Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

You all do know how big Fate and FGO are right?

In Japan, sure. Anywhere else tho, you're gonna need to show me some numbers.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Nero

Chance: 5%
Before Artoria? I can acknowledge that she's the second most popular Saber in Fate, but she's not the one who inspired its sameface epidemic. She could technically sneak in as a Saber alt/echo if Saber actually gets in, I'd have to admit, but she's not going to get into Smash by herself.

We could speak about the chances of Fate getting a Smash character in the first place, but that's best saved for Saber discussions, seeing as she's just that much likelier to get in compared to everyone else.

Want: 1%
Behold the amorality of historical revisionism. Behold its flagrant complicity in Japan's never-ending hunger for waifus.


Prediction:
Reimu: 15%

Nominations
Hat Kid x5

 

[CureParfait]

In Japan, sure. Anywhere else tho, you're gonna need to show me some numbers.

FGO alone had 3 million+ downloads for the English version of it, which is fairly big for a mobile game. It also has grossed over 2 billion USD.

 

[shocktarts17]

Don't have long so gonna drop a quick abstain and nominate Ravio x5

 

[ZoonBraidli]

Pauline:

Chance - 3%
I would be...very surprised if she made the roster. Iconic, yeah certainly. She was in Brawl and Smash 4 as a stage prop I see her reprising that role in the background when the inevitable New Donk City stage has the Odyssey theme song.

Want - 15%
Not particularly interesting character or concept. If she made it in then that means Sakurai did something quite fascinating and imaginative to put her in. That's my sole reason and it is hypothetical.

Captain Toad:

Chance - 20%
Pretty much on the same boat as Bandana Dee for me. Based on smash 4 newcomers he lacks the tools to be an inspired addition. Toads are however easily recognizable.so there is always a chance.

Want - 30%
Never cared for Toad but the Captain Toad game was a decently big hit and deserves something. Albeit I sense a stage more than anything else.

Takamaru prediction: 46.5%
Noms: Toadette x2, Black Shadow x1, Character Trailers x2

Piranha Plant:
Chance- 100%
Want- 0%

 

[RealPokeFan11]

I was half tempted to make this a double day with Saber, but I felt that she deserved her own day. Just gonna say again people sleeping hard on Fate in general, and this is from someone that is not even a big Fate fan. You all do know how big Fate and FGO are right?

I think it's a good idea to pair Reaper and Tracer together for a double day since they are both from the same game, and Tracer actually has a decent shot.

Piranha Plant:
Chance- 100%
Want- 0%

Today's day is Nero Claudius, not Piranha Plant's.

 

[Wyoming]

Piranha Plant:
Chance- 100%
Want- 0%

Yes.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Piranha Plant:
Chance- 100%
Want- 0%

Kirby:
Chance- 100%
Want- 100%

Bit of a slow day huh...

 

[Deleted member]

MY ROMAN EMPEROR CAN’T BE THIS CUTE

Chance :
Nero is the Red Saber from the Fate series of VNs, manga and anime. She, much like her real-life counterpart, was the 5th emperor of Rome, notorious for her arrogance and tyranny. Although I can’t say I remember Nero having particularly large boobs. After her suicide, she becomes a Saber-class servant to serve her master, the protagonist of the Fate/EX series although her pride makes her difficult to deal with at first. To clarify, Fate started as a visual novel so it would count as a videogame franchise. Nero is certainly one of the more popular Fate characters, with her ranking as number 7th most popular girl in an official poll conducted in 2017. She has quite a bit of fan-art and has had numerous alts released in Fate/Grand Order. This starts to mean something when you consider that Fate GO has grossed over $2.6 billion dollars as of December 2018, and has consistently been in the top 10 highest grossing games on the Japanese App Store charts for at least 2 years now. It’s essentailly what Pokemon GO was in August 2016 except it’s managed to retain its popularity. The game was even released on the US Android store in June 2017 and has reached over 2 million downloads there. The game’s big. Nintendo might want to capatalise on that massive success in their home country and include a Fate character in Smash. It’s sure to make a ton of money in Japan at least, and Fate as a gacha and anime has found success here in the West too. However, why would they pick Nero? Among the Fate characters, she’s definitely the not the No. 1 most popular character, and if you were to pick a Fate character it would be most sensible to include the very popular and recognisable mascot in Blue Saber (better known as just Saber or King Arthur). Nero didn’t even debut until Fate Extra. She’s popular sure, but she still didn’t manage to reach the top 5 most popular girls in the poll I mentioned earlier. She seems more Mii costume or Assist Trophy material based on her popularity. Even then, I doubt Nintendo would want to include a Fate character anyways. Fate GO is published by Sony and directly profits them. Nintendo has stocks in Cygames, the makers of another popular gacha in Granblue. It seems more logical to promote the game you’re invested in rather than the game published by a competitor. While you can bring up Snake, Cloud and Joker, none of those games were straight-up published by Sony except FF7 in Western regions, and Fate GO is a gacha meaning it’s still a current-release that is still making a ton of money. I’m bringing up Fate GO mainly because it has significantly contributed to Fate’s popularity and is still very popular in Japan. also has minimal history with Nintendo and originally started as a h-game, which muddies things a bit. While Fate has some seen success in the West, it’s nowhere near the level it is in Japan and might not be particularly appealing here. The only way I can see Nero getting in is if she comes as an echo for Blue Saber just to have some extra fan service and make the deal more appealing, and I’ve already explained why I don’t think a Fate character is very likely.
3%

