance: 5%

Kamek is one of these characters that are just kind of there, they're recurrent but never managed to get the same impact as other ones; quite a shame, but well, Piranha already kind of took the role of a Mario Newcomer anyway.

Want: 50%

I'm not expecting anything in particular from him, but he can surprise me.

Predictions:

Saber/Altria (Fate): 9.6%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[Neosonic97]

OH, MY!

Chance: 5%
Probably not. We already have a Mario newcomer thus far, and while Kamek is a bit more fleshed out than your average Magikoopa, he's also pretty much only a mainstay in the Yoshi series, who I don't see as really having much of a shot at getting a second rep, anyway.

Want: Abstain.
I don't really know how I'd feel about him. That's all I can really say on the matter. I dunno.

Predictions: Saber (Fate): 7.5%

Noms: Reimu Rerate x5.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Eggface
Chance: 0%
Excuse me but didn't we originally call this character deconfirmed and removed him from the schedule cause of their presence in Mushroom Kingdom U? If that was just supposed to be a regular Magikoopa than I'm gonna be honest, I always thought they were the same character and I'm willing to bet alot of people did too. There basically is no difference between them barring the name. But whatever, stage cameo or not, he's (they're?) not getting in even with the additional DLC. He's just doesn't have a huge enough support base and gets eaten up by the competion from other, way more requested Mario characters. I'd even go as far to say he isn't even the likeliest pick from the Yoshi series.

Want: 0%
No attachment to his role in the Yoshi series. I haven't really played those games but even if I did I still can't imagine myself wanting Kamek. As for the general Magikoopa...let's say Piranha Plant already fulfills their purpose.

Saber: 11.71%
Bandana Dee x5

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Kamek
Chance 30%:although possible The fact that Kamek is a mario character makes him pretty difficult because he has competition with the request waluigi and geno even if these two are assist trophy and spirit respectfully.
Want 45%:I would like more magician characters so why not, so I would like to see kamek in future dlc.
Predictions: Saber 9.50%
Nominations:Jin Kazama X5

 

[Calamitas]

I'd appreciate more responses on whether you think these recent Mii Costumes are disconfirmations. I've gotten two responses (both negatives) but I'd like to hear some more. However if I don't then it's settled and Proto Man stays.

I feel like pretty much every DLC Mii costume is a deconfirmation for all of Ultimate's lifespan. Smash 4 also got costumes for Isabelle, Chrom and K. Rool, who all turned out to be newcomers for Ultimate, despite two of those characters being explicitly easy to make.

 

[Jomosensual]

Kamek

Chance 0 - Sure, everyone is back on the board with more DLC being a thing, but that doesn't mean anyone is. I see where there might be a case with him being the top villain in Yoshi's island, but I feel like Yoshi even being a Yoshi's Island rep is more of the devs wanting to rep the series over them actually doing something more with it.

Want 20- Wouldn't be the worst pick. Not a character I'd go to bat for either personally and since we're on DLC i'd like some bigger characters in it. Textbook base roster type of character

Noms:
Kratos x5

 

[BowserKing]

Kamek

Chance: 20%. While Kamek shows up on the Mushroom Kingdom U stage, that did not stop Piranha Plant (who appears in the Mushroom Kingdom (64) Stage, and is now Playable), since Piranha Plant is a mook. Kamek is also a mook, hence Kamek has a chance. Competition would be the main concern, but who knows.

Want: 75%. Kamek would be a fun magic user and a fun Yoshi Rep. Overall, Kamek would be a great choice for a new Yoshi Rep.

Noms: 2 for Earthworm Jim and 3 for Concept: Any Grass-Type Starter

Also, has there been a purge of Noms that I was not aware of?

 

[Jomosensual]

I'd appreciate more responses on whether you think these recent Mii Costumes are disconfirmations. I've gotten two responses (both negatives) but I'd like to hear some more. However if I don't then it's settled and Proto Man stays.

Spoiler: Nominations post-9/4 Direct Reactions pre-Kamek

Specter Knight x155
Ellie (The Last of Us) x150
Velvet Crowe x140
Gene (God Hand) x125
Adeleine (Kirby) x120
Rundas x115
Ninten x115

150 - 101

Kyo Kusanagi x110
Jin Kazama x110
[Rerate] Micaiah x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Concept: Another western character x105
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
9-Volt x100
Captain Rainbow x97
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Lara Croft x85
Amaterasu x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Kratos x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
Proto Man x75
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x75
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x73
Blaze the Cat x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Papyrus x56
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Prince of Persia x35

Under 25

Concept: Any grass-type starter x20
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x20
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x15
The Blob (De Blob) x15
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x10
Earthworm Jim x7
Chun-Li x5
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Giygas x5
King Boo x5
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x5
Black Shadow x2
Urbosa x2
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x1

Another Western character and Reimu Hakurei fly past 100 noms.

