Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[3DSNinja]

Abstaining on Female Big the Cat.
Nominations:
Hollow Knight x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Abstain. I only know Barbara the Bat as an AT/Trophy in Smash.

Nominations:

Creeper x2
Papyrus x2
Ninten x1

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain

Noms:
Gen 8 pokemon x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So a housekeeping update.

Expect a scores update around the beginning of January. This will likely clean up the last of the pre release stuff and most of our current stuff. The delay on this update is due to finals, holidays, and whatnot.

Front page will be done during this update as well. Not as big of a deal but it will be completed.

I’m a bit displeased by the higher numbers of abstantions as of late. Now I would like to change that somehow, but I am trying to figure out a fair way. My best idea so far is bumping up actual posts to 10 noms, and abstaintions only get 5. That way it rewards scores but does not completely penalize an abstention. However, I do not want to implement such a policy right away, I want feedback.

I am assuming our schedule will have a joker satisfaction once we see him in action, so I will have that in play whenever, most likely after the jan/March direct.

I wish I implemented this sooner, but I would love someone who can post music each day for characters. I feel music will give good feels for the franchise and it is something that would be fun. I considered doing it myself but I feel I would be biased in selection.

Finally, I would like to do some rerates after a while, perhaps a fixed schedule after our second pass member is known. In this fixed schedule, I will include ATs and other misc stuff to keep it interesting.

 

[Ridrool64]

I call dibs on the Arle song, unless you mean "if this character got in, what songs should they have?" Which is more of a problem for already repped series since they're mostly good, and newcomer series have infinite potential in terms of songs.

I think you should be allowed to abstain on want, but having a bonus to actually giving a chance score does sound like a good compromise. Some of us haven't played a whole lot of games, and thus we don't have a fair outlook of a character.

In regards to rerates, the big winners are Banjo, Steve, and Crash, while Bandana Dee (and, also, Steve, but not as much as he'd gained) had an inflated score because we made a lot of assumptions. Everybody else would have around the same score, but I see Crash in particular rocketing up in terms of likelihood.

 

[Nemuresu]

So a housekeeping update.

Expect a scores update around the beginning of January. This will likely clean up the last of the pre release stuff and most of our current stuff. The delay on this update is due to finals, holidays, and whatnot.

Not sure if fits this topic, but is there any chance we may get another Top 10 pics like in pre-release? If my memory doesn't fail, those never got to be updated by the time Ridley was announced. I think they'd be good to illustrate what people here think is gonna happen, and what they desire to see.

I’m a bit displeased by the higher numbers of abstantions as of late. Now I would like to change that somehow, but I am trying to figure out a fair way. My best idea so far is bumping up actual posts to 10 noms, and abstaintions only get 5. That way it rewards scores but does not completely penalize an abstention. However, I do not want to implement such a policy right away, I want feedback.

IMHO, instead of augmenting the amount of nominations in general, I say reduce the one for those who abstain. As in, instead of 10 noms for someone who doesn't abstain and 5 for who does, let's make it: 5 noms for those who don't, and 3 for those who do. That should balance things out.

I wish I implemented this sooner, but I would love someone who can post music each day for characters. I feel music will give good feels for the franchise and it is something that would be fun. I considered doing it myself but I feel I would be biased in selection.

How would this work exactly? Will the one in charge (if it gets to happen) just post a YT video with a song or something?

 

[3DSNinja]

Nah, giving more to actual posts is better because it is rewarding people for knowing rather then hurting them for not.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I have no opinion on any of TCT’s suggestions. Though I fear discussing a second fixed schedule before even finishing the first one may be premature.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Alternate Costumes as DLC pre-Barbara the Bat

Over 200

Arle Nadja x320
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x265
Rhythm Girl x260
Nero Claudius (Fate) x235

200 - 151

Grovyle x190
Mach Rider x180
Hollow Knight x177
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x176
Concept: More DLC x175
Reaper (Overwatch) x175
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x175
Reimu Hakurei x165

150 - 101

Kat & Ana x125
Professor Hector x119
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x110
Impa x101

100 - 51

Andy (Advance Wars) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Sephiroth x90
Concept: SNK rep x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Ravio x85
Concept: Boss Rush x80
Porky Minch x66
Dark Matter x65
9-Volt x59

50 - 25

Frisk x40
Concept: Style Savvy rep x40
Creeper x40
Spyro x37
Papyrus x37
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x26
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Kamek x10
Amaterasu x10
Hat Kid x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Earthworm Jim x5
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Absolutely nothing of note happened today so I guess I’ll rate Barbara.

