Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[CureParfait]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance- 0%
Given Arms' and Rex got seemingly disconfirmed for being revealed too late. I feel like there might be a good chance Gen 8 was revealed too late for the current DLC pass as well. I see a Gen 8 rep being in a hypothetical season 2 of the Fighter's Pass though.

Want - 50%
For the Gen 8 Pokemon it depends if they are a starter or not. If it they are a starter then I don't think I want it but if they aren't a starter I won't mind having a Gen 8 Pokemon rep.

 

[3DSNinja]

Gen 8 pokemon
Chance 25%: If there is a wave two it's happwning . But Wave 2 might not happen.
Want: 0%: I really don't want this. I would prefer Marowak or Darkrai or Sceptile or Grovyle. Actual pre-existing pokemon that would bring variety. This would just be a cash grab.
Nominations:
Shy Guy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Shill pick part three: anything can happen!

Chance: 7%
I’m expecting all third party characters, and to be honest I think even Nintendo will have realized people don’t react well to characters they don’t even know. Still, it’s an underdog possibility.

Want: 00000000%
I can’t underscore this enough. Let characters sink in the collective minds of fans. Let people naturally decide whether they like a character or not. Smash is a product of its own, not an advertisement. Jeeze...

Nominations: No fan favorites x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Grovyle pre-Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon

Ravio x205
Dark Matter x200
Professor Hector x189
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x185
Dante x175
Andy (Advance Wars) x175
Shy Guy x165
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x165

200 - 151

Concept: World of Light expansion x160
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x160


150 - 101

Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x150
Ryota Hayami x150
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x149
Kat & Ana x140
Sly Cooper x135
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Concept: Style Savvy rep x130
Poochy x125
Hat Kid x125
Q*Bert x125
Magikarp x124
Concept: Boss Rush x120
Cranky Kong x120
Amy Rose x115
Vaati x115
Brash the Bear x115
Tracer x111
Concept: Undertale rep x105
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101


100 - 51

Monster Hunter x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Boss: Kracko x85
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x75
9-Volt x74
Spyro x67


50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Ryu Hayabusa x30
Noctis Lucis Caelum x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Yuri Lowell x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Frogger x20
[Rerate] Erdrick x20
Decidueye x19
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
[Rerate] 2B x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Reporter & Wrestler x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Tetromino x10
Adeleine (Kirby) x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Ravio and Dark Matter reach 200 noms. Ravio wins the tie and remains at first place. Andy ties with Dante for 5th place. Arthas Menethil ties with Shy Guy for 7th.

Forgot to mention this the last day, but World of Light expansion, Arthas Menethil, and 100 characters all crossed 150 noms.

Concept: Undertale rep acts past 100 noms.

Yuri Lowell gets out of the under 25 club.

And here goes the regularly scheduled reminder that FancySmash and Ze Diglett have extra noms.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Shillmon
Chance: 40%
I don't see timing being that huge of a deal. There were about 11 months between when Incinaroar was chosen and the release of Sun & Moon. Gen 8 will likely release around the same time of the year gen 7 did and the DLC was finalised in November of last year, making a similar timegap. Regardless another Pokémon would probably not really be considered a suprise or a "must have" and Pokémon might not also no longer need the promotion at this point.

Want: 0%
Why would I want a character we haven't even seen yet? I do not want to see another Pokémon on the roster and I'm not that much of a fan of promotional picks to begin with.

More DLC: 41.75%
100 characters x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Well, 2 months seems like about long enough. Time to let go of these noms I've been sitting on.

Gotta Shill 'Em All
Chance: 5%
Honestly, see my Melmetal rating from a while back. (Christ, it really has been a long time since I've posted here...) TL;DR, I really don't see Pokemon DLC happening due to A.) the timing of Gen 8's hypothetical release not really supporting it and B.) there already being ten Pokemon in the game as is - granted, that's eight if you count Trainer as one rep like Nintendo seems to, but it's still a ton. I can only really see this happening if they release additional character DLC outside of the Fighter Pass, which could happen, but even then, I still wouldn't bet on us getting an eleventh Pokemon as DLC. If we do get a promotional first-party character, I'd sooner expect another Fire Emblem rep (which I don't think is exactly likely either, FYI).
Want: 0%
Look, I love Pokemon more than almost anything else in the world, but even I recognize that the series has more than enough representation as is. The only silver lining I could see to getting yet another Pokemon from a game we haven't even gotten to play yet would be the very, very slim possibility of getting Poke Floats back as DLC, but even that wouldn't really be worth it. Plus, the trend of adding a Pokemon every game just to advertise the latest generation really got old with Incineroar. Enough is enough! Give characters some time to prove themselves as worthy additions before just shoving them onto the battlefield for the sake of $$$.
...I swear I've used that line before...

