Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Elma

Chance: 20%. Still an amazing and notable choice, and fell into the right time for the base roster. She's closer to Robin in comparison, the easily most notable character in the game and a great choice. Might become DLC.

Want: I never played Xenoblade, but she seems great? 5% at least.

Noms: Brian x 10(I have double, might as well use it).

Also, I forgot to add a percentage of likeliness for Dixie last time on my Noms and Predictions. I'll edit that in in a bit.

Predictions: Additional Echo Fighters; 59%. Reasonable chance.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Elma

Chance: 20%. Still an amazing and notable choice, and fell into the right time for the base roster. She's closer to Robin in comparison, the easily most notable character in the game and a great choice. Might become DLC.

Want: I never played Xenoblade, but she seems great? 5% at least.

Noms: Brian x 10(I have double, might as well use it).

Also, I forgot to add a percentage of likeliness for Dixie last time on my Noms and Predictions. I'll edit that in in a bit.

Predictions: Erdrick 90%

Predictions are an attempt to guess what the chance score will be for the following day. Today, we’re predicting Echo Fighters as DLC, as that will be rated tomorrow.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Predictions are an attempt to guess what the chance score will be for the following day. Today, we’re predicting Echo Fighters as DLC, as that will be rated tomorrow.

Oh, so Dixie wasn't from yesterday's prediction, right? If I misread how it worked, please don't count that one. Apologies.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Elma
Chance: 35%
Assuming Spirits don't deconfirm, I'd say, alongside Bandee, Elma's one of the likelier non-echo first-party choices. She isn't gonna fade into irrelevancy anytime soon now that she's in XC2 and a sequel to X does seem to be likely to happen in the future. The lack of any piece of Xenoblade X music also raises some eyebrows. Who knows, they might save that for a fighter back.

Want: 51%
No experience with her or anything Xenoblade. At this point however, I just want someone to blow the forbidden rule of characters who have spirits being deconfirmed for DLC the hell out, so I can sleep at night confident that my boy and others still have a shot. Also she has a way better design than R&P so I gladly would take her over them.

Echoes: 35.48%
Hollow Knight x5

 

[RandomAce]

Elma:

Oh boy, another one I wanted to do. Let’s start shall we?

Chance: 60%
I think Elma has a bigger shot than most people realize.

She was recently pushed heavily by Monolith Soft by giving an extensive DLC update in XC2 related to Elma, more so than even Shulk/Fiora. The composer for X, Sawano, has said to be working on a secret music project that still hasn’t been revealed. Rex not being in the fighter pass due to time constraints, means that Elma would still be the only recent Xenoblade character to choose from as well. Elma can also bring a lot new to the table. Not only gameplay wise with a unqiue dual gun/blade moveset and unique special abilities like Ghost Factory, but she is cosmetically a very different character, being a strong woman of color, which isn’t something you see a lot in Nintendo games.

These last pieces are more out there, but they are some food for thought. Firstly, the representation X has gotten is really weird. As someone earlier has mentioned, X isn’t named in the files as Xenoblade Chronicles X, but just the series name in general when content from other titles that are part of other series, even lesser known ones have been named from the specific games they’re from. Secondly, all X got in terms of content was spirits (not even music), and they aren’t even in World of Light and are exclusive to spirit boards, making them feel that they were added last minute. Perhaps it may indicate that they had to move plans for Elma and XCX content to DLC, but didn’t want to exclude the spirits since it would make it more obvious that they are working on Elma? And Thirdly, Elma’s VA, Caitlyn Glass, has been under NDA recently, around the time DLC would be in development (around November) and unlike other VA’s like Skye Bennet, who confirmed that she wasn’t called to voice Pyra in any capacity after responding to someone about them in Smash... Caitlyn hasn’t been direct in terms of Elma being a newcomer, not really deconfirming her and mostly responding neutrally (or not at all in some cases), the most she did being that Elma is her most wanted for Smash.

There’s also the fact that Monolith Soft has confirmed that they are working on an upcoming title to Xenoblade. And with X getting a cliffhanger that leads to a potential sequel along with Monolith Soft stating that they were interested in working on a sequel to X. Introducing Elma to Smash could help promote a potential XCX2 since she most likely will reappear unlike Shulk and Rex.

Want: 100%
Elma is one of my most wanted characters for Smash, and favorite characters in general.

It was at first her design and moves that made me interested, but after watching through X, I started to like her more and more along with X itself. X honestly feels like the biggest omission from Wii U, especially considering how big the game is (literally) and how X can do so well on the Switch.

 

[Troykv]

Elma:

Chance: 25%

Everything about her is... weird... the representation of Xenoblade X being very limited but still present in the form of only spirits, the recent updates with Elma in Xenoblade 2, the several comments about Xenoblade X going to Switch or not (or the sequel being pretty much a thing), the character seems to be connected with the development in some form because of the robot-thing Sakurai was supposed to use in Smash Ultimate as a model.

