Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[PeridotGX]

All Third Parties.

Chance: 80%. It's very likely. Reggie implied this at the TGA, And in 4 most of the DLC newcomers were 3rd parties. They probably sell better than first parties too.

Want: 0%. There are very few 3rd parties I want, namely Maxwell (Scribblenauts), Tails, and Megaman X. None of those are happening, so I wouldn't care about any of the 3rd parties they do chose.

Noms: Maxwell x5

 

[Tetrin]

All third parties

Chance: 60%

I feel like the majority of the characters chosen as DLC would be third party, especially since Nintendo killed off half of their best bets with assist trophies and the like. As such, third party characters would probably reel in a lot of hype arising from surprise, curiosity, or a longtime admiration for a character, but more importantly, money. Third parties are no doubt expensive to include, but I think Nintendo is willing to roll that dice for at least 3/5 characters this time around.

Want: 70%

It baffles me as to why all third party picks would be the end of the world for some people. The character roster would still have over decently over 20% first party picks, so it's not really a third party "takeover" as some people insist. Plus, if Smash is a game of icons, I personally find it counterintuitive to prioritize niche retro characters over prominent/iconic/popular choices who've influenced gaming tremendously more than a one-off NES pick ever would. If it is all third party, however, I recommend they be from franchises that have proven themselves worthy of ousting first parties for a shot, not some obscure character with a very limited appeal.

I'd make an exception for Hollow Knight though since that game is a legitimate work of art that was made by only two people, and I'd say raises the bar for indie games substantially. No attempt at hiding my favorites here, clearly.

 

[3DSNinja]

Hollow Knight's Only Hope
Chance: 75%: It seems headed this direction. Plus they may want more companties involved isn't instead of 50 more Fire Emblem characters.
Want:95%: On one hand, this screws over BDee and Shy Guy. but then I can have a chance to get Hollow Knight or Tails of Geno or Banjo or Master Chief.
Nominations:
Shy Guy x5

 

[Sid-cada]

All 3rd Party DLC

Chance - 40% - I'll admit that having at least some 3rd parties makes sense. After all, 3rd parties tend to make the most hype additions to the game. That said, with Nintendo at the wheel, I find it hard to believe that at least one isn't a promotional pick. It's certainly well within the realm of possibility, but I think at least one Nintendo character will make it in.

Want - 35% - While I don't wholly hate third parties, I am rather picky on who gets in. I never really got into many third parties, as I only owned an XBOX 1 as a non-Nintendo console (two if you count my PC). I base it mostly on history and what I think they can bring to the table, and thus far I find it to be a mixed bag. I still have my most wanted as Nintendo, in fact. If it were to happen, I probably won't have a character to look forward to.


Predictions

Hollow Knight - 0.34% - Too new and minor...

Nominations

Dark Matter X5

 

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

Geez, the discussion for third party DLC is harsh, I thought this was interesting so why not, and to get out of the Square thread for a minute.

Third Party DLC: 60%

With they way the rumors are looking, it seems like we could be getting mostly third party DLC, and at this point why the heck not?! Most of the known and important Nintendo characters are already in the game, and some have minor roles such as Assist Trophies and other things. There are honestly no other Nintendo characters to be hyped about that should've been in base game. The only other ones I can see happening for Nintendo that could be DLC and would be hyped are Rex and Pyra, Bandana Dee, and maybe Edlegard .

Want: 85%
As far as base game goes, I've never been so happy with a cast of characters. I've got mostly everyone I wanted in Ultimate during the base game cycle this time around. There's only a handful of Nintendo first party characters that I would truly be excited for at this point, that are from exisisting franchises. Most of the characters that I would llike to see MORE SO as DLC are third party, and most of these third parties that I would like to see are from companies that's already in the game. There is one character from my list who isn't in the game that's not represented completely and that's Tecmo Koei. If they want Ultimate to be a major crossover, you may as well go with third party at this point.

