Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Mogisthelioma]

Banjo: 10%. The DLC was decided my Nintendo, and Microsoft does not like sharing things.
Want: 20%. I haven't played Banjo and Kazooie, and I've had enough of third parties, but It wouldn't be the end of the world if they got in. They'd be unique.

 

[PeridotGX]

Yooka-Laylee

Chance: 30%. His inclusion makes a little bit of sense in a vacuum. He's a fan favorite character (that isn't completely obscure), plus he was an icon for the N64 era. It's just when you weight in other Microsoft IPs is when their chances drop, adding Minecraft just makes more sense. And I doubt we'll get 2 Microsoft characters.

Want: Abstain

Nominations: Grovyle x5

 

[RileyXY1]

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 0%
With Nintendo choosing the DLC, the only they can get in is if the N64 Mini is announced, but that is not likely according to Reggie.

Want: 0%
I don't really care for them that much.

Nom: Kat & Ana x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Banjo
Chance: 15%
It's sadly looking more like Steve from Minycrafta will take away his spot. Banjo's chances are going to depend on wether Nintendo and Sakurai value their hardcore fans over that sweet dough. If the ballot gets looked at again it's not impossible for Nintendo to let Sakurai choose from both Banjo and Steve. From there it could go eitherway.

Want: 55%
Again, I haven't played any of their games. Yet I do think they deserve it. Also I want the Steveposting to stop.

Rayman: 42.47%

CGI trailers x5

Okay, guess I'll permanently be 5 noms behind everyone else for the sake of not breaking ''the rulse'' even though what I did didn't make me use more noms in total than I was supposed to.

Spoiler: huge image

I hope you understand, if I let everyone start using nominations because they forgot to another day, it would soon turn into chaos for me to verify.

 

[3DSNinja]

Banjo
Chance: 50%: 50/50 between him and Steve. They both have a good chance, but it's IMO a coin flip between them.
Want: 100%: They would be awesome. They could be very unique in their moveset.
Nominations: Hollow Knight x5, Mach Rider x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 25%
We can get more than one Microsoft rep, people. It's unprecedented, but it's not like anything else about Nintendo-led DLC isn't.

The whole problem with negotiating with your console competitor has always been the big problem keeping a perfectly-relevant part of the N64 era out of Smash. But if Sakurai himself doesn't seem to think it's worthwhile, then Nintendo's perspective is even lower--this is the company that allowed Rare to get bought off in the first place, making no attempt to keep them into their fold.

Still, when you consider that Minecraft has a good chance of showing up and say that it deconfirms Banjo-Kazooie, then you are really interpreting that scenario the wrong way. A Minecraft appearance would mean that Nintendo was willing to barter with Microsoft for the sake of...a meme-filled PC-born Western-developed casual game that isn't even a decade old. Compared to Banjo-Kazooie, those are some relatively light credentials.

If nothing else, Nintendo still has the ballot. They know who did the best on it. Hopefully, they even know how blisteringly fast Yooka-Laylee was funded, for an apparently-irrelevant genre.

Want: 100%
Come on, Sakurai, we just need one more inclusion to complete Nintendo history here. Maybe you put off B&K because it was easier to negotiate with Microsoft later rather than sooner, but this is one heck of a gamble, assuming Nintendo would care enough.


Preditction:
Rayman: 14%

Nominations
Papyrus x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Banjo-

Chance: 10%
Banjo is highly requested, but I still think him getting in would be pretty... Rare. If Sakurai had chosen the DLC then this would be way higher.

Want: 0%
I played Banjo Kazooie and didn't enjoy it at all. Really not sure why people liked it so much, probably just didn't age well. I'd much rather have a DK rep or some other rare character. As far as Microsoft goes, I'd much rather have Steve. Minecraft is at least a game I enjoyed playing.

Rayman prediction: 35%

Nominating entirely 1st party DLC x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Banjo and Kazooie

Chance - 15% - Banjo was popular in its heyday, but now is mostly a nostalgic memory to those who remember it. If they go after the nostalgia crowed, Banjo is one of the big names that they can bring out. However, considering the Microsoft Negotiations and how little we know about the current choices of DLC, it's hard to say with certainty if that's the type they are going for. Right now, that's a big "if' to me.

Want - 50% - I have no connection to the series and don't find them particularly interesting. That said, I really do understand the want for them, and don't mind their inclusion.

