Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Troykv]

Miles Prower

Chance: 15%

This character it's mainly helped for being popular and being a character is very easy to fit into anything if for some reason Smash Bros decides to have additional DLC outside of the Fighter Pass. Probably his problems it's lacking any particular argument in his favour... outside of being a popular Third Party, pretty much everything in the current speculations says that the rest of the DLC, at least in the Fighter Pass will use recency bias in their favour; something that Tails can exactly use because he doesn't have proper game since like 20 years ago.

Want: 50%

He would be fun; but depends a lot of how exactly it would be implemented... I guess he would be a slower (in the overall ground movement) Sonic with a extra jump and a glide ability after using the third jump or something.

__________

Predictions:

Elma: 5.4%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x5 (or x10?)

 

[Artix]

Tails

Chance: 1%
With Joker's inclusion, I don't think we're getting another Sega character in the game. Even if they did, I'm thinking it will not be from Sonic. The only thing he has going for is the fan demands, but since DLC will be about unexpected characters, I don't think he fits in. Hell, I even think Doctor Eggman might be more unexpected than Tails.

Want: 80%
I really love Tails ever since I played Sonic 2. And as much as I want him in Smash, there's just way too many competition for the DLC slots, especially third-parties. I wouldn't mind him getting in, but I highly doubt he would.

Elma Predictions: 15.25%

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Tales of Tails

Chance: 10%
There seems to be a rule of one unique rep per 3rd party franchise, but some can also get echos. If anything breaks this rule, it's gonna be the Sonic franchise. Tails is easily the best choice for a new Sonic character, and Sonic as a whole is definitely popular and iconic enough to get a second unique character. Whether or not it will actually happen is a different thing entirely. Normally I'd give a 0% to a character from a 3rd party franchise that's already repped, Tails is an exception.

Want: 4%
Eh? I'm not really a fan of Sonic games at all, but Tails would have a pretty cool moveset I suppose. While I hate the games, the music is great, so more Sonic music is always a bonus. Either way, not really strongly attached to him at all.

Nominations: Bonkers x5

As for the abstaining nominations thing, I feel like nominations should definitely be based on participation. If it were me, I'd make it so you get 5 noms for each score you give, so doing chance and want would give you ten, abstaining on one gives you 5, and double abstains don't get noms. That's just my take on it though.

 

[PeridotGX]

Tails

Chance: 1%. We just got Joker as a Sega rep. That severely hurts his chances. Plus he already has a spirit.

Want: 40%. He'd be nice, but there are other characters I'd prefer. More Sonic music is always a plus though.

Noms: Grovyle x5

As for penalties for abstaining, I still say that it should be for chance only. I shouldn't be penalized for not caring about a character.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Tails:

Chance - 3%

It may be gut feeling but I don't think we will get more than 1 character per company for the Fighter Pass and we already know our SEGA character being Joker. However he is a gaming icon and everyone knows him with some popularity so I'll give him that.

Want - 30%

I'm not against him but I just have more characters I would want before him but I think Tails is a pretty cool character. Weird how Knuckles and Shadow got the AT treatment before him.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Tails

Chance: 2%
With Joker already appearing in the DLC pass as a member of the SEGA company, I'm not holding out much hope for either Tails or Eggman to make it in as playable characters. He is however, a pretty popular character and one of the most famous video game sidekicks of all time only bested by Luigi. I'd expect his(and Knuckles)' mii outfits to return at least through DLC.

Want: 100%
Which is a shame because outside Yoshi and Toad, Tails is easily my favourite video game character of all time. He was the first video game character I ever played as, and the Melee rumours only made me want him and Toad more.

Tails is not only a Day 1 purchase for me should he miraculously make it in, he's also good enough for me to just snap up the other four characters in the Fighters Pass despite not caring at all for either Joker or Erdrick. Hell, him getting in would have been the Ultimate hype a third party could possibly give me too.