Elma is a character that in any moment would become relevant again for DLC thanks to these things; the only reason I can't give her I higher score is because she is in this weird limbo of being already represented in the game, and the DLC looking to be more Third Party Focused.

Want: 55%

She looks cool; I like Silver Heads; and I like futuristic stuff; I have read some stuff about potential moveset with Elma and sounds quite engaging.

____________________________________

Prediction:

Additional Echo Fighters: 39.6% (Not exactly very likely, but the biggest wild card in Smash Bros Speculation without a doubt).

Nomination:

Reimu Hakurei x10

 

[RawstyleEevee]

Elma:

Chance: 5%

She is a character that had freaking everything in her favour for baseroster, minus overall popularity because in the ballot she had to duke it out with cut veterans and Ridley & K.rool, which are characters on a leauge of their own when it came to popularity. Still Elma's main advantages where that she would forfill other criteria Sakurai looks at when he decides a character and that is bringing an unique gimmick that makes a character stand out on the roster and timing(which was Elma's biggest advantage in general), but what we got instead is that X is the most shafted game there is in Ultimate.

The Music is understandable because that could have been legal issues with Sawano, but X's spirits are the only spirits they refuse to acknowledge that they come from X in an hidden file, while real flops or obscure stuff like Code Name Steam or Tokyo Mirage get this priviledge.

Incineroar's development time is also a red flag for Elma + Rex & Pyra, because while Pokemon always gets a reserved slot on the roster, this time Sakurai waited longer then normal, because Incineroar's concept art popped up in 2016(Greninja situation), but Sakurai waited after USUM released which was late 2017 (and lets be real at that point Sakurai and Gamefreak also knew which gen 7 mons where real popular unlike Incineroar). But the point I want to make clear is that in this timeframe they could easily had considerd Rex & Pyra as a promotional rep or atleast not ignore Elma.

Xenoblade 2 for a game that was considerd to late also got alot of content at base. Xenoblade 2 got mii costumes, 3 songs and the Spirits are acknowledged and included in WoL, unlike the X spirits who are excluded/super last minute. So yeah if a game is to late for base, but they wanted to promote that game, Xenoblade 2 in my eyes should have been threated like the Lets Go spirits

Takahashi constantly flipflops on X, like the last concrete info we have on an X port is that it would be to exspansive to port and while XCX2 is still possible, I feel it should have already been announced, because you don't want to make people wait that long on a sequal with a cliffhanger like that, and for the sake of the X fans Takahashi has to come clean at this point whats up with the whole situation, because of how X is treated in Smash you are giving the signal this game is something Nintendo and Monolith wants to forget.

The last point is offcourse Spirit theory, but I feel the only character that have a chance to break that are Rex & Pyra/Mythra, because Xenoblade 2 is far more popular and mainstream and Monolith even went to such lenghts to make the censored Mythra spirit a costume for Xenoblade 2 and Torna, plus Sakurai has praised Xenoblade 2 and apologised to Rex fans when they revealed the mii costume. Still spirit theory is a very ugly theory to knock down so i'm in the camp that they all will be 3rd Party, which is why I shifted my views to KOS-MOS as my Xenorep.

Want:

50%

While I prefer Mythra myself, Elma would rep the other side of the Xenoblade series and the X series is something that has major unexplorered potential, but like I said i'm very worried about its future, but Elma's inclusion would atleast give the right signal that the X side of the Xenoblade series is not forgotten!
I honestly more support Elma for the X fans, then for my own bias.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Elma:

Chance - 15%

Ok, so I do feel we will have at least one Nintendo character for DLC and Elma is one of the few I can think of that would make sense. It is really looking like Rex and Pyra won't be making it in due to the Rex Mii Costume being a part of the Fighter Pass but Elma still has a shot at being our new Xenoblade character. To me however it relies on one thing, a port of X. If we get a port of X this becomes a lot more likely. I've put her at 15% for now but I think this could drop or rise depending on circumstances.

Want - Abstain

I haven't played Xenoblade Chronicles X.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[[Maple]]

Elma Time Baby!

Chance: 20%

It is true that most the DLC are going to be third party, but I think at least one is going to be a first party. Elma chance were really better during the base roster era but she still has some good arguments for her. Well first there is still a big lack of X content in the game. It is hard to believe there is not a single music from the game. Xenoblade Chronicles X is the biggest and most ambitious game of the WiiU era behind Breath of the Wild. It even helped to accelerate the dev of Xenoblade Chronicles 2. So when I see that more obscure titles like Codename: STEAM have tracks in the game, this is very strange. Plus she was revelant during the smash ultimate plan and she still is in some way since her inclusion as a blade in Xenoblade Chronicles 2 and maybe she will get a cameo in Daemon X Machina (pure hope from myself).

