Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ridrool64]

Palmacosta Pro/Peeping Tom/Arrgh, Me Hearties/Eternal Swordsman

Chance: 80%. Lloyd is one of the few characters I really see happening. He's (or at least his game is) popular, he's easy to make a moveset for both conceptually and in practice, and perhaps the kicker is that DLC is presumably going to focus on third party new series, both of which Tales of would be. He would have Heihachi as competition, if his actor wasn't dead (R.I.P still, no offense to him intended) and he wasn't part of Pac-Man's taunt.

Want: 70%. If you haven't played Tales of Symphonia, you are missing out. Easily my most wanted Namco character, though he's only around 6-7th overall.

Arle Nadja x 5. Heihachi has some very bad news working against him, so I'm seeing a 9.16% chance for him.

 

[Sari]

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 55%
Lloyd has a lot of things going for him such as being pretty popular and even having a mii costume in SSB4. Things are looking pretty good for him, however he has major competition with a Tekken rep (presumably Heihachi) for a possible Namco slot and I doubt we'd get more than 1 Namco rep. If a Tekken rep can't make it in then I think Lloyd is definitely the most likely Namco newcomer.

Want: Abstain
Never got around to completing Tales of Symphonia so I won't give an exact score, but overall I'd be pretty alright with his inclusion.

Heihachi chance prediction: 45.91%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

 

[Artix]

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 50%
Lloyd is one of the more likely candidate for a second Namco rep because of his series' popularity and the fact that it had a Mii costume based on him. However, while I still believe that he's most likely, he still has to face with Tekken characters like Heihachi or Jin. Also, Yuri Lowell gets in the way due to having an upcoming Definitive Edition of Tales of Vesperia on the Switch, so it's most likely that they'll go after him for promotion purposes. It's basically a coin flip at this point as to which one that Nintendo will pick as DLC (Tales or Tekken).

Want: 80%
Lloyd is one of my favorite characters in the Tales franchise. I have played Tales of Symphonia ever since I got a Gamecube and I am having fun playing it. While I generally prefer Jin to be our second Namco rep (assuming they can no longer use Heihachi, that is), I still want Lloyd in Smash.

Heihachi Mishima Prediction: 35.88%

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Lloyd:
Chance: 40%-He was a Mii costume, I'll give him that, but with the comments on Bartz/Terra and Alucard, I think fame takes quite the precedence on third-party characters, and with Yuri being the most popular protagonist in the series and Vesperia coming to Switch, he's got a giant wall ahead; plus, I still think a Tekken character can get in over him, even if it's not Heihachi.
Want: 0%-Lost interest in the character a long time ago and would rather get Yuri or that Tekken character instead. Won't whine if he makes it though.
Nominations: All-guests pass x5.

 

[SPEN18]

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 40%
Actually a really high score for anybody at this point. He loses some points for not being from a game they're heavily promoting right now, although the Tales series itself is very much alive and Lloyd is probably the definitive choice for that franchise. He also has to compete with other Namco reps, although the only serious competitor is probably Heihachi, who has been made much less likely by his appearance in Pac-Man's taunt (I also viewed Lloyd as more likely than Heihachi before this info came out). You can't pull the "Spirits/ATs/Mii Costumes disconfirm characters" trick on Lloyd either, and the fact that he had a Mii Costume in the past still shows that he's been on the radar for Smash. All in all, he has a lot more going for him than most at this point in time. The main reasons I won't go higher are the low number of remaining slots, the fact that there are a lot of companies in the mix for those slots (so no guarantee that we get a Namco rep at all) and the small chance that they'd pick Yuri.

Want: 79%
Hey, anything above 0% is pretty good from me, especially recently. Lloyd Irving is at the top of my list of third parties I'd like to see in Smash. He's got the association with Nintendo, as Tales of Symphonia started out on the GCN, so he passes that test. Out of all the third parties that are already repped in Smash, Namco is the one I'd like to see get another one, especially given the work they've put in on Smash itself over the years. Moveset possibilities are through the roof with this dude, too; I don't care that he uses swords. He also gets points for being Isaac's brother in arms (Colette and Jenna better watch out, as the brotherhood is strong). I won't go all the way to 100% because I'll admit that Lloyd isn't the biggest of names out there, so him being a bit more iconic would make him a better fit. There's also a number of first-party characters I'd like to see first, though being number 1 on my third party list is definitely worth something. So he loses points for being a third party, but he has enough other stuff going for him for me to still give him a good score. I wasn't quite sure where he'd fall between 70% and 80%, but it's probably closer to 80%. Plus 79 is prime.

Noms: Andy x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Oh boy oh boy!

Lloyd Irving. Here It's hot coffee.

Chance: 75%

Yes I'm going there. Man has this been a roller coaster but the November 1st Direct which confirmed Spirits and DLC has really paved the way for him this time.