 

[Flyboy]

Tails
Chance: 5%
With Joker being announced and Atlus being owned by Sega, I just don't see another Sega character being in the pack. That said, hey, that's a fan rule so it's not like it's a zero. Tails is the original sidekick and one of the most recognizable Sonic characters, so I'd say he's a possibility. Not a great one, but one that exists. I'm surprised he hasn't been made into an AT or part or Sonic's moveset or anything yet. Another thing against him is that if they were to add another Sonic rep there's nothing guaranteeing he'd be in and if they were to add another Sega rep I feel Arle Nadja would be higher on the priority list.

Want: 30%
I love Sonic, but Tails is third on my list of Sonic reps I want. He's cool and I'd definitely be pleased but I want Robotnik more than any other Sonic character and on a personal level I want Knuckles more than Tails as well. Now, Tails could have some fun moves and flight and if they went with SA2 he could even have some machine moves, but again I feel like Eggman and Knuckles would bring more to the table overall. All four playable would be awesome, though. Give us Sega Smash already! Or at least let us have the Mario Bros. vs. Sonic & Tails!

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5

 

[DaUsername]

Tails
Chance: 1%
We're already getting a Sega character, so it seems unlikely we'd get another one so soon. Even if we did, it probably wouldn't be a Sonic character.
Want: 5%
Tails is cool and all, but I'd rather have third parties from new franchises instead of already represented ones. But hey, having more Sonic music would be cool I guess.

Elma prediction: 16%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

 

[CureParfait]

Tails
Chance- 10%
The possibility of him being playable is still there but given Joker was revealed as DLC recently. I think that hurt Tails' chance really badly.

Want- 10%
I don't really particularly cared about him when I played the Sonic games and there are other Sonic characters I prefer over Tails.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Tails

15% Chance

My feelings towards us getting a second sonic character have waned considerably. I felt with echos we would get an easy Sonic echo, but I was wrong. Needless to say, if we do get a second sonic character, there are two choices: Tails and Eggman. Eggman has the factor of being more unique, older, more recurring, and the main villain. Tails has the factor of being the sidekick, Sonic's recurring sidekick, and being easier to make. Honestly both have around the same chance in my eyes.

90% Want

Tails does deserve a spot, but the thing is competition. While I feel getting more Sonic music is worth a second sonic character, Tails is not my first choice. That would be Eggman.

Nominating Sephiroth x 5

Today we got another Sega character, Elma from Xenoblade Chronicles X. Will her spirit doom her? What about X not having any music? Rate her.

Tomorrow we will be doing a concept of getting any echos as dlc. Be it an echo pack, freebies, or what have you. Predict Concept: Any Echo Fighter as DLC (not in fighter pass).

 

[PeridotGX]

Tails

15% Chance

My feelings towards us getting a second sonic character have waned considerably. I felt with echos we would get an easy Sonic echo, but I was wrong. Needless to say, if we do get a second sonic character, there are two choices: Tails and Eggman. Eggman has the factor of being more unique, older, more recurring, and the main villain. Tails has the factor of being the sidekick, Sonic's recurring sidekick, and being easier to make. Honestly both have around the same chance in my eyes.

90% Want

Tails does deserve a spot, but the thing is competition. While I feel getting more Sonic music is worth a second sonic character, Tails is not my first choice. That would be Eggman.

Nominating Sephiroth x 5

Today we got another Sega character, Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo. Will this popular puzzler do well today? Or will she fair poorly in the west?

Tomorrow we will be doing a concept of getting any echos as dlc. Be it an echo pack, freebies, or what have you. Predict Concept: Any Echo Fighter as DLC (not in fighter pass).

Wasn't today supposed to be Elma?

 

[RileyXY1]

Wasn't today supposed to be Elma?

Yeah. Elma was next on the schedule.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Fixed Schedule through day 235
231: Tails Prower
232: Elma <- Today's day.
233: Concept: Echo Fighter DLC (Not one of five in fighter pass)
234: Demille
235: Micaiah
236: Arle Nadja (START OF TOP 7)

We still have a few more days before Arle Nadja and the top 7 list starts. Today should be Elma.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

My b fixed. Ya three each get 5 extra noms for catching my slip.

