Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Nemuresu]

Not-Marvel's Grim Reaper
Chance: 0%-Tracer is the mascot as many pointed out, so she gets more benefits than other characters. Also, I looked this up, and Reaper isn't even among the most played Overwatch characters as of March 6th 2018, so much less on his favour.
Want: 0%-I'm so not interested in Blizzard's characters. If I wanted an FPS character, I'd take Doomguy or Master Chief instead.
Nominations: Dantex5

 

[Ridrool64]

Blooregard Q. Kazoo

Chance: 0%. Reaper has hideously stiff competition from his own series in the form of Tracer. The main character, plenty of uniqueness, and the draw of having a third-party openly LGBT character in Smash would probably be a lot more enticing than a side character. They won't put in Infinite before Sonic, they won't put in Rafisol before Arle, they won't put in Shinnok before Scorpion. I think Reaper has that issue, even if he isn't a villain character, we won't get an antagonistic force before the Hero of a new franchise.

Want: 20%. Not Arle competition so Reaper at least has that, but if I had to choose any Overwatch character it'd have to be Mei. I find him an inoffensive character and wouldn't mind his inclusion, but I have no real attachment to him.

Ryu Hayabusa x 5. Grovyle is another first party who rejects the path of Joker, so... 3.20%.

 

[3DSNinja]

Not Tracer
CHance: 1% Tracer is the mascot. But he could b second rep
Want:90%: He looks so cool. And any Blizzard rep is okay by me
Nominations: Shy Guy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Reimu Hakurei pre-Reaper

Ravio x190
Dark Matter x185
Professor Hector x185
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x175
Dante x165
Andy (Advance Wars) x160
Shy Guy x150
Concept: World of Light expansion x150
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x150
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x150

150 - 101

Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x140
Kat & Ana x140
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x139
Ryota Hayami x135
Sly Cooper x130
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Poochy x125
Concept: Style Savvy rep x125
Concept: Boss Rush x120
Hat Kid x120
Magikarp x119
Q*Bert x119
Amy Rose x115
Vaati x115
Brash the Bear x115
Cranky Kong x110
Tracer x105
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51

Monster Hunter x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Boss: Kracko x85
9-Volt x74
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x70
Spyro x62

50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Ryu Hayabusa x25
Noctis Lucis Caelum x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Frogger x15
[Rerate] 2B x15
Yuri Lowell x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Reporter & Wrestler x10
Saber (Fate) x10
[Rerate] Erdrick x10
Adeleine (Kirby) x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Tetromino x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Professor Hector ties up with Dark Matter for second place. World of Light expansion, Arthas Menethil, and 100 characters all tie with Shy Guy for seventh place.

Speak of the devil, Tracer warps past 100 noms.

Noctis Lucis Caelum rings up to 25 noms. (Yes I do need to work on my puns)

Not-Marvel's Grim Reaper
Chance: 0%-Tracer is the mascot as many pointed out, so she gets more benefits than other characters. Not to mention, I don't find Overwatch to be as popular as some paint it out to be, at least, not when comparing it to other games like Persona 5 or NieR Automata, so the idea of a character from that franchise in Smash is already quite a stretch to me.
Want: 0%-I'm so not interested in Blizzard's characters. If I wanted an FPS character, I'd take Doomguy or Master Chief instead.

Persona 5 sales (as of May): 2.2 million
NieR Automata sales (as of December): 3.5 million
Overwatch playerbase (as of May): 40 million

Yes, Overwatch came out the year prior, and yes, P5 and Automata, being single player games, might be resold, but c’mon, it’s not even a dent. If you assume both games will sell tenfold of what they have so far by their third years in the market, they still wouldn’t reach Overwatch.

 

[Nemuresu]

Persona 5 sales (as of May): 2.2 million
NieR Automata sales (as of December): 3.5 million
Overwatch playerbase (as of May): 40 million

Yes, Overwatch came out the year prior, and yes, P5 and Automata, being single player games, might be resold, but c’mon, it’s not even a dent. If you assume both games will sell tenfold of what they have so far by their third years in the market, they still wouldn’t reach Overwatch.

Oh. My bad. Will edit my post later.

