Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[SPEN18]

Mach Rider

Chance: 2%
I'm glad that most people don't seem to view the bike as an obstacle to his feasibility anymore. Anyway, chances are low for any Nintendo character right now, and Mach Rider isn't exactly a marketing pick either. He got a boost in popularity from the Grinch leak, but otherwise he doesn't have a lot that makes me think Nintendo would pick him.

Want: 70%
I'm picky in this department; probably only three characters are at the top of my list of requests. So a 70 is actually a very good score from me; I actually really like Mach Rider. He and Takamaru would be my NES era choices; Mach Rider in particular has a very unique biker moveset with more options than Excitebiker (they probably could also work some Excitebike stuff into his moveset/costumes just like Duck Hunt has stuff from other Zapper games, and still represent him properly). His game is not the most significant of the NES era, but it's first party and so that barrier is more easily cleared. So the short of it is that he's a cool character from a new franchise, but he just loses a few points for not being my highest priority among new franchises.

Noms: Andy x5

 

[Deleted member]

Mach Rider?

Chance:
So the biggest thing going in Mach Rider's favor was the grinch leak. Now that that's disproved, his chances are really up in the air, especially in the present DLC era. Would Nintendo really want to save a fighter's pass for an obscure NES character? I'm confused here. On one hand, DLCs are meant to be incredibly hype. On another hand, Piranha Plant is a bloody preorder bonus that'll cost money if you didn't preorder the game. Granted, can't really say Piranha Plant is worth as much as a fighter's pass, and Nintendo is looking to reach all crowds with DLC if Joker, Cloud, and Bayonetta are anything to go off of. My stance on the matter is that Mach Rider wont be DLC purely out of marketing. If Nintendo was going to do something with a first party, they would use it to promote a future game like the new FE game or Mother 3 localization. His chances are superior in a Smash 6 base roster where he could rep as the joke retro character, but he doesn't have priority over other potential retro characters either. I would not hold my breath with him.

Want:
So a motorcyclist riding around the stage with actual ****ing ballistics is awesome. Screw Excite Bike. They don't ride around with machine guns. I'm not rooting for him specifically for a first party retro rep because there are other creative possibilities with other candidates. It would be narrow minded to only just want Mach Rider. Hell, at this point, GBA games can be considered retro and my signature says what I might want. (Spoiler: It's Advance Wars)

That being said, now? I wouldn't want him as DLC. I'd want some 3rd party legendary candidate. I think DLC is the opportunity for those crazy impossible (in the sense of licensing) characters to make it in, and I'd rather see those ideas come to life. They'll broaden my gaming perspective and would add ideas to the series I'd never think of. We have Joker now in Smash Ultimate. He beats Mach Rider out the bloody gate. Let's get someone as equally interesting. I'll wait for Smash 6 before thinking about first party characters.

 

[Ridrool64]

The most badass sex ambiguous character ever.

Chance: 10%. I dunno, I'm not really feeling that chance for this Grincher. While Banjo has just gotten a massive boost from Joker, the others... no they did not. Mach Rider is probably hit the hardest, being a retro that they'd save for base game.

Want: 20%. I mean, the Grinch was a terrible time so of course I want a memorial to it. And the moveset looks plenty interesting. But having no hands on experience means I go to my "not Arle competition" score of 20%.

Sly Cooper x 5. Not going to predict Nero because I've known very little, but I can't imagine him being too likely.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Mach Rider

Chance: 5%
DLC characters have to sell on their own merits, which means they have to be characters that players are familiar with and would want to buy. Mach Rider is one of those really old NES titles that never really went anywhere and just was something that existed, it never was a hit or a cult classic, so I don't see the demand anywhere. The only time the character was on anyone's radar would be during the Grinch Hoax; where people started supporting the character because they believed he was actually getting in, but when the truth came out, the support evaporated as quickly as it came.

Want: 0%
I'll pass on the obscure NES picks for DLC. I think that well has dried up, and if we want some lesser-known Nintendo faces, there are those from SNES and beyond that could be chosen as well. And, of course, there's still loads of third-party mega-stars that would be much more hype to bring in as well.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Reminder that Mach Rider is a girl.