 

[Ridrool64]

And, as I was writing my Arle write-up and modifying it to account for Joker, it switches back to just Elma day.

[Funny Joke about Xenoblade Chronicles X goes here.]

Chance: 20%. I see Elma as the leader of the Spirits right now, followed by Paper Mario: if any Spirit will get in, she's poised to do it, especially with a lot of circumstantial evidence going her way. That being said, I think Spirits are a disconfirmation, so I don't believe she will make it in.

Want: Unfortunately, I do not have any proper experience with Xenoblade Chronicles X whatsoever. I will say that she seems cool enough, though, and I think she'd make a great character from initial impressions, but without a complex understanding of how it works, I can't come to a good conclusion. Rather than abstain, I will give her a 25% want, simply because killing Spirit disconfirmations would make so many people happy, even if it's another ****ty thing for Arle.

---

Nominations: It's gotta be Arle Nadja x 5. Echo Fighter DLC will have 0.90% chance, since it's not officially listed by Nintendo.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Elmo in Smash!? Wait... wrong one. (Thank God)
Chance: 15%
Want: 55%

This one's gonna be short. I've never played a Xenoblade game in my life, so I'm indifferent towards this character. She could have a cool moveset I guess..? I don't see any problems with moveset or play style, but one problem she does have is having a spirit in the game, which really hurts her chances of making it in. The fighters pass is also hinting towards mostly third party characters that would leave a major impact on the community, like Joker, and I don't see Elma causing major hype to be honest. I wouldn't be mad if she made it, but I wouldn't care too much unless she's good or really fun to play.

Echo DLC: 18.82%

Reaper x10
(Ready to kill that top 7 spot. Sorry Tracer.)

 

[Deleted member]

Elma loves you (yeah I know someone already did a Elmo joke but I don't care)


Chance: 20%
She does have a slight chance because she did have time to get in (I think) the project planner.
She could be unique. But remove 80% because Reggie said we're getting new to the game, and I think that means series.

Want: 0%, haven't played the game. So obviously I wouldn't care.


Echo DLC: 46%


Nominations:
Freddi Fish and Luther x5

(wait, can we do 10 votes because I see someone else doing it, until someone answers me I'm putting 5 noms.)
EDIT: after reading TCT gave it to 3 people for fixing an error, and I didn't do that so I now know I only have 5, and know why that guy above got 10

 

[DaUsername]

Today we got another Sega character, Elma from Xenoblade Chronicles X

I think you forgot something.

 

[Sid-cada]

Elma

Chance - 7.5% - Elma was probably in the ruining, due to good timing and being more or less the main protagonist of X. However, she was made into a spirit, which seems to be treated as a death kneel currently. While it does seem like a bad thing, I'm not quite ready to call it a complete disinformation as of yet. Still, it's a major blow, and Joke if a proper forecast isn't good for her outlook.

Want - 50% - As always with Xenoblade stuff, I have no opinion on it. She might be cool, but I'll need to see her work to get a proper opinion.


Prediction

Echo Fighters DLC - 14.35% - Not likely, I think...


Nominations

Dark Matter X5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Elma

Chance- 30%
The lack of Xenoblade X music, as well as Elma being rumored for quite a while, makes her seem pretty likely. Rex isn't getting in, at least for a while, but why not Elma? She'd be a great way to bring Xenoblade X as a port to the switch, too. She's relatively low anyway, mostly because of my pessimism against 1st parties getting in. Spirits don't mean anything.

Want- 40%
Despite not caring about Xenoblade very much, any first party character that isn't from Fire Emblem is 1000x better than a 3rd party at this point. Plus, more female reps are always nice. If Shulk is anything to go off of, Xenoblade movesets are gonna be some of the coolest. I'd be down.

