Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[3DSNinja]

Chance:15%: I don't think he'll get in. Why , you might ask? Because his game is very old. Besides, Hollow Knight is already a very easy indie. And even Papyrus has a far greater chance due to recency and relevancy. Yeah, no.
Want: Abstain: Never played Cave Story.
Nominations: Hollow Knight x5, Shy Guy x5

 

[Sari]

Quote

Chance: 5%
Cave Story is arguably the grand daddy of all indie games that has been ported to just about every Nintendo system since the first WiiWare port. With the exception of a lone 2007 port to the PSP, the game has appeared exclusively on PC and Nintendo systems. Quote himself has even made various crossover appearances in games such as Bit Trip Runner and Blade Strangers. Shovel Knight and Shantae - two of the most popular indie contenders for Smash - are also seemingly out of the picture so that does give Quote a bit of room should an indie rep ever be chosen for Smash. That said however, if Shovel Knight and Shantae couldn't make it into Smash as playable characters then I doubt Quote could unfortunately.

Want: 100%
Reflecting on Cave Story for this rating has made me nostalgic. I guess I'll post some appropriate music:
Yes I know this is not the original version of this song but I like this version better.

Cave Story is a 2004 indie game made by a single person over the span of 5 years. It has received universal acclaim and I'd go as far as to argue that it shaped the indie genre as a whole ("b-b-but muh Shantae!"). My first experience with Cave Story was with the WiiWare port back in 2010. I instantly fell in love with the game and it holds the spot as my all time favorite indie title (Quote himself was my profile pic on SmashBoards for years until Isabelle got revealed). If you have never played Cave Story I would highly recommend that you do so; it's a fun metroidvania game that gets surprisingly hard and dark towards the end. You can legally download the original version for free online as Pixel originally released it as a free game. Enhanced versions of it are also available on most Nintendo systems and if you're quick you can get Cave Story+ for a discount on Steam before the winter sale ends on January 3rd.

As for Quote, he'd be a perfect fit for Smash. He has a ton of moveset potential due to all of the weapons he can use in the game and he'd fit in so well with the rest of the cast you'd probably forget that he's third party. Also if Quote ever makes it into Smash then Curly is a guaranteed alt costume/echo.

Katalina chance prediction: 3.88%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x10

Chance:15%: I don't think she'll get in. Why , you might ask? Because her game is very old.

Quote is a guy.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

""
Chance: 0.5%
The only indie game characters I see standing a chance are from games Sakurai has played/talked about in interviews, which I don't know if that applies to Cave Story. Being the protag of one of the oldest, still popular indies may help a bit but there are dozens of games right now who probably have surpassed Cave Story in populartity and recognizability in the indie scene, another popular game that takes place underground in particular. So I don't see Quote being the option they'd go with.

Want: Abstain

Katalina: 3.76%
Hollow Knight x10?

 

[RealPokeFan11]

"Unoriginal Nickname"
Chance: Abstaining
Want: Abstaining

Sorry. Never played Cave Story.

Crapalina 0%
Hitagay is old news and has been proven B.S.

Reaper x10

 

[Deleted member]

I’m pretty excited to talk about Quote.
CURLY BRACE YOURSELF

Chance :
Quote originates from the 2004 freeware indie game Cave Story, made alone by the Kapanese developer Pixel. Quote is the main protagonist of the game and is the game’s de facto mascot. But why is Cave Story significant, why are we rating this random maybe robot? Well, back in the day, Cave Story was pretty much the face of indie games. It arguably still is. It was one of the first indie games that was made by one guy that really achieved high-acclaim and success. I remember many sites giving it 9/10s or sometimes even 10/10s or 5 stars. The game has seen loads of re-releases, too many for me to list here, with many of them being on Nintendo consoles or sometimes exclusives to Nintendo systems. According to SteamSpy, Cave Story+ has been downloaded over 1 million times. Needless to say, the game’s pretty big for an indie game. Plus, the developer is Japanese, so communication should theoretically be easy for Sakurai and Nintendo. However, ultimately, Cave Story is still an indie game. We’ve seen indie game characters before in Smash, however the most one has gotten is an assist trophy in Shovel Knight. Perhaps the big N may consider an indie game too small to promote in Smash, and an assist trophy or spirit is the most one can get. A part of me also feels that Shovel Knight has surpassed Cave Story in terms of becoming the face of indie games, with it achieving it’s own huge success for an indie game and making many crossovers. Perhaps Cave Story is just an old Titan in terms of popularity. The game’s never had a proper sequel, although it has been re-released to this day. One must also consider that SK and Shantae had quite a bit of fan demand going behind them, yet they still couldn’t become playable. While Quote has had some demand, it’s nowhere near the level of the former two, which doesn’t bode well. There’s also the issue of licensing. You see, while Pixel originally owned Cave Story being the game’s developer and all, he made a deal with American company Nicalis to give them the complete rights to Cave Story. While Nicalis would likely be willing, considering they (for lack of a better term) ***** out their IPs a TON, they’re an American company, and nintendo might also want to contact Pixel for his approval too. Pixel also does seems to still have some ownership of the Cave Story IP, as he said that he does get money from the various re-releases after giving away the IP. That’s gonna make things complicated. Quote, unfortunately, is probably just too small these days for Nintendo to consider him as DLC.
5%
Only way I can see him getting in is if Nintendo or Sakurai really wants to represent Indie gaming and think Quote would be the best representative.