 

[Nemuresu]

Grinch fodder:
Chance: 10%-Now that I think of it, retro characters could be included, mainly because Ice Climbers and Duck Hunt had their own stages. Sadly, the characters still need to live to Joker's hype, and that's where things go fishy at best, gloomy at worst, since third-party characters are more likely to work with that, even those that sound more predictable like Steve.
Want: 30%-Eh, this is more of a gamble to me. Retro characters take a lot of creativity and liberties, so they can be fun, but at the same time, they run the risk of being boring. Granted, we don't have a single retro newcomer, so he (because I'm sure as hell there hasn't been any hard confirmation on the woman claim, not to mention the entirely different body types where an armour just can't be involved) she (yeah, that Captain Rainbow definitely ain't a guy) is welcome on my book.
Nominations: Dante x5

 

[Deleted member]

HOW THE GRINCH STOLE A MOTORCYCLE

For the purposes of this post, I’m gonna say Mach Rider is a girl.
Chance :
Mach Rider is the eponymous protagonist of the classic NES game, where she fights and races along a post-apocalyptic Earth and defeats the evil alien race called the Quadrunners, all while on a sick futuristic motorcycle. The game has never seen a sequel since it’s original 1985 release, but it has been sometimes featured when Nintendo re-releases their old NES games. Mach Rider herself was featured as a trophy in Melee sporting a re-design and was even considered as the retro rep, although apparently Sakurai said he thought the name was funny so it could have just been a joke. Mach Rider’s music has also been featured since Melee as one of the more prominent remixes, so the game has been acknowledged in Smash before, with Mach Rider being a spirit in Ultimate. If they want to represent a retro character in the DLC, Mach Rider’s certainly a candidate. However, I can’t say a retro character is likely in the first place. Nintendo seems to be aiming with big names for the DLC, and retro characters are usually left as base-game surprises due to their relative obscurity. It would be a difficult to sell a character as old and irrelevant as Mach Rider. Their suggestion in Melee may have not even been all too serious in the first place, and with Nintendo calling the shots I’m not sure they have any plans for the Mach Rider property. We didn’t even get a retro character on the traditional-sense this game which further lowers her chances. The only way I can see her getting in is if they’re making some sort of Mach Rider reboot or if they really noticed their growth in popularity from the Grinch leak and decide to add them. Neither of which seems very likely.
2%

Want :
The thing that struck me about the Grinch leak character-wise was Mach Rider. I had wanted them before but I thought we weren’t getting a retro rep this game and didn’t see them as likely. I was rather happy to see people acknowledging them again with the Grinch leak, and they were definitely the character I was mainly rooting for coming into the November Direct. The idea of a cool 80s action hero who fights on a bike sounds really appealing to me. There’s this one deviantart moveset for Mach Rider from like 2006 and that has them using chains and all other types of 80s actions stuff, and I think if they go that route Mach Rider would be a ton of fun. I’ve played their game as well, and it ain’t half-bad for what it is. They’re design in the magazine posted above is great too and not just because it makes my snake solid.
75%
Noms: Ezio x5

 

[PeridotGX]

That one part of the Grinch Leak nobody really talked about.

Chance: 1%. It doesn;t look good for her to get in. Mach Rider's an obscure NES game that probably wouldn't be great selling DLC. Besides, if we were to get a Bike-Based Retro, why not the much more iconic Exitebiker?

Want: Abstain. I've never played Mach Rider

Noms: Grovyle x1, Maxwell x4

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Mach Rider

10% Chance

To be honest, I can see us getting a retro character as dlc. An outside shot, but I can see it. The fact we did not get a traditional retro newcomer was something that honestly surprised me pre release. It was the most noticeable omission. As such, I can see a retro being pushed back into dlc.

I also want to state that my view on spirits has evolved. I do view spirits as less of a death knell as I used to. I do feel that while it is not a good sign, if we go by existing knowledge (comparing spirits to their closest equivalent in trophies) than they should not matter. That is my current piece on that part.

