Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Tetrin]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 15%

Before you say "WHAT SHOVEL KNIGHT AND SHANTAE HAD BETTER CHANCES!!1!11!1 NO CHANCE1!11!!11" let me explain myself. Hollow Knight came out on the Switch last year and is the third best selling download only game as of late (13th of all time). The game is massive as it is, and received 4 DLC packs (2 of which were pretty big in and of themselves) that were entirely free. You may think this has nothing to with his chances in Smash, but the game is receiving ANOTHER DLC pack with Hornet being playable, and it is currently unspecified whether or not it will cost anything. His inclusion would undoubtedly be great promotion for the game. But of course, that's not the only reason I mentioned him here. I'd like to discuss why people are like "he's not best indie rep". First and foremost, generalizing inclusions to be representative of their respective genres is stupid. When Ryu and Simon were included, I don't remember them being reps for the fighting game genre or retro gaming. Indie isn't even a genre. Calling something an "indie rep" doesn't make much sense since it's just as third party as any other character. Comparing it to Shovel Knight and Shantae, who are made by entirely separate teams with different guidelines and policies, is like comparing Square to any other company. Dealing with Square is notoriously not as easy as anyone else, as you can tell by the Final Fantasy's expansive music in the game. Hollow Knight would represent his own game, not indie gaming. Admittedly it's hard for me to gauge potential, so I may have overestimated here, but calling characters from different companies competition isn't well thought out imo.

Want: 100%

Hollow Knight is a masterpiece of a game with fluid controls and overflowing content, all for a generous price of $14.99. Hollow Knight has tremendous moveset potential implementing his soul gauge, healing capabilities, and in-game dashes and pogos to make for a very well rounded fighter. He's my second most wanted of all time, and I can't recommend this game to anyone who sees this enough times for how truly magical it is. The game is definitely one of a kind imo, and if I had to pick a stage, I'd probably go with the Birthplace. Hornet would even work perfectly as an assist trophy. All in all, Hollow Knight is something special, and the knight we play as would be such a unique addition to the roster.

 

[shocktarts17]

First and foremost, generalizing inclusions to be representative of their respective genres is stupid. When Ryu and Simon were included, I don't remember them being reps for the fighting game genre or retro gaming. Indie isn't even a genre. Calling something an "indie rep" doesn't make much sense since it's just as third party as any other character. Comparing it to Shovel Knight and Shantae, who are made by entirely separate teams with different guidelines and policies, is like comparing Square to any other company. Dealing with Square is notoriously not as easy as anyone else, as you can tell by the Final Fantasy's expansive music in the game. Hollow Knight would represent his own game, not indie gaming.

I think this is an interesting point but I don't think I agree with your conclusion. The big reason that Indie are treated different from other 3rd parties is the difference in "power" coming to the negotiation table. When a company like Nintendo goes to Sony/Sega/SE/Microsoft they are coming as more-or-less equals who both have some weight they can throw around for negotiations. When Nintendo goes to a small Indie team they have all the power. Because of this an Indie rep is considered an "elevation" of said character, bringing them to the big leagues next to Mario. So while it's true that each Indie company is different, the reality is that most Indie companies can probably be all lumped together because they all share similar circumstances when it comes to Smash. This is actually why I think it's silly that people try to lump Minecraft into the "Indie" picture because Microsoft owns them now and they can negotiate as equals with Nintendo.

 

[Flyboy]

The Knight
Chance: 10%
First, the things working against him: Shovel Knight, Sans, Quote, and Steve could be "competition" if there is a single dedicated "Indy rep" spot. He's a newer character. That's it. Considering I'd say Nintendo has given The Knight as much of a push as Shovel Knight at the very least with how much they've highlighted the game in Directs (and even praised it as a highlight of the Switch in every big Nindies direct) it seems to me that Nintendo knows they have a special game on their hands that is specifically crushing all expectations on Switch. So, while the competition may be stiff, it wouldn't surprise me to at least see some spirits in a future update. Or at least more focus outside of Smash.

Want: 80%
Yes! Hollow Knight as mentioned is a game that just shines on Switch and the dark aesthetic, beautiful worlds and music, and appealing design of the little Knight would be an awesome addition. My friends and I even had a for-fun "draft" if Nintendo were to release Smash today with a whole new roster based on modern times and I immediately drafted the Knight. He absolutely should be in the conversation if you look at the games Nintendo loves to promote and their new partnership with Indy creators. Knight and Madeline from Celeste are two big deals for Nintendo that exemplify that partnership perfectly with a modern lens just as Shovel Knight did before and Quote did even before that. Plus, the moveset potential! Wow!

If you've never played Hollow Knight, give it a shot on the eShop or check out the amazing speedrun from this year's AGDQ and see for yourself a wonderful Smash-ready character that is going to join the Indy world's biggest names sooner rather than later.