On the other side Elma is not that much popular. Don't get me wrong she has fans but her inclusion over Rex (who is way more popular) would create a lot of noise. With all that I think her chances are 20%. Not great, but not impossible. For me she is one of the more likely first party.

Want: 100%

I love Xenobalde Chronicles X. It is true that the story and characters in XCX are not excellent, but the OW is stuning in term of design and the soundtrack by Sawano kicked some ass. There is so much potential for a sequel and Elma in smash would be a good way to promote X or a sequel. Plus she is freakin cool in battle with dual guns and dual blades.

 

[PeridotGX]

Elmo

Chance: 5%. She has things going for and against her. For positives, there's still no XBX content beyond spirits, which is suspect. The XB dev team have also talked about porting X, giving it a promotional option. But then again, Elma is already a spirit, plus it's looking more and more likely it's only going to be 3rd parties.

Want: Abstain. I've never played XBX

Noms: Grovyle x6, Maxwell x4

 

[DaUsername]

Abstain.
Prediction 20%
Stages outside fighter pass x5

 

[lordvaati]

View attachment 185732

Why do you call everything non-Western "anime aesthetic"? Elma doesn't look anime, she's in fact a lot more realistic-looking than half the goddamn cast. Is Little Mac "anime"? Because she doesn't look different from Little Mac to me. This argument is weaksauce as ****.

She's got a 1980s Galaxy Express esque anime look to her so it's not wrong.

But at the same time it's not a bad quality either.

 

[Deleted member]

ELMA IN A SKELL-MA

Chance :
Elma is one of the primary characters from Xenoblade Chronicles X, arguably serving as the game’s main character despite you playing as Cross. She’s a colonel in the military organisation BLADE and is notable for using both dual swords and dual guns, alongside the ability to pilot a mech-suit called a Skell. When referring to new Xenoblade characters, Elma is one of the primary names. She can certainly provide a unique moveset with her dual-wielding and within her own game she holds high importance. She was even brought back in Xenoblade Chronicles 2 as a DLC blade, so the developers certainly consider her significant. Plus, there is very little Xenoblade X content in Ultimate, so the potential for a DLC pack is certainly there. However, Elma mainly suffers from timing and sales. Xenoblade Chronicles X was released at the end of 2015 and didn’t sell particularly well, with Monolith suggesting that a Switch port won’t happen in the near future. Her game is over three years old, and with Ultimate’s project plan being made around the same time, it seems likely that if she were to get in it would have been in the base game. Her game could be considered old-news by Nintendo now that the DLC is being released, and with a an unclear future ahead of her, it seems likely that Nintendo would consider her too small a name for a DLC. Her best chance is if DLC was decided sometime in 2016 where her game still had some relevance, and Nintendo actually does want to promote an X port. Given Joker’s reveal, the timing for DLC seems unclear however.
15%
She does seem like a base-or-bust characters but who know what could happen to Xenoblade X. Maybe a sequel could happen.

Want :
She’d be cool. I think a dual guns switching with dual swords could be a cool moveset idea, and her getting into a Skell would be an obvious final smash. No reason to really object to her, but I haven’t played Xenoblade X so I don’t have a big connection with her either. Wouldn’t mind if she got in though plus she is kinda hot
45%
Noms: Ezio X5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Elma

2% Chance

This is me being generous.

As the days go by, I am more and more sold on the idea that spirits are a death knell. Elma is an unlockable spirit. That alone knocks her down. However, her biggest hurdle is timing.

Rex is undeniably something to consider in the future. While his chances for Wave 1 is bunk due to the Mii Costume, future waves will have him be something to consider. As such, Elma, without an X rerelease in sight has her chances plummet after the first wave. It won't matter if she is the main character of XCX. XCX is old news. It will turn four this year. XC2 meanwhile still is in memory due for nintendo.

I usually do not knock relevancy, but Elma is not as popular as Rex. Here, we see a bit of a hatebase for Rex. But if you look across the internet, Rex is something that is considered. He is especially popular in Japan. Elma meanwhile does not have that. She is not super popular outside of niche markets. XCX was not a huge success like XC2 was.

This wave is a now or never case. If she gets in, it is during this wave. If not, she will not be a viable character. Period.

35% Want

As time goes by, there are characters I have soured on. Paper Mario is one of my favorite examples of this. I was a huge supporter of Paper Mario pre SSB4. I made an amazing moveset for him. I argued in his favor. Nowadays, I have grown apathetic and even slightly displeased with the idea. For him it was time that dulled him for me.

Elma is someone I dulled on as well. At first I felt indifferent leaning on in favor of her being in. She seemed cool enough, she had a decent design, XCX has a great soundtrack. The affection her fans lead me to even finally get around to playing X.