Hollow Knight: 10%

Ten percent is just me being generous, uh if a pretty big indie character like Shovel Knight couldnt even get in as a playable character I don't anyone like Hollow Knight would. The reason I'm only giving it ten is because I do love that game and it's a freakin piece of art, and if you haven't played it yet, then please do so.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

All 3rd Party DLC

Chance: 85% - I think they're probably gonna go big or go home with this DLC, and to me that means all 3rd party characters. Based on Reggie's comments so far and what some of the leaks/insiders are saying, this is looking to be the case as well. Originally I thought it might be some kind of 3-2 ratio of first and third parties, but after Joker's reveal, I'm expecting a 3rd party sweep.

Want: 80% - I've lost hope for a lot of the 1st party characters I wanted, namely Isaac, Andy, and Mach Rider. I don't see any real chance at them being DLC; Porky's pretty much one of the only 1st party characters that's still on the table for me to be excited about, but his chances are still shaky at best. In all honesty there aren't really that many interesting 1st party characters left, so the possibility of some new heavy-hitting 3rd party characters excites me. Doomguy is probably my most wanted at this point, and I'm also rooting for Ryu Hayabusa.

Hollow Knight Prediction: 3%

Nominations:
Andy x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Concept: All DLC Chsracters Characters are Third Party

For the sake of the argument, this is only regarding the 5 characters expected from the Fighter Pass. The likelihood that any extra DLC characters such as Pirahna Plant will be 3rd party is a different ball game.


Chance: 99%
They opened their Fighter Pass with Joker. Consider the fact that until now, no new batch of characters had ever opened with a third-party. Snake only officially appeared on the tails of four newcomers, while Mega Man only got to show up after Villager debuted first. Even Ryu had to stand behind Mewtwo and other returning veterans before he could enter the ring.

In comparison to those icons, Joker's a character who hung out on the lower half of most aggregated speculation lists, mostly because of the sheer unlikeliness that Nintendo would have dipped down for a Persona character. Nintendo and Sakurai aren't stupid - they know that a character like this only inspires even wilder third-party possibilities, and they would not have shown him first if the rest of the line-up weren't precisely that.

No one left inside Nintendo (that's to say, any 1st-2nd party candidates left for Sakurai to choose from) is on Joker's level. Hell, I daresay that no one left inside Nintendo even reaches the downtrended simmer that expectations will inevitably fall to at the end of this DLC season. But outside of Nintendo, the possibilities are plentiful, and well-known to everyone else who managed to not lock themselves inside the Nintendo bubble.

Want: 100%
It's irrefutable that in terms of being an actual, unbiased representation of video gaming itself, Smash Bros. is not a perfect example, nor may it ever be.. But goddamn it, it's an ideal worth trying for, even if every significant character still missing stands outside of Nintendo's borders.


Prediction:
Hollow Knight: 2%

Nominations
Hat Kid: x5

 

[DaUsername]

All Third Parties Will Be DLC
Chance: 35%
While I think we'll get mostly third parties, I still think there's a good chance we'll get at least obe Nintendo character. Though if Spirits really are disconfrimations, then that knocks out hundreds of potential Nintendo characters.
Want: 65%
There's still some Nintendo characters I want, but I've been thinking. Outside of Spirits, most of the possible newcomers are boring choices like [new Pokémon], [any Fire Emblem character], and Sylux. So going all third party would probably be the better option here.

HK Prediction: 3%
Noms: Poochy x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Third Parties

Chance - 99%

I find that there's very little reason to believe we'll be getting any first party characters this time around. It's been heavily implied from Nintendo that every character involved in the DLC pack will be extremely unexpected, essentially meaning that none of them are going to be Nintendo owned. Besides that, pretty much every big Nintendo character left in the running has been Spirited Away.

Plus, it really seems like they're gunning moreso for big, current names that can be used to leverage recent releases into Smash sales and publicity rather than characters wanted within the Smash bubble.

Want - ABSTAIN

In general, the idea of having all third parties doesn't appeal to me whatsoever, but it doesn't surprise me at all. A majority of my most wanted characters at this point in time are still primarily first party, but are also spirits, essentially killing them off until we see otherwise. Joker's inclusion doesn't excite me at all either, resulting in my hopes for the Fighter's Pass, and its general third party selection, being pretty low.