Prediction

Rayman - 35.46% - One of the more likely third parties, I think we can agree.

Nominations

Arle Nadja X5

 

[aarchak]

Banjo-Kazooie

Chance: 1%
I don't see it. It's a very dead series, and a third-party at that. Its only saving grace is that Banjo-Kazooie is apparently a classic, and very popular among the hardcore community at that. However, I still don't see any third-parties coming in for DLC.
Want: 0%
Unlike, well, EVERYONE I've heard from, I don't see the appeal in Banjo-Kazooie. I never grew up with them, and their gameplay just seems tedious and boring, with no real substantial reward. As for the characters, I don't see how they would make for an interesting moveset. I've seen a good amount of gameplay from the series, and I don't see anything interesting or unique they could use.

Nominations

Lora x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Banjo:
Chance: 8%
Microsoft. Minecraft is a bigger deal. Banjo got screwed with Nuts and Bolts too. That said, Banjo and Kazooie do have a big connection to Nintendo, but they'd be kinda crap for marketing sans more advertising that Microsoft and Nintendo are willing to work together.

Want: 30%
I should really want the bear and bird more since I'm British but tbh I've never much cared for Banjo in particular. I far prefer Dixie Kong for a Rare created character or Conker from their own IPs but I can appreciate the impact they had.

If they got in I'd be pleased but there's about five other third parties I'd prefer before him.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

BK64

Chance: 10%
Want: 20%

All of this depends on Nintendo now. Did they pick ballot winners, or are they going promotional? Is there an N64 classic or a bunch of retro rereleases? Or is the new blocky hotness going to overshadow things?

BK's been pretty well dead since Rare was bought out. Microsoft doesn't really seem to care about them at all, so I don't really see them getting anything for their dollar there. While Nintendo...also doesn't seem to care.

Banjo's always been popular though, so I can imagine they did well on the ballot. Still, as one of the few characters who has a ddecent fanbase but has not been spotted in any capacity, it does still seem encouraging. But there's also a huge block in their path - Microsoft, Nintendo, and the new fans all would probably prefer that Minecraft gets in first. Will Nintendo end up taking a second Microsoft character then? Especially with only 5 confirmed DLC slots?

I don't know what to feel about them honestly. The only BK game I played was Donkey Kong 64, so I don't know the characters at all. However, I can't say I'm opposed either. The only disappointment to me would be that they're not Tails or Dovahkiin, but I would otherwise be purely neutral.

Prediction for Rayman: 29.5%
Nom: more DLC x5

 

[11th]

Again, glad that I had a bit of this typed up in advance.


Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 8.33% (1/12) - I still have a feeling that we're getting a Microsoft character... I just can't say with 100% certainty which one out of the two front-runners. While Mr. Spencer has previously stated and earlier this year reconfirmed that he would be on board with Banjo & Kazooie getting into Smash, it's not really up to him. Nintendo is calling the shots, and they may not be interested in a third-party character from a currently dormant series despite their historical ties and any push from the ballot. The biggest threat to these two is Minecraft, though that idea generally isn't viewed fondly by Western Smash fans. Another issue is that Banjo & Kazooie aren't as big in Japan. The rumored N64 Classic was also recently shot down in an interview with Mr. Fils-Aime, knocking out any potential promotional reasons to include them. Still, there's nothing that completely counts them out at this time, and they're much better off than any Microsoft-exclusive characters, so I don't feel right giving them too low of a score.
Want: 10% - Would be nice to see them with the rest of the Nintendo 64 bunch again. Otherwise, I don't really have a strong opinion either way.


No noms, etc. etc. etc.

 

[Kotor]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 10%
Want: 25%

The Bear and Bird seemingly fell to obscurity with the public eye with only the hardcores keeping the dream alive. Like I said yesterday about Geno, someone more well known would make more sense. Steve would be the big one by bringing in an entire generation of kids that played Minecraft. Banjo would just bring in people in their 20s - 30s, a demographic who would most likely own a Switch and Smash. Despite growing up playing the first two games, I'm not blinded by nostalgia to think they deserve to be Smash.