Chance: 1%
Even despite the fact that she’s a Spirit and used to be an AT (and a Mii Costume?), she’s just not the kind of character that sells DLC. Though she’s not as obscure as you would think, and she’s still getting games. I wouldn’t expect to see her before both Style Savvy and Rhythm Heaven get characters though.

Want: 100%
I just love her character tbh. At least bring her AT back. Or give her a salesman role in WoL.

Noms: Mach RiderX5

 

[Flyboy]

Barbara the Bat

Chance: 5%
I just don't see it. I'm of the opinion that Spirits deconfirm for at least the first wave of DLC, and when you consider her AT is also MIA I feel like she's just kind of been written out of the series for the time being. She's not impossible at all - several games and appearances, including Mario Maker (and I'd be a hypocrite as an Ayumi Tachibana supporter not to want to cling to that) and she's definitely still a popular character for NoJ - but I do see her as unlikely especially since the majority of her appearances aren't internationally-known.

Want: 20%
I am always going to support characters from games not traditionally associated with fighting. Barbara also seems like a very fun character (Loved the Jesse comparison) and I'm an absolute sucker for rhythm. It would've been nice to see her as an NPC in World of Light. However, when it comes to non-traditional fighters, there are others I'd like to see first, not just in other genres but even in the rhythm genre as I'm a bigger fan of Rhythm Heaven.

I do hope there's a Switch game in the works and with Nintendo's propensity for actually releasing games in America I hope we see it come here. It could raise her stock and that sounds fine to me.

Nominations: Style Savvy Rep x5

As for TCT's suggestions, I like the nominations idea. This thread is beyond frustrating sometimes as I've expressed in the past when you have someone make a passionate argument for or about a character only for the next post to be "Who? Abstain. Random character x5". People don't even bother doing basic research when said basic research could open their eyes to a character they've never even considered before. Removing discussion and debate from this thread makes this thread less fun for everyone and encouraging it and incentivizing it could lead to a healthier and way more enjoyable environment overall. That's my opinion on the matter at least.

 

[PeridotGX]

So a housekeeping update.

Expect a scores update around the beginning of January. This will likely clean up the last of the pre release stuff and most of our current stuff. The delay on this update is due to finals, holidays, and whatnot.

Front page will be done during this update as well. Not as big of a deal but it will be completed.

I’m a bit displeased by the higher numbers of abstantions as of late. Now I would like to change that somehow, but I am trying to figure out a fair way. My best idea so far is bumping up actual posts to 10 noms, and abstaintions only get 5. That way it rewards scores but does not completely penalize an abstention. However, I do not want to implement such a policy right away, I want feedback.

I am assuming our schedule will have a joker satisfaction once we see him in action, so I will have that in play whenever, most likely after the jan/March direct.

I wish I implemented this sooner, but I would love someone who can post music each day for characters. I feel music will give good feels for the franchise and it is something that would be fun. I considered doing it myself but I feel I would be biased in selection.

Finally, I would like to do some rerates after a while, perhaps a fixed schedule after our second pass member is known. In this fixed schedule, I will include ATs and other misc stuff to keep it interesting.

If you do the abstain thing, could you make it for chance only? Often there's just a character I don't care in the slightest about, and I don't want to mess with the total want rating by giving a zero

 

[Sid-cada]

Barbra the Bat

Chance - 0.5% - Too much of an international unknown to really be considered. She was in a few games that seemed to fail to make a splash, despite doing things like hosting that Magician's Kit game. The fact that the games were mostly unlocalized is something to consider. I don't think many would buy her, so I think she's out of the question.

Want - 40% - I'd much prefer Rhythm Heaven to get a character over her. I think they would offer more due to the minigames instead of generic music stuff.

Nominations

Dark Matter X5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Barbara The Bat

Chance: 0.01%.

-Yeah, this another character suffering from Chibi-Robo(dead series now) and Mike Jones(very obscure to the public) syndrome.
-Basically not a very appealing DLC character at all.

Want: 0%

-At this point I'd prefer 3rd party characters now.
-There really isn't any Nintendo character that would be hype IMO, only someone Funky as an echo would do.

Katamari Prediction: 2.44%

Nominate all DLC is 3rd party.