 

[Deleted member]

Forget about this post I immediately regret it and would delete if I could just forget about this

 

[Deleted member]

Reaper,
Chance 1%
Tracer is the face of the franchise and, even taking her out, other characters are certainly more popular than him. Plus if you count the company as Activision-Blizzard, you also have stuff like Diablo, Warcraft, Crash, Spyro, Starcraft, and so on.
Want 0%
I played OW for a while and I'm not a fan, while it was entertaining at first it become quite boring with the limitation on boards and modes. If we end up getting an OW character, I would prefer someone else.

Nominate Ryota x 5, just for fun

 

[CureParfait]

Reaper
Chance- 8%
I do think Overwatch is one of the Western IP games that has a shot for Smash. For Reaper's case if there is an Overwatch rep it'll most likely be Tracer or D.Va.

Want- 100%
Given he is one of my favourite Overwatch characters, Reaper is a definite want for FPS reps along with D.Va for me.

 

[Artix]

Reaper

Chance: 1%
When it comes to having an Overwatch rep in Smash, Tracer always comes to mind since she's basically the mascot of the series. Having Reaper represent Overwatch instead of Tracer will be like having Bison represent Street Fighter instead of Ryu, it just doesn't make sense. Besides, they still have competition from other Blizzard series like Warcraft or Diablo and from other well-known FPS games like Doom and Halo.

Want: 0%
I have played Overwatch for a month and while I do find Reaper to be interesting, I just don't want him in the game. If we're getting an Overwatch rep, it's going to be Tracer and not him.

Grovyle Prediction: 1.33%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Die die die
Chance: 0%
Tracer is the face of the game. Meanwhile I don't think Reaper is even in the top five. Not that it matters because OW representation in the game at all is highly unlikely. It's been a while and there's still no sign of it coming to the Switch.

Want: 0%
Characters and the series they come from whom have absolutely nothing to do with Nintendo don't belong in the game. Also I have no interest in OverWatch at the moment and Reaper doesn't look like he'd suit my tastes anyway.

Grovyle: 2.79%
100 characters x5

 

[SmasherMaster]

"Death Comes"
Chance: 0%
Reaper has a ghost of a chance. While an Overwatch hero isn't impossible, it would have to be the poster girl Tracer, not Reaper. Even if we ignore Tracer, I feel like heroes like D'Va and even Genji are more likely. Plus Overwatch still hasn't shown up on the switch yet, and that is on top of ignoring Blizzard/Activision's other franchises.
Want: 25%
I like overwatch, but I would prefer it to be released for the Switch before it gets a character in Smash. If an Overwatch hero got in, I would want their Final Smash to be like Shulk's where they have like five teammates attack followed by the heroes' ultimate.

Nominations:
Decidueye x4
Tracer x1

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Reaper

Chance: 0%
Let's face it: if we're getting someone from Overwatch in Smash, it's going to be their mascot, Tracer. But even then, I highly doubt Overwatch would get a rep in Smash, especially since it never had a Nintendo release. They also have some stiff competition with other Activision-Blizzard games like Warcraft, Diablo, Crash or Spyro, with the latter two being more likely than Overwatch.

Want: 0%
As much as I like Reaper, there are other well-known 3rd party characters I would consider before him. But even then, I would still prefer Tracer over Reaper if we're getting an Overwatch rep, but first, the game needs to have a Switch port before I can consider them.

Nominations:
Noctis Lucis Caelum x5

 

[Deleted member]

Chance:
Wouldn't Tracer be the one who gets in? It's not like TF2 where it's hard to say who's the face of the franchise. Tracer is the face of Overwatch. Maybe in a world after Tracer gets in?

I haven't discussed my opinion on whether Overwatch could get into Smash yet so I'll do that. So Overwatch was one of those shooter hits that revived a lot of interest in the genre. It's incredibly successful. The playerbase is only ever increasing and it scores millions of the green stuff. There's no Switch release yet, which has me on the pessimistic end of the scale. If they don't do that, what would even be the point? Overwatch in Smash is possible but not foreseeable as is.

Want:
So for Tracer, I have little knowledge of what she's like. There was some weird controversy about one of her victory poses and also Blizzard trying to remove porn of the game. Really, that's all I know other than she can also rewind to where she was at a couple of seconds ago, which is admittedly awesome. They could do something with that, but you can tell I'm not really excited about Overwatch. I never played Overwatch.

Now Reaper clicked with me immediately. He is a grim reaper wielding two loaded shotguns. Visually, I love that, but I don't really want him in Smash.