-The Tales Series is a legacy Series starting in 1995 on the SNES with Tales of Phantasia. At the time, the gameplay was very innovative for being an Action RPG as JRPGs barring exceptions like Secret of Mana(which is more or less on ice) were turn based. It's also the pioneer for character interaction because of the series's signature feature that is skits which features portrait styled conversations among the party. It ranges from the party's thoughts on the current goal to general off topic banter. It became a beloved feature among Tales fans for fleshing out characters. There were even RPGs that even became inspired by the skit system(Bravely Default and Arc Rise Fantasia for example, the latter is even made by some of the Tales of Symphonia developers).

-With it's many main installments and pin offs, theme park, it's own Tales convention with the Tales festival, it easily prompts itself as one of the top 10 RPG franchises. Some reviewers citing it as the 3rd biggest JRPG series at least in Japan behind DQ and FF. So far there's no 3rd party rep that represents Action RPGs(No FFVII remake doesn't count as that barely even exists).

-While the series was infamous for Namco's poor treatment of the series in the west, things started to change around with Graces F being announced for the the west. Every mainline game started to be localized and advertised more. Some of the mobile games were released(but cancelled) here. Tales of Crestoria the newest mobile being the latest game announced for localization. With Tales of Berseria's success in the west, the developers are taking time for their next main game to sell to westerners. Smash is probably a very good way to do that(It's happened with Bayonetta and rumoured to happen with DQ).

-With these facts known about Tales, it easily earned the right to get presence in Smash which has the become a general Game Crossover game now.

Spoiler

It's actually iced coffee, I had Genis make it cold.

-3rd party characters more or less need some familarity with both sides of the pond. While Tales of has been very obscure during the early days, one game managed to break through that barrier. Tales of Symphonia.

-Tales of Symphonia was the breakout Tales game. It became one of the best selling Tales games overall and is the best selling Tales game in the west. This was helped by Nintendo themselves helping advertise the game. Because of this and other reasons stated below, Lloyd Irving is the likeliest Tales character to be in Smash. There was even a Symphonia themed Gamecube which was in a Gamecube cabinet at Gamescom

1. Lloyd is no doubt the most requested Namco character overall behind Pac-Man. The Smash Bros newcomer Tournament on Reddit places him 4th.
2. He's the only Tales character to get a mii costume. It was even released alongside Chrom and King. Rool both of whom are in Base Ultimate.
3. Sakurai mentions him as the ideal Tales Rep.
4. Namco developed 4 and Ultimate, and still only has 1 character like Square Enix while every other company got another character in Base & DLC so far in Ultimate.
5. The Tales of Symphonia Director and producer helped develop 4 and Ultimate. The Producer even said he would like a Tales rep in the game and thinks the director would agree.
6. One of the biggest evidences of his inclusion is that fact that out of every Namco franchise that returned in Ultimate in some form, Tales is the only one not shown in any form.
7. Apparently(only heard this from other users here)Lloyd's voice actor has been avoiding Smash Ultimate related questions while he was open to discussion about it in the past.
8. His name has been heard by insiders(along with Yuri) and no other Namco character hasn't, although there's not enough basis for this though.
9. To dispel the generic Anime Swordsman BS, Lloyd or any Tales character(that isn't a pure magic user) would easily have a distinct moveset with the Series's signature combo system. You have a menu to select which moves you use and the button commands are identical to Smash's. Moves are divided by Base artes(lvl 1), Mid artes(lvl 2), and Arcane(lvl 3). And you can combo from Base-Arcane. Most generic Lloyd movesets have him just use the base artes in his B moveset which is unlikely to be the case as 3rd parties are in a way, royal guests and receive superb representation(unless your Sonic, and Cloud outside of moveset).

In Tales of Graces, Artes were seperated at A and B types. B types were your signature moves you set in the menu. A artes however are pre-set and you use the regular attack button to use them. You go to the next level up to lvl 4 if you press attack again and whatever dirrection the stick before the time window goes out or you don't get staggered.

Lloyd can easily use a variation here where his Base artes are used when you first press the special button but if you manage to hit the opponent, press the button again before the time window is up and don't get staggered, the special would go to mid and then Arcane. Making him a dedicated Combo Fighter like what the Tales gameplay is mainly about.

This is all I can write up for Lloyd, but DaybreakHorizon has a very detailed write-up supporting Lloyd's inclusion in Smash.

As for cons. His main competition is really just Heihachi(but his chances IMO isn't looking all that good right now), and possibly Solaire.

Want: 100%

-Easily my most wanted character right now for Smash(or a general Tales character).
-Tales is one of my favourite franchises, and I would love to see it get more love in the west.

Speaking of Heihachi... Heihachi Prediction: 13.77%

Nominate All DLC is 3rd Party x5

Spoiler

I lied, it's actually hot!

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I was beamed here by Icedragonadam , but I'll give my two cents.