Want :
Hell yeah. Cave Story is still in my mind the DEFINITIVE indie game. People don’t seem to remember that it was pretty bug back in the day! Cave story is a wonderful game and Quote has plenty of moveset potential, with dozens of guns and a jet pack for recovery too. To this day, you can still go to Pixel’s old website and play the original 2004 version of Cave Story for free. I’d highly implore you to do so. Hell, do it right now. If you’re gonna pick an indie character, I can’t think of someone better than Quote due to sheer legacy. Well, except for maybe a certain magical girl, but we’ll get to her later.
95%


Noms: Ezio from Assasin’s Creed x10 (or however many nominations I can give him)

 

[PeridotGX]

Ending the day because I can doublepost.

Today we have Quote from Cave Story. The OG Indie. Cave Story is the grandfather of all indies. Can this Japanese indie game star make it in?

Tomorrow, time flies. Remember when Hitaji leaked Katalina from Granblue? Well I do. That is why she got put on the schedule. Predict her score.

Chance: 2%. I really can't see him happening. With Shovel Knight and Shantae out of the picture, both of which were likely more popular among smash fans, I doubt he's getting in.

Want: Abstain. I've never played Cave Story

Noms: Grovyle x10 (speaking of, on the schedule can he be referred to as "Grovyle (Pokemon Mystery Dungeon)"? I wan't people to know that's the primary reason we're rating him.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Indie One: A Smash Bros. Story

Chance: 9%
I don’t think an indie has what it takes to be a splashy DLC choice that would sell a lot. That’s kind of the point of indies.

I only think 5 indie games have a shot at ever being in Smash. Those are Shovel Knight (Disconfirmed), Shantae (Disconfirmed), Steve, someone from Undertale and Quote. Of them all, I think Quote is the one with the best shot. Undertale has the disadvantage of not having a clear pick and the fact that it would appear that most of its support is memes. Steve has the disadvantage that he wouldn’t work in Smash, would be widely hated and is owned by a competing company. Quote really has nothing going against him and has the bonus of seniority.

If we were talking a Smash 6 then I’d have to give Shovel Knight and Shantae the edge (SK was critically and commercially successful and spawned a new wave of indies, while Shantae has a large fanbase), but for now it’s Quote or nothin’.

Want: 50%
I have only played a tiny bit of Cave Story but I acknowledge its importance and place. I would be happy to see Quote and it might even push me over the edge to actually buy Cave Story.

Nominations: Mach Riderx10

Prediction for Katalina: 1%

The top seven will be known after Quote’s day ends.

Chance:15%: I don't think she'll get in. Why , you might ask? Because her game is very old. Besides, Hollow Knight is already a very easy indie. And even Papyrus has a far greater chance due to recency and relevancy. Yeah, no.
Want: Abstain: Never played Cave Story.
Nominations: Hollow Knight x5

Quote’s a guy.

Chance: 2%. I really can't see him happening. With Shovel Knight and Shantae out of the picture, both of which were likely more popular among smash fans, I doubt he's getting in.

Want: Abstain. I've never played Cave Story

Noms: Grovyle x10 (speaking of, on the schedule can he be referred to as "Grovyle (Pokemon Mystery Dungeon)"? I wan't people to know that's the primary reason we're rating him.

Will do.