Boss Kracko x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Backpack Bear

Chance: 40%
The fact that everyone's so readily giving up on the bear and bird because of Steve Freakin' Minecraft really goes to show how much faith this fanbase is willing to put in the company that makes their games. Really, people, you think the DLC's gonna be full-on marketing to the nonexistent impressionable consumer who enjoys being ****ed by corporations just because it wasn't picked by Daddy Sakurai? We've really regressed to the "MARKETING RELEVANCY $$$$$" era of pre-K. Rool speculation, haven't we? Call me crazy, but I doubt Nintendo would be so incredibly tone-deaf as to pass over a fan favorite who's been topping poll after poll for the past year or so and has heavy history on Nintendo hardware to the point of basically being a Nintendo character himself back in his heyday in favor of Steve the epic block man. And I am reasonably confident we'll be getting a Microsoft rep, given how friendly Nintendo's been with them recently. I just don't think it'll be Steve, quite frankly.

Want: 60%
Like I said the first time I rated these guys, I love a good underdog story. As someone who loves retro characters, hates dirty marketing picks, and fervently supports an irrelevant, third-party "literal who xD" who hasn't gotten any action in years due to office politics, seeing the Banjo fans get their wish would give me a warm fuzzy feeling that Nintendo at least somewhat knows what they're doing with this DLC and still cares about pleasing their fans more than pandering to the lowest common denominator. Plus, him getting in would likely mean Steve isn't getting in, and yes, please!

 

[Icedragonadam]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 50%. They still have a shot. And quite frankly I don't believe Hitagi right now, he's been flip flopping constantly around his "information". He's a popular character that's pretty much the most requested character on the internet. And of course the talks Phil Spencer had with Nintendo during E3.

Want: 100%. Alongside Lloyd, he's my other most wanted. I enjoyed the the Banjo games on the N64 when they were rented.

Nominate Concept: All DLC will be 3rd Party x5

 

[BravadoMan_13]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance - 40%
- I'd say they have a decent shot at DLC. They weren't shown with any role in the base game so far and haven't been spotted as a spirit. Unfortunately, his competition is Steve and it sucks that the Rare buyout has come to this. They have been requested since the Melee days and then the Microsoft acquisition of Rare severely hurt their chances for a long time until Phil Spencer's comment that he would be okay with them in Smash. Since it's the 20th anniversary of Banjo-Kazooie, Rare has done little in promoting their anniversary except figures. And Microsoft has been on friendly terms with Nintendo recently, but we'll see what happens as a result.

Want - 100%
- These are two are my dream pick to be in Smash. I have wanted them in Smash even back in the days of my childhood. Banjo-Kazooie and Banjo-Tooie were a big part of my childhood. They have a large pool of moves they have in the two games alone. They are among the top of my most wanted characters along with Waluigi and Dixie. I feel if the Microsoft thing never happened, they would have been in a long time ago would be shoe-ins. To me they are among the most deserving character yet to be in Smash. Plus in the days of the N64, they were marketed alongside Mario, DK, and Pikachu and they were big time in that era. To me, I can't really call them "third party". They will always be part of Nintendo.

 

[HardBoiledEgg21stCentury]

Banjo & Kazooie!

Chance - 65%
Banjo & Kazooie are one of the more well-known, classic video game characters appearing on the Nintendo 64. Banjo & Kazooie undoubtedly are popular, this increases their chances slightly with popularity. Of course popularity is an influence and occasionally Sakurai has been doing fan favorites so far. The sad part is that dlc is being chosen by Nintendo so that slims their chances by a little. Phil Spencer has also stated that he would like the inclusion of Banjo & Kazooie in the upcoming Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. Seeing as they haven't entered the base roster, they could have planned on making money by releasing them as DLC.

Want - 57%
Never had really owned or rented Banjo & Kazooie, I have however played the romhack and it wasn't anything too exciting. I do like the overall character design and I wont ignore the fact that it is a well known classic videogame character. I still will be very much so excited if they were to be included. Also I am not a newbie to the series and have watched a few gameplays of it, I favor more story sometimes than over gameplay. Conker from Conkers bad fur day is more of the rare representative that I would want, but I still do think Banjo & Kazooie will be a great inclusion for the roster.

 

[Calamitas]

Banjo & Kazooie, then.

Chance: 25%
Again, Nintendo picking the DLC hurts their chances. This is just a general thing for third-parties, especially with a series that is long since past its glory days.

Want: 0%
I know I'm really being quite negative with my recent want scores, but this is another of those cases that I don't have any history with. Collectathon platformers never really interested me that much beyond the Mario ones. And with B&K in particular, I just. . . don't really like the general look of the games, from a visual standpoint. The entire "slap googly eyes onto everything" is something that I find more unsettling than charming or endearing.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Throwing my hat back into the ring here for DLC. Sad I missed Bandana Waddle's and Geno's days though, I had some things I wanted to say on them.