Want :
From what little I have tried of the Fate series, I haven’t particularly liked it. The premise has always struck me as being pretty weird, I’ve never been a really huge fan of VNs and I don’t like gacha. From what I’ve looked into, the moveset potential for Nero is certainly there but I’m not sure I can say I find it super interesting. A Fate character as a whole doesn’t really interest me, and certainly not Nero. On the plus, I don’t hate her design, and I find the idea of the actual Nero Claudius technically getting into Smash funny.
15%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Piranha Plant:
Chance- 100%
Want- 0%

100% agree with you, but we’re rating Nero Claudius today.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

This thread keeps forgetting to give me alerts...

Anyway:

Rule 63 Waifu Roman Emperor(Empress?)? Who TF Even Thought Of This?!

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

So, the character is the Roman emperor Nero. But genderbent. And drawn as an anime waifu. Chronologically placed with King Arthur. Who is also genderbent. And both wear anachronistic ballgowns. To go swordfighting. But you can still see their panties.

Just one question - how many drugs do you need to be on to dream this concept up? And I'm reasonably sure I don't even have the weirdest parts of this.

Anyway, (s)he isn't even the main character of the series, which is hitting the same "obscure everywhere but Japan" issue we've had before. That means that this character would have a hard time selling in non-Japanese regions, so I don't thing there's value in making this character. I think this is the very definition of Widget series, and as such I don't need it in Smash. Even if Fate did get into Smash, it's not getting two characters, so Arthur (Artura?) will be first and only. And that won't change the fact that most people will say "Who tf is this?"

Nom: More DLC x5

 

[Artix]

Fate GO is published by Sony and directly profits them.

Actually, they can just ignore FGO since there are other Fate games out there not published by Sony, including the original VN. Even if they do, it's not like Sony would disagree or anything since Fate/Extella Link contains FGO characters...and this game is having a Switch release this month.

 

[Nemuresu]

Rome burner shifted blame on Christians now made into anime:
Chance: 0%-You know, even if we were rating Saber, I would've used this rate. Why? First, because as far as I know, Aniplex isn't even a video game company (I'm sure there was some image explaining the whole situation on 4chan, but I can't find it for the life of me); then, there's the fact that she's not even a main character ("yeah, let's get Iori into Smash before Kyo is in" kind of deal), and third, there's the fact that having Touhou/Fate on Smash is kind of a meme around certain places, heck someone on /v/ made a whole compilation on Japanese posts talking about that and the November Direct characters, it's funny:

Spoiler: Spoiler because the image is big and because there's some explicit language inside

Want: Abstain-I don't like abstaining. I would make some research on her, but I got compromises today, so I won't be able to tackle on it. Needless to say that I so do not have any interest on VN characters.
Nominations: Dante x5

 

[Deleted member]

Actually, they can just ignore FGO since there are other Fate games out there not published by Sony, including the original VN. Even if they do, it's not like Sony would disagree or anything since Fate/Extella Link contains FGO characters...and this game is having a Switch release this month.

I’m aware. I mentioned Fate GO as it’s one of the biggest games in the franchise, it’s still ongoing and it’s still making a ton of money. My point was that a Fate character getting in would directly prormote fate go, which is published by Sony meaning it directly profits them, and Nintendo has their own alternative in Granblue. That isn’t something you can say for Persona 5 or even Final Fantasy 7.