Echo DLC prediction: 25%

Noms: Bonkers x5

 

[Flyboy]

Elma
Chance: 2%
I have to be honest...I have a very pessimistic view on the lack of Xenoblade X content in Smash. The lack of music, the lack of stage, the paltry spirits...normally I'd say that it hints at something but to be honest with what XC2 got there's no reason X doesn't have at least that much in base game. Combine that with X being seen as the black sheep of the series and it just makes me believe that the devs just don't want X content in or it's seen as a spinoff or something. I don't know. I want to be hopeful for her chances but I really can't be. Plus if Spirits deconfirm (and I truly believe they do) she's already in the game so unless they use her XC2 DLC design or a spoiler form, it's not happening.

Want: 90%
It sucks because I want her so, so badly. Like, her not getting in won't make me flip my table but it's funny because I always considered her my "safe" want. I made it my mission to support ridiculous or out-there picks outside of her and now it looks like she's one of the ones who has like no shot. And that sucks! She has such a cool design, X is such a fun game (and I want a Switch port so badly), she would wield two guns and two blades she has a giant mech, and with each fighter pack coming with a stage and music she would bring some of the most beautiful vistas I've seen in gaming along with some awesome Sawano-composed music like Black Tar, Uncontrollable, Ma-Non Day, and more.

She's just cool, man, and she's such a good character, and X was such a fun and beautiful game with characters I loved (especially Elma and Irina), and to hear it's unpopular among Xenoblade fans (despite being my favorite because it reminded me of Xenosaga) just sucks. It was such a great highlight of the Wii U and easily my favorite -blade game. I want a port or sequel and I want X to be respected and represented in Smash.

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

X-enoblade

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

OMG but what about Sakurai's toy?!?!?!?

It is definitely odd that Xeno X didn't really get anything in Smash beyond a few Spirits, while Xeno 2 got some songs as well. Still, Japan seems fixated on Xeno 2 now, so going back to Xeno X may be a bit of a step backwards. I think the biggest problem for Elma is simply that she's a product of bad timing - the game released during the ballot so she couldn't naturally get many votes there, and then there ended up being another Xeno game coming out right before Ultimate released which completely eclipsed X.

Oh, and the fact that Spirits probably disconfirm.

Me? No thanks. I'd take her over Shulk, but I've never been a huge fan of JRPGs or the anime aesthetic. Shulk was a literal who for me in 4, and after playing through everyone's classic mode here, I've decided that he's beaten Dark Pit for my least favorite member of the cast. There are thousands of characters I'd take over Elma.

Nom: More DLC x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Elma knows where you live
Chance: 5%-She's actually one of the few Nintendo/pre-existing franchise characters that I can see coming, what with the lack of Xenoblade X content in the game. Easy as hell to get a stage and a bunch of songs to come with her. However, it is that very shaft that also makes me think she won't get in. And also, I think all five characters are from new franchises, so, low score again.
Want: 5%-I'm not interested in another Xenoblade character. She's better looking that Rex though, so I won't get angry if she's in.
Nominations: Dantex5

 

[Jomosensual]

Elma

Chance: 30 - Better chance than anyone from XB2 since XCX came out in 2015, but the spirit is keeping my rating lower. Assuming spirits de-confirm characters until I see something definitive telling me they don't but with Piranha Plant not being a spirit I think that tells us what we need to know on that subject.

Want: 10 - No connection to the character and I haven't player any of the Xenoblade games yet. Only not a 0 because my brother loves XB and would be excited for her to get in

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[Flyboy]

X-enoblade

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

OMG but what about Sakurai's toy?!?!?!?

It is definitely odd that Xeno X didn't really get anything in Smash beyond a few Spirits, while Xeno 2 got some songs as well. Still, Japan seems fixated on Xeno 2 now, so going back to Xeno X may be a bit of a step backwards. I think the biggest problem for Elma is simply that she's a product of bad timing - the game released during the ballot so she couldn't naturally get many votes there, and then there ended up being another Xeno game coming out right before Ultimate released which completely eclipsed X.

Oh, and the fact that Spirits probably disconfirm.

Me? No thanks. I'd take her over Shulk, but I've never been a huge fan of JRPGs or the anime aesthetic. Shulk was a literal who for me in 4, and after playing through everyone's classic mode here, I've decided that he's beaten Dark Pit for my least favorite member of the cast. There are thousands of characters I'd take over Elma.