Nominations: Ryota Hayami x5

 

[Deleted member]

THE DARK SOULS OF INSECTOIDS

Chance:
The Knight is the main character of the Kickstarter indie game Hollow Knight released back in early 2017, having been ported to the switch on June 13th. He’s an insect-like creature who explores the vast kingdom of Hallownest to uncover just why the kingdom fell, and what remains of its inhabitants. Hollow Knight released to critical acclaim and sold rather well, currently being the most downloaded eshop exclusive games on the switch, despite being ported 6 months ago. The game’s pretty clearly got success, and the developers would likely be easy to negotiate with. The game was also voted as the most recommended eshop game of July 2018, so it likely isn’t a failure over in Japan. However, despite being one of the most popular indie games of the past two years, it’s ultimately still an indie game. Indie games are inherently going to be smaller and less significant releases than most unless they absolutely blow up like Undertale, and even Shovel Knight and Shanate, the two indie series we already have had large support among fans in the ballot days. And Shovel Knight itself has seen more success than Hollow Knight has, albeit it was released 3 years earlier, yet he still couldn’t be playable. The game only released in 2017, so depending on when DLC was chosen it might not have even been out by the time it was decided, and the game still feels too new to have really made a mark. After all, it’s not even a series yet. Given the direction DLC seems to be heading, I really gotta wonder how big of an inclusion the Knight would even be. Negotiationg with an Australian company might be a bit difficult too. I guess you could say The Knight’s chances are pretty void.
5%

Want:
For the record, I have played, beaten and nearly 100%ed Hollow Knight. Pretty great game btw, you should pick it up. I do think that the first indie game character in smash should be Quote or Reimu, simply due to their legacy. The thing is, the Knight doesn’t seem like he’d have a super interesting moveset to me. Almost his entire kit is just basic nail slashes and magic spells. Unless they did something REALLY crazy with the charm system and his void powers, I’m not sure the idea of the Knight in smash really appeals to me. If we were to get Hollow Knight representation in Smash, I’d prefer if it was a Hornet assist trophy. She could jump across the screen swinging her needle and setting up spike traps. That’d be cool. Or maybe have a stage based on the City of Tears with the NPCs popping up in the background.
Besides, why have the coward Knight in smash when you could instead have THE ALMIGHTY ZOTE?
45%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Tetrin]

I think this is an interesting point but I don't think I agree with your conclusion. The big reason that Indie are treated different from other 3rd parties is the difference in "power" coming to the negotiation table. When a company like Nintendo goes to Sony/Sega/SE/Microsoft they are coming as more-or-less equals who both have some weight they can throw around for negotiations. When Nintendo goes to a small Indie team they have all the power. Because of this an Indie rep is considered an "elevation" of said character, bringing them to the big leagues next to Mario. So while it's true that each Indie company is different, the reality is that most Indie companies can probably be all lumped together because they all share similar circumstances when it comes to Smash. This is actually why I think it's silly that people try to lump Minecraft into the "Indie" picture because Microsoft owns them now and they can negotiate as equals with Nintendo.

I understand where you're coming from, but I respectfully disagree that this is an excuse to generalize a character an indie rep. Certain companies having less power in the industry doesn't really mean that their characters should be treated as such. Also, Nintendo having more power doesn't even guarantee a character's spot in the roster. If Nintendo went up to Team Cherry right now and said "We want Hollow Knight in Smash", they won't just be handed over the character on a silver platter. As long as the indie company has a decent of understanding of licensing (which they'd probably have to have in such a case), the odds are still in Team Cherry's favor. They are the ones who decide whether or not Nintendo can use their character, and although Nintendo can negotiate with them this next one, Team Cherry ultimately decides the price. Yes, you can refer to the Knight as an indie rep, since he would be the only character from an indie game in Smash, but it's an afterthought considering the series he represents would say "Hollow Knight". The series a character reps should always get priority over more broad classifications.

In any case, the topic isn't one with a set in stone answer, so I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree about the situation.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

First and foremost, generalizing inclusions to be representative of their respective genres is stupid. When Ryu and Simon were included, I don't remember them being reps for the fighting game genre or retro gaming. Indie isn't even a genre. Calling something an "indie rep" doesn't make much sense since it's just as third party as any other character. Comparing it to Shovel Knight and Shantae, who are made by entirely separate teams with different guidelines and policies, is like comparing Square to any other company. Dealing with Square is notoriously not as easy as anyone else, as you can tell by the Final Fantasy's expansive music in the game. Hollow Knight would represent his own game, not indie gaming. Admittedly it's hard for me to gauge potential, so I may have overestimated here, but calling characters from different companies competition isn't well thought out imo.

I agree with much of what shocktarts17 stated, but I have a few things to add.

Well, Ryu is indeed a rep from one of the most recognizable fighting game franchises and therefore a rep for fighting games. I mean you can even play Ryu with traditional 2D fighting-game inputs. Simon represents the other half of the genre "Metroid-vania" (which Hollow Knight also happens to be). To say they aren't representing a certain genre of games is not true.