And then I no longer supported her. Elma felt like a bland protagonist playing through the game. She felt like more someone to move along the limited plot of X rather than a character. She was better than Cross at least, but I felt that she was not... interesting. Her moveset also was not as interesting when I played XC2 again. Rex and Pyra have a clear gimmick. They would clearly be unique. Elma, while unique, would be not interesting in how they were unique. I fail to see her as interesting.

Honestly the only reason this is not lower is two factors. Firstly, I like the soundtrack of X. It being absent from Smash Ultimate is a crying shame. Neo Los Angeles would be an awesome stage.

Then there is her supporters. Much like Krystal and Shantae, even if I do not want the character, I have some begrudging respect for these guys. They are motivated and active. They do not hesitate to sell their character. I disagree w the pitch, but they do try to sell me. It is better than some fanbases on here who never sell their character well (not naming names).

Nominating Sephiroth x 5

Today we have a concept. Echo Fighters as dlc. This is simply them not being one of the five fighters in the fighters pass. Maybe we get one as an echo of a fighters pass character. Maybe as an individual thing shown off. Maybe we just get one as a freebie. Rate us getting any echo fighter DLC today.

Tomorrow we have Demille from Tomato Adventure. He is a spirit and he is Japanese exclusive. Predict him.

Also, Demilles day will be the last day to nominate things before we have our top seven ready.

 

[Sari]

Echo Fighter DLC

Chance: 20%
I still find it weird how they made a big deal about echos but in the end we didn't get that many: only 5 new ones, three of which (Daisy, Richter, Dark Samus) have almost no differences from their original counterparts. I think there's a decent chance that Sakurai will throw us a little echo bonus down the line whether it be one from the fighter pass or a completely separate echo pack. With the main focus being the 5 season pass characters + stages I can't say I'm too hopeful however.

Want: 100%
More characters is always a good thing. Some specific echos I'd like to see would be Celica as a echo or Princess Hilda as a echo.

Demille chance prediction: 0.61%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

 

[Deleted member]

Echo Fighter DLC
CHANCE!!!!!!!!! :
10% I don't see Sakurai doing it. I just don't. They take a long time for something most people wouldn't buy. And Sakurai did say they do take longer than ya'll think.

WANT!!!!!!!!! :
80%, I would love for more Echo fighters. And particularly hope for Slippy Toad and Glass Joe.





NOMINATIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :
Steaddi Dish and Loafers Freddi Fish and Luther x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ninten and Black Shadow

Chance: 1%
They probably don’t know how to sell them. They’re in that weird sweet spot where they aren’t stupid easy stuff to make like a Mii Costume, but at the same time if they’re going to make a Fighter they might as well allocate resources to a fully unique one. Besides, they probably expect uniques to be way better sellers.

Want: 100%
The concept of Echo Fighters was great and they did ****ing nothing with it. Isabelle wasn’t an Echo, Dr. Mario wasn’t an Echo, they didn’t do Shadow, they didn’t even do Dixie. The potential is just there. Ninten, Black Shadow, Medusa, Impa, Louie, there are a ton of characters that could be Echoes and that people would be delighted to see (although it’s kinda sad how they went in a more fanservice direction for the easy clones than the unique ones). Regardless, would pay for an Echo. Hell, if they’re as awesome as Dark Samus, as beloved as Chrom or as different as Ken, I’d pay full Fighter price.

Nominations: Mach RiderX5

Echo Fighter DLC
CHANCE!!!!!!!!! :
10% I don't see Sakurai doing it. I just don't. (yay, 2 sentences)

WANT!!!!!!!!! :
80%, I would love for more Echo fighters. And particularly hope for Slippy Toad and Glass Joe.





NOMINATIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :
Steaddi Dish and Loafers Freddi Fish and Luther x5

I don’t count one liners like ‘I just don’t’ as sentences so you might want to think a bit more for this one. Also how would Slippy be an Echo?

 

[Deleted member]

I don’t count one liners like ‘I just don’t’ as sentences so you might want to think a bit more for this one. Also how would Slippy be an Echo?

Ok, changed it.
Slippy Toad as an echo for Fox/Falco, what else could he be?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ok, changed it.
Slippy Toad as an echo for Fox/Falco, what else could he be?

He couldn’t be an Echo, he has a different body type and is way shorter.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Echo DLC:

Chance: 40%

As separated fighters, these are far easier to make and help get in a few extra stragglers. This is why I believe they have a reasonable chance. There's a lot, even though they may be disconfirmed, it's not exactly hard to add 'em in due to fan demand. Stuff like Shadow is at least easy. Ones like Dixie sound super unlikely in comparison. Ninten could go either way. I'm trying to think of other easy choices. But other than AT's, not many exist. I guess maybe somebody could work as an Echo of one of the 6 regular DLC characters? Like another Hero for Erdrick.