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance - 5%

I don't really think we're going to be getting the bear and bird, based on statements made by leakers in the community, and how we'll be getting Steve instead. Looks like I was a bit of a prophet:

Steve is one of those characters I feel like people are really sleeping on, simply because they don't like the idea of him in Smash.

Minecraft is a huge series with a ton of worldwide appeal, clocking in at a whopping total of 144 million sales. He's had multiple games released on Nintendo platforms, receives a ton of attention in Japan, which is something nearly every western 3rd party character can't claim, and has even received attention from Sakurai himself, to the point where he actually bought the game twice, once on the Nintendo Switch, and another time on an unspecified console, due to how interesting he found the game to be:
The character of Steve himself is also no slouch. He's constantly featured across merchandising for the franchise, such as plush dolls, figurines, action figures, LEGO, you name it. Plus in Japan, he seems to be a relatively popular character request for a newcomer this time around, which once again, is something nearly unheard of for western 3rd parties.

Really, I'd say the only things holding him back is how he's a Microsoft owned character and how he isn't as iconic as the game itself or something like a Creeper. The first doesn't seem to be much of a problem considering both Microsoft's statements on Smash Bros., and the fact that the Wii U, Nintendo 3DS, and Switch versions of Minecraft exist in the first place, but you never know. The second could very well be a potential dealbreaker, but I'm not Sakurai. Steve is still very prominently featured across merchandising, but alas.

He's been a prominent and successful figure on Nintendo consoles, especially within Japan, is an extremely iconic character across the globe, and has received a good amount of attention from Sakurai himself. People are sleeping on him hardcore, simply because they don't want him in Smash.

Considering Nintendo was the one who chose the DLC this time around, it seems easily in their best interest to choose Steve and some Minecraft content over other Microsoft competitors, like Master Chief and of course, Banjo and Kazooie. Minecraft is a very hot topic for Nintendo right now, getting its own 2DS and being promoted as one of the Switch's biggest selling points this holiday season. (As seen here, scroll down to 'Game styles'). It also doesn't help that there's seemingly no plans for a N64 mini right now, meaning that there wouldn't be any real reason for Nintendo to push for Banjo.

Really, Banjo and Kazooie right now are just somewhat in a Geno situation to me. While he's easily the fan favorite of the possible picks from a certain third party, and he likely would've fared much better were Sakurai choosing DLC picks, there's very little reason for Nintendo to choose him over more marketable and relevant options.

However, there's always that chance that we get two Microsoft characters, one chosen for marketing purposes and another (in this case, Banjo) as somewhat of a bonus. Unlikely, but a possibility none the less.

Want - 90%

Currently my second most wanted newcomers (behind Karate Joe of the Rhythm Heaven series), I really do adore these two. Banjo-Kazooie and Banjo-Tooie are some of my absolute favorite games on the N64, and they're absolutely filled to the brim with the kind of love, care, and charm, you'd expect from any Nintendo game. These guys would fit in right in with their old friends in Smash, but I just don't think it's very likely.

A man can dream, though.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Bear & Bird:

Chance: 50% - I think we're getting either them or Steve?, due to credible leaker Vergeben saying there would be Minecraft content, and I can't imagine Minecraft only getting base-game Spirits and them not being shown off in the Direct when another new third-party, Shantae, was shown off. Of course Vergeben could be wrong this time, but I feel like Minecraft is highly likely, and maybe we could also get Banjo-Kazooie. While Microsoft and Nintendo don't seem to care about them much, Rare seems to still care at least with the new B&K merchandise that has come out this year, so maybe Microsoft actually does care some as well, at least when it comes to making money (Phil Spencer also said he'd like them; while he may say that about any character, he could just, y'know...say nothing, like other company people).

Want: 100% - I have known these characters and loved their game since I was 3 or 4 years old, and they're high on my list of favorites. While I would also be happy with Steve?, as I like Minecraft and think a playable character in Smash could be cool and maybe funny, Banjo-Kazooie making an appearance on a Nintendo game once again would be awesome to see (and I would like them before Steve? if I could make it happen).