Nom: More DLC x5

Why do you call everything non-Western "anime aesthetic"? Elma doesn't look anime, she's in fact a lot more realistic-looking than half the goddamn cast. Is Little Mac "anime"? Because she doesn't look different from Little Mac to me. This argument is weaksauce as ****.

 

[Calamitas]

Well then, to hopefully start a trend of more generous ratings here. . .

Chance: 80%
I'll admit that I'm mostly putting the chance rating this high because of my want (we'll get to that), but even so, I feel like there's a good enough amount of points in her favour.

• She was very heavily marketed as DLC character for Xenoblade 2, and had a bit of a stand-out role in the game, even in comparison to other crossover characters Shulk, Fiora, KOS-MOS and T-ELOS. The way they handled her in the game also heavily implies that they want to do something more with her, and since a hypothetical Xenoblade Chronicles X2 might still take quite a while, that honestly only really leaves Smash.
• The composer for X, Hiroyuki Sawano had a recording session last March, which to this day has not had revealed what it was for. Mind you, around the same time, other composers who turned out to be working for Ultimate also had recording sessions.
• Elma's voice actress, Caitlyn Glass recently tweeted about a role that puts her under NDA.
• Smash Ultimate's internal list of games that it draws content from does not include Xenoblade Chronicles X, despite being very meticilous with regards to listing everything otherwise. Additionally, not a single one of the Spirits from X can be found in World of Light, making it seem like any content from X in Ultimate was a very last-minute thing done to not raise suspicions.
• As for the "why Nintendo would want to put her in": The way that X ended made it very likely that a hypothetical X2 would be a direct sequel, unlike what 2 was for the original Xenoblade. This'd mean that she'd be the protagonist once again, making her inclusion into Smash good advertisment for X2 once that comes around. Contrast this with Rex, who has a very low chance of playing a major role in any kind of future Xenoblade game, as well as 2 having already surpassed sales expectations.

Want: 100%
. . .Well, the previous section should've made that obvious enough. Xenoblade is currently my favourite series in Smash, and if it's gonna get a newcomer, it has to be her. Especially since it would mean that X would finally get some proper acknowledgement after so many people suddenly decided that it is the black sheep in the series and try to reframe everything like it was a huge flop. Together with Shulk, she'd also perfectly represent the Xenoblade series in general, with Shulk standing in for the more fantasy elements, while she stands in for the more sci-fi elements.

 

[HPMarratick]

Chance-70%
Evidence for Elma is pretty strong, lack of music, making a trailer for her in DLC for her appearance in XC2, and rex's chances being shorter than he is. The only evidence against her is her spirit, while spirits can deconfirm characters, you can bend the rules and change up the spirits encounter, image, and name. Which would only work if a character has had multiple appearances.

Want 80%
Her moveset, skills, and characteristics would make for a strong candidate for a fighter in smash. Alongside some good music from Sawano, and a cool Mira stage, she would be a fantastic character to add.

Echo chance 10%.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

View attachment 185732

Why do you call everything non-Western "anime aesthetic"? Elma doesn't look anime, she's in fact a lot more realistic-looking than half the goddamn cast. Is Little Mac "anime"? Because she doesn't look different from Little Mac to me. This argument is weaksauce as ****.

... I thought that our personal opinions on things were just that: personal. As in, arguing it isn't going to make me suddenly want her.

Look, I think the FE crew is anime as well. But I love playing as Ike or Robin. Heck, I main Link and Zelda, and they've been going in that direction as well. Just because someone has the anime aesthetic (what I'd consider as large eyes, unnatural hair colors, generally spiky hair, odd costume choices including lots of futuristic stuff or asymmetry) doesn't mean I'd hate them. But it's just not my go to when seeing a new character.

And look, my most wanted is along the Simon/Snake level of realistic, which is not what Elma is. My second most wanted is along the Sonic/Pikachu lines of cartoon animal.