Secondly, I don't think anyone here considers indie games a "genre." People tend to lump them all together because, being smaller, independent companies, they're not on the same level of notoriety as huge gaming giants such as Nintendo, Capcom, Square Enix, whoever. Even Nintendo tends to group them all together with their "Nindies" showcases. Every indie game fits into it's own genre obviously, same as how independent movies have their own genres. It's more of just a way to denote what isn't made by a major developer/studio. And the reality is, before Ultimate, indie games haven't gotten any form of representation in Smash. Now that there's precedent to be acknowledged, there is certainly "competition" to see which indie games are big enough to be immortalized by Nintendo themselves in one of their best-selling franchises.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Hollow Knight: Chance and Want 1%
Look, even if Nintendo's giving a decently succesful indie game a chance, there's a lot of them. Hollow Knight simply isn't special enough to stand out from the sea of Nindies out there and the sea of unexpected third parties in general is even bigger and I doubt Hollow Knight has a serious amidst all of them
As for want, I'd rather not have every indie game that gets more than three seconds of Nindie spotlight be a Smash contender. Most indies have a spark of design appeal, including Shovel Knight, Shantae and other more well-known characters

Ravio x5

 

[shocktarts17]

I understand where you're coming from, but I respectfully disagree that this is an excuse to generalize a character an indie rep. Certain companies having less power in the industry doesn't really mean that their characters should be treated as such. Also, Nintendo having more power doesn't even guarantee a character's spot in the roster. If Nintendo went up to Team Cherry right now and said "We want Hollow Knight in Smash", they won't just be handed over the character on a silver platter. As long as the indie company has a decent of understanding of licensing (which they'd probably have to have in such a case), the odds are still in Team Cherry's favor. They are the ones who decide whether or not Nintendo can use their character, and although Nintendo can negotiate with them this next one, Team Cherry ultimately decides the price. Yes, you can refer to the Knight as an indie rep, since he would be the only character from an indie game in Smash, but it's an afterthought considering the series he represents would say "Hollow Knight". The series a character reps should always get priority over more broad classifications.

In any case, the topic isn't one with a set in stone answer, so I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree about the situation.

I think on top of what Good Guy Giygas said, while Team Cherry does have the power to say yes or no, realistically when you have one game out (even one as good as Hollow Knight) you aren't going to turn down the chance to be seen at the level Smash sells. On top of that (not that I think Nintendo would do this) but there is always the possibility that if you tick off Nintendo that you won't be able to sell your games on their systems. While this would be bad for any company someone like Microsoft isn't going to lose any sleep over that because they have their own system and their own series selling at Smash levels. But for a small team like Team Cherry, suddenly having one of the systems being cut off could be the difference between staying in business or not.

Even if both sides act in good faith you can't deny they are coming into the conversation from two different places.

And the reason this causes "lumping" is that the situation is exactly the same for the devs of Shovel Knight, Shantae, and Undertale.

 

[Tetrin]

I agree with much of what shocktarts17 stated, but I have a few things to add.

Well, Ryu is indeed a rep from one of the most recognizable fighting game franchises and therefore a rep for fighting games. I mean you can even play Ryu with traditional 2D fighting-game inputs. Simon represents the other half of the genre "Metroid-vania" (which Hollow Knight also happens to be). To say they aren't representing a certain genre of games is not true.

Secondly, I don't think anyone here considers indie games a "genre." People tend to lump them all together because, being smaller, independent companies, they're not on the same level of notoriety as huge gaming giants such as Nintendo, Capcom, Square Enix, whoever. Even Nintendo tends to group them all together with their "Nindies" showcases. Every indie game fits into it's own genre obviously, same as how independent movies have their own genres. It's more of just a way to denote what isn't made by a major developer/studio. And the reality is, before Ultimate, indie games haven't gotten any form of representation in Smash. Now that there's precedent to be acknowledged, there is certainly "competition" to see which indie games are big enough to be immortalized by Nintendo themselves in one of their best-selling franchises.

My point in my initial post was admittedly poorly worded, so I'll rephrase my thoughts briefly as I did in my other one:

- Ryu representing fighting games is significantly more vague a definition than what Smash literally says he represents. He definitely poses as a character from a fighting game, but what he represents in particular is explicitly narrowed down in game to "Street Fighter" and not "Fighting Game". So yes, characters can represent a wide variety of things, but the in game specifications should take priority over more eclectic labels imo.

- Lumping together the games into just indie still won't put a character in as "indie". An indie game receiving a playable character in Smash would be the first of its kind, but Smash still identifies the character as a representative of its respective game or franchise.

Again, the answer isn't really objective as far as I can see.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Why are all indie characters white non-descript thingies?

Chance: 1%
Releasing a single game to critical acclaim and success isn’t a qualifier to get in Smash Bros. This is the clash of the icons. Check out other indie characters they could get. Shovel Knight and Undertale, those were crazy hits. Shantae, she has huge fandom. Touhou and Cave Story, the OGs of that side of the industry. Then I see Hollow Knight and I’m like ‘oh cool this game exists’. If Smash ever gets past it’s reluctance to indies, they won’t be adding Hollow Knight first.

Want: 0%
I like my third parties iconic. HK isn’t there, not by a mile. Also, and this is personal, but his design looks generic af to me.

Noms: Prof HectorX5

My point in my initial post was admittedly poorly worded, so I'll rephrase my thoughts briefly as I did in my other one:

- Ryu representing fighting games is significantly more vague a definition than what Smash literally says he represents. He definitely poses as a character from a fighting game, but what he represents in particular is explicitly narrowed down in game to "Street Fighter" and not "Fighting Game". So yes, characters can represent a wide variety of things, but the in game specifications should take priority over more eclectic labels imo.