Nominations:

Creeper x5

 

[Troykv]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 30%

Eh... their saving grace is being very popular and we knowing Microsoft would have some kind of involvement with Smash Bros... but this mostly benefits Minecract for obvious reasons; still, it's probably one of the figures that would actually kind of make sense to use despite don't having recency appeal.

Want: 50%

They're nice, I don't know how fun they would be in the actual practice, but well; let's the Banjo Fans do that job for me xD

_______

Predictions:

Rayman: 29.4%

Nominations:

Reimu Hakurei x5

 

[SPEN18]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 25%
Just like Geno the other day, part of me really wants to go higher, but recent events have not been in their favor. If Hitagi's right, then they're probably not in. If Hitagi and Verge are wrong, then we don't know that Microsoft is willing to dance for Smash. B&K are certainly in a very interesting position, but their massive popularity and significance to Nintendo's history cannot be discounted.

Want: 50%
Not a character I have a personal connection to, as I've never played their games. But they certainly have the credentials to be in Smash, they have a number of interesting abilities, and I'd be happy for the fans.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Banjo:

Chance 0.5%. I just don't see any Fan Favorites happening. Banjo's chances look particularly bleak because of one thing: Steve. The odds of Steve getting in are extremely high, so Steve is most likely going to steal Banjo's slot. Even if the Steve leaks are wrong, we don't know if Nintendo will be willing to go to Microsoft just for Banjo. Probably not, considering how they're gonna want to go mostly promotional.

Want 60%. Much like Geno, I don't care for Banjo. However, I acknowledge that many others do want Banjo. And as I said before, I'll consider even one fan favorite (even if they're not mine) getting in as a win for the DLC. And also, Banjo getting in would mean Steve wouldn't, which would mean Verge and Hitagi are done for, so almost Everyone would Win, as compared to the likely reality of almost no one winning.

Nomination: No Fan Favorites x5.

 

[thirsty-pocket]

Banjo:
Chance: 005%

Look, I was optimistic after Ridley and K. Rool. I thought the picks in Ultimate really were just going to be all the crowd pleasers that people have been requesting for years, I thought when they said Ultimate, they mean it, but Isabelle put the brakes on the Hype Train, and not just Ken and Incineroar, and even the Plant, but that whole final Direct completely completely derailed and wrecked the hype train for me, and brought me back down to earth. And it's looking especially glum after they announced that Nintendo is picking the DLC fighters and that there is no N64 classic coming up. I don't even dare to hope for him anymore, but I still want him.

Want: 100%
Yes I played the games as a kid, but to say that Nostalgia is the only reason I'd want him is extremely ignorant and reductive. Like, is Nostalgia the only thing that something has going for it the instant it fades into obscurity? Surely they never would have become popular in the first place if that was the case. Banjo and Kazooie are characters that are built for this game in a way most characters are not. You really have to puzzle and think outside the box to come up with movesets sometimes, but Banjo's movset potential writes itself.

They also happen to be, most likely, the only characters I can conceive of that would get me leaping out of my seat excited. Not even one of the other characters in my signature could do that.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Banjo:
Chance: 005%

Look, I was optimistic after Ridley and K. Rool. I thought the picks in Ultimate really were just going to be all the crowd pleasers that people have been requesting for years, I thought when they said Ultimate, they mean it, but Isabelle put the brakes on the Hype Train, and not just Ken and Incineroar, and even the Plant, but that whole final Direct completely completely derailed and wrecked the hype train for me, and brought me back down to earth. And it's looking especially glum after they announced that Nintendo is picking the DLC fighters and that there is no N64 classic coming up. I don't even dare to hope for him anymore, but I still want him.

Want: 100%
Yes I played the games as a kid, but to say that Nostalgia is the only reason I'd want him is extremely ignorant and reductive. Like, is Nostalgia the only thing that something has going for it the instant it fades into obscurity? Surely they never would have become popular in the first place if that was the case. Banjo and Kazooie are characters that are built for this game in a way most characters are not. You really have to puzzle and think outside the box to come up with movesets sometimes, but Banjo's movset potential writes itself.

They also happen to be, most likely, the only characters I can conceive of that would get me leaping out of my seat excited. Not even one of the other characters in my signature could do that.

This. If, like people claim, Banjo has nothing but nostalgia going for him, why is it that people who never played the game as kids or when it came out can still enjoy it?