 

[PapillonXtreme]

First, because as far as I know, Aniplex isn't even a video game company

The Fate series is actually owned by Type-Moon, not Aniplex.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Nero Claudius

Chance: 0.01%

-Literally who?
-And even then, Blue Knight Saber is the face of the franchise so she would be the rep instead.

Want: 0%

-Not attached to Fate
-You have the more iconic Saber.

Reimu Prediction: 17.66%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Double abstain on Nero, I really don't know enough to rate.

Noms: Grovyle x2, Maxwell x3

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over.

Rate Reimu Hakurei from Touhou. Predict whoever GoodGrief741 says after noms are done.

Also I am gonna say it now, if you post “literally who” in your post unironically I will not count it today. Not only would I say Touhou is not a literally who but there is such a thing as research.

 

[Jomosensual]

Nero

Chance: 10 - If we get a Fate rep I think it will be Saber. Also don't think he had a lot of demand and by a quick google search I don't see any reason Nero would be included in the game. With those likely being the biggest reasons someone will get in the DLC this time around I think that cuts Neros chances pretty well

Want - Abstain. Never played any Fate games and never heard of the character until now.

Noms:
Cranky Kong x 5

 

[DaUsername]

Man, I need to stop forgetting about these.
And looking at who we're rating, I'm starting to wish I forgot about today, too.

The Less Cool Nero
Chance and Want: Double Zeroes
First of all, she isn't even the main character, so that's already an automatic 0 chance. Second of all, does this character/series have any real reason to be in Smash? You could say "oh it's popular" or "it made a lot of money", but characters usually have more of a reason for their inclusion than that. If being from a big game/series was all you needed to do to get in, the roster would probably look more like PlayStation All-Stars.
I could go on for longer, but the day's probably already over at this point, so I'll just get to the other stuff.

Reimu prediction: 2%
Noms: Erdrick x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Literally who?

Just kidding

Chance: 10%?
Not great considering Reimu herself is an unknown on most places of the globe. However, Touhou is a known property amongst gamers everywhere, and its importance transcends the indie genre. It’s also one of the go-to examples of the shoot-em-up, and one of the few with identifiable characters that could make a crossover (other than her I can only think, off the top of my head, of Vic Viper, the thing from Fantasy Zone and Space Harrier kid). For an indie rep, she has more merits than any other (barring Steve if you count him, which I don’t because ew). Still, even if Touhou is known, it’s not a guaranteed sell by a long shot.

Want:
I won’t give a score because I don’t know where I stand. Despite loving me some Touhou, I was always reluctant towards Reimu in Smash. I feel like I’ve softened a bit in that regard, and might even like it, but I dunno yet.

Noms: let me see how the top 7 shakes out.

Edit: I got a plan so Prof HectorX5, one last time

 

[Icedragonadam]

Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 25%

-She's undoubtly one of the most notable Indie characters.
-Touhou has a huge following around the world(most of it in Japan).
-She also represents a genre(Bullet Hell) not yet represented with a character yet.
-Unfortunately she's going against the likes of Steve who's rumored by a few dataminers.

Want: 90%

-Touhou is a fun series.
-Using Reimu's Bullets like in the Touhou fighting games would be really fun.

Reaper Prediction: 0.14%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5

 

[CureParfait]

Reimu

Chance- 0%
Reimu is a decently known icon in the bullet hell genre for sure. But the biggest roadblock she has is that Zun, creator of Touhou is pretty hesitant of putting Touhou in big commercial products like Smash.

Want- 90%
Touhou characters in general is definitely in my top tiers of want and I think Reimu is a good character to represent the bullet hell genre.

 

[Jomosensual]

Reimu

Chance: 20 - I've heard of the games before, but somehow didn't know who Reimu was, which feels like an issue if shes going to get into Smash. Also an indie character, which drags down her chances a bit more because I dont think we're getting any indie characters in Smash this time around.

Want - 20 - Like I said above, never played the games and didn't know who the character was before now, but I think that a shoot em up type character could be fun I guess.

Noms:
Cranky Kong x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

January 21: Reaper (Overwatch)
January 22: Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon)
January 23: Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon
January 24: Concept: More DLC
January 25: Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass
January 26: Sephiroth (Final Fantasy)
January 27: Concept: SNK rep

Sephiroth overtook SNK rep at the last second, so whoever it was that didn’t want 4 concepts in a row, here you go.

Not much else to say about the schedule, so I guess I’ll mention how surprised I was to see how many people share my feelings about Fate. I’m kinda glad, to be honest.