 

[Flyboy]

Reaper
Chance: 0%
So, this is not about Overwatch. I actually feel like Overwatch has a much bigger shot than anyone gives it credit for. It's a game that took the world by storm, has huge tournaments regularly, is big absolutely everywhere on the esports scene, AND has incredibly recognizable characters. I'd even say that Reaper is one of the OG most-recognizable characters in the game. However, he has a pretty big name to compete with, and that's Tracer. Tracer is the mascot, the face of the game, a fantastic character in her own right, and if any Overwatch character was getting the invite it'd be her first.

Want: 40%
I want to first send out a HUGE shout-out to that awesome moveset by RealPokeFan11 . A great post.

Now, some personal history. I was excited for Overwatch ever since seeing the first trailer. I picked it up on PS4 day one after playing the open beta nonstop. I loved every second of it. I immediately fell in love with my girl Tracer, but the other characters I had fun with as characters were D.Va, Reaper, and Mei, with everyone else also finding a place in my heart. I love the OG Overwatch cast.

I haven't played the game in two years. It's almost unrecognizable from the game I fell in love with. I still respect it, but with the lore changes and strange rebalancing and...I don't even know how to describe it, but it just doesn't feel like it's for me anymore. That said, I still absolutely love Tracer and the OG gang.

If there is an Overwatch rep, I want it to be Tracer. She's my favorite, hands-down, and a very important character to me. I even have her Funko Pop, and I never buy Funko Pops. Reaper? Well, he's a good second choice. He's an important villain, hilarious and memorable, has a great kit with firepower and stealth moves and teleportation, and again I have a soft spot for all OG Overwatch heroes. However, I can't say I, like, really want anything more than just Tracer if Overwatch were to get represented.

I also have a small hangup in that outside of 2B and maybe Master Chief I think all Smash characters need some kind of major Nintendo appearance for me to truly want them in the fight. Overwatch on Switch would be absolutely awesome, but that hasn't happened yet and until it does I can't really go any higher, especially not when there's a clear cut character from the game I want much more.

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5

 

[shocktarts17]

Reaper
Chance: 0%
Overwatch is insanely popular but that really is about all it has going for it concerning it's chances. Its more relevant than some of the other reps of series who would get in purely on popularity being still fairly recent and constantly promoted with e-sports but it doesn't have the same history that other reps vying for a "popularity" pick. On top of this the developers originally made it very clear they had no interest in bringing OW to the Switch, though it seems like that view has softened a bit it may have been too late to get a DLC pick with that kind of mindset. Then you have it being a Western company and it's just hard to see anyone from Overwatch getting in. THEN on top of all of that Reaper has to compete against the rest of the colorful cast and it's really very difficult to see Reaper come out on top there.

Want: 5%
I am super conflicted on my want score. On the one hand I adore Overwatch and the colorful cast is one of the main reasons, seeing them in Smash would be pretty cool. On the other hand Reaper would not be my first pick with Lucio being my favorite and Tracer being more of a "mascot." Not to mention that while I love OW since it doesn't have any Nintendo history I really don't think it belongs in Smash.

Prediction: Grovyle 3%
Not a great time to be a Pokemon in RTC
Nominations: Ravio x5
Back On Top: The Ravio story of getting nominated for RTC after everyone else is already done.

 

[TheSeelGoesMeow]

Reaper

chance 49%
To edgy plus his posibility's for moves are shoot teleport disapear shoot

Want 50%
I prefer symetra even though she is periferal but would be hilarious

Nominations assist trophies as fighters 5x

 

[HYRULESHERO42]

Reaper

Chance: 0%
Game isn’t on a Nintendo platform. Game has no significance to “gaming history” as a whole since that is apparently a requirement nowadays. And it personally bothers me that the game was designed to be an esport first and a fun game second.

Want: 0% - only because negative percentages are a paradox
Overwatch has no business being in Smash. Leave Blizzard to their personal conventions and professional video game leagues. The only thing about this game that is any good is that you can play as a giant gorilla, and we already have one of those in house.

 

[shocktarts17]

Reaper

chance 49%
To edgy plus his posibility's for moves are shoot teleport disapear shoot

Want 30% I prefer symetra

Hey welcome to Smash Boards!