Assuming he hasn't been done already, I dump all 10 of my noms into Gooey (Kirby). Hey, we've hit the bottom of the speculative barrel already, might as well add someone who'll really drum up some riveting discussion.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

The only ones who did predictions for Gen 8 were me and Artix . We'll see how this turns out soon.

THAT BOWLING PIN POKÉMON FROM THE WHATSITSNAME REGION
Chance: 15%
Want: 80%

Generation 8 isn't even out yet. It should be coming out later this year, but we don't even know the names of the games yet. Rumor has it that it should be revealed next direct. We know only two Pokémon of this generation: Meltan and Melmetal. (Who we already rated) The chances are low because the gen isn't even officially revealed yet, and we have a huge amount of Pokémon in the game already. I feel like the chances will increase for a fighters pass 2 if that happens. I'm always up for more Pokémon, as long as they choose an interesting choice, and not a stupid Pokémon, like a chair Pokémon, or a bathtub Pokémon. I'm excited to see what this generation has in store for us in terms of options for Smash, and once those games come out, I will probably find a new Pokémon to start nominating.

More DLC: 52.75%

Spoiler: Nominations:

x5

 

[RileyXY1]

The only ones who did predictions for Gen 8 were me and Artix . We'll see how this turns out soon.

THAT BOWLING PIN POKÉMON FROM THE WHATSITSNAME REGION
Chance: 15%
Want: 80%

Generation 8 isn't even out yet. It should be coming out later this year, but we don't even know the names of the games yet. Rumor has it that it should be revealed next direct.

Spoiler: Rumor also has it that the games are called:

Pokemon Crown and Scepter according to a recent leak.

We know only two Pokémon of this generation: Meltan and Melmetal. (Who we already rated) The chances are low because the gen isn't even officially revealed yet, and we have a huge amount of Pokémon in the game already. I feel like the chances will increase for a fighters pass 2 if that happens. I'm always up for more Pokémon, as long as they choose an interesting choice, and not a stupid Pokémon, like a chair Pokémon, or a bathtub Pokémon. I'm excited to see what this generation has in store for us in terms of options for Smash, and once those games come out, I will probably find a new Pokémon to start nominating.

More DLC: 52.75%

Spoiler: Nominations:

x5

Spoiler

Crown and Scepter were proven fake. They said that the games would be revealed 1 or 2 weeks after New Year's.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Spoiler

Crown and Scepter were proven fake. They said that the games would be revealed 1 or 2 weeks after New Year's.

Ok. Will edit my post.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Literally Who

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Well, in this case, "Literally Who" is a correct description.

We know nothing about Gen 8. At all. All we know is it's coming 'at some point.' And it'll probably use the same formula as before, so we'll get three starters, and your way-too-friendly-and-not-rivalrous-at-all rival will get the one that is strong against yours.

I just can't see it though. Rex and Spring Man, despite seeming like locks, were both pretty harshly disconfirmed for being too new, so Cena's the newest character in the game. It takes a bit of time to get to know characters, so I'd hate for some character to get in as a 100% shill, with no feedback taken. Also, let's shove in the standard "Pokémon has plenty of representation already" argument as well.

But I want to focus on this shillmon argument. In all of Smash history, there have only been 2 (well, one and two halves) characters added to smash before their games released. didn't exist anywhere before they threw him into Smash (and evidently most FE fans dislike him, so his fanbase is 100% due to Smash), and then and were only out in Japan before they came to Smash; the western releases hadn't happened yet. Now, there's something connecting all of these characters - they're all Fire Emblem. No other franchise gets shilled through Smash. The only thing Pokémon is guaranteed is that it will get a newcomer from the latest game every game, which will usually be a starter unless there's a breakout mon they base all of the marketing upon (and even then, it's not guaranteed: ask the Mimikyu fans). We got him already.

We're not going to see the starters yet. Even if they do reveal the Gen 8 games in the next direct, they'll give us this gen's Pika clone and/or this gen's mascot mon, and probably finad out about this gen's legendary boxart mons. We'll also probably get the basic starter silhouettes. I'm not expecting to see the starter final forms, which would be the most likely addition to Smash, until they get leaked about 4-6 months later. That means we won't even know who the most likely options are until around September at the earliest (and that's if they drop Gen 8 info next month. If we're not getting anything until E3, we probably won't know the starter final forms until December or so), by which point I expect we'd have gotten the fourth of our 5 characters released, and probably got the fifth teased. How much would GameFreak like it if Sakurai ended up being the first one to show one of the starter final evos? And then who would even choose the other two starters when they start playing the game?

I don't want to get a character because they're a shill. Granted, both of my wanted characters are older (one of whom is still a one game wonder...), but I feel it's better if there's some legacy to go off of. We should be able to say that a character deserves a slot for more than just "Ninty hopes we buy the game."

And the fact that an all 3P pack is likely. But I feel that Pokémon and Fire Emblem are the only franchises that could kill that one, more so FE. I guess we'll have that argument in a few days.