It's a pretty hit or miss subject though. There's still a ton of third parties I'd love to see. Banjo and Kazooie, Ryu Hayabusa, Crash Bandicoot, pretty much every Namco Bandai character that isn't from Tales, Slime, Bomberman (deconfirmed), Rayman (spirited), etc. However, my hopes aren't exactly high for any of these.

It really is going to be a character by character thing here. The Fighter's Pass could be amazing in my eyes. The Fighter's Pass could also suck terribly. We'll just have to see how it unfolds.

Nominations:
Brash the Bear - 5x

 

[Scottfrankd]

All 5 fighters as Third Party

Chance: 70%

Given Reggie's comments and the reveal of Joker, a character from a series that is primarily Sony (sounds like a Final Fantasy situation again), it seems very likely to me. The only reason I think Smash 4's DLC wasn't totally third party was because of returning characters and squeezing in some publicity for Fire Emblem Fates at the time. Other than that, the other 3 were third party. I imagine third parties are also more likely to get the 'hype' reaction than Nintendo characters from the majority of people.

Want: 0%

Now then - unless we get a 2nd Fighter Pass with more Nintendo characters, then I do not want 5 additional third party characters in Smash. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't mind one more, but there are plenty of Nintendo characters that I want to see in Smash, and especially in this iteration of Smash, since I'm not so sure we will get this kind of roster again.

Hollow Knight: 0% chance, not gonna happen

 

[Idon]

All 5 fighters as Third Party:

Chance: 90%

Let's be real with ourselves.
Nintendo (as a business) isn't stupid.
They know what sells, what gets the people talking, what really gets people to pull out their wallet, and what that is is third parties. They extend to an entirely new demographic of potential consumers while exciting already existing and paying members. Reggie himself emphasized the "new" aspect to the characters, their "unexpected" nature, and how Joker was "emblematic" of the approach Nintendo and Sakurai are going on picking characters. Alone one might argue that it doesn't mean anything, but honestly with this amount of implication, you'd be hard pressed to find any other implication.

Want: 70%

I have a lot of 3rd parties I want as shown in the spoiler. I think that anything that increases the chances for this is pretty exciting. If they were all 3rd parties I wanted and liked or at least, don't hate, then I'd be all gung-ho about it.

However, I've been waiting for some Nintendo characters for longer than a decade (Lyn most of all), and if the fighter's pass is all 3rd party, then by all realistic means, I'll be waiting for far longer (at least another decade) and in a worst case scenario, forever. It's unfortunate but I think both Sakurai and Nintendo value Smash nostalgia and relevancy far more than I'd like them to.

And also, the same time, there's potential for a 3rd party character I won't like and at that point, I'll be stuck hearing about them and fighting against them for the rest of this Smash cycle and the rest of Smash's existence. I'd like to not be discussing Ike's matchup against sans from Undertale forever or listen to the endless memes attached.

On an even more personal note, the chances of any SMT rep (preferably Demi-fiend), which I've been gunning for as my no.1 for more than a decade, is pretty dead in the water now and probably will be, forever.

Spoiler

Oh right, the nominations... I dunno... 2B I guess deserves another shot after this whole Joker thing. so her I guess.

Nominate:

2B x5

 

[Lasatar]

The ability for Nintendo to fully maximise their playerbase:

Chance: 99.9%. No, seriously. I'd bet my right butt-cheek on this. There is absolutely no reason for Nintendo, who is picking the characters instead of Sakurai, I might add, would limit the Smash roster to include more Nintendo characters. No, they want more bucks. And how do they get more bucks? By getting more people to buy their stuff. And how do they get more people to buy their stuff? By pandering to different sorts of people than they're doing so currently. And that just so happens to mean that the DLC characters will be third parties. And not just any third parties. They're gonna be third parties that each pander to a different type of gamer, so to maximise Nintendo's potential playerbase. We've already got Joker who panders to JRPG enthusiasts and just hardcore Atlus fans, so what's next? Only time will tell. Oh, and another thing. The characters will probably have little to no history with Nintendo either, so you can just throw all your pre-existing rules for what makes a Smash character likely out of the window.

Want: 85%. Four of my most wanted characters are property of Nintendo, so I'd be a little disappointed that they wouldn't be added. Well, so what? None of them were getting in anyway. I also have a lot more most wanteds who aren't property of Nintendo, who actually have reasonable chances. And besides, even if none of them made it in, which might very well happen, if my logic above is Correct, Nintendo would pick characters of all sorts, meaning that there'd probably be at least one that I like (besides Joker, who I do very much like as well).

