A Third Mario to match the Link, Young and Toon.
As said in the title, it isn't completely out of the question based on the design alone. In fact, I'd say that with Paper Mario getting 5 games under his belt and costarring in a 6th (Paper Jam), he is much more relevant in comparison to Toon Link who is only a variant of Link in Wind Waker. But, because I shouldn't be spending my time comparing him to meeting the criteria for other characters who are already in the game (admittedly either Young Link or Toon Link probably wouldn't be in the game if "Everyone is Here" wasn't the motto), let's talk about why his chances are... pretty bad as of now actually. Time and time again I will refer back to the spirits purging the chances of characters that are a part of it, but I am not completely doubtful; just that it substantially lowers the chances. And also Reggie's comments. So yeah. Extra points for not being a Mii Costume or an Assist Trophy...
Chance: 7.5%
Much more than Young Link or Toon Link or Dr. Mario, Paper Mario would play completely different from Mario, and very much so deserves representation besides a stage. That being said, I have begun to be discouraged for his chances, for the last thing that Nintendo probably is thinking for their third party DLC pack is to have a third Mario. Yet, I do value his uniqueness. Much like Saki, Ray, and Chibi, I have started setting my sights elsewhere for new characters that might have a shot at making the cut. Paper Mario is not one of them. He is one of the characters I am holding out for along with Bandana Dee, Dixie Kong, Impa and Karate Joe, and anything could happen. Easily one of my top picks before the 11/1 Direct, but he is spoiling pretty quickly with me, landing him at...
Want: 50%
The other four characters manage to keep their chances a bit higher due to not being based off of another character (debatable with Dixie, but she passes as unique and not Diddyette with me).
Nominations: Impa x4, Boss: Sans x1
Predictions Captain Toad: 0.86%
Predictions Toad: 0.46%