 

[SPEN18]

Gen 8 Mon
Chance: 9%
Competition is stiff and DLC seems to be leaning towards third parties. However, we've seen Pokemon get special treatment before, and so it probably shouldn't be counted out completely.

Want: 0%
Another no-brainer zero. It'd be making the same mistake that they made with Incineroar and Corrin. IMO, in most cases a character should be around for at least a few years before even being considered for Smash. It'd be hard to say that I want a character that I don't even know about yet, or one where we haven't seen if it has built a legacy worthy of being fully represented in Smash. Give Gen 8 a few Spirits like they did with Let's Go, and if there's a mon that's really iconic/important then it'll still be a good choice for Smash 6.

Noms: Andy x5

 

[Perkilator]

Spoiler

Crown and Scepter were proven fake. They said that the games would be revealed 1 or 2 weeks after New Year's.

Spoiler

Gotta Shill ‘Em All

Chance: Unknown
Want: Abstain

We literally know nothing of Gen VIII at the moment. I’m gonna wait until we have proper information to decide whether or not I want a Gen VIII Pokémon.

Noms: Any fighter x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler

Crown and Scepter were proven fake. They said that the games would be revealed 1 or 2 weeks after New Year's.

Crown and Scepter? Wow, those are really stupid names. No wonder it’s fake.

Spoiler

View attachment 188743

Gotta Shill ‘Em All

Chance: Unknown
Want: Abstain

We literally know nothing of Gen VIII at the moment. I’m gonna wait until we have proper information to decide whether or not I want a Gen VIII Pokémon.

Noms: Any fighter x5

Dude, you can’t nominate any fighter.

 

[Deleted member]

THE HATEFUL EIGHT

Yes, this was the best image I could think of

Chance :
Based on the typical Pokemon release cycle, it seems like Gen 8 will release in late 2019, with a reveal happening in around a month. Joker’s inclusion and the rumours of Erdick would seem to suggest that the DLC was decided around at least mid 2018. This means that if a Gen 8 Pokemon is chosen, it would have been as a reserved slot sort of scenario to promote the games, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility. However, the Pokemon character would have to be decided and revealed very late, perhaps before the game isn’t even out which seems like a risky move. We don’t know which Pokemon is gonna end up being the popular pick. That and this DLC seems to be focusing on big third parties, so it’s uncertain whether we’ll even get any first-parties, especially such a recent one. This seems more likely for a potential second season.
5%

Want :
I mean, we literally know none of the Pokemon in gen 8. Pokemon tend to have neat movesets, but I’d rather not get a blatant shill character as DLC. I’d hope they’d at least have a cool design. Plus Pokemon has a ton of characters already.
5%
Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Flyboy]

Gen 8 Pokemon
Chance: 0%
Ah, yes, one of the metaphorical boogeymen people kept bringing up when it was realized that Nintendo had a hand in picking the DLC. The thing is, if Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is considered too late for DLC, how will characters who haven't even been concepted be a thing? It's ridiculous. It makes no sense to me. It's the same deal with Edelgard. With Reggie's comments, I really don't think there's a chance, especially because every character comes with a stage and music. Incineroar didn't even come with a stage. New series' are much more likely here, or characters that would absolutely bring a new stage with them, and I don't think a Pokemon would.

Want: 5%
I'm down for any interesting character but again I'm holding out for new, unrepped series. I really feel that so many people aren't seeing the whole picture of what a Fighter Pack is and what it could mean. New games with new music and stages and characters, or underrepresented games with new stages and characters. That's what I want.

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 25%
The biggest argument about it is that it'd be too new, as in, we haven't even heard of any Pokemon from this generation at all. Still, if any series can pull off getting a DLC character despite its newness, it's Pokemon. Rex and Spring Man might be older, but their franchises are just blips in comparison to the current largest media franchise in the world. A new Pokemon is still possible, and would ultimately sell better than any other newbie, but it isn't too likely.

Want: Abstain
I really can't vote on a character that hasn't been revealed at all. Hopefully we'll get some Gen 8 news soon, but until then, it's too unknown for me to like or dislike a potential character.

 

[Ridrool64]

We don't even have a name for the games.

Chance: 10%. I'm not very confident in these guys since the DLC season is partly still Gen 7's time, and still Gen 8 appears to have nothing to work with. Obvious wave 2 material, but I'm not sure that will happen, and the Fighter's Pass has a good chance of being all third parties.

Want: How am I supposed to give anything other than an abstain? I'd give a 0 if I didn't want it, or a 20 if I didn't want it but none of them were Arle competition, but I have nothing to go off of. I think they have potential to be unique because they're Pokemon, and that's all I can really guess.

Ryu Hayabusa x 5. More DLC is going to be split between the optimists and cynics: I, for one, am erring on the side of cynical. 10.59%.