 

[3DSNinja]

shows how much I know. I'll change it

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

""

Chance: 4%
This is honestly pretty generous for chance, but anything can happen as we all know by now. Quote is pretty much the original indie rep. If you want a character that represents indie games as a whole, it's either gotta be quote or meat boy. Quote seems more likely for smash because of Japan stuff.

Want: 70%
I love cave story. I LOVE cave story. Quote would be so cool as a fighter in Smash, and I can pretty easily think of at least 5 ways to make his moveset ridiculously awesome. He is my most wanted indie rep.

Katalina prediction: 64.23%

Noms: Bonkers x10

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Noms: Bonkers x5

You still can give him 10 noms instead of five, since this is the last day of double noms.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Merric pre-Quote

Over 200

Arle Nadja x355
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x315
Rhythm Girl x315
Nero Claudius (Fate) x260
Hollow Knight x257
Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x233
Mach Rider x225
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x225
Reimu Hakurei x220
Concept: More DLC x215
Reaper (Overwatch) x211
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x206


200 - 151

Concept: SNK rep x155

150 - 101

Sephiroth x145
Kat & Ana x130
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x130
Professor Hector x128
Andy (Advance Wars) x120
Ryota Hayami x115
Dark Matter x115
Ravio x115
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x110
Amy Rose x110
Brash the Bear x110
Dante x110
Sly Cooper x110
Concept: Boss Rush x110
Magikarp x109
Q*Bert x106
Shy Guy x105
Impa x101
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x101


100 - 51

Tracer x100
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x100
Monster Hunter x100
Poochy x100
Cranky Kong x100
Vaati x100
Concept: World of Light expansion x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Bonkers (Kirby) x100
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Porky Minch x91
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Concept: Style Savvy rep x70
9-Volt x64
Hat Kid x55
Spyro x52

50 - 25


Creeper x42
Frisk x40
Papyrus x39
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25


Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Concept: SNK rep bursts past 150 noms.

Shy Guy and Concept: Boss Rush pass 100 noms.

Today’s newcomers are Ezio Auditore da Firenze, Protector, Concept: Undertale Rep (100 noms each), Freddi Fish and Luther, Concept: Spectator Emotes (10 noms each), and Stahl with a single nomination.

Regularly scheduled reminder that FancySmash and Ze Diglett have 5 extra noms.

 

[3DSNinja]

Spoiler: Spoiler

Isn't Boss Rush confirmed because there is one in Smash Ultimate lol

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

You still can give him 10 noms instead of five, since this is the last day of double noms.

Thanks for the heads up

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstaining because I don't have any knowledge about Quote

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x10

 

[WaddleMatt]

Quote

Chance - 0.5%

Ehhhhhhh, anything is possible but Cave Story is pretty old now and yea it seems to be quite influential but there are other indie games which are more prominent now. Shovel Knight got in as an Assist Trophy and I don't think we are going to see any other indie character become playable over him if I am to be honest.

Want - Abstain

Never played Cave Story so I can't rate.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x10

 

[Ridrool64]

I'm just curious. What's the highest number of nominations any single character has ever gotten?

 

[Deleted member]

Quote:
Chance: 0%, Quote is too old.And if Shantae and Shovel Knight can't get in, I don't see Quote.
Want: 5%, If Quote gets in it'll allow the gates for other indies.But I don't really care about Quote.

Nomination: Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x10

 

[Paraster]

Quote

Chance: 25%. I'm giving better odds than others because I get the inkling that Smash is easing towards an indie fighter with the increased indie presence in Ultimate, and I firmly believe that Quote is the best candidate given how Cave Story is one of the most classic and important indie games out there (on top of the game's heavy presence on Nintendo consoles). That said, this is realistically a bit of a long shot given Cave Story's lack of prominence nowadays (although I wouldn't consider that a dealbreaker--if it was, we wouldn't have Ice Climbers, Mr. Game & Watch, or R.O.B.).

Want: 100%. On top of him being a great indie rep (which I really want), Quote has a lot of weapons that would make a cool moveset, as well as great potential for music and stages (and I also just love Cave Story).

Nomination: Hat Kid from A Hat In Time.

 

[Flyboy]

Quote
Chance: 10%
Rating whether Indies could get in Smash is tough. But if Indies are going to be in, Cave Story, Undertale, Minecraft, and in an insane longshot Touhou are the ones with the best chances. Cave Story has the benefit of being big for Nintendo and constantly released for Nintendo systems once Nicalis got the rights, and it's also massively influential. But... Anything not first party or "major" I have a hard time seeing as having any reasonable chance. The benefit Cave Story has over Undertale or Minecraft is that the creator is Japanese so that's definitely a point in its favor.