- Lumping together the games into just indie still won't put a character in as "indie". An indie game receiving a playable character in Smash would be the first of its kind, but Smash still identifies the character as a representative of its respective game or franchise.

Again, the answer isn't really objective as far as I can see.

It’s not about how Smash identifies the character, it’s about how the character is perceived. There will probably be a single indie character included, if at all, so if Hollow Knight gets in he’d have to beat his perceived competition in that category. If indie rep isn’t a good term, think of him as a token indie.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

My point in my initial post was admittedly poorly worded, so I'll rephrase my thoughts briefly as I did in my other one:

- Ryu representing fighting games is significantly more vague a definition than what Smash literally says he represents. He definitely poses as a character from a fighting game, but what he represents in particular is explicitly narrowed down in game to "Street Fighter" and not "Fighting Game". So yes, characters can represent a wide variety of things, but the in game specifications should take priority over more eclectic labels imo.

- Lumping together the games into just indie still won't put a character in as "indie". An indie game receiving a playable character in Smash would be the first of its kind, but Smash still identifies the character as a representative of its respective game or franchise.

Again, the answer isn't really objective as far as I can see.

Fair enough. I do agree that each character simultaneously represents multiple things with their inclusion, including their game, developer, and genre among other things. It should be more about what the character can bring to the table, but it's often difficult to discern the true reason for their inclusion. Aside from what Sakurai or the team tell us, we can only make assumptions.

Also true, but I guarantee that should an indie character become playable, they'd acknowledge its "indie status" in some way. Whether it's in their trailer or in a social media post, they probably won't explicitly state, "Hey, this is an indie character," but I can see them commending the game for making it into the "big leagues" so to speak. After all, being in Smash is a privilege and encompasses being a testament to gaming and its history.

And trust me, this is coming from someone who loves indie games; I'd love to see more developers be recognized for their hard work. I was one of those people who jumped out of my chair in joy when I saw Shovel Knight as an assist trophy.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 5%
Hollow Knight is an indie darling by any definition of the title, and has the quality to back it. Too bad Japan doesn't actually like Metroidvanias as much as the West does.

I hate to say it, but I don't think an indie has a decent chance of getting into this DLC pass if it hasn't made a splash in Japan. It'd be much more realistic to go for someone that most people in the home country, a group which openly questioned who Shovel Knight was back in the Smash Ballot, might be familiar with.

Still, Hollow Knight made the deliberate choice of porting onto the Switch before other consoles, and it wears its Nintendo-originating inspirations on its sleeve. That's better than many other games can claim.

Want: 20%
While the battle over who would be the most appropriate indie rep rages on, I find Hollow Knight to be an acceptable frontrunner choice, even if he's not my first choice by quite a bit. Iconic, certified good, and wholly unique, he'd bring a good handful to the table if he was somehow ever chosen.



Prediction
Mach Rider: 0.4%

Nominations
Hat Kid x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

The ballot was a lie.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 0%
While his game was well received, he still is from a rather new indie title, which means he doesn't have much of a legacy to put him on the radar for playable fighter. At best, I see him having a shot at being a spirit, but outside of that, I really cannot see him getting in.

Want: 0%
It's another one of those characters that I have no personal connection or experience with. But when it comes to third party choices, there are still very popular and iconic characters to choose from that haven't made it in, so I'm going to give a hard pass on this one.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Simon represents the other half of the genre "Metroid-vania" (which Hollow Knight also happens to be). To say they aren't representing a certain genre of games is not true.

Isn't "Metroid-vania" just a fan made term however instead of an actual genre? I don't think I've ever seen that name being used by any official company. Metroid and Castlevania are both just categorized as "action-adventure" on Wikipedia.

It's not impossible to have more than one third-party represent a certain genre in Smash however. We're getting Joker as dlc despite Cloud already being in the game. (the rumoured Square rep can also potentially add one more)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Hollow Knight

1% Chance

I am gonna be honest with yall. I have never been big on an indie getting in smash. Shovel Knight and Shantae were in my opinion the only two I would consider for the base game, and look where they are. But that was for base game, and we are here now, looking at DLC.

While people may view third parties as likely, indies are a different discussion. I feel part of why third parties get more of a boost to them is the brand behind them or their legacy. Lets look at that 5chan leak for reference. For the record, I think it is fake, but the fact of the matter is a good bit of people are putting faith in it a bit. Because all the choices make sense. DQ and Minecraft are juggernauts, Ninja Gaiden is probably in my opinion the last iconicNES game I feel that we need to rep outside of maybe a retro throwback, and Doom is one of the most influential games of all time. Even if the leak is kind of dumb (the odds of knowing the release schedule is what kills it for me) people believe it because that sort of lineup makes sense.

We can look at other characters popular as third parties for this as well. (Note, I am ignoring Geno because in my opinion his situation is very distinct from each of these cases). Sora is a name that gets tossed around a lot in many circles, because KH is a massive series on the cusp of its biggest game ever. Crash is now someone people actually consider for DLC (and honestly someone that if we rated again I would be rating very favorably). The fact that both Banjo and Steve are being considered talks about the impact and legacy that these characters can have. Rayman, Leon, Phoenix Wright, hell I would even argue Layton and you know I dont speak highly on layton's chances.

