Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RealPokeFan11]

TCT~Phantom When are we starting the new day?

Edit: Nevermind. (We literally posted at the EXACT same time)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Leon

35% Chance

Jill
10% Chanxe

I feel another Capcom character is coming for this game. Resident Evil in my opinion has a strong claim for this spot. Resident Evil is a huge franchise, being a cornerstone in terms Horror and action. It is something that would make sense for smash.

And yet I think we will get a Monster Hunter character. I feel this way due to MH being in the character music files instead of misc. I think that MH getting in makes a ton of sense in terms of resources. They already can work with the ancestral steppe and make a new stage. Capcom is on board and Japan loves monster hunter.

So essentially I think that hurts it’s chances for RE. Leon would be the Rep of choice. The 2 remake and 4 being a GameCube classic make him the best choice. Jill is next in line due to being iconic and the inevitable nemesis remake. Chris would be third but I did not want to do three.

Abstain Want.

Sephiroth x 5

Day over, rate Concept: Alt Costumes as DLC and predict Barbara the Bat (Daigasso, was an AT in brawl).

 

[Guynamednelson]

Alt costumes:
Chance:
10%. It seems they want fighters to all have only 8 costumes this time, with no exceptions like all the Wireframe Macs in 4.

Want:
50%. I want to see Outset Link, but I'd rather these resources be spent on echoes.

 

[shocktarts17]

Alt Costumes as DLC
Chance: 1%
I just don't see them putting any effort into this. If they cared more about alt costumes more characters would have them in the base game.

Want: 15%
I guess it would be cool, but I wouldn't really be happy about having to pay for it. Would probably depend how they sold it (bundle vs individual).

Prediction: Barbara the bat 5%

Nomination: Ravio x5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Alt Costumes:

Chance - 2%

I just don't see it happening, they seem set in stone with the 8 for 8-player even going to lengths to remove extras like Little Mac's. Don't see them adding more at all.

Want - 100%

Give me back Fire Mario and Black Yoshi for crying out loud! I also want Wedding Bowser and Peach. Y'know what be like any Japanese gacha game and give me beach outfits and c'mon Nintendo you know that would sell!

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Hey screaming 9 year olds! Get your free V-Bucks now, so you can buy your stupid skins today! All you have to do is go to a fake website that totally isn't a scam or a virus! Stealing Mommy's credit card is not required!
Chance: 10%
Want (free/unlockable/bundled with fighters pass): 75%
Want (paid DLC) 0%

Nobody knows what will happen after the Fighters pass DLC. Will we continue to get more characters? Will we get more Mii Costumes? One thing I'm sure on is that we're not gonna have to pay for alternate skin colors. It would be the biggest waste of money on the planet, and Mommy's credit card will be crying itself to sleep after her kid blows it all on alternate color palettes. This is Smash Bros, not Fortnite. At least Fortnite's skins are worth the money. Your character is so small on the battlefield, that the color palette will make a super small difference compared to Fortnite's skins being displayed to the user the entire game. If they were added to the game as an unlockable reward however, I'm totally cool with that. I'm also okay with alt skins being included with some of the fighters pass packs, since it comes with a much bigger reward: a new character to play as.

(I just realized that if the schedule moves accordingly, Xurkitree's day will land on Christmas. Very fitting, don't you think?)

Barbara the Bat: 10.37%

Reaper x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Smash Fortress 2 Hats

Chance: 20%
I'm not very hopeful about this happening, due to the ""leak"" with mii fighter costumes being .75 on the Nintendo website, and mentioning nothing about costumes. That said, they could just be hiding it from us and 100% plan to do it. It would be an enormous moneymaker if they sold them, and there's honestly no real reason not to. I just think it won't happen because of Nintendo being kind of stupid sometimes. Though, the character IDs in the code could possibly be filled up by these pretty quickly.

Want: 99999999% 100%
Aside from actual characters, this and echo fighter DLC are my most wanted for Smash. Alt costumes are the most important thing in Smash if you ask me. When was the last time you saw somebody using the default color of their main every single time they played them? Alt colors are customization, personalization, and in some cases can become your calling card. When you see that Purple Diddy Kong, chances are you're gonna start thinking of ZeRo. Even if these alt costumes were just more colors instead of cooler stuff like entirely different outfits, it'd still be great. Gimme.

Rhythm Girl x5

 

[RileyXY1]

Alt Costumes as DLC

Chance: 0%
I don't really think that this is going to happen. They appear to want every character to have 8 alts, to the point where Little Mac now only has 8 alts like the rest of the characters.