 

[Deleted member]

He couldn’t be an Echo, he has a different body type and is way shorter.

true enough.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna just get this out of the way now.

Echo Fighter DLC

33% Chnace

I feel honestly this is something Nintendo may have interest in. Maybe something like an echo fighter pass, where they can create characters for less effort than say the Fighters Pass. It makes sense economically too. If the fighters pass is 25 together and 6 bucks separate, imagine echos at like 10 and 2.50 separate. If they made them interesting enough, they could seriously make a ton of money. Smash sells.

100% Want

It helps characters I want like Dixie or Ninten. Why wouldn't I want it? Give me Dixie. Give me Ninten. Give me Black Shadow. I want it all baby. I will take Medusa as well.

Sephiroth x 5

 

[Good Guy Giygas]

Echo Fighter DLC

Chance: 10%
I can't really see them adding any echoes in the current fighter pack since it's designed solely around 5 completely new characters + a corresponding stage. They wouldn't really gain anything by adding any echoes in for free, but I suppose they could possibly sell a few more echoes separately after the initial DLC pack. The concept could happen, but I don't think it's very likely at the moment, regardless of how "easy" echoes are to make.

Want: 70%
Yea, it'd be cool to see some more echoes since it's basically even more characters. The only problem is I'm not too keen on having to pay extra for them. I guess for me it'd depend on who they'd end up being, but I'm not sure I'd be willing to shell out more money for them. I like the ones that we got in the base game, but I can't even really think of any other echoes I'd be dying to see...

Nominations: Mach Rider x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Attack of the Clones

Chance: 1%. Unless we have a hidden third set of DLC, right now I'm pretty sure we're just going to get two types of DLC: the Fighter Pass, and Mii Costumes. Everything else is not listed and thus is not the case.

Want: 30%. I mean I think there's a lot of potential clones that didn't make the cut, and the low amount we have right now (out of 71 unique fighters, not even 10% have Echoes) means there's plenty of room. But I don't really care and would rather they kept making uniques.

Arle x 5, Demille shouldn't break 0.31% due to the things working against him.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Echo Fighters as DLC

Chance: 33%
If they're really "lower effort", then surely it's possible, isn't it? Other online Nintendo games - Splatoon 2, ARMS, anything on mobile - are able to create free downloadable content, but Smash has yet to dabble in additional free fighters beyond Mewtwo and Piranha Plant. One could argue for it, surely, especially since there's a lot of desirable echoes such as Octoling and Dixie Kong com, but they've all also got spirits, and we're still unsure as to how hard of a deconfirmation those are. Not to mention, it's hard to say how Sakurai feels about echoe candidates now being pleaded for at his doorstep.

Want: 99%
Free brownie points, Nintendo, just like all the ones you got for appeasing the Daisy/Chrom/Dark Samus supporters. While I'd love for them to be free, simply giving the option for people to buy them would be enough.


Prediction
DeMille: 5%

Nominations
Hat Kid x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Echo Fighter DLC
Chance: 5%-It's a really odd thing to use as an argument, but looking at the website, you get full columns and rows with the five DLC characters added on to it, sounds absurd, but that's kind of what happened with the Box Theory. Also, may be much more of an opinion, but ending the roster in 81/83 (number depends on whether you consider Pokémon Trainer as one or three characters), would not make too much sense compared to the 80/82 that you get with just the five DLC.
Want: 0%-The only ones I cared about were Shadow who got axed, and Ken, who is in. Also, out of the five echo fighters added to the game, three were glorified enhanced skins, nothing that I'm interested in.
Nominations: Dantex5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

More Clones!

Chance: 1%
Want: 100%

Can we just take a second to appreciate how people would have reacted to the concept of getting more clones before they were rebranded as echoes?

Sakurai's made it a point that Echoes take significantly less dev time than the others since they don't need to go crazy balancing them - they are made based off of other fighters, so they'll probably have the same needs/effects. They're also seen as a way to put in characters who, while popular, are not capable of existing on their own as unique characters, but we still have the option of using them.

It seems so logical to just throw some of them in. We're obviously getting Mii costumes, so throwing in an echo to go with a Mii costume pack is the most obvious thing in the world. Besides, they'd definitely be able to charge more for an echo than a Mii costume (if individual Mii costumes are $0.75 and each pack is around $6, $1.50-$2 would be a natural and acceptable price for an echo), while the work involved would really focus around just modelling and animating it. It'd print money!

And that's why I think it's not going to happen.

Nintendo has really seemed allergic to making money sometimes. After all - every time they introduce some hype thing (amiibo, (S)NES classic, etc.) or try to get us to buy something (nintendo online, but only NES on virtual console), they botch it somehow. With all of Sakurai's comments about how he's tired and wants to be done, and how he also comes off as the kind of person who absolutely refuses to hand over the reins to someone else, it really does seem like the DLC's gonna end quicker than usual. Which is a shame - if this DLC pack ends up mostly (all) third-party, this is a great place to give some 1st party (or duped 3Ps) some love.