 

[Nemuresu]

Another one of these:
Chance: 5%-We literally know nothing about Gen 8, not even the names. And stated above, Incineroar didn't even come with a new stage in Ultimate, and that's not without saying that Pokémon already has 7 stages in the game (Saffron City, Pokémon Stadium 1 and 2, Spear Pillar, N's Castle, Lumiose City and Kalos League).
Want: 0%-If you're gonna throw a new pocket monster, at least give me a chance to know them. Needless to say, that I'm not a big Pokémon player in Smash.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 0.01%

-We still don't anything about these games yet.
-Still think all DLC will be 3rd parties, and even if there was 1 1st party character I personally think it will be Porky Minch TBH.

Want: 0%

-We don't know new Pokemon yet.
-Please, just no more Pokemon!

More DLC Prediction: 41.22%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5

 

[LYD]

Generation 8 Pokémon

Chance: 4%
Considering ARMS and Xenoblade Chronicles were too late to the party it’s safe to assume that it will be the case for Pokémon too. The only chance really for a potential wave 2, but even that’s not certain so I find it quite unlikely.

Want: 64%
I’m a big Pokémon fan so it’s very likely I’ll enjoy whatever Pokémon they decide to promote next gen. Plus it’s Nintendo’s second biggest franchise, so a new character would be welcomed by me, personally.

Nominations: King Boo x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Pokémon Crown & Pokémon Scepter or whatever other fake leaks there are for this generation:

Chance: 15% - If Nintendo wants to advertise for any of their upcoming titles, this seems like a likely choice since it releases while Smash's DLC will still be ongoing. However, we may also get all 3rd-parties instead, or ads for other titles...and, it might be too new for them to have decided on a Gen 8 Pokémon as DLC...so I'll just leave my rating at this.

Want: 50% - I love Pokémon so any Pokémon addition is fine by me. Of course, we don't even know what Gen 8's Pokémon will be yet, so...I must refrain from going full 100%, even if I generally like most Pokémon in each generation anyway...also because I'd like Gengar, Raichu, Mimikyu, or Team Rocket (Jessie & James as a Pokémon Trainer-style character - you play as Meowth and can switch out your partner, them being either Koffing/Weezing, Ekans/Arbok, or Wobbufett) to be the next Pokémon fighter additions.

Nominations:

Creeper x3
Ninten x2

 

[Sid-cada]

Pokemon from Gen. 8

Chance - 0% - I think that the fact that Spring Man and Rex were so new that they couldn't be considered as fighters should be telling. While we don't know the specifics of the development of Gen. 8, I think it's safe to say that its simply too far out to be considered.

Want - 0% - Typically, if I feel like I don't know enough about this, I'd give a 50%. In this case, however, I'm fine with Pokemon as of now and would really want to have a remaining slot to something else. It being a current unknown chosen mostly because of advertising makes this really unappealing to me.


Predictions

More DLC - 14.24% - I have no idea.

Nominations

Dark Matter X5

 

[Jomosensual]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 30 - I was going to be a lot higher on this pre Joker, but after I'm not so sure. We did just get Incineroar and we don't have pokemon reps for every generation, so there's a good chance they might just pass this one over

Want: 30 - Kinda hard to say because it depends on how the Pokemon looks and plays, but I can't say I'd be totally against it.

Noms:
Cranky Kong x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance - 3%. We probably aren't getting this, at least in pack 1. With Rex denied for being too recent, what shot does something not revealed have?

Want: 50%. which is a shame, because I really want another one. I was really dissapointed with the choice of Incineroar, so I would like another shot at a good and original character.

Noms: Maxwell x5

 

[Neosonic97]

Generation 8 Pokemon

Chance: 0%. I normally don't give anything a straight 0, but in this case, I REALLY cannot see a Gen 8 Pokemon getting in, for one simple reason:

The 8th generation of Pokemon does not exist yet, unless you count Meltan and Melmetal.

Since there IS no Gen 8 to represent, there's simply no way we're getting a Gen 8 Pokemon for DLC unless there's a second wave of DLC. In this case, I really think that if there IS going to be a Gen 8 Pokemon, it's going to be in the next Smash game when there is one.

Want: Abstain. No details means no opinions. There really isn't anything else to say on the matter. No, seriously.

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5.

 

[RileyXY1]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 2%
It's like Corrin, except worse. We don't know of any 8th gen Pokemon. Also, the timing is not right for this. Gen 8 is coming out this fall, meaning that if one of the spots in the Fighter Pass does belong to a Gen 8 mon, then it would have been decided before Gen 8 even comes out or is even announced. They have no idea which ones are going to be popular. It may backfire horribly.

Want: Abstain
I can't answer this. I don't know about Gen 8 Pokemon so I can't say for certain which one will be the best fit to be playable. I guess we'll have to wait until the game is announced and we start getting information.

Nominate: Kat & Ana x5

 

[DaUsername]

Unnecessary Character
Chance: 0.5%
Pokémon (and Fire Emblem) are usually exceptions to the "too recent" rule, but this might be pushing it. Plus,I highly doubt we'd get a character that most people don't even know about yet.
Want: 0%
Pokémon has more than enough characters, as I've said before. And seriously, why would I want a character that I know literally nothing about?