The big part of this is impact. When a third party gets added to smash, it is a big deal. I feel I can say that all of our third parties were a big deal with the exception of Bayo who is essentially adopted by Nintendo. Even Joker was a big deal, with Persona 5 being a huge success and one of the best games of 2017, a stacked year for gaming. (Note: for similar reasons to Joker, I feel 2B is a sleeper pick as well).

That brings us to Hollow Knight. Would it have an impact? ...eh. I mean it is a popular game, but it ain't Shovel Knight, who has become the default indie prototype. If we get an indie rep, I would bet on Undertale. Undertale is without a doubt one of the biggest indie games of all time just by the virtue of how much it has grasped the gaming public. Yes there are memes about Undertale now, but it would not have these memes if it did not have an impact. Yes the fanbase is very... unique, but it is undeniable that it is a big deal. Meanwhile we have Hollow Knight, which while still clearly a big enough deal to be a highlight at Nintendo's E3 2018 (although lets be fair that was a bit of a weak year smash non withstanding), it is not as big as Undertale or even Shovel Knight are.

Overall, I feel that when looking at third parties, impact they would have is a big deal. I do not think Hollow Knight would make that cut.

100% Want

Which is a shame because I like Hollow Knight. Easily one of the best games of 2017 (which I will stress again is a tough bar to be at because 2017 is one of the greatest years in gaming up there with 2007 and the late 90s period. Hollow Knight is a gem of a game. Some of the best art and music in any game I have played. Great movement, everything feels good. There is a reason it is still towards the top of switch downloads.

Sephiroth x 5

 

[Deleted member]

I'm not a percentage man so don't expect any arbitrary mathematical estimates from me. Nothing's gonna be zero percent anyways so all I can give is speculation.

Chance:
With that said, The Hollow Knight? All I know about it is that it's indie. Never played it, but I heard it was really good. Personally, if Shovel Knight didn't even make it in, I highly doubt this more recent game will. Shovel Knight getting in as an assist trophy took years of notoriety, and Shantae is only a spirit. The most likely indie character at this point from rumors and theories is Minecraft given how Microsoft spirits in code were found in game, which is actual evidence of Steve's chances. It's not that Hollow Knight is impossible, but there are other contenders I'm looking at that have actual evidence.

E: Of course, who's to say Steve and Hallow Knight can't both be in? To me, if Minecraft is the first indie playable character and Shovel Knight still isn't, in which both carry significant impact and weight with their games, Hallow Knight's chances are mediocre in comparison.

Want:
I don't want Hallow Knight because I never played Hallow Knight and have no affiliation with it whatsoever.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I'm not a percentage man so don't expect any arbitrary mathematical estimates from me. Nothing's gonna be zero percent anyways so all I can give is speculation.

Chance:
With that said, The Hollow Knight? All I know about it is that it's indie. Never played it, but I heard it was really good. Personally, if Shovel Knight didn't even make it in, I highly doubt this more recent game will. Shovel Knight getting in as an assist trophy took years of notoriety, and Shantae is only a spirit. The most likely indie character at this point from rumors and theories is Minecraft given how Microsoft spirits in code were found in game, which is actual evidence of Steve's chances. It's not that Hollow Knight is impossible, but there are other contenders I'm looking at that have actual evidence.

Want:
I don't want Hallow Knight because I never played Hallow Knight and have no affiliation with it whatsoever.

Just wanna highlight this here as a quality abstaintion. Choosing not to post a score, yet still having a clear thought on the manner.

Also you can nominate things for future discussion.

 

[Deleted member]

Just wanna highlight this here as a quality abstaintion. Choosing not to post a score, yet still having a clear thought on the manner.

Also you can nominate things for future discussion.

Scores don't say what I think and I'm here to talk about my thoughts. Humorously, I didn't even the rules of the thread before posting. Glad to know I'm a good example. XD

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Isn't "Metroid-vania" just a fan made term however instead of an actual genre? I don't think I've ever seen that name being used by any official company. Metroid and Castlevania are both just categorized as "action-adventure" on Wikipedia.

It's not impossible to have more than one third-party represent a certain genre in Smash however. We're getting Joker as dlc despite Cloud already being in the game. (the rumoured Square rep can also potentially add one more)

I believe Metroid-vania is indeed an official genre of game (see the first line of the "History" section), though the genre's categorized as a sub-genre of "action-adventure." On Hollow Knight's wikipedia page, it's also listed as a Metroid-vania multiple times (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollow_Knight), though I imagine developers themselves avoid using the term as it's essentially just the name of two other game franchises.

And in terms of representing genres, I never implied that we can't have multiple fighters representing the same genre, as we already have multiple JRPG reps, platforming reps, etc. I was merely stating that Castlevania representation completed the duo that founded the Metroid-vania genre.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I figured a lot of people wouldn’t see the nominations if I just edited an old post, so now that post contains a cool Easter egg.

Half of this nominations update was written while visually impaired walking down the street so please forgive any typos and if I die give all my noms to Ravio.