Also, for anyone saying Quote is "too old", you do realize Cave Story+ is on Switch as well, right...?

Want: 90%
Yes! Absolutely! Cave Story is amazing! It's been around the internet for most of my fandom life and I remember seeing it burst on the scene and take the internet by storm. I didn't actually get a chance to play it until a few years ago with Cave Story+ and I was absolutely enthralled. Beautiful music, engrossing story, awesome characters, amazing world... And moreover you can really tell where the rest of the Indy scene got their inspiration.

Also, as a character Quote would have a bunch of great projectiles and variety and man I'd really like a Curly echo and a Balrog assist and gosh my mind is running away with me! Basically, with the music and character that could be brought to the series, plus the history, I'd absolutely love to see Quote in Smash. One of my sleeper wants.

Nominations:
Style Savvy Rep x5
Ryota Hayami x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Quote

Chance - 2.5% - Quote's interesting in that what many would consider his main competition, in Shantae and Shovel Knight, are both gone. Quote was the first big indie, so having him would arguably make sense for an Indie representative. That said, indies are kinda unlikely in the first place.

Want - 60% - I'd like indie representation in some form. However, I feel like it should go to Shantae. Quote is still good though.


Nomination

Dark Matter X10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Spoiler

Isn't Boss Rush confirmed because there is one in Smash Ultimate lol

Spoiler: WoL spoilers

Do you mean the Galeem/Dharkon fight? Because if so, the concept is for a dedicated Boss Rush mode.

I'm just curious. What's the highest number of nominations any single character has ever gotten?

I’ll go check, but it’s probably Terry Bogard, who spent a lot of time as number 1 during a long fixed schedule.

Edit: the highest record I have in my brief tenure as nominations guy is Jin Kazama at 390, although I think he reached 400 the day he was locked into schedule.

 

[Nemuresu]

Quote:
Chance: 5%-I honestly think if we were to get an indie, it had to be Shovel Knight or Shantae. With them out of the way, I honestly have no reason to expect one of those in Smash.
Want: 0%-I've never been interested in Cave Story as a whole. In fact, I wasn't interested in Metroidvania games until getting around Aria of Sorrow and Symphony of the Night and finishing them. And from what I've seen from gameplay and stuff, it's not exactly my cup of tea.
Nominations: All-guests passx5
Dantex5

 

[RileyXY1]

Quote
Chance: 5%
With Shovel Knight as an AT, the chances of an indie character getting in are very low. However, it is possible that we'll get one, it's just not very likely.

Want: Abstain
I've never played Cave Story and I don't know much about Quote. I can't give an opinion.

Nominate: Concept: Spirits aren't deconfirmations x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Spoiler: WoL spoilers

Do you mean the Galeem/Dharkon fight? Because if so, the concept is for a dedicated Boss Rush mode.

Spoiler: World of Light

Yeah that:a what I meant, didn't know. so basically Brawl's boss battles, ok.

 

[Awakining]

Quote:

Chance: 0.75%

I don't believe indie characters are at all likely, but if any of them has a shot, I think it's Quote. A minuscule chance, but a non-zero chance nonetheless. Shovel Knight's presence must say something about Nintendo's opinions on indies, so I wouldn't be surprised if one makes it onto the roster relatively soon.

Want: Abstain

Although I've heard of Quote in different circles, I haven't had any personal experience with him. Therefore, I'm unable to give a fair opinion based on anything more than surface qualities, which are no measure of a character's merit.

Nominations: Porky x10

 

[Troykv]

The name outside of the text.

Chance: 15%

... What score I gave to Shantae? Well I don't think it doesn't matter. Anyway; Quote's biggest advantages compared with his competition are without a doubt his connection with Nintendo and his seniority as a indie game (There was a time where literally the only "indie" developers that I know that actually ended up being well known are Zun and of course Pixel, the creator of Cave Story); which makes his game find a way into the radar of Sakurai and Nintendo. His game are popular; but that as far a Indie Developer can go, so that it's the reason I gave my 15% Score; good enough; but not enough reasons to consider it.

Want: 50%

I played Cave Story a bit; it was a quite a fun experience; and I kind of see what direction it would the character get... Kind of.