A new era of speculation begins! A with it come the return of Arle Nadja (with a whopping 20 noms), Bandana Dee (with 5), and also Urbosa (2 noms).

Id say that the new ones are for sure. All the Mii Costumes before that, even Rex's, are not for me

 

[Sari]

Completely forgot about the music post so here it is now:

Some songs to get into the Kamek mood:

Spoiler

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Kamek

Chance: Idk, the NSMBU stage sums up my thoughts about the cold-hard likelihood of Kamek. However...

Want: 40%
Kamek makes the most sense as a second Yoshi rep, something that I feel has been necessary for both Smash 4 and for Ultimate.

However...

The chance kind of influences the want. I'm more of an advocate for other characters that I am for Kamek. By this, I have come to view a second Yoshi rep as less of a priority than say a second Wario rep, a 4th Kirby rep, or a unique 4th Zelda rep. Yoshi serves his series fine as is, and while Kamek may be iconic, and bring a new wizard moveset to the table, he isn't "necessary" in my mind, which is why Kamek isn't a 70% or an 80%, but rather a 40%.

Nominations: 9-Volt x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Kamek
Chance: 0%
Want: Abstain

Kamek is stuck as a stage hazard on the NSMBU stage. I don't really have much else to say about this. Also Kamek would've made much more sense for the base roster.

Saber: 8.02%

The Horrible Goose x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Kamek
Chance: 0.01%
So, since we have more DLC confirmed, here is what I'll do for now: unless the character has been flat out disconfirmed in some way, I'm not giving a full 0%.

That said... there are several other Mario/Yoshi characters with way better chances. I see a lot of people arguing that we need more villains and he's the main antagonist of the Yoshi series... but when you think about it, he's really not. It's still Bowser - Baby Bowser, but Bowser nonetheless. Heck, I think even Poochy has better chances, with how Nintendo pushes him for the Yoshi game releases.

Want: 0%
Moveset wise - and I know this is a weird argument, because Sakurai has done crazier things - but I really don't see him as interesting. As a villain, he's more of a side antagonist than anything else and, while we could certainly use more different mage archetypes in Smash, I don't see Kamek doing anything groundbreaking.

Don't get me wrong - I'd love to see him more in Kart or the sports games, but as far as Smash is concerned, I'd rather have Kamek stay as a stage hazard (or maybe an Assist Trophy).

Predictions
Saber: 11.3%

Nominations
Arle Nadja x 5

 

[Aerospherology]

Kamek

Chance: 10%
Since the DLC characters are most likely all third-party, Kamek will probably not be in

Want: 25%
Another villain is good. That's all I have.

Nominations:
Chase McCain x3
Quote x2

 

[Calamitas]

Bit off-topic, but once we know who FP5 is, are we going to do a special "Fighter's Pass Satisfaction Day"? Considering that that fighter is going to conclude a set and also, in a way, an era of speculation, I think it would be appropriate.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Kamek

Chance: 0.01%

With Sakurai's latest column and what he said in Banjo's moveset video about additional fighters, it's going to be just 3rd partys only IMO. And that AT, new mii costumes added in Ultimate, and spirits are consolation prizes. Not to mention he's another c tier nintendo character as well.

Want: 0%

Wouldn't mind in base game along with other 1st party characters. But with DLC, 3rd parties all the way!

Saber Prediction: 17.3%

Nominate Reimu Hakurei rerate x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Kamek-Kamek-Kamekameleon

Chance: 0.5%
IMO the most logical choice for a second Yoshi character(What does Poochy even do? He's just a battering ram...) Kamek unfortunately suffers from a fair bit.

1. Sakurai seemingly focusing mostly on third parties
2. Being a vital part of the New Super Mario Bros. Stage
3. Not even being able to get into most Mario spinoff games for some reason
4. Could be classified as a Mario character of which there is a lot of competition.
5. Being a Yoshi character means he's mostly ignored.

All of this combined makes me think Kamek's got very little chance. In Yoshi's series he's got Poochy and Baby Mario to compete with alongside possibly Shy Guy or Baby Bowser and in Mario's series his competition is with some of the most requested and/or recognised Nintendo characters of all time; Waluigi, Geno, Paper Mario and Toad/Captain Toad.

Kamek really cannot be removed easily from the New Super Mario Bros. stage either with his magic being the thing that directly changes each screen making him less likely IMO than Pauline or even his fellow stage hazard Nabbit who is far less vital to the stage.