Now onto our retro options, we have a couple of good choices. Excitebiker, Mach Rider, hell even more obscure ones like Ayumi. There are a couple of factors that in my opinion make mach rider the second best retro pick.

First off there is the moveset potential. Mach Rider has a clear and easy gimmick. Have a character on a mount of sorts. A motorcycle makes sense for this, mainly due to animations and how unique you could make the moveset. Kick flips, wheelies, all sorts of good stuff. The potential of a character on a bike has no limits. Excitebiker also has this but Mach Rider has guns.

Grinch, while definitely not a factor in this current wave of dlc, will probably be something know in the future. The reaction it created is something to note. I can see it being something talked about in the benefit of the characters not locked away in Assist Trophies.

Perhaps the biggest benefit of Mach Rider over say Excitebiker is design. Mach Rider has that Mad Max aesthetic and charm, while Excitebiker is just a biker.

However, Excitebiker is the bigger deal. His franchise is not completely dead, it always rears its head from time to time. ExciteTruck, Excitebike 64, hell the 3DS got Excitebikes for free early on as a promo. Excitebiker even has a course in Mario Kart.

I think there is about a 30% chance we get a retro rep as dlc. Excitebiker get 15%, Mach gets 10% and the rest are kind of around 1%.

100% Want

I love the Mad Max aesthetic. It honestly would be so badass to go around as a biker girl and beat up people. I want the feeling of just mowing people down on a beast of a bike. I honestly also want to see an HD imagining of a Mach Rider stage. Imagine all the Mad Max esque imagery, the decay, the deserts, it would be such a cool stage I need it.

Also yes Mach Rider is a girl, that Magazine poster is official nintendo merchandise. I consider that as good as a confirmation. Also look at Mach Rider's model in Captain Rainbow.

Sephiroth x 5


Also anyone with mach rider as a he in their post will be ignored and shunned.

/s

 

[Icedragonadam]

Mach Rider

Chance: 1%

-Do I seriously have to make these points again?
-Insert: 1st party characters unlikely, not enticing as DLC etc.

Want: 90%

That said though, she's my most wanted retro character. But I do feel she fitted more for Base IMO.

Prediction: 3.5%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Remeber when people thought the vifam figurine was being used for Mach Rider? Good times.

Chance: 0%
There's no reason to add them. It probably wouldn't reach a big audience. It wouldn't be a good business decision.

Want: 0%
I've never been sold on any ideas people suggest for the character. I never liked the game enough nor have I ever felt the game had much that could be expanded upon in an interesting way.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

You're a mean one, Mr. Grinch... GOD DAMMIT!
Oh yeah, the other Excitebiker.
Chance: 1%
Want: 65%

PROS
-She's hot.
-She has a lot of moveset potential, including a bike and guns!
-Would make a great retro rep.
-Gained a good amount of support after the Grinch leak. (DAMMIT!)

CONS
-Irrelevant.
-Hasn't had a game release since 1985.
-The gained support is probably not enough for Sakurai to consider.
-Characters were chosen by Nintendo, and Mach Rider probably went over their heads for choices.
-Reggie is hinting towards characters that would cause a lot of hype. Mach Rider doesn't really have that.
-The DLC will likely consist of many third parties.
-Is a spirit, which is almost a death sentence for any character.

It's quite a shame, because Mach Rider would be a really cool retro character to put into Smash, and would make a better inclusion than Excitebiker. The Grinch leak had me excited only for it to fall on its face thanks to Incineroar. I was happy with every leaked character in the leak as well. Welp, maybe next time Mach Rider.

Nero who? 0.23%
(I just researched this character, and she is so obscure and foreign to the point where the actual Roman figure popped up first before the actual character. The actual character herself is also one of the most random choices I've ever seen on this thread. (Maybe outside of Django and Hanafuda.)

Reaper x5

 

[HYRULESHERO42]

Mach Rider

Chance: I dunno, 5% (If DLC does include 1st party)
Her inclusion is a stretch, but there really wasn’t a first party retro character this time around. And everything is a pattern until it isn’t.