I'll go ahead and post the rules from the first page in case you hadn't seen them yet,

Welcome to Rate Their Chances! This is a reboot of the game played during Smash 4 and Smash 4 DLC Speculation.

How to Play
Each day there will be a focus on a specific character or concept for smash switch. We shall rate these characters both on how likely we view them and how much we desire them from 0-100%. When posting, you also can nominate characters to rate. Each poster is given five nominations per day. The list of nominations will be found in a post below. You also can potentially predict the chance score for the character that will be predicted next, which the closest guess will get an extra 5 noms. An exact guess will get 10 extra noms.

Rules
1. Characters must originate from a video game. It is preferred that they must have been featured on at least one Nintendo console.

2. -You're allowed to debate but please no flame wars. Also please refrain from non explanations, as a spirit of debate is encouraged. Posts lacking at least 2 sentences in reasoning of chance and want will be invalid and your scores and nominations will be ignored. Abstaining from a rating will not require reasoning, though it would be appreciated.

3. Please do not discuss a character after their day has ended. If you wish to discuss a character again start nominating them for a rerate, however please wait at least two weeks before renominating a character.

4. Please avoid counter votes. You are free to disagree but do not rate something negatively to be a jerk.

5. Explicit character deconfirmation means a character will not be rated again. In the event that it happens before a character is rated they shall be removed from planned days or the nominations list.

6. Any of the following veterans should not be discussed as it is likely that they will return.

The only thing you need to change to get your score counted is add a little more detail to each section, at least two sentences worth.

Once you do that feel free to nominate someone you would like us to rate, there is a list of the current nominations here,

Ravio x190
Dark Matter x185
Professor Hector x185
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x175
Dante x165
Andy (Advance Wars) x160
Shy Guy x150
Concept: World of Light expansion x150
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x150
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x150

150 - 101

Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x140
Kat & Ana x140
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x139
Ryota Hayami x135
Sly Cooper x130
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Poochy x125
Concept: Style Savvy rep x125
Concept: Boss Rush x120
Hat Kid x120
Magikarp x119
Q*Bert x119
Amy Rose x115
Vaati x115
Brash the Bear x115
Cranky Kong x110
Tracer x105
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51

Monster Hunter x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Boss: Kracko x85
9-Volt x74
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x70
Spyro x62

50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Ryu Hayabusa x25
Noctis Lucis Caelum x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Frogger x15
[Rerate] 2B x15
Yuri Lowell x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Reporter & Wrestler x10
Saber (Fate) x10
[Rerate] Erdrick x10
Adeleine (Kirby) x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Tetromino x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1
Professor Hector ties up with Dark Matter for second place. World of Light expansion, Arthas Menethil, and 100 characters all tie with Shy Guy for seventh place.

Speak of the devil, Tracer warps past 100 noms.

Noctis Lucis Caelum rings up to 25 noms. (Yes I do need to work on my puns)

You get 5 nominations and can use them all for the same person or spread them out, it doesn't have to be someone on this list either you're welcome to pick anyone you want.

Enjoy rating!

 

[Deleted member]

REAP WHAT YOU KILL

Chance :
Reaper is one of the many heroes (or villains I suppose) playable in Overwatch, released in 2016 to massive popularity. Reaper’s one of the OG characters, having appeared in the very first trailer and being one of the game’s most prominent antagonists and recognisable characters. Overwatch’s popularity is undeniable, within a week of release the game had over 7 million accounts, with 40 million as of May 2018 (although how many are active is questionable). The game grossed over 1 billion dollars in sales by the end of 2017, and topped the store charts on XBox and PS4. The game’s popularity even extended to Japan, with several figures being made of the game’s more popular characters such as Tracer. The phenomenon has definitely died down, but the game still has a very active player base. Given Joker’s inclusion, the DLC roster may have been chosen sometime in 2016 or 2017, where Overwatch was at its most popular. It’s very possible Nintendo would want to capitalise on this popularity and add a character from the game. Blizzard has shown support for the switch recently, releasing Diablo 3 and even having their own amiibo with exclusive Zelda content. However, one game that notably hasn’t released on Swicth is Overwatch. Blizzard themselves have said it’s not very likely that the game will be ported to the Switch. Joker’s press release mentions the SMT series and it’s history with Nintendo, making it seem legacy still matters and Overwatch characters have never appeared on a Nintendo system. Overwatch as a series is very new too, having only begun in 2016. If we were to get an Overwatch character, why would it be Reaper? He is a popular antagonist, but Tracer is the mascot and the most iconic and popular character, with characters like Soldier 76 and D. Va having major popularity too. Hell, some big names at Blizzard have said that if they were to get a character in Smash, they’d pick Diablo. It was only a few guys and it doesn’t alter much, but I thought that was interesting. Blizzard themselves isn’t exactly in the best shape now either, although Konami’s in the game
1%
I can see him being maybe the third Overwatch character added.

