Mii Costume
Now the big one...
Pinocchio
Chance: 35%
Want: 0%
Sakurai likes him, and he has a rabid fanbase. Sm4sh has shown third parties are a non-issue and he got the Mii costume, so he’s definitely visible.
But ugh, no thanks. At all.
I never understood all the support for him in the first place. A (i) third party (ii) one-off character who’s (iii) spin-off only from (iv) over twenty years ago (v) with no future who’s (vi) not exactly iconic. Any one of those points is used as a hit against other characters we’ve rated so far, so why is a character with all six better?
If Geno gets in above Daisy, that is just a royal **** you to Daisy fans. And feel free to replace “Daisy” with “Waluigi” for another Mario rep, “Midna” or “Skull-Kid” as one-offs who actually bothered to get a remake, or “Doomguy” or “Dovahkiin” for third parties whose games made immense impacts.
Geno’s one of those few characters I actively don’t want because he does hit all the criteria for irrelevance. There are too many characters I want who are denied by various arguments above, so someone with that many hits against him should not be considered a Nintendo All-Star because of nothing but a vocal fanbase. Give him a trophy in the next game and leave it at that.
Prediction for Isabelle: 29.6%
Nom: something from Skyrim x5
I’ll bump the chance up to 40%, but very begrudgingly. And I’d drop my want score if I could.
With the game seeming to be fanservicey, and with as rabid a fanbase as Geno has, it’s looking likely. Sakurai has even mentioned him by name, which he’s only done for one other character - Ridley.
Still, Geno is only known from a single spinoff twenty plus years ago, so we can’t assume that there’s some massive secret fanbase of teenagers who make up a silent majority like Bayonetta had. Geno hasn’t shown up in any other spinoffs, so nobody really knows him outside of Smash speculation circles. You’d think Nintendo would just buy the rights to Geno (not like Square’s using him) and start letting him show up in Mario Karts/Parties/etc so people would get a feel for him and his personality (which is an aspect not many people talk about)
We like to say that Waluigi is in a perfect place in the game since he’s never been in a main series game, only every other spinoff where he’s a walking meme. And Geno...was never in a main series game, only a single 22 year old spinoff where he wasn’t even the most important party member.
Not to mention that we’re hitting saturation on Mario characters (we already have one), and that third-parties need to be more strictly vetted. Bomberman gives a nice idea - stick him as an assist, and then we’re good.
But here’s the deal: I’ll support your one-off third-party from a 20-year-old cult classic if you manage to get in my one-off third-party from a 7-year-old triple-A megahit that proved Nintendo can play with the big boys. If I get a playable Dovahkiin, I’m rating everyone 90+in want. But until the roster is big enough for the Dragonborn, Geno’s place is not in the roster either.
New Chance (this DLC is it): 5%
New Chance (more DLC): 25%
Want: 0.00%
It's always fun when Geno comes up - it really shows how much of an echo chamber the Smash speculation scene is.
Here's the deal - Geno's game was over 20 years ago, and only got localized in Europe in 2008 (now 10 years ago). He didn't even bother to show up in the Mario/Squeenix crossovers. He is the definition of an obscure side character, and the only reason anyone talks about him is that he's got a fanbase. Why not Mallow? Same game, same impact, but there's nothing there.
People love to talk about Geno and how much Sakurai wanted him more than anyone else on the roster and that he's his absolute number one choice.
And we all reference the same article. Still, I don't see the Sakurai quote of "Oh, Geno is totes my favorite character ever, but those ****** at Square won't let me use him! Oh I wish upon everything that I could get him in!!!!!" It really sounds more like "It would have been fun, but it wouldn't work out so he's not in."
Now DLC of Geno would sell well...to the speculation scene (and Geno is divisive, so there's no guarantee that every Smash speculator would buy it). To the casual crowd...not likely. Especially if the Spirits don't even have infoboxes anymore, then people won't be able to figure out who he is or what games he's from. With the suits picking DLC, is it likely that they're going for an obscure character from an ancient cult classic game that has a small but dedicated following, or a groundbreaking guaranteed seller to the casual market (which is likely much bigger)?
Geno would have made a great assist so he gets acknowledged, and then we can learn more about him from his character description (again, assuming spirits get background info). True, we haven't seen a spirit yet, but the character icon is interesting - there probably is a spirit in game (notice the icon uses the same official render we see all the time...so Geno didn't get a new one. And with DLC already decided, it seems they're not going to promote people unless we get another DLC wave.
Yes, I have some bias against him. I don't know the game at all, and I'm a fan of the current Mario crowd in all of the spinoffs (
Waluigi
). Waluigi missing that is a bit annoying - I'm not a WAA superfan, but he does seem to be missing out as just an assist. Yes, PP getting in before him was funny since it was
so random. But Geno before Waluigi is just weird to me. Geno hits
every point that we've used to knock down characters before, so it does seem hypocritical when people champion him but deny most other characters because of various reasons.
But as I said before: if we get Dovahkiin, I will delightfully and unironically support Geno's addition. Until then? No thank you.
Banjo Prediction: 29.3%
Nom: More DLC x5