Here’s hoping I at least managed to paste the list within the spoiler.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: All DLC characters are third party pre-Hollow Knight

Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x272


Reaper (Overwatch) x266


Concept: More DLC x265


Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x261


Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x260


Concept: SNK rep x210


Sephiroth x190





200 - 151





Dark Matter x165


Ravio x165


Professor Hector x163


Ezio Auditore da Firenze x155





150 - 101





Dante x150


Andy (Advance Wars) x145


Shy Guy x140


Concept: World of Light expansion x140


Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x135


Kat & Ana x135


Bonkers (Kirby) x130


Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x130


Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x130


Poochy x125


Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x122


Ryota Hayami x120


Concept: Boss Rush x120


Sly Cooper x120


Concept: Style Savvy rep x120


Q*Bert x116


Amy Rose x115


Vaati x115


Brash the Bear x115


Magikarp x109


Hat Kid x105


Impa x101


Porky Minch x101





100 - 51





Tracer x100


Monster Hunter x100


Cranky Kong x100


Nathan Drake x100


Concept: Microsoft Rep x100


Aloy x100


Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100


Concept: Undertale rep x100


Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95


Lora (Xenoblade) x95


Boss: Kracko x85


9-Volt x69


Spyro x62


Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x60





50 - 25





Creeper x47


Papyrus x41


Frisk x40


Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30


Ninten x30


Thrall (Warcraft) x25


Cooking Mama x25





Under 25





Boss: Perfect Chaos x20


Kamek x20


Earthworm Jim x20


Hector (Fire Emblem) x15


Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15


Ryu Hayabusa x15


Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10


Decidueye x10


Concept: Bethesda rep x10


Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10


Amaterasu x10


Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10


Tora and Poppi x10


Concept: Spectator Emotes x10


Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10


Brian (Quest 64) x10


Reporter & Wrestler x10


Noctis Lucis Caelum x10


Adeleine (Kirby) x7


Blacephalon x5


Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5


Monokuma x5


Concept: Another joke character x5


Neptune x5


Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5


Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5


Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5


Courier (Fallout) x5


Scorpion x5


Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5


Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5


Black Shadow x5


Marx (Kirby) x5


Saber (Fate) x5


Tetromino x5


[Rerate] 2B x5


Lizalfos x4


Toon Zelda x3


Eight (Dragon Quest) x3


Boss: Sans x2


Urbosa x1


Stahl x1


[Rerate] Steve? x1

Big ol switcheroo in the top 7. Gen 8 Pokémon passes Stages outside Fighter Pass, but More DLC passes both. More DLC is now third, Gen 8 Pokémon fourth and Stages drops all the way down to fifth.

Ezio Auditore da Firenze leaps past 150 noms.

Hat Kid collects over 100 noms.

Today’s newcomer is a Rerate of 2B with 5 noms.

 

[shocktarts17]

if I die give all my noms to Ravio.

hmmm...

On the one hand I'd probably miss GoodGrief741 if they were gone...

But on the other hand Ravio nominations...

 

[TCT~Phantom]

hmmm...

On the one hand I'd probably miss GoodGrief741 if they were gone...

But on the other hand Ravio nominations...

The class trial over the murder of GoodGrief741 will begin in 11 hours upupupu.

 

[Sid-cada]

Hollow Knight

Chance - 0.15% - Hollow Knight was considered to be the unexpected breakthrough indie hit that came out of nowhere. From a moderately successful kickstarter to a Holly Grail of indie gaming, Hollow Knight, at least among indie games has quickly turned into an icon. Still, the Knight seems a bit too recent, and if they wanted to go indie I think there are bigger names. That, and admittedly there might be problems with what he brings to the table.

Want - 55% - While I have yet to play Hollow Knight, I do plan to get it once I have access to my Switch again. I have seen playthroughs, though, and while it looks up my alley (Favorite Character is good ol' Dung Defender. Doma Doma!) I don't quite think he fits in with what I want in a Smash Character. If he were to get in, I'd probably argue that he should have been switched with Shovel Knight for Rivals of Aether.

Predictions

Mach Rider - 1.03% - Retros aren't likely...


Nominatinos

Dark Matter X5

 

[PeridotGX]

Emptied Night

Chance: .5%. He's much too recent and obscure. If we were to get an indie, it would be Shovel Knight, Shantae, or Frisk.

Want: abstain. I've never played Hollow Knight

Noms: Maxwell x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Guess knights are the ones who succeed in the indie industry:
Chance: 0%-Cruel after going on a whole essay on why I expect all five characters to be guests, but Hollow Knight is just incredibly recent, not to mention, his game wasn't as annoyingly popular as Undertale, Shovel Knight or others were. Indies in general just have to compete with bigger companies, and that's where things get bad, only Shovel Knight, Shantae and Snipperclips (don't know if that last one can be considered an indie, but I'll keep as one) got some kind of "notable" representation, but not characters.
Want: 0%-I looked up for some Hollow Knight gameplay before tackling him, and he just looks like an Alucard/Soma Cruz archetype with a nail for a sword, and frankly, I'd rather get either of those Castlevania characters before him.
Nominations: Dante x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

hmmm...