More DLC prediction: 35%
Noms: Erdrick x5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Pokemon, the 8th Generation

Chance: 4% - From what I hear, Gen 8 isn't out yet, but Pokemon's pretty big so it could be a possible promotional pick if they decide to go that route. However, since hardly anything is revealed from Gen 8 at this point, I seriously doubt this will happen.

Want: 0% - This is like Corrin but even worse considering no one knows anything about Gen 8. I really don't want promotional picks to begin with, and I really am not keen on more Pokemon. Incineroar is already a polarizing pick for many, so I don't even want to witness the backlash should they choose one Gen 8 Pokemon over another when nobody knows which ones will be popular. The whole thing is just wrong on so many levels.

Nominations:
Frogger x5

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Chance 20%

This really depends when it will be (for example sylux is out of the running since prime 4 got delayed) and if they will get the Corrin treatment or not and for those saying this would be worse than Corrin we got a regular old piranha plant as playable and that’s definately a 0% chance before that reveal for everybody so anything is possible

Want 50%

I always welcome Pokémon reps it’s not 100% because we got more than enough for now.

 

[FancySmash]

Pokemon Advertising version and Pokemon Profit version

Chance: 5%
If any first party character gets in to the 5 slots allotted for DLC, other than the weed with teeth, it'll be a character that was solely added to advertise a coming game. Some used to say Sylux, before Prime 4 was pushed back, some would say Porky, as a Mother 3 localization advertisement. Nearly everyone would say Fire Emblem Three Houses rep, because of course it'd happen, it happened in Smash 4. Then there's Gen 8. While I think it's likely as one of the two to get pushed for, between it and FEH, I don't think it's nearly as likely as Fire Emblem simply because Nintendo knows Pokemon will sell regardless of if it's blatantly shoved in our face in Smash. Then there's also consideration of whether or not we'll get non third party characters this time around, and Confucius says it's not likely.

Want: 0%
With every Pokemon previously in Smash already here, and getting a new one (regardless of whether the majority welcomes incenaroar or not), there's no reason to get a new Pokemon. Even as a Pokemon fan myself, I think we are absol-utely fine where we are for Pokerepresentation.

Predictions:
More DLC? Hmm, I wanna remain optimistically pessimistic about this chance. 23%

Noms:
Q*Bert x3
Professor Hector x2

 

[RouffWestie]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 10%
It would mean Game Freak went to him at the right time with the exact plan they had in mind for the new character. I don't think that's impossible, but I doubt they're planning that far in advance.

Want: 0%
I am almost positive I won't pay any attention to Gen 8. I feel like I've lost any interest in Pokemon honestly. There's very very very little that could be feasibly done to rekindle my interest in the series.

 

[Artix]

Gen 8 Pokemon

Chance: 15%
While it is likely that we're getting a Gen 8 Pokemon, I don't think they would do it in this wave of DLC, especially since we haven't heard anything about it yet. Sure, they could do what they did to Greninja, but the thing is, the concept art isn't even out yet, so how would they know who to pick? Still, it is likely we're getting a Gen 8 Pokemon, but the way it is now, I'd say they'll be somewhere around the 4th or 5th DLC character.

Want: 0%
We've got more than enough Pokemon in Smash, to be honest. While I would welcome a Gen 8 Pokemon with open arms, I certainly don't need another one. Give the other series a chance for once.

More DLC Prediction: 20.77%

Nominations:
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Pokemon Advertising version and Pokemon Profit version

Chance: 5%
If any first party character gets in to the 5 slots allotted for DLC, other than the weed with teeth, it'll be a character that was solely added to advertise a coming game. Some used to say Sylux, before Prime 4 was pushed back, some would say Porky, as a Mother 3 localization advertisement. Nearly everyone would say Fire Emblem Three Houses rep, because of course it'd happen, it happened in Smash 4. Then there's Gen 8. While I think it's likely as one of the two to get pushed for, between it and FEH, I don't think it's nearly as likely as Fire Emblem simply because Nintendo knows Pokemon will sell regardless of if it's blatantly shoved in our face in Smash. Then there's also consideration of whether or not we'll get non third party characters this time around, and Confucius says it's not likely.

Want: 0%
With every Pokemon previously in Smash already here, and getting a new one (regardless of whether the majority welcomes incenaroar or not), there's no reason to get a new Pokemon. Even as a Pokemon fan myself, I think we are absol-utely fine where we are for Pokerepresentation.

Predictions:
More DLC? Hmm, I wanna remain optimistically pessimistic about this chance. 23%

Noms:
Q*Bert x3
Professor Hector x2

I’m not sure Nintendo is confident in Pokémon selling well without Smash advertising. They have been shoehorning Pokémon reps without the games being out for two games now.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I’m not sure Nintendo is confident in Pokémon selling well without Smash advertising. They have been shoehorning Pokémon reps without the games being out for two games now.