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 80%

I wrote this arguing for Lloyd's inclusion, so I'll let it do most of the speaking for me.

The Definitive Case for Lloyd​

Hello everyone and welcome to the third post in a series of speculation posts written by your's truly. In this post I'll be arguing for Lloyd Irving, whom I believe to be the closest thing to a shoe-in for inclusion as a DLC fighter. This may sound ironic coming from one of most vocal detractors of the concept of shoe-ins, but I will legitimately be surprised if Lloyd isn't one of our DLC fighters. Let me tell you why:

Spoiler: Acknowledgements

• "But tehponycorn," you say, "this has already been done!" You would be correct, as Not-Neuro on Reddit (who I believe is our own @VashTehStampede) wrote a long post detailed potential points supporting Lloyd's inclusion. However, I'll be diving deeper into the argument of why Lloyd should be included more than "here's how cool of an inclusion he'd be."
• I'll acknowledge my own fan bias up front, as I highly regard Tales of the Abyss and enjoyed both the Tales of the Abyss and Symphonia anime series. That being said, I'll be leaving my bias at the door and, like my other two speculation posts, arguing more about "why I believe he's likely" instead of "why I want him."

Spoiler: Background - Why a Namco Character?

It's a well-known fact that Bandai Namco helped with the development of Super Smash Brothers for 3DS and Wii U (which will be referred to as Sm4sh for the rest of this essay), and that same team came back to help develop Smash Ultimate as well. This is amazing for relationships between Nintendo and Namco, and naturally lends itself towards facilitating the process of including Namco characters in Smash Bros. Sakurai echoes this sentiment in his "My First Conception is My Landmark" Famitsu Column, wherein he reflects on the inclusion of Pac-Man in Sm4sh:

So, it's established that since Nintendo is working alongside Bandai Namco, it's a logical step to include their characters in Smash Bros. Despite this, within the same column Sakurai says this:

This may seem like a hard disconfirmation, but it's important to note the statement in the question "any other strong candidates." The interviewer is asking if compared to Pac-Man were there any other strong candidates. Any other IPs from Bandai Namco pale in comparison to the arcade legend that is Pac-Man. Sakurai even states this when he says that "Pac-Man is perhaps Namco’s most iconic character." He additionally says that there were other characters in consideration, such as Heihachi, showing that other characters were considered alongside Pac-Man, but ultimately Pac-Man was the one chosen. Now that Pac-Man is a character in Ultimate, the doors are open for other Namco DLC characters to be included. Now the question is:

Spoiler: Why Lloyd Irving?

I previously discussed what I believe to be the criteria for a third party's inclusion within my Square Enix Character Argument (which you should totally read if you're into current speculation or any Square Enix character in general):


So, does the Tales of series fit these criteria?

The Tales franchise debuted in 1995 on the Super Nintendo, and has been between Nintendo and Playstation systems with a singular prominent appearance on the Xbox 360. Prominent gaming journalist Jeremy Parish called the Tales franchise "quite arguably Japan's third-biggest RPG series, right after Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest," which where the claim of it being one of the "Big Three" JRPG series originates from, and certainly the sheer size of the series speaks for itself. The series has spawned multiple spin-off games, CD dramas, anime and manga series, and even has its own fan conventions in both America and Japan. The conference in Japan is so big that it's called a "festival. It's two days long and attracts tens of thousands of fans (there were 22,000 in attendance in 2014). Did I mention that this festival has been held yearly for 11 years now? In my opinion it's more fitting to call the Tales of series a multimedia franchise instead of a simple video game series, but I digress. The series meets both of the two primary criteria for inclusion as it is both historic and iconic, even having a prominent relationship with Nintendo to boot, unlike Tekken or other Namco series. Faithful representation is incredibly easy given that the series plays like a conventional fighting game, and special attacks are attributed to directional inputs, similar to the well known neutral, side, up, and down specials, which is another pro for the series.

All that being said, we return to the main question: "Why Lloyd Irving?"

At a surface level, Lloyd doesn't seem likely as a Tales of representative at all. Tales of Symphonia isn't as relevant as more recent Tales of titles such as Zestiria or Berseria, nor is Lloyd the most popular character within the series, as he's lucky to place within the bottom half of the Top 10 in official fan polls (his most recent results are 11th in the 8th character poll in 2017 and 9th in the 7th character poll in 2014). Two characters, Yuri Lowell and Leon Magnus, are legitimately banned from the poll because they were too popular and kept winning. Yuri Lowell, the most popular Tales of character and the protagonist of Tales of Vesperia, also just so happens to have a remastered edition of his game coming out in less than a month from the time of writing, making him a natural pick for inclusion as the Tales of representative, right?

Wrong.

You see, the thing about Lloyd Irving is that he is THE Nintendo Tales of character, and Tales of Symphonia's impact on the series is large enough to make up for a lack of relevancy and popularity.