Now if it happens, I can see a lot of echo rules being broken. After all, look at how much Daisy shares with Peach (literally everything except idles and attack effects) versus Ken/Ryu (different stats, different attack anims, etc.). We all have a habit of trying to read too much into Sakurai's explanations, when most things are probably a lot less complex. Case in point: how long did we talk about Zelda's different outfit based on the "BotW Zelda is more of a researcher, not a fighter" statement, when the answer was probably as simple as "Ganondorf isn't in BotW so we couldn't use that, and we wanted her in a skirt." Where am I going with this? "Isabelle's not an echo since she's got a different bodyshape!" ... or maybe it's that she's too important and they wanted to give her different specials instead, so that's why. Having different proportions didn't stop them from giving her a lot of Villager's anims... Basically, I think 'Echo' means 'whatever the heck they want it to.'

So I'd be up for some reimagining that is a bit more than 'this character is basically a color swap so they are the only choice.' What I'd go nuts over...

Tails over . He's already got his normal running animation for his GHZ cameo, and not many of the attacks need to be changed. Mainly change the uthrow to be a tail attack. Give him some new taunts and victory screens (at least one of those should have him flying - he doesn't need to fly in game) and we're good. Yeah, Tails is normally shorter too, so you could shrink his hitboxes and possibly have Tails a bit slower, but I'd overlook that. Also the tails, but they don't need to be hitboxes. And like I said the day before yesterday - change the current Tails Spirit to the Tornado, and we even solve that problem.

Twili Midna over . With the rebranding, there's now no TP characters in the cast. Twili Midna in HW has loads of moves that resemble Zelda's attacks, so it'd be a matter of changing her fire attacks to darkness, changing the effects of the specials (Din's Fire to a Sol would be another way to use WFT's Solar effect), and change the Phantom summon to a Twilight Creature. She could steal movement animations from Rosalina and get her set of taunts/victory poses. Also, no size changes needed - Twili Midna is supposed to be tall, and Zelda's always been the second tallest of the Zelda crew.

Also, I'm sure the Dixie (), Octoling (), Zeraora (), Black Shadow (), Celica (), and Impa () fans would prefer this to not being in as anything beyond a spirit in the first place. And Boshi () for Zinith

Nom: More DLC x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

More Clones!

Chance: 1%
Want: 100%

Can we just take a second to appreciate how people would have reacted to the concept of getting more clones before they were rebranded as echoes?

Sakurai's made it a point that Echoes take significantly less dev time than the others since they don't need to go crazy balancing them - they are made based off of other fighters, so they'll probably have the same needs/effects. They're also seen as a way to put in characters who, while popular, are not capable of existing on their own as unique characters, but we still have the option of using them.

It seems so logical to just throw some of them in. We're obviously getting Mii costumes, so throwing in an echo to go with a Mii costume pack is the most obvious thing in the world. Besides, they'd definitely be able to charge more for an echo than a Mii costume (if individual Mii costumes are $0.75 and each pack is around $6, $1.50-$2 would be a natural and acceptable price for an echo), while the work involved would really focus around just modelling and animating it. It'd print money!

And that's why I think it's not going to happen.

Nintendo has really seemed allergic to making money sometimes. After all - every time they introduce some hype thing (amiibo, (S)NES classic, etc.) or try to get us to buy something (nintendo online, but only NES on virtual console), they botch it somehow. With all of Sakurai's comments about how he's tired and wants to be done, and how he also comes off as the kind of person who absolutely refuses to hand over the reins to someone else, it really does seem like the DLC's gonna end quicker than usual. Which is a shame - if this DLC pack ends up mostly (all) third-party, this is a great place to give some 1st party (or duped 3Ps) some love.

Now if it happens, I can see a lot of echo rules being broken. After all, look at how much Daisy shares with Peach (literally everything except idles and attack effects) versus Ken/Ryu (different stats, different attack anims, etc.). We all have a habit of trying to read too much into Sakurai's explanations, when most things are probably a lot less complex. Case in point: how long did we talk about Zelda's different outfit based on the "BotW Zelda is more of a researcher, not a fighter" statement, when the answer was probably as simple as "Ganondorf isn't in BotW so we couldn't use that, and we wanted her in a skirt." Where am I going with this? "Isabelle's not an echo since she's got a different bodyshape!" ... or maybe it's that she's too important and they wanted to give her different specials instead, so that's why. Having different proportions didn't stop them from giving her a lot of Villager's anims... Basically, I think 'Echo' means 'whatever the heck they want it to.'

So I'd be up for some reimagining that is a bit more than 'this character is basically a color swap so they are the only choice.' What I'd go nuts over...