Nominations: Lora (Xenoblade) x5

 

[shocktarts17]

You know, even though I never come to debate other posts, I wouldn't have been offended if anyone came here to debate my tastes, more so after reading that small comment with Edelgard and Sylux, seemed polite to tell me you weren't going to write something mean-spirited or anything like that.

Haha as much as I do enjoy starting a good fight if you're going to lead that what you're saying is just opinion I can't really take issue with that, people are allowed to have their own opinions that's what the want section is for. If your chance section hadn't been so well written with several good points I might have said something but it's clear you didn't let your opinions affect your chance score.

 

[Cosmic77]

Third-party sweep

Chance: 40%
Regardless of what the rumors say, I think we're jumping the gun. We've only had one character revealed to us. Just one. We don't have any set pattern, nor do we have anything substantial to support the idea aside from "leaks" and a few comments from Reggie that could be interpreted a number of different ways. I'm playing it safe for now.

Want: 10%
Sorry, but I'm familiar with Nintendo more than anything. I'm all for a few suprises here and there, but I don't want most of the DLC characters to be from games I'm barely familiar with.

 

[FancySmash]

DLC, but we're only inviting guests

Chance: 90%
With all that's been said about the first DLC character, and the fact that basically every character after Joker has to be of a similar caliber to him, It's extremely likely that the next DLC characters will also be third party. I'm not even sure I expect marketing characters anymore (which I wouldn't really want anyways). We could maybe, maybe get a demanded 1st Party spirit upgrade, but that's assuming Spirits don't deconfirm, and the further into DLC we go, the more likely it is they deconfirm. Perhaps the largest detractor to this is whether or not the list Nintendo gave Sakurai only had third parties.

Want: 0%
Well, here come the people to call me out for hating third parties... I really don't dislike the idea of third parties in Smash. Sonic, Pac-Man, and Mega Man are some nice additions. But I don't want every DLC character to be third party. I'd prefer there be variety in the DLC. I'd love to see Rayman as playable. I'd also love to see Bandana Waddle Dee playable. I don't want to live in a world where one doesn't have a chance because it was arbitrarily decided they were only doing one kind of character addition to the game.

Predictions: Hollow Knight
Uh oh, this... is a literal who character for me. Hmm, they seem to be indie... and if Shantae and Shovel Knight had difficulties... 0.67%

Noms:
Professor Hector x3
Q*Bert x2

 

[Icedragonadam]

All DLC characters are 3rd Party

Chance: 99%

-I always thought this was going to be the case when DLC was first officially announced.
-They sell way more than 1st party DLC in general in fighting Games.
-Joker caused a lot of hype for the DLC pass and I doubt Nintendo would save a lesser c tier at best character for later.

Want: 100%

-Of course, they're hype characters.
-Especially if one of them is a Tales character like Lloyd, Yuri, or Velvet.

Hollow Knight Prediction: 0.66%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5

 

[Calamitas]

Fighter's Pass being all third party characters

Chance: 35%
I don't think it's impossible, but I don't see it happening. I can imagine that five third-party characters would cost quite a lot to license, and I don't see them putting that kinda money into this. Joker being the first DLC character to be revealed (outside of Piranha Plant) also isn't helping matters in my eyes, since I think they'd want to start with the biggest name - which in turn would mean that all following third-parties would "lesser" than him, which really limits options.

Want: 0%
Yeah, no. The only third-party characters I'd still want are Okami Amaterasu, Phoenix Wright, or someone from Bravely Default, and I don't see any of those having a big chance. And if the fighter's pass really consists of all third-party characters, I don't think I'll get it - having more Nintendo characters is just infinitely more worth it to me than third-party characters I have zero interest in.

 

[RileyXY1]

DLC is all third party

Chance: 40%
This is not impossible, but it's something I don't think is likely. As Calamitas said above, third party licensing would cost a lot of money, especially for 5 characters. This is especially the case if they want to get a character from a company that doesn't have representation in the game. Nintendo can also put in a character to promote an upcoming game, as they did with Corrin in Smash 4.