Want: 100%
A badass armored biker chick would be amazing. I’ll admit I’m an “elitist” when it comes to smash and I’d rather have the most obscurest of obscure first party fighters than any Uber popular third party fighter so the lady Mach Rider checks out in my book.

 

[Jomosensual]

Mach Rider

Chance: 5 - He's a spirit for one, which hurts his chances. I also don't see a retro rep being picked for DLC, especially one who didn't have a lot of fun demand behind him. Being 1st party also knocks him down a bit since I'm guessing at a 3-2 or 4-1 split to be the ratio of 3rd to 1st party characters in the game

Want: 50 - I wouldn't mind it I guess. Very neutral on this character

Noms:
Cranky Kong x5

 

[Deleted member]

(I just researched this character, and she is so obscure and foreign to the point where the actual Roman figure popped up first before the actual character. The actual character herself is also one of the most random choices I've ever seen on this thread. (Maybe outside of Django and Hanafuda.)

Reaper x5

Actually, look up Nero Claudius (has to be the full name) and click on images.

 

[Sid-cada]

Mach Rider

Chance - 0.05% - A sort of alternative to Exitebiker, Mach Rider is a semi-well known retro. That said, retros are unlikely for DLC, and Mach Rider doesn't have anything really to stand out among them.

Want - 75% - Hey, motorcycles with machine guns. What part of that doesn't sound cool?


Prediction

Nero - 12.3% - In a post-Joker world, who knows?

Nominations

Dark Matter X5

 

[EarlTamm]

Chance: 1%
Yeah, her as DLC is not happening. And even if they wanted to have a retro rep as DLC, she has some stiff competition.

Want: 85%
I learned about her in depth because of the Grinch leak, and that was the only good thing to come out of it for me when the dust settled. The look, the move set potential, the classic status, the character, all of it just clicks for me. Definitely my top retro pick.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Interesting observation on the want score, in pre release Mach Rider had a quite low average, while now the average has increased a good bit. I feel the Grinch leak made people soften up on the character.

 

[EarlTamm]

Interesting observation on the want score, in pre release Mach Rider had a quite low average, while now the average has increased a good bit. I feel the Grinch leak made people soften up on the character.

Yeah. When it comes to my perspective pre Grinch, I just kinda saw her as that one retro biker that is not as referenced as Excitebike. Heck, I did not know that she was even a she! So when Grinch rolled around and I saw Mach Rider, I decided to look into the character and see why they would be in the roster, and I was quickly won over. I imagine it is a similar case for many others.

 

[Deleted member]

Gosh darn it I didn't receive notifications and didn't know day 238 passed

Chance: 0%, The reason I say this is because I feel like Nintendo wouldn't do this. If Nintendo picked made the list I 100% believe Nintendo wouldn't put Mach Rider on the list because it wouldn't make any sense. Plus Sakurai did try adding Mach Rider once and it wouldn't work right.


Want: 0%, The only retro NES character I want is Mike Jones.
Plus We already have a Biker, that's Wario.




Nominations: Freddi Fish and Luther x5

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Mach Rider

Chance: 1%
I highly doubt Nintendo would go after Mach Rider, especially since the series isn't relevant and the fact that the DLC will mostly be third-parties. Even among first-party characters, they'll most likely prioritize promotional characters like Edelgard and Sylux over a retro rep like Mach Rider. They should have added her in the base roster as Ultimate's retro rep, but they didn't do it.

Want: 5%
I gotta admit, I kinda liked Mach Rider. But when it comes to a retro rep in Smash, there are other characters who could possibly outshine her, like Excitebiker and Ryu Hayabusa (bonus points for being 3rd-party). Still, I would put them lower since I really don't care about a retro rep that much.

Nominations:
Noctis Lucis Caelum x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Interesting observation on the want score, in pre release Mach Rider had a quite low average, while now the average has increased a good bit. I feel the Grinch leak made people soften up on the character.

Think it could be that and the fact that a lot of peoples favorites have been deconfirmed or are likely deconfirmed. It's a lot easier for some to support someone like Mach Rider when she won't be taking a spot from a bigger fan base character like Issac or Geno

 

[Deleted member]

Interesting observation on the want score, in pre release Mach Rider had a quite low average, while now the average has increased a good bit. I feel the Grinch leak made people soften up on the character.