Tails over . He's already got his normal running animation for his GHZ cameo, and not many of the attacks need to be changed. Mainly change the uthrow to be a tail attack. Give him some new taunts and victory screens (at least one of those should have him flying - he doesn't need to fly in game) and we're good. Yeah, Tails is normally shorter too, so you could shrink his hitboxes and possibly have Tails a bit slower, but I'd overlook that. Also the tails, but they don't need to be hitboxes. And like I said the day before yesterday - change the current Tails Spirit to the Tornado, and we even solve that problem.

Twili Midna over . With the rebranding, there's now no TP characters in the cast. Twili Midna in HW has loads of moves that resemble Zelda's attacks, so it'd be a matter of changing her fire attacks to darkness, changing the effects of the specials (Din's Fire to a Sol would be another way to use WFT's Solar effect), and change the Phantom summon to a Twilight Creature. She could steal movement animations from Rosalina and get her set of taunts/victory poses. Also, no size changes needed - Twili Midna is supposed to be tall, and Zelda's always been the second tallest of the Zelda crew.

Also, I'm sure the Dixie (), Octoling (), Zeraora (), Black Shadow (), Celica (), and Impa () fans would prefer this to not being in as anything beyond a spirit in the first place. And Boshi () for Zinith

Nom: More DLC x5

I don't think Zeraora, Celica, and Impa fit the characters you listed. I think those are better off as unique.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I don't think Zeraora, Celica, and Impa fit the characters you listed. I think those are better off as unique.

Zeraora absolutely doesn't. They have very different bodyshapes that are only tangibly similar. Impa actually could, but isn't her only similar enough model maybe OOT at best? She for the most part is pretty different, and that's ignoring her Elderly and Oracle forms.

Celica I'm unsure of. For the most part, people have to remember that isn't theme, it's bodyshape that must be identical. You can have enough slight differences, like Dixie not using her hair instead, as it's just an object that flies around and has no hitboxes, as long as Diddy doesn't use his Tail(which is true in this game). But the frame needs to be exact. Smaller and Bigger don't matter, and they can probably somewhat fix it up in some cases. Like Black Knight can fit the Ike mold well, but depending upon how the armor works, it might not be feasible. To note, it's not cause of some bodyshape, which isn't an issue, it's that the armor itself would not be part of the hitbox an has to move around as a floating model over and over without glitches. Meta Ridley's costume actually wasn't in the demo due to having problems keeping it intact/not moving out of place. That means it takes a lot of work to get it working right first and foremost. I have a feeling this is why Black Knight is an AT and not playable. Chrom on the other hand didn't suffer from this.

 

[Jomosensual]

Echo Fighters as DLC

Chance: 20 - I don't see this happening. I think if we do get it it'll be one echo and that would be all. If I had to take a guess at who it could be I would say someone like a character from 3 houses as an extra promotional boost or something

Want: 90 - I would really love this because I always get excited over new characters, even for the ones I don't even want that badly. I wouldn't be upset if it didn't happen though. For all that we got anything extra that we don't already know about is just gravy at this point.

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I don't think Zeraora, Celica, and Impa fit the characters you listed. I think those are better off as unique.

Oh, I'm not going to pretend most of those options wouldn't be better as unique.

I think the main part about echoes is that it isn't "echo or unique," it's a choice between "echo with 70% fitting moveset" and "not playable," I'd go for the playable version. I know that leads to issues - look how long it took Ganondorf to be awesome (and even still he may be missing something) - but if we're not getting another Smash for 7+ years, many of those characters may be forgotten by then.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Elma pre-Concept: Echo Fighters as DLC

Arle Nadja x380
Rhythm Girl x340
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x320
Hollow Knight x287
Nero Claudius (Fate) x265
Reimu Hakurei x255
Mach Rider x255

Over 200

Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x254
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x250
Reaper (Overwatch) x241
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x231
Concept: More DLC x230

200 - 151

Concept: SNK rep x180
Sephiroth x170


150 - 101

Professor Hector x137
Dark Matter x135
Kat & Ana x130
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x130
Ravio x130
Dante x125
Bonkers (Kirby) x125
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x125
Andy (Advance Wars) x120
Ryota Hayami x120
Shy Guy x120
Amy Rose x115
Concept: World of Light expansion x115
Q*Bert x112
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x110
Brash the Bear x110
Sly Cooper x110
Concept: Boss Rush x110
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x110
Magikarp x109
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51


Tracer x100
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x100
Monster Hunter x100
Poochy x100
Cranky Kong x100
Vaati x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Concept: Style Savvy rep x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Hat Kid x75
9-Volt x69
Spyro x52

50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25


Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Adeleine (Kirby) x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Mach Rider rides back into the top 7, passing Grovyle.

That’s all the news for today.