Want: 0%
I don't really care for this. I don't think that paying for alt skins would be a good idea.

Nominate: Amaterasu x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Playing Dress Up with DLC

Chance: 0%. If I remember correctly, DLC has already been confirmed as just Mii Costumes and the Fighters Pass. Thus, we're not getting these.

Want: 30%. Depends on a few factors.
* Are they free or paid?
* How many of them are there?
* Are they references to the character's series, or are they unique costumes dedicated to Smash Bros.?

Arle Nadja x 5. Barbara's looking at a 1.69% chance, basically being Chibi-Robo #5.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Free Money for Nintendo

Chance: 10%
Want: 100%

Mii costumes are 100% happening, that's not even a question. Seriously, Sm4sh made a lot of them, and you're going to say that Ultimate won't? Yeah, right. Leak or not, this is a lock.

Now costumes for the others...that's not as easily guaranteed. It'd be easy enough to out them in - previous Smash games had character with more costumes than others, and the new costume selector does give everything an easy selection process, autoorganizes them to fit the window, and inexplicably gives them all generic names. It's almost like it's set up to do so.

However, this is Nintendo we're talking about, and they're not always known for doing the obvious things that'll make them money.

This would be a great addition, and if it were just cheap cosmetic DLC, could make bank. Yeah, there are people who dislike the concept of cosmetic DLC, but there are loads of people who will eat all of that up. I would love to see them happen.

And I've got loads I'd like to see. Links below

Spoiler: Costume Possiblities

: White Dress from Bayo 2
: Wedding outfit
: Twilight Princess, Hyrule Warriors, BotW Desert Voe set
: Return of the grey/black costume from Brawl
: Return of the Blue and White outfits from Sm4sh
: 3DS Pinafore dress, Kimono
: Return of the green headband from Melee
: Kaptain coat, Krusha onesie
: Twilight Princess, Ocarina of Time, TP Magic Armor, Proper Fierce Deity, TP Zora Armor, TP Sumo pants, BotW Soldier set (I prefer with without the helm)
: Proper shiny
: Mr. L, NES Golf outfit
: Return of Fire Mario, Jumpman, and Wario from Brawl, Some of the Odyssey outfits like the Gangster suit or the Football gear
: Proper Shiny, Armored, Shadow Mewtwo
: Shadow Queen
: Classic, Strikers
: Team Rocket Grunt

: Squirtle Squad​

: Something like the PM black Ivy​

: Proper Shiny​

: Return of the Black color from E3
: Bearded Ryu, Classic Ryu, Evil Ryu
: Banana Hair (lol)
: BotW Sheikah NPCs, Yiga clan, Ocarina of Time, Twilight Princess, Hyrule Warriors
: Chronicles, Gabriel Belmont
: Dracula x Chronicles
: Naked Snake, Iriquois Pliskin
: Outset Island, Engineer Outfit
: Return of the black color from Sm4sh, Boshi
: Purple tunic, Kafei
: Twilight Princess, BotW Royal Gown, BotW Prayer dress, Ocarina of Time, LttP Casual dress, Hyrule Warriors, Hilda
: Young Samus

Nom: More DLC x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Abstain

Won’t happen. Wouldn’t pay for it if it did, and if it were to be alternate characters like Alph I would outright hate it, just make ****ing Echoes.

Nom Mach RiderX5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wooo double posting. The privileges you get when you’ve got thread duties, they’re nice.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Leon S. Kennedy/Jill Valentine pre-Concept: Alternate Costumes as DLC

Over 200

Arle Nadja x315
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x260
Rhythm Girl x250
Nero Claudius (Fate) x235

200 - 151

Grovyle x185
Mach Rider x175
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x171
Concept: More DLC x170
Reaper (Overwatch) x170
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x170
Hollow Knight x167
Reimu Hakurei x155

150 - 101

Kat & Ana x125
Professor Hector x119
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x110
Impa x101

100 - 51

Andy (Advance Wars) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Sephiroth x85
Concept: SNK rep x85
Ravio x80
Concept: Boss Rush x75
Porky Minch x66
Dark Matter x60
9-Volt x59

50 - 25

Frisk x40
Concept: Style Savvy rep x40
Spyro x37
Creeper x37
Papyrus x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x26
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Kamek x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Amaterasu x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Earthworm Jim x5
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Hat Kid x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Reimu Hakurei flies past 150 noms.