I disagree. I wanted Mach Rider as soon as I saw their design (in context with the Grinch leak). Now of course, before that, I'd have no idea who she even was. You'd get an indifferent, "well she might be a retro character" response from me. Now you'll get a, "This is a cool retro character" response.

E: Oh wait. You were commenting on the general crowd versus specific people. Nevermind. Jumped the gun.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day Over

Today we got Nero Claudius from Fable. Another sort of Saber. Ya know I am just gonna bang out these ratings now.

Nero Claudius

0.01% Chance

On the off chance we do get her as an echo of Saber who would obviously come first. Honestly, I would say if there was any character I regret not putting on the schedule right away it was Saber. I made the original post release schedule as taking a bunch of popular characters or ones that were requested to be on there. If we included people I feel have a realistic chance, I would have put Saber.

Let me say now that Saber is one of those characters that I felt we underrated in our initial run through. Fate is a pretty big visual novel and FGO is the biggest gacha game of them all. I honestly think Saber is one of those characters that is not too unrealistic to occur. I know a lot of people would be disappointed in Saber but she makes sense. Also the character is cool, love her story. Fate also tends to have decent stories if you accept them being dumb sometimes.

Now Nero is commonly known as Red Saber. While there are a bunch of Saber characters within Fate, the main one of value is Artoria, the saber we all know. Artoria is the big fish of Fate. Nero getting in over her is not gonna happen. While Nero is decently popular in FGO, there is no way Nero gets in over Artoria. That would be like if we got Reinhart from Fire Emblem in before we got Marth. Hyperbole I know but still.

5% want

My fate knowledge is limited after Fate/Zero and Fate stay/night. I do not have much experience with Nero. I would say that I would much rather have Saber by far though. For me it is kind of like a weird spot because I do not hate the idea of this. Most likely she would just be an alt for Saber. But still, it is something that I would rather not happen. The 5% if just because it would open the door for DLC echos.

Sephiroth x 5

Tomorrow is Reimu. Predict Reimu from Touhou. I feel this is a character that will get underrated on here tbh.

 

[Sari]

Nero Claudius

As someone who knows next to nothing about the Fate series this was probably the hardest character to research on. If I made a mistake regarding Fates' lore please tell me.

Chance: 0.5%
If we were to get a character from the Fate series it would probably be the main Saber (the one in blue) since she is the most popular and iconic character in the series. The only way I can see Nero being represented would be through an alternate color for Saber or as a possible echo (I have no idea if she is even echo viable for Saber since I don't know much about Fate).

Want: 2%
Sorry but I just don't care about the Fate series or its characters. Gave a tiny bit of want % because I think her design is alright and she's based off someone from Roman history (I wonder how the real world Nero would react to this character).

Reimu Hakurei chance prediction: 6.84%

Nominations:
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x5

If my calculations/predictions are correct this concept needs at least 6 more nominations so we don't have 4 concept days in a row. If you'd rather have the upcoming RTC alternate between characters and concepts please consider giving some nominations to Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon.

 

[CureParfait]

Nero Claudius

Chance- 1%
If there is a Fate rep coming to Smash it is most likely going to be Artoria (Blue dress Saber) or Archer from Fate Stay Night. She seems more of a colour swap for Artoria instead of being playable.

Want- 75%
I think it is cool to see a Fate series rep in Smash. Although Nero isn't my most wanted from the Fate series though.

 

[Artix]

Nero Claudius

Chance: 1%
The only reason I nominated her is because of the upcoming Fate/Extella Link on the Nintendo Switch, so I figure she might be possible as DLC to promote the game since she is the main focus of the Extella series. However, Nintendo would most likely go after Artoria since she's basically the mascot of Fate and the most popular Saber. I do have to admit that she is better off being Artoria's Echo since she has the same build as Artoria, just replace wind with fire and have some changes to her movesets and we're good to go. With Joker's inclusion in Smash, I think it's possible we're getting someone from the Fate series since it is the most popular franchise in Japan and FGO is basically the biggest gacha game out there. It's just that they'll most likely pick Artoria to represent the franchise instead of Nero, who would be suited as an Echo Fighter of Artoria. Maybe we could see her in an all-Echo Fighter DLC, but that's assuming Artoria got in first.