Want: 55%
Kamek COULD be really cool. He could summon various generic Mario enemies into fight for him like Koopa Troopa, Goomba, Piranha Plant, Dry Bones and Lakitu. He could be a nice addition to the relatively small niche of magic users in Smash too.

However, I'd be lying if I said I want him as playable...in Smash...at least yet. In Mario Kart he's my most wanted alongside Pauline to get on the damn racing roster and I literally punched the air in joy when he was added into Mario Tennis Aces so I do clearly like the Magikoopa quite a lot.
Kamek DOES deserve far more playable appearances than he gets being Bowser's right hand man in both the Yoshi titles and the New Super Mario Bros. series and if we must have a Yoshi rep he's the best option available by a country mile.

He's also within my top ten most wanted Mario newcomers, but the likes of Toad/Captain Toad, Toadette and Waluigi far outstrip him in personal want, as does Pauline, Nabbit and Paper Mario...and Dixie Kong if you're one of the mad lads that lump DK characters in with Mario's crew. 8th isn't too bad though considering how much I adore the Mario-verse.

Nomination:
Lara Croft X 5

Saber prediction: 11.5%

 

[Sid-cada]

Kamek

Chance - 0.5% - I consider the NSMBU stage to be not quite a disinformation, but close enough to one. With an increased insight for third parties, I have verry little faith.

Want - 75% - A good example of what I consider a character with potential. I'd always envision him as a minion master, someone who summons folks like shy guys and Goombas and letting them wreck havoc for you. I've been enchanted by his playstlye and feel like he'd always be a good pick for another Nintendo character.


Prediction

Saber - 2.24% - I have my doubts...

Nominations

Farmer X5

 

[DaUsername]

Kamek
Chance: 0.01%
I could think of about 10 different Mario characters we'd get before this guy shows up.
He's also a stage hazard, though I'm not sure how much that matters since is also technically a stage hazard.
Want: 0%
I'd rather he show up in Mario Kart before this game. (Seriously, he was screwed out of being in Mario Kart twice.)

Saber prediction: A very sad 15%
Noms: Another western character x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Can we please have Saber's day?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Can we please have Saber's day?

Since you sassed me not until after I eat, 8 pm est.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

Rate saber and predict kyle hyde

 

[GoodGrief741]

I've been dreading this day for a while.

I guess to give context and also to avoid repeating myself I'll start by quoting myself from the last time we rated a Fate character.

Woo boy I’ve been dreading this day

The guy that burnt Rome, now in waifu form!

Chance: 0%
If a Fate character gets in, it’s Saber. And not Red Saber, the one people know. There might be arguments for other characters to get in, but not any Saber before the Saber. Fate in Smash alone is something I don’t find likely at all, so this doesn’t even earn my obligatory post-Piranha Plant 1%.

Want: 0%
I don’t want Fate in Smash. I would hate Fate in Smash. Fate in Smash is to be on the level of Minecraft in Smash. There are several reasons as to why. Maybe it’s because of the H-game origin. Maybe it’s because I think it’s claim to fame isn’t videogames, but rather anime (like Digimon). Maybe it’s because I heavily associate Fate with gacha games, which are slowly but surely killing the industry. Maybe it’s because I’m severely uncomfortable with the tendency to play fast and loose with history, including but not limited to: turning real-life people into waifus, lolis and traps, and butchering several mythologies. Fate just makes me uncomfortable and I’d rather stay as far away from it as possible.

Heh, January me had been dreading that day as well.

So, what's changed, what's stayed the same, and what's different between Blue Saber and Red Saber?

Since then I guess you could say Smash has reaffirmed itself as a "everything-goes-as-long-as-it's-a-videogame" crossover, at least for the time being. So the argument could be made that Fate could be included despite its obscurity outside Japan on the back of its massive Japanese popularity. I disagree, though. We haven't really reached this point yet, at least.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Fate Grand Order fallen out of popularity relative to Granblue Fantasy? This is hearsay, so don't take my word as fact, but I definitely heard this somewhere. Probably from an irl friend who is an uber-fan of the franchise.

There's also the additional fact that Fate Grand Order (the most popular game and really the only reason we're even debating this right now) is published by a Sony subsidiary. This isn't something new, but I hadn't mentioned it before, and how much this would affect Smash chances is up for debate (the IP is still in the firm hands of type moon and Sega even got to do an arcade version of Grand Order).

Obviously the biggest difference is that Saber is kind of the face of the franchise so she definitely beats Nero and probably any other character when it comes to chances.