Today’s newcomer is Hat Kid, with 5 noms.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Alternate Costume DLC

Chance: 5%

-DLC has only been confirmed to be the Fighter's Pass(Character, Stage, and Music) and Mii Costumes.
-Nintendo is lazy when it comes to alternate costumes in Smash. Theyll do some aternate Costume switch for some characters but not everyone.

Want: 80%

-It would be cool and an easy money kaer.
-As long long as it would have Pig Mask Commander Lucas, Pajamas Ness and Toon Link, and Assault outfits for the Star Fox crew.

Barbara Prediction: 1.13%

Nominate All DLC are 3rd Party x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Concept: Fire Mario-alt was removed so it could be DLC

Chance: 1% - It didn't happen last game, and I don't see it happening this game. There's always a small chance, and I can see them doing so, but since there's not any major demand for it, I don't see Nintendo caring about it.

Want: 100% - It would be cool to have some more alt-costumes/colors. I'd like Fire Mario to be brought back, for Luigi to get a Mr. L costume, Pajamas Ness, Masked Man or Pigmask Lucas, Kantonian Raichu colors for Pikachu, Majora's Mask Young Link, and more.

Nominations:

Creeper x3
Papyrus x2

 

[MacDaddyNook]

DLC Alternate Costumes

Chance: 0%
With Miis as the customizable fighter, I could see DLC costumes come back since that's part of their whole schtick. However, I'm assuming this round is meant for non-Mii costumes, which I don't see happening. Judging by how costumes and pallettes were handled in the base game, in which pallettes were cut to make room for new costumes and, in some cases, characters having their total pallettes reduced, it's highly unlikely that anyone will get more than 8 options. If they were considering DLC costumes, Mario's wedding and/or builder costumes would be saved for this and he wouldn't have lost his more iconic Fire pallete.

Want: 1%

It's not worth the time and resources to create nor the customer's money to pay for it. I do give one percent for the chance to fix Ganondorf back to his bearded self.

 

[Nemuresu]

Alternate costumes:
Chance: 0%-In devs' heads: "why bother making nice texture changes to characters when we can just make Mii pieces?". That's pretty much a doom for that to happen.
Want: 20%-I'm more willing to pay for some of those if they're nice (say Wedding Bowser, Kojima Simon and Richter, Ash hat Pikachu, and so on), but not a big priority other than being better than Mii Costumes.
Nominations: All-guests passx5

Also, Arle Nadja is in the schedule post. Is it just a mistake or is it intentional?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Alternate costumes:
Chance: 0%-In devs' heads: "why bother making nice texture changes to characters when we can just make Mii pieces?". That's pretty much a doom for that to happen.
Want: 20%-I'm more willing to pay for some of those if they're nice (say Wedding Bowser, Kojima Simon and Richter, Ash hat Pikachu, and so on), but not a big priority other than being better than Mii Costumes.
Nominations: All-guests passx5

Also, Arle Nadja is in the schedule post. Is it just a mistake or is it intentional?

My memory is hazy but I believe I put her there preemptively since it is clear she is the first one people will be rating.

 

[Nemuresu]

My memory is hazy but I believe I put her there preemptively since it is clear she is the first one people will be rating.

So, should people stop nominating her because of that, or should they keep going? Just curious about it.

 

[Ridrool64]

At this point, I'm the only one nominating her, since everybody else has other interests.

I think there is a non-0% chance that one of the other concepts could catch up to her.

 

[Nemuresu]

At this point, I'm the only one nominating her, since everybody else has other interests.

I think there is a non-0% chance that one of the other concepts could catch up to her.

I mean, she still has more nominations than everything else. Another character or concept catching up shouldn't be a concern. But let's just let TCT~Phantom decide on that.

 

[Sid-cada]

Costume DLC

Chance - 0% - I think this feels like a bit too much like a cash grab for Sakurai's tastes. Sakurai tends to be very pro-consumer, and selling pallet swaps seems a bit out of character to me.

Want - 50% - I don't buy stuff like this. Admittedly I stay with a character's base colors most of the time, only really swapping between the NES and Famicom colors for ROB. I don't care much either way.


Preditciton

Barbra the Bat - 1.24% - Not looking optimistic...


Nominations

Dark Matter X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Personally, I think Arle Nadja should stay on the noms list. At the rate that it’s going, All DLC is third party could reasonably catch up, so I’d rather not jump the gun.

 

[Sari]

Character alternate costume DLC

Chance: 2%
With characters and stages being the main focus of DLC, I really don't see this happening. If Sakurai intended to release DLC costumes down the line I don't think he would've gone out of his way to add Mario's builder/wedding outfits or Ike's Path of Radiance outfit in the base game. The closest thing we will get to this will be Mii costumes.