So is it a weak argument? Probably. But this site doesn't like people just saying "I don't like it" "WELL WHY NOT SHE'S COOL!" "I just don't, sorry"

I'm sorry that my opinions on certain characters don't match yours. I'm assuming that you also think of Dovahkiin as girtty or boring in some way - lots of people do. But I'm not going to hold those opinions against anyone.

 

[PSIGuy]

Chance - 2%
Even if you assume we're not getting all third party DLC (and that's what I'm assuming) there's still plenty of characters who would be prioritized before her. The chance of a single first or second party rep could be 0% already. Unfortunately I think Corrin getting in Smash 4 sealed her chances; she had a great opportunity as a promo character back then and it's gone now.

Watch as I'm wrong about the all third party DLC thing and we get another Fire Emblem character though.

Want - 100%
Easily my most wanted from the base game or in DLC. XCX is one of my favorite games of all time and I'd be happy to see it get any content at all let alone a newcomer.

 

[RouffWestie]

Elma
Chance: 0%
She's from a game that exists. That's pretty all there is to say about her. There's nothing noteworthy about Xenoblade Chronicles X. Maybe you liked it, but it didn't really leave an impact on gaming as a whole. I think she's less likely now since she's represented as a Spirit. Would she really be a sensible choice of DLC from a business perspective?

Want: 0%
She's a boring character. Her design is boring and her personality is boring. She's exactly the type of character I have zero interest in.

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 60%
I have a feeling that Nintendo wanted to promote the Xenoblade series when they were drawing up plans for the game, and if Rex was too new then Elma is decently likely. Plus there's all the stuff that Calamitas already said. I just have a bit of natural pessimism after characters I considered DLC locks got deconfirmed in the snap of a finger.

Want: 100%
Girl is basically cooler Morag and she would bring along some kickass Sawano music, there's no reason NOT to want her. Also she's the only viable Xenoblade rep at this point with Rex dead, and Xenoblade is one of my favorite series of all time. Fingers crossed for KOS-MOS but it probably ain't gonna happen.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Elma

Chance: 3%
-Sadly I don't think she'll make it in. She's already a spirit and has an event already.
-And I still think all Wave 1 DLC will be 3rd party. She doesn't seem the enticing as a DLC character IMO. She fits more as a Base character

Want: 70%

-That said though, she does moveset potential with the mechs and her swords.
-Maybe a chance for Wave 2 DLC?

Echo DLC Prediction: 21.66%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5

 

[FancySmash]

Mecha Elmo

Chance: 10%
Honestly, Elma and Bandana Dee were really hurt by the Spirit thing. It's kind of along the lines of Isaac and Shadow, held off to the last minute only to dash those fans' hope. I do believe there's fan demand for her though, so if there is to be a spirit promotion, she'd be up there. Sadly, I just don't see it. With DLC already looking to be all third party, there's really no reason to upgrade spirits. That said, there's no mii costume or assist trophy, so that's a huge plus.

Want: 30%
I know nothing about Xenoblade as a series, but again, she and Dee have that last minute spirit thing in common, so I wouldn't mind her getting in. Plus, I'd prefer her to Rex, from what I hear, there's more to her character than Rex's.

Predictions: Echo DLC
This... could go multiple ways. We could have echos alongside the main five we're getting, free DLC echos, like Kirby Star Allies, wave 2 echos... possibilities are endless... and not likely. 12%

Noms:
Professor Hector x3
Q*Bert x2

 

[GoodGrief741]

Skell Kid

Chance: 0%
Why people thought Elma was ever likely for the base roster is beyond me. It’s one of those things that just don’t add up in my mind, kinda like Shantae. Xenoblade X is old hat and has been for a while. Elma isn’t even the protagonist of that game, and generally speaking those are favored for selection. She also didn’t have any ballot support and her fanbase since has been pretty small. Oh, and also she’s a Spirit. I don’t expect to get any first parties on the roster anyways, but if we did she’s very low priority.