Nothing was shoehorned in, dude.

Sakurai chose the idea to represent the latest Generation, but only if the characters were interesting. In other words, they had to have actual merits to get in. If Greninja didn't actually become fast for him to envision, there wouldn't be a new Pokemon that game. Same if Incineroar nor Decidueye worked out. Both had merits, but Wrestling was the only reason Incineroar got in. There was nothing to even shoehorn in. Nor shill picks(the closest one was kind of Corrin, and he almost didn't make it in either. He was lucky the team saw unique potential in him. Roy also got in for advertising-related reasons, but also cause he could be interesting with a separate but similar mechanic to Marth's).

You need to seriously let this go. It's an agenda and a grossly misinformed one at that. So far zero Pokemon were added for the sake of advertisement. Unless you want to count the actual Pokeballs at best. Not even Pokemon Trainer having a Leaf costume counts, as she wasn't really there for any reason other than to represent both kinds of general Trainers, male and female. Him name-dropping Leaf might've been to help promote Pokemon Let's Go, but not her actually being there. It's fine you don't like Incineroar being in, but making false statements is stooping really low and making you look really bad. You just need to accept the reality of the situation; they got in due to being interesting. Without that, they had no actual chance.

You also seem to be forgetting that he wants to represent a lot of the latest and relevant stuff. That's why it isn't shoehorning in in any way. He also does this. You can argue a ton of characters are shoehorned in if you are using "relevant" as a reason, since that's really what Greninja and Incineroar had in their favor. Right timing is pretty much what relevancy is.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Nothing was shoehorned in, dude.

Sakurai chose the idea to represent the latest Generation, but only if the characters were interesting. In other words, they had to have actual merits to get in. If Greninja didn't actually become fast for him to envision, there wouldn't be a new Pokemon that game. Same if Incineroar nor Decidueye worked out. Both had merits, but Wrestling was the only reason Incineroar got in. There was nothing to even shoehorn in. Nor shill picks(the closest one was kind of Corrin, and he almost didn't make it in either. He was lucky the team saw unique potential in him. Roy also got in for advertising-related reasons, but also cause he could be interesting with a separate but similar mechanic to Marth's).

You need to seriously let this go. It's an agenda and a grossly misinformed one at that. So far zero Pokemon were added for the sake of advertisement. Unless you want to count the actual Pokeballs at best. Not even Pokemon Trainer having a Leaf costume counts, as she wasn't really there for any reason other than to represent both kinds of general Trainers, male and female. Him name-dropping Leaf might've been to help promote Pokemon Let's Go, but not her actually being there. It's fine you don't like Incineroar being in, but making false statements is stooping really low and making you look really bad. You just need to accept the reality of the situation; they got in due to being interesting. Without that, they had no actual chance.

You also seem to be forgetting that he wants to represent a lot of the latest and relevant stuff. That's why it isn't shoehorning in in any way. He also does this. You can argue a ton of characters are shoehorned in if you are using "relevant" as a reason, since that's really what Greninja and Incineroar had in their favor. Right timing is pretty much what relevancy is.

Saving a generic Pokémon slot to be filled in late in the game seems pretty much like filling a specific quota to me.

Given his statements about not removing characters mid-development, I find it hard to believe that he considered the possibility of looking at the available options, deciding none of them is worth it, and not including a Pokémon.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Saving a generic Pokémon slot to be filled in late in the game seems pretty much like filling a specific quota to me.

Given his statements about not removing characters mid-development, I find it hard to believe that he considered the possibility of looking at the available options, deciding none of them is worth it, and not including a Pokémon.

Every game has gotten quotas to fill. Why do you think Zero Suit Samus got in? She was a Metroid quota. That was it.

That's not what shoehorning is in any way.

He didn't consider any other Pokemon because he explicitly wanted someone from the latest games. That was it. It was Decidueye, Incineroar, or nothing. I don't find it hard to believe at all. Because that's exactly what he planned to do. If he couldn't fill the slot with a Sun/Moon Pokemon, it wouldn't be there. The character just didn't work out. In this case, it did. Thus, calling it a shoehorn is ridiculous. He had a plan and stuck to it. He already knew what he wanted from the start. Fact of the matter is, the only reason Greninja and Incineroar are there is because he found them interesting enough to work. There was literally nothing to suggest he had any other ideas for a single X/Y Pokemon. And we already know he only considered literally two options for the Sun/Moon Pokemon. So yeah, if none of those 3 worked out, we'd just not have a new Pokemon. At best, we could've seen Pichu back in 4, really. As it's literally the only one easy enough to make.