Want :
I tried out Overwatch but it wasn’t really my cup of tea. I’m not very interested in seeing an Overwatch character added to Smash, but if you forced me to pick one I wouldn’t mind Reaper. I don’t hate his design and I think he could have a really interesting moveset, with his shadow powers and guns. Still though, would rather just not have Overwatch in Smash.
15%
Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Reaper:

Chance: 10 - An Overwatch charater feels like a good pick for a season 2 DLC, but for season 1 I'm not sure. Would be a cool pick for DLC and would absolutely fit with the surprise characters theme, but Reaper likely not being the first choice for even an Overwatch character hurts his chances a lot

Want - Abstain

Noms:
Cranky Kong x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Reaper

Chance - 0% - Even if Overwatch was going to get a character, there's a clear mascot in Tracer that will get in first. Considering Overwatch get a character itself is highly questionable, I can't image him getting in right now.

Want - 20% - I'm not interested in Overwatch getting a character in Smash Bros. At least Tracer would be fairly interesting, but I find Reaper to be not quite as much of one.

Prediction

Grovyle - 1.34% - Not with a new generation coming around...

Nominations

Dark Matter X5

 

[PeridotGX]

Reaper

Chance: 0%. If we were to get an OW character, it's gonna be tracer. And OW might not even get a character

Want: Abstain. I'm not a huge Overwatch player

Noms: Maxwell x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Reaper:
Chance: 0%
If Overwatch was getting a rep, it would be Tracer. She's on the cover of the game. Overwatch probably wouldn't get a rep any way.

Want: 70%
I like Overwatch, and while there is almost no chance of a rep coming, I'd freak out if someone got in. I can see Reaper working but you would have to pull from Overwatch lore for a few moves.

Noms:
Malzahar x5

 

[SPEN18]

overwatch thing

Chance: 0%
I really don't think Overwatch is getting a character; it probably doesn't really fit with Nintendo's marketing plan. Such an inclusion would probably be weirder than Cloud or Joker.

Want: 0%
Nope. Not a fan of Overwatch, and I also don't think it has the credentials to be in Smash in terms of association with Nintendo. There are plenty of other franchises I'd rather see, even among third parties.

 

[Sudz]

Reaper:

Chance: 0%
If Overwatch got a rep in Smash Bros, it would be Tracer without a doubt. Overwatch getting representation in smash is unlikely as it is, so I don't think Reaper has any shot whatsoever.

Want: 0%
If Overwatch got a rep in Smash Bros, I would want it to be Tracer because she's the only one on their roster that could be considered iconic in any facet. But that's a pretty big stretch. Overwatch has had little impact on the gaming industry as a whole despite its sales and is undeserving of a rep imo. Reaper specifically is not interesting nor important enough to be worthy of it.

Nominations:
Shy Guy x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Reaper

Chance: 0.001%

-Reaper is not even the face of the game, it's Tracer.
-I don't think Blizzard is one of the new companies that will join Smash Ultimate at all. Especially with their PR right now.

Want: 0%

-Please no Overwatch or any Blizzard character. I'm not giving Blizzard my money.
-If I had to choose a Blizzard character, it would be Diablo.

Grovyle Prediction: 0.77%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5

 

[PK-remling Fire]

Reaper

Chance: 3%
Honestly there's a ton of stuff going against Reaper's inclusion. For one, Blizzard would probably not play ball. Secondly, if by some miracle Smash Bros did get an OW rep, it would almost certainly be Tracer, who has both a more unique moveset and is more recognizable.

Want: 10%
This is coming from someone who plays OW, but I don't really like the idea of some "fps guy" getting into smash bros. It just doesn't really fit the whole "smash bros" aesthetic and just sounds like a boring character to me imho.