Want: 30%
Okay, I do like Nero and all, but Artoria will always be the best Saber. Nero is better off as Artoria's Echo but unfortunately, that won't happen, at least for this wave of DLC. I've been dreaming of having a Fate character in Smash and I think we're getting closer to make it a reality, thanks to Joker. Who knows at this point, it might actually happen and I'm hoping it does since Saber is one of my most wanted character in Smash.

Reimu Hakurei Prediction: 7.15%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Woo boy I’ve been dreading this day

The guy that burnt Rome, now in waifu form!

Chance: 0%
If a Fate character gets in, it’s Saber. And not Red Saber, the one people know. There might be arguments for other characters to get in, but not any Saber before the Saber. Fate in Smash alone is something I don’t find likely at all, so this doesn’t even earn my obligatory post-Piranha Plant 1%.

Want: 0%
I don’t want Fate in Smash. I would hate Fate in Smash. Fate in Smash is to be on the level of Minecraft in Smash. There are several reasons as to why. Maybe it’s because of the H-game origin. Maybe it’s because I think it’s claim to fame isn’t videogames, but rather anime (like Digimon). Maybe it’s because I heavily associate Fate with gacha games, which are slowly but surely killing the industry. Maybe it’s because I’m severely uncomfortable with the tendency to play fast and loose with history, including but not limited to: turning real-life people into waifus, lolis and traps, and butchering several mythologies. Fate just makes me uncomfortable and I’d rather stay as far away from it as possible.

Nominations: Prof HectorX5

 

[GoodGrief741]

So this is probably going to be a double post. Not even Sari can save me now.

Oh by the way, last day before the Top 7 gets locked down.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Mach Rider pre-Nero Claudius

Reaper (Overwatch) x276
Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x273
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x266
Concept: More DLC x265
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x260
Concept: SNK rep x210
Sephiroth x210

200 - 151


Ravio x180
Dark Matter x175
Professor Hector x173
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x165
Dante x155

150 - 101

Andy (Advance Wars) x150
Shy Guy x150
Concept: World of Light expansion x145
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x140
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x140
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x135
Kat & Ana x135
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x131
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Poochy x125
Ryota Hayami x125
Sly Cooper x125
Concept: Style Savvy rep x125
Concept: Boss Rush x120
Q*Bert x116
Amy Rose x115
Vaati x115
Brash the Bear x115
Hat Kid x110
Magikarp x109
Cranky Kong x105
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51


Tracer x100
Monster Hunter x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Boss: Kracko x85
9-Volt x69
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x65
Spyro x62


50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25


Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Ryu Hayabusa x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Noctis Lucis Caelum x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Reporter & Wrestler x10
[Rerate] 2B x10
Frogger x10
Adeleine (Kirby) x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Saber (Fate) x5
Tetromino x5
Yuri Lowell x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Reaper reaps what he sowed and takes first place from Grovyle’s grassy fingers. Meanwhile down at the bottom, SNK Rep and Sephiroth tie for sixth place.

Dante styles past 150 noms.

Cranky Kong hops over the 100 nom mark.

Today’s new challenger is Yuri Lowell, with 5 noms. Pretty surprised that we’ve never rated this guy before.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Nerwho Claudiwho
Chance: 0%
They aren't gonna put in real life historical people. Why are we rating him? Smh.

Really tho, he (she?) isn't even the face of the fate franchise. We would realistically be getting Saber. But you know what's even more realistic? Fate not getting into Smash at all.
"But it's extremely popular in Japan"
Yes, but anywhere else It's obscure or people think the franchise is literally an anime first. I don't give a flying **** if it's the gatcha over there or the "most popular franchise." (It blatantly isn't lmao) DLC has to sell. There going to want to appeal to people all over the world. There are dozens of characters who could do that job better. Also I don't think most Smash fans overlap with the Fate demographic so an inclusion definitely won't sit well with most people. Fate has also little to do with Nintendo. There's a Switch game coming? Okay but so is RE4 and Doom eternal and MP4 and Yoshi. All of which would be smarter to promote.