Want: 0%
I don't want this. I don't have a lot of third party characters on my wishlist (the only ones I want are Amaterasu, Blaze, Reimu, and Amy Rose, all of which I don't think are likely) and my three biggest desires for the roster, Kat & Ana, Ninten, and Saki Amamiya, are first party.

Nominate: More DLC x5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

All DLC 3rd Party
Chance: 45%
It's certainly a possibility, although Sakurai/Nintendo can be quite unpredictable at times. It's a little too early to be searching for patterns though, since we've only had 1 character revealed so far.

Want: 0%
I'd be fine with the majority of the DLC to be 3rd party, but I'd at least want 1 or 2 1st party slots, whether it be Dixie Kong, Elma, Rex, an Advance Wars character, a Rhythm Heaven character, or the like. As for the 3rd parties themselves, I would be beyond joyful if Phoenix Wright, Sora, Banjo, Geno, or Lloyd were to get in, but at the same time I would be indifferent to Erdrick or Rayman, and strongly don't care for Ryu Hiyabusa, Heihachi, or Doomguy due to my lack of connection with them.

 

[Cabbagehead]

All DLC is Third Party

Chance: 60%
Given the only semblance of a precedent that we have (that being Smash 4's DLC), I'm gonna go out on a limb and assume that Ultimate's DLC (well, the first wave, at the very least) is going to appear as if it will be 100% third-party, but then there will be one character who breaks the trend. After all, third-parties whose deservedness of being in Smash is debatable seem to be some of the most hype reveals for Smash fans. Even I will admit that DLC is an ideal opportunity to make some insane dream match-ups come true.

However, so long as Nintendo has literally anything that they want to promote, then they will definitely pull a Corrin and put a relevant character in Smash as advertising. But that being said, considering the third-party trend in Smash 4 was only broken for a promotion, there is the very real scenario where Nintendo prioritizes the marketing aspect of DLC over the self-serving promotion aspect. But I still have a glimmer of doubt that it will be 100%.

Also, if a second wave of DLC is announced, then the chance score above is going to drop to 0%, objectively. There's no way that a slew of 10+ newcomers all come exclusively from out-of-house.

Want: 0%

I am always happy for the people who get their favorite character in Smash, but I can seldom bring myself to get excited for third-parties. An entire wave of third-party DLC? That wave better specifically be Geno, Banjo, Rayman, Phoenix Wright, and the Prince from Katamari, to a T, or I won't care. And since I didn't list Joker, obviously, we're off to a great start, haha.

 

[PapillonXtreme]

All DLC Characters are 3rd-Party

Chance: 65%
With Joker being revealed as the first DLC Fighters, I think we're safe to assume that the DLC Fighters will all be 3rd-parties, since they emit so much hype from the fans. They would also sell way more than 1st parties do, so there's a chance that they'll go after them. However, getting the license would be hard, especially from a company that had no representation in Smash, plus there's also the possibility of including at least one 1st-party character (Gen 8 Pokemon, FE Three Houses, Sylux etc.), so I wouldn't get my hopes up that easily, if I were you.

Want: 0%
It'd be fine if, say, 3 out of 5 DLC Fighters are third-parties, but an all 3rd-Party DLC Fighters? No thanks. There are some Nintendo characters that I want in first before I could consider a third-party fighter getting in, honestly.

Nominations:
Noctis Lucis Caelum x5

 

[LYD]

all 3rd party DLC

Chance: 49%
I’m usually a bit optimistic of a person but it’s hard to expect any 1st parties at this point. Joker as the first reveal really did get everyone’s hopes down—including myself’s—as with such a start this DLC really looks like it will follow a similar format to that of smash 4.

Want: 1%
In my point of view Smash Bros. should have always been Nintendo oriented, I guess some iconic 3rd parties are okay, but I feel like Cloud, Joker, and Bayonetta really don’t fit with the seties’ theme. I mean sure 3rd parties do make sense but if it was up to me, we’d have Dixie Kong instead of Sonic, Sceptile instead of Snake, Skull Kid instead of Mega Man, Bandana Dee instead of Pac-Man and so on. But sure, even considering that 3rd parties are reasonable, which they really are, having DLC be exclusive to them is truly ridiculous I feel.