_____

Predictions:

Katalina (Granblue): 9.5%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x10

 

[DaUsername]

"Abstaining."
Katalina prediction: 2%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x10

 

[ProfPeanut]

Quote

Chance: 8%
I think the big issue here would be whether Nintendo would be interested. Cave Story+ was ported onto the Switch in the middle of 2017 (or February of 2018, if you live in Japan), so any excitement over Cave Story would be waning by now until something else happens. You'd really have to ask yourself what Nintendo would get out of promoting a classic indie that they had practically no hand in creating, besides inspiring a few decisions through Metroid.

In terms of historical significance and circumstance, Cave Story has plenty going for it. It's older than most other indies by a considerable margin, and was practically the only indie game worth speaking about for the longest time in mainstream awareness. Unlike practically every other indie, its developer is based in Japan, so there'd hardly be any hewing and hawing about dealing with English-speakers (besides whatever they'd have to discuss with Nicalis). Lastly, Sakurai's undoubtedly aware of Cave Story's place in history, so it's unlikely he'd skip over Quote if he were on the list.

The problem mostly has to do with popularity, as certain other indies are certainly much more popular and mainstream than Cave Story is. If Smash dealt purely in significance/relevance, then Cave Story would still be the likeliest indie in spite of that, but we've already seen the protagonist of the most popular Persona game get into Smash over all the other SMT/Persona candidates. As fine as Quote is, he's simply not as profitably-big as other choices, which I think is a bigger driving choice behind the DLCs than the historically-minded would prefer. It's easy to forget that even though Cave Story still holds up, its time has passed for a long while now.

Want: 55%
Yeah, I finished Cave Story (It's an officially-distributed free download off the internet, people. At least demo it.) Quote's alright, but he's not the most engaging of characters himself, so I couldn't honestly say I'd be as excited for him as certain other indie candidates.


Prediction
Katalina: 0.8%

Nominations
Hat Kid x10

 

[3DSNinja]

so is Quote's day over yet? I want to give Katalina my terrible ratings.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

abstaining
Sephiroth x 10

Rate Katalina, predict Tails

 

[shocktarts17]

Katalina
Chance 0%
I think the only reason she ever entered the conversation was because of that one leaker. Now that they've backed up on her saying she wasn't in I think her chance is back to 0%. She's from a Japan exclusive mobile game, those together should say enough about her chances.

Want 0%
I had convinced myself that she wouldn't be the worst thing in the world during the leaks since I guess she has ice magic or something but I do not want her in just for that. They could randomly pick an ice type Pokemon or random mook that uses ice attacks from a Nintendo game and they would be a better fit.

Prediction Tails 13%
Nominations Ravio x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Literally who?

Chance: 0%
The only reason anyone mentioned her was because of Hitagi, who isn't worth listening to and never has been. If we get a character from a mobile game, the first one will be from a 1st party mobile game, not a 3rd party.

Want: 0%
Oh wow a girl with a sword how original! We don't have nearly enough swordsmen and swordswomen in this game, so I definitely would love to see her, obviously.

Tails prediction: 3%

Noms: Bonkers x5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Katalina:

Chance - 2%

Yes, I'm not giving her a zero just because Nintendo own 10% of Cygames and Dragalia Lost was a thing. But either way, we would most likely get a Dragalia Lost character first and plus shes Japan exclusive. Doesn't help that it appears the new Granblue games will be for the PS4.

Want - Abstain

I know literally nothing abou Granblue Fantasy but hey she has ice powers so thats pretty cool and give us the summer alt and I will main her obviously.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[Deleted member]

Katalina:
Chance: Abstain
Never heard of her/him. Honestly couldn't care less.
Want: Abstain
Never played the game he/she is from.
Never even payed the game in the first place.

Predict: Tails:
47%


Nominations: My boi!!
Freddi Fish and her friend Luther (Freddi Fish) x5

 

[Sari]

Katalina

Chance: 1%
The only thing Katalina really had going for her was that she was brought up by a supposed leaker named Hitagi, who has been supported by base roster leaker Vergeben. Hitagi later stated that they had no real proof of Katalina being added to Ultimate and IIRC they've been exposed as a phony anyway. Granblue is also Japan exclusive which I don't think would fare well for paid DLC being released around the world. Yes I know we have Roy and Lucas but by the time they were DLC in SSB4 people had already gotten to know them in Melee/Brawl. The only way I can see a gacha character being playable would be through a FE Heroes or Dragalia Lost character. Also as someone who knows nothing of Granblue and just started researching it today, aren't Gran/Djeeta the main protagonists of the game anyway? Even if we were to get a Granblue rep, there's a chance that Katalina would be in a similar spot as Azura and get ignored over the main characters.