Want: 40%
Not at the top of my priorities as I'd much prefer resources be put into making echos, but I'd be ok with this if it were to actually happen. Some specific costumes I'd like to see would be Wario's suit + hat from WarioWare DIY, Isabelle's green dress from that one Japanese New 3DS commercial, and Easter Chrom/Lucina from FE Heroes.

Barbara the Bat chance prediction: 3.02%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

 

[Jomosensual]

DLC Alts

Chance: 10 - Don't think so. They've made an effort to get everyone down to 8 and Mii costumes are a thing, which makes this way less likely

Want: 30 - Depends on if they would be free to download or not. Can't say I'm interested in paying for alt costumes, but if they're free or really low price I'd get it.

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Concept: Bring In Boshi
Chance: 10%.
I don't really see it happening. If they are free then definetitly.
Want: 100%: Give me Fire Mario and Boshi and Wedding Bowser/Peach and Kaptain K. Rool & Knuckles. Pls Nintendo, do this.
Nominations: Hollow Knight x5.

 

[Lasatar]

Trevor Belmont's only chance to be in Smash at this rate:

Chance: 0%. Yeah, no, that isn't happening. The only DLC costumes will be for the Miis.

Want: 60%. I quite like the idea of new alt costumes. Bring back Fire Mario and possibly even add some other Mario powerup skins. Add all the other Belmonts as skins for Simon and Richter. Add Louie, Charlie, Brittany, and even the President as skins for Olimar. There's a lot of potential here.

Abstain on Barbara predictions.

Nominations: Reimu x5

 

[Troykv]

Concept Alt Costume as DLC

Chance: 10%

A Wild Concept to say the least; there isn't anything in particular against this idea, but also there isn't nothing it's favour... so it's pretty much a new concept for Smash DLC that we may or may not see... Mii Customes are a given though (givemesomethingMicaiahrelatedacharacteroratleastadecentmiicustome).

Want: 50%

Depends a lot it how it's implement; but I'm otherwise quite nice with the idea.

_____________________

Predictions:

Barbara The Cat: 3.4%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

DLC alt costumes
Chance: 5%
There wasn't ever that much of a focus on these and I don't see that changing. This would also mess with the eight palletes per character thing we've got going on, which I feel they don't want to deal with.

Want: 50%
Would be cool but I can live without them. Most of the characters I play probably don't have many potential costumes anyway.

Barbara: 1.27%
Hollow Knight x5

 

[Door Key Pig]

Damn, so that's a no-go on getting different Zeldas/Links playable?? Maybe unless they were echos or some special, unique case.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Abstaining. Considering that the possible selection of costumes is larger than their resource budget, and that people might start crying foul if their mains have less costume options than others, I don't see this as something that can be solidly backed from the speculation side of things.

Nominations
Hat Kid x5

 

[PeridotGX]

double abstain.

Noms: Grovyle x5

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining again, whoops.
Barbara prediction: 1%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Abstaining

This abstain is more than the previous ones since I honestly do not know. I mean a color set I can see but idk.

Sephiroth x 5

Today we have Barbara the Bat from Daigasso. I put her in the schedule per a request I believe, I forget who made it though. She is a spirit and was an assist in brawl, so there’s that...

Tomorrow we have the prince from Katamari. Predict how the prince will fare once he rolls in.

 

[Kotor]

Alt Costume DLC

Chance: Abstain
Want: 100%

Hard to say if alt costumes were added in, how much effort would Nintendo go through. Simple palette swaps, or full fledged costumes. There are a couple of characters that I could see get the latter like Mario's outfits from Odyssey, any version of Link, Samus in another suit, any FE characters in their promoted classes or seasonal outfits from Heroes, the Inklings in another set of outfits or their Splatoon 2 versions, etc. Duck Hunt could get away with palette swaps by having them resemble other breeds of dogs. I'd like to see another set of 8 alts for each character, but it seems like a low priority at this moment for Nintendo to do. RIP Fire Mario.

Boss Rush x5

 

[Sari]

Barbara the Bat

Chance: 3%
Barbara is virtually unknown overseas as her games are only available in Japan, with the exception of one title being released in Europe. She has a ton of competition with more requested characters and would most likely be overshadowed by a possible Rhythm Heaven rep (Nintendo SPD's more popular Rhythm-based series). I also believe that being a spirit hurts a fighters chances by a tiny bit which is bad for Barbara since her chances weren't that great to begin with. Gets a tiny boost in chance percent for being an AT in Brawl and having multiple cameos in games such as Mario Maker.