Nom: Dark Matter x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Reapfield

Chance: 0.5%
For goodness' sake, Reaper isn't even in the top half of Overwatch characters that'd get into Smash. He doesn't inspire very much in terms of Smash compatibility, being stuck on the ground most of the time and preferring to simply shoot his enemies in the head until they stopped moving. He isn't in the most popular character either, in terms of aesthetic appeal or competitive use, and is easily trumped by the likes of Genji and Tracer.

Lastly, this assumes that Nintendo seeks to represent Blizzard in the first place - one of the most American corporations they could go for. That's already a whole lot of wistful thinking to make a leap for.

Want: 25%
Last I checked, Make Your Move was in the other forum. Overwatch representations wouldn't be the worst thing, but Reaper's a character that people like either ironically or unironically, and isn't an easy choice as a candidate. Maybe an Assist Trophy that uses his Death Blossom would be a better role for him.


Nominations
Hat Kid x5

(where are the chance scores?)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Not Tracer

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Now this one's interesting...

First thing - Overwatch itself is definitely qualified. I'm the kind of person who can't play FPSs to save their life, and I think MMOs are the spawn of the devil. That means I've never played Overwatch, and have no intention of ever doing so. And yet, I know over 50% of the characters, they all look fun, and I even have a bit of an idea of what the game's about. Now most of my knowledge of the game comes from KnowYourMeme, but I'll take that as meaning that this is fairly pervasive.

That's what it means to be iconic. Someone who really avoids the game but yet still knows a good deal about it. Iconicness isn't "This is super popular in this one niche," it's "This is pervasively popular."

Now for Reaper himself? He's pretty well on the lower end of the spectrum in terms of who are the most 'visible' characters, far behind the likes of Tracer, D.Va, and Mercy (I'm noticing a theme behind the characters the internet likes). For the guys, McCree, Hanzo, and Soldier: 76 (especially with the latest surprise reveal for him) are the ones you hear the most about. Reaper does get some noise, but he's farther behind most of them. I feel like if anyone from Overwatch got in, Tracer's been the face of the game since it released, so she'd probably be the go-to.

This of course assumes Blizzard is interested in having Overwatch represented. While it does have a lot going for it, there was that one interview where Blizzard favored Diablo if they were to get someone. Honestly, Tracer would fit better in Smash, but playing as legit hellspawn could also be badass. Fortunately, we're mostly there already.

I really don't need to have Overwatch represented since I don't know the game, but I do recognize its importance in online gaming culture. It's kind of where Steve is for me - relevant, qualified, but I have no connection to it. At least Tracer doesn't have an ugly artstyle to go with it.

Now what I would like to see Smash take from Overwatch though is its support system. They've released new characters for Overwatch for the past few years after it released, so I'm all for Smash being supported for an extended period like that. I would love to see a few years of Smash DLC support.

 

[Neosonic97]

I'm gonna need to abstain on both fronts for this week, since I really don't have any opinions on Overwatch.

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Reaper
Chance: 0.01%
Overwatch is already very unlikely to get in considering the franchise has literally never been on Nintendo. Yeah yeah, Cloud and Joker, but both of those have at least had some games in their franchises on Nintendo consoles.
Also Reaper himself is far from the choice to be the Overwatch Rep, Tracer would probably be first, followed by D Va or Mercy, in terms of popularity.
Want: 0%
Again, even if I wanted an Overwatch Rep (which I don't), I'd rather have Tracer or the others above. Reaper would probably be on the bottom of my list.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Rating from me coming soon, long story of personal issues keeping me from posting.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna post my rating later and abstain, New day.

 

[Ridrool64]

The Token Twofer of Smash Representation

Chance: 5%. Not being a Gen 7 Star or Gen 8 prospect is bad enough, but now we have to deal with a massive hurdle: there's a pretty good chance we might get an all Third Party set. Still, nothing about the guy screams impossible, though I don't even remember if he has a Spirit or not.

Want: 20%. I really don't care, even though Treecko is my go-to in RSE (Torchic is for ORAS), since this is specifically Mystery Dungeon Grovyle. I'm not sure what about Mystery Dungeon makes it that special that it needs a dedicated representative, that Pikachu and Squirtle do not count. At least he's not Arle competition, so I can't get too mad.

Sly Cooper x 5. Gen 8 Pokemon used to have like a 80% chance, but now I'm thinking it's more like an 8% chance. On the dot.