Tales of Symphonia is interesting because Nintendo stepped in to personally advertise it themselves alongside Bandai Namco. It was a prominent Nintendo Gamecube release, and stands as an outlier in a series predominantly on Playstation systems at the time. The game itself was popular enough to warrant a sequel which was another prominent Nintendo title, making the Tales of Symphonia games the closest related to Nintendo in the series.

In 2013 series' producer Hideo Baba stated that Tales of Symphonia was the most popular Tales of title in the West, specifically citing the support from Nintendo:


In 2014, Tales of Symphonia was further called the most successful title in the series for the 6th generation of consoles by product manager Dennis Lee, beating out Tales of Rebirth, Tales of Legendia, and Tales of the Abyss for that position. Both of these interviews occurred after the releases of Tales of Vesperia and Tales of Destiny, where the two most popular characters in the series originate from.

Tales of Symphonia is significant because it did what Dragon Quest still has yet to do: break into the Western market. Prior to its release, the Tales of was largely unknown in the West, but Symphonia changed that. While the series is still largely based in Japan, Symphonia introduced the series to the Western market with a splash, thanks to Nintendo. From there, it's managed to establish a community prominent enough that Bandai Namco takes feedback from them for the series. Lloyd is perfect mix between the series' Western and Eastern popularity and has the most prominent association with Nintendo out of any character in the series, and that is what makes him the most likely pick.


"but tehponycorn," you say, "Sakurai chose Cloud instead of Bartz or Terra because he was more popular despite having no association with Nintendo!"

You would be correct in that there is no precedent for Sakurai taking solid relationships with Nintendo into account when choosing a representative for a long-running franchise like Final Fantasy or Tales of. However, it's important to figure out why Sakurai chose Cloud over another Final Fantasy character:

Everyone knows who Cloud is compared to other Final Fantasy protagonists. Lloyd doesn't have this problem compared to Yuri Lowell or Leon Magnus, and i is more well known in the West than the former two due to Symphonia's success, and is well known enough in Japan to make up for a lack of popularity; he is arguably the most "globally recognized" character in the series given Symphonia's worldwide popularity.

Sakurai even acknowledges this within an interview with Nintendo Dream Magazine about Sm4sh's DLC, wherein he addresses the inclusion of Lloyd's Mii Costume:


While Sakurai, vague as always, doesn't elaborate on why Lloyd was the only "appropriate choice," the two characters mentioned, Lloyd and Cress, are the two characters in the Tales of series with the most prominent ties to Nintendo. Regardless, Lloyd is apparently the only choice for a Tales of representative, and that is incredibly significant. It's very well that the answer to the question: "Why Lloyd Irving?" could simply be "Because Sakurai said so."

I'm omitting the argument that Mii Costumes are concessions to fans of popular characters given the speculative nature of it (we will never truly know how well a character performed in the Ballot, but I will acknowledge the possibility that Lloyd's Mii Costume was added due to a successful turnout within the Smash Ballot. Characters such as Inklings, King K. Rool, and Chrom all made the jump from Mii Costume to playable in Ultimate, and it's a reasonable conclusion to believe that Lloyd could make the same jump. If we choose to believe the statements of insiders such such as Vergeben and @BKupa666's source this conclusion becomes more solid as the Ballot was taken into heavy consideration when deciding to include Simon and King K. Rool respectively.

I'll also acknowledge the common counterargument that Heihachi would be considered instead of Lloyd. Within the column mentioned in the "Background - Why a Namco Character" section (man I'm really milking this one) Sakurai mentions that Heihachi was considered, but ultimately dismissed and elaborates a bit as to why that happened:

Tekken is a 3D fighting game, further than that, another essential aspect of the game is its controls: different buttons control different limbs instead of having different buttons for light, regular, and heavy attacks like other fighting games. These factors among make it difficult to faithfully represent Tekken within Smash Bros, and therefore it isn't worth butchering the series core mechanics to incorporate it into Smash Bros. Faithful representation is an essential aspect of a character's inclusion in Smash Bros., and if Sakurai and co. can't be true to Tekken's gameplay, they simply won't include him.

Sakurai has revisited scrapped ideas before, such as the Miis, Villager, Pac-Man, and Ridley, all of whom he believed couldn't be faithfully represented within Smash Bros., but this isn't a matter of being a non-fighter or being too big; the dissonance between Tekken's gameplay and that of Smash Bros. is too large to viably come up with a compromise and still faithfully represent the series. Heihachi will likely remain an aspect of Pac-Man's Namco Roulette taunt, and will get a Mii Costume at best.