Nominations: Poochy 5x

 

[Tetrin]

I feel like Cloud, Joker, and Bayonetta really don’t fit with the seties’ theme.

Bayonetta isn't third party.

 

[RileyXY1]

Bayonetta isn't third party.

She is. She's owned by Platinum Games and Sega.

 

[Tetrin]

She is. She's owned by Platinum Games and Sega.

Bayonetta 2 is a game that Nintendo funded, and therefore they were given partial rights to that game in particular. Hence why Bayonetta is included in the game as a rep for Bayonetta 2 and not Bayonetta; it was exponentially less hassle for Nintendo. She's more like second party.

Sega and Platinum own the IP, but they aren't in charge of what it's published on. Nintendo is the only reason the franchise got a second installment and is still alive today, hence why all her newer games are Nintendo exclusives, and Sega's largely overshadowed anyway since it's involvement in the games have dwindled to middleman status.

Had Platinum declined her inclusion, her series would likely relapse into its state after Sega discontinued funding since Nintendo would almost definitely do the same, so there was really no way of getting out of the situation for Platinum.

So yeah, they did have to pay for her, but they do have partial rights to the franchise anyway, so her inclusion was basically no issue.

EDIT: You'll presumably bring up that Platinum is contractually obligated to make the games exclusive, but Bayo's inclusion in any Smash game hereafter is basically confirmed unless Platinum branches off and finds a new funder.

 

[3DSNinja]

Can we get to.my Hollow boi? I have a long rant about why he is likelier then you think

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Can we get to.my Hollow boi? I have a long rant about why he is likelier then you think

You know just to spite you no we can’t mwahahahah.

/s post coming soon.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

All third Party

35% chance

I am adamant about a second pass happening and potential echo fighters as dlc. I feel that Nintendo will eventually put in the TH, Gen 8, or XC2 Rep. There are viable characters for spirits in future waves (Dee, Elma, RH chars sans Rhythm Girl) or big ATs like Isaac or Waluigi. Basically, I can easily see us getting some first party stuff. We are going off a vague leak and one character.

Abstain want.

Nominating Sephiroth x5

Day over, Rate Hollow Knight and predict Mach Rider.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

All Third Party Characters

You know, I wouldn't mind this too much actually. Most of our prominent video game characters that haven't made it into Smash are inevitably going to be from other video game producers besides Nintendo. Going with a Lloyd Irving, Phoenix Wright, Banjo Kazooie, Crash Bandicoot, or a Spyro the Dragon wouldn't be a terrible option, and seeing any of these 4 as the final characters for the Final Pass would make my day. It surely is where Nintendo is looking, but I can't guarantee that there won't be ANY first party...

Chance: 80%

No Bandana Dee. RIP. This kind of is a big setback for me, because some of my personal most-wanteds are Nintendo franchise characters. Then again, depending on who gets picked for the DLC in the long run, I suppose I could live with all third parties...

Want: 40%

Nominations: Spyro x5.

Let's get this Spyro train rollin', CHOO-CHOO

 

[Sari]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 1%
Way too recent indie character with not enough history or popularity to justify their inclusion. I don't think an indie character is likely to appear for this DLC wave and if more popular indie characters like Shovel Knight or Shantae couldn’t make it in then I don’t see why Hollow Knight would.

EDIT: Just to clarify I know that Hollow Knight sold extremely well but even then I just can't see this happening since the DLC is shaping up to have characters from bigger and longer running franchises.

Want: 15%
Looks cool but I don't have much connection with Hollow Knight as I never played it. Also Quote is my main choice for an indie rep and after him I'd prefer Shantae, Hat Kid, or Madeline.

Mach Rider chance prediction: 7.84%

Nominations:
Sephiroth x5 (Gonna try and even out the schedule so we don't have 4 concept days in a row)

 

[CureParfait]

Hollow Knight

Chance- 5%
I think Hollow Knight appeared too recently to be DLC for Smash. I feel it is unlikely for an indie character to pop up in Smash as a non- Assist Trophy or non-Spirits.