 

[PsychoJosh]

Abstain.
Nominating Earthworm Jim x5

 

[Sari]

I’m a bit displeased by the higher numbers of abstantions as of late. Now I would like to change that somehow, but I am trying to figure out a fair way. My best idea so far is bumping up actual posts to 10 noms, and abstaintions only get 5. That way it rewards scores but does not completely penalize an abstention. However, I do not want to implement such a policy right away, I want feedback.

If someone at least gives a decent explanation as to why they are abstaining then I think they should still get the 10 noms. Otherwise people may start dishing out unnecessary 0 ratings if they are forced to give a percent score.

I wish I implemented this sooner, but I would love someone who can post music each day for characters. I feel music will give good feels for the franchise and it is something that would be fun. I considered doing it myself but I feel I would be biased in selection.

I think the video that gets posted should be anything relating to the character of the day whether it be a gameplay video, cutscene, game intro, song, etc. If we're limited to just songs then certain series may not fare well even if all of the other aspects of their games are amazing.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Not sure if fits this topic, but is there any chance we may get another Top 10 pics like in pre-release? If my memory doesn't fail, those never got to be updated by the time Ridley was announced. I think they'd be good to illustrate what people here think is gonna happen, and what they desire to see.


IMHO, instead of augmenting the amount of nominations in general, I say reduce the one for those who abstain. As in, instead of 10 noms for someone who doesn't abstain and 5 for who does, let's make it: 5 noms for those who don't, and 3 for those who do. That should balance things out.


How would this work exactly? Will the one in charge (if it gets to happen) just post a YT video with a song or something?

1. Yes, failure to update the top ten was partially due to image uploads being bad. I plan on getting one when the ratings are in.

2. I want to incentivize people rather than punish but I’ll consider it.

3. It would be like 4-6 videos.

 

[SPEN18]

Barbara the Bat

Chance: 0%
It's not actually zero, but I'm rounding down because it's less than 0.5%. But yeah, not a lot going for her. Pretty much the only thing she has is the fact that she has been represented in Smash before, but her Assist has been gone for two games now and there hasn't been enough of a push for her to help her enter serious contention. Unrepped Nintendo series don't seem to have good chances for DLC, which is a shame, and even among those she probably doesn't stand out as much as things like Golden Sun or Rhythm Heaven.

Want: 27%
Feels kinda hard to score her, actually. She'd be from a new Nintendo franchise, which I like, and she actually has a few interesting options for a moveset. But...I have a lot of others that I'd give way higher priority. I also don't really have much personal connection to her or her games, so that docks her a few points, but I won't go higher primarily because I feel that in her case I'd be fine with her simply returning as an AT and maybe getting a Mii Costume or something. If you call me back after a few of the bigger non-repped Nintendo series get in, like Golden Sun, Advance Wars, or Rhythm Heaven, I might be able to go a bit higher. Part of me feels like I ought to go higher, but I don't see quite as much potential in her or her series as I see in others that are desperate for Smash representation. Wouldn't complain about her, though, and her being in could mean good things for other smaller series. And hey, I gave her a nonzero score so that's pretty good.

Noms: Andy x5

 

[Artix]

I'm gonna abstain. I don't know much about this character.

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Abstain, I've been too busy in the Decisive Games forums to really make a rating...

Nominations: Spyro x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Barbara

Chance: 10%
All the Nintendo characters chances have just gone down in likelihood this time, haven't they? Well, that's the reality of it. We can't seriously say that these characters, despite whatever merits they have as Nintendo characters, are comparable to a Joker reveal.

Even at the height of Brawl's speculation season, Barbara was seen more as an appreciable Assist Trophy than a potential candidate.

Want: 10%
In terms of appeal, the Elite Beat Agents have got her beat. She's just one-upped compared to a lot of other rhythm game candidates.


Prediction
Prince of All Cosmos: 8%

Nominations
Hat Kid x5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Huh, I haven't been getting alerts for this thread.

Barbara the Bat:

Chance - 0.1%

Her AT was cut after Brawl and her series is dead. Also she has hardly an fan demand so would not make sense as a DLC character at all.

Want - Abstain

Never played her game and know hardly anything about her.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Barbara the Bat

Chance: 0%
The chance for an obscure Japanese-only character that has been out of action for a while is so low that I might as well make it a zero. If Takamaru, a character that has been around longer and gained a bit of a cult following, can't make it in the base game due to being region-exclusive and too unknown, then any character even less known around the world is not getting in as paid DLC.

Want: 1%
I'm really not interested in Japan-only characters that I, and most of the world, know next to nothing about. Having a guitar-based moveset could be interesting, but not worth shelling out the extra cash for.