 

[DaUsername]

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 20%
They're massively popular among the Smash fanbase and even the head of Xbox wants them in. What could possibly go wrong?
Well, aside from the facf that they also own Minecraft, one of the most successful games of all time. Plus, there's the fact that leakers are saying that MC content is in, but the person who said Steve was playable also backpedaled on Katalina, so who knows what could happen.
Want: 100%
I think they'd fit perfectly in Smash, and if it wasn't for the buyout they'd probably be in already.
I don't just want them in, I think they deserve to be in.

Rayman prediction: 40%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

 

[BlueMagician]

Banjo/Banjo and Kazooie:

Chance: 15%
I think they have a good chance to be chosen over other options if they're going to Microsoft. However, I'm not convinced we'll get anything from what Microsoft owns just because the two companies are cordial. Still, they do have the long time international fan request thing going for them.

Want: 22%
I have no personal attachment to the games or those in it, and 3D collect-a-thons were never my thing. I'm mainly interested in seeing them get their chance after so long, especially for people who were the most sad to see Rare be let go. And I'd choose the pair over the alternative MS choices, I guess.

Rayman predict%: 30%

Noms: Assist Trophy becomes a Fighter x5

 

[PrettyIvyPearls22]

Banjo & Kazooie
Chance: 20%
I do think they still have a very good shot to be chosen over some other options when you do limit Microsoft's options. Even with what Verge and his source is saying I'm not holding out hope on Microsoft, even if the companies are cordial with each other. They are still competing with each other. An N64 Classic isn't coming anytime soon even with the trademark being renewed, but as I usually say trademarks mean nothing!

Their only competition from Microsoft is a giant, and the only one that can stomp their chances, and its name is Minecraft Steve, and that can bring in the dough just as much as Banjo, if not maybe even more.

Want: 100%
With all that being said, I would LOVE Banjo Kazooie to be in this game! I was a big advocate for them back during Smash 4 DLC, they are practically perfect for Smash! Their moveset practically writes itself. They would have a ton to work and they have the credintials to be in Smash! If the buyout from Rare never happened these guys would've been in a long time ago. To me, they will always be seen as Nintendo, than Microsoft!

Prediction: Rayman-50%

Nominations: New Third Party from an Unrepped Company (Since we're doing Rayman)-2x

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Banjo & Kazooie

Chance: 5%
I actually don't see Banjo and Kazooie getting in Smash as DLC. As everyone stated here, Nintendo will most likely pick Steve from Minecraft over Banjo & Kazooie due to being more popular for the modern fans. Still, they have a decent support in the ballot and is certainly a classic character, but that only goes so far, especially since DLC is more on promotional characters. What's more is that Microsoft might not be willing to put their characters in Smash since they are direct competitors.

Want: 50%
I love these characters and as much as I wanted them in Smash, things aren't going well for the two. Still, they would fit very well in Smash and I wouldn't mind if Nintendo actually choose them over Steve.

Nominations:
3rd Party character from an unrepped company x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

One thing as a heads up.

Thanksgiving we will be not eating anything. We will be doing what we are thankful for w smash. Whether we do noms that day is tbd. I want people to have the time to spend with their families and friends that day, but have something in the thread still.

Now for the bear.


50% chance

Y’all are sleeping on this one. Minecraft content is not a death knell. I would say it bolsters it. If Nintendo is willing to work w Microsoft in adding something for modern fans, it means they are working with Microsoft. That alone is a huge boon. Now getting this alongside Minecraft is tricky. I view that we will lean more on third party characters this time, so big third parties get stronger scores. Banjo is bigger than Geno in the gaming world so that’s a boon.

100% want

Honestly an awesome character. Banjo Kazooie is probably in my top 5 n64 games. Tooie is not far behind. They would fit in so well with the big n’s cast. There is a reason they are loved.

Nominating Thrall x 5

Rate Rayman predict Steve

 

[Ridrool64]

YEAH! [record scratch]

Chance: 65%. Rayman has got something a lot of other characters, and potential third parties for that matter, don't: he's technically already been in Smash. But why wouldn't they bring him back as a Spirit...? Unless... of course, he's got some pretty good chances for DLC, short of a Mii Costume coming his way. Competition isn't a problem, since Rayman is more iconic and notable. The thing that keeps him lower is Brawlhalla, which might be a very bad sign if Nintendo makes sure there's a "no-competition clause" when it comes to third parties. Unless one exists, though, Rayman's doing well.

My formula for Rayman's chances is [90, - 25 from Brawlhalla and the possible existence of an NCC = 65%]. If there is an NCC, it becomes 90 - 90 = 0%.