Want- 1%
Hollow Knight looks cool design wise but I don't have much connection with Hollow Knight.

 

[3DSNinja]

the best metroidvania ever's protagonist
chance: 50%: Okay, let's start this. everyone will say that Hollow Knight is way too recent and too obscure. I object to this. the game came out before BOTW and a bit after Persona 5 meaning it is probably isn't too recent. And the game sold really well, bit more then 1 million copies sold. which is more then Kirby Star Allies did. Plus it was nominated for a Game Award and was one of the main indies in the Nindies showcase. and he is an out of left field pick. We all expect Steve or shovel Knight or Sans but instead we get Hollow Knight. Very shocking. Plus it would get Nintendo more support from Team Cherry.
Want:100%: Honestly only char I want more is Bandana Dee. He has such moveset potential and his game was arguably GOTY worthy. it is a true work of art. Play it now.
Nominations:
Shy Guy x5

 

[Cabbagehead]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 10%
At the very least, Hollow Knight is a critically acclaimed indie game that has sold really well. As a matter of fact, it had already crossed the million-sales threshold before it came to the Switch last year.

And, although I haven't gotten very far into the game myself, I'm confident that Hollow Knight has plenty of potential for a moveset. After all, the game is a Metroidvania, and typically, those games have plenty of unique power-ups strewn throughout. (Source: the two namesakes of the genre, who both have unique characters in Smash already).

However, Hollow Knight is still a pretty young game that hasn't even budded into a franchise yet. It isn't necessarily a minnow in this sea of gaming titans, but it isn't a whale, either. We haven't seen the longevity of Hollow Knight yet, so I'll be legitimately surprised if HK ends up becoming playable.

I'd also like to point out the obvious point that, as an indie character, Hollow Knight would have to resonate with Sakurai/Nintendo more so than both Shovel Knight and Shantae did. And now that we're in the much more ridiculous "DLC" phase of Smash speculation, Hollow Knight will have to contend with the likes of Quote, the OG indie character, and everyone's favorite character to hate for some reason and the quintessential big daddy of the indie scene, Minecraft Steve, among others.

Want: 5%
Not the most offensive character I can think of, but still not a character I care to see in Smash. Even as a game that I own and have sunk a few hours into, I just have too many characters that Nintendo actually owns on my wishlist to care about another third-party, let alone a spontaneous indie.

 

[Jomosensual]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 0 - Not going to happen. His game just came out in in 2017 and I feel pretty confident he won't be in it with him being that recent of a character. If there's a 2nd DLC pack I could see it. Also, being an indie character does a lot to knock down his chances with the two most popular ones leading up to this game being a spirit and an assist trophy.

Want - Abstain. Never played the Hollow Knight but I've only heard good things so I might consider it

Noms
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

The vessel

Chance: 1%
Of course if Sakurai made Shovel Knight an Assist then Hollow Knight wouldn't stand the slightest chance if he was in charge.

Nintendo's playing the game here however, so we don't really know how they would approach indies. They still don't have their chances upped that much tho. If Nintendo does actually go for the fighter pass being all third-party, strengthening their bond with those companies will be a big reason for it. Indie developers however are usually so small/loyal that they don't really have to strengthen their bond further. Even then, if they still would want to do that Assist Trophies can fulfill that same job. No indie company would complain about appearing in Smash in some way, no matter how minor.

Let's say Indie characters as DLC are still realisable anyway. Hollow Knight would stand a fair shot. His game made one of the biggest splashes out of all indie games on the Switch last year. And his moveset in his home game is practically made for Smash so if Nintendo were to chose him, Sakurai likely wouldn't be able to reject him. (assuming this is how the picking was done) Despite that he would still face big competition from notably Quote with his seniority and an Undertale rep with their way bigger popularity.

Want: 99%
Yeah, the Knight is probably my most wanted third-party at the moment and my personal pipedream pick. Hollow Knight was the game I spent the most time with in 2018. And it has become one of my favourites. I fell in love with its world, characters, gameplay, atmosphere, music, artsyle, lore, you name it. There were the occasional moments of frustration but that was to be expected with a game like that.