 

[PeridotGX]

Barbara

Chance: 0%. She's an obscure character who's games never made it to NA. Not looking good. Plus, if we were to get a music based fighter, it would be K.K Slider, no doubt

Want: Abstain. I've never played her game(s?)

Noms: Grovyle x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Barbara the Bat

0% Chance

Many factors. She is a spirit, which more and more I see as a con. Honestly, the number of characters who are spirits who I feel have a significant (>10%) chance (even if it is in future waves of dlc), is not that high (Not counting ATs, Rex, Dee, Geno, Rayman, RH, and Shantae even if it is low. Her lack of exposure is another massive con. She lacks either a marketing bump or a fanbase in the west. Daigasso has not had a game in a while, and for a Japanese exclusive character without much of a western fanbase with a relatively small fanbase, that is bad news. However, perhaps her biggest death knell is competition. I could go on about first party competition, but even for rhythm games Rhythm Heaven is a bigger deal. RH was considered by Sakurai in the past, we can tell this due to Gematsu and details within 4's data. I would feel more positive looking at RH as dlc than Daigasso.

Abstain Want

Honestly if I did not put her here as a request by Koopaul I would have given her a lower score. But this is a request by someone for the fixed schedule. I am not gonna scrooge things up by giving a zero in want. I honestly don't want to tank the want score further in this day. For this fixed schedule I ambeing generous and abstaining from requests for want unless I feel something towards them. Expect quite a few abstainings from me in want as this goes forward.

Sephiroth x 5

Today the Prince from Katamari rolls in. His Switch port is doing real well today. But will he do well among other Namco reps? Rate the Prince.

Now originally Chrous Kids and Karate Joe were gonna go tomorrow. But I am swapping them with Xurkitree since it looks like a Christmas Tree. Predict the electric ultra beast from pokemon.

As a sign of Christmas cheer, I will be giving every single person in this thread an option. You can either nominate something new (not on the noms list, something we have not rated before in the post release season) for 100 noms, or get 10 noms for your existing ideas on the noms board. This deal will go forward until New Years Day. You will have access to extra noms each day after you did your new idea. So for instance if I nominated Diablo, I would get 100 noms for him and then 10 each day after. Or I could keep nominating Sephiroth for 10.

Speaking of noms, purges. I do not plan on one for a while, the noms list is relatively tidy right now. I might consider something around Valentine's day.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Barbara the Bat

Chance: 0%
The chance for an obscure Japanese-only character that has been out of action for a while is so low that I might as well make it a zero. If Takamaru, a character that has been around longer and gained a bit of a cult following, can't make it in the base game due to being region-exclusive and too unknown, then any character even less known around the world is not getting in as paid DLC.

Want: 1%
I'm really not interested in Japan-only characters that I, and most of the world, know next to nothing about. Having a guitar-based moveset could be interesting, but not worth shelling out the extra cash for.

Barbara

Chance: 0%. Obscure, irrelevant Japanese only character. Not looking good. Plud, if we were to get a music based fighter, it would be K.K Dlider, no doubt

Want: Abstain. I've never played her game(s?)

Noms: Grovyle x5

Except the character is not Japanese exclusive, and with a recent release, is not irrelevant either.

 

[PeridotGX]

Prince used ROLLOUT!

Chance: 2%. It doesn't look all that good for him. He appears in Pac-Man's Taunt, which doesn't bode well. If they had to choose between the two newcomers to the Taunt, they'd choose Hehachi no doubt.

Want: Abstain. I've never played Katamari.

Noms: Maxwell (Scribblenauts) x100

Except the character is not Japanese exclusive, and with a recent release, is not irrelevant either.

I didn't know that one of her games made it to Europe and that she had a 2013 game. That's my mistake for blindly believing the post above me, and I'll fix that.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Except the character is not Japanese exclusive, and with a recent release, is not irrelevant either.

Jam with the Band 2 did get a European release, but the character is still not a big name in the west. Honestly looked over it within my research but I feel that it's lack of exposure overseas and how small of a franchise it is still stands.

As for recent release, the last game was 2013. That is 5 years old now, leaning on 6. I can't find anything more recent than that.

From my perspective, the comments for the most part stand. I missed JB2 getting to Europe for instance.

 

[RileyXY1]

The Prince

Chance: 3%
He is relevant, with his game recently released onto the Switch. However, Lloyd Irving is still the most likely Namco Bandai character, and the only way any character other than him can get in is if Lloyd was an Assist Trophy in the base game, which is not the case. He's also in Pac-Man's taunt now, alongside Heihachi.

