Fox Luigi
Chance: 1%
Want: 100%
Ultimate has really been allowing some characters to shine and giving the spotlight to practically everyone. Then there are the few characters who somehow still managed to get a downgrade from Sm4sh...
I'm not gonna latch onto the "Joker is SEGA so no more SEGAs" argument - after all, that argument is always discounted whenever we rate someone from Capcom. Still, it is true that no third party has managed to get more than one unique moveset...so far. We've got two with echoes (with varying levels of echo uniqueness), showing that "Echo" basically means "whatever we need it to mean." As such, I think the best chance a Sonic character has is getting an echo.
Of all the third parties in the game, Sonic's the one that's stuck with Smash most consistently (having been introduced in Brawl and not dropped since...and even having been considered for Melee). That means that Sonic's been around longer than about half the cast. Sonic's also the third party franchise with the best history with Nintendo - again not necessarily for having Sonic games on the systems, but for having the rivalry in the 90s in the first place. We love to bring up Crash or Rayman as respective company mascots, but none of them would have existed if it weren't for the war of the cute cartoon mascots in the early 90s. Sonic actually managed to get the first video game character balloon in the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade (and then was immediately discarded when it blew over and hurt someone, but that's not to do with him as a character). Sonic feels like he should have a special place even among the guests in Smash - the Sonic crew has crossed over with Mario's gang several times since Sega stopped making consoles, but in fact they haven't been getting much love in that department.
Now why Tails? He's well known as Sonic's best friend, he's always been considered the Luigi to Sonic's Mario. When a lot of us were kids, some people had an NES so they played Mario and their younger sibling took Luigi (or they were the younger one who got Luigi). But others had a Genesis, so Tails is right there in our minds for that set. Don't forget the EGM April Fools joke in 2002 - It wasn't just Sonic in Melee, it was Sonic
and Tails. It's really only recently that Tails has started to get a bit of a bad reputation since he's been getting recharacterized as a whiny little kid (which he is supposed to be about half Sonic's age) now that the team has expanded to include the badass edgemaster, the dumb muscle, and the love interest. Even so, we could poll a lot of people as to how many
really like Luigi for being Luigi when compared to the rest of the Mario crew...but even if he's not everyone's favorite since Peach/Bowser/Daisy/Wario/Yoshi exist, that doesn't stop him from being known as Mario's brother, partner, and therefore important to the cast.
Smash has had a use for Tails in the past - we all know that he, Knux, and Silver will run across GHZ. Sometimes. But Sm4sh also brought a Tails Mii outfit (if we're getting one again, can we get a mask instead of a mascot head though please?), along with the Knux outfit. For Ultimate, Knux got promoted to assist trophy, and Tails got demoted to ... nothing but his GHZ flyby. He's also a Spirit, which I usually count as a disconfirm...at least from DLC pack 1. And while we have important side characters from other game franchises like Master Belch from Mother as primary, Tails is stuck as a support spirit to boost the power of the Up special move...rgiht next to the Shine Sprite and the Wind Fish, which boost all specials for the same number of slots. It's almost like Tails' Spirit was made completely redundant, further showing him into unimportance.
Now, when Daisy and the concept of 'echoes' came out, everyone latched onto Shadow. True, Shadow'd make an easier echo. But, Tails' first appearance in Sonic 2 was just as an alternate skin. Tails couldn't fly through the level when you were playing as him; he acted just like Sonic. Even in the Sonic fighting game, Tails shared a lot of animations with Sonic himself. Could he be unique? Yeah. So could Daisy and Dark Samus. I really wouldn't mind Tails as a Sonic echo - and Sakurai could make it work if he wanted to. Let's face it, if he only flew around in his winposes and taunts (so basically acted as he did in his debut game), that'd almost be as ridiculous as Ganondorf only using a sword in winposes and taunts - and it's worked fine until now. Sure, we'd all appreciate if that changed and he used them more (which only took 17 years), but we all accepted him as Ganondorf then. I'd feel the same with Tails.
I'd love if Tails was gonna come in the pack, but that's almost impossible. The Sonic franchise could definitely use another stage that's
not Green Hill, considering how many of the songs are much more urban. I feel like the only way Tails could get in now would be if they do decide to give us bonus echoes along with the Mii costumes (or even DLC orginal character costumes?). I'd definitely pay for those, and Sakurai and co. have admitted that echoes are made because they're easier (and sharing stats allows them to balance them exponentially quicker). Oh, and in this case, the Spirit would be easy enough to handle as well. If they spent a while for each Spirit planning a battle, it's unlikely they're just gonna cut one. But now that there's no text attached, it'd be easy to just swap out the Spirit and use the current art for the Fighter Spirit. Tails' current Spirit would work perfectly if they just wanted to swap it out for the Tornado (Tails' biplane), and then nobody has to lose it. Or just ignore it, that works too...
However, the DLC isn't really looking that promising. I'll save most of this for its day, but it doesn't seem like Sakurai is that enthused about DLC. Sure, this will make bank for Nintendo and they should support it for years, but Sakurai doesn't seem like the kind of guy who'd hand the reins to someone else for DLC, and he continually talks about how he wants to step away. Thus, I'm basically considering this game will have less DLC than Sm4sh. And since we got that bomb dropped yesterday (I'm on team real for this leak - it seems too legit, even if it's basically a list of the names that will hype me the absolute least), it's really looking like he's not there, so he's out.
"We can only get one third party per company, and it has to be the main character" is another one of those infinite fanrules we've made up (and isn't it demonstrably false anyway, considering that Ken is almost more unique than Dr. Mario and Joker isn't the main character of the Persona franchise, only P5?) Tails is just being held back since he's not as "cool" as some of the other options in the franchise. And if Smash is considered a way to kickstart franchises, why not give the Sonic games a boost. We know they're gonna need one once we get more info on this movie...
(images are broken, so this is a pic of Mario and Luigi vs. Sonic and Tails)...Ahh, that'd be the dream...
Nom: More DLC x5
I'll answer the abstention thing in a sec - It's ending up longer than I thought and this post is already long enough.