EDIT: Apparently Rayman has a spirit. I'm taking his chances down to 40%.

Want: 65%. Rayman is now my most wanted that is not in my sig [in other words, he's my #6]. I love Rayman 2 and 3 to bits, hell I even enjoyed the Rayman Raving Rabbids games, and while I've never played them for a very long time Origins and Legends are really good. Aside from a Final Smash, I feel like he fits Smash Bros. like a glove (or, for him, a hand).

Steve will have a 90% chance as my prediction. [As an aside, I do look forward to rating Steve in regards to my want. Unlike Tails, I won't tax him in case he does block Banjo, though that may not be the case.]

Nominations: Arle Nadja x 5.

 

[FancySmash]

Rayman

Chance: 55%
I think Rayman has good chances for one of the third party characters. Seeing Rabbid Peach as a spirit in the game shows that Ubisoft is indeed connected, and let's not forget Rayman's trophy collection in Smash 4. I'm actually kind of surprised we haven't seen Rayman in the game yet. That said, Rayman also has competition. SE reps, Steve, Bandana Dee/Elma, yes sirree, quite the lineup ahead of him. That said, I could easily see him being one of the third parties we just don't know about.

Want: 90%
I've played very little Rayman games in my time, but from the very few I have played, I'm absolutely OK with seeing Rayman in Smash. I also feel kinda bad for him for getting some recognition in Smash 4, and even some recognition this time if spirits have more than just a Mario + Rabbids character. Rayman just has a certain charm to him that I'd like to see represented.

Prediction: Steve - So what kind of Minecraft content will we see? I'm willing to bet the character... 61.3%

Noms:
X2 Professor Hector
X3 Meowth

 

[Cetus]

Rayman

Chance-50%
I do suppose the Rabbids and Mario crossover means that Ubisoft and Nintendo are on good terms at least. And we haven't seen an assist or a spirit of Rayman thus far, which is kinda weird since he was a trophy in Sm4sh. I'd say it's a decent possibility.

Want-25%
Never really was into Rayman and his design, nor do I have any particular connection to him and his games.

 

[PK-remling Fire]

Rayman
Chance: 50%
Rayman, unlike other 3rd party characters, has less obstacles keeping him from smash, Nintendo and Ubisoft have been extremely chummy, and the rabbids have already been deconfirmed as spirits. Rayman just seems logical as a potential Ubisoft rep.

Want: 40%
I'm not a big fan of Rayman, but I can see his appeal and I wouldn't have too much of a problem with him getting in. I feel like he has decent moveset potential and enough personality to fit with the other smash characters.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Rayman
Chance: 50%
Ubisoft and Nintendo's relationship is extremely close at this point, given the success of games such as Mario + Rabbids and the Switch exclusive Star Fox content in Starlink: Battle for Atlas. It's also curious that we've seen Spirits from Mario + Rabbids, but no sign of Rayman himself so far. Hard to say if he's a Spirit in this game too, or if he's one of the ones Nintendo decided upon because of how swimmingly Nintendo and Ubisoft have been getting along recently.

Other than that, Rayman's got plenty of potential - his lack of limbs could lead to him having a long-range brawler type moveset that Spring Man could have taken, but outside of that he's also got the various abilities from his home games; Rayman 3 comes to my mind immediately, but there's plenty of other stuff he could draw on.

I'd say his biggest challenges so far is that he's much more obscure in Japan than in the West; if I remember correctly, Nintendo were the ones who published the Wii U version of Rayman Legends, so that may or may not be a deciding factor.

Want: 90%
Rayman's admittedly one of my dream wants for Smash Bros, and I'd love to see him if he were part of the DLC. I played Rayman 3 in my youth so I definitely know that Rayman's a capable fighter and could bring something new to Smash. He's one of my most wanted third parties for Smash alongside Doomguy at this point.

 

[Artix]

Rayman

Chance: 50%
With the appearance of the Rabbid Peach as a spirit and the fact that we haven't seen Rayman in any shape or form, I'd say he's more likely as DLC this time around. Nintendo and Ubisoft had such a good relationship nowadays, so I wouldn't be surprised if they actually put Rayman in Smash as their way to thank Ubisoft. Also, Rayman almost has nothing that would hinder it from being included in Smash, except from other third-party characters. However, it is still up to Nintendo whether they want to add Rayman in Smash or not, but with how good of a relationship they have with Ubisoft, I'd say they'll do it as a way of saying thanks to them.