Want: 0%
I don't care for him, although he seems cool. I've never played Katamari.

Nominate: Concept: Echoes as DLC x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

As a sign of Christmas cheer, I will be giving every single person in this thread an option. You can either nominate something new (not on the noms list, something we have not rated before in the post release season) for 100 noms, or get 10 noms for your existing ideas on the noms board. This deal will go forward until New Years Day. You will have access to extra noms each day after you did your new idea. So for instance if I nominated Diablo, I would get 100 noms for him and then 10 each day after. Or I could keep nominating Sephiroth for 10.

Speaking of noms, purges. I do not plan on one for a while, the noms list is relatively tidy right now. I might consider something around Valentine's day.

I am just gonna highlight this here, don't mind me.

 

[Flyboy]

The Prince
I'm gonna switch up my Chance and Want here...

Want: 75%
Katamari Damacy is a lovely series. The music is beautifully unique and fun. The creator of the series is absolutely hilarious on Twitter. The world is bursting with color and charm and humor, and I have a soft spot for non-traditional fighters. I feel like he's a rep we sleep on and would make a great surprising and fun Namco representative. Heck, they could even repurpose Living Room for him in a Classic mode. The only thing stopping me is that my friend brought up it being weird that you'd have a Katamari that fighters might not stick to. Maybe he'd be a better assist trophy? Oh, and that I want Lloyd more. But I'd be silly not to love what the Prince could bring to the table. Anything to add more humor and fun.

Chance: 50%
This one is only so hard because there is so much competition for the one Bamco rep between Lloyd, Prince, Heihachi, KOS-MOS, and even Agumon. However, the other thing that concerns me is that he appears in Pac-Man's taunts and if we consider the taunts as a way to represent a character (a la Heihachi being in) then his chances go down. It really is a coin flip for me.

Nomination: Style Savvy Rep x10

Thanks for the nomination gift, TCT! I'll promptly be voting in a predictable way and pushing my pick to the top. But I'll be keeping that x100 in my back pocket...

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Katamaris Roll Out

5% Chance

If I was not so sold on Lloyd or Solaire being our namco reps in terms of potential, I would have him higher. He has a fanbase and Smash this game appears to me going more niche. I do feel that it would be a good fit.

100% Want

Soundtrack is godly. If i was not on my phone I would be posting some tunes. Holy **** can someone please put up some of the music.

Also a stage would be amazing. Having Katamaris as a stage hazard that could grab you and roll around getting %. Also the King of all Cosmos should be perfect as a stage.

Nominating Tracer x 100

Yes I can use my noms, and she was not on the list. Honestly something to consider, even if I am not the biggest Overwatch fan.

 

[DaUsername]

Wait, Barbara's day is over already? Whatever, I'm gonna rate her anyway, even if I'm probably too late.

Spoiler: Barbara rating if it counts

Barbara
Chance: 1%
A character most people only know as "That one AT from Brawl" doesn't seem very likely. Especially since her games have only had one release outside of Japan and the last one was 5 years ago.
Prince prediction if it counts: 5%
Noms if they count: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

Prince rating will be in my next post.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Pa-paaaa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa-pa Katamari Damacyyyy

Chance:
Holy **** I have no clue. This is the kind of character that totally slips under your radar because he doesn’t get talked as much. Now I’d argue his only competition is Lloyd, seeing how Heihachi is a no-go. What he has over Lloyd is being more iconic and well-known (despite being infinitely more Japanese, odd). He’s also new to Smash, unlike Lloyd who used to be a Mii Costume. However, Lloyd has the popularity.

Also I just can’t fathom how a moveset for him would work. If somebody could link me to one or just the support thread I’d appreciate that.

I’ll give him a 15%.

Want: I love Katamari (although I recently played the original and man the controls suck). He’d bring a whole new crazy aesthetic to Smash that Tales of and Tekken just wouldn’t. I’m also curious about how he could be implemented. So I’ll give an 85%

Noms: Mach RiderX10

Predictions: Xurkitree 1%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Oh yeah Christmas nominations

Spoiler: Nominations post-Barbara the Bat pre-The Prince

Over 200

Arle Nadja x325
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x270
Rhythm Girl x265
Nero Claudius (Fate) x240

200 - 151

Grovyle x195
Hollow Knight x187
Mach Rider x185
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x181
Reaper (Overwatch) x180
Concept: More DLC x175
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x175
Reimu Hakurei x165