As for what stays the same... I really don't think Nintendo's going for this. We're talking about a series that started as hentai games, guys. This is a franchise whose claims to fame are anime and gacha games. It's not a gaming titan; it's barely a game to begin with. If they wanted to rep visual novels, there are better candidates. I doubt Nintendo would rep it over other gachas - like the one it owns (FE Heroes) or the other one it owns (Dragalia Lost) or even the one owned by a company it partly owns (****ing Granblue Fantasy again). And if they wanted to rep H-games... Well you got me there, but it wouldn't happen.

As for want: beyond the moral reason why I don't want to pretend gacha games are anything but exploitative, predatory bull**** ruining the industry and people's lives... Fate really makes me uncomfortable. I've mentioned why before, pretty much. I'm sorry if this offends any fans, but... yeah. I don't think Fate deserves to be in Smash, but also I don't want it there, pure and simple. I hope when I die people don't turn me into an anime person and objectify me for cash; to be honest I feel like that's one of the biggest disservices you could do to a person.

I figured I'd end this rating with a quote by ProfPeanut that always stuck with me.

Behold the amorality of historical revisionism. Behold its flagrant complicity in Japan's never-ending hunger for waifus.

(Oh yeah scores are 0%)

Kyle Hyde prediction: Oh boy I guess I gotta write that big post! C'mon guys, give him a chance! (Yeah 0.9%)

Noms: Prince of Persia x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Artoria Saber

Chance: 5% - As a surprise to many, Saber is technically a game character, though originating from the Fate/Stay Night visual novels in a Phoenix Wright vain. Though for quite awhile the franchise was very niche until the Fate/Apocrypha anime and Fate Grand Order mobile game came along (along with the alienation of a lot of the Fate Stay Night/Zero era fans), and while it is booming in Japan the Fate series is primarily known for anime and mobile gacha (and alot of fan art and questionable designs). Though it did recently receive a spinoff in the form of Fate/Extella which has a Switch version, its' Nintendo presence is limited. Furthermore, Saber herself is pretty overshadowed in the Grand Order era by new leads like Mashu or similar characters like Mordred, Nero, or (dare I say it) Astolfo. or even more popular characters like Tamamo. So as face of the franchise these days she has competition. Still, to the absolute core audience she will always be the main servant alongside her buddies Gilgamesh and Emiya, even if they themselves are only small and on the side in modern box art while Nero and Tamamo take the spotlight. Plus it's anyone's game for DLC, so basically anyone who originates from a game has a chance.

Want: 3% - I've never been much of a fan of Fate and ever since Grand Order came along their portrayal of historical figures has been a major turn off at best and an absolute disaster at worst (especially since many do not look or act anything like their historical counterparts; and this is coming from someone who loves the nuclear Gandhi jokes from the Civ series). Furthermore, the modern games Grand Order and Extella have very grindy gameplay with the former being a notoriously unforgiving gacha moneysink, and I don't find their gameplay types very appealing. It just isn't the kind of thing Nintendo is going for, and if they wanted to rep mobile they'd more than likely go with Dragalia Lost instead. Still, back in the Stay/Night and Zero days the series was more respectable (aside from the hentai, of course), and Saber (despite being a genderbend) still acts like her basis of King Arthur and takes inspiration from the source material. So if Fate has to have a representative in the game then someone like her (or Gilgamesh, Emiya, or even Rin/Shirou with all three as a Pokemon Trainer esque character) would be the best and most respectable way to do so. Still, I personally would rather not see this series in Smash, especially with all of the exciting potential picks that come from more engaging games.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5


Predictions:
Kyle Hyde: 1.83%

 

[Sari]

♪ Saber Music ♪

Here are some songs to get into the Fate series mood:

Spoiler

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Abstaining completely on Saber. I don't know much about the Fate series to give a proper rating.

Kyle Hyde chance prediction: 0.68% (this guy has literally everything going against him)

Nominations:
You know what? Screw it. This will probably be the last time we ever get to rate him so I might as well do it since he already has so many noms:

Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[Deleted member]

Konosuba's Darkness with a Blue Alt

Chance: Abstain

I'm gonna abstain on this 1 for today. I can't really think of anything to talk about on Saber's chances due to not knowing enough about her and Fate as a whole.

Want: 22%

There are some characters and franchises that I don't really know yet would still root behind them for some reason, but Saber happens to not be 1 of them. At first glance, she looks like an armored anime Peach with a sword. I wouldn't be too upset if she were to make it to Smash, but I'm not really gonna say I was incredibly hyped about it either. Maybe she'll have a moveset that'd look cool, but as far as today goes, Saber doesn't seem like the kind of character for me.
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Predictions:
Kyle Hyde - 4.3%
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Noms:
Zhao Yun x5