Spoiler: Closing

Lloyd Irving is, at the very least, the most likely character for inclusion from Bandai Namco. No other franchise of their's bar Tekken comes anywhere close to the impact and legacy of the Tales of series, and Tekken is far too difficult to viably include in Smash so it's a nonstarter. I will admit that KOS-MOS and maybe Agumon could be dark horse picks, but neither have the popularity or relevancy to match the Tales of franchise, especially in regards to Smash Brothers, where the only two well-requested characters from Namco are Lloyd and Heihachi. Hopefully through writing this you can understand just why I see Lloyd as being so likely, and why I would more be surprised if he isn't one of our DLC fighters instead of if he is.

Spoiler: Postscript

Wow this post took way too long to write. I started writing this almost immediately after finishing my last one on Monday (if you haven't read it yet, it's a lovely little essay about why we shouldn't be so quick to trust insiders using The Game Awards as an example), but I got sidetracked and experienced writers block up until now. To add insult to injury, my computer auto-updated Thursday night, deleting any progress I had (I foolishly hadn't saved anything) and forcing me to rewrite the entire essay. Fortunately, nothing of major substance was lost, but it was a large inconvenience.

I have an idea for one more speculation post, but I don't know if I'll actually get around to writing it. At worst I'll write a mini speculation post about it as I don't know if I have as many sources as I'd like for it and need to actually search for sources instead of having them on file from previous speculation like my last two posts (and parts of this one). If there are any topics you'd be interested in me discussing more in-depth I'd love to hear any suggestions or feedback in general you have for me. Believe it or not, I enjoy writing large essay-length arguments like this, and I find them particularly interesting to research and (relatively) easy to write, and if a topic interests me I'm more than willing to go in-depth in researching it and then report on what I find. Again, feel free to suggest topics and we'll see what happens from there.

Anyways, I hope you enjoyed reading this!

I'd give Lloyd something more definitive like 90% or 95%, but a Dark Souls character (either Solaire or Artorius) or KOS-MOS are dark horse picks that could be added instead of him in my opinion.

Want: 100%

I'm a fan of the Tales of series, and Lloyd could bring an incredibly unique dual-wielding moveset that I'd love to see. After Sora (who's more of a pipe dream at this point), he's my most wanted.

Nominate All DLC being 3rd Party x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

I really want to give a rating, but I'll abstain...

Nominations: Spyro x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Lloyd

Chance: 50 - Before I found out about another certain contender from BN now being a taunt for PacMan I had Lloyd's chances a bit lower in my head. I haven't done a ton of looking into things, but I feel like Lloyd is probably the top contender for BN to get another rep now. He and Heihachi seemed to be one and two for a new potential BN rep, and Heihachi being a part of PacMans drops him behind Lloyd for me

Want: Abstain

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[Cetus]

lloyds the boyds

Chance 60%-Being Namco but also mysteriously not being a spirit while also probably having a presence on the ballot. Hm... Dunno, how relevant Symphonia is but I think he's pretty likely. Only problem is he faces competition from Tekken, 2b, and maybe even Klonoa as Namco's second rep.

Want 50%-Never played Symphonia but...

"yozora wo kakeru nagareboshi wo ima
mitsukeraretara nani wo inoru darou
tabidatsu kimi to kawa****a yakusoku
kokoro no naka ni itsumo aru"

 

[3DSNinja]

The SSF veteran
Chance:75%: Tales is popular. Also wouldn't be expected.
Want:75%: He is cool in the SSF games. Lots of moveset potential.
Nominations:
Hollow Knight x 5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I'm sorry, we're all out of hair gel...

Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

After getting a Mii costume in the last round, it definitely seems like a possibility now. Lloyd's got a fanbase behind him, and he's unquestionably the most popular character from the Tales Of series. Namco's codeveloping the game, and yet they're the only thrid party with only a single character in game. What could go wrong?

Realistically? Lloyd's not that iconic. Sure, people know him, but he's nowhere near the level of characters like Ryu or Cloud. If Namco were to get someone, Heihachi seems to be first in line...but with his appearance as a new member of Pac-Man's taunt, it seems like he's out of the way. Honestly, I think he has some of the better chances from the characters we've rated so far.

But...

Ugh, I'd much prefer a Soul Calibur character instead. Nightmare would be awesome, and it'd make a great promo if they wanted to port SCVI to the Switch (and let Link return...?). I've never been a huge fan of the anime aesthetic (particularly unnaturally spiked hair), I'm not big on JRPGs (I prefer the Western 1st person open sandbox ones), and one of the things that really annoys me about Smash are characters who don't have iconic headgear so Kirby just ends up with a wig (Why did they get rid of Zelda's wimple?!). There is nothing that excites me about Lloyd whatsoever, and if the other rumored character is in, that'd make three DLC characters in a style/genre that I have little to no interest in. I even found during my Classic playthroughs that there's a character or two who interest me even less than Dark Pit...and there seems to be a theme there...

I'm trying to teach myself to be more judicious in my DLC purchases, since most games will give me packs that don't really excite me and I only end up playing a few of the characters. The completionist in me is fighting that, but so far I've seen nothing about the DLC that makes me think I'll need it. We'll see when we get some Joker gameplay, but as yet I'm keeping my money in my pocket.