 

[shocktarts17]

Grovyle
Chance: 1%
If I remember correctly the nomination made mention that this was supposed to be Grovyle from the Mystery Dungeon games? I'm sure that was supposed to help his chances but considering the only Pokemon spin-off game referenced in Smash is Detective Pikachu, who happens to have a movie coming making him a very rare special case, I just don't see there being any chance they would draw from the spin-off games for a Pokemon fighter, not when they have plenty of other options still from the main games. If he was from the latest generation of Pokemon as well as having a prominent role in Mystery Dungeon that might have helped him to have a better chance at the base roster, but even then I doubt they would have referenced Mystery Dungeon at all in his moveset. For the current DLC he has next to no chance as is.

Want: 55%
Treecko is one of my favorite Pokemon from one of my favorite generations so I'd be excited to see him make it in, even if Grovyle is my least favorite of that evolution line. That said I probably even have other Pokemon I'd rather see before him, not to mention characters from other games.

Prediction: Gen 8 Pokemon 4%
Nomination: Ravio x5

 

[CureParfait]

Grovyle

Chance- 10%
I do think a Pokemon rep being in this DLC fighter's pass is pretty likely, even though I don't think it would be Mystery Dungeon dedicated. For Grovyle's chances I think it is fairly low. Since I feel like Incineroar might of tanked the chances of any starter Pokemon becoming DLC in a way and I think it is more likely that more notable Pokemon who are Pokeballs will be promoted to DLC than Grovyle becoming DLC.

Want- 1%
I do want a Pokemon rep for DLC but Grovyle isn't even my most wanted for Pokemon reps. If there is a Pokemon/Mystery Dungeon rep for Smash DLC I would prefer Darkrai.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I’m not able to calc noms right now and won’t be able to for most of the day as I’m headed for my D&D session.

Want to do a big-ish writeup today, not just about Grovyle but about the lamentable state of Pokémon representation, so I’ll also leave that for later.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Wishfull thinking
Chance: 0.01
I'm assuming this is indeed the specific PMD Grovyle we're talking about here because otherwise there would pretty much be no reason to include him. If we're getting another Pokémon as DLC it'll be one from gen 8, and I myself think it's debatable that even that'll happen. The competition for Grovyle is so enormous he ironically has competition from a Pokémon from his own line. Yeah, Sceptile is just way more popular and even had a notable following during the ballot. Also, I don't think Mystery Dungeon has ever been referenced in any Smash game. Even if that does actually happen in a future installment, it will likely be referencing the latest game in the series and probably not even through a character inclusion.

Want: 50%
Normally I'd object to more Pokémon on the roster but I do quite like the second series of PMD games and would appreciate an acknowledgement in Smash. Want would probably go even higher when I get to playing the game all the way through someday.

Gen 8 mon: 28.29%
100 characters x5

 

[Sari]

Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon)

Chance: 0.5%
Whether it's due to a lack of interest in the series or some legal issues with Chunsoft, the Pokémon Mystery Dungeon series has been ignored constantly throughout the Smash Bros games (unless I'm mistaken there hasn't been a single PMD reference ever in Smash). I don't think we'll be getting any Pokemon DLC at all and even if we were someone from Gen VIII would probably have priority. Grovyle's last major appearance in a PMD game was nearly a decade ago (not counting his Super MD cameo or random other Grovyles) so I don't see any reason why Sakurai would want to revisit those games. Even when looking at just Gen III, Grovyle would have to compete with Blaziken not to mention his more popular and evolved form Sceptile.

Want: 5%
There are a ton of other Pokemon I'd rather see such as Decidueye (RIP) or Blaziken to name a few. I'd also prefer Sceptile as I feel he'd be able to offer more over his pre-evolved form. Only reason I'd kind of want Grovyle is so we could get this song into Smash.

Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon chance prediction: 12.74%

Nominations:
Andy (Advance Wars) x5

 

[DaUsername]

Cooler than Sceptile
Chance: 0.1%
It's not from the most recent gen and it isn't super popular. Especially due to it's final evolution having much more demand (mainly doe to people looking at patterns that weren't there). And PMD doesn't help at all due to Smash completely ignoring Pokémon spin-offs.
Want: 0%
As cool as Grovyle is, Pokémon doesn't need any more characters. Let some smaller series have a chance for once.

Gen VIII Prediction: 15%
Noms: Erdrick x5