It's Geno.
Chance: 35%
I'll readily admit that Geno's chances for DLC aren't as good as they were for base roster. Things were lining up perfectly for him back then, and to tell you the truth, I'm still kind of baffled we've only seen him as an outdated render slapped on an Online token. But we all forgot to consider one key thing when we were speculating for base roster: Square Enix loves DLC. The only Smash content we've seen from those guys so far has been as DLC, and that content has stayed the exact same going into Ultimate's base game. (We haven't seen the Geno or Chocobo Mii Costumes yet, to my knowledge, but considering the Chrom'stume is still there, I'm willing to assume they'll all be returning.) Clearly, Square is the type of company who won't lift a muscle for anyone else unless they're paid to do it, particularly in DLC royalties. Really, the Square character (Squaracter?) was always gonna be DLC all along no matter who they are; we just failed to realize this.
Now, people have been calling Nintendo's involvement with DLC the death knell to Geno's chances (or those of any fan favorite, for that matter, as if Nintendo's the most tone-deaf company in the industry, even though their track record for DLC has actually been pretty solid recently) since we first learned of it, but in my opinion, that couldn't be further from the truth. True, Sakurbias is a big thing Geno had going for him that's now basically out of the picture, and vile corporate interests are now more likely to come into play (looking at you, Steve), but this news actually hurts Geno's competition a lot more than it hurts Geno himself. Think about it; if you're Nintendo, and you want a Square Enix character to join your flagship crossover series as DLC, would your first choice be a Dragon Quest character who would be scarcely recognized outside of Japan and would come with his/her own web of legal complications, including dealing with an exceedingly ****** composer who's obscenely overprotective of his own work to the point of giving
MIDIs to the West instead of original tracks? I'd wager no. Would you jump for Sora, an admittedly iconic protagonist from a well-known series with a new title coming out... on every platform but your own, whose DLC royalties would also have to be split between
two money-hungry companies instead of just one, on top of additional licensing fees? Closer, but I'd still say no. How about Geno, a character who is notoriously highly requested even among casual fans, has Nintendo roots, and would be by far the cheapest and easiest to license, especially considering he's already in the game as a Mii Costume/Online icon/Spirit? Now we're getting somewhere.
Yes, I did just try to prove that Geno is the most economically sound Square Enix character for Nintendo to choose, and I'll inevitably be laughed out of the room by a sizable portion of the fanbase for saying it, but when I look at his competition, that's just how I see things. I'm not writing off Sora or
*insert Dragon Quest character here* as impossibilities, but I firmly believe that if Nintendo gets their way, they'll go for pretty much anyone but those two, especially the former. And they most certainly have not forgotten about Geno as much as people think they have;
this year's tweet recognizing Super Mario RPG's 22nd anniversary is proof of this. Sure, companies can say anything to please the masses, but the fact that they directly namedropped Geno (and Mallow), a character they don't even own who hasn't seen any action in decades, is at the very least an indication that they know people still care about him.
Really, the whole situation regarding Geno is suspicious. If Sakurai really knew Geno just wasn't gonna happen, why wouldn't he at least give us an Assist Trophy as a sort of "I tried" statement, so we can at least have our guy in the game in some physical form if the powers that be really just won't let him be playable for some reason? It sure as hell beats just putting him in as a Spirit and calling it a day; for a character who's been consistently one of the most requested for over 10 years, a .jpeg is
not a consolation prize. (And neither is a generic avatar wearing that character's clothes, for that matter.) I'm not gonna act a fool and say Geno's definitely coming, but either way, something stinks.
Want: 100%
Yep, it's this spiel again. Super Mario RPG was my first proper RPG (probably; my memories from back then are fuzzy), and for me, personally, the Geno for Smash movement has been less a vote for an "obscure party member from an RPG released 22 years ago" - *gag* - to be in a Smash Bros. game (though I certainly wouldn't still be here if I didn't love the idea) and more a plea to get that great game that introduced me and so many others to a genre we've come to adore the recognition it officially deserves. And if Geno doesn't get in as DLC, then frankly, nothing short of a full-scale revival of SMRPG as a series will be able to save him and I'm ready to accept that unfortunate reality should it come to pass.
Of course, ideally, Geno gets in, all the fans get their wish, and all the haters move on with their lives, as per usual. Seriously, how are people willing to complain about
Geno being too niche when we literally had a Piranha Plant waved in front of our faces just a few weeks back?
s inclusion just hit Genos chances hard don't think they will use a dlc for a third mario character 