Want: Abstain
Never played her games so I won't comment.

The Prince (Katamari) chance prediction: 5.44%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

 

[RileyXY1]

Barbara the Bat

Chance: 4%
Barbara's games have so far been only released in Japan, with the exception of one title that released in Europe. The fact that she is almost unheard of overseas hurts her chances.

Want: 0%
I am not that interested in her. I have never played her games, although a fighter from a rhythm-based series could be interesting.

Nominate: Kat & Ana x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Rouge's Rocker Cousin

Chance: 0.01%. I think her only American appearances ever were in Brawl and Smash Ultimate. That alone is pretty much a death knell to her ever being playable, and it doesn't help that she's not a money maker - ergo, not DLC material in Nintendo's eyes.

Want: No experience with her game yet again. You know this means I now must abstain.

Arle Nadja x 5, Katamari's Prince OAC will likely get around a 15.25% chance.

 

[Koopaul]

The Great Barbara

I've been waiting forever to do this. I will do the Chance and Want in reverse since I have more to say about one over the other. With that said.

Who is Barbara and why is she so "Great"? Barbara is the main character of the Jam with the Band games (also known as Daigasso Band Bros. in Japan). Barbara is the greedy, pompous, egotistical, and sadistic leader of the band and head of the company "GB Music" (the GB stands for Great Barbara) which has a series of music stores and a music agency to boot. That's not all! Barbara also owns a magic store in the game Master of Illusion which did come out in the USA. So technically she has had a game in the states. She's always in pursuit of new buisniness opportunities, so her and Wario have something in common. Barbara has a ton of personality for a Nintendo character. For people who like Pokemon, she's very much like Jessie from Team Rocket. She bosses her underlings around and has a very short temper. Because of her personality, her style, and the fact that she specializes in instruments, she'd make an incredibly fun and unique new fighter like none other!

And it's not like Nintendo doesn't care about her either. She's constantly appearing in crossovers and cross-promotional materials. Like that time whjen her and Ashley from WarioWare promoted each others series. Or that time when she appeared in Super Mario Maker. And of course, that time she took over the Nintendo Badge Arcade. She still runs her very own Twitter account too!

So in conclusion, Nintendo likes her enough to put her in tons of things, she has the personality, a great style, and a unique moveset potential. She has so much going for her, so it's no wonder I want her so much!

Want: 100%

Now for me to explain why none of that matters... It's quite clear to me that for DLC, it's more than likely they will be highly popular 3rd Party characters. One's that will potentially be used to promote their games coming to the Switch. I do not know that for certain, but that's what it seems like. Even if there was a Nintendo character thrown in there, it would be more than likely to promote a brand new Nintendo series for the Switch as well.

I'd say Barbara's only chance is if Nintendo decides to make a new Jam with the Band for the Switch (highly likely based on what Barbara has said on Twitter), and if Nintendo was planning for a worldwide release of this game and wanted to use Smash as a way to promote the game (highly UNlikely based on reality). Stranger things have happened but... her chances are practically nonexistent.

Chance: 0.5%

Despite all this, Barbara is a great character and I encourage you all to look into her. Here is my thread on her if you like. Thanks for listening.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Rule 34 Fan Material
Chance: 10%
Want: Abstaining

This will yet again be a short rating, as I don't have much to say about her. She was an assist trophy in Brawl, and is apparently a spirit now according to TCT~Phantom . (I just haven't found her on the spirit board yet.) She is mostly Japan exclusive with one game releasing in Europe. She is however still somewhat popular. She made a cameo appearance in Super Mario Maker as a costume, and once collaborated with WarioWare to promote each other's games. The fact that she's so foreign in the west however is the reason why she only has a 10% chance. I also don't care for her very much so I'm abstaining for want.

The Prince from Clash Ro- wait... Katamari! 4.83%

Reaper x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Not Rouge
Chance: 0.01%
Anything's possible but Barbara clearly doesn't fall under the type of characters they are aiming for with DLC. She's too obscure for the casual market and not at all popular with the hardcore side of the community. Therefore she has very little potential to sell well as a DLC character. Oh and she was cut as an Assist Trophy from Brawl to Sm4sh, which not as many people batted on as the removal of Isaac.

Want: 0%
I don't have any experience with her so when it comes to a character from a rhythm game I'd take a RH any day over her. Also, I just find her desing very unappealing personally. Kinda reminds me of that one disturbing Steve model I'm sorry.

Prince: 2.36%
Hollow Knight x5