On the one hand I'd probably miss GoodGrief741 if they were gone...

But on the other hand Ravio nominations...

The class trial over the murder of GoodGrief741 will begin in 11 hours upupupu.

I lived *******.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over, rate Mach Rider and predict Nero Claudius from Fate.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Alright boys and girls buckle up because I nominated Mach Rider and this I’m obligated by tradition to make a super long post.

Y’all already know who Mach Rider is though. Awesome wasteland biker, classic black box NES title, ambiguous gender, all that Jazz.

Mach Rider is a Spirit, has a song in the game, and that’s pretty much all she wrote.

Chance: 2%

Gave a 2% Chance in case somebody saw the reaction to the Grinch leak, realized they don’t know what the **** they’re doing and decided to crib from a fan roster.

Want: 100%

I mean, whether Mach is on a bike or on foot, the moveset’s awesome. If on bike, that’s it, coolest character ever, hitting dudes, popping wheelies, blowing stuff up. If on foot, you have a quick rush down badass who shoots folks with a machine gun and can disintegrate and reform at will. Plus, like, other Mad Max stuff like chains. You guys like chains right?

Retro Nintendo characters are just the best.

Nero Claudius prediction: 0.3%

Nominations: Prof HectorX5

 

[3DSNinja]

The Grinch Leak
Chance:10%: If we get a retro rep, it's him. doubtful we will get a retro rep tho.
Want:100%: They are cool and have. a bike with a machine gun. They would be awesome.
Nominations: Shy Guy x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Grinch bargaining
Chance: 1%
She was considered for Melee and that's it. I don't think an nes retro character would be very profitable. If they still want to add one the more well known Exitebiker would probably make more sense. Mach rider would just be a "literally who" to most people.
Also, there must atleast be a handful of music tracks included in the fighter pack. Most of the Mach Rider ost is already used in the one song that's already in the game.

Want: 35%
A fighter always on a motorbike could be iinteresing. I haven't played MR tho, so I'd just prefer seeing other more popular first-parties.

Nero: 0.80%
100 characters x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I can now see, therefore I can type. HK’s day was a slow day. I guess indie games can sell over a million and still be pretty obscure?

Spoiler: Nominations post-Hollow Knight pre-Mach Rider

Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x272
Reaper (Overwatch) x271
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x266
Concept: More DLC x265
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x260
Concept: SNK rep x210
Sephiroth x200


200 - 151

Ravio x175
Dark Matter x170
Professor Hector x168
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x160


150 - 101

Dante x150
Andy (Advance Wars) x145
Shy Guy x145
Concept: World of Light expansion x140
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x135
Kat & Ana x135
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x135
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x135
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x127
Poochy x125
Ryota Hayami x125
Concept: Boss Rush x120
Sly Cooper x120
Concept: Style Savvy rep x120
Q*Bert x116
Amy Rose x115
Vaati x115
Brash the Bear x115
Hat Kid x110
Magikarp x109
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51

Tracer x100
Monster Hunter x100
Cranky Kong x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Boss: Kracko x85
9-Volt x69
Spyro x62
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x60

50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Ryu Hayabusa x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Reporter & Wrestler x10
Noctis Lucis Caelum x10
Adeleine (Kirby) x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Saber (Fate) x5
Tetromino x5
[Rerate] 2B x5
Frogger x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Gen 8 Pokémon retakes third place and More DLC drops down to fourth. Sephiroth reaches 200 noms.

Our newcomer today is Frogger, with 5 noms.

 

[Idon]

Mach Rider is a Spirit, has a song in the game, and that’s pretty much all she wrote.

Chance: 0%

Mach Rider is a spirit, is not relevant today, has little if any mention by Sakurai and/or Nintendo, and in a world where Sakurai has spent a huge amount of resources returning every character back at the expense of traditions like "retro reps," trophies, and game-modes. It's doubtful that either Nintendo as a whole or Sakurai would care much about a character as hard of a sell as her when there are so, so many more popular and recognizable options.

Want: 10%

I'm not a huge fan of the Mach Rider game first and foremost so that's already a big hit.
She'd have very little in the way of interesting moves to actually draw from but if something interesting can be made up involving her bike and her gun, then maybe I might be interested in that alone. That said, that's all hypothetical and honestly I have enough characters with guns that I want without those gun moves being made up.

Nominations: ReRate 2B x5

You're all sleeping on her, I know it.

 

[Artix]

Mach Rider

Chance: 1%
I don't think Mach Rider has a chance in Smash as DLC. For one, Nintendo might most likely focus on relevant first-party characters and Mach Rider isn't one. Sure, she could be Ultimate's retro rep, but they should have done it in the base roster, not as DLC. Maybe in a Season 2 Pass will we be able to see Mach Rider, but for this wave of DLC, it's highly unlikely.

Want: 80%
You know what? I actually liked her. I have played the game and it was awesome to play. I could definitely see her having a Kamen Rider-esque moves and that would actually made me happy since I'm a Kamen Rider fan.

Nero Claudius Prediction: 3.58%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5

 

[Sari]

Grinch Rider

Chance: 2%
With the Grinch leak long gone we are now back to square one with Mach Rider. If we were to get Mach Rider I think she would've been in the base game since her only game is extremely old and I don't think she'd be that hype for DLC to most people. It doesn't help that she is a spirit and the DLC is shaping up to be mainly for third parties.