The new top seven consists of Ravio, Dark Matter, Professor Hector, Ezio Auditore da Firenze, Dante, and a tie between Andy and Shy Guy.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Nero Claudius pre-Reimu Hakurei

Ravio x185
Dark Matter x180
Professor Hector x178
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x170
Dante x160
Andy (Advance Wars) x150
Shy Guy x150

150 - 101

Concept: World of Light expansion x145
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x145
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x145
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x135
Kat & Ana x135
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x134
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Poochy x125
Ryota Hayami x125
Sly Cooper x125
Concept: Style Savvy rep x125
Concept: Boss Rush x120
Q*Bert x116
Amy Rose x115
Vaati x115
Brash the Bear x115
Hat Kid x115
Magikarp x114
Cranky Kong x110
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101


100 - 51

Tracer x100
Monster Hunter x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Boss: Kracko x85
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x70
9-Volt x69
Spyro x62


50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Ryu Hayabusa x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Noctis Lucis Caelum x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Frogger x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Reporter & Wrestler x10
[Rerate] 2B x10
Yuri Lowell x10
Adeleine (Kirby) x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Saber (Fate) x5
Tetromino x5
[Rerate] Erdrick x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Ryu Hayabusa wall jumps up to 25 noms.

Today’s new nominee is a Rerate of Erdrick, with 5 noms.

 

[Deleted member]

Seems an interesting thread so I'll join

Nero
Chance 1%
If Fate is getting a rep, Artoria would be the frontrunner considering she is the face of the franchise and she is also a relatively popular character from VN. Can't imagine Nero outside a color alt from Saber or an Echo.

Want 0%
While I've tried some of their games like Extella and watched the first anime, I'm not much of a Fate fan. But from what I've played, I feel that Archer(Nameless) or Saber(Artoria) represent the franchise better.

Reimu
Chance: 5%
She is surprisingly popular within the indie scene in Japan, and some of the Tohou games have appeared in the west and at retail stores which I would think makes it seem the franchise is expanding. Plus she is one of the most notorious female indie characters. Main issue with her is that I don't know how her franchise in the Japanese indie scene would translate to getting into a franchise like Smash and from my little knowledge of Tohou, it seems to have loads and loads of characters which makes it more difficult.

Want: Abstain
I abstain since I don't have too much knowledge of the franchise, and also I'm not much of a fan of having indies as playable reps so it would be slightly biased against her by default

I nominate Ryota from Wave Race x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

EDIT: Meant to edit. Delete this.

 

[Artix]

Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 20%
Reimu is one of the more likely indie candidate in Smash, now that both Shovel Knight and Shantae are out of the way. Touhou had some recognition not only in Japan, but in other parts of the world as well. However, given how indie characters ended up in Smash, I don't think we'll see any indie character playable in Smash. Besides, ZUN might be more hesitant on letting Reimu in Smash and the fact that despite it's recognition all over the world, many people would not know who the character is. Like Fate, Touhou has been a meme pick in Japan, even to the point of hating the idea of having Reimu and Saber in Smash.

Want: 85%
Eh, why not. I have played some Touhou games in my spare time and I kinda like Reimu myself. She would definitely be interesting to see in Smash since she represents the bullet hell genre. She may not be my most wanted pick, but I kinda wanted to see her in Smash, alongside her fellow meme pick Saber.

Reaper Prediction: 5.33%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5

 

[Sari]

Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 10%
Touhou is pretty big in Japan so there is always a chance especially in a post-Joker world. The main things holding her back is her general third party competition, her being an indie (I don't think indies in general have the greatest chances), and apparently the creator of Touhou is hesitant about putting her in big projects like Smash.

Want: 25%
Never played any of the Touhou games but she seems alright and I think she's at least somewhat worthy of a spot considering how big Touhou is. I feel that she could be enjoyable and help to represent the bullet hell genre.

Reaper chance prediction: 0.82% (I don't see this happening as long as Tracer and D. Va are around)

Nominations:
Andy (Advance Wars) x5 (once Andy is locked into the schedule I honestly have no idea who to nominate)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Sakurai plz add raymooooo
Chance: 0.1%
Yeah yeah, "big in Japan" but how popular is this franchise in the west really? There might be a good amount of people who heard of it but how many of them are legitimate fans? Hell, Fate probably has more. And just like with fate I doubt the demographics overlap. I don't think the majority of people who bought Smash are also Touhou fans. The only game from that series on a Nintendo system is a fan-made spinoff game on the Switch which alot of people don't even know the existence of. It also cameos alongside Kirby in a JP exclusive 3DS rhythm game but I don't see that making a difference.