150 - 101

Kat & Ana x130
Professor Hector x119
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x110
Andy (Advance Wars) x105
Impa x101

100 - 51

Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Sephiroth x95
Concept: SNK rep x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Ravio x85
Concept: Boss Rush x80
Dark Matter x70
Porky Minch x66
9-Volt x59


50 - 25

Concept: Style Savvy rep x45
Creeper x42
Spyro x42
Frisk x40
Papyrus x39
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Ninten x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Hat Kid x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Kamek x10
Amaterasu x10
Earthworm Jim x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Andy commands over 100 nominations.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Katamari

Chance: 2%

-Katamari is a smaller series compared to the likes of Tekken, Tales, and Soul Calibur.
-He's in Pac-Man's taunt which imo doesn't bode well.

Want: 5%

-Not really interested in Katamari
-There are other Namco characters that I'd prefer(like any Tales character).

Xuritree Prediction: 0.44%

Nominate All DLC are 3rd party x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstaining because I don't know enough about the character

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x10

 

[Ridrool64]

"Fever Dream: The Game"'s Player Character

Chance: 20%. Lloyd Irving is incredibly steep competition: few Namco characters are more iconic and stand-out, and the only ones that clearly are, Heihachi and Pac-Man, are either facing a steep battle or already in. He also wouldn't break the bank, so there's that.

Want: 25%. I've heard that this game needs a lot more love, but honestly I think it'd make for a really good Assist Trophy over a fighter. That being said, it's mostly here for popularity's sake.

100x nominations to Concept: Last Character is "Fourth" Party. Failing that, I'm going to keep Arle at the top with a x10. EDIT: Just go with the other option.

Xurkitree isn't Gen 8 and isn't Lycanroc. If it breaks 0.41% then color me surprised.

 

[GoodGrief741]

"Fever Dream: The Game"'s Player Character

Chance: 20%. Lloyd Irving is incredibly steep competition: few Namco characters are more iconic and stand-out, and the only ones that clearly are, Heihachi and Pac-Man, are either facing a steep battle or already in. He also wouldn't break the bank, so there's that.

Want: 25%. I've heard that this game needs a lot more love, but honestly I think it'd make for a really good Assist Trophy over a fighter. That being said, it's mostly here for popularity's sake.

100x nominations to Concept: Last Character is "Fourth" Party. Failing that, I'm going to keep Arle at the top with a x10.

Xurkitree isn't Gen 8 and isn't Lycanroc. If it breaks 0.41% then color me surprised.

I heavily disagree with the idea that Lloyd Irving is in any way, shape or form more iconic than Katamari.

TCT~Phantom do we allow the concept of non-video game characters to be nominated?

 

[Ridrool64]

Eh, I had a change of heart anyway. I just felt like putting SOMETHING there.

Truth be told, I don't know how big Katamari is. But what I am pretty confident of is that Tales is bigger. Yuri is bigger than both, though.

 

[Kotor]

The Prince (Katamari)

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

This guy as a playable character? I'm not so sure. As it stands, I'm in agreement with Ridrool64 that the guy might be fine as an assist trophy. He could function similarly to Kapp'n. The Prince rolls a sticky ball and if you get trapped, you're sent to your death unless you successfully break free. My only familiarity with the game were through a bunch of random ads I saw and that was it. Never prompted me to buy the game. Not even the monstrosity of the giant ball you get from collecting everything wasn't enough.

Boss Rush x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Holy **** can someone please put up some of the music.

On it.

Spoiler

Namco's Kirby

Chance: 0.2%
Well he has the suprise factor going for him at the very least. Unfortunately, that's where it kinda ends for this little guy. Him appearing in Pac-Man's taunt is a giant indicator of that. While I wouldn't say it counts as a 100% deconfirmation, (there's a digdug enemy also in his taunt which also was a Smash Run baddy back in Sm4sh) it certainly doesn't spell good news for him either. He also shares that same role with Heihachi who I think, despite having a deceased VA would still be tough competition, along with Lloyd, an SC rep or the possibility of no Namco character at all. And I shouldn't underestimate Sakurai but I'd still be suprised if he was able to create a moveset for a little man rolling a sphere around.

Want: 90%
I've only played Katamari Forever, but it's all I need to play to see how fun of a franchise it is. Katamari in Smash would be mind blowing and way more fun and interesting than Tekken or Tales of. Planning on picking up Reroll very soon.

Xurkitree: 0.51%
Concept: 100 characters max (including echo fighters and Pokemon trainer as three) x100