 

[Idon]

Sakurai chose the idea to represent the latest Generation, but only if the characters were interesting. In other words, they had to have actual merits to get in. If Greninja didn't actually become fast for him to envision, there wouldn't be a new Pokemon that game. Same if Incineroar nor Decidueye worked out. Both had merits, but Wrestling was the only reason Incineroar got in. There was nothing to even shoehorn in. Nor shill picks(the closest one was kind of Corrin, and he almost didn't make it in either. He was lucky the team saw unique potential in him. Roy also got in for advertising-related reasons, but also cause he could be interesting with a separate but similar mechanic to Marth's).

Right, Sakurai "could" just not pick a relevant pokemon despite the fact he's done so with Lucario, Greninja, and Incineroar and has been given pre-release spreadsheets of characters by the Pokemon company for the express purpose of putting in a Smash character, on top of explicitly mentioning that in the Ultimate project plan, development resources were reserved for the purpose of a Pokemon from the latest generation.

There are literal hundreds of pokemon added every smash cycle.
To tell me that both TPC wouldn't want a pokemon character in Nintendo's biggest crossover and that Sakurai wouldn't find ANY potential in those dozens of new and relevant designs is telling me some highly doubtful stuff.

I'll believe it when I see it that Pokemon isn't guaranteed a new character every single Smash.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Every game has gotten quotas to fill. Why do you think Zero Suit Samus got in? She was a Metroid quota. That was it.

That's not what shoehorning is in any way.

He didn't consider any other Pokemon because he explicitly wanted someone from the latest games. That was it. It was Decidueye, Incineroar, or nothing. I don't find it hard to believe at all. Because that's exactly what he planned to do. If he couldn't fill the slot with a Sun/Moon Pokemon, it wouldn't be there. The character just didn't work out. In this case, it did. Thus, calling it a shoehorn is ridiculous. He had a plan and stuck to it. He already knew what he wanted from the start. Fact of the matter is, the only reason Greninja and Incineroar are there is because he found them interesting enough to work. There was literally nothing to suggest he had any other ideas for a single X/Y Pokemon. And we already know he only considered literally two options for the Sun/Moon Pokemon. So yeah, if none of those 3 worked out, we'd just not have a new Pokemon. At best, we could've seen Pichu back in 4, really. As it's literally the only one easy enough to make.

Including a character from the latest game of a series, for no reason other than the fact that it’s the latest game of a series, before the game is even released? That feels like an advertising pick to me.

And I do not believe for one second that we would not have had a new Pokémon newcomer.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Right, Sakurai "could" just not pick a relevant pokemon despite the fact he's done so with Lucario, Greninja, and Incineroar and has been given pre-release spreadsheets of characters by the Pokemon company for the express purpose of putting in a Smash character, on top of explicitly mentioning that in the Ultimate project plan, development resources were reserved for the purpose of a Pokemon from the latest generation.

There are literal hundreds of pokemon added every smash cycle.
To tell me that both TPC wouldn't want a pokemon character in Nintendo's biggest crossover and that Sakurai wouldn't find potential in those dozens of new and relevant designs is telling me some highly doubtful stuff.

I'll believe it when I see it that Pokemon isn't guaranteed a new character every single Smash.

Which won't make a jack-all of a difference if Sakurai doesn't find anyone interesting. They actually defer to him strictly as the person who chooses who gets in as playable. They only at best control things like Pokeballs and costumes.

They've made this statement before. It's 100% Sakurai's choice. We're 100% lucky that he found someone good among the proper relevant options at the time. He doesn't care if there's 100 or 1,000. He only looks at the smallest set of choices. Another thing he's made clear. Many of them he can only figure is a strong option due to the anime, and now has stopped doing that, setting aside a potential(but not guaranteed) slot for the latest Gen in hopes it works out.

It's a pattern, but it is not a guarantee of any sorts it'll continue to happen. You're acting like he actually looked at a ton of options. Guess what? He didn't. He never considered anyone but 2 Pokemon from Sun/Moon. You can argue 3 at best from X/Y via the Starters, which he did have concept art of.

Including a character from the latest game of a series, for no reason other than the fact that it’s the latest game of a series, before the game is even released? That feels like an advertising pick to me.

And I do not believe for one second that we would not have had a new Pokémon newcomer.

Nope. That's not remotely why he went for those Pokemon and we all know it. They are not actual advertising picks. He chose them because he knew they would actually be relevant enough with the timing to work out. To be an advertisement, he needs to know it would be to promote the series itself. Greninja nor Incineroar were chosen to promote anything whatsoever. You don't know how advertising even works. None of the Pokemon were chosen to advertise. It's kind of hard to do so when the game's not actually out either. How on earth can Incineroar advertise a single thing if all the games are out? That doesn't make any remote sense. There was nothing to promote. Greninja was chosen independent of that too. In fact, there's a more likely case Greninja was promoted to being more important for the anime because Sakurai chose it. Not the other way around.