With the few remaining DLC slots, I feel like I'll be giving out loads of zeroes in want. If we've only got four left, I'd like at least one to be halfway up my alley...

Nom: More DLC x5

 

[FancySmash]

Villager's Side Special

Chance: 50%
This scenario hinges on one thing really, whether or not Namco is asked for a second rep. With echoes out of the picture, Ms. Pac Man is out of the running. Heihachi appearing in Pac-Man's taunt to some extent eliminates him. There are others, like Klonoa I suppose, but they don't hold much in terms of competition when compared to Lloyd.

Want: Abstain
I have no exposure with the Tales of series, so I have to abstain. However, there is something that bothers me. Our first character is Joker, a JRPG character. Current leaks still insist we're getting a Square character, which is likely to be, again, a JRPG charater. Lloyd on top of that... well another JRPG character, just wouldn't give much in terms of diversity for DLC, meaning fans of anything other than JRPG would be left with little to nothing.

Predictions: Heihachi
Poor soul, relegated to a Pac Man taunt. Still, his chances could be worse, he could be an Assist Trophy or Spirit... 10.06%

Nominations: Professor Hector x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Lllllllllloyd
Chance: 10%
Lloyd definitely is a fan favorite and with Heihachi seemingly deconfirmed the spotlight is on him right now. However a part of me thinks when it came to a second Namco rep it would've been Heihachi or bust since Tekken is kinda the most succesfull fighting game franchise at the moment. Let us not forget that Soul calibur, Dark Souls and Jin exist as well so it's not like Heihachi was the only competion he had.

Also, Lloyd feels a little, how do I say it, Geno-ish to me... A character with huge popularity in the hardcore Smash speculation community but would not get a big reaction out of people outside of that. With him being a little too niche for casual people and him not having alot of current relevancy I don't think he fits within the direction Nintendo will take with the DLC.

Want: Abstain

Heihachi: 3.36%
Hollow Knight x5

 

[shocktarts17]

Lloyd
Chance: 50%
For now I'm not sure I feel like I can give an character more than a 50% since the whole DLC speculation seems so up in the air. All the points made for him by his supporters make sense but I can't help but feel like assuming any 3rd party is guaranteed a slot when the competition is this fierce makes no one feel like they have a better than average chance. For Lloyd I think the biggest thing holding him back would be a lack of recognition from the more casual Smash fans, since his game is a JRPG that isn't Final Fantasy.

Want: 50%
I would put him as high up on my 3rd party reps list but I am really not very excited about the fighter pass being all 3rd party. If we find out one or two of the other fighters are Nintendo characters I could see this number going up.

Prediction: Heihachi: 10.8%
It surprises me how much I still see his name considering I figured the Pac-Man taunt was a pretty hard deconfirm.

Nomination: Ravio x5
Go go Ravio!

 

[AirMac1]

Abstaining

Noms:9-volt x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Tails of

Chance: 10%
Wait, what? That’s so low! I know, I know, but let me explain myself. As per Reggie’s comment, DLC will be characters new to Smash, and Lloyd has been in as a Mii Costume in the past. Speaking about Mii Costumes, they’re coming back, so I’m expecting those guys (Geno, Lloyd, everyone’s favorite Gil) to be resold. But hey, Lloyd has the credentials. He’s pretty requested, and the go-to choice for a Tales character, though I dunno. I don’t think Lloyd would be a splashy hypey character like Joker.

Want: 75%
I love Tales of Symphonia, so I’d love for Lloyd to get in, but there’s a couple of things that bring him down a bit. First off, he’s not what you’d call iconic, so I’m not sure he belongs. Second, I think Heihachi should be in first, but I understand why he won’t.

Nominations Mach RiderX5

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 50%
When it comes to getting a second Namco rep, it's either a Tales character or a Tekken character. For Tales, while Lloyd is most likely candidate due to the popularity of his series and having a Mii costume in the past, there's also Yuri Lowell from Tales of Vesperia due to having an upcoming game on the Switch hence Nintendo would most likely go after him for the surprising factor. It's a coin flip between those two really, but don't forget that they still have to face a Tekken character for the slot, particularly Heihachi or Jin Kazama (if Heihachi being part of Pac-Man really deconfirms him).

Want: Abstain
Never played Tales of Symphonia before.

Nominations:
Nero Claudius x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

TCT~Phantom do you know when the calcs results are coming?

Lloyd rating coming soon

 

[WaddleMatt]

Oh boy its a character I actually feel confident in. Rating coming later.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Abstaining.