Want: 100%
I would absolutely love it if they actually include Rayman in Smash. He's one of my most wanted third-party characters to appear in Smash, next to Jin and Saber. I have played a lot of Rayman games since childhood and I really loved those games since they are fun to play.

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5

 

[Sari]

Rayman

Chance: 55%
Rayman has a lot going for his inclusion in Smash. He is extremely popular (both by Smash requests and continuing game sales), had some trophies in SSB4, the recent Mario x Rabbids crossover game helped strengthen Nintendo's relationship with Ubisoft, and there is even a Rabbid spirit from said game in Ultimate. He also has just about no competition with other Ubisoft reps for a spot in Smash (unless they opt for Rabbids which would be the true dark timeline).

Want: 80%
I love the Rayman games and I think Rayman is long overdue to appear in Smash. Like Banjo, Rayman is one of those characters that would translate just perfectly into Smash.

Steve chance prediction: 63.88%

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Rayman (AAAAAAAAAHHH)

Chance: 60%
Ubisoft and Nintendo have been notoriously comfortable with one another to the point of basically being corporate bedfellows, so to speak, and I can easily see that partnership being rewarded with representation in Smash. Rayman's easily the choice on that front, considering he had a presence in Smash 4, albeit as a regular trophy, Ubisoft seems to be on board with the idea considering they sent Nintendo the Rayman model specifically to be used in Smash, and he has a decent following among Smash fans. There's also the matter of Rabbid Peach being a Spirit, meaning Ubisoft is already involved with Ultimate in some way, so Rayman has a disembodied foot in the door already. His lack of presence in the game as we know it is also suspicious knowing this, so if Rayman truly isn't in the base game in any form, then I'll be genuinely surprised if he doesn't end up being one of our DLC fighters.

Want: 55%
Eh, he's alright. I've never played any of his games, but I can't say he doesn't deserve to be in at this point, and his design seems like it could provide a unique and fun moveset. Really, it comes down to whether he's fun to play or not. I'd be glad for his fans, though.

Oh boy, we're talking about Steve tomorrow? I was hoping this day wouldn't come so soon, but I guess we're gonna get to see the full extent of this thread's pessimism tomorrow. What a treat.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Rayman

Chance - 40%

Seeing how the Donkey Kong DLC got an entire section on its own, Star Fox being in Starlink, and Ubisoft literally mentioning that all of this was only possible thanks to their "long-lasting relationship with Nintendo," I'm really starting to think that we may be seeing some a lot more Ubisoft stuff appear this time around [...]

Ubisoft and Nintendo have been on very friendly terms recently. Extremely very friendly terms.

Whether it be Mario + Rabbids being a huge success, Starlink crossing over with Star Fox, or Rabbid Peach and Rabbid Kong appearing as Spirits, not only is it extremely evident that both Nintendo and Ubisoft are more than willing to work together, but are also more than willing to work together in Smash. The complete lack of any Rayman Spirits, or anything else, such as music tracks, appearances as an Assist Trophy, etc., also kind of lead me to believe that he may just be pushed off into being DLC, although there are still many more spirits yet to be revealed.

Want - ABSTAIN

I like Rayman. While I'm not a huge Rayman fan or anything, he definitely has the qualifications to get in. I'll leave this score to people who have stronger feelings on him than I do. Let's hope that if we're getting a Ubisoft character, it'll be him and not the Rabbids.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Rayman
Chance: 65%
One of the likelier third-party characters. There's no doubt Rayman would be in the selection Nintendo made with them being buttbuddies with Ubisoft. He's also another character of who there hasn't been a spirit spotted so far. Shantae was shown as a spirit so why wouldn't Rayman? Especially since Ubisoft is already in with their Rabbid Spirits. It would be strange if he'd be completely absend from the game at all with his series getting three trophies last game. He also had a decent amount of support in the ballot, especially after the Omni leak, and even now his demand is strong. Only thing he has against him is Sakurai worrying the people from his home country will spout ''literally who?!''

Want: 99%
Yes please! He's my second most wanted character. He just fits right in with the cast. Me and my brothers have had great nostalgia for the Rayman games, Great escape and Arena specifically. And I hope Rayman in Smash could be the first steps to getting those games on the Switch.

Steve: 56.26%

CGI DLC trailers x5