You're shoehorning in bad excuses here. Learn what advertisement means first. I'll make the definition clear for you again; advertising is to promote something specifically. Greninja and Incineroar were not chosen in any way to promote their games. Thus? They cannot be advertisements at all. Setting a slot aside for any series has nothing to do with advertisement. It's just having a feeling they'll have a good character choice to go with and nothing more. Now he did actually decide to choose two Fire Emblem characters due to promotional reasons(or advertisement), but that wasn't obviously the only reason for their choice. Quotas do not have anything inherently to do with advertisement either.

I could also say the same bad pattern that every game is guaranteed a Super Mario series character. Brawl lost one with Dr. Mario gone and didn't add a single new character from that series. Seems like an obvious guarantee, right? Super Mario is a huge series. Why wouldn't it gain a character? Nope, it didn't get anyone. A WarioWare character was close, but no cigar. And they had many they could promote easily if they wanted to(Waluigi, Daisy, Paper Mario, Toad, to name a few). Yet they didn't.

Guarantees don't exist here. In fact, the best thing we can expect next time, if he's still at the helm, is that he sets aside a slot for the latest Gen Pokemon(because he likes to set up for interesting and fun characters), but maybe we'll get a Pokemon, or maybe we won't. Who knows. Hell, remember when we got at least 2 new Pokemon per game? Or even 2 slots alone? Didn't happen since 4. We got one new Pokemon each time at best. There is no guaranteed pattern. There is no reason to believe it's a guarantee based upon a pattern that doesn't really exist. Especially as every single Pokemon was chosen due to their own merits or for their mechanics, with zero advertisement options ever made. Not that an advertisement Pokemon is impossible, but it still hasn't happened yet.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Which won't make a jack-all of a difference if Sakurai doesn't find anyone interesting. They actually defer to him strictly as the person who chooses who gets in as playable. They only at best control things like Pokeballs and costumes.

They've made this statement before. It's 100% Sakurai's choice. We're 100% lucky that he found someone good among the proper relevant options at the time. He doesn't care if there's 100 or 1,000. He only looks at the smallest set of choices. Another thing he's made clear. Many of them he can only figure is a strong option due to the anime, and now has stopped doing that, setting aside a potential(but not guaranteed) slot for the latest Gen in hopes it works out.

It's a pattern, but it is not a guarantee of any sorts it'll continue to happen. You're acting like he actually looked at a ton of options. Guess what? He didn't. He never considered anyone but 2 Pokemon from Sun/Moon. You can argue 3 at best from X/Y via the Starters, which he did have concept art of.


Nope. That's not remotely why he went for those Pokemon and we all know it. They are not actual advertising picks. He chose them because he knew they would actually be relevant enough with the timing to work out. To be an advertisement, he needs to know it would be to promote the series itself. Greninja nor Incineroar were chosen to promote anything whatsoever. You don't know how advertising even works. None of the Pokemon were chosen to advertise. It's kind of hard to do so when the game's not actually out either. How on earth can Incineroar advertise a single thing if all the games are out? That doesn't make any remote sense. There was nothing to promote. Greninja was chosen independent of that too. In fact, there's a more likely case Greninja was promoted to being more important for the anime because Sakurai chose it. Not the other way around.

You're shoehorning in bad excuses here. Learn what advertisement means first. I'll make the definition clear for you again; advertising is to promote something specifically. Greninja and Incineroar were not chosen in any way to promote their games. Thus? They cannot be advertisements at all. Setting a slot aside for any series has nothing to do with advertisement. It's just having a feeling they'll have a good character choice to go with and nothing more. Now he did actually decide to choose two Fire Emblem characters due to promotional reasons(or advertisement), but that wasn't obviously the only reason for their choice. Quotas do not have anything inherently to do with advertisement either.

I could also say the same bad pattern that every game is guaranteed a Super Mario series character. Brawl lost one with Dr. Mario gone and didn't add a single new character from that series. Seems like an obvious guarantee, right? Super Mario is a huge series. Why wouldn't it gain a character? Nope, it didn't get anyone. A WarioWare character was close, but no cigar. And they had many they could promote easily if they wanted to(Waluigi, Daisy, Paper Mario, Toad, to name a few). Yet they didn't.

Guarantees don't exist here. In fact, the best thing we can expect next time, if he's still at the helm, is that he sets aside a slot for the latest Gen Pokemon(because he likes to set up for interesting and fun characters), but maybe we'll get a Pokemon, or maybe we won't. Who knows. Hell, remember when we got at least 2 new Pokemon per game? Or even 2 slots alone? Didn't happen since 4. We got one new Pokemon each time at best. There is no guaranteed pattern. There is no reason to believe it's a guarantee based upon a pattern that doesn't really exist. Especially as every single Pokemon was chosen due to their own merits or for their mechanics, with zero advertisement options ever made. Not that an advertisement Pokemon is impossible, but it still hasn't happened yet.

You know what? Let’s drop it, because every time we argue nothing you say ever makes any sense to me. I don’t mean this as an insult, but it’s obvious there’s a huge disconnect between us.