Want: 0%
I might even prefer getting another FE character. That atleast isn't a franchise that takes real life historical figures and turns them into bland anime waifus with swords.

Reimu: 6.88%
100 characters x5

 

[Neosonic97]

Nero "Red Saber" Claudius
Chance: 1%
At this point, we can't really say 'NEVER' to any character overall, but Nero Claudius' chances of getting in are pretty much non-existent considering that, as I stated when I predicted her in the first place, we're going to be getting Arturia (Otherwise known as King Arthur or 'Blue Saber') first. And until the fateful day that happens (Pun totally intended), Nero's simply not getting in. Before I continue on, though:

We would realistically be getting Saber.

They're actually both referred to as Saber in their respective series. Long story short, Saber is a class that the heroes of the past are placed in, specifically those that are proficient in swordsmanship. To differentiate the two, we either call them by their actual names (Nero and Arturia [Arturia is a gender-flipped King Arthur]) or the nicknames 'Blue Saber' and 'Red Saber'. Hell, Nero's design is based on Arturia's anyway. Fate is one of the more likely VNs to make it into Smash, though, after picks like Ace Attorney and Danganronpa, that is.

Want: ...eehhh... about 30% or so.
Nero would probably be my second choice for a Fate rep (Arturia is always going to be the first choice, she's pretty much the mascot of the Nasuverse as a whole, LET ALONE the Fate series), considering that she's the most popular of the three Fate/Extra heroes (Though not by that wide a margin, Tamamo is giving her stiff competition). Most likely though, if she DOES get in, she's going to be an Echo Fighter of Arturia with flame effects on her attacks and Aestus Domus Aurea as her final smash instead of Excalibur.

Reimu Prediction: 20%.

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5

Seriously, why do people think Lloyd "I'm sadly not even top 10 in recent Tales Popularity polls" Irving is going to get in over Yuri "I'm so popular, I got banned from Tales Popularity polls for being TOO popular!" Lowell?

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Ayyy Reaper has first place! I seriously have to make this support thread soon... Anyway,

Zero Percent Claudius
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

PROS
-She's hot?
NONE!

CONS
-Solely Eastern based
-Extremely obscure
-Not even the main character of the series
-So unpopular to the point where the Roman figure popped up first on Google before the actual character
-This will cause more confusion than hype.
-Pointless inclusion. Almost everything about this character is covered by some of the FE characters.

Do I really need to explain this? The nickname says it ALL. She's just as likely as the Badly Drawn Dog from the Impossible Quiz. This is by far one of the most random characters I've ever seen rated on this thread. (Maybe less random than Django and Hanafuda though.) At the end of the day, she's just an anime waifu with a sword, something we have loads of thanks to FE. She isn't even the main character of the series! The main character of the series barely even has a chance anyway! At least I'll be taking her before all of my least wanted section however.

Spoiler: If this

pops up on Google before

Spoiler: this,

we got a problem here.

Reimu: 3.62%

I'm gonna be nice and let Grovyle take first so I have enough time to make a support thread, so Magikarp x5

 

[Deleted member]

...WHO!?

Chance:
Doing some bare research, she's from some Japanese hit that never got ported to America. Gonna level with you all. I know so little about this to where I can't make too many assumptions here. I will say that the only Japan-only character in Smash Bros is Lucas and he's first party and in the base game. If we're talking DLC, it would have to have some stage presence around the world, if at all. That's my universal logic over these types of niche characters.

Want:
I don't even know what this is but I don't care. Fate/Stay Night is some "Japanese eroge visual novel game" according to the wiki. It took time to convince me Katalina might be a character. I liked her design but I'm not sure about anyone in Fate. My approach is to just not approach it.