Want: 0%
5000 year old lollies with universal power fighting eachother isn't really my thing. Probably one of my least wanted third-parties honestly.

Reaper: 0.17%
100 characters x5

 

[Lasatar]

My Most Wanted:

Chance: Okay, I'm going to give my reasoning before my score itself, since if you saw it beforehand, you'd probably laugh at me for being too optimistic. However, I've done (years of) research on this topic, and I'd like to take you through my thought process. Firstly, let's look at the basic facts. First, what is Touhou? Touhou, or more correctly, The Touhou Project, is a series of independently developed shoot'em'ups created by Team Shanghai Alice, for which the sole member is Junya Ota, more commonly known by his Alias ZUN. The Touhou Project spans a whopping twenty-seven games, which includes fifteen mainline shoot'em'ups, a breakout style game, six fighting games (which were developed as a collaboration between Team Shanghai Alice and Twilight Frontier), and another five side shoot'em'ups, each with a special gimmick to them. The series has been around since 1996, where the very first game in the series, The Highly Responsive to Prayers, was shown off for the first time.

Touhou may have started off small, but it wasted no time becoming big. After ZUN stopped making games for the Japanese Computer known as the PC-98 and started to make games compatible with Windows, a cult following began to grow in its home country of Japan. Within a number of years, it had grown to absolutely massive proportions. Pretty much everybody who was into games or anime had probably at least heard of The Touhou Project. There was even an entire convention dedicated to the series. This didn't go unnoticed among the west either. Many people got their hands on copies of the game, and started making patches to translate it into English or other languages. While this did mean that western Touhou fans needed to aquire their copies of the games illegally, ZUN was cool about it, saying that he just wanted to make sure that as many people as possible could get a chance to experience his work. From that point onwards, the series has continued to grow. It has spawned thousands upon thousands of fan made doujin material, ranging from artwork to games to even entire anime series. You'd be hard pressed to find another series with this much fan-made merch. The series has even been making itself more of a presence in the west as of recently, with several official games being released on Steam, and no signs of stopping any time soon.

But what does this have to do with Smash? Well, I was just getting to that. The first paragraph was to just explain what the series was, and the second one was to explain how big it is. If Reimu counts as a third party character, then Sakurai's rule about a third party character needing to carry some kind of history with them certainly applies. And while in the west, this is a bit debatable, since the Touhou fandom in the west, while large, is very much underground and doesn't make itself known unless it has a reason to. However, in Japan, there is no contest that Reimu carries history with her. More than Twenty years of history. She's a crucial part to the indie genre, since she came from a time where indies weren't exactly the biggest thing, and yet has still persevered all this time. There's not a whole lot of reason to not include her at this point. Sure, Smash panders to the west a fair bit at times, but why can't it pander to Japan as well? Fire Emblem was a Japan exclusive when Marth and Roy were added in Melee. Mother 3 has never been localised to this day, and yet Lucas is in Smash. Why can't Reimu be added as well? Well, I don't know. She just wasn't. Perhaps it was because there's never been an official Touhou game on a Nintendo system? She's made appearances on Nintendo before, but always unofficially, such as in a fangame. And while that might change in the future, when it comes to Smash, with four more characters on their way for the fighter pass, she has a chance again. And let me tell you, that her chances are better than ever.

Who was the first character in the fighter pass? Joker. And what's Joker got to do with anything? Well, he starred in the very popular Persona 5, which was released in 2017. And get this: No mainline Persona game has appeared on a Nintendo system, least of all Persona 5. And while you may argue that Persona is just a spinoff of Shin Megami Tensei, which has its roots on Nintendo systems, the point still stands. There are tons of fan-made rules when it comes to Smash Newcomers. "All characters must be Nintendo property", oops, here's Snake and Sonic. "All characters must have appeared on a Nintendo system", oops, here's Cloud. "All characters must be from a series that has had at least one game on Nintendo", oops, here's Joker (sorta). "All characters must actually be a character", oops, here's freaking Piranha Plant!! My point being, that you can't determine a character's impossibility based on pre-existing patterns, since those patterns can be broken at any time. Which brings me to my next point:

SAKURAI IS NOT THE ONE CHOOSING THE DLC! Instead, Nintendo Employees get together a list of possible characters, Sakurai chooses five names off the list, and boom, those five characters are in Smash. So what would make a character likely to get on Nintendo's List? Well, duh, the characters that get Nintendo the most profit, of course! And how does Nintendo get money? By people buying their stuff, of course. Which means that they'd want to add characters that maximise the chances of as many people as possible buying as much stuff as possible. And let me tell you this: This means that everybody's gonna be from new franchises that have never been in Smash before, and more likely than not are gonna be third party. Let me provide an example: Say they were to add a popularly requested character such as Bandanna Dee. What would happen? Well, a few Smash fans would buy Bandanna Dee off of the fighter pass, that's what. But what if they were to add Joker (oh, yeah, they did, didn't they?)? Well, I'll tell you what would happen. People who bought Persona 5 and enjoyed it will hear news that Joker got into Smash, and there's a good chance that a lot of those people wouldn't have gotten Smash. So, they'll buy both Smash and Joker. Oh, but what if they don't even have a Switch? I mean, Persona 5 was never released on Switch, so there's a good chance that at least some of the fans wouldn't have a Switch. So, they'd buy a Switch, Smash, AND Joker. Can you see how that would be a little more profit for Nintendo? Oh, but they've just bought a Switch, haven't they? What's the point of buying a console for a single game and then leaving it on the shelf indefinitely? No, they'd buy more Switch games. The big stuff, like Mario Odyssey and Breath of the Wild, and anything else they're interested in. And before you know it, Nintendo has a whole new set of customers on their hands, who will buy stuff as they release it. Oh, and here's the genius part. Sakurai allowed people to buy the fighter pass before the characters were actually revealed. This way, many Smash fans will have already bought Joker and the rest of the DLC, even if they didn't actually want the characters in the pass. Too bad, they've already paid, and Nintendo gets money from both Persona fans and Smash fans. Absolute maximum $$$ for Nintendo. Case closed.

So, can you see what I mean? Reggie told us to expect more characters like Joker, which means that we can expect more characters in a similar situation to Joker. Little history with Smash or even Nintendo in general, but have a pretty big fanbase regardless. And Reimu fits that situation like a glove. The Touhou fandom is absolutely massive even if it is rather underground, and it doesn't overlap with the Smash fanbase a whole lot, and since none of the games are on Nintendo, how many Touhou fans would you expect to have a Switch? Adding Reimu to Smash would get Nintendo more $$$ than you can poke a stick at, which makes it hard for me to believe that she wasn't on Nintendo's list of names. So, it's just up to Sakurai to have chosen her. Come on, Sakurai. Don't let me down.

"But wait, Lasatar! What about getting the rights to using Reimu in the first place?" I say to you, that ZUN is just one guy. It wouldn't take much to get the rights from him, especially since it'd expose the series to more people than ever before, opening the door for a ton of new potential fans. And not only this, but in an interview with ZUN in 2016, ZUN actually mentions that he wants to become more friendly with Nintendo. Not a bad thing when it comes to Reimu's chances in Smash, ain't it?

And with all that said, I would like to place Reimu's chances for Smash at a very generous 50%. Here's hoping that she pulls through.

Want: Can I just say ∞% and be done with it? I'm already tired from writing that massive wall of text. No? Okay, 100% then.

 

[Neosonic97]

Somebody fetch me my Youkai-beating stick.

Reimu "Shrine Maiden of Paradise" Hakurei
Chance: 35%
I'm not being as generous as Lasatar, but I DO think that people are SERIOUSLY underrating Reimu's chances. Touhou Project isn't just 'popular' in Japan: It's a cultural phenomenon over there. It even has its own dedicated convention. It's got the greatest legacy of all Indie games, so at BARE MINIMUM, she has a much better chance than Shantae, Quote and even Shovel Knight do at getting in, especially given how Solid Snake, Cloud Strife and Joker pretty much tore down the wall of needing real appearances on Nintendo Consoles. There's a pretty convincing post in the Reimu Support thread that details a lot of reasons why Reimu is more likely than most people here think. Lastly, personal gripe here: I think the 'It's not relevant in the west!' argument is stupid. Going by that logic, we shouldn't even HAVE the Belmonts, considering those guys have only ever been popular in the west (Let's be real here: The ONLY Castlevania to ever have any real success in Japan [or even any non-US Territories, for that matter] was Symphony of the Night), to say nothing about Ness, Lucas, or any Fire Emblem character. Even with her lack of official console appearances, it should be telling that Touhou Kobuto V, a low-quality fangame, outsold almost the entire market of the eShop during the week of its release, with the only game it failed to outsell being SUPER MARIO ODYSSEY of all things. It should be telling that, in a period where Witcher 3 was dominant on Steam, it IMMEDIATELY had competition from Hidden Star in Four Seasons (Touhou 16). There's also the soundtrack factor: Touhou's soundtrack is godly, even to the point where I'd say that the Castlevania tracks would struggle to contest that fact.