Like I said, his moveset is made for this game and would be a potential main for me if he were recreated faithfully. Also, despite being a souless husk of void, the knight has this certain adorableness to him which I'd love to see interact with the cast. With how unlikely he is, I would still be overjoyed if he makes it in as an AT.

Mach Rider: 6.47%
100 characters x5

 

[Artix]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 0.5%
With Shovel Knight as an Assist Trophy and Shantae as a Spirit, I highly doubt we're getting an Indie character in Smash as DLC, much less a recent one. Sure, his game might be successful, but other than that, there's nothing going for him. He still has to compete with other known Indie characters like Quote, Sans and Reimu, who are more well-known than Hollow Knight.

Want: 0%
The only 'Knight' I want in Smash is Shovel Knight and he became an Assist Trophy, which sucks, but I'm still okay with it. Hollow Knight, however, I have no real attachment to the character and there are other third-party characters that I want more than him.

Mach Rider Prediction: 5.13%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5

 

[shocktarts17]

Hollow Knight
Chance: 1%
Using an indie rep for DLC seems pretty unlikely. They aren't big names that will draw people in like the major 3rd parties and they aren't homegrown so there is little direct benefit for Nintendo to select an indie character. On top of this, while I think Hollow Knight probably does mean more to Nintendo than Undertale or Minecraft since it came so early in the Switch's life and posted huge sales, there is no denying that Undertale, Minecraft, or Cave Story all have Hollow Knight beat in some area that would factor into a character getting in.

Want: 25%
I think that Hollow Knight would be my third choice for an Indie rep, and my first choice of those left. He has a great design and comes from a fun game (that I am awful at) but I still have other priorities for DLC and I'm not yet convinced an Indie rep should get in over some of the other names being tossed around.

Prediction: Mach Rider 4%
Nominations: Ravio x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Hollow he may be, the support of his fanbase is not.

Chance: 15%. Not very confident in many indies right now, and at least two of them, Minecraft and Undertale, have the clout and legacy to overshadow him. Poor guy, though I do think he has at least a better chance than Shantae or Shovel Knight.

Want: 20%. While I have no hands on experience with the game, I am giving him a 20% anyway for two reasons. The first is because I've been hearing glowing things about his game (though this makes me worried that, like with Cave Story, it won't live up to the hype for my tastes, even if I understand why it's popular), and because he isn't Arle competition, so Hollow Knight at least has that going for him.

Ryu Hayabusa x 5. Mach Rider got run over by the spirit stick, so they're probably looking at a 2.81% chance.

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Hollow Knight

Chance: 2% - I'm being generous here. The game sold well, but that doesn't change the fact the Knight is from an indie game. As of right now, it doesn't look like any indie character is getting in as a playable fighter any time soon. So far, Shovel Knight got the closest by becoming an assist trophy, and that was a surprising yet huge achievement on its own. I think this moment pretty much solidified that indie characters won't be happening in this game, but who knows about future installments? Even then, Hollow Knight has way too much competition; anyone who says otherwise is kidding themselves.

Want: 15% - While I haven't finished the game yet, I've very much enjoyed what I've played of it. That being said, I can't say I've felt any real need to have the Knight added to Smash. Just because I enjoy a game doesn't mean I immediately think to myself, "This should be in Smash." And if I'm being perfectly honest, Shovel Knight undoubtedly should be the first playable indie character added if they decide to add one. He's incredibly popular and has essentially become the face of indie games, and frankly, he deserves it more.

Mach Rider Prediction: 7%

Nominations:
Frogger x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Empty Knight
Chance: 5%
Want: 70%

I need to play this game. Hollow Knight is a very popular and extremely successful indie game created by Team Cherry. Which can also spell doom for his chances. The closest we got to a playable indie is Shovel Knight, but he became an assist trophy. Shantae is also screwed, so Hollow Knight is now my most wanted indie character. He doesn't have a spirit or AT, so he's still up for contention, which is why he has a 5%. I think the right time to bring him in would be a Fighter Pass 2. His game has great soundtrack and a nice atmosphere, so I'm gonna get around to playing it soon. He also has amazing moveset potential, and can even steal the souls of his enemies to heal himself. Sounds like someone similar in my most wanted that'll probably never happen!

Mach Rider: 1.32%

Reaper x5