Want: 55%
A Mad Max type biker would be a great addition to Smash plus it'd be a nice homage to an old Nintendo title. I also think it'd be cool to get an apocalyptic biker stage alongside them.

Nero Claudius chance prediction: 2.16%

Nominations:
Sephiroth x5

 

[shocktarts17]

Mach Rider
Chance: 1%
Something something spirits. Something something too obscure for DLC. If they are really looking for a retro rep I feel like they would grab someone like Ryu Hayabusa at this point who is also a retro rep but one with modern appeal and 3rd party "hype" behind it.

Want: 65%
I'm not gonna lie, I was a believer. And in the week that the Grinch had his hold on the Smash community I got kinda hyped for Mach Rider. It's mostly died down by now but I'm pretty sure I'd get hyped again if they were announced.

Prediction: Nero .5%
Nomination: Ravio x5

I lived *******.

yay...

I'm totally happy you're alive man...

I can hardly contain my joy...

(jk lol glad you didn't die typing up nominations, it's a pretty risky trade)

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Mach Rider

Chance: 3% - I think we all know this ain't happening. It's incredibly unlikely for there to be a Nintendo retro rep as DLC, and Mach Rider's a more obscure choice to begin with. Not much going for him/her aside from appearing on the infamous Grinch leak, which doesn't mean anything anyway.

Want: 100% - I've always had a soft spot for Mach Rider. The idea of a character who comes from a Mad Max-esque world and fights on a weaponized bike has always seemed like such a unique and fun concept to me. Because of this, Mach Rider's been one of my most-wanteds since Brawl, but they've always seemed like a pipe dream. Then the Grinch leak happened, and the possibility that Mach Rider might actually happen was unreal for me. Well, we all know how that turned out, and although it was short-lived, it was nice to see Mach Rider in the spotlight for a change. People were talking about the potential the character had and were warming up to the idea, and that was good enough for me.

Nero Prediction: 1%

Nominations:
Frogger x5

 

[Flyboy]

Mach Rider
Chance: 1%
Look, I don't want to be as simple as saying I think spirits deconfirm but I really think they do for this first pass. Plus, the game only had one or two songs and one of them is already in the game so there goes the music part of the pack. Besides, while the character has always been in the conversation thanks to Melee, I think that was her last true chance.

Want: 80%
Look, if I want a Melee-considered retro rep it's Ayumi Tachibana but Mach Rider is cool as hell. She has a motorcycle. She has a big gun. The red, white, and blue look or the red jumpsuit from that one magazine are both great looks. I was down with her before the Grinch leak and I'm down with her now. I love retro reps and deep cuts and Mad Max and Mach Rider is all of that. Simply put, she's cool.

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5

 

[Neosonic97]

Am I doing this right?
Mach Rider
Chance: 1%
As far as I'm aware, this Fighter Pass is mostly going to be third-parties, given how it was mentioned that Joker is emblematic of the approach to DLC. That already cuts into Mach Rider's chances, as they're a first-party character, made directly by Nintendo. Secondly, I don't see us getting another retro Nintendo character until AT LEAST the next wave of DLC if not the next game. We've already got the Ice Climbers, ROB, Ness, Lucas and Mr. Game and Watch for retro Nintendo characters, plus Wii Fit Trainer and Little Mac if you want to stretch the meaning of 'retro'.

Want: Abstain.
I really don't have an opinion on Mach Rider either way considering my particular lack of knowledge about them, so I'm REALLY not qualified to say whether I want them in or not.

Nero Prediction: 1%. If we're getting ANY representative from the Fate Series, it's gonna be Arturia. Y'know, the Blue Saber. The one who Nero Claudius AKA Red Saber has their design based off of.

Nominations: Yuri Lowell x5

Edit: Because Reimu's already locked in, changed my nomination.

 

[shocktarts17]

Am I doing this right?
Mach Rider
Chance: 1%
As far as I'm aware, this Fighter Pass is mostly going to be third-parties, given how it was mentioned that Joker is emblematic of the approach to DLC. That already cuts into Mach Rider's chances, as they're a first-party character, made directly by Nintendo. Secondly, I don't see us getting another retro character until AT LEAST the next wave of DLC if not the next game. We've already got the Ice Climbers, ROB, and Mr. Game and Watch for retro Nintendo characters, plus Wii Fit Trainer and Little Mac if you want to stretch it.

Want: Abstain.
I really don't have an opinion on Mach Rider either way considering my particular lack of knowledge about them, so I'm REALLY not qualified to say whether I want them in or not.

Nero Prediction: 1%. If we're getting ANY representative from the Fate Series, it's gonna be Arturia. Y'know, the Blue Saber. The one who Nero Claudius AKA Red Saber has their design based off of.

Nominations: Reimu Hakurei x5

Yep looks good, though if you had done a score for Want you would have needed a second sentence for it to count.

EDIT: that said you'd have to check with GoodGrief741 but I was thinking we did Reimu fairly recently and she might not be eligible for a rerate yet.