Want: 2700% (That's 100% times the number of Official Touhou games)
The short answer: Reimu is, and has been, my most wanted character since Ultimate's announcement. ALL OF MY YES.

The long answer: Ever since I got into Touhou, shortly before Ultimate's announcement, I've felt increasingly sure of the fact that Reimu would fit in perfectly into the Smash series, while contributing a lot to the game, be it by bringing the works of art known as the Touhou soundtrack into the game, a fighter who revolves around projectiles and aerial combat, her unique Spell Cards, and so much more. Reimu has been my most wanted character for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate for a long time, and in fact, my very first action upon joining these forums was to pledge support for the Hakurei Maiden. She's not my favourite Touhou character (That'd be the other main character, Marisa. Fite me), but she is damn well my first choice for Smash, and overall, THE best Indie Rep choice for Smash. I'm not even saying that ironically- for an Indie Rep, Reimu is miles better than Shovel Knight, Quote and Shantae.

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5

 

[PK-remling Fire]

The Shrine Maiden of Paradise: Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 3%
Knowing how Smash Bros tends to either put in either easily recognizable or characters from upcoming games in, it's hard to believe that Nintendo would consider a character that's from a cult but somewhat niche series like Touhou. Also I feel like ZUN would have some kind of issue with it too.

Want: 100%
I played a ton of Touhou over the years and it's a series near and dear to me. I'd be extremely hyped (if not very confused) if Reimu actually got in.

Nom: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x5

 

[Ridrool64]

The Mario of Bullet Hell, if Mario didn't have nearly as much popularity overseas.

Chance: I'm seeing a 30% for Reimu. She's unexpected and brings something totally new to the table, being a Bullet Hell character. That being said, she's got Arle's second biggest issue (though not her biggest, Reimu has no competition as far as I can tell), that aside from internet culture (which isn't nearly as big as our Echo Chambers make it out to be) Touhou isn't very big beyond its home country. I'm not sure what else she's lacking, though. She is a girl, and girls sell more in lots of circles.

Want: My experience with Touhou is very small, and normally I would abstain, but after Reimu there'd be very little arguments against Arle, especially since Reimu comes from games with limited controls. For helping Arle, I'll give her a 40% Want, and hey more genres in Smash is always better. Especially since Nintendo doesn't have their own Bullet Hell to put in first.

Sly Cooper x 5. Reaper isn't Tracer so he should have 0% chance, but I'll be generous and give him 0.10% for my prediction.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Reimu

Chance: 20%
Compared to plenty of other game franchises, Touhou has some strong history going for it. For one, it's so popular in Japan that it's practically a cultural cornerstone, not unlike Dragon Quest or Shin Megami Tensei. It's older than most people assume, and certainly more pervasive, with no signs of letting up. Smash Bros. recognizing it would be worth a significant amount in the home country.

So why hasn't it ever really been a forerunner in the first place? Well for a start, I'd say it's because it existed as an independent PC franchise for much of its lifespan, which was fairly distant from consoles and the developments there at the time. How many games can we say were inspired by Touhou's actual gameplay and not its characters? It's a distinction that I believe Sakurai recognizes, and when it comes to the influence of bullet hells in the complete history of video gaming, things aren't exactly as impressive as Touhou's history.

Want: 15%
She'd be a pick for the sake of representing a wider reach to me. That's about as much as I can say about her without running off about the differences between substance and surface appeal.


Prediction:
Reaper; 0.4%

Nominations
Hat Kid x5

 

[nintenplayer]

The Shrine Maiden of Paradise: Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 25%.
Pros: She's actually more likely than how people may assume. Her franchise, Touhou, has been the center of the Japanese Otaku Communities alongside with Vocaloid and Fate for more than a decade, hence she is widely recognizable in Japan. She is, in my humble opinion, one of the most likely indie character to get in Smash.
And its internet dominance is huge (well, it used to be). I'm willing to bet, that if you've been around the internet for some time, you HAVE encountered some sort of Touhou related stuff without realizing it at least once. It's the type of thing that makes you go; "Oh so THAT was Touhou?"
She most definitely qualifies as a character with a great moveset potentials. Danmaku is something that was never represented in Smash before, and the Spell Cards can really bring in some interesting mechanics into her gameplay.
Also, this is something not many people have been discussing about, but imagine all the creative spirits battle her inclusion may bring to us. One of the best things about Touhou is characters, and the Spirit Battles will really make them shine.
And not to mention, she will bring in some amazing soundtracks into the game. One of the things Touhou is best known for.