Nominations
Frisk x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I find it funny that on Layton’s day people said Jibanyan was his competition, but on Jibanyan’s day everyone said he had no chance because they would pick Layton.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Jibanyan pre-Lloyd Irving

Over 200

Arle Nadja x300
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x230
Rhythm Girl x220
Nero Claudius (Fate) x210

200 - 151


Grovyle x170
Concept: More DLC x160
Mach Rider x160
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x156
Reaper (Overwatch) x155

150 - 101

Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x150
Reimu Hakurei x140
Hollow Knight x137
Kat & Ana x125
Professor Hector x114
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x110
Impa x101


100 - 51

Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Andy (Advance Wars) x90
Lora (Xenoblade) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Sephiroth x70
Concept: SNK rep x70
Porky Minch x66
Concept: Boss Rush x65
Ravio x65


50 - 25

Dark Matter x50
9-Volt x49
Creeper x37
Papyrus x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Frisk x30
Spyro x27
Ninten x26
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Concept: Style Savvy rep x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Kamek x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Amaterasu x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Earthworm Jim x5
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Arle Nadja reaches 300 noms.

Nero Claudius fates 200 noms (I know nothing about this character).

Reaper reaps 150 noms.

Concept: Style Savvy rep struts to the over 25 club.

Today’s new concept is... I’ll just copy and paste it: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans (with 5 noms).

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Lloyd

Chance: 40%

He's one of the stronger contenders for DLC at the moment. He has some popularity and, with Namco already on board, getting the rights should be quite easy. Of course, the with there only being 4 known open spots left, competition is fierce and he could just get overlooked again.

Want: 10%
I have no connection to his or his game, so I'm mostly indifferent to the character. From the looks of things, he appears to be yet another "anime swordsman," so his abilities don't exactly win me over either.

 

[alguidrag]

Lloyd

50%

One of the best third parties out there for me, Pac-man is the solo Namco rep so would be good if Namco got another character, I think Sakurai mentioned him once, so at least he knows of him, his dual sword skill makes him pretty unique if we compare to the actual Smash rooster(a lot of swordsman but no dual-wielder) so I think he have chance to be in there.

Want
85%

Out of Spirits, AT and bosses, Lloyd is my 4°most wanted character, and one of the only two realistic choices, he dual sword skill would make a fun moveset and being another JRPG character, he is good on my books

nomination
Crono x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Isaac 2

Chance: 75%
Bandai Namco only getting 1 character in Smash is STILL weird. I feel like, with the announcement of Joker opening the doors for more 3rd party DLC, Bamco is going to get another rep. Lloyd is really the only option here. He got a mii costume, and Sakurai says he'd definitely be the tales rep if we got one, so that's really that. We're not getting a Tekken or Soul Caliber rep because of how difficult it'd be to translate their moveset. Dark Souls or something COULD get in, but I doubt it.

Want: 20%
Lloyd is kinda cute, but I don't have any real attachment to him. From what people have told me, he sounds like he'd have an awesome moveset. That's enough for me.

Nominating Rhythm Girl x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Some anime kid who uses too much hair gel.
Chance: 30%
Want: 30%

This is gonna be a short one. He's a Bamco rep, and Sakurai stated that PAC-MAN was the only rep he thought was a good choice from Bamco. He also thought of Heihachi, but he said he was too difficult to translate into Smash. I also have no interest in Lloyd, but I do think he is a viable Bamco pick compared to the rest of its selection of characters. Yet again, he's just another anime swordsman, and there are many other characters I'd rather see.

Heihachi: 9.87%

Reaper x5

 

[Troykv]

I find it funny that on Layton’s day people said Jibanyan was his competition, but on Jibanyan’s day everyone said he had no chance because they would pick Layton.

This fandom really must hate Pikachu wannabes.

____

Dual Sword Lord

Chance: 30%

The character being part of a list of characters that we would say we're recognized as popular with Mii Customes is always a good sign; Tales is also one of these franchises that have a big following, and it would representing, not exactly Dragon Quest's levels of recognition, but still it would make sense to represent Tales in Smash; maybe the reason I think Lloyd is the most likely of all the potential choices is because he's the most appealing choices of all of them; having a moveset around two swords with different properties can be quite interesting.

Want: 50%

Not specially connection with Lloyd outside of being a Dual Sword Lord with a Fiery Sword and Icy Sword... sounds cool anyway.

____

Prediction:

Heihaichi: 10.4%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Gyroid

Chance: 50%. He makes sense. Namco still only has one character, and Lyoid is absent from Pac-Man's one taunt (unlike Hehachi). I wouldn't be suprised at all if he gets in.

Want: Abstain

Noms: Grovyle x5

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from third party Isaac.
Heihachi prediction: 45%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Some anime kid who uses too much hair gel.
Chance: 30%
Want: 30%

This is gonna be a short one. He's a Bamco rep, and Sakurai stated that PAC-MAN was the only rep he thought was a good choice from Bamco. He also thought of Heihachi, but he said he was too difficult to translate into Smash. I also have no interest in Lloyd, but I do think he is a viable Bamco pick compared to the rest of its selection of characters. Yet again, he's just another anime swordsman, and there are many other characters I'd rather see.