Want: 0%
I don't think gacha games deserve a playable rep in Smash unless they are directly made by Nintendo. I'll gladly take a mii costume but not a character. If we were to get a gacha character there's also another ice-based female who would be higher up on my want list anyway.

Tails chance prediction: 4.12%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

HITAGAY's Nonsensical Bullcrap.
Chance: 0%
Want: 1%

This character was all the talk back when Hitagay was considered credible by Vergayben. Now it's 2019, and he was proven to be utter nonsense. Shortly after he "leaked" Katalina, he immediately backpedaled and said "she was false information". Makes sense considering she's from an obscure, third party, Japanese exclusive mobile game.

The 1% want score is only because she's kinda hot, and she uses ice powers. Outside of that, I don't care for her inclusion, and I would prefer many other characters over her. Also, did I forget to mention that she's yet another swordfighter? She looks like she came straight from Fire Emblem.

Tails: 15.24%
(My favorite Sonic character!)

Reaper x5

 

[SPEN18]

Katalina
Chance: 1%
I wonder what this would've been at the height of the Hitagi speculation. But now the Katalina stuff seems to have faded with Hitagi retracting certain statements. And really, you have to squint to see her making sense, as she's a Japanese mobile game character.

Want: 0%
I'll pass. Not particularly popular within the Smash fanbase and also not particularly notable among other third parties. There's just bigger fish to fry. And maybe she could be unique, but almost anybody can.

 

[Nemuresu]

Katalina:
Chance: 20%-Hitagi backtracking on her is probably what hurts her chances the most, however, I can still see Katalina happening, if only because Granblue is incredibly popular, and Cygames is aspiring to make their IP as worldwide popular as possible, so maybe they could talk with Nintendo about it.
Want: 10%-I'll take another ice user over Ice Climbers, that's for sure. But outside of that, there's nothing that interests me about her.
Nominations: All-guests passx5

 

[Ridrool64]

Icicle Fingernails and Icicle Toenails

Chance: 0.01%. Literally everything that pointed to her inclusion rided on a single leaker, who is now of dubious reliability at best and is all but totally exposed as a fraud at worst. Nothing else vaguely points to her inclusion whatsoever, and I'd be remiss to assume she's likely. Granted, she could happen, and Hitagi could be totally right, but there's not much to say here. Left-field, so maybe?

Want: 30%. 20% of that is out of sheer pity from being probably more hated than Steve, and only 10% is what she could legitimately bring to the table. I'd rather Arle, and if she doesn't count, Anna for a mobage character. I am unsure on how she'd stand out. She's pretty cute though, if nothing else.

Arle Nadja x 5. Tails, like Arle, got Joker'd, and is a Spirit to boot, so he will struggle to break 7.12%.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

An Actual Literally Who

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Well, there's one reason anyone's even considering her, and that's that Vergeben said that Hitagi was trustworthy, and Hitagi said Katalina's in. Cue the massive amounts of trying to figure out who the heck she was.

Katalina is basically an extension of the idea that since Roy and Lucas are in Smash, that Japan-only characters are likely. However, the DLC needs to sell, so putting in a character only known to one country isn't the smartest thing a company could do. I'll give a 1% chance since Nintendo's not known to do the most intelligent thing at any time, but it still seems like a weird choice. I can even picture Reggie Fils-Aimé asking who she is if that were to come up.

Granblue is a mobile game which is only available in Japan. Now, I'm not going to go nuts on "eew, mobile games are not real games," but the fact that Granblue is only available for part of the world really does hit her notoriety. I can't see her DLC selling that well if nobody recognizes her beyond "generic waifu."

Oh, and I suppose I should also give the standard swordsman-equals-Marth-clone argument? I'm sure she could have a lot of cool powers otherwise, but nobody knows them...and if we want to play her game for ourselves, we need to get an emulator and a translator...

Now, there is the chance that, since Nintendo owns part of the company, they want to bring this character and franchise to the west. Still, that's much easier to do with base game, since then you're guaranteed that everyone has it. There's no guarantee that Westerners will buy Katalina and then continue to be Granblue fans.

But like I've said before...there are few slots, so I'm decently selective. And I don't need another DLC character I've never heard of.

Nom: More DLC x5