I’d like to shout out 3DSNinja for the noms that helped Mach Rider get in there (along with Good Guy Giygas who I noticed gave their noms today). Thanks guys! You rock.

Verde Coeden Scalesworth Troykv you guys didn’t have 10 noms, so I just gave 5 to the characters you nominated (Brian and Reimu if I’m not mistaken).

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Elma pre-Concept: Echo Fighters as DLC

Arle Nadja x380
Rhythm Girl x340
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x320
Hollow Knight x287
Nero Claudius (Fate) x265
Reimu Hakurei x255
Mach Rider x255

Over 200

Grovyle (Pokémon Mystery Dungeon) x254
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x250
Reaper (Overwatch) x241
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x231
Concept: More DLC x230

200 - 151

Concept: SNK rep x180
Sephiroth x170


150 - 101

Professor Hector x137
Dark Matter x135
Kat & Ana x130
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x130
Ravio x130
Dante x125
Bonkers (Kirby) x125
Ezio Auditore da Firenze x125
Andy (Advance Wars) x120
Ryota Hayami x120
Shy Guy x120
Amy Rose x115
Concept: World of Light expansion x115
Q*Bert x112
Arthas Menethil (Warcraft) x110
Brash the Bear x110
Sly Cooper x110
Concept: Boss Rush x110
Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x110
Magikarp x109
Impa x101
Porky Minch x101

100 - 51


Tracer x100
Concept: 100 characters (counting Echo Fighters and Miis/Pokémon Trainer as 3) x100
Monster Hunter x100
Poochy x100
Cranky Kong x100
Vaati x100
Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Undertale rep x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Concept: Style Savvy rep x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Hat Kid x75
9-Volt x69
Spyro x52

50 - 25

Creeper x47
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25


Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Kamek x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Brian (Quest 64) x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Adeleine (Kirby) x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Mach Rider rides back into the top 7, passing Grovyle.

That’s all the news for today.

I’d like to shout out 3DSNinja for the noms that helped Mach Rider get in there (along with Good Guy Giygas who I noticed gave their noms today). Thanks guys! You rock.

Verde Coeden Scalesworth Troykv you guys didn’t have 10 noms, so I just gave 5 to the characters you nominated (Brian and Reimu if I’m not mistaken).

Ah, so the noms were only for people who accidentally replied with the wrong character of the day, correct? That makes sense. Thank you and apologies for the misunderstanding. I'm totally new to this topic. XD

 

[Sid-cada]

Echo DLC

Chance - 0% - I think this verges a bit too close to not being able to sell well enough to work. It would require too much work to make it cheep, yet not quite enough to sell like hotcakes unless it was really special. While I can see an echo fighter be part of a package with something else, I think a solo Echo Fighter, which is what I think we are rating, isn't going to be enough by itself to justify getting in.

Want - 50% - None of the characters I want have a shot as being an Echo, I think. I probably won't spend a cent on them, but as they are low effort content that makes people happy I don't feel like I have any right to complain.


Nominations

Dark Matte X5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Chance: 45%

-They are far easier characters to develop for.
-We've also free DLC for other Nintendo games like Splatoon.
-There's 30 placeholder slots and 6 are used up. I can't imagine only a few of them being used. So maybe some echoes would fill up some spaces.

Want: 100%

-Oh yes for sure.
-Especially if they're Hilda and Funk Kong.

Demilles Prediction: 0.44%

Nominate DLC Story Expansion x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Okay, but I really hope that Arle can break 400 nominations before her day. She's so close, and it's meaningless yes, but it's just something dumb for me to think about.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Okay, but I really hope that Arle can break 400 nominations before her day. She's so close, and it's meaningless yes, but it's just something dumb for me to think about.

Would help out with noms but I got my own thing to deal with. Like seeing records broken.

 

[3DSNinja]

shadow
Chance:25%: I mean, l t does make sense. But when does Nintendo do the logical thing. could happen tho.
Want;:100%: Give me Shadow as a Sonic echo Ken style and Funky and neck Impa for sheik. Please nintendo, so this.
Nominations:
Mach Rider x5

 

[PK-remling Fire]

Echo Fighter DLC:

Chance: 30%
Considering how easy it is to produce echoes relative to other characters, it definitely is possible. The only issue is that Nintendo might not find it cost-effective.

Want: 100%
Getting some echoes outside of the fighters pass would be awesome. Dry Bowser, Shadow, and Dixie are some fan favorites that come to mind.

Noms: No fan favorite/highly requested character x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Echo fighters as DLC
Chance: 60%
This is assuming that any new echo fighter counts, regardless of how, so long as it's post-launch content. And I think it's more likely than not, be it as a random freebie thrown in some time, paid singular extras, or coming alongside a newcomer in the fighter pass a la Simon/Richter.

Want: 55%
It really depends on who it would be. More options is cool with me.