Heihachi: 9.87%

Reaper x5

You got a source on that Sakurai statement?

 

[RealPokeFan11]

You got a source on that Sakurai statement?

Sakurai statements about Bandai Namco and character choices. (Heihachi)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Sakurai statements about Bandai Namco and character choices. (Heihachi)

Ah, well in context it doesn’t sound that damning. It’s not like he outright said ‘Pac-Man and Heihachi are the only two good Namco characters’, they’re just the two he considered back then.

 

[Sid-cada]

Lloyd Irving

Chance - 20% - There aren't as many clear cut Namco characters left. With some competition, it's even murkier waters. While he seems popular among the Smash crowed, it's hard to say that given the general obscurity of the Franchise that he isn't that famous. I think he's probably the most likely Namco Representative, though who knows how much that will mean in the end?

Want - 50% - I guess he has some cool moves. I don't care for him, though.


Prediction

Heihachi - 13.42% - Who knows?


Nominations

Dark Matter X5

 

[Xigger]

Ah, well in context it doesn’t sound that damning. It’s not like he outright said ‘Pac-Man and Heihachi are the only two good Namco characters’, they’re just the two he considered back then.

Right, it's just another dated statement. Nothing to see here.

 

[Mario123311]

Lloyd Irving

Chance - 88%

Want: - 0%

Again, I already stated why I don't want this guy a long time back. If you really are curious I can link it here again. I'm just insulted, Especially considering Pac-Man's material in Ultimate still doesn't have anything from the trilogy that made a lot of people want the character in Smash since the Brawl days.

I am sick of having this franchise shoved down my throat, It's literally Namco's Fire Emblem.

 

[Flyboy]

Lloyd Irving

Chance: 50%
This is a tough one. I want to say he has a great chance but it all hinges on whether Bamco gets another rep. Heihachi seemed to be his biggest competition but he's in the Pac-Man taunts so that seems out. You can't discredit Yoshimitsu or Nightmare. And of course there's Yuri Lowell. Plus there's the returning Mii costumes possibly being DLC... It's super tough to call so I'm going down the middle.

Want: 75%
While Lloyd isn't really in my personal wants, I gotta admit that Smash really feels like it's missing him. I love GameCube reps and I know Tales is huge. I personally have played a handful of Tales games and enjoyed them all and I know friends who absolutely love Symphonia and would love to see him in. To me he's THE Tales rep for Smash. Sure, I like Velvet more and I know how popular Yuri is but Lloyd has importance to the series and to Nintendo and a cool moveset to boot.

I really hope it isn't Yuri for selfish reasons, those being that I haven't met a non-annoying Vesperia fan yet, but I'll take it. Still, I'm glad Sakurai seems to agree that Lloyd would be the best Tales rep and I hope he makes it in.

Nominations:
Concept: Style Savvy Rep x5

I'm pushing this train myself dang it.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Lloyd Irving:

Chance - 60%

Its high but that's because I am confident in his chances. Bandai Namco still only has one character and considering they once again helped developing the game they deserve it. Tales is a highly praised series with a large fanbase and Lloyd is the most iconic protagonist from the series and it helps that his game was on the Gamecube. Yea, there is other Tales protagonists that are popular but even Sakurai said Lloyd was the most iconic so I feel if he had a choice he would pick Lloyd. Also it is odd that Heihachi appears in Pac-Man's taunt but nothing from Tales at all. Overall I feel Lloyd is a quite likely character for Ultimate DLC.

Want - Abstain

Yea I am abstaining on a character again, what is new? Well I have never touched Tales so I can't really give a legit opinion.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5 (How long until she gets added to the list, I noticed Arle got added a while back now)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over,


Today we got Heihachi from Tekken, one of Bamcos biggest franchise series and a juggernaut for fighters. While there are other Tekken characters like Jin and Kazuma, Heihachi is the most iconic. Rate Heihachi from Tekken (and as parent of the year).

Tomorrow we go back to Capcom turf. Originally we would just have rated Leon, but **** that. Predict Leon Kennedy and Jill Valentine (Chris got shafted since the other two I feel are more iconic). Stars from Resident Evil, a cornerstone for horror and action games. Also RE4 is probably top five games for GameCube so yeah.

 

[AirMac1]

Abstraining.

Noms:9-Volt x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Cranky old grandpa that needs to retire.
Chance: 5%
Want: Abstain

Sakurai has already stated that he thought of Heihachi, and said he was too difficult to program into Smash. Not sure if we're gonna get anymore fighting game characters after Ryu and Ken. I also don't care about this character whatsoever so I'm gonna abstain for want. Sorry for the short response, I don't have much to say about him at all.

Leon: 5.23%
Jill: 1.45%

Reaper x5