Want: 25%
Would have been 50 because I don’t care either way, but limited slots means I get to be pickier. Having played Xenoblade X, I find Elma to be a pretty boring and charmless character, so while I think I would be won over by her moveset (like similarly meh pick Greninja), and I would adore New LA as a map, Elma does nothing for me. While I haven’t played Xenoblade 2, Rex seems like a way, way better choice to me, being a character that’s highly requested and also kinda likable. But that’s just my opinion.

Nominations: Mach RiderX5

 

[Sari]

Elma

Chance: 10%
Elma seems to be pretty popular and it was implied during Rex's mii costume reveal that we won't be getting any Xenoblade 2 characters at least for this wave of DLC. This means that now is probably Elma's best shot at ever appearing in Ultimate and she seems like one of the most likely first party candidates at the moment. Should we ever get a season 2 wave of DLC, Rex or anyone else from Xenoblade 2 would definitely have priority over Elma since Sakurai is well aware that they are requested (as he stated during the Rex mii costume showcase). Chance % would be higher but I'm starting to believe more than ever that openings for first party characters are extremely limited (and again I've been leaning towards spirits deconfirming fighters).

Want: Abstain
Never got into the Xenoblade games so I won't comment. I will say that I love her design though.

Chance prediction of Concept: Echo Fighter DLC (Not one of five in fighter pass): 12.93%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

-----

Off topic and I know I'm a bit late on this but I agree with PeridotGX in that we should still get full noms as long as we rate the chance % since being forced to give want %'s may result in a lot of unnecessary 0's. If you abstain from the want rating then you should at least give a decent explanation as to why though.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Tails pre-Elma

Arle Nadja x375
Rhythm Girl x335
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x320
Hollow Knight x282
Nero Claudius (Fate) x265
Reimu Hakurei x250
Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x248

Over 200

Mach Rider x245
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x245
Reaper (Overwatch) x231
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x226
Concept: More DLC x225

200 - 151

Concept: SNK rep x175
Sephiroth x165

150 - 101

Professor Hector x134
Kat & Ana x130
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x130
Dark Matter x130
Ravio x130
Andy (Advance Wars) x120
Ryota Hayami x120
Dante x120
Shy Guy x120
Bonkers (Kirby) x120
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x120
Amy Rose x115
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x110
Brash the Bear x110
Sly Cooper x110
Concept: Boss Rush x110
Q*Bert x110
Concept: World of Light expansion x110
Magikarp x109
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x106
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51


Tracer x100
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x100
Monster Hunter x100
Poochy x100
Cranky Kong x100
Vaati x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Concept: Style Savvy rep x85
Hat Kid x75
9-Volt x69
Spyro x52


50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Brian (Quest 64) x5
Black Shadow x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Adeleine (Kirby) x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Reimu Hakurei wins the seventh place tie. Thus, Mach Rider and Stages outside Fighter Pass fall off the top 7. *sigh*

Today’s sole newcomer is Black Shadow, with 5 noms.

Chance 80%: If we can have Richter, and Ken, why not have Tails. He'll most likely be the first 3rd party Semi-Clone.

Want: 100%: Although I hate Sonic, I still want Tails to be playable, along with Waluigi and Bomberman (In Smash 6).

But you have a Sonic OC as your avatar, what do you mean you hate Sonic?

 

[RealPokeFan11]

But you have a Sonic OC as your avatar, what do you mean you hate Sonic?

Im guessing he means that he hates playing as Sonic, or he hates going against Sonic.

 

[3DSNinja]

I don't get how you can kick someone off the top 7. the y should be finalized lol.
abstain and elma.
Nominations:
Mach Rider x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

I don't get how you can kick someone off the top 7. the y should be finalized lol.
abstain and elma.
Nominations:
Mach Rider x5

They get finalized once we run out of characters to rate. Until then, the top 7, and the characters below them are competing to make it there, or stay in the top.

 

[kaithehedgefox]

Im guessing he means that he hates playing as Sonic, or he hates going against Sonic.

Correct! I hate Sonic because I've loved Mario for a long term. I still enjoy playing as Sonic in Smash though, and I still want more playable Sonic characters.