"-So unpopular to the point where the Roman figure popped up first on Google before the actual character "

When I had to actually put in more than the name, I knew this was a really obscure character

 

[Deleted member]

I want my votes for Freddi Fish, but I gotta ABSTAIN on this. I just don't know much about him at all.

 

[Sid-cada]

Saber of Red

Chance - 0% - Wouldn't we get the original SaberFace instead of an imitator? I mean, the orignal Saber is so icconic, they have a character that has bonus damage against characters who look like her, which there are tons of. While I can see an alternate cosutme of some sort if the original got in, anything else I feel is not realistic.

Want - 35% - I know next to nothing about Fate itself, other than it features historical figures in a battle for the Holly Grail with supperpowers, with a tendency to genderbend them. I would rather a 3rd party I know more about.


Prediction

Reimu Hakurei - 3.34% - I have no idea...


Nominations

Dark Matter X5

 

[Ridrool64]

I... uh... I got nothin.

Chance: 0.1%. Unless they deliberately go for an out-of-nowhere pick to satisfy the gacha crowd, something tells me this won't be happening. I can't really imagine a reason to pick it, and apparently there's somebody else who's more known than Nero. It'd presumably be like Luigi making it into Smash 6 over Mario, or Ken staying while Ryu gets cut, or adding the President but not Olimar.

Want: 10%. ONLY has a 10% because she's not Arle competition. But aside from that, why? Why should this rando who isn't even the star of her series be playable? Frankly not convinced. Also, to sound a little hypocritical here, I'm not sure we need every video game series ever in Smash Bros. I'm not even going to bother talking about her merits, because I rarely feel like wiki-glances are enough to get enough of a feel for the character to properly rate them. If all I have is a by-the-books description, what good is that at determing how they'd play?

Ryu Hayabusa x 5, Reimu probably benefits a lot from Joker so 11.29%.

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Nero Claudius (Fate)

Chance: 1%
To be honest, if we're getting a Fate rep in Smash, chances are it's going to be Artoria AKA Blue Saber she's the iconic character of the franchise. Nero is more of a second choice for a Fate rep should Artoria made it in ahd she could potentially be her Echo Fighter. People really underestimate the Fate franchise here, not only is it popular in Japan, it's also quite popular in the West too, even if they started out with an anime adaptation. Plus, with Joker's inclusion, maybe there's a possibility of a Fate character appearing in Smash since there's an upcoming 15th anniversary of the franchise this month alongside Smash Bros' 20th anniversary (Fate's 15th anniversary happens 9 days after Smash' 20th anniversary, by the way).

Want: 30%
I do the like the design of Nero, to be honest. However, when it comes to having a Fate character in Smash, Artoria will be the first choice and Nero only comes second and I'm fine with that.

Nominations:
Noctis Lucis Caelum x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Nero

Chance: 0%
From what I'm hearing, this is another of those "big in Japan but never heard of elsewhere" characters. That doesn't sound good for her chances. Unlike Dragon Quest, where it's a cultural phenomenon in Japan but small outside with a massive legacy, I don't think Fate holds up that strong.

Want: 0%
Joker is the first character to get in Smash that I really know zilch about, I don't want that to be a reoccurring there with DLC. At least he has style and looks pretty cool, plus the whole stand-like mechanic will be cool. This character doesn't really stand out and I'd like to get some faces players have heard of instead.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I was half tempted to make this a double day with Saber, but I felt that she deserved her own day. Just gonna say again people sleeping hard on Fate in general, and this is from someone that is not even a big Fate fan. You all do know how big Fate and FGO are right?

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

"I thought this was Nero from DmC but apparently it's not" Claudius

Chance: 0% - Seriously, who even is this character? Based on reading other people's responses, I've learned the character comes from some gatcha game pretty much only popular in Japan. I don't see what this game has to do with Nintendo or gaming in general, so I can almost assuredly say that this will not happen.

Want: 0% - Can we not keep talking about putting primarily Japan-exclusive characters from gatcha games in Smash? The whole Katalina rumor awhile back was bad enough, but this series seems even worse. Turning historical figures into waifus and whatnot? Yea, I'll pass on that garbage.

Nominations:
Frogger x5