Cons: Her obscurity in the western audience is a huge detractor. I am fully aware that she will be a very controversial pick for many western fans, and it might lead to more toxicity in an already toxic enough community.
Also, unfortunately, unlike Fate and Vocaloid, Touhou's fame in Japan has been.... dying out, for the last few years. While Fate adapted well into the big mobile market industry of Japan, Touhou failed to do so, and its popularity is... admittedly in a clear downswing. Still popular nonetheless, but not as much as it was in the late 2000s to early 2010s.

Want: 100%
Touhou holds a very special place in my heart. I've gotten into the series relatively late, but I immediately got sucked in, to its vast variety of characters, personalities, plots, addictive gameplay, amazing music, and a marvelous cinematic universe called "Gensokyo" where it all resides in. And I would absolutely love to see, how Sakurai represents this amazingness his own way. I want to see how a Sakurai-fied Reimu would look like. I want to see how a Koishi Spirit battle would look like. I want to see how a Reimu Amiibo would look like. There is just so much potential that lies ahead that I cannot be not excited for as a fan.

It is easy to shrug her off as another "anime loli to please weebs", but she really isn't. I know I may come off as all defensive and delusional for saying this, but it really makes me hurt as a fan to see people undermine this character a little too much. I'm not in any way forcing people to be excited about her, I'm just saying I've seen some people respond to these kinds of support for minor characters with a bit of hostility, and I just hope that kind of toxic discourse ends.

 

[Deleted member]

I also can't say anything.


Abstain (Srry Freddi Fish (and Luther), but I do know and think I can fairly judge the next 7 atleast)

 

[RealPokeFan11]

That one anime character
Chance: 3%
Want: 0%
I rated this character a while back. Here was what I said:

YAY ANOTHER ANIME CHARACTER! Wait a minute...

Chance: 0.5%
Want: 0%
Sorry @Sid-cada

Reimu is a character from the Touhou Project series that is solely eastern based, but unlike "Windmill" up above, she is super successful and has a massive following in her region. The main HUGE problem is that Reimu is extremely obscure in the west, and while Japanese fans will be super excited, western fans will be left scratching their heads as they're wondering who this character is. I never knew of her existence until I saw @Billybae10K's RTC video with her in it. Now I will let him explain the rest about Reimu.

Go to 7:47 for Reimu

Predictions: Balloon Fighter 5%
Kyo Kusanagi 1%

Nominations: Xurkitree x5

My opinion for the most part is completely unchanged, but I increased her chance score to 3% because she is very successful and has a small fanbase in the west.

Edgelord: 1%
I'm almost done with the support thread, but I still need to do jabs grabs aerials etc. You can still view it tho because I posted it.

Magikarp x5

 

[Flyboy]

Reimu!
Chance: 25%
I really...don't know? Touhou is huge. It's been huge forever. I'd argue if there is a dedicated "Indy rep" spot in Smash the shortlist would have to be Touhou, Undertale, or Cave Story. That said, even as a "doujin series" there's a stigma where Touhou being in Smash could be seen as violating what makes Touhou...Touhou. I really feel like Touhou operates differently from other popular Indy titles and that makes it super up in the air for me and hard to even guess. But talk about name value!

Want: 75%
Uh, hell yeah dude. I'm not a Touhou superfan but I played and loved Embodiment of Scarlet Devil. Touhou IS the modern face of danmaku and shmups, and the series has a whole host of great characters and INCREDIBLE music. I'd love to use the shrine maiden's powers in Smash and the bullets to go with. There are a bunch of great Touhou fighting games out there, too, and that shows that characters from that series would easily be translatable into Smash.

Fun fact, there are actually several games featuring the Touhou characters on the Switch. I don't know how good they are but I'm hoping we get at least one mainline game (EoSD please!) eventually. Also, I fully admit that the Jeuxvideo "leak" made me want Reimu even more because my friends and I kept doing Xander Mobus impressions of him saying "REIMU!" and it's funny.

Also, seriously guys, the music. The music alone should make this a high want.

Nominations: Ryota Hayami x5

 

[AirMac1]

Abstaining because I don’